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by afew Thu Nov 15th, 2012 at 12:03:49 PM EST
In fact I wasn't thinking of anything in particular.
I even let myself lie in today, got up at 8:45 keep to the Fen Causeway
;-) Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
No, Whole binders.
President Obama is using a Cold War-era mind-control technique known as "Delphi" to coerce Americans into accepting his plan for a United Nations-run communist dictatorship in which suburbanites will be forcibly relocated to cities. That's according to a four-hour briefing delivered to Republican state senators at the Georgia state Capitol last month. On October 11, at a closed-door meeting of the Republican caucus convened by the body's majority leader, Chip Rogers, a tea party activist told Republican lawmakers that Obama was mounting this most diabolical conspiracy.
On October 11, at a closed-door meeting of the Republican caucus convened by the body's majority leader, Chip Rogers, a tea party activist told Republican lawmakers that Obama was mounting this most diabolical conspiracy.
If 68% of your party believes they can be possessed by demons a "United Nations-run communist dictatorship" is cold, sober, rational analysis. Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
Bobby Jindal never said nothing about setting the batshit crazy aside, he was just saying Republicans have to be smarter about how they sell the batshit crazy to the merely underinformed and skeptical. I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
Let's hope they didn't use Delphi in Georgia:
If panelists are misinformed about a topic, the use of Delphi may only add confidence to their ignorance.
DDM works really well as long as a corollary, i.e., even experts can be ignorant, of the Dunning-Kruger Effect is avoided. Not accounting for D-KE sends the effort off into an "interesting but not wonderful" La-La-Land. Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
Not accounting for D-KE sends the effort off into an "interesting but not wonderful" La-La-Land.
Welcome to democracy.
Oh, the horror! I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
With that in mind, is it any wonder the Los Angeles Times was able to surreptitiously listen in on a Romney conference call, and come back with just the right gifts for the rest of us?"The Obama campaign was following the old playbook of giving a lot of stuff to groups that they hoped they could get to vote for them and be motivated to go out to the polls, specifically the African American community, the Hispanic community and young people," Romney told hundreds of donors during a telephone town hall Wednesday. "In each case they were very generous in what they gave to those groups." ... "With regards to Hispanic voters, the amnesty for the children of illegals -- the so-called Dream Act kids -- was a huge plus for that voting group," he said. "On the negative side, of course, they always characterized us as being anti-immigrant, being tough on illegal immigration, and so forth, so that was very effective with that group." ... Romney said the Obama healthcare plan's promise of coverage "in perpetuity" was behind the intensity of support for the president among African American voters making $25,000 to $35,000, as well as Hispanic voters: "With regards to African American voters, `Obamacare' was a huge plus -- and was highly motivational to African American voters. You can imagine for somebody making $25--, or $30--, or $35,000 a year, being told you're now going to get free healthcare -- particularly if you don't have it, getting free healthcare worth, what, $10,000 a family, in perpetuity, I mean this is huge. Likewise with Hispanic voters, free healthcare was a big plus." ... Romney's frank analysis echoed his secretly taped comments at a May fundraiser, where he told a small group of donors that 47% of the electorate was unlikely to vote for him because they paid no income taxes and were dependent on government. It followed his running mate Paul D. Ryan's assertion that Obama's win stemmed from turnout among "urban" voters. Both were at odds with the election results -- Obama won several key states without large cities or minority populations. And he did so in part by asserting that it was Romney who was planning to disburse gifts -- by virtue of a budget plan that included tax breaks heavily skewed toward the wealthy.
"The Obama campaign was following the old playbook of giving a lot of stuff to groups that they hoped they could get to vote for them and be motivated to go out to the polls, specifically the African American community, the Hispanic community and young people," Romney told hundreds of donors during a telephone town hall Wednesday. "In each case they were very generous in what they gave to those groups." ... "With regards to Hispanic voters, the amnesty for the children of illegals -- the so-called Dream Act kids -- was a huge plus for that voting group," he said. "On the negative side, of course, they always characterized us as being anti-immigrant, being tough on illegal immigration, and so forth, so that was very effective with that group." ... Romney said the Obama healthcare plan's promise of coverage "in perpetuity" was behind the intensity of support for the president among African American voters making $25,000 to $35,000, as well as Hispanic voters: "With regards to African American voters, `Obamacare' was a huge plus -- and was highly motivational to African American voters. You can imagine for somebody making $25--, or $30--, or $35,000 a year, being told you're now going to get free healthcare -- particularly if you don't have it, getting free healthcare worth, what, $10,000 a family, in perpetuity, I mean this is huge. Likewise with Hispanic voters, free healthcare was a big plus." ... Romney's frank analysis echoed his secretly taped comments at a May fundraiser, where he told a small group of donors that 47% of the electorate was unlikely to vote for him because they paid no income taxes and were dependent on government. It followed his running mate Paul D. Ryan's assertion that Obama's win stemmed from turnout among "urban" voters. Both were at odds with the election results -- Obama won several key states without large cities or minority populations. And he did so in part by asserting that it was Romney who was planning to disburse gifts -- by virtue of a budget plan that included tax breaks heavily skewed toward the wealthy.
...
"With regards to Hispanic voters, the amnesty for the children of illegals -- the so-called Dream Act kids -- was a huge plus for that voting group," he said. "On the negative side, of course, they always characterized us as being anti-immigrant, being tough on illegal immigration, and so forth, so that was very effective with that group."
Romney said the Obama healthcare plan's promise of coverage "in perpetuity" was behind the intensity of support for the president among African American voters making $25,000 to $35,000, as well as Hispanic voters:
"With regards to African American voters, `Obamacare' was a huge plus -- and was highly motivational to African American voters. You can imagine for somebody making $25--, or $30--, or $35,000 a year, being told you're now going to get free healthcare -- particularly if you don't have it, getting free healthcare worth, what, $10,000 a family, in perpetuity, I mean this is huge. Likewise with Hispanic voters, free healthcare was a big plus."
Romney's frank analysis echoed his secretly taped comments at a May fundraiser, where he told a small group of donors that 47% of the electorate was unlikely to vote for him because they paid no income taxes and were dependent on government. It followed his running mate Paul D. Ryan's assertion that Obama's win stemmed from turnout among "urban" voters.
Both were at odds with the election results -- Obama won several key states without large cities or minority populations. And he did so in part by asserting that it was Romney who was planning to disburse gifts -- by virtue of a budget plan that included tax breaks heavily skewed toward the wealthy.
The head of the Republican Party in Maine thinks there might have been voter fraud in his state because "nobody in town knows anyone who's black," but black voters came in to vote on election day. In an interview with an NBC affiliate, Webster said he was astounded by the "dozens, dozens of black people" who voted, and thought it was odd because he personally doesn't know anyone who knows a black person in town.
In an interview with an NBC affiliate, Webster said he was astounded by the "dozens, dozens of black people" who voted, and thought it was odd because he personally doesn't know anyone who knows a black person in town.
But in the general case, I'm going with Drew's explanation.
It's important to understand the roots of this stuff. It began as a deliberate appeal to racism, with explicit condemnation of Those People as welfare moochers. Then it became more coded; Rick Perlstein posts the original, famous Lee Atwater interview containing the memorable passage,You start out in 1954 by saying, "Nigger, nigger, nigger." By 1968 you can't say "nigger"--that hurts you, backfires. So you say stuff like, uh, forced busing, states' rights, and all that stuff, and you're getting so abstract. Now, you're talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you're talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is, blacks get hurt worse than whites.... "We want to cut this," is much more abstract than even the busing thing, uh, and a hell of a lot more abstract than "Nigger, nigger."What Mitt Romney is now complaining about is the horrifying reality that many people who aren't black see themselves as victims of those "economic things" -- and as a result anti-government rhetoric is turning into a way to lose elections rather than win them.
You start out in 1954 by saying, "Nigger, nigger, nigger." By 1968 you can't say "nigger"--that hurts you, backfires. So you say stuff like, uh, forced busing, states' rights, and all that stuff, and you're getting so abstract. Now, you're talking about cutting taxes, and all these things you're talking about are totally economic things and a byproduct of them is, blacks get hurt worse than whites.... "We want to cut this," is much more abstract than even the busing thing, uh, and a hell of a lot more abstract than "Nigger, nigger."
Some of my friends in the Finnish music biz from way back. Topmost was a big group in the Sixties. The singer here, Harri Saksala, is my singing daughter's lawyer!
Topmost is doing another concert in Helsinki, December. Their invitation triggered this excellent memory ;-) You can't be me, I'm taken
The Outcome Of The Afghan War Rests On 'Unpaid Donkey Contractors' - Business Insider
Afghan donkey contractors, some of whom haven't been paid for more than a year, are threatening to bring the war effort to a halt. Yes, donkey contractors. ... With a corrupt system of money disbursement hindering the Afghan army from running basic services or bringing enough water to their troops, it's no wonder they're having difficulty maintaining the 40,000 Ford Ranger Light Tactical Vehicles given to them by the Ford Motor Company. "The best we can do is donkeys," a 16-year-old donkey handler told The Post. "Without donkeys, there would be no Afghan army." And U.S. advisers are now devoting much of their time trying to solve the donkey problem in key fighting positions because if they don't, the 11-year war effort will completely unravel. "If you lose the outposts, the Taliban have an open door to walk right in," Sgt. Travis Washington told The Post. Given that the there will be no peace agreement between the Afghans and the Taliban before the U.S. leaves in 2014, time is running out to master the donkey system.
Yes, donkey contractors.
With a corrupt system of money disbursement hindering the Afghan army from running basic services or bringing enough water to their troops, it's no wonder they're having difficulty maintaining the 40,000 Ford Ranger Light Tactical Vehicles given to them by the Ford Motor Company.
"The best we can do is donkeys," a 16-year-old donkey handler told The Post. "Without donkeys, there would be no Afghan army."
And U.S. advisers are now devoting much of their time trying to solve the donkey problem in key fighting positions because if they don't, the 11-year war effort will completely unravel.
"If you lose the outposts, the Taliban have an open door to walk right in," Sgt. Travis Washington told The Post.
Given that the there will be no peace agreement between the Afghans and the Taliban before the U.S. leaves in 2014, time is running out to master the donkey system.
Just remember this when US declares victory and goes home. Not that I am against declaring victory and going as a strategy, I have been arguing for it since 2001 or something. But it is nice to remember what victory looks like. A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!
Petraeus sex scandal prompts laughter among Taliban | The Raw Story
The sex scandal that has brought down CIA chief David Petraeus may be causing heartache in the Washington security establishment but the affair has prompted laughter among the Taliban. Petraeus resigned last week to pre-empt revelations of an affair with his married biographer Paula Broadwell, bringing to an end a glittering military career that included a spell commanding NATO forces fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan. A stony-faced Taliban official burst into laughter at the mention of the Petraeus affair during an interview with AFP in northwest Pakistan this week.
The sex scandal that has brought down CIA chief David Petraeus may be causing heartache in the Washington security establishment but the affair has prompted laughter among the Taliban.
Petraeus resigned last week to pre-empt revelations of an affair with his married biographer Paula Broadwell, bringing to an end a glittering military career that included a spell commanding NATO forces fighting the Taliban in Afghanistan.
A stony-faced Taliban official burst into laughter at the mention of the Petraeus affair during an interview with AFP in northwest Pakistan this week.
At least someone got a laugh from the tribulations of the CIA chief David Petraeus - his foes in the Taliban.Days after Mr Petraeus stood down from his position amid the fall-out of an extramarital affair, a stony-faced Taliban official burst into laughter at the mention of what happened to the man who served as head of US and international forces in Afghanistan in 2010 and 2011. "What a bastard! But all Americans are the same, it's nothing new," the unidentified official told Agence France-Presse.The moral code of the Pashtuns, the main ethnic group from which the Taliban draw their members, also demands severe punishment for adulterers. "From a Pashtun point of view, Petraeus should be shot by relatives from his mistress's family," the Taliban official continued. "From a sharia point of view, he should be stoned to death."
At least someone got a laugh from the tribulations of the CIA chief David Petraeus - his foes in the Taliban.
Days after Mr Petraeus stood down from his position amid the fall-out of an extramarital affair, a stony-faced Taliban official burst into laughter at the mention of what happened to the man who served as head of US and international forces in Afghanistan in 2010 and 2011. "What a bastard! But all Americans are the same, it's nothing new," the unidentified official told Agence France-Presse.
The moral code of the Pashtuns, the main ethnic group from which the Taliban draw their members, also demands severe punishment for adulterers. "From a Pashtun point of view, Petraeus should be shot by relatives from his mistress's family," the Taliban official continued. "From a sharia point of view, he should be stoned to death."
Horses and Mules were used extensively during WWII. -----sapere aude
"Donkeys are the Afghan helicopter," Col. Abdul Nasseeri, an Afghan battalion commander in the Konar province, tells the Post. It's more of out of necessity than anything else as U.S. commanders refuse to buy the Afghans helicopters because they say choppers are too costly and not essential to the mission.
"Donkeys are the Afghan helicopter," Col. Abdul Nasseeri, an Afghan battalion commander in the Konar province, tells the Post.
It's more of out of necessity than anything else as U.S. commanders refuse to buy the Afghans helicopters because they say choppers are too costly and not essential to the mission.
In the last war in Afghanistan, road supply did not work that well:
CONVOY ESCORT IN GUERRILLA COUNTRY: THE SOVIET EXPERIENCE
The 1979-1989 Soviet-Afghan War pitted a modern, mechanized army against a strong-willed guerrilla force fighting on some of the most inhospitable terrain on earth. The war soon devolved into a fight for control of the limited lines of communication--the road network which connected the cities of Afghanistan with each other and to Pakistan and the Soviet Union (Map 1). The Afghan guerrillas learned to ambush supply convoys and cut the roads. The Soviet Army, whose ultimate survival depended on its ability to resupply itself, fought to regain use of the roads. During the war, the Soviets lost 11,389 trucks, 1314 armored personnel carriers, 147 tanks, 433 artillery pieces and 1138 command vehicles/radios during their fight with the mujahideen1 guerrillas. Many, if not most, of these losses occurred during the road war. The Afghan government and commercial contractors lost even more trucks to ambush during the war.
The time-bomb at the heart of Europe Why France could become the biggest danger to Europe's single currency THE threat of the euro's collapse has abated for the moment, but putting the single currency right will involve years of pain. The pressure for reform and budget cuts is fiercest in Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy, which all saw mass strikes and clashes with police this week (see article). But ahead looms a bigger problem that could dwarf any of these: France. (...) European governments that have undertaken big reforms have done so because there was a deep sense of crisis, because voters believed there was no alternative and because political leaders had the conviction that change was unavoidable. None of this describes Mr Hollande or France. During the election campaign, Mr Hollande barely mentioned the need for business-friendly reform, focusing instead on ending austerity. His Socialist Party remains unmodernised and hostile to capitalism: since he began to warn about France's competitiveness, his approval rating has plunged. Worse, France is aiming at a moving target. All euro-zone countries are making structural reforms, and mostly faster and more extensively than France is doing (see article). The IMF recently warned that France risks being left behind by Italy and Spain.
Why France could become the biggest danger to Europe's single currency
THE threat of the euro's collapse has abated for the moment, but putting the single currency right will involve years of pain. The pressure for reform and budget cuts is fiercest in Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy, which all saw mass strikes and clashes with police this week (see article). But ahead looms a bigger problem that could dwarf any of these: France.
(...)
European governments that have undertaken big reforms have done so because there was a deep sense of crisis, because voters believed there was no alternative and because political leaders had the conviction that change was unavoidable. None of this describes Mr Hollande or France.
During the election campaign, Mr Hollande barely mentioned the need for business-friendly reform, focusing instead on ending austerity. His Socialist Party remains unmodernised and hostile to capitalism: since he began to warn about France's competitiveness, his approval rating has plunged. Worse, France is aiming at a moving target. All euro-zone countries are making structural reforms, and mostly faster and more extensively than France is doing (see article). The IMF recently warned that France risks being left behind by Italy and Spain.
[ ] Threat [ ] Menace [ ] Threat AND Menace Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
<snore>
Take, for example, France: If France were to bring its Government deficit below 3%, it would destroy the ability of the French private sector to net-save, assuming the current account deficit stays on trend (and it should: Germany's 6% current account surplus is as stable as if it were a successful policy target, and the Eurozone's neutral current account balance is consistent with the ECB pursuing a non-interventionistic foreign reserve policy).
If France were to bring its Government deficit below 3%, it would destroy the ability of the French private sector to net-save, assuming the current account deficit stays on trend (and it should: Germany's 6% current account surplus is as stable as if it were a successful policy target, and the Eurozone's neutral current account balance is consistent with the ECB pursuing a non-interventionistic foreign reserve policy).
What ? They imply that France should wish to crash at a higher speed, "if they try hard enough they could even be Greece".
What utter piffle keep to the Fen Causeway
The level of noise against the government in my alumni circles is quite impressive, as if we had not just had 10 years of right wing governments... Wind power
All together now: economic liberalism cannot work unless it is fully implemented.
(Montebourg, minister, Elkabbach, rightwing journalist with morning radio show. Charlie Hebdo, satirical weekly recently known for its Mohammed cartoon covers).
NY Times no less.
Did panic grip your soul as you stared into the whirling hypno wheel of the menu, where adjectives and nouns spin in a crazy vortex? When you saw the burger described as "Guy's Pat LaFrieda custom blend, all-natural Creekstone Farm Black Angus beef patty, LTOP (lettuce, tomato, onion + pickle), SMC (super-melty-cheese) and a slathering of Donkey Sauce on garlic-buttered brioche," did your mind touch the void for a minute? Did you notice that the menu was an unreliable predictor of what actually came to the table? Were the "bourbon butter crunch chips" missing from your Almond Joy cocktail, too? Was your deep-fried "boulder" of ice cream the size of a standard scoop?
Did you notice that the menu was an unreliable predictor of what actually came to the table? Were the "bourbon butter crunch chips" missing from your Almond Joy cocktail, too? Was your deep-fried "boulder" of ice cream the size of a standard scoop?
As truth-telling begins the long journey back into vogue, we have an example of journalism-not-dead. There will be major food fights over this review.
i just cracked up. "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
oh there is so much sadness around this story, but Leonard will not be freed. I wish there was a youtube of Robbie Robertson's song about this, using Leonard's voice on a phone call from prison. "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
Leonard Peltier - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Leonard Peltier (born September 12, 1944) is a Native American activist and member of the American Indian Movement (AIM). In 1977 he was convicted and sentenced to two consecutive terms of life imprisonment for first degree murder in the shooting of two Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) agents during a 1975 conflict on the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation. Peltier's indictment and conviction have been the subject of much controversy; Amnesty International placed his case under the "Unfair Trials" category of its Annual Report: USA 2010, citing concerns with the fairness of the proceedings.[1] Peltier is incarcerated at the Coleman Federal Correctional Complex, Florida. Peltier's next scheduled parole hearing will be in July 2024.[2] Barring appeals or parole, his projected release date is October 11, 2040.[3]
Leonard Peltier (born September 12, 1944) is a Native American activist and member of the American Indian Movement (AIM). In 1977 he was convicted and sentenced to two consecutive terms of life imprisonment for first degree murder in the shooting of two Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) agents during a 1975 conflict on the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation.
Peltier's indictment and conviction have been the subject of much controversy; Amnesty International placed his case under the "Unfair Trials" category of its Annual Report: USA 2010, citing concerns with the fairness of the proceedings.[1]
Peltier is incarcerated at the Coleman Federal Correctional Complex, Florida. Peltier's next scheduled parole hearing will be in July 2024.[2] Barring appeals or parole, his projected release date is October 11, 2040.[3]
Licensed from mlb.com of course.
I'll bet the All-Blacks would wipe their posteriors. "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
In rugby you're not allowed to disrespect the haka. Some team tried it by responding and got fined, which I think misses the point entirely keep to the Fen Causeway
On the other hand someone may not have thought things through as they've actually let them perform the haka and given them Weapons in this game. Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
When I think back to the perfunctory hakas of the All Blacks in the 1970s, now that was disrespectful. It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
Telegraph - Gregg's Table, London SE1, restaurant review
So much about today's restaurant is so monumentally wrong that were punctuation tsarita Lynne Truss reviewing it in my stead, she would suspect even its name of having fallen victim to an inexplicable cock-up. While Gregg's Table is the official styling, Lynne would assume that this, like almost all else, is a comical error, and that the apostrophe was mistakenly inserted to compensate for a mislaid question mark. "Gregg Stable?" is infinitely more apposite to what seems not so much a commercial venture involving the sale of food as a deeply-felt cry for help. [....] Whether Mr Wallace should remain in denial about this monstrosity is a matter for him. But any prospective MasterChef contestant is advised to visit Gregg's Table beforehand - and on the off-chance that he has the insolence to belittle your work, store away a Greggorian "Mate, have you eaten at your own bleeding restaurant?" for later use.
So much about today's restaurant is so monumentally wrong that were punctuation tsarita Lynne Truss reviewing it in my stead, she would suspect even its name of having fallen victim to an inexplicable cock-up.
While Gregg's Table is the official styling, Lynne would assume that this, like almost all else, is a comical error, and that the apostrophe was mistakenly inserted to compensate for a mislaid question mark. "Gregg Stable?" is infinitely more apposite to what seems not so much a commercial venture involving the sale of food as a deeply-felt cry for help. [....] Whether Mr Wallace should remain in denial about this monstrosity is a matter for him. But any prospective MasterChef contestant is advised to visit Gregg's Table beforehand - and on the off-chance that he has the insolence to belittle your work, store away a Greggorian "Mate, have you eaten at your own bleeding restaurant?" for later use.
Nicely written... You can't be me, I'm taken
Generals in Their Own Web - NYTimes.com
I know this is convoluted. The movie, coming soon, will cut some details in the interests of plot clarity.
I thought the issue must have been one of security : P's mistress didn't have the adequate clearances? But she spent months writing his bography! So, the FBI has an agenda and brought him down? If so, that isn't apparent so far.
Either P was doing a good job and needed to be protected, in which case FAIL, or else someone within the power apparatus succeeded in bringing him down despite presidential support, in which case FAIL. Or else dysfunctional clusterfkuc, in which case FAIL.
Remotely possible : Obama wanted to replace him but didn't want to fire him. In which case EMBARRASSING SUCCESS I suppose, but... Occam's rasor.
I've tried writing novels involving sex and power, and stumbled over plot devices that I judged too implausible. But no writer would dare invent such a nothing story. It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
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