Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 02:39:02 AM EST
It's the biggie.
328 pledged delegates are up for grabs and a total of 153 unpledged delegates (66 in Ohio alone) will be selected.
The overall situation has shifted slightly to Romney with Gallup giving national support at:
Romney has clawed back to match his previous high. Such as it is.
But Romeny still has the largest plurality of support and the Not-Romney vote is split between Santorum and Gingrich.
Alaska 24/3 for 27
No polling on this race. I know zip about Alaska.
Gingrich leads in all the polls and should grab one-half of the delegates, Romney is second, Santorum third.
No polling. Idaho is home to some of the most RW nuts in the country.
My guess is Santorum and Gingrich will do well EDIT: Drew reminded me Mormons are 28% of the population of the state, so put in Romneys corner.
No polling but Romney was the former governor and he should win it handily.
North Dakota 0/28
No polling. Who the heck knows. I suspect the GOP state party will bring it home for Mittens but I wouldn't be totally surprised if Santorum wins.
Polling is all over the place. The only thing they agree on is Romney and Santorum are within a couple of points of each other and oscillating around 35%. Up in the air, either could take it.
No data. Lots of idiotic Fundie/Cons in Oklahoma. To give an idea, Tom Coburn the junior senator made hay with a claim Oklahoma was having a "lesbian epidemic" in school bathrooms. These people are dumb. Placing my money on Santorum.
Polling gives Santorum the edge. He'll probably take it unless Romney is having a really good night.
Gingrich and Santorum not on the ballot. Romney leads Paul by 43%. Chalk this one up for Mittens.
No polling. Romney's backyard so give him the edge.
Texas (155/3) was scheduled on this date but was pushed because of challenges to a truly obnoxious GOP controlled gerrymandering.
Romney should do well but will he do well enough? He needs to start racking-up some delegates by winning states such as Alaska, North Dakota, Ohio, and Tennessee. If he does take Ohio and Tennessee the race is effectively over.
The best Santorum can do is take Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Tennessee. If he does things stay interesting. But for how long? Santorum is a horrible candidate with a tendency to shoot himself in the foot, gonads, and head with a single bullet.
Gingrich will win Georgia and that's it. Gingrich's only role now is splitting the Fundie-Con vote, siphoning votes from the Other Not-Romney.
Bottom Line: Romney will probably eventually get the nomination. The only question is how long it will take for him to stagger to the finish line and how many unpledged delegates he needs to push him through the tape.