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Lithuanian election 2012-II, briefly

by das monde Mon Oct 29th, 2012 at 04:43:12 AM EST

Lithuania had the second round of Seimas elections yesterday: run-off voting in individual constituencies. The Social Democrats had won 22 seats yesterday, and will be the largest party in the new parliament.

The first round voting took part and was discussed two weeks ago. The voter activity was much lower yesterday: 35.86%, down from 52.93% on October 14.

Here are the results:


Party
List vote
(Oct 14)
Seats
in Seimas
Prior run-off
chances
VotesShareTotal =Oct 14+Oct 28Likely+toss-up+underdog
Social Democrats 251,61018.37% 38 =15+1+22 9+13+6
The Homeland Union 206,59015.08% 33 =13+20 9+22+4
Darbo Partija 271,52019.82% 29 =17+1+11 5+18+12
Order And Justice 100,1207.31% 11 =6+5 2+4+1
The Liberal Movement 117,4768.57% 10 =7+3 2+4+0
The Polish minority party 79,8405.83% 8 =5+1+2 2+4+0
Drąsos Kelias 109,4487.99% 7 =7+0 0+4+5
The Peasants & Green Union 53,1413.88% 1 =0+1 0+2+0
The Center-Liberals 28,2632.06% 0 =0+0 0+0+2
Independents -- 3 =0+3 2+1+1

One constituency has no representative yet, because first round results there were declared invalid.

Darbo Partija was under pressure from numerous voter buy-off reports.


The government will be formed by the Social Democrats, Darbo Partija and Order & Justice. Here are the faces of the new coalition - Butkevičius, Paksas (O&J), Uspaskich:

Display:
The link to "the first round voting" actually goes to a 2008 thread -- which is useful, but I guess you meant to link this one.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Oct 29th, 2012 at 10:22:48 AM EST
[ET Moderation Technology™]

I edited that link, the table format too.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Oct 29th, 2012 at 11:18:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Dodo was faster. Thank you both for the correction.
by das monde on Mon Oct 29th, 2012 at 11:28:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks. So what does this mean: more or less austerity?


-----
sapere aude
by Number 6 on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 05:49:53 AM EST
Definitely less austerity. Maybe this coalition will deliberately try something different. It would be interesting to see EU reaction.

The big news yesterday was that the president Grybauskaite made a surprising statement (after a meeting with the LSDP leader Butkevičius) that Darbo Partija should not be taking part in government formation. For reasons, she cited the ongoing investigation of Darbo's shadow accounting during a previous election, and numerous voter buy-off reports. The condescending attitude of Grybauskaite and conservative, liberal leaders towards the new coalition is almost funny.

Formally, the president submits a prime-minister candidate for Seimas vote, so if she might block some government formations. The 3 parties responded by a plan to invite the Polish party and form a "constitutional" 60% majority, able to pose procedural threats. The popularity of Grybauskaite should definitely take a hit, I guess.

Soon after the election (and before the Grybauskaite statement), Uspaskich submitted a lengthy article on Lithuanian news portals, titled "The president does not listen to me, but she should listen to a Japanese economist". Thereby he refers to Richard Koo and his balance sheet recessions. If I would have time, I would write more on this. He criticizes heavily the out-going government for taking in more debt without tangible investments, that they include into their GDP statistics unproductive use of new credit and EU money. He even calls them Communist Government. His high hopes look Keynesian to me: just increase government spending and ease credit to small businesses...

by das monde on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 11:47:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What do you make of the stronger showing of the Social Democrats than what was indicated by your run-off chance forecast? Is Uspaskich frustrated?

About O&J: A platform may matter little with populists, but I still have to ask, did his platform/rhetoric shift to the left since the Paskas presidency on any subject? What ministries could Paksas get, and what damage could he wreak? (Or are the Darbo people more problematic?)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 06:28:37 AM EST
the run.off has worked in favour of the social democrats and even more the conservatives and disadvantaged labour.
by IM on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 06:45:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But the run-off gave The Homeland Union exactly the number of additional seats in the prediction quoted by dasmonde (9 likely + half of 22 toss-up = 20), while the Social Democrats could statistically count on 15.5 but got 22. Labour didn't lose that much: 11 instead of 14.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 08:48:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I should have made clear that I was looking at the percentages and the seats and their relationship.

On the predictions only the social democratic result was surprising, that is true.

percentages:

  1. Darbo Partija        19.82%
  2. Social Democrats    18.37%   
  3. The Homeland Union   15.08%   

Seats:

  1. Social Democrats      38
  2. The Homeland Union    33
  3. Darbo Partija     29
by IM on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 10:39:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The 2nd round shows that the Social Democrats have a more stable support. That support was not strong enough to take more candidates to the 2nd round, but it was more telling in the second round. They beat Darbo 13-3 in the run-offs, making all the difference between these two parties.

The 35.86% voter activity in the second round was considerably higher than 4 years ago (27.56%). So despite unattractiveness of choices (perhaps), more people took time to express their choice.

I saw a sign of dissatisfaction in Uspaskich, but he has other problems beside loosing the 2nd round - more on this later.

The party programs were a joke; most parties (including the Hoemland Union) posted them in the last month. Paksas was a prime-minister (twice) in 1999-2001 as a conservative, and his party campaigns looked vaguely nationalistic. But on current economic issues, Paksas indicated that he does not support the liberal-conservative solutions.

by das monde on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 11:14:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Are there geographical trends that favour one party or another?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 01:09:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The conservatives did very well in Vilnius and Kaunas this time, taking 15 out of 18 constituencies there. The 3rd city, Klaipeda, was won by conservatives and liberals. The countryside is overwhelmingly for LSDP or Darbo. Paksas has a pocket of support around native Telsiai in the Western part. Several constituencies are very consistent with electing the same party.

There are interactive maps here. Good look with deciphering.

by das monde on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 03:45:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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