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by afew Wed Mar 28th, 2012 at 11:53:52 AM EST
New evidence suggests that climate change has led to changes in climate extremes such as heat waves, record high temperatures and, in many regions, heavy 'precipitation' in the past half century.This is according to a major new report by the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC), which was issued on Wednesday.It says that climate extremes, or even a series of 'non-extreme' events, in combination with 'social vulnerabilities' and exposure to risks can produce climate-related disasters.The IPCC report says that while some extreme weather and climate events lead to disasters, others do not.
<sigh> The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
New evidence suggests that climate change has led to changes in climate extremes such as heat waves, record high temperatures and, in many regions, heavy 'precipitation' in the past half century.
The summary puts it like this:
heat waves:
In many (but not all) regions over the globe with sufficient data, there is medium confidence that the length or number of warm spells or heat waves3 has increased.
record high temperatures: ?
The closest is this:
It is likely that anthropogenic influences have led to warming of extreme daily minimum and maximum temperatures at the global scale.
heavy precipitation in many regions:
There have been statistically significant trends in the number of heavy precipitation events in some regions. It is likely that more of these regions have experienced increases than decreases, although there are strong regional and subregional variations in these trends.
Also interesting is a de facto scientific climbdown of the oft-touted rise of tropical cyclones and floods (and tornadoes, too) - but for ET readers that should not come as a surprise.
Who flips through the summary, the description of the current state of climate is actually not particularly exciting, doom wise. Those craving doom should flip to future climate extremes, page 9, to get their fill.
But does the report consider there is evidence of a link between global warming and "extreme" events such as heat waves, local heavy rainfall incidents (leaving the tropics aside), and droughts, or doesn't it?
Is there a suggestion in my post that there is any doubt about this?
As always, I outline the difference in what the press parses, and what is actually said by the scientists - which show more areas of grey.
And no, this is not surprising. But parsing the difference what is touted in the media and what is actually said, is done at ET at a regular basis or even a daily basis with, say, the financial markets or international terrorism policies. That should not be different for a complex and heavily prejudiced topic like climate change.
Read the full report, chapter 3, for a thorough and thoughtful analysis on what is to be considered an 'extreme'.
Your comment certainly didn't make it clear, which I wished to.
Since record keeping began in the late 1800s, there have never been so many temperature records broken for spring warmth in a one-week period-and the margins by which some of the records were broken yesterday were truly astonishing.
Roger Pielke Jr.'s Blog
Over time good science will win out over the rest -- sometimes it just takes a little while. A few quotable quotes from the report (from Chapter 4): "There is medium evidence and high agreement that long-term trends in normalized losses have not been attributed to natural or anthropogenic climate change" "The statement about the absence of trends in impacts attributable to natural or anthropogenic climate change holds for tropical and extratropical storms and tornados" "The absence of an attributable climate change signal in losses also holds for flood losses" The report even takes care of tying up a loose end that has allowed some commentators to avoid the scientific literature: "Some authors suggest that a (natural or anthropogenic) climate change signal can be found in the records of disaster losses (e.g., Mills, 2005; Höppe and Grimm, 2009), but their work is in the nature of reviews and commentary rather than empirical research." With this post I am creating a handy bullshit button on this subject (pictured above). Anytime that you read claims that invoke disasters loss trends as an indication of human-caused climate change, including the currently popular "billion dollar disasters" meme, you can simply call "bullshit" and point to the IPCC SREX report.
"Some authors suggest that a (natural or anthropogenic) climate change signal can be found in the records of disaster losses (e.g., Mills, 2005; Höppe and Grimm, 2009), but their work is in the nature of reviews and commentary rather than empirical research."
One would expect clear evidence of global warming impacts on disaster losses to be lost in the other factors. Which doesn't mean there isn't an effect, but that it's not yet discernible.
That Munich Re itself considers it likely that such losses will increase due to climate change should also be a data point. "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
One would expect clear evidence of global warming impacts on disaster losses to be lost in the other factors.
Except that Munich Re has been proclaiming, loudly, that climate change is already hurting them. Which is now 100% scientific bullshit.
Crazy Horse:
Which doesn't mean there isn't an effect, but that it's not yet discernible.
That's what I have been saying...
European Tribune - Hot air & Hurricanes
Of course this does not mean that disaster losses have no link whatsoever with the effects of anthropogenic global warming, but that, if such a link actually exists, it hasn't been showing in the data available so far - and this attribution hasn't been shown in more recent science publications either.
It's a bit like the difference between criminal law and civil law. DSK will end up paying Diallo, without any crime being proven. It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
It is apparently hard to admit that Re Munich, and other players in the reinsurance branch, are flat out caught pandering bullshit while the companies have a clear financial interest in making such bullshit claims.
This will not prevent actuaries doing their job.
If the balance of scientific evidence gathered by the IPCC points to climate change causing increases extreme temperatures and precipitation, this is unlikely to be neutral with respect to insurance payouts. Of course, insofar as Munich Re are claiming scientific proof of climate change driving increased payouts, they are lying. It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
...let's take the most simple case of a normal distribution that is shifted towards the warm end by a given amount - say one standard deviation. Then, a moderately extreme temperature that is 2 standard deviations above the mean becomes 4.5 times more likely (see graph below). But a seriously extreme temperature, that is 5 standard deviations above the mean, becomes 90 times more likely!
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/03/extremely-hot/comment-page-2/#comment-231912
This suggests that record-breaking extremes are in a sense a precursor to a more generally observable change...
Those craving doom should flip to future climate extremes, page 9, to get their fill.
turning into a stat freak is all, musing on why some OTs takeoff and multiply, and what makes us such a chatty bunch...
and when.
also. It's a fine line between homage, parody, and consumer opportunism. Jess Walter
In other words, wise-assed remarks that don't deserve further discussion?
Please report to the nearest prison to begin your sentence. Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
One of Japan's crippled nuclear reactors still has fatally high radiation levels and much less water to cool it than officials had estimated, according to an internal examination that renews doubts about the plant's stability. A tool equipped with a tiny video camera, a thermometer, a dosimeter and a water gauge was used to assess damage inside the containment chamber of Fukushima Daiichi plant's number 2 reactor for the second time since the tsunami swept into the complex more than a year ago. The data collected on Tuesday showed the damage from the disaster is so severe that the plant operator will have to develop special equipment and technology to tolerate the harsh environment and decommission the plant. The process is expected to last decades. The other two reactors that had meltdowns could be in even worse shape. The number 2 reactor is the only one officials have been able to closely examine so far. ...The probe also found that the containment vessel, a beaker-shaped container enclosing the core, had cooling water up to only 60 centimeters from the bottom, far below the 10 metres estimated when the government declared the plant stable in December.
One of Japan's crippled nuclear reactors still has fatally high radiation levels and much less water to cool it than officials had estimated, according to an internal examination that renews doubts about the plant's stability.
A tool equipped with a tiny video camera, a thermometer, a dosimeter and a water gauge was used to assess damage inside the containment chamber of Fukushima Daiichi plant's number 2 reactor for the second time since the tsunami swept into the complex more than a year ago.
The data collected on Tuesday showed the damage from the disaster is so severe that the plant operator will have to develop special equipment and technology to tolerate the harsh environment and decommission the plant. The process is expected to last decades.
The other two reactors that had meltdowns could be in even worse shape. The number 2 reactor is the only one officials have been able to closely examine so far.
...The probe also found that the containment vessel, a beaker-shaped container enclosing the core, had cooling water up to only 60 centimeters from the bottom, far below the 10 metres estimated when the government declared the plant stable in December.
Wir werden wahrscheinlich die Verfassung Venedigs nachbilden und aus den schlechten Erfahrungen Venedigs vorbeugend profitieren.
Die Jugend (auch die Armen) bekommt englische Spiele: Kricket, Tennis usw., Lyzeen im Gebirge.
Die Hohenpriester werden imposanten Ornat haben; unsere Kürassiere gelbe Hosen, weißsen Waffenrock. Offiziere silbernen Küraß
Moisis Auszug verhält sich dazu, wie ein Fastnachtssingspiel von Hans Sachs zu einer Wagnerschen Oper.
I gots the blues.
Thinking of moving to Yellowknife Canada so I can be eaten by a polar bear before they go extinct. Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
Can somebody expand on this? There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
People who know what they are talking about and attempting to have a rational discussion are being trampled. As usual.
IOW, it's the standard US political discussion wrt Public Policy. Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
Specifically, what is the "expected" basis of the opinion and how does throwing out Obamacare also throw out Medicare? There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
If you accept the premise that Clarence Thomas in particular and the other right wing justices in general see themselves as potential saviors of the country from creeping, unconstitutional socialism, then there is not much in the way of seeing them rolling the clock back to 1930. If that were to happen, there would be a LOT of unhappy people, probably enough to get various amendments through, or, if that is not enough to provide the required constitutional language, then it is always possible to have a constitutional convention. In that case, the whole governmental system is up for grabs...
The Supreme Court properly takes a long view of the justice system, but if that long view is severely anti-federalist, then there is no reason to worry about short-term issues like social security or national parks or anything else that the over-reaching progressives have been cramming down the citizens' throats for the last century....
Plus, a vote to end Medicare would enable the Dems to campaign on "throw the bums out and get proper USSC-proof health care" keep to the Fen Causeway
Sic transit, that's-the-way-it-goes. Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
There's no constitutionally mandated number of judges in the Supreme Court, there just has to be one. FDR threatened to expand the bench back to 13 and the Nine backed down. Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
This is a pretty good indication of how our energy debate in America is driven by oil, gas, and coal public relations bullshit not reality. While our government has been licking around the edges of alternative energy and politely nodding when oil company execs tell us it's not cost competitive yet, Germany has jumped into it in a big way. The result? The peak price of electricity over the course of a day dropped 40%, and 25% of their gas generators may be closed.
This is a pretty good indication of how our energy debate in America is driven by oil, gas, and coal public relations bullshit not reality.
While our government has been licking around the edges of alternative energy and politely nodding when oil company execs tell us it's not cost competitive yet, Germany has jumped into it in a big way. The result?
The peak price of electricity over the course of a day dropped 40%, and 25% of their gas generators may be closed.
Can haz solar? Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
Romney said he has some connections to Wisconsin. "One of most humorous I think relates to my father. You may remember my father, George Romney, was president of an automobile company called American Motors ... They had a factory in Michigan, and they had a factory in Kenosha, Wisconsin, and another one in Milwaukee, Wisconsin," said Romney. "And as the president of the company he decided to close the factory in Michigan and move all the production to Wisconsin. Now later he decided to run for governor of Michigan and so you can imagine that having closed the factory and moved all the production to Wisconsin was a very sensitive issue to him, for his campaign." Romney said he recalled a parade in which the school band marching with his father's campaign only knew the Wisconsin fight song, not the Michigan song. "So every time they would start playing `On Wisconsin, on Wisconsin,' my dad's political people would jump up and down and try to get them to stop, because they didn't want people in Michigan to be reminded that my dad had moved production to Wisconsin," said Romney, laughing.
Romney said he recalled a parade in which the school band marching with his father's campaign only knew the Wisconsin fight song, not the Michigan song.
"So every time they would start playing `On Wisconsin, on Wisconsin,' my dad's political people would jump up and down and try to get them to stop, because they didn't want people in Michigan to be reminded that my dad had moved production to Wisconsin," said Romney, laughing.
"Hello, human Wisconsin voters! I have a humorous anecdote to be related. My father once shut down a factory in Michigan, which was beneficial to the people of your state since you are not from Michigan. Then he ran for governor of Michigan and--you will like this, humans, because it is humorous--during one parade the children in the local marching band only knew how to play a song from your state, Wisconsin, as opposed to the state of Michigan where my father was attempting to gain higher office. This led to some unpleasantries because my father did not wish to bring further attention to his laying off of workers from the state he was now suggesting he lead. Is that not humorous? Yes, screw Michigan, am I right? Now that they have already voted, I can safely say that your state of Wisconsin is a much better state. Your cheese is quite definitely of the correct height. My parental unit was correct in transferring employment opportunities to your state instead of filthy Michigan, where the children do not even know the correct songs."
A study carried out by the UKRC for the RSC about the PhD experience for chemists reveals some fairly unattractive facts that should give heads of chemistry departments serious pause for thought. In particular it can be seen from the figure reproduced here just how precipitous is the fall off in women who intend to continue in research during the 3 years of their PhD, with the figure approximately halving.
Sounds all too familiar to me! Ad astra per aspera
This government continues to astound. Today, they have managed the impossible: to cause petrol shortages without any actual strike. The height of incompetence some might argue - with some confidence. And, naturally, this is perfect diversion from the issue of the NHS, granny-tax and cash-for-access. But here comes another one of my silly questions. Last quarter's growth figure has just been downgraded by the Office of Budget Responsibility to -0.3%. The OBR said they "still expect the economy to avoid a technical recession with positive growth in the first quarter of 2012, although another fall cannot be ruled out given the volatility of quarterly output estimates." Total growth for 2012 is expected to be a shaky 0.8%, so the first quarter's figure is estimated to be minuscule.
This government continues to astound. Today, they have managed the impossible: to cause petrol shortages without any actual strike.
The height of incompetence some might argue - with some confidence. And, naturally, this is perfect diversion from the issue of the NHS, granny-tax and cash-for-access. But here comes another one of my silly questions.
Last quarter's growth figure has just been downgraded by the Office of Budget Responsibility to -0.3%. The OBR said they "still expect the economy to avoid a technical recession with positive growth in the first quarter of 2012, although another fall cannot be ruled out given the volatility of quarterly output estimates." Total growth for 2012 is expected to be a shaky 0.8%, so the first quarter's figure is estimated to be minuscule.
If it means that growth for this quarter is nudged up into an anaemic positive figure and the broader economic incompetence of this shower of Monty Python characters is disguised, it will have been worth it.
They're incompetent fuckwit ideologues, what more do you need?
And they're callous and out of touch, too. There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
Here you can buy everything you need at Malmo's first supermarket - organic style. Vegetables, fruit, fresh fish or meat, as well as frozen products. And if your bag is too heavy to manage, then you can borrow one of the shop's transport bikes and cycle to the hotel with your food. Travel from London Stansted and Edinburgh to Malmö with Ryanair via Malmö Airport - only 30 minutes from the city centre.
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