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Tuesday Open Thread

by afew Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 12:28:14 PM EST

If you can't sing or play an instrument


Display:
it doesn't matter, just talk.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 12:28:43 PM EST
I can sing and can play an instrument, but people would prefer I didn't

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 12:51:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I sing better than I talk. Which is not saying much.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 12:52:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Gaaaawd, Ayrault is an eeeeediot!

He said the other day : well, the 35 hour week is up for negotiation, nothing is taboo, why not come back to 39 hours?

Logically enough, this provokes outrage, even among senior ministers of his government...

So today, it turns out to be a misunderstanding.

At this rate, he won't see the year out. And nobody will be sorry to see the door hit his arse.

The only problem is : all his possible replacements...

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 12:55:14 PM EST
Well, at least, if he's given the boots the odds of the new Nantes airport being cancelled go dramatically up, which would be quite a good thing, as long as Ayrault's replacement was not born in Catalonia.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 06:35:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Idea: With global warming causing what would previously have been considered as unusual disasters now becoming the "new normal," perhaps the best job to go for is as insurance adjuster. Apparently there are a bunch of them heading for NYC now--maybe they are a roving band that moves from tornadoes to wildfires to floods to blizzards--but in any case it looks like they might have pretty steady work going forward. I suppose there might be a lot of crying clients involved, which would be a negative point...
by asdf on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 01:16:03 PM EST
Like being a health insurance claim adjuster it seems more suited to a republican; crying clients are a perk of the job

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 01:19:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Debt Collector Allegedly Tells Disabled Vet 'You Should Have Died' After Illegally Seizing Savings | ThinkProgress
"If you would have served our country better you would not be a disabled veteran living off Social Security while the rest of us honest Americans work our ass off. Too bad; you should have died."


Now where are we going and what's with the handbasket?
by budr on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 03:17:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Holy shit.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 03:19:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Isn't that just special?

Now where are we going and what's with the handbasket?
by budr on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 05:39:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's the sort of quote that invites a group of vets to go around and pay him a visit

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 03:53:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One of these days our patriotic vets will realize that they've been had by the Repubs and their govt., and they'll take all their wonderful training and do something.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wp4O7v5320
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 05:34:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't wanna go there.

Now where are we going and what's with the handbasket?
by budr on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 05:40:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No they won't. Go to the school library and dig up a copy of Punch or the London Illustrated News from around 1970, and check out the RAF Benevolent Fund's ads begging people to "help the Battle of Britain disabled pilots." Soldiering has always been the job of the lower classes, who get suckered into it by the same patriotic nonsense that gets liars like Romney elected.

Did you see today that BOTH Chrysler and GM have come out openly saying that Romney's claims about auto company jobs going to China are complete BS? That's pretty amazing. And with Christie throwing him under the bus, it sure looks like the Republican establishment is having some serious last-minute doubts about their candidate...

by asdf on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 11:29:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think they had to speak out, they were getting a LOT of heat from the local media and from the unions so they had to go a long way against what Romney was saying to demonstrate it was untrue.

That will definitely settle Romney's lot in Ohio, it feeds into the narrative that he's more than just a normal political exaggerator and bender of truth; he's a liar, plain and simple.

But I'm worrying about the Sandy states, even if Obama's recovery efforts work, can voting take place in any meaningful sense before next Tuesday ?

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 03:49:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Roughly half of the votes in Colorado have already been cast, via the early voting system. I'm a slacker but plan to go to the mall later today to fill in my ballot...
by asdf on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 01:22:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
FWIW, veterans came home (and indeed voted from camps before coming home) and instituted the Attlee Labour government that brought us the NHS and various other bits of the welfare state...
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 06:56:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is a post-apocalyptic landscape fertile ground for litigation? (oh the poetry)

Lawyers absorb (or generate?) a frightening portion of US GDP. Surely they can add value to a hurricane.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 03:05:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Unless the damage estimates of 10 to 20 billion dollars are hopelessly underrated, Sandy won't even crack the top 10 of most costly hurricanes.

We have yet to see abnormal. Have a moment to reflect on that.

by Nomad on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 04:48:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We have yet to see abnormal.

Well... Sandy Is The Largest Hurricane To Ever Form In The The Atlantic Basin (10/30/2012)

Hurricane Sandy is officially listed as the largest hurricane to have formed in the Atlantic Basin, according to the National Hurricane Center, as it reached 1,000 miles in diameter.


I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 04:54:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My eyes generally glaze over the moment I see a headline with the adverb 'ever' in it. I get lost pondering about the billions of years of time of the earth and the universe, and start wondering about the moment the Atlantic Basin was created in the age dinosaurs roamed and how many tropical hurricanes it endured prior to the appearance of bipedal apes. It's all rather distracting.

Anyway, I was talking damage costs, not aspects of tropical cyclones. And I'm pretty sure we have no idea whether the size is to be considered abnormal. I'm also pretty sure people love speculating about it.

Further have a look at this and this.

by Nomad on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 06:33:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm surprised you're considering damage costs -- which arguably depend on the value of infrastructure under threat, the efficiency of crisis management and, to some extent, happenstance.

The question of whether Sandy is extraordinary calls for examination of the meteorological phenomenon alone. And bringing in the unknown unknowns of way-bygone eons invites us to conclude that climate science will never be able to settle any outstanding question.

Nomad:

I'm pretty sure we have no idea whether the size is to be considered abnormal

Then the jury will everlastingly be out...

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 06:53:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's hardly surprising that I talk damage costs when the starting topic was on insurance adjusters. That's related.

The question of whether Sandy is extraordinary calls for examination of the meteorological phenomenon alone.

Oh, you don't see me writing Sandy isn't extraordinary. It really is - based on the examination of the meteorological phenomenon.

However, I raised the topic on whether a late autumn hurricane this size can be considered abnormal. Different kettles of fish.

It doesn't mean either the jury will be 'everlastingly' out. (another word where my eyes glaze over, an interlude of supernovas, interstellar dust and plate tectonics briefly passing the mind.)

Just not yet. Again, discussion on climate change are not about one or two occurrences of a particular weather phenomenon, but what significant changes can be perceived from examining weather phenomena during 30-years periods - at minimum. That fact-based approach is just not very sexy.

by Nomad on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 09:05:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Even if the size of the storm has nothing to do with climate change, the amount of damage will be higher is sea levels are higher to begin with.
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 09:13:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hurricane formation depends nonlinearly on ocean surface temperature.
In most situations, water temperatures of at least 26.5 °C (79.7 °F) are needed down to a depth of at least 50 m (160 ft)
So global warming has a direct impact from temperature more than from sea level which is indirect.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 09:36:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
that there is any acceptable proof of actual increased hurricane activity driven by global warming.

By analogy : we know that CO2 has a greenhouse effect, and there is firm evidence of temperature increase which correlates with CO2 increase, as expected.

So, we know that increased ocean temperatures can be expected to increase the number and/or intensity of hurricanes. But this is not proven.

Intuitively, all else being equal, any given hurricane will be more intense if the ocean is warmer. But what triggers the formation of hurricanes is poorly understood, and may or may not correlate with global-warming-related phenomena.

So we will probably never "know" (in our lifetimes).

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 09:47:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, you could establish that the average temperature of the Gulf of Mexico has increased by 1 degree, or that you can consistently find temperatures above 26C during months where that didn't use to be the case. That should correlate with increased hurricane activity according to the models.

That doesn't mean that the models can put out a distribution of likely numbers and sizes of hurricanes in a season (I don't think), or that increased ocean temperatures have a link to anthropogenic CO2.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 09:53:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
what triggers the formation of hurricanes is poorly understood

Well, I'm happy with the idea that large, stable masses of warm water will generate ascending columns of water vapour which will expand horizontally, which should generate rotation by Coriolis' effect. And that if the process is sustained over a long period of time an actual eye may form.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 10:14:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
appears a regular distraction for you. It gets rather annoying.

What I take as my basic guideline, which I hope is also the preferable guideline for the fact-based community, is scientific consensus. And the scientific consensus up until now is rather specific in not having acceptable proof of actual increased tropical cyclones driven by global warming. See my response to afew for the links.

Actually, plenty of modelers predict the exact opposite effect of global warming on hurricanes: fewer tropical cyclones (lower frequency), but a bigger chance that they result in more destructive ones (higher intensity).

by Nomad on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 06:13:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
_ fewer tropical cyclones (lower frequency), but a bigger chance that they result in more destructive ones (higher intensity)_

Because larger events drain more energy from the warm ocean surface, which then takes longer to become 'primed' again for generating a cyclone?

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 06:55:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nothing so 'simple'...

From the SREX report (p. 162):


While detection of long-term past increases in tropical cyclone activity
is complicated by data quality and signal-to-noise issues (as stated
above), theory (Emanuel, 1987) and idealized dynamical models
(Knutson and Tuleya, 2004) both predict increases in tropical cyclone
intensity under greenhouse warming. Recent simulations with highresolution
dynamical models (Oouchi et al., 2006; Bengtsson et al., 2007;
Gualdi et al., 2008; Knutson et al., 2008; Sugi et al., 2009; Bender et al.,
2010) and statistical-dynamical models (Emanuel, 2007) consistently
find that greenhouse warming causes tropical cyclone intensity to shift
toward stronger storms by the end of the 21st century (2 to 11% increase
in mean maximum wind speed globally). These and other models also
consistently project little change or a reduction in overall tropical
cyclone frequency (e.g., Gualdi et al., 2008; Sugi et al., 2009; Murakami
et al., 2011), but with an accompanying substantial fractional increase
in the frequency of the strongest storms and increased precipitation
rates (in the models for which these metrics were examined). Current
models project changes in overall global frequency ranging from a
decrease of 6 to 34% by the late 21st century (Knutson et al., 2010). The
downscaling experiments of Bender et al. (2010) - which use an 18-
model ensemble-mean of CMIP3 simulations to nudge a high-resolution
dynamical model (Knutson et al., 2008) that is then used to initialize a
very high-resolution dynamical model - project a 28% reduction in the
overall frequency of Atlantic storms and an 80% increase in the frequency
of Saffir-Simpson category 4 and 5 Atlantic hurricanes over the next 80
years (A1B scenario).

The projected decreases in global tropical cyclone frequency may be due
to increases in vertical wind shear (Vecchi and Soden, 2007c; Zhao et
al., 2009; Bender et al., 2010), a weakening of the tropical circulation
(Sugi et al., 2002; Bengtsson et al., 2007) associated with a decrease in
the upward mass flux accompanying deep convection (Held and Soden,
2006), or an increase in the saturation deficit of the middle troposphere
(Emanuel et al., 2008). For individual basins, there is much more
uncertainty in projections of tropical cyclone frequency, with changes of
up to ±50% or more projected by various models (Knutson et al., 2010).
When projected SST changes are considered in the absence of projected
radiative forcing changes, Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone frequency
has been found to increase (Wehner et al., 2010), which is congruent
with the hypothesis that SST changes alone do not capture the relevant
physical mechanisms controlling tropical cyclogenesis (e.g., Emanuel,
2010).

Also see this post of JeffMasters on the wind shear aspect.

by Nomad on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 07:37:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not looking for anything sexy, and I know the discussion began on damage costs. Which didn't oblige you to continue with that without saying it wasn't what really mattered.

As for quibbles on "extraordinary" and "abnormal", well, pfff....

I respect your position on "extreme weather events" and climate change, and I'm far from thinking I know what there is to be knowed. But when you diss Migeru's point about the diameter of Sandy by citing the faroff lost eons, then say the "fact-based approach" is to ask "what significant changes can be perceived from examining weather phenomena during 30-years periods", you're not convincing me.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 09:18:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Was just having some fun with dissing adverbs, is all - not with Mig's point. Having studied earth sciences does that kind of deformation to a person. Sorry if it was distracting you from the serious side of the post.

Most of that, was already posted, here:

Nomad:

I refer you to this Nature paper from 2010, about which I wrote in this diary. And there is SREX (pdf, 31 MB), which writes, amongst many other subjects:


The uncertainties in the historical tropical cyclone records, the incomplete understanding of the physical mechanisms linking tropical cyclone metrics to climate change, and the degree of tropical cyclone variability provide
only low confidence for the attribution of any detectable changes in tropical cyclone activity to anthropogenic influences. Attribution of single extreme events to anthropogenic climate change is challenging.

by Nomad on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 11:53:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't know, but I suspect that the question of
whether a late autumn hurricane this size can be considered abnormal

will never be determined to your satisfaction. After all, there isn't a big enough sample size to obtain a significant result. And I hope there never will be.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 09:31:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
it's all relative... what i'm getting from between nomad's lines is that this was a small 'event', compared to some that could happen.
when one's mind is trained to peruse and consider creation of planets, tectonic collisions and epochally epic stuff, then a 4m storm surge and a bunch of temporary urban flooding is really not a big deal.

what this storm hopefully will communicate to jes' plain folks is a. what shitty house design is and b. how the present electric grid setup is fatally vulnerable to 'external' events.

oh, and c. how much of their utility bills $ were poisoning the environment to then be wasted heating inefficient dwellings.

this storm's aftermath should bring down unemployment, silver lining being that the new constructions can be much more thermically intelligent.

in hawaii after hurricane IWA there were t-shirts with 'i survived hurricane IWA' on them.

one day i saw a carpenter friend with one saying ' i survived because of hurricane IWA!'

It's a fine line between homage, parody, and consumer opportunism. Jess Walter

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 10:24:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Humans can sort of do cause and effect on small local scales, but may not be designed to do cause and effect on planetary scales - not when the cause and effect maps directly and personally to their own lives.

It's fairly obvious to rational people that poisoning the biosphere and making your own planet more difficult to survive on is a bad idea.

But it seems to me that this is another example of the difference between progressive long sight and conservative myopia. As usual, if conservatives cannot see that something benefits them personally in an immediate and obvious way they have no interest in it. If the immediate short-term effect on them is negative - higher taxes, whatever - they cannot see that the long term effect can be beneficial.

Narrow self-interest turns out to be an incredibly stupid and ineffective way to manage a civilisation. But we're stuck with the morons for now, so there it is.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 10:32:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]


It's a fine line between homage, parody, and consumer opportunism. Jess Walter
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 09:41:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
After all, there isn't a big enough sample size to obtain a significant result.

Now if the press and climate enthusiasts would write such lines, you won't hear my grumbles about science findings and consensus.

Hurricanes are huge, spectacular, people are fascinated by them and a warmer world affects them (although models differ to what degree). They would form an excellent poster-boy for illustrating climate change - except that they are hopelessly difficult to tie to a warming climate on science grounds at present.

And to be perfectly clear, just because there is no clear established evidence, it shouldn't stop us from mitigating GHG exhausts.

by Nomad on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 10:30:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
that the correlation will never be determined to your satisfaction? Sort of by definition?

It's just that it sort of puts your scientific grumblings into perspective...

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 10:45:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What is the specific claim supposedly being tested here?

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 10:57:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I suppose it starts with this, from Nomad :

However, I raised the topic on whether a late autumn hurricane this size can be considered abnormal.

Which implicitly segues into earlier discussion as to whether global warming can be demonstrated to increase hurricane frequency and intensity in the north Atlantic.

My position is there is probably nothing abnormal about such a late autumn hurricane... given current ocean temperatures. But what I think Nomad's question is whether this storm is abnormal compared to late-autumn storms previous to, say, thirty years ago. And this is where I say there will never be enough data points to judge.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 11:03:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Will I don't know.

First there's asdf:

global warming causing what would previously have been considered as unusual disasters now becoming the "new normal,"
Then Nomad
Unless the damage estimates of 10 to 20 billion dollars are hopelessly underrated, Sandy won't even crack the top 10 of most costly hurricanes.
Then myself
Hurricane Sandy is officially listed as the largest hurricane to have formed in the Atlantic Basin, according to the National Hurricane Center, as it reached 1,000 miles in diameter.
Then Nomad
you don't see me writing Sandy isn't extraordinary. It really is - based on the examination of the meteorological phenomenon.

However, I raised the topic on whether a late autumn hurricane this size can be considered abnormal.

Then you
there isn't a big enough sample size to obtain a significant result
you
nomad doesn't accept that there is any acceptable proof of actual increased hurricane activity driven by global warming.
(what's the proof that there is and Nomad doesn't accept?)

Some of these claims can be made precise, and tested statistically (for instance, against a complete list of named hurricanes, which would span many decades already). What is the precise claim, and what is the evidence or proof that Nomad isn't accepting?

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 11:20:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From Wikipedia: Number of tropical storms and hurricanes per season
The series spans 160 years already!

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 11:32:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Either such correlation will be determined, or it won't. Right now, the science says it hasn't been. That's all.

It's not about what I think, or prefer. With climate science, that's an imminent pitfall. I've learned that through the years.

What I personally want is a government that steps up to the plate based on the science consensus. As I've written here often, that consensus is scary enough.

by Nomad on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 11:03:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Unless it's a particularly spectacular hoax, George Lucas has sold Lucasarts to Disney for $4billion, and Disney will produce the first new star wars film in 2015, they plan one every 3 years

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 05:05:34 PM EST
Thinking that Pixar started off as a spinoff from Lucasfilm. Now they're reunited under Disney.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 05:07:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
These aren't the movie studios you're looking for..

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
by Bernard on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 05:48:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Simba, I Am Your Father.

   --  Indiana Jones

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 06:23:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Active and passive women - a decisive moment

Often these are bits of serendipity. I was happy with the composition - C-C taking over the Riviera, exploiting a passive image of women. Then I heard a skateboarder coming from behind me and just got them at the right moment - and I think it's the first female skateboarder I remember having seen !

chateau-pin-up-skateboard-girl-nice-0096

Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.

by Ted Welch (tedwelch-at-mac-dot-com) on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 05:05:53 PM EST
Regularly see one or two getting on the bus with skateboards and wool caps. Didn't realise young people today did it anymore, with their rollerblades and their loud music and things.


-----
sapere aude
by Number 6 on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 05:35:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Expect to see more of that once Willard gets in. It'll be ALL FOX, ALL THE TIME!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wp4O7v5320
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 06:34:34 PM EST
Is that hurricane related or just paranoia kicking in ?

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 03:43:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Democracy Now!
!Technical Alert

Blackout Conditions at Democracy Now!

Democracy Now! broadcast under extremely limited power today as we, and much of New York City, are without electricity after Superstorm Sandy pounded the East Coast. Click on the segments below to see our in depth look at this historic extreme weather, the damage it caused to nuclear reactors on the East Coast, and the role of climate change.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 03:54:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
BBC News - Viewpoint: Manuel Castells on the rise of alternative economic cultures
"What we are not going to see is the economic collapse per se because societies cannot work in a social vacuum. If the economic institutions don't work, if the financial institutions don't work, the power relations that exist in society change the financial system in ways favoured to the financial system and it doesn't collapse. People collapse, not the financial system.

"The notion is the banks are going to be alright, we are not going to be alright. So there is a cultural change. A big one. Total distrust in the institutions of finance and politics.

"It's a society where the main activities in which people are engaged are organised fundamentally in networks, rather than in vertical organisations.

"The difference is very simple - network technologies. It's not the same thing to be constantly interactive at the speed of light than just simply have a network of friends and people.

"So all networks exist, but the connection between everything and everything - be it financial markets, politics, culture, media, communications, etc - that's new because of the new digital technologies."

"All this together is not going to be a great electoral coalition, is not going to be any new party, any new anything. It's simply society against the state and against the financial institutions - not against capitalism, by the way - against financial institutions, which is different.

"With this climate what happens is that more and more our societies will become ungovernable and, therefore, we can have all kinds of phenomenon - some of them very dangerous.



Now where are we going and what's with the handbasket?
by budr on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 06:55:17 AM EST
As the European Council said (but didn't mean): We affirm that it is imperative to break the vicious circle between banks and sovereigns

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 07:13:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"They are economic practices but they don't have a for-profit motivation - such as barter networks; such as social currencies; co-operatives; self-management; agricultural networks; helping each other simply in terms of wanting to be together; networks of providing services for free to others in the expectation that someone will also provide to you. All this exists and it's expanding throughout the world."
This has always existed. Maybe what we're seeing is a reversal or at least a slowing down of the monetization and commodification of social relations, which has been a key driver of the development of capitalist economies for the past 200+ years, but is in fact a much older process.

David Graeber in Debt has some interesting ideas about what characterised the middle ages from the point of view of economic and social relations, which resonate with what Castells is saying.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 07:23:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Wikipedia will do: Debt: The First 5000 Years
When the great empires in Rome and India collapsed, the resulting creation of a checkerboard of small kingdoms and republics saw the gradual decline in standing armies and cities, as well as the settlement of the lower classes through various hierarchical caste systems, the retreat of gold and silver to the temples and the abolition of slavery. Although hard currency was no longer used in everyday life, its use as a unit of account and credit continued in medieval Europe, against popular claims among economists that the Middle Ages somehow saw the economy "revert to barter". In fact, it was during the Middle Ages that more sophisticated financial institutions like promissory notes and paper money (in China, where the empire managed to survive the collapse observed elsewhere), letters of credit and cheques (in the Islamic world) developed and spread. According to Graeber, it was the Islamic "western" tradition of free market and commerce outside of governmental intervention that inspired the original formulation of Adam Smith, whose writing seems to repeat ipsis litteris the words of Persian scholars like Al-Tusi and Al-Ghazali.

It took the emergence of the Atlantic slave trade and the massive amounts of gold and silver extracted from the Americas - most of which ended up in the far East, specially China - to see the reemergence of the bullion economy and large scale military violence. All of which, according to Graeber, directly inter-wined with the earlier expansion of the Italian mercantile city-states as centers of finance that defied the church ban on usury and led to the age of the great capitalist empires that endured and prospered for the next 500 years. As the new continent opened new possibilities for gain, it also created a new area for adventurous militarism backed by debts that required the economic exploitation of the Amerindian and, later, West African populations. As it did, cities again flourished in the European continent and capitalism advanced to encompass larger areas of the globe when European trade companies and military outposts disrupted local markets and pushed for colonial monopolies.

This age would have come to an end with the abandonment of the gold standard by the U.S. government in 1971 and a return to credit money, opening up uncertainties and possibilities yet unclear as the dollar stands as the world currency largely based in its capacity to multiply itself through debts and deficits as long as the United States maintains its status as the world only military power and client states are eager to pay seignorage for its government bonds. By comparing the evolution of debt in our times to other historical eras and different societies, the author suggests that modern debt crises are not the inevitable product of history and may be changed.

Are we evolving into a "new middle ages" based on social credit?

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 07:41:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Perhaps we are, though these days our caste is defined not by what fiefdom we were born in but by our credit score, and the bullion is retreating to temples not in Rome but in New York and London and Zurich.

Now where are we going and what's with the handbasket?
by budr on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 09:43:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
True enough.  

Maybe what we're seeing is a reversal or at least a slowing down of the monetization and commodification of social relations

Maybe not so much reversal or slowing down as bypassing or superseding. The monetization and commodification are still going on at a break neck pace.  Pay with cash at the local box store and watch the teenager at the register struggle to count out your change.  Or wave your iDroid at the register and walk through almost without slowing down.

The growth of social media in some sense recreates the agora and the village square literally on a global scale, bypassing all that.  For you and I to even have this conversation would have been all but impossible a generation ago.

networks of providing services for free to others in the expectation that someone will also provide to you

The very definition of the open source movement.  Geeks Hackers People from every corner of the globe collaborating very nearly in real time to create something that rivals the very best efforts of Apple and Microsoft, motivated by nothing more than the shared sense of discovery and creation. And FOSS has been a model for any number of similar networks for every purpose under the sun.

Now where are we going and what's with the handbasket?

by budr on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 10:37:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Or wave your iDroid at the register and walk through almost without slowing down.

That assumes there's someone clever enough around to design an iDroid and make a payment system that works.

If most people are effectively illiterate and innumerate - which is arguably already the case in the US - iDroid's won't save you.

FOSS has been a model for any number of similar networks for every purpose under the sun.

FOSS is mostly about obsessive coders and peer status. Its ability to deliver useful technology to non-developers is very mixed. There have been some obvious wins, especially on the web and in web technology. And some miserable failures too.

I don't think FOSS is really about sharing for the sake of it, or ever has been.

It would be interesting to create a post-GPL licence which made it explicit that code was pooled, public and non-personal - as opposed to the various copyleft licences which start with personal ownership and relax the distribution terms - and see how well it worked in practice.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 10:54:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
FOSS is good at delivering what a small team of developers want, with a larger group finding bugs in that code. If the "vision" is clear, the result could be good. If not, it's a hobby until something more interesting comes along.

It's one (large or small) part of the puzzle and doesn't address commercial applications, infrastructure, hardware, contracts, support ...

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sapere aude

by Number 6 on Wed Oct 31st, 2012 at 11:37:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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