Top Diaries

Presidential Election Seen Spurring New Wave of Lawsuits - Bloomberg

The U.S. presidential contest, marked by two dozen lawsuits in the past six months over voter rules including photo ID requirements and limited poll hours, may see a new wave of litigation starting tomorrow over who gets to vote and which ballots will be counted.
Voter rights advocates and lawyers for the candidates may initially head to court to keep polls open longer because of machine breakdowns, to make up for Hurricane Sandy's aftermath, or to bar partisan poll-watchers challenging the rights of some to vote, said Edward Foley, a law professor at Ohio State University. Democrats in Florida yesterday sought to extend early voting hours there, and in Ohio they are challenging last- minute provisional ballot restrictions.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:18:30 AM EST

Sadly for a country that places so much store on "democracy", it has allowed its electoral process to become a point-scoring plaything of competing factions rather than a means to determine the will of the electorate

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 09:51:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

When different groups have to coexist, the law takes the place of tradition, convention and "manners".

-----
sapere aude

by Number 6 on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 10:39:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

And that works until one of those groups manages to grab control of the legal system, or the top court.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:45:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

That group would be the interwoven corporate oligarchy, and they've got what they think is a stranglehold on the country, but it's really a deathgrip on the carotid artery, and the brains of the democracy are dying fast.

Not the brains of the corporate inventors and marketeers or psychwhores that manipulate the media all year, and the political ads during the apparently endless election season.

We're well and truly fecked, as history is glad to show. I just watched a History TV Channel 90-minute show on the Dark Ages, and the failure faults of the Roman Empire nastily parallel our own.

Align culture with our nature.

by ormondotvos (ormond no spam lmi net no spam) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:25:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Does it? The word "democracy" is not mentioned anywhere in the U.S Constitution, in contrast to the constititions of (for example) Germany or Venezuela.

by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:46:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The initial system for selecting Senators didn't involve the electorate at all. That was changed in 1913, though...

by asdf on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 01:13:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

that's because the US was initially a country that only extended the right to vote to white, male, property owners, i.e. the plutocracy.

by stevesim on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 01:30:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

So, we're returning to traditional American values.

Just so's I know

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 01:49:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not Quite (4.00 / 4)

In Theory and Law, African-Americans are supposed to have the same political rights as Euro-Americans.

Sometimes it even works in practice.

Originally the Constitution read:

Article I, Section. 2
Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers, which shall be determined by adding to the whole Number of free Persons, including those bound to Service for a Term of Years, and excluding Indians not taxed, three fifths of all other Persons [i.e., slaves].

Without going into the whys & wherefores, the South, always been a PITA, forced the Northern Radicals to put this Section in to (1) keep slavery legal and (2) increase their representation in the House to offset the larger population of the North. Madison, a 1780s one percenter, helped broker the deal (IIRC) because he wanted their votes to institute the Senate (= House of Lords) which he wanted so as to limit the political power of the House (= House of Commons.)

And I'm sure you Don't Care about most of that.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 02:14:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yeah, you know. Those traditional Western Judeo-Christian values that Obama is trying so hard to subvert.

Now where are we going and what's with the handbasket?

by budr on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:10:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

forecast the overall result

Really?

Obama won the Dixville Notch vote in 2008. But in elections before that, the town had stuck to more conservative candidates, twice selecting a Republican instead of Bill Clinton.

by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:18:40 AM EST

U R contesting Tradishunal Lore?

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:20:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Anyway, it's a conservative place that also voted Republican and Tea Party Republican in downballot voting. (See DKos story comments).

So an equal split is a good result for Obama.

(If we should be taking a sample size of 10 seriously...) ;)

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:23:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Well, we have previously accepted a sample of 5 out of 9 ...

-----
sapere aude

by Number 6 on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:39:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Nate (4.00 / 7)

has Florida turning blue

(see I can speek the lingo too)

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:24:41 AM EST

Re: Nate (4.00 / 2)

You're not as green as eu look...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:31:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It's gone yellow! (none / 1)

Nate doesn't have a new article up, but he's flipped Florida back to "Tossup"

Somebody's boss wanted to maintain some pretense of suspense?

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:56:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's gone yellow! (none / 0)

Nate has often updated the map without a new article. Each new poll that goes in updates the map, so does time as time decreases the influence from economic variables. I doubt there is a thumb on the scales here.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 02:18:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's gone yellow! (none / 0)

yeah I was just being an iconoclast :)

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 02:21:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's gone yellow! (4.00 / 3)

Florida election officials are predicting 9,000,000 voters, 500,000 above 2008. Approximately 4.5 million have already voted. Obama won Florida by ~200,000 votes in 2008. Registered Dems outnumber registered GOP by 4.5%. Dems cut into the historic GOP lead in absentee ballots and as of yesterday Democrats had cast 88,314 more votes than registered Republicans through Sunday. Overall early voting is down from 2008 but the GOP shortened the number of days for early voting.

Polls have it as a toss-up.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 02:50:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's gone yellow! (none / 1)

It should be pretty close.

As always, watch the Tampa and Orlando suburbs.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:01:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ready for a Recount? Why Votes May Not Be What Matter Most : The New Yorker

Suppose it's close, and suppose, further, that Ohio makes the difference. Prepare, then, for a prolonged bout of insanity.
In recent elections, Ohio voters have cast about two hundred thousand provisional ballots in major statewide contests. (Voters cast provisional ballots when there is some question about whether they are entitled to vote. The provisional ballot kicks the issue of the validity of the ballot down the road.) This year, the number may well grow. Just for the sake of comparison, in 2008, Barack Obama won Ohio fifty-three per cent to forty-seven per cent--2.7 million votes to 2.5 million for John McCain. In other words, in this year's close election, it's very possible that the provisional ballots will make the difference.
So what happens with the provisional ballots? According to Ohio law, the eighty-eight counties in the state are not even allowed to start counting the provisional ballots for ten days. In the meantime, those who cast provisional ballots are allowed to submit evidence that their votes should count--they can, for example, show forms of identification that they might not have brought with them to the polls on November 6th. (Edward Foley, who teaches at the Moritz College of Law at Ohio State University and helps run an indispensable blog on Ohio voting rights walked me through the process.)
Pause to consider the chaos that would ensue. Both campaigns would try to track down the provisional voters, find their proper documentation, and shepherd them through the process at the county seat. Ballot-by-ballot warfare--for several hundred thousand votes. And that's just the start.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:34:38 AM EST

It's on.

Local papers here in SW Ohio have nice Google Map mashups with reported voter irregularities.

Cincinnati (Hamilton, Butler, Warren Counties)

Dayton (Montgomery, Greene, Miami Counties)

If Ohio goes sideways, these counties are where it will happen. Unfortunately the South doesn't really stop until you get north of I-70 if you follow. I voted early, and I think that most of my students did too. It makes it much harder to suppress the vote when you have that option. And working at a HBCU in one of the swingiest parts of swing state Ohio, that's a real concern. The voter suppression group True the Vote has been active today, although it looks like some of them will be charged with election fraud because they faked signatures needed on forms to become poll watchers.....

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 03:46:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Husted should be indicted for misfeasance, malfeasance, voter suppression, election tampering, election fraud, and being a teabagging asshole.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 04:05:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Apparently Cuyahoga County is at 50% turn-out. Need that to be at least 61% (2008 levels) and hopefully much higher.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 04:18:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That was 50% as of noon though, I think. The goal is 61% by the end of the night, which sounds very doable.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 04:49:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Don't Bother Me with Facts (4.00 / 2)

I'm obsessing.

:-)

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 04:59:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Booman Tribune ~ Comments ~ Predicting the Map

This isn't going to be 2008. Butler County (right north of Cincinnati) has always been a GOP stronghold, but there has been a massive influx of Hispanics into the county over the past decade. I think that it's telling that yesterday at 5, Obama did an interview with the only Spanish radio station in the region. (I only know this, because I listen on my way to and from work.)

I know that there's been a lot of on the ground outreach in the county, but the National Right to Life Committee has been running these horrible ads (with horrible American accents to their Spanish)about Obama fighting for a law that would allow doctors to kill babies after they've been born.

That said, if Obama can get the Hispanic vote out here, then it will make up for the shortfalls elsewhere.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:01:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm already on the record... (4.00 / 4)

OK, call me the crazy foreigner (4.00 / 7) OK, call me the crazy foreigner, but I'm predicting an Obama win margin of 4-6% in the popular vote, 347 EV's, a net gain in the Senate, and a very narrow win in the house.
I have zero polling data to back this up, and my main contact with the USA is this blog. So let me just say that I have an abiding faith in the good sense of the US people.
As Winston Churchill once said, "the Americans can be counted on to do the right thing - having exhausted all of the alternatives first..."

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:34:44 AM EST

Re: I'm already on the record... (none / 0)

You are crazy. That is all I have to say on the matter.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:36:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm already on the record... (4.00 / 4)

Isn't 8 years of Romney one of the alternatives?

In any case, like lots of other Churchill quotes, this one is apocryphal.

by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:40:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm already on the record... (4.00 / 5)

It was Einstein who said it. No, Abraham Lincoln.

Wait, wasn't it Mark Twain?

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:55:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm already on the record... (none / 0)

If it's apocryphal, it must be true... It's in the Bible init?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:35:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm already on the record... (none / 0)

yep, The Comedy of Errors, Act II, sc. 2

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 10:05:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm already on the record... (none / 1)

From the same source (in the interests of fair and balanced discussion):

Booman Tribune ~ Comments ~ Predicting the Map

Re: OK, call me the crazy foreigner (none / 1) You're adorable.

;)

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:41:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm already on the record... (none / 1)

At least somebody likes me! Boo hoo!

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:47:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm already on the record... (none / 1)

If Churchill said it, being a Conservative he would probably support Romney. If, that is, there were any connection whatsoever between "British Conservative in mid-20th century" and "batshit crazy American Tea Party of the 2010s." Which there isn't.

by asdf on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 01:16:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Some evidence... (4.00 / 4)

Nate shows late swing

In addition: More evidence of late swing

The most dodgy part of my prediction is that I'm giving North Carolina to Obama despite a small edge for Romney in the polls there. I'm doing so based on reports of a fantastic ground by team Obama there - too many stories to link to. This means I give Obama his 2008 map less Indiana and Nebraska CD2.

The only off the wall part of my prediction is that Obama will take the House. Almost no prognosticator share that view. I do so on the basis that If you believe the Obama turn-out machine will allow Dems to close the traditional GOP "enthusiasm gap" (the c. 3% difference between most Pollsters Registered and "Likely" voter screens) then its not unreasonable to see Obama 4-6 points ahead. And thus - even though GOP Gerrymandering means Dems have to win by at least 2-4% to re-take the House - it should be possible for them to do so - IF (and it is a big IF) Dems manage to sufficiently link support for Obama to support for down ballot congressional races. This also informs my view that Dems will make gains in the Senate.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:10:31 AM EST

Re: Some evidence... (none / 1)

I share your optimism (mainly because I'm an optimist)

And because I like NC.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:38:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some evidence... (4.00 / 3)

Are you assuming no voting fraud?
That would be something new...

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:50:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Daily Kos: BREAKING: OH SOS Husted Busted - Installed Uncertified & Untested Software on OH Voting Machines

Voting fraud mostly comes into play in a very close election. The most worrying report:

At 9am Election Day, a federal judge will decide whether untested and uncertified secret software will remain on Ohio's vote tabulation and reporting systems in 39 counties. Bob Fitrakis, in his capacity as the Chair of the Ohio Green Party, filed suit at approximately 12:30pm on Monday, November 5 against Ohio Secretary of State John Husted and Elections Systems and Solutions for their clandestine installation of uncertified and untested software. Judge Frost, U.S. District Court Southern District Court of Ohio, agreed to the hearing to be held Tuesday, November 6.
The suit seeks immediate the injunctive relief of removing the untested, uncertified software from all county tabulators.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:59:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some evidence... (4.00 / 3)

"Voting fraud mostly comes into play in a very close election. "

Which the House is likely to be.

Also, I believe the Republicans at full throttle can swing 3% by fraud. Gore and Kerry would probably agree in private.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:32:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Seems they're not even being subtle about it - VIDEO

Orange Satan - EVIDENCE: 2012 Voting Machine Switching "Obama" vote to "Romney"

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:46:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some evidence... (none / 0)

Link in the comments

[...]no conceivable computerized voting system can cast and count votes that meet the twin requirements of...being both 'observable' and also not requiring specialized technical knowledge.
[...]
In short, hand-counting paper ballots is no good at all, according to the oxymoronic logic of its critics, unless you really want to know who the actual winner of the election was.

-----
sapere aude

by Number 6 on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 12:18:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Numerous reports from Austin TX friends who voted, then went to the "final review page" and saw that the straight Democratic ticket they had voted had switched the vote for Obama to Romney without disturbing any of the other votes. This is being looked into, hopefully, as it was reported.

'tis strange I should be old and neither wise nor valiant. From "The Maid's Tragedy" by Beaumont & Fletcher

by Wife of Bath (kareninaustin at g mail dot com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:21:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some evidence... (none / 1)

Permalink: Nov. 5: Late Poll Gains for Obama Leave Romney With Longer Odds (November 6, 2012)

Mitt Romney has always had difficulty drawing a winning Electoral College hand. Even during his best period of polling, in the week or two after the first presidential debate in Denver, he never quite pulled ahead in the polling averages in Ohio and other states that would allow him to secure 270 electoral votes.
...
Among 12 national polls published on Monday, Mr. Obama led by an average of 1.6 percentage points. Perhaps more important is the trend in the surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained 1.5 percentage points from the prior edition of the same polls, improving his standing in nine of the surveys while losing ground in just one.
...
Because these surveys had large sample sizes, the trend is both statistically and practically meaningful. Whether because of Hurricane Sandy, the relatively good economic news of late, or other factors, Mr. Obama appears to have gained ground in the closing days of the race.

Nate Silver has Obama's odds at 11:1.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:57:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some evidence... (none / 1)

Yep - and to win by a margin of 2-3% of the popular vote - not enough, in my view for Dems to re-take the house.

So my 4-6% prediction is based on:

extrapolating trends
closing the "enthusiasm gap"
Obama ground game organisational advantage
a view that there may be some anti-Obama bias in the polls based on underpolling of Latinos, cell phone only users and a variety of corporate agendas - Gallup, Rasmussen etc.
optimism, confirmation bias
There's no point in being boringly average in your predictions.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:08:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Daily Kos: Fake Romney internal numbers were fake

Did you hear the one about how the Romney campaign leaked its internal polls to the British media?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:08:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

America's voting system is a disgrace - CNN.com

Washington (CNN) -- When the polls close in most other democracies, the results are known almost instantly. Ballots are usually counted accurately and rapidly, and nobody disputes the result. Complaints of voter fraud are rare; complaints of voter suppression are rarer still.
The kind of battle we are seeing in Florida -- where Democrats and Republicans will go to court over whether early voting should span 14 days or eight -- simply does not happen in Germany, Canada, Britain or France. The ballot uncertainty that convulsed the nation after Florida's vote in 2000 could not happen in Mexico or Brazil.

Almost everywhere else, elections are run by impartial voting agencies. In France, elections are the responsibility of the Ministry of the Interior, which establishes places and hours of voting, prints ballots (France still uses paper) and counts the votes. In Germany, an independent federal returning officer oversees a complex state and federal voting system. In Canada, federal elections are managed by a specialized agency, Elections Canada. Mexico, emerging from a sad history of electoral manipulation, created in the 1990s a respected independent agency, the Federal Electoral Institute. Brazil has nationwide electronic voting, producing instantaneous, uncontested results.

Now where are we going and what's with the handbasket?

by budr on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:11:21 AM EST

Two errors (4.00 / 3)

In France, elections are the responsibility of the Ministry of the Interior, which establishes places and hours of voting, prints ballots (France still uses paper) and counts the votes.

Candidates print their own ballots
Votes are counted by citizen volunteers

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:17:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Two errors (none / 0)

Cnadidates print their own ballots? How does that work?

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:26:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Two errors (none / 1)

I would assume that in similarity to Sweden France uses a system where you choose a ballot and place it in the envelope rather then have a ballot on which you are supposed to mark your choice.

So as long as they follow the proper standard on how a ballot looks, who prints it is a another question.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:50:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Two errors (none / 1)

That's it. The ballots in France are simple rectangles of white paper of the same dimensions, with the candidate's name printed in black ink. You place your chosen ballot in the envelope provided.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 10:38:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

There are rules (4.00 / 4)

about the size and format, and what you can put on the ballot paper (these are regularly infringed, and voting papers invalidated and reprinted as a result)

and so you design your ballot (or use your party's national design, inserting your name) and order them from your favourite printer, and have them sent to the prefecture, which distributes them to polling booths.

You get refunded for your printing expenses if you get over 5%. "Small" candidates sometimes don't provide enough ballots to cover all the polling places. Voters are allowed to print out their own ballots and bring them, as long as they conform to the standard model.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:50:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Elections Open Thread (4.00 / 13)

Germany "still" votes on paper too, I'd like to emphasise. There has been an attempt to introduce electronic voting (Hamburg was meant to be the guinea pig), but when the Senate wanted to demonstrate that this is impossible to rig, the Chaos Computer Club hacked the device. Oops.

by Katrin on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:36:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Ireland tried to introduce computerised voting at enormous cost but had to back down because of lack of a paper trail and doubts about the security and verifiability of results.

I worked in information technology for a significant part of my life and would be an enthusiast for the most part. But give me a paper based voting system every time. The counting may be slower and more labour intensive but it is part of the ritual and ceremony of democracy.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:42:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The Irish implementation was appalling. In principle, there's nothing wrong with electronic voting, implemented properly.

The problem is getting a proper implementation past politicians and their consultants.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:51:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I disagree (4.00 / 12)

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. Applied to voting, this means that the average voter has absolutely no reason to have confidence in electronic voting, because it's not transparent or comprehensible. I agree that there are ways of making it technically reliable and even technically transparent, but then we are still asking voters to trust the experts.

And anyway, it's a solution without a problem. Transparency, citizen participation and paper trails will always trump electronics. And a three-hour delay is of no significance whatsoever.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:56:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh technically I have no doubt it's possible, and we may well see internet based voting with retina scanning voter identification or some such big brother technology to implement it within my lifetime.

But there is no business case to invest €100 Million in specialized equipment that will be used once every few years - as was the case in Ireland - to automate a process which takes a few hours and involves a lot of people in the process - which is a good end in itself.

It is much hard to hack into a decentralised process manned by thousands of humans in public view.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 08:29:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

But there is no business case to invest €100 Million in specialized equipment that will be used once every few years

What about Diebold's 'program for victory' in 2004? How is this distinguishable from the old axiom that the highest ROI you will ever get is from a (large) political contribution to a winning ticket? Add to that the fact that Diebold was paid a market price for these machines. But it is true that there is no sane PUBLIC POLICY case to be made for such criminal insanity.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 12:18:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes. I want the option to watch the counting, and I have that only with paper ballots. I don't find the process slow, by the way. Usually we have the results in Germany after 4 hours or earlier.

by Katrin on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:56:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Elections Open Thread (4.00 / 9)

And a couple of hours ia barely enough to get the victory party / burial drinking started.

Won't somebody think about the election activists!?

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 08:04:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Elections Open Thread (4.00 / 10)

When it comes to voting I think the more people who can understand the full process, the better. And no matter how open you make computerised voting (as opposed to real life examples) it would still demand a higher understanding then couting papers.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 08:01:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Good old CCC.

-----
sapere aude

by Number 6 on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 08:26:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Elections Open Thread (4.00 / 7)

Brazil has nationwide electronic voting, producing instantaneous, uncontested results.

Machines made by Diebold (who have now changed their name).
Not "uncontested" as much as "uncontestable".

Again a religious belief in technology.
(See also "lie detectors")

-----
sapere aude

by Number 6 on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:39:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Diebold - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In August 2007 DES rebranded itself^[8] as Premier Election Solutions. In 2009 it was sold to a competitor, Election Systems & Software.^[9]

DES = Diebold Election Systems.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 10:42:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

that Diebold was considering divesting itself of its voting machine subsidiary because it was "widely seen as tarnishing the company's reputation".

Let me know how that works out ...

Seems they've sold the subsidiary but are stuck with the name.

-----
sapere aude

by Number 6 on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 10:50:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

They could try assassinating the corporate officer who boasted about 'a program for victory' and then leaking that it was the board that done it. The officer is dead, the board goes to prison - clean slate for what is left.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 12:22:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'd buy some shares in that company. Who'd dare not to?

-----
sapere aude

by Number 6 on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 12:23:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The thing is, the US already has proper procedures in place for paper voting:

Representatives of both/all parties present.
No one enters or leaves until count is complete.

You could make a case for a viewing gallery I suppose.
Not sure every community center and church can afford to install one.

(Vaguely like how the pre-revolution French had the alleged right to see royal offspring being born.)

-----
sapere aude

by Number 6 on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 08:59:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

What time do US states declare election results?

"America" doesn't have a voting system. We have 50 independent state-based voting systems.

by asdf on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 01:21:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Plan your evening (4.00 / 3)

I guess I'll go to bed if Obama wins Florida. Otherwise, I suppose I'll wait for North Carolina/Ohio.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:20:02 AM EST

I'm taking my floater tomorrow so I can stay up. I think I may take a swig of something every time a talking head says "too close to call." It might turn into an interesting night.

Now where are we going and what's with the handbasket?

by budr on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 08:34:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I think I may take a swig of something every time a talking head says "too close to call."

I think I'd be smashed already.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 10:12:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The BBC's shrill pro-Romney neck-and-neck coverage (that's not an oxymoron, btw) has been making me feel like getting smashed for weeks now.

And I don't even drink.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 12:49:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

amen

It's a fine line between homage, parody, and consumer opportunism. Jess Walter

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 03:33:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Isn't Ohio only 30 mins after Florida?

I need to be in bed early because I have a long journey the next day, starting early, but I suspect I'll be up until at least 12:30...

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 08:48:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Nah,I'm happy to wait till tomorrow morning when it's all over.

The thought of watching clueless BBC talking heads repeat "it's all too close to call" into the early hours fills me with an exhaustion too great to bear.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 10:14:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Better to get up a bit early. By then the results might mean something. We are usually starting to zero in on all but a few problem races by about 2:00 AM Wednesday, Central Time.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 12:27:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Isn't that 8am in England? Is that early?

by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 12:29:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm usually up at 7:15. I might get up a bit earlier just digest the results before I'm out for the day.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 12:35:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

London is 5 hours ahead of the US east coast.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 12:40:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Six hours now. We just turned back the clocks from Daylight Saving Time last weekend.

Now where are we going and what's with the handbasket?

by budr on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 01:27:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

So did the UK

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 01:31:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh, right. I'm in Central time zone. We're UTC -6 standard time, -5 DST. But you probably weren't talking about out here in flyoverland, were you.

Now where are we going and what's with the handbasket?

by budr on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:33:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Isn't it 6:33 (as I am writing this you P/N'ing snogglewarts) in London?

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 01:33:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If this reads 6:49, then possibly

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 01:49:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

We have the technology... (none / 1)

... and we ain't afraid to use it.

Check the current time in any US time zone. (brought to you by the fine taxpayers of the USofA :)

For instance, Eastern.

To plan ahead, you can try this meeting planner (ex: Florida).

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.

by Bernard on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 03:16:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Don't matter how late I get up, once the results are in, they'll stay the same.

The only interest is if the voting in Florida and Ohio is stopped because the electoral process is so obviously rigged that it cannot credibly proceed. But, then again, if American pols didn't want their elections dirty, they'd do something about it. Their indifference speaks volumes

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 12:34:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I guess I'll go to bed if Obama wins Florida.

That's what I did in 2000.....

by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:49:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Florida was the prize in 2000 though. This year, it's hard to envision Florida being the deciding state. It's nice to have for Obama, and necessary for Romney. But the likely scenario is that Romney would already be facing a loss if Florida were even in the discussion, because he'd have lost OH and the West.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 12:03:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Plan your evening (4.00 / 8)

Looks like Grayson (9th) will re-gain his seat.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 12:10:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 12:17:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Plan your evening (4.00 / 5)

:-) At least one Member of the House to call out the criminals!

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 12:30:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I thought he was going to run in a more solidly Democratic district this time.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 12:28:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I know nothing re: Florida Democratic politics.

Drew may be able to answer.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 12:35:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Plan your evening (4.00 / 5)

From wiki:

On the evening of July 11, 2011, Grayson announced in an e-mail to supporters that he planned to run once again for Congress.[37] Grayson was the only Democrat running in a newly-created Democratic-oriented district in Central Florida.

Alan Greyson seems like the political answer to Abe Lincoln's need for 'a general who will fight'. So, naturally, he will be the subject of lots of political jujitsu painting him as overly aggressive, uncouth, uncivil and unsuitable for public life. He may satisfy LBJ's definition of the art of politics as 'knowing when to hold a knife to a man's belly and when to stick it in.' I am pretty sure he has got the 'stick it in' part down pat. If only the House Dems would make him one of their whips or the chair or ranking member of an investigative committee.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 01:00:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

IF he wins ...

As a two time Representative he won't have senority to be a Committee Chairman.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 01:04:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Really? I have to confess I had no idea he was running.

I'm hoping our redneck-ass congressman, Steve Southerland, whom I'd love to smack the accent off, loses to Al Lawson tonight. No idea what the race looks like in the polls.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:09:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Plan your evening (4.00 / 5)

Might as well. There's no conceivable way Romney loses Florida and wins the presidency.

The story now is whether the GOP will keep the House of Representatives. Polls indicate not but it's dicey. OFA's GOTV may have moved the voter demographics outside the pollster's Likely Voter Screens.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 12:08:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

For those who care, here is a list of competitive House seats.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 12:36:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Otherway Round (none / 0)

Polls indicate not

s/b Polls indicate GOP will keep the House.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 12:54:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

My American friend Lori has come to stay up with me awaiting election results. It's a tense night. Wish we had drugs, except I'm too old to appreciate them any longer. Like the rest of the world, and especially folks living in swing states, I am SO ready for this to be over, but will be devastated if Romney is able to steal it. Kriced.

'tis strange I should be old and neither wise nor valiant. From "The Maid's Tragedy" by Beaumont & Fletcher

by Wife of Bath (kareninaustin at g mail dot com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:30:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It is starting to look like Obama can win and it still will not be over. It will depend on if or when Romney concedes the election. Carl Rove is arguing ON THE AIR at Fox that Fox should rescind their call of Ohio for Obama, which would put him over the top. EVEN FOX NEWS called the state for Obama. Now we will see what happens as other 'too close to call states are called for Obama. You had better hold off on the drugs in any case as it could turn into a bad trip. :-)

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 12:08:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

For the Ages

[...] Rove staged a live TV mutiny. He insisted that the Ohio call had been premature and then forced Fox's Megan Kelly to make an SNL like walk through the Fox building and confront the network's official number counters with Rove's objections.
[...]
So basically at this point Barone is like half grief counselor, half hostage negotiator trying to get Rove through Kubler-Ross's 5 stages of grief.

Haven't watched it yet. Something nice and juicy for Stewart, Colbert, ... heck, anyone.

-----
sapere aude

by Number 6 on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 02:28:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Plan your evening (4.00 / 4)

So, while the liberal intellectuals were busy analyzing, Rove and his billionaires acted -- and no one but their pet racists, fundie crazies and paid foamers gave a fuck. The popular response to RW overreach in attempting to suppress voting overwhelmed their efforts. Blowback big time. Sweet it is. In his acceptance speech Obama noted that we needed to do something about the voting situation. So I expect him to start by promptly conceding every point of strength he has. Over half of his problem may be his not understanding the extent to which bogus framing is confounding his thinking on everything relating to the economy - starting with 'the debt situation'. The thought that he might actually understand this and still acts as he does it the really frightening and depressing possibility.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 03:09:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Anybody got any tips on what on-line sites are best to follow the election results in real time? I only have Spanish TV channels and don't particularly want to listen to CNN talking heads on line. Give me DATA!.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:36:15 AM EST

Where to watch the 2012 presidential election live online -- Online Video News

Watching the results in real time has never been easier than during this year's presidential election: Numerous TV networks and news sites are live streaming on the web, on the iPad and on Xboxes and connected devices. Check out our ultimate guide for all the links.

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.

by Bernard on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 08:48:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I'll probably keep an eye on this. No doubt there will be others.

http://www.pbs.org/newshour/vote2012/map/all_results.html

Now where are we going and what's with the handbasket?

by budr on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 08:52:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I think you can watch Australian ABC 24 NEWS they will cover it from 10:30 tomorrow morning Australian time. Or was it SBS? Not sure...

by vbo on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 09:47:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Wikipedia? Perhpas not real time, but not much lagg.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!

by A swedish kind of death on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 10:16:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

http://www.comedycentral.com/

'tis strange I should be old and neither wise nor valiant. From "The Maid's Tragedy" by Beaumont & Fletcher

by Wife of Bath (kareninaustin at g mail dot com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:32:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

http://www.abc.net.au/iview/#/view/1030181

Interesting and informative...

by vbo on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 09:48:13 AM EST

http://www.abc.net.au/iview/#/series/foreigncorrespondent

Actually here

by vbo on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 09:50:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Not available outside Aussieland...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 09:51:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Romney Campaign Devastated By Iowa Poll - Business Insider

Huh...I hate when it happens...

by vbo on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 09:52:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Yawn (none / 1)

Wake me up after SCOTUS hands down its edict. I can see the smirks on "the 5" already.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wp4O7v5320

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 10:12:32 AM EST

Re: Yawn (none / 1)

After the courts are done?
Didn't know there were people who hibernate ...

-----
sapere aude

by Number 6 on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 10:35:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Positively 538 (4.00 / 6)

Bob Dylan Predicts Obama `In a Landslide'

MADISON, Wis. (AP) -- Bob Dylan says he thinks President Barack Obama is going to win a landslide.

Dylan made the prediction Monday night midway through the song "Blowin' in the Wind" during a concert in the battleground state of Wisconsin.

Dylan spoke to the Madison audience as he was wrapping up his concert that came just hours after Obama appeared at a morning rally in the same city with rocker Bruce Springsteen.

Dylan made his comments during his encore when he said, "We tried to play good tonight since the president was here today."

He went on to say he thinks Obama will prevail Tuesday.

Dylan says, "Don't believe the media. I think it's going to be a landslide."

After his comments, Dylan completed the song to the roar of the crowd.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:01:58 AM EST

Re: Positively 538 (none / 0)

Ooh, ooh, do the voice!
"In a LAIHN-slide"

-----
sapere aude

by Number 6 on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:34:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Positively 538 (none / 0)

Yeah, in Madison it probably will be a landslide. There are almost no Republicans even on the ballot...

by asdf on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 01:43:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Positively 538 (none / 0)

Duh. Maybe landslide in the electoral college. But isn't a landslide defined as a double digit advantage in the popular vote?

I went to a concert of his last year. He sings like Donald Duck or Leonard Cohen on cocaine.

by epochepoque on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 04:31:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Elections Open Thread (4.00 / 9)

Of all the swing state polls that have come out in the final days of the presidential race, none have been as devastating to Mitt Romney's campaign as the final Des Moines Register poll, which shows the Republican candidate trailing Obama by five points in Iowa, a critical swing state.
Republican strategists say that the Romney campaign was dejected by the poll, a well-respected public opinion survey from Iowa's largest daily newspaper.
The poll found Obama leading Romney 47% to 42%, an advantage that appears to be driven in part by an improved economic outlook among Iowa voters and persistent negative perceptions of Romney (Obama beats Romney by 10 points on the question of trustworthiness, by 10 points on honesty, and by 15 points on the question of which candidate is more caring.)

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:31:06 AM EST

The next Republican candidate might try being a little less blatant about the lies.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 12:36:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Can he, in that party?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 03:03:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well, we can hope not, as it seems a bit more than a majority are on to the technique of endless, blatant lies. With any luck this election will mark the point at which the stake began to be driven into the heart of the Republican 'Southern Strategy'. Demographics will continue to favor the Democrats over the next decades and the most fervent fundamentalists and bigots, so often they are one and the same, are 'going to be with their Lord' as the local obituaries read.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:12:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm going with:

Obama 50.6% (303 EVs)
Romney 48.2% (235 EVs)

Romney wins FL and NC. Obama wins NV, CO, IA, WI, OH, PA, MI, and VA.

Would not be shocked if CO and FL were reversed there though.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:46:56 AM EST

A good middle-of-the-road prediction. I prefer to be out on a limb...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 12:36:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Elections Open Thread (4.00 / 8)

Romney has been babbling about how the "world" wants to see new American leadership. Well, BBC World asked the world, and the results are in. And they're pretty dramatic -- NO ONE except Pakistan is even remotely interested in a Romney presidency. -- Mikko Alanne

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 12:42:37 PM EST

What about Israel and the Cayman Islands?

by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 12:45:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Actually... Strongest support for Romney is in Kenya. One suspects it's ethnic.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 12:48:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Nate Silver on Pundits (4.00 / 12)

"I'm not very pro-pundit, I have to say," Silver said. "If pundits were on the ballot against, like, I don't know, Ebola, I might vote Ebola, or third party."

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 12:59:13 PM EST

I can relate to that. (4.00 / 3)

Ebola keeps its promises.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 01:05:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nate Silver on Pundits (none / 1)

Colbert proposed Black Plague as the third party vote.

by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 01:11:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

But the Obama haters think Obama IS the Black Plague.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:14:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nate Silver on Pundits (none / 1)

What will those pundits do after the election? Eat humble pie, or accuse Nate Silver of creating Obama's victory?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:08:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nate Silver on Pundits (4.00 / 6)

They'll never admit they were wrong. And they probably won't admit Nate was right either. They'll have some pompous explanation for why they were really right all along, it's just the data was skewed by all those geeks with their cellphone apps, or Hurricane Sandy, or some other ridiculous excuse.

Now where are we going and what's with the handbasket?

by budr on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:27:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You guys make me nervous with all this talk of Nate's awesomeness.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:33:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I wouldn't say Nate Silver is awesome (I barely know him, especially his um... punditry), but the pundits who wish for a "too close to call" are full of shit.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:37:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well, to be clear, the pundits could wind up being right on that. Even in Nate's model, Romney still wins -- what, one out of eleven?

They'd be right for the wrong reasons, of course.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:40:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

As of time stamp Silver has Obama at 90.9% and Romney at 9.1%.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:46:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The percentages never make sense to me. I know it means Obama wins 90.9% of simulations, but meh.

It's sort of like in football. If Vegas has you favored by two touchdowns, what's that mean? 90%? 70%?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:53:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nate Silver on Pundits (none / 1)

Means they think you will score 14 points more than your opponent.

:-p

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:58:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Bah, I need percentages. That way I can gauge my expected level of disappointment properly every year. ;)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:01:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh ... OK (none / 1)

I'm nothing if not obliging.

They 100%-ly think you will score 14 more points than your opponent.

..........................................................

I don't know how Vegas computes the spreads. Got no interest in Football and even less in ~~pissing money away~~ gambling.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:09:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oh ... OK (4.00 / 2)

God damn it, AT, degenerate gambling is as American as apple pie, baseball, and foolishly visiting Drudge when you're horny for exit polls.

I need you to know these things.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:14:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

LOL <n/t> (none / 0)

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:20:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nate Silver on Pundits (4.00 / 3)

Nate's a numbers guy and all he does is interpret the best available data in the best possible way. The data is never perfect and never better than a snapshot at the time it was taken, so when it comes to predicting the future it all depends on whether past trends continue. So then you have to look for reasons why thy might and they mightn't and it all becomes a bit more art than science. I have disagreed with him in the past, but that doesn't mean he isn't the best numbers guy around and a welcome change from all the innumerate dunderheads.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot dotty communists) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:43:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Molly Ball (mollyesque) a Twitteren

Molly Ball ‏@mollyesque
Asked a Romney supporter here if he came into tonight thinking he would win. "I read Nate Silver," he said. "That son of a bitch."

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 03:59:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Is Nate Silver going to need an escort?

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 04:02:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama reelected as president - The Washington Post

Via The Guardian; some media try to spin it as close race even after the electoral college landslide:

That sub-headline is gone on the WaPo, but the current leading article is still at it (is David A. Fahrenthold a pundit?):

By David A. Fahrenthold,
Nov 07, 2012 07:19 AM EST The Washington Post
Barack Obama was elected to a second presidential term Tuesday, defeating Republican Mitt Romney by reassembling the political coalition that boosted him to victory four years ago, and by remaking himself from a hopeful uniter into a determined fighter for middle-class interests.
Obama, the nation's first African American president, scored a decisive victory by stringing together a series of narrow ones. Of the election's seven major battlegrounds, he won at least six.

Librul Media my ass... in truth, only Florida is truly close now, the gap in Ohio is just below 2%, in other swing states it's a comfortable 3-5%. The popular vote advantage is more than 1%, too.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 03:40:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nate Silver on Pundits (4.00 / 3)

And the main SZ headline is:

Obamas nächster Gegner ist Amerikas düstere Zukunft

by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 03:48:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

i wonder if obama wins with a big enough mandate, whether he will take the gloves off for a second term, or will we hear lame duckiness start right away?

i guess that depends whether he wants to go down as apresident way ahead of his time, or one that wants to really flip america around, damn the torpedoes...

It's a fine line between homage, parody, and consumer opportunism. Jess Walter

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 02:43:15 PM EST

Re: US Elections Open Thread (4.00 / 7)

Obama never had any such ambition. His healthcare reform was a republican plan, anything more radical was simply never countenanced. He continues the Afghan war, escalates an undeclared war within Pakistan, refused to do what was necessary to close Gitmo.

He was always going to be a steady as she goes Prez, and that's what he's done and that's what he will do. His signature achievement is being President whilst black. At any other time that would be a sign of greatness, but what America needs in a President right now is probably beyond anybody. Certainly with the GOP in such a negative mode

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 03:17:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: US Elections Open Thread (4.00 / 10)

what America needs in a President right now is probably beyond anybody.

I beg to differ. It is not even beyond Obama, if he had the will. He has the skill, but not the will. I think two or three of the 2008 Democratic Primary candidates might have done better than Obama and certainly had an easier time being reelected, absent the race bating. But Hillary would have had a similar attack, but based on gender had she been the candidate. Obama's greatest accomplishment will turn out to have been being POTUS while black and getting a second term while black. The election will be seen as historic because it will mark the demise of redneck dominance in US politics. Maybe the next time we can get someone who will try to do something with the Presidency.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:23:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Poll: Ohio union members give Obama and Sherrod Brown huge leads:

Hopeful poll out of Ohio.

Obama's support among Ohio union members has increased by five percentage points since 2008 [Whoo-whoo!.] Our Election Night and post-election polling in 2008 showed Obama winning 65% of the Ohio union vote, so even accounting for each poll's margin of error, Obama currently is performing at least as well among Ohio members, if not better, than he did in 2008.
Emphasis & Whoo-whoo added.
Ohio union members are 83 percent white, 40 percent evangelical, and 53 percent gun owners; Obama is winning 65 percent of the white union vote, 50 percent of the evangelical union vote, and 59 percent of the union gun owner vote.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 03:39:46 PM EST

Was just about to post this. Ohio unions apparently love them some Kenyanmuslimsoshulizm.

I saw Chrysler workers all got the day off too.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 03:51:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Romney screwed the pooch on the 'Sending Jeeps to China' thing.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 04:00:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Pretty stupid lie, really, considering Jeep would collapse overnight if it ever moved to China, and given that Fiat has been pouring billions into its Ohio plants and adding shifts.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 04:05:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

He is a liar. His whole campaign has been lies. Fun to see one (maybe? hopefully?) sinking him in his Absolutely-Must-Have state.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 04:12:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Two thousand and eight, a fairytale

It gets me everybody talking about how generous Chrysler is. This is probably part of the union contract. UAW folks generally have election day off.

That said, in stupid Ohio antics..... Someone was apparently walking around my neighborhood earlier in the week with an Ipad. They'd knock on people's doors, and ask them if they had already voted. If they said no, they'd ask the person if they'd like to vote. Then they'd hand them the Ipad to "cast" their vote electronically.

This seems crazy, but then this is the same place where they "forgot" to remember to send voter registration cards to students who had registered at my uni and the one cross town (both HBCU) but remembered to send them to all the other colleges in the county.

Oh... and yes. The Sheriff's race is between the Republican who chased students who tried to vote in 2008 down with police cars, and the independent, currently under review for sexual harassment in the workplace.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:05:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Blast from the past (4.00 / 7)

Caroline Amoros, performance artist (Princesses-Peluches) and Raphael Helle, photographer (agency Signatures), have been working together for several years. This collaboration explores the boundaries between reality and fiction, a fictional character revealing elements of reality.
In late 2008, the duo continues to work on U.S. soil. The device is simple: the character actress dons her blonde wig, becoming Kristin, nostalgic dreamer of the left, who goes to the United States to live in the wake of the presidential candidates, an election for the world; and photojournalist, Raphael Helle, follows her as if she were a real person.
The photographic work done during the two weeks preceding the election on November 4, is then broadcast in real time on the blog http://caroline-amoros.blog.lemonde.fr/ and projected on a screen in a marquee at La Vilette in Paris.

I was their political advisor. "How can I meed Obama?" I thought about this, and came up with : "Fly to Chicago. Hire a car. Get press accreditation so you'll know where he's going to be the following day, and drive drive drive, Ohio, Indiana, that's where he's going to be."

Seemed to work OK.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 04:15:47 PM EST

Re: Blast from the past (none / 0)

Wrong link?

This site has been archived or suspended.

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.

by Bernard on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 04:19:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Blast from the past (none / 0)

Use the "fairytale" link

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 04:33:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Blast from the past (none / 0)

Thanks.

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.

by Bernard on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:23:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Nate Silver Accounted For 20 Percent Of NYT's Web Traffic On Monday | TPM LiveWire

Nate Silver's polling analysis has been both manna for political junkies and a lightning rod for criticism from conservatives during the 2012 campaign. A new report out Tuesday indicates that it's also been a major driver of the New York Times' web traffic.
According to The New Republic, Silver's blog "FiveThirtyEight" accounted for an eye-popping 20 percent of the Times' online visits on the eve of Election Day -- or to put it another way, "one in five visitors to the sixth-most-trafficked U.S. news site took a look at Silver's blog."

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 04:22:54 PM EST

El Punditos are getting angry because Silver and Prof. Wang are showing them to be blithering fools.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 04:45:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Is Wang the Princeton Election Consortium guy?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 04:51:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 04:55:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

But is he skinny with a gay voice like Silver? ;)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 04:58:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Nope (4.00 / 2)

Looks well fed:

But he is Chinese, so ...

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:02:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nope (4.00 / 3)

You would be too if you felt the need to eat again every 20 minutes.

(ducks)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:26:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yea, why can't he be like a Serious Journalist and lie ?

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:00:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

T-Minus 35 Minutes to The Show Getting Started.

WHEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!

[Drew's WHEEEEE™ Technology]

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:26:04 PM EST

So, that would be Indiana and Cayenne-Tucky?

If Indiana goes like last time, I'm definitely getting an early night.

(Why is that completely impossible this time?)

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:33:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I thought it was a bit of a fluke last time.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:34:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It wasn't a fluke, it was the fact that the state was taken seriously as a swing state. My prediction is 46-54 Obama/Romney in Indiana. Down ticket the GOP senate candidate is toast after saying that rape is a gift from God in a debate, and the Governor's race will be close but I think that the Dem has a good shot.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:16:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You're right. Fluke's not the right word. But I think it's more conservative than liberal. Under the right circumstances, at the presidential level, it can go blue. But I think it's a tough row to hoe.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:54:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

by epochepoque on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:36:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:31:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Fun Things (none / 0)

Joe Biden, Ladies Man.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:33:53 PM EST

Re: Fun Things (none / 1)

I hope that Biden runs in 2016.

Just so that they'll bring Pontiac....... and cut off jean shorts back.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:17:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Fun Things (none / 1)

I'm torn. On the one hand, who doesn't love Firebirds?

On the other hand, a friend owns one of the last ones ever made, and I told him to never sell it because it'd be worth a fortune some day.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:19:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Also, too. (4.00 / 4)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:20:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Biden 2016 (4.00 / 2)

Fuck Yeah!

Seriously. If there isn't one already, there needs to be a Facebook group for this.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:32:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Biden 2016 (none / 0)

But there is. Could be a parody.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:36:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Biden 2016 (none / 0)

Actually. I meant a group actually titled "Biden 2012 Fuck Yeah!" with the classy pic Drew linked to above as the cover pic.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:43:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Biden 2016 (none / 0)

I don't know what it is about that pic, but it just kills me every time.

The Onion's whole Biden parody is exquisite.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:50:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

This is Drudge, so take with mountain of salt:

Exit Polls have Obama winning OH, NV, PA , NH, and MI. Romney winning NC and FL. VA, IA, CO are toss-ups.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:45:53 PM EST

Bah, didn't realize this one posted. Admins, I can haz delete?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:48:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Who did the polls?

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:52:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Those are allegedly the exit polls.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:53:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Admittedly I'm not an expert on exiting polling but I think they don't do themselves.

;-)

Anyway, it's Drudge.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:56:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well, duh. :P Don't the news orgs hire some company to do them for everybody every 4 years?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:02:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

News organizations hire polling firms to do their exit polling. Have to ask them who is doing it, their track record, & etc.

Also OFA banked a ton of early and absentee votes. That is going to bias sampling.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:14:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I heard a piece on this on NPR. It appears that the major networks and some of the cable networks pool their resources and hire the same firm year after year to do exit polling. They poll 600 precincts for a nation wide result and then do more detailed polling in the battleground states. NPR subscribes to that feed. The process is not perfect. In 2004 a screwy question misled the analysis for hours and NPR rejected the results, which proved the right thing to do.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 12:17:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

...adding:

Keeping in mind obviously that polls are still open everywhere.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:54:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Exit Polls (none / 0)

This is Drudge, so take with mountain of salt:

Exit Polls have Obama winning OH, NV, PA , NH, and MI. Romney winning NC and FL. VA, IA, CO are toss-ups.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:48:15 PM EST

Re: Exit Polls (none / 0)

If this were right, I think Obama carries it with 275 even if he loses the three toss-ups.

But who the hell knows?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 05:50:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Exit Polls (none / 1)

Some discussion at the Orange place about exit polls not taking into account early voting. I thought they did. If not, that'd be some pretty great numbers for the O-man.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:06:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Great Orange Satan himself is liking the exit polls he's seeing so far.

So that's good.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:09:49 PM EST

The Kids Are Alright (4.00 / 3)

Commenter on DKos notes youth turnout matches 2008.

That would definitely be awesome, if true.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:11:02 PM EST

The New York Times will host its own election results show straight out of its newsroom starting at 4 p.m. PT (Pacific), and the site will take down its paywall to make its entire coverage available to everyone for 24 hours starting 3 p.m. PT.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:31:23 PM EST

Demographics (none / 0)

Based no these, my guess sounds roughly right.

Whites 73% (-1)
Blacks 13% (nc)
Latinos 10% (+1)

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:37:24 PM EST

Re: Demographics (none / 0)

If we go with 39% of the white vote for Obama and 82% of the combined minority vote, that gets you to 50.61%.

Meh?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:38:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Demographics (none / 0)

Obama got 43% of the White vote in 2008. What with new voters being registered, the OFA GOTV operation, & etc. a drop of 4% sounds a bit much.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:54:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Demographics (none / 0)

The actual demographics are going to be real interesting.

Gallup had whites at 78% in their Likely Voter Screens which was obviously nonsense. Whites were 76.3% in 2008. Your 73% is right in line with the long term decline of the total white vote over the past 24 years.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:49:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Demographics (none / 1)

Science is a beautiful thing, mi amigo.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:50:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Actual Stuff from CNN (4.00 / 2)

Romney's internal polling has Obama winning Ohio by 5.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 06:52:03 PM EST

Re: Actual Stuff from CNN (none / 0)

I follow the live blog at The Guardian.

And here we the first actual results:
Vermont goes to Obama
Kentucky goes to Romney
And Fox News calls Georgia for Romney
CNN and Fox News both won't call South Carolina. Hello, are you insane? I'm calling it for the Republican candidate right now - for the 2016 and 2020 elections as well.

And:

The first actual exit poll as reported by the networks in Virginia shows a tie: 49% each.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:08:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

From Guardian (none / 0)

Obama took the women's vote 52% to 47%, and among young people by 59% to 37%. We just don't know how big a share of the electorate they both were.

Women tend to vote in higher numbers than men, so good news on that.

Also Kaine is leading by 2% which is also good news.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:20:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: From Guardian (none / 0)

A Kaine win would be huge.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:22:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: From Guardian (none / 0)

If Kaine wins I don't see how Romney takes Virgina. Possible, I suppose, but not likely.

IMHO

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:24:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: From Guardian (none / 1)

Well, he's running ahead of Obama, from what I've read. Exit polls say it's pretty much dead-even at the presidential.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:25:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: From Guardian (none / 0)

FUCK!

Obama is exiting polling to lose 5% of his 2008 white vote in Virginia.

That's .... not good.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:33:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

HA! (none / 1)

Bernie Sanders Senator from Vermont and Independent Socialist is easily re-elected.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:17:28 PM EST

Re: HA! (none / 1)

:) !

-----
sapere aude

by Number 6 on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:00:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

CNN exit polling has the percentage of vote in Florida dropping 4% and Latino up 2% from 2008.

That pushes Florida towards Obama.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:23:28 PM EST

Ooops! (none / 0)

CNN is reporting that Latinos account for 10% of the vote. Nearly 24 million Latinos are eligible to vote this year - 20% more than in 2008. Gabriela Demenzain, who oversees Hispanic press outreach for the Obama campaign, is confident that Obama "will win the largest number of Latino votes in history."

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:25:43 PM EST

That POS Moudock (none / 1)

The man who explained how rape doesn't matter is only ahead by 2,000 votes in his core areas. That have reported. Too early to gloat but does look good.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:31:07 PM EST

NC (none / 0)

Exit polling has it tied at 49%.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:35:00 PM EST

Ohio Exit (none / 0)

Obama leading 51% to 49%.

He lost white support there, as well.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:42:59 PM EST

Re: Ohio Exit (none / 0)

Florida currently at O51-48R with 2 million votes in.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:45:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ohio Exit (none / 0)

Last I checked Obama was winning Miami-Dade.

That would be one for the record books.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:47:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Demographics in Ohio coming in pretty favorable.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 07:58:21 PM EST

News Dump:

Everything as expected except Missouri, that is too close to call.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 08:09:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Like to take both Ohio and Florida. Still possible.

And I'd trade Missouri for Virginia ... but it would be nice to take both of 'em.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 08:10:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

My overpriced hotel has American news channels on the TV. Of course I have it muted anyway.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 08:07:43 PM EST

Refuse to watch American TV.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 08:10:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

And if NPR doesn't get their shit together I'm not going to be listening to it very much longer.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 08:11:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I could flip back to Mexican coverage...they don't do all the bullshit graphics from what I can tell, so ironically there is even less for me grasp.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 08:22:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Florida Senate (none / 1)

As expected Nelson (D) is winning re-election handily over Mack (R)

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 08:13:52 PM EST

Re: Florida Senate (none / 0)

Angus King (Independent, will caucus with Dems) is projected to win the open Maine Senate seat, an R to D switch and +1 for Senate control.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 08:16:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Senate (none / 0)

And may pick-up the Senate Seat in Indi-fucking-ana!!!!!

And the Governorship, too.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 08:20:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Florida apparently projecting out to O50-48R.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 08:26:57 PM EST

Whoo Whoo!

(And we just got the Bad Cat in. Life is good at 6:28 MDT.)

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 08:28:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

er ... MST

Must remember: spring sideways, fall down.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 08:29:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Voters are still in line in Florida and Ohio.

GodDAMN Republicans

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 08:26:59 PM EST

Just so you guys know, there are still some Yurpeens awake.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 08:47:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Just seen someone on CNN saying "I don't know how this happens". If you can't work that out how do you qualify as a pundit?

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 08:54:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That's nice.

I was being to think this was the ATinNM Personal blog.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 08:58:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Murphy wins open Senate seat in Connecticut. Dem hold AND we get rid of the odious Liberman.

Huzzah.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 08:39:55 PM EST

A quick look at Florida counties shows increased polarisation almost everywhere : more concentrated R or D vote by county. Interesting.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 08:57:35 PM EST

Miami-Dade county is going Obama. Used to be a GOP stronghold.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 09:00:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Stranglehold.

(2000 recount memories)

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 01:33:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Liveblog: Presidential Election Night - Politics - The Atlantic Wire

Bill O'Reilly says another reason Romney might lose Ohio, and thus the election is that "50 percent of the people... want stuff." They think Obama will give them free stuff. Latinos, blacks, women, they all want stuff. Obama would have never been reelected by the old establishment. He explicitly makes it a racial thing:

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 08:59:15 PM EST

Get this: Grayson is winning the Florida 9th (House)
62% to 38%

Holy Shee-it

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 09:04:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Florida two-thirds counted, Obama ahead again by... 0.01%!

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 09:23:46 PM EST

87% counted and 50,000 votes in it, Obama ahead, it appears most of the remaining areas appear to be more likely to lean O

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 10:24:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Twitter / RichardKimNYC: In Florida to trigger a recount ...

In Florida to trigger a recount the margin of victory needs to be .5% of vote total. Obama now leads by .6% w/ 89% reporting.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 10:31:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia are skating damn close too. Imagine the fun if it comes down to recounts in four states........

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 10:56:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Kaine won re-election in VA.

Fairfax, Obama territory, is starting to report.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:08:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Not that it will matter but it looks like Ohio and Florida are both going to either hit or come very close to the 0.5% mark for which an automatic recount is triggered.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 01:20:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

If they do that then they will have to inspect and include all the provisional ballots.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 01:23:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It's now about 1.9% ahead in Ohio and 0.55% in Florida, with the gap widening as the last few precints reported. Doesn't look like a recount.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 04:04:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

PA has been called for Obama.

This is one Romney, like McCain, made a big play for late.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 09:24:57 PM EST

oh bugger this, I'm off to bed

Early indications are no surprises from Colorado and New Mexico, so the O is a shoo-in, regardless of Florida

Cheery results to you all

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 09:34:31 PM EST

Had some trouble accessing the site for a bit.

Looks to me like Obama wins Florida and Ohio.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 10:33:35 PM EST

I think so

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 10:37:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Site attack, according to Booman.

So far the GOP has won the North Carolina governorship and the Nebraska Senate Seat.

Dems are expanding their lead in the Senate but have failed to make any headway in the House.

As of 10 minutes ago Fairfax county - Obama territory - is only 29% reporting. Most everywhere else it's in the 90 to 100%. Virginia is still up in the air.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 10:39:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

All the counties have reported but for Obama strongholds so, yeah, FL goes for the KenyanSocialist.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 10:52:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Twitter / Schottey: RT @SamMillerBP: So far, Nate ...

RT @SamMillerBP: So far, Nate Silver projected 30 of 30 states correctly... in June.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 10:36:40 PM EST

At this point...8:35 Arizona time, its a tie, but after all the Western states vote for Obama, he only has to win 1 or 2 of the swing states...so its looking pretty good. Will report back. I have been confident about this election a long time, but admit getting nervous today. Feeling better now...lk more soon!

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia

by whataboutbob on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 10:38:17 PM EST

The Great State of New Mexico has been called for Obama.

Heinrich is cruising so it's another Dem open Senate seat hold.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 10:41:31 PM EST

Warren flipped a GOP Senate seat in Massachusetts.

Hardy-har-har. Now I'll bet the GOP wished they'd given her the Consumer Protection appointment.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 10:42:42 PM EST

House is looking grim.

No Dem pick-ups yet.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 10:44:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Warren, F%^&# yeah!
One of the rare "good" and not just "not bad" people.

-----
sapere aude

by Number 6 on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:14:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Minnesota called for the O-man.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 10:48:27 PM EST

Are they waiting for the West Coast before calling OH and FL?

VA looking better too.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 10:56:55 PM EST

An hour and a half ago people were still standing around waiting to vote in Ohio and Florida.

SO nice to live in a Third World Country.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:07:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Marriage Equality (none / 0)

Marriage equality winning everywhere so far, isn't it?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 10:58:14 PM EST

Re: Marriage Equality (none / 0)

So far.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:06:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

North Carolina called for Romney. First swing state he's won.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:10:07 PM EST

Twitter / sturdyAlex: Sky News reporting that Jed ...

Sky News reporting that Jed Bush has conceded Florida. Bye bye Mitt!

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:10:55 PM EST

via BBC (none / 0)

TVs in Romney event have switched away from news coverage to show Romney biography video. Slightly odd #election2012Greg Milam ‏@GregMilamSky

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:13:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

hee-hee-hee

You can count this one up to the Latino Vote.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:15:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Akin out in MO (4.00 / 2)

Now let's find him a rock to crawl back under.

-----
sapere aude

by Number 6 on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:15:23 PM EST

Colorado to Obama. Ohio to Obama. Florida and Virginia and Nebada headed to Obama.

Ball game.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:15:28 PM EST

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:16:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

My big YES! picture has disappeared.

:-(

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:52:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ohio called for Obama - Obama has been re-elected!!! Yes!

"Once in awhile we get shown the light, in the strangest of places, if we look at it right" - Hunter/Garcia

by whataboutbob on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:15:46 PM EST

Iowa called for Obama.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:16:42 PM EST

US called for Obama.

The Mittster is forced back into its gold-encrusted lair, next to its evil and pallid Randian sidekick.

So... what happens now?

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:20:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Mitt out to pasture, Ryan to 2016 training camp.

-----
sapere aude

by Number 6 on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:23:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ryan won't get through the 2016 GOP primary. Especially after the party bigwigs look at their computer analysis and notice that their "angry old white men" strategy is a loser. The question now is, what will they change their strategy into?

by asdf on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:28:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

They're fucked.

Their nominating primary voters are TeaBagging FundieCons who will not (prediction) change their ideology.

Plus they are going to go apeshit with this loss. They really thought they could easily defeat "Obami" (sic) and take the Senate.

They can't win with their current coalition but they will really lose if the GOP upper echelon tries to move away from the Southern Strategy. Rove, et. al., tried to move away to include Latinos ... and we see how well that worked.

Right now the GOP is holding on to national power due to the 2010 elections and the gerrymandering that enabled. How long they will be able to hold that, as their base dies, is an open question. They could manage to keep the House through the next several cycles. Or we could start to see a slow swing to the Dems as soon as 2014.

One interesting thing, OFA is going to have to find a new area of operations, if the leaders and organizers are going to keep their jobs. No idea how that will play-out but, at the moment, the Dems have to be considered to be in the driver's seat for the 2016 presidential election.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:44:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

In theory the 2016 Front Runner is Ryan and next up is Santorum.

I agree Ryan is going to disappear so ...

Contemplate THAT, for a moment.

;-)

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:49:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If the GOP can't find anyone else, Bo the dog could run and win for the Dems

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 03:22:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

After all the money, time, effort, and foo-foo ... we're where we were.

The Dems increase their control of the Senate and the GOP will keep control the House - unless something unexpectedly weird happens.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:24:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

One big difference.

Reid will be Senate Majority Leader and he has vowed to change the Rules of the Senate so the Minority can no longer block business. This should mean Obama will be able to nominate a thundering horde of judges, appointments to sub-cabinet positions, openings in the Executive Branch, & etc.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:29:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Twitter / markos: Fox News in meltdown, Rove ...

Fox News in meltdown, Rove and Cameron now questioning their own network's call on Ohio.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:33:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

with video apparently (none / 1)

http://www.buzzfeed.com/dorsey/karl-rove-freaks-at-fox-news-for-calling-the-elect

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:49:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

So 2016, an even more insane republican candidate? we just weren't conservative enough?

Fox saying that they have to compromise, then a list of compromise issues they list, and the points they make are all ones that obama would have to move on rathe than them from the framing employed

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:31:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Republican donors sue Romney for making them spend billions of dollars to pick up two inconsequential states (as far as the electoral college goes)?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:32:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Need to change the SCOTUS decision re: Cash is Free Speech.

Won this one. The 2014 by-election may be a very different matter.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:54:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

if it all comes down to it, US democracy appears to be a way to give large ammounts of money to media barons

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:58:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

if you fancy (none / 1)

a Laugh from a climate change "skeptic" http://www.wnd.com/2012/11/win-or-lose-obama-was-not-and-is-not-the-president/

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:40:41 PM EST

Re: if you fancy (none / 0)

He really lives in a very different world to the one we've heard about ...

-----
sapere aude

by Number 6 on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 02:32:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Where are you, Twank? It didn't get stolen after all, despite the efforts in that direction. I'm hoping you're as relieved as I am. And now I can go to bed.

'tis strange I should be old and neither wise nor valiant. From "The Maid's Tragedy" by Beaumont & Fletcher

by Wife of Bath (kareninaustin at g mail dot com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:41:39 PM EST

Oh you ex-Texans.

Such wusses.

We're gonna party 'till the sun comes up.

:-)

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:46:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

sunrise being only 2 hours away

I think its bed time

Cont you crazy kids go messing things up with recounts while I'm asleep

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:57:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I hereby grant you dispensation for staying up and partying till the Sun rises.

by ATinNM on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 12:01:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

http://isnatesilverawitch.com/

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:54:07 PM EST

Karl Rove's Mission Accomplished

And in other news, Democrat Heidi Heitkamp is leading in the North Dakota Senate race.

THAT would be cool.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:56:44 PM EST

Fox News (4.00 / 3)

a Murdoch organization is undergoing a melt down.

Live and in Color.

Couldn't happen to a nicer collection of bigoted fuckheads.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:58:27 PM EST

Re: Fox News (none / 1)

The Great & Powerful Rove, reduced to yelling at the guys who do their projections.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:59:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Fox News (none / 1)

Wonder how many tens of millions that fat fuck pissed away to not elect Romney?

Wondering how long he can keep the grift going.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 12:03:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Fox News (4.00 / 3)

Well, what if we've been misunderstanding Rove? We've been seeing him as a man dedicated to helping angry right-wing billionaires take over America. But maybe he's best thought of instead as an entrepreneur in the business of selling his services to angry right-wing billionaires, who believe that he can help them take over America. It's not the same thing.
And while Rove the crusader is looking -- provisionally, of course, until the votes are in -- like a failure, Rove the businessman has just had an amazing, banner year.

Karl, what you want now is called a "Saving's Account".
It's what poor people use when they cannot count on continuously getting vast sums of money from sucker.

-----
sapere aude

by Number 6 on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 02:37:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Nevada called for Obama.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Nov 6th, 2012 at 11:59:14 PM EST

I was following pretty closely, and it looked to me like Al Jazeera called it first, just before the Fox meltdown...

by asdf on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 12:08:49 AM EST

Looking like Obama is going to win Virginia.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 12:24:11 AM EST

Yup.

Virginia called for Obama that's 303 and Florida should make it 332.

In other good news, the scum sucking Adam West is losing in the Florida 18th and Michael Bachmann is on the ropes.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 01:02:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The big news is that Romney is refusing to concede, it is past 12:30 Eastern Standard Time and Obama is up to >290 electoral votes in the consensus estimates. I don't thing there will be enough states close enough for there to be a recount, but it could get interesting here. Rove has been arguing on the air at Fox for Fox News to change its call for Obama in Ohio. MSNBC is describing all of the news organizations as going into detail now about just how and why they have called the results as they have. Rove was the conduit for $100s of millions of campaign contributions.

Could get interesting now.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 12:30:35 AM EST

Remember 2004?

Remember how the Dems were in denial about Bush being re-elected?

Now the GOPpers get to share the experience.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 12:32:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

If the situation were truly comparable to 2000 or 2004 I am not so certain Romney would be conceding. I just doubt there is any collection of results that could conceivably be overturned by recount that would elect Romney.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 12:55:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

At 12:50 EST MSNBC reported that Romney has called Obama to concede and will be making his concession speech right around 12:55AM. What a relief it is.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 12:53:01 AM EST

I in some small manner agree.

On the other hand, I would have liked to have the slimeball burn in his own bile, hoping against hope, for Reality to morph, to twist away from his undeniable failure.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 12:59:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

What he really understands is to when to cut his losses. No-values business man to the core.

-----
sapere aude

by Number 6 on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 02:39:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Romney believes in America and the people of America.

How touching.

Fuck off, asshole.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 01:03:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Tammy Baldwin seems to have won the Wisconsin Senate race. First openly gay Senator ever.

Which shouldn't mean a damn thing. Given the All-in-All, tho' ... it does. So, Good for Her.

In other gay news, Marriage Equality is a winner across the board for the first time in open elections.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 01:08:15 AM EST

Election summary (4.00 / 5)

by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 01:19:24 AM EST

In the spirit of bi-partisanship, and with due regard for the proprieties, I would like to offer a (NSFW) song in sympathy to Mitt Romney, the Republican Party and all the little TeaBaggers who comprise the Republican Party:

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 01:27:29 AM EST

Grr (none / 0)

not available in Germany, OF COURSE. Thank you, Gema!

by Katrin on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 02:27:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Grr (none / 0)

Look for Lily Allen and browse. The first word of the song's title starts with the letter "F" and the second word is "You."

:-)

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 02:39:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Grr (4.00 / 2)

That's not the point. I don't want to have to.

by Katrin on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 03:23:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Blacks (POTUS), lesbians (WI), socialists (VT) ... that's more like it, America!

-----
sapere aude

by Number 6 on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 02:46:25 AM EST

New US Elections OT up.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 02:50:48 AM EST

The Sesame street comment on last nights results

https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/68062_10152227623780705_907185474_n.jpg

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Nov 7th, 2012 at 07:46:39 AM EST