Mon Mar 19th, 2012 at 04:57:29 AM EST
The Social Democrat-Greens minority government in NRW (North Rhine-Westphalia) state of Germany did far better than expected. Now they didn't get their budget through parliament, so there will be snap elections. The opposition's prospects don't look very well and it was very surprising that they didn't let the budget pass. That was suicide for fear of death.
[Friday] morning we discussed the polls in the Salon.
Here's an overview of polls since the last elections.
IM contributed these: Two instant polls:
SPD 37%, CDU 34%, Greens 13%, Pirates 6%, Left 4%, FDP 2%.
SPD 38%, CDU 34%, Greens 14%, Pirates 5%, Left 4%, FDP 2%
front-paged by afew
[German party acronym and colour code: SPD (Social Democrats) is red, CDU (Christian Democrats) is black, Greens is (obviously) green, Pirates are orange, Left (hard left) is red too, FDP (Free Democrats; liberals) are yellow.]
Most likely Red/Green will win the elections. Theoretically possible would be a black and green coalition too. It's unlikely after the experience of Hamburg: both parties were punished hard by the voter.
Hannelore Kraft, the current prime minister, was not involved in the Agenda 2010 programme (the Hartz reforms, among others), which is a huge advantage for her. She was careful to be very cooperative in her coalition with the Greens, refraining from humiliating power play. Everyone assumes that the Greens will continue the coalition. This time it could win a majority of the seats. For the current government elections at this time are the best thing that could happen.
That's not good for the CDU. Their leading candidate will be Federal Environment Minister Norbert Röttgen. If he remains in office, people will wonder if he can work as minister in Berlin and campaign in NRW without neglecting one of the two. Is he perhaps not taking the election seriously? He must resign in Berlin and tell his voters that he loves being opposition leader in NRW if he isn't elected Prime Minister. Trouble is, he doesn't. :-) He wants to stay in Berlin, but the CDU hasn't got a more convincing candidate.
The FDP, short for Fast Drei Prozent (almost three percent) :-) will not take the 5% hurdle, Die Linke possibly won't either. The Pirates could be in for the first time. So, the NRW parliament probably goes Zambia: (Thanks gk)