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Perfunctory Spanish regional election thread

by Migeru Mon Oct 22nd, 2012 at 01:42:42 AM EST

Sunday, 21 October, saw two simultaneous regional elections, in Galicia and in the Basque Country. The main result has been a collapse of the PSOE regional parties, conceding a larger absolute majority to the PP in Galicia, and second place in the Basque Country to EH-Bildu, the successor party of the ETA sympathiser parties that were illegal for the past decade, until ETA gave up a year ago.

El Pais: Popular Party to keep Galicia following a low-turnout race

  • PNV wins in Basque Country but without absolute majority
  • EH Bildu becomes second force in region
[editor's note, by Migeru] I don't have much time tonight so I'll post a results advance and I may promote information from the comments to the body of the diary if others pitch in.


Basque Country results

Being a much smaller region, the votes are already almost fully counted at 22h30, and they look like this:

The most important development is the emergence of left independentists EH-Bildu as the second largest party, and a strong nationalist majority (Christian Democrat Basque Nationalist PNV, plus EH-Bildu). Without seeing the actual numbers I suspect a big contributing factor is the fact that EH-Bildu voters would have cast null votes in previous elections as their party of choice would have been banned by the courts before the election. Actual voter transfers would have played a minor role. Already in the previous election, the then legal (explicitly condemning ETA's violence) left independentists Aralar had eaten the lunch of the local "united left" party EB party, as well as the PNV's centre-left splinter (form the late 80s) EA.

Official election results from the Basque regional government (in English).

Galicia

Update [2012-10-21 18:23:29 by Migeru]: The results below appear to indicate stable turnout, but 12-13% of the electorate is made up of emigrant voters (see comment thread) who tend to vote at a rate of about 25% and whose votes are not included in the count on election night. So one should expect a final vote rate of 59%, for 41% abstention.

In this case, the press talked about a low turnout, but the difference from last time was insignificant. The PP benefits from the low turnout as its electorate is more faithful, and hasn't punished the local party for austerity policies. The local Socialist party PSdG has lost 1/3 of its voters both to the local "united left" party AGE and to protest vote. Left nationalist party BNG also lost 1/3 of its vote.

Official election results from the Galician regional government.

Display:
Have at it.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Oct 21st, 2012 at 04:45:27 PM EST
Finding out that the "united left" AGE consists of the "united left" proper EU, and ANOVA which is a splinter party of the BNG, led by the BNGs historic leader Xose Manuel Beiras. So it's not at all surprising that they should take a big chunk of vote form the BNG. It's the PSdG loss of 1/3 of its vote that's unexpected.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Oct 21st, 2012 at 05:03:32 PM EST
Did the population of Galicia reduce significantly?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Oct 21st, 2012 at 05:30:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm thinking the vote numbers we see reflect the 95% ballot count vs. 100% results 4 years earlier. But still the total number of votes would have dropped slightly as 5% of the total number of electors is just 70 thousand...

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Oct 21st, 2012 at 05:36:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm already looking at the 98.07%-counted figures on the official site. Unless some truly giant election districts are still left...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Oct 21st, 2012 at 05:39:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
According to El Pais, voters + abstentions was 2.650 million in 2009, compared with 2.257 million (98% counted) in 2012. That's a 13% drop.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Oct 21st, 2012 at 05:41:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Must be the emigrant vote. Galicia has an unusually large proportion of voters from overseas. But I'm speculating here.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Oct 21st, 2012 at 05:52:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bingo
El voto emigrante gallego representa el 12% del electorado, unas 300.000 personas, 100.000 de ellas en Argentina, aunque su participación suele ser limitada, alrededor del 25%.
The Galician emigrant vote accounts for 12% of the electorate, some 300,000 people, 100,000 in Argentina, though their participation rate is limited, around 25%
That-s from 2009. They also say that they tend to vote for the incumbent.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Oct 21st, 2012 at 05:55:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Also, there are several relatively large and new dwarf parties that didn't make it. Which ones are BNG or PsdG splinters?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Oct 21st, 2012 at 05:44:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Eb - Escaños en Blanco - Blank seats, a protest vote for people who would like their none of the above black ballot choice to result in an empty seat. The people on the party list commit to not taking their seat if elected.

SCD - Sociedad Civil y Democracia - the personal political entity of bankster Mario Conde

CxG - Compromiso por Galicia - Commitment for Galicia is a BNG splinter, created at the same time as ANOVA.

PACMA - animal rights party.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Oct 21st, 2012 at 06:06:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Eb - Escaños en Blanco - Blank seats

Heh, that sounds like a candidate for the new big European trend after the Pirates...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Oct 21st, 2012 at 06:11:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Let's look at the Basque election results.

Null votes in 2009: 101K (8.8%)
Null votes in 2012: 9K (0.8%)

EH-Bildu in 2012: 277K (25%)
EH-Bildu in 2009: 101K (9.8%)

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Oct 21st, 2012 at 06:17:56 PM EST
This is going to be interesting.  Urkullu appears to be a moderate, meaning that he seems reticent to reopen the discussion on the independence referendum.

The final seat distribution, out of 75 (PNV 27, EH-Bildu 21, PSE-PSOE 16, PP 10, UPyD 1) suggests only that Urkullu faces a choice: pact with PSE-PSOE, or pact with EH-Bildu. Can Urkullu, and the PNV, afford to pact with PSE-PSOE? I doubt it.

With EH-Bildu back in the game after have been illegalized for so long, the PNV could face a real challenge, up to and including splintering if they don't support a referendum. I also doubt that Urkullu can avoid calling an independence referendum if Catalonia and Scotland are having that kind of fun in 2013-2014. And can the Spanish government really be seen to prevent a referendum in both regions when the British are allowing the Scots to vote?

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 21st, 2012 at 09:16:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Question: given that the social situation in Spain seems to be deteriorating, can someone explain the PP's preservation of electoral strength in Galicia?

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Sun Oct 21st, 2012 at 08:05:32 PM EST
The conventional wisdom is that Galicia has an older, rural demographic that tends to vote for the incumbent, and has bought Rajoy's claims that he will raise pensions with inflation next year despite everything. Also, the Galician government has relatively sound finances, with low debt.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Oct 21st, 2012 at 08:17:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Central government special attention might also help. In my sector, the high-speed line to Galicia is getting the largest single chunk of the rail investment funding for next year (23% of the total), although expected demand should be lower than on most of the other projects.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Oct 22nd, 2012 at 05:47:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Exactly.

And Adding to that, the retired people population is bigger that active population. The unemployed know that they have to emigrate, sooner or later, as do in Portugal, generation after generation.

by kukute on Mon Oct 22nd, 2012 at 06:46:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So Galicia also has a nationalist movement (ie anti federal Spain)? I thought it was mainly Catalunya and Basque Country.

Does most regions in Spain feature a nationalist party and if so is there a risk for a domino effect if one region becomes independent? How far is it reasonable to expect the dominos to fall?

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Mon Oct 22nd, 2012 at 06:28:42 AM EST
Wikipedia to the rescue:

The article lists electoral support for nationalist-regionalist parties at the regional level.

The Spanish parliament is more fragmented after the 2011 elections than at any time in the last decade. Regional parties in the national parliament come from Catalonia, Basque Country, Galicia, Canary Islands, Valencia, Asturias, Aragón and Navarra.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Oct 22nd, 2012 at 06:56:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If you want to really confuse them you'll explain that not only do the Basque Country and Catalonia have nationalist parties, but that Navarre and Valencia have their own regionalist parties in opposition to the dominant Basque and Catalan parties.

Yes, the Basques and Catalans claim regions that see themselves as distinct from not only Castilian dominated Spain, but those nationalist identities as well.

Fine mess, eh?

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Mon Oct 22nd, 2012 at 09:42:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's only a mess if you people decide that different identities imply an inability to have a common polity.

We had a little discussion of the politics sround the Valencian language recently.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Oct 22nd, 2012 at 09:47:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well..... I can't help thinking about this scene from Monty Python when discussing this whole situation.



And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Mon Oct 22nd, 2012 at 03:25:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I mean your people not you people, sorry.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Oct 22nd, 2012 at 03:46:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
«regions that see themselves as distinct»

Not really correct, what is is people in these regions that do not want to go with them, but other peoples disagree. In Navarre Bildu certainly and Nafarroa Bai possibly would see well a union with Euskadi. In València there a non trivial part of the electorate that would not dislike a greater coordination with Catalunya. The same can be said for Illes Balears (Balearic Islands), the main problem is the presence of a huge immigrant population from other parts of Spain.

res humą m'és alič

by Antoni Jaume on Mon Oct 22nd, 2012 at 03:47:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And who inherits the claim on Gibraltar?
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Mon Oct 22nd, 2012 at 10:15:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Spanish nationalists, I suppose, they're the ones who give a toss.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Oct 22nd, 2012 at 03:13:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Oct 22nd, 2012 at 04:14:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Surely the solution is for Spain to sell it to Germany? Take the money and let them deal with the squatters?
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Oct 22nd, 2012 at 05:05:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Usually we joke about Majorca. The number of German residents in 2011 was 36674, about a 3% of the total population. However I remember that a few years ago one German bought a property that represented 1% of the island ...

res humą m'és alič
by Antoni Jaume on Mon Oct 22nd, 2012 at 06:48:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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