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by afew Tue Oct 30th, 2012 at 12:28:14 PM EST
He said the other day : well, the 35 hour week is up for negotiation, nothing is taboo, why not come back to 39 hours?
Logically enough, this provokes outrage, even among senior ministers of his government...
So today, it turns out to be a misunderstanding.
At this rate, he won't see the year out. And nobody will be sorry to see the door hit his arse.
The only problem is : all his possible replacements... It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
"If you would have served our country better you would not be a disabled veteran living off Social Security while the rest of us honest Americans work our ass off. Too bad; you should have died."
Did you see today that BOTH Chrysler and GM have come out openly saying that Romney's claims about auto company jobs going to China are complete BS? That's pretty amazing. And with Christie throwing him under the bus, it sure looks like the Republican establishment is having some serious last-minute doubts about their candidate...
That will definitely settle Romney's lot in Ohio, it feeds into the narrative that he's more than just a normal political exaggerator and bender of truth; he's a liar, plain and simple.
But I'm worrying about the Sandy states, even if Obama's recovery efforts work, can voting take place in any meaningful sense before next Tuesday ? keep to the Fen Causeway
Lawyers absorb (or generate?) a frightening portion of US GDP. Surely they can add value to a hurricane. It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
We have yet to see abnormal. Have a moment to reflect on that.
Well... Sandy Is The Largest Hurricane To Ever Form In The The Atlantic Basin (10/30/2012)
Hurricane Sandy is officially listed as the largest hurricane to have formed in the Atlantic Basin, according to the National Hurricane Center, as it reached 1,000 miles in diameter.
Anyway, I was talking damage costs, not aspects of tropical cyclones. And I'm pretty sure we have no idea whether the size is to be considered abnormal. I'm also pretty sure people love speculating about it.
Further have a look at this and this.
The question of whether Sandy is extraordinary calls for examination of the meteorological phenomenon alone. And bringing in the unknown unknowns of way-bygone eons invites us to conclude that climate science will never be able to settle any outstanding question.
Nomad:
I'm pretty sure we have no idea whether the size is to be considered abnormal
Then the jury will everlastingly be out...
The question of whether Sandy is extraordinary calls for examination of the meteorological phenomenon alone.
Oh, you don't see me writing Sandy isn't extraordinary. It really is - based on the examination of the meteorological phenomenon.
However, I raised the topic on whether a late autumn hurricane this size can be considered abnormal. Different kettles of fish.
It doesn't mean either the jury will be 'everlastingly' out. (another word where my eyes glaze over, an interlude of supernovas, interstellar dust and plate tectonics briefly passing the mind.)
Just not yet. Again, discussion on climate change are not about one or two occurrences of a particular weather phenomenon, but what significant changes can be perceived from examining weather phenomena during 30-years periods - at minimum. That fact-based approach is just not very sexy.
In most situations, water temperatures of at least 26.5 °C (79.7 °F) are needed down to a depth of at least 50 m (160 ft)
By analogy : we know that CO2 has a greenhouse effect, and there is firm evidence of temperature increase which correlates with CO2 increase, as expected.
So, we know that increased ocean temperatures can be expected to increase the number and/or intensity of hurricanes. But this is not proven.
Intuitively, all else being equal, any given hurricane will be more intense if the ocean is warmer. But what triggers the formation of hurricanes is poorly understood, and may or may not correlate with global-warming-related phenomena.
So we will probably never "know" (in our lifetimes). It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
That doesn't mean that the models can put out a distribution of likely numbers and sizes of hurricanes in a season (I don't think), or that increased ocean temperatures have a link to anthropogenic CO2. I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
Well, I'm happy with the idea that large, stable masses of warm water will generate ascending columns of water vapour which will expand horizontally, which should generate rotation by Coriolis' effect. And that if the process is sustained over a long period of time an actual eye may form. I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
What I take as my basic guideline, which I hope is also the preferable guideline for the fact-based community, is scientific consensus. And the scientific consensus up until now is rather specific in not having acceptable proof of actual increased tropical cyclones driven by global warming. See my response to afew for the links.
Actually, plenty of modelers predict the exact opposite effect of global warming on hurricanes: fewer tropical cyclones (lower frequency), but a bigger chance that they result in more destructive ones (higher intensity).
Because larger events drain more energy from the warm ocean surface, which then takes longer to become 'primed' again for generating a cyclone? I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
From the SREX report (p. 162):
While detection of long-term past increases in tropical cyclone activity is complicated by data quality and signal-to-noise issues (as stated above), theory (Emanuel, 1987) and idealized dynamical models (Knutson and Tuleya, 2004) both predict increases in tropical cyclone intensity under greenhouse warming. Recent simulations with highresolution dynamical models (Oouchi et al., 2006; Bengtsson et al., 2007; Gualdi et al., 2008; Knutson et al., 2008; Sugi et al., 2009; Bender et al., 2010) and statistical-dynamical models (Emanuel, 2007) consistently find that greenhouse warming causes tropical cyclone intensity to shift toward stronger storms by the end of the 21st century (2 to 11% increase in mean maximum wind speed globally). These and other models also consistently project little change or a reduction in overall tropical cyclone frequency (e.g., Gualdi et al., 2008; Sugi et al., 2009; Murakami et al., 2011), but with an accompanying substantial fractional increase in the frequency of the strongest storms and increased precipitation rates (in the models for which these metrics were examined). Current models project changes in overall global frequency ranging from a decrease of 6 to 34% by the late 21st century (Knutson et al., 2010). The downscaling experiments of Bender et al. (2010) - which use an 18- model ensemble-mean of CMIP3 simulations to nudge a high-resolution dynamical model (Knutson et al., 2008) that is then used to initialize a very high-resolution dynamical model - project a 28% reduction in the overall frequency of Atlantic storms and an 80% increase in the frequency of Saffir-Simpson category 4 and 5 Atlantic hurricanes over the next 80 years (A1B scenario). The projected decreases in global tropical cyclone frequency may be due to increases in vertical wind shear (Vecchi and Soden, 2007c; Zhao et al., 2009; Bender et al., 2010), a weakening of the tropical circulation (Sugi et al., 2002; Bengtsson et al., 2007) associated with a decrease in the upward mass flux accompanying deep convection (Held and Soden, 2006), or an increase in the saturation deficit of the middle troposphere (Emanuel et al., 2008). For individual basins, there is much more uncertainty in projections of tropical cyclone frequency, with changes of up to ±50% or more projected by various models (Knutson et al., 2010). When projected SST changes are considered in the absence of projected radiative forcing changes, Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone frequency has been found to increase (Wehner et al., 2010), which is congruent with the hypothesis that SST changes alone do not capture the relevant physical mechanisms controlling tropical cyclogenesis (e.g., Emanuel, 2010).
The projected decreases in global tropical cyclone frequency may be due to increases in vertical wind shear (Vecchi and Soden, 2007c; Zhao et al., 2009; Bender et al., 2010), a weakening of the tropical circulation (Sugi et al., 2002; Bengtsson et al., 2007) associated with a decrease in the upward mass flux accompanying deep convection (Held and Soden, 2006), or an increase in the saturation deficit of the middle troposphere (Emanuel et al., 2008). For individual basins, there is much more uncertainty in projections of tropical cyclone frequency, with changes of up to ±50% or more projected by various models (Knutson et al., 2010). When projected SST changes are considered in the absence of projected radiative forcing changes, Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone frequency has been found to increase (Wehner et al., 2010), which is congruent with the hypothesis that SST changes alone do not capture the relevant physical mechanisms controlling tropical cyclogenesis (e.g., Emanuel, 2010).
Also see this post of JeffMasters on the wind shear aspect.
As for quibbles on "extraordinary" and "abnormal", well, pfff....
I respect your position on "extreme weather events" and climate change, and I'm far from thinking I know what there is to be knowed. But when you diss Migeru's point about the diameter of Sandy by citing the faroff lost eons, then say the "fact-based approach" is to ask "what significant changes can be perceived from examining weather phenomena during 30-years periods", you're not convincing me.
Most of that, was already posted, here:
I refer you to this Nature paper from 2010, about which I wrote in this diary. And there is SREX (pdf, 31 MB), which writes, amongst many other subjects: The uncertainties in the historical tropical cyclone records, the incomplete understanding of the physical mechanisms linking tropical cyclone metrics to climate change, and the degree of tropical cyclone variability provide only low confidence for the attribution of any detectable changes in tropical cyclone activity to anthropogenic influences. Attribution of single extreme events to anthropogenic climate change is challenging.
I refer you to this Nature paper from 2010, about which I wrote in this diary. And there is SREX (pdf, 31 MB), which writes, amongst many other subjects:
The uncertainties in the historical tropical cyclone records, the incomplete understanding of the physical mechanisms linking tropical cyclone metrics to climate change, and the degree of tropical cyclone variability provide only low confidence for the attribution of any detectable changes in tropical cyclone activity to anthropogenic influences. Attribution of single extreme events to anthropogenic climate change is challenging.
whether a late autumn hurricane this size can be considered abnormal
will never be determined to your satisfaction. After all, there isn't a big enough sample size to obtain a significant result. And I hope there never will be. It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
what this storm hopefully will communicate to jes' plain folks is a. what shitty house design is and b. how the present electric grid setup is fatally vulnerable to 'external' events.
oh, and c. how much of their utility bills $ were poisoning the environment to then be wasted heating inefficient dwellings.
this storm's aftermath should bring down unemployment, silver lining being that the new constructions can be much more thermically intelligent.
in hawaii after hurricane IWA there were t-shirts with 'i survived hurricane IWA' on them.
one day i saw a carpenter friend with one saying ' i survived because of hurricane IWA!' It's a fine line between homage, parody, and consumer opportunism. Jess Walter
It's fairly obvious to rational people that poisoning the biosphere and making your own planet more difficult to survive on is a bad idea.
But it seems to me that this is another example of the difference between progressive long sight and conservative myopia. As usual, if conservatives cannot see that something benefits them personally in an immediate and obvious way they have no interest in it. If the immediate short-term effect on them is negative - higher taxes, whatever - they cannot see that the long term effect can be beneficial.
Narrow self-interest turns out to be an incredibly stupid and ineffective way to manage a civilisation. But we're stuck with the morons for now, so there it is.
After all, there isn't a big enough sample size to obtain a significant result.
Now if the press and climate enthusiasts would write such lines, you won't hear my grumbles about science findings and consensus.
Hurricanes are huge, spectacular, people are fascinated by them and a warmer world affects them (although models differ to what degree). They would form an excellent poster-boy for illustrating climate change - except that they are hopelessly difficult to tie to a warming climate on science grounds at present.
And to be perfectly clear, just because there is no clear established evidence, it shouldn't stop us from mitigating GHG exhausts.
It's just that it sort of puts your scientific grumblings into perspective... It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
However, I raised the topic on whether a late autumn hurricane this size can be considered abnormal.
Which implicitly segues into earlier discussion as to whether global warming can be demonstrated to increase hurricane frequency and intensity in the north Atlantic.
My position is there is probably nothing abnormal about such a late autumn hurricane... given current ocean temperatures. But what I think Nomad's question is whether this storm is abnormal compared to late-autumn storms previous to, say, thirty years ago. And this is where I say there will never be enough data points to judge. It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
First there's asdf:
global warming causing what would previously have been considered as unusual disasters now becoming the "new normal,"
Unless the damage estimates of 10 to 20 billion dollars are hopelessly underrated, Sandy won't even crack the top 10 of most costly hurricanes.
you don't see me writing Sandy isn't extraordinary. It really is - based on the examination of the meteorological phenomenon. However, I raised the topic on whether a late autumn hurricane this size can be considered abnormal.
there isn't a big enough sample size to obtain a significant result
nomad doesn't accept that there is any acceptable proof of actual increased hurricane activity driven by global warming.
Some of these claims can be made precise, and tested statistically (for instance, against a complete list of named hurricanes, which would span many decades already). What is the precise claim, and what is the evidence or proof that Nomad isn't accepting? I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
It's not about what I think, or prefer. With climate science, that's an imminent pitfall. I've learned that through the years.
What I personally want is a government that steps up to the plate based on the science consensus. As I've written here often, that consensus is scary enough.
-- Indiana Jones "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
Often these are bits of serendipity. I was happy with the composition - C-C taking over the Riviera, exploiting a passive image of women. Then I heard a skateboarder coming from behind me and just got them at the right moment - and I think it's the first female skateboarder I remember having seen !
Maybe it's because I'm a Londoner - that I moved to Nice.
!Technical Alert Blackout Conditions at Democracy Now! Democracy Now! broadcast under extremely limited power today as we, and much of New York City, are without electricity after Superstorm Sandy pounded the East Coast. Click on the segments below to see our in depth look at this historic extreme weather, the damage it caused to nuclear reactors on the East Coast, and the role of climate change.
Blackout Conditions at Democracy Now!
Democracy Now! broadcast under extremely limited power today as we, and much of New York City, are without electricity after Superstorm Sandy pounded the East Coast. Click on the segments below to see our in depth look at this historic extreme weather, the damage it caused to nuclear reactors on the East Coast, and the role of climate change.
"What we are not going to see is the economic collapse per se because societies cannot work in a social vacuum. If the economic institutions don't work, if the financial institutions don't work, the power relations that exist in society change the financial system in ways favoured to the financial system and it doesn't collapse. People collapse, not the financial system. "The notion is the banks are going to be alright, we are not going to be alright. So there is a cultural change. A big one. Total distrust in the institutions of finance and politics.
"The notion is the banks are going to be alright, we are not going to be alright. So there is a cultural change. A big one. Total distrust in the institutions of finance and politics.
"It's a society where the main activities in which people are engaged are organised fundamentally in networks, rather than in vertical organisations. "The difference is very simple - network technologies. It's not the same thing to be constantly interactive at the speed of light than just simply have a network of friends and people. "So all networks exist, but the connection between everything and everything - be it financial markets, politics, culture, media, communications, etc - that's new because of the new digital technologies."
"The difference is very simple - network technologies. It's not the same thing to be constantly interactive at the speed of light than just simply have a network of friends and people.
"So all networks exist, but the connection between everything and everything - be it financial markets, politics, culture, media, communications, etc - that's new because of the new digital technologies."
"All this together is not going to be a great electoral coalition, is not going to be any new party, any new anything. It's simply society against the state and against the financial institutions - not against capitalism, by the way - against financial institutions, which is different. "With this climate what happens is that more and more our societies will become ungovernable and, therefore, we can have all kinds of phenomenon - some of them very dangerous.
"With this climate what happens is that more and more our societies will become ungovernable and, therefore, we can have all kinds of phenomenon - some of them very dangerous.
"They are economic practices but they don't have a for-profit motivation - such as barter networks; such as social currencies; co-operatives; self-management; agricultural networks; helping each other simply in terms of wanting to be together; networks of providing services for free to others in the expectation that someone will also provide to you. All this exists and it's expanding throughout the world."
David Graeber in Debt has some interesting ideas about what characterised the middle ages from the point of view of economic and social relations, which resonate with what Castells is saying. I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
When the great empires in Rome and India collapsed, the resulting creation of a checkerboard of small kingdoms and republics saw the gradual decline in standing armies and cities, as well as the settlement of the lower classes through various hierarchical caste systems, the retreat of gold and silver to the temples and the abolition of slavery. Although hard currency was no longer used in everyday life, its use as a unit of account and credit continued in medieval Europe, against popular claims among economists that the Middle Ages somehow saw the economy "revert to barter". In fact, it was during the Middle Ages that more sophisticated financial institutions like promissory notes and paper money (in China, where the empire managed to survive the collapse observed elsewhere), letters of credit and cheques (in the Islamic world) developed and spread. According to Graeber, it was the Islamic "western" tradition of free market and commerce outside of governmental intervention that inspired the original formulation of Adam Smith, whose writing seems to repeat ipsis litteris the words of Persian scholars like Al-Tusi and Al-Ghazali. It took the emergence of the Atlantic slave trade and the massive amounts of gold and silver extracted from the Americas - most of which ended up in the far East, specially China - to see the reemergence of the bullion economy and large scale military violence. All of which, according to Graeber, directly inter-wined with the earlier expansion of the Italian mercantile city-states as centers of finance that defied the church ban on usury and led to the age of the great capitalist empires that endured and prospered for the next 500 years. As the new continent opened new possibilities for gain, it also created a new area for adventurous militarism backed by debts that required the economic exploitation of the Amerindian and, later, West African populations. As it did, cities again flourished in the European continent and capitalism advanced to encompass larger areas of the globe when European trade companies and military outposts disrupted local markets and pushed for colonial monopolies. This age would have come to an end with the abandonment of the gold standard by the U.S. government in 1971 and a return to credit money, opening up uncertainties and possibilities yet unclear as the dollar stands as the world currency largely based in its capacity to multiply itself through debts and deficits as long as the United States maintains its status as the world only military power and client states are eager to pay seignorage for its government bonds. By comparing the evolution of debt in our times to other historical eras and different societies, the author suggests that modern debt crises are not the inevitable product of history and may be changed.
It took the emergence of the Atlantic slave trade and the massive amounts of gold and silver extracted from the Americas - most of which ended up in the far East, specially China - to see the reemergence of the bullion economy and large scale military violence. All of which, according to Graeber, directly inter-wined with the earlier expansion of the Italian mercantile city-states as centers of finance that defied the church ban on usury and led to the age of the great capitalist empires that endured and prospered for the next 500 years. As the new continent opened new possibilities for gain, it also created a new area for adventurous militarism backed by debts that required the economic exploitation of the Amerindian and, later, West African populations. As it did, cities again flourished in the European continent and capitalism advanced to encompass larger areas of the globe when European trade companies and military outposts disrupted local markets and pushed for colonial monopolies.
This age would have come to an end with the abandonment of the gold standard by the U.S. government in 1971 and a return to credit money, opening up uncertainties and possibilities yet unclear as the dollar stands as the world currency largely based in its capacity to multiply itself through debts and deficits as long as the United States maintains its status as the world only military power and client states are eager to pay seignorage for its government bonds. By comparing the evolution of debt in our times to other historical eras and different societies, the author suggests that modern debt crises are not the inevitable product of history and may be changed.
Maybe what we're seeing is a reversal or at least a slowing down of the monetization and commodification of social relations
Maybe not so much reversal or slowing down as bypassing or superseding. The monetization and commodification are still going on at a break neck pace. Pay with cash at the local box store and watch the teenager at the register struggle to count out your change. Or wave your iDroid at the register and walk through almost without slowing down.
The growth of social media in some sense recreates the agora and the village square literally on a global scale, bypassing all that. For you and I to even have this conversation would have been all but impossible a generation ago.
networks of providing services for free to others in the expectation that someone will also provide to you
The very definition of the open source movement. Geeks Hackers People from every corner of the globe collaborating very nearly in real time to create something that rivals the very best efforts of Apple and Microsoft, motivated by nothing more than the shared sense of discovery and creation. And FOSS has been a model for any number of similar networks for every purpose under the sun. Now where are we going and what's with the handbasket?
Or wave your iDroid at the register and walk through almost without slowing down.
That assumes there's someone clever enough around to design an iDroid and make a payment system that works.
If most people are effectively illiterate and innumerate - which is arguably already the case in the US - iDroid's won't save you.
FOSS has been a model for any number of similar networks for every purpose under the sun.
FOSS is mostly about obsessive coders and peer status. Its ability to deliver useful technology to non-developers is very mixed. There have been some obvious wins, especially on the web and in web technology. And some miserable failures too.
I don't think FOSS is really about sharing for the sake of it, or ever has been.
It would be interesting to create a post-GPL licence which made it explicit that code was pooled, public and non-personal - as opposed to the various copyleft licences which start with personal ownership and relax the distribution terms - and see how well it worked in practice.
It's one (large or small) part of the puzzle and doesn't address commercial applications, infrastructure, hardware, contracts, support ... -----sapere aude
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