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Super Tuesday

by ATinNM Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 02:39:02 AM EST

It's the biggie.

328 pledged delegates are up for grabs and a total of 153 unpledged delegates (66 in Ohio alone) will be selected.  

The overall situation has shifted slightly to Romney with Gallup giving national support at:

Romney 38
Santorum 22
Gingrich 15
Paul 12

Romney has clawed back to match his previous high.  Such as it is.

But Romeny still has the largest plurality of support and the Not-Romney vote is split between Santorum and Gingrich.  


[Note: pledged/unpledged]

Alaska 24/3 for 27

No polling on this race.  I know zip about Alaska.

Georgia 76/0

Gingrich leads in all the polls and should grab one-half of the delegates, Romney is second, Santorum third.  

Idaho 32/0

No polling.  Idaho is home to some of the most RW nuts in the country.  My guess is Santorum and Gingrich will do well EDIT: Drew reminded me Mormons are 28% of the population of the state, so put in Romneys corner.

Massachusetts 38/3

No polling but Romney was the former governor and he should win it handily.

North Dakota 0/28

No polling.  Who the heck knows.  I suspect the GOP state party will bring it home for Mittens but I wouldn't be totally surprised if Santorum wins.

Ohio  0/66

Polling is all over the place.  The only thing they agree on is Romney and Santorum are within a couple of points of each other and oscillating around 35%.  Up in the air, either could take it.

Oklahoma 40/3

No data.  Lots of idiotic Fundie/Cons in Oklahoma.  To give an idea, Tom Coburn the junior senator made hay with a claim Oklahoma was having a "lesbian epidemic" in school bathrooms.  These people are dumb.  Placing my money on Santorum.  

Tennessee  55/3

Polling gives Santorum the edge.  He'll probably take it unless Romney is having a really good night.

Virginia 50/0

Gingrich and Santorum not on the ballot.  Romney leads Paul by 43%.  Chalk this one up for Mittens.

Vermont  14/3

No polling.  Romney's backyard so give him the edge.

Texas (155/3) was scheduled on this date but was pushed because of challenges to a truly obnoxious GOP controlled gerrymandering.  

Romney should do well but will he do well enough?  He needs to start racking-up some delegates by winning states such as Alaska, North Dakota, Ohio, and Tennessee.  If he does take Ohio and Tennessee the race is effectively over.

The best Santorum can do is take Alaska, Idaho, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Tennessee.  If he does things stay interesting.  But for how long?  Santorum is a horrible candidate with a tendency to shoot himself in the foot, gonads, and head with a single bullet.    

Gingrich will win Georgia and that's it.  Gingrich's only role now is splitting the Fundie-Con vote, siphoning votes from the Other Not-Romney.  

Bottom Line: Romney will probably eventually get the nomination.  The only question is how long it will take for him to stagger to the finish line and how many unpledged delegates he needs to push him through the tape.

Display:
Put up a diary to prevent the Open Thread from getting hammered.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 02:40:20 AM EST
Nate Silver agrees with you.

Super Tuesday Delegate Projection Update - NYTimes.com

This yields an overall projection of 224 delegates for Mr. Romney, which would be a majority. It's now Mr. Gingrich in second place, with 87 delegates to Mr. Santorum's 76.


Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 03:30:07 AM EST
Watching the freakshow from the sidelines with little enthusiasm, I have one question: what are Republican relative majorities attracted by when it comes to Romney? Where do his campaigners beat the opposition? Based on my past on-line exchanges with Republican voters and the little I know of the candidates, Romney should be just boring in their eyes, whatever the amount of money supporting his campaign.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 04:55:38 AM EST
I think it's the residual sanity that wants somebody who is remotely electable.

Aside from that, I can't see it either.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 08:36:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Romney should get some of the NotObama vote.

But otherwise, the GOPers have dug themselves an impressive hole.

If they pick an extremist, he'll do or say something bizarre and kill the [insert name of minority here] vote.

If they pick Romney, they have someone whose powers of blue collar uninspiration are almost limitless, and whose cash reserves are going to be impressively small after an extended primary.

Unless they can pull someone out of a hat, they're not going to win this year.

The best they can hope for is strong local campaigning for Senate and Congress. But if the Dems take those too, they're screwed.

I think Rush and the wrinkly fat guys may have overextended themselves. I'm getting the feeling that they're drifting towards the wrong side of history, and even some of their former supporters are disgusted by what they've turned into.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 08:55:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They also haven't even pretended to come up with an economic plan to help the former and shrinking white middle class as far as I can tell.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 01:16:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We cannot forget the "it's his turn" factor, especially when dealing with Republicans. And the fundies might hate the fact Romney is a Mormon, but the rest of the party are impressed by the fact that he is wealthy.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 09:37:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Idaho 32/0

No polling.  Idaho is home to some of the most RW nuts in the country.  My guess is Santorum and Gingrich will do well.

Doesn't Idaho have the second-highest Mormon population as a share of the overall in the country after Utah?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 08:55:43 AM EST
Good point.  Mormons made-up 23% of Idaho's population as of 2008.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 12:15:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here's a link to Bill Maher's "Crazy Stupid Politics" stand-up routine sponsored by (somebody), and near the beginning he mentions Super Tuesday, saying "that's when the car-on-the-lawn states vote."

Gawd he cracks me up.

'tis strange I should be old and neither wise nor valiant. From "The Maid's Tragedy" by Beaumont & Fletcher

by Wife of Bath (kareninaustin at g mail dot com) on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 11:43:20 AM EST
I've heard from my cousin in Tennessee that a number of Democrats will be voting the Republican ticket for Santorum in that state's open primary.

'tis strange I should be old and neither wise nor valiant. From "The Maid's Tragedy" by Beaumont & Fletcher
by Wife of Bath (kareninaustin at g mail dot com) on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 11:48:17 AM EST
Smart tactical politics IMHO.

Don't think enough people will do it to have an affect, though.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 12:25:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Didn't achieve much in Michigan sadly

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 01:03:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, Bill Maher also predicted that Romney would win the Republican nomination and the Obama would then beat him "like a runaway sister-wife."  heh.

'tis strange I should be old and neither wise nor valiant. From "The Maid's Tragedy" by Beaumont & Fletcher
by Wife of Bath (kareninaustin at g mail dot com) on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 12:15:38 PM EST
Oh, yeah, ROTFLMAO, except that what that says about his head and how it resonates with the surrounding culture is downright toxic.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 12:59:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maher has never been the sharpest spoon in the drawer. He seems to be riding mostly on the fact that the repugs write his jokes for him these days.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 01:27:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
JakeS:
the sharpest spoon in the drawer

?? did you mean 'spork'?

he's pretty funny, though the laughs sometimes feel a bit cheap somehow, like maybe your better side might have wished you didn't, after you did.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 01:55:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maher is uncomfortably cocky with a side dish of OTT and meanness, whereas Stewart, way funnier, is conspiratorial - which is far more effective politically.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 02:46:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
well put. comedy has a way of sneaking past moral boundaries, part of its charm maybe...

once in hawaii i saw a comedian called andy bumatai who had mastered this dark art. he warmed us up with some pretty family friendly stuff, ploughed that furrow till my ribs were aching, then when i was only a giggle away from losing precious fluids control, he turbo'd it up to some truly revoltingly scatological stuff involving ronald reagan and, well i won't go there, except to say it was creative and eliminative in ways.... cont'd p.92.

after i picked up the mess i had become i reflected on this. if he had started where he ended i would have not laughed, i'm pretty sure, but once softened up, i was putty in his hands.

agreed about stewart, basically goodhearted goof with a very strange angle on life.

maher's sly, and quick as lightning, but goes too gleefully in for the kill too often. he is a one-off though, and has that jewish wit that kills me.

both high quality imps, both very entertaining and willing to be transgressive. stewart leaves more to the imagination, underplays it a little, then hams it up with those 'who, me?' wide eyes.

chuckling just thinking about it...

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 03:43:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As I see it, comedy in general works by pitting concepts from different spheres against each other. Expected/unexpected, high/low, moral/immoral and so on...

By laughing the group both resolves the conflict and confirms the cathegories, and thus that you are a group. Probably crucial in peaceful handling of social processes with our cathegory obsessed minds. (Or we can just go OT and stone that which is unpure because it does not fit.)

So yeah, after confirming a couple of times that you are a group by laughing together, it is easier to get laughs instead of revulsion.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 04:11:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
canny hypothesis, works for me...

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 06:29:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
'Sharpest spoon in the drawer' is a perfectly acceptable transmogrification that adds a further resonance to a protocliché. I shall use it myself when the occasion arises.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 02:49:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
European Tribune - Super Tuesday
how many unpledged delegates he needs to push him through the tape.

and piles of repuglican corpses left in his campaign wake... he's trying to nail obama, in theory, but his fire is being more spent fighting off his opposition.

good!

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 01:59:55 PM EST
Biggest reason I'm hoping for the primary to run through to the Convention.  The more and longer they cat-fight each other the greater the chances of turning off a segment of their vote, the greater the chances of the Dems retaking the House.

Not that that implies they will do anything if they take it, mind you.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 02:28:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And the more money the winner burns.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 02:50:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Or rather - how much money the entire Repuglican machine will have burnt.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 02:51:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Andy Borowitz, @BorowitzReport, tweets:

I'm going to call Super Tuesday early and predict that the winner will be a massive douchebag. #SuperTuesday

There it is.  No reason to stay-up late fretting over the results.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 03:15:28 PM EST
I know this sounds totally counter-intuitive but Romney has actually been narrowing the gap on Obama, despite the fact that Obama's approval rating has been rising ever since the Republican circus got going in earnest.

When you see what marketing and negative advertising has been doing for Romney lately, it seems that there is no limit to what a lot of superpac money can achieve. President Romney is not that crazy a scenario at the moment, especially if Bibi decides to bomb Iran in October - and blame Obama for a lack of logistical support.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 03:53:16 PM EST
Unless the Iranians realize it's just the Israelis and don't retaliate, giving the impression that Obama's tactics worked. The Iranians are probably smart enough to put of their retaliation to Nov 7, reducing the pressure on Obama to get involved.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 03:56:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They didn't blink at the thought of putting Reagan into the presidency. I had some very dark thoughts about Iran at that time.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 09:45:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Today's Iran is a very different Iran from the one Carter dealt with, and the geopolitical situation they play in is very different as well. I think they'll suffer a few Israeli planes "unexplained mechanical malfunctions" and leave it at that. That way, both sides get both a symbolic victory and a bloody shirt they can wave in front of their domestic audience, while not actually harming the other side enough to constitute a major escalation.

Sucks to be living or working in the Iranian apartment block or factory that the Israeli planes decide to bomb, and sucks to be the Israeli pilot who gets treated to the sound-proofed basement experience after ejecting over Iranian turf. But killing a few hundred people in pursuit of jingoistic dick-waving is not out of character for jingoistic dick-wavers like Binny Yahoo and his counterparts on the Iranian side of the border.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Mar 7th, 2012 at 01:25:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Narrowing the gap? On the short term, I see nothing but noise. On the scale of months, the gap seems widening (though it's still mostly noise). That said, I wouldn't conclude anything about the actual election before the Repub and Dem campaign machines seriously started throwing dirt and delusion at each other, and, given a rich variety of potential October Surprises, nothing would be certain even after.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 04:10:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The pollster charts I link to are a statistical amalgamation of every reputable opinion poll out there. As such the MOE is much less than for any individual poll. I'm just cautioning against an increasing view on the left that the current repug madness must inevitably lead to an Obama blow-out win. I happen to believe that this is a distinct possibility, but the empirical evidence to support such a view is still very limited, at best.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 04:23:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I guess it depends on how we define "blowout".  I don't think Obama has a prayer in hell of pulling 60%.  The absolute best I can see him getting is 55%.

More likely, I think he winds up with something like his 2008 numbers if he wins.

I personally like the RCP average more the Pollster, because it's not completely obvious to me what the hell Pollster is doing.  On RCP, Obama's still trending up, while Mittens has recovered from his 43% trough to about 44%.

If you throw out the Gallup poll, which has been an outlier this year, it'll look even worse for Mittens.

Remember, too, that Pollster's numbers depend on how much you smooth it (More, Less or Moderately).  Under both the More and Less settings, Obama is continuing to climb, while Mittens is trending slightly downward.  It's only under the Moderate setting that Romney is closing the gap at all -- and that's not because of any movement for him but rather because Obama went down a bit.

The problem is that different pollsters model differently, and they don't poll with the same frequency, so the Pollster numbers can get screwed up.  You wind up with all movement dependent upon fluctuations in Rasmussen's numbers until the next batch of polling comes out from everybody else.

The bottom line on the outcome is that the GOPers are having trouble seeing the upper-40s, while Obama is hanging out around 48-50%.  We've had some good economic news, so Obama's gone up.  If we keep having good news, he'll win.  If the economy slows and job growth trails off (but stays positive), it'll be close.  If we go into recession, he loses.

Nothing's really changed from my perspective, but ask me again Friday after the BLS jobs report comes out.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 04:37:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The RCP and pollster averages are within 1% of each other, and both are better at seeing underling medium term trends rather than short term fluctuations.

I agree the key underlying dynamic has been the economy and the performance of the Republican wannabes in the primary process. It is not clear how the trends will change when a clear GOP nominee emerges and when Obama starts to crank up his campaign.

My prediction would be for a 2008 type victory at best - with the Dems squeaking narrow victories in both houses of congress.  But it's early days yet...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 04:55:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It mostly seems to be noise from the Rasmussen poll, as well as the Gallup poll, which has been much more favorable to the GOP this year than others.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 04:25:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not going into the polling debate, but the fight does give visibility to the republican candidates. So while we might see it as a freakshow, undecided voters (that per definition can consider voting republican) might see it differently.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 05:13:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Way too early to put much faith and credit on general election polls.  

Also: Rasmussen has been shown to strongly favor Republicans for propaganda reasons.  Place no reliance on anything they say.  

I use Gallup because they are reputable AND they tend to give the Worst Case, if you're a Democrat.  Gallup tends to think polled GOP supporters will vote in larger numbers than polled Democratic supporters.  They were correct in 2010, not so much in 2008, and no telling in 2012.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 05:13:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Problem with Gallup is that the live interview pollsters haven't held up terribly well against folks like Survey USA and PPP.

Not that Gallup's terrible or anything.  Just not quite as good.  I still listen to them, simply because they've been doing this shit since fucking Caesar was running for office.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 05:41:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And everybody else thinks they are the Delphic Oracle so they can move the Narrative with one poll.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 06:48:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Damn.

Nate Silver gives Romney a 64% chance of winning Ohio.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 06:58:08 PM EST
But a sign of hope"

In Ohio, 45 percent of Republican primary voters identified as white and evangelical or born-again Christians, according to the exit poll. The same figure was 40 percent in 2008. Pollsters conducted before the election somewhat split the difference between these two figures; in the recent Public Policy Polling survey of Ohio, for instance, 43 percent of voters identified as evangelical Christians, although the poll did not specify whether they were white or of another race.

It's.  All.  Too.  Exciting.

Well, not really but I have to take my fun where I can find it.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 07:01:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So 55% are Catholics and others, which is good for Mittens.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 08:21:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I take my "Good News" as I can find it.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 08:34:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The 5% increase in evangelicals may be due to non-evangelicals leaving the state.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 09:50:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Good point.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 10:00:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Mar 7th, 2012 at 01:18:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Mittens has taken Massachusetts, Vermont, and Virginia.  Romney could win all 38 from Massachusetts and 45, of 50, delegates in Virginia.  

Newt has taken Georgia.  If he gets more than 50% of the vote in any Congressional district he is assigned all 3 delegates, otherwise the first place candidate gets 2 and second place gets 1.  State-wide delegates are allocated to each candidate receiving a 20% minimum of the total state vote then proportionally.  Gingrich's minimum delegate win is somewhere around 29 and maximum around 53.  

Frothy ain't doing so well, holding Tennessee and Oklahoma by less than 'Winner Take All' majority.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 08:33:35 PM EST
Gingrich compares himself to a tortoise in his victory speech in Georgia.

(These people are nuts.)


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 09:07:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Gingrich babbles on.

Shut up, fat boy.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 09:12:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Frothy takes Tennessee, says NBC.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 08:42:52 PM EST
Early sign of trouble for Romney in Ohio?

Nate Silver:

Mitt Romney leads Rick Santorum by about 6 percent in Ohio based on the precincts that have reported so far. However, this vote is in some of his strongest areas, and the margin should tighten as more rural areas report.

About 60 percent of the votes tabulated so far are from Cuyahoga, Franklin and Hamilton counties, home to Cleveland, Columbus and Cincinnati, respectively. But only about 20 percent of the votes in the Republican primary in 2008 was cast in one of those counties, meaning it the current vote count is disproportionately weighted toward these areas.



She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 08:54:26 PM EST
6% of precincts reporting:

Mitt Romney    62,411    38.3%   
Rick Santorum    61,393    37.7%   
Newt Gingrich    24,439    15%   
Ron Paul    12,418    7.6%

18 vote lead is not where the Romney_Bot wanted to be with a large chunk of "his" territory counted.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 09:05:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
16% in Ohio and Man-on-Dog over Man's-Dog-on-Car:

Romney  36%
Santorum 39%
Gingrich 15%
Paul 8%

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 09:19:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
60% reporting:

Rick Santorum 276,526 38.2%    

Mitt Romney 264,062 36.4%       

Newt Gingrich 107,045 14.8%       

Ron Paul 68,145 9.4%

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 10:15:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Mittens is closing the gap in Ohio and most of his counties still have unreported precincts while Santorm's counties are mostly in.

Not looking good for Frothy.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 10:46:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
86% reporting

Mitt Romney    412,041    37.6%   
Rick Santorum    408,263    37.3%   
Newt Gingrich    160,877    14.7%   
Ron Paul    101,464    9.3%

Unless something breaks, and soon, Mittens will win it.

Although I don't know how much of a "win" it is when you get less than 40% of the vote!

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 11:26:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Romney wins Ohio by a little over 12,000 votes.

Mitt Romney    452,575    38%   
Rick Santorum    440,472    37%   
Newt Gingrich    174,119    14.6%   
Ron Paul    110,372    9.3%

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Mar 7th, 2012 at 12:59:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Looking at some poll numbers and one thing struck me, the larger the number of respondents the larger the Santorum lead.

Indicative?  With 15% of precincts reporting:

Romney  27%
Santorum  35%
Gingrich  27%
Paul  10%

it would seem so.  

Gingrich is 'out-punching' his poll number, at this point.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 09:00:32 PM EST
In Oklahoma.

Sorry

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 09:05:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oklahoma called for Santorum.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 09:15:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
To celebrate Frothy's Win! in Oklahoma ...

Here's the words so you can sing along:


VS 1:
GAME ON! Join the Fight
We've finally got a Man who will Stand for what is Right

GAME ON! Victory's in Sight
We've got a Man who Understands that God Gave the Bill of Rights

CH:
Oh, there is Hope for our Nation again
Maybe the First time Since we Had Ronald Reagan
There will be Justice for the Unborn
Factories back on our Shores
Where the Constitution rules our land
Yes, I Believe... Rick Santorum is our Man!

Vs 2:
GAME ON! He's got the Plan
To Lower Taxes, Raise Morale, To Put the Power in our Hands

GAME ON! Change is at hand
Faithful to his Wife and Seven Kids - He'll be Loyal to our land

BR:
Oh It's crazy, What's been slipping through our hands
When we the People are still supposed to rule this Land
Rick Understands

TAG:
GAME ON!

Don't think I've said this recently, so here it is: these people are nuts.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 09:25:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And the blood is flowing already in the YouTube comments.

Game on indeed.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 09:36:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I love the smell of the GOP factions napalming each other.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 09:46:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ATinNM:
Faithful to his Wife and Seven Kids

There's a nasty implication of incest in that.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Wed Mar 7th, 2012 at 03:59:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I have to wonder what constitution they are singing about.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 09:54:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That other US constitution, for some other US, in some other Universe.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 09:59:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Interesting situation developing in Oklahoma.

2,349 vote separation between Mittens and Newt.  Most of Mitten's counties are in; Newt's counties still have precincts left to report.

Mittens is risking a Bronze in Oklahoma.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 10:52:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, Oklahoma IS foam central. Sadly.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Mar 7th, 2012 at 12:13:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Newt wound up shy.  

99% reporting:

Rick Santorum    96,020    33.8%   
Mitt Romney    79,732    28.1%   
Newt Gingrich    78,156    27.5%   
Ron Paul    27,357    9.6%

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Mar 7th, 2012 at 12:29:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Frothy has jumped to an early lead 40% to 26% for Mittens with 16% of precincts reporting.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 09:44:53 PM EST
Santorum projected to with North Dakota
by ElaineinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 10:17:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Go Rickie!

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 10:33:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
nytimes.com as of now, here in ND, has Paul at 27%, and Romney at 25%.

I'm a bit surprised at how well Frothy is doing in ND. I'll be interested to see an analysis on that.


NVA, a viable option when the political process fails.

by NorthDakotaDemocrat (NorthDakotaDemocrat at gmail dot com) on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 10:30:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wondering about possible Dem cross-over, is North Dakota open or closed?  

I'd be real happy to see Romney come in third in ND.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 10:36:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Must be open, as there's been some talk of Dems voting for Paul, according to one of my sources who used to work for Sen Dorgan.

Also we've been inundated with robo calls, (illegal in ND,) which has hit cell phones also. There's no way anyone should have my or Ms cell #s, so I'm thinking "brute force" strategy, as mentioned here, Presidential robo call floods North Dakota phones


NVA, a viable option when the political process fails.

by NorthDakotaDemocrat (NorthDakotaDemocrat at gmail dot com) on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 11:03:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
From the link:

Parrell Grossman of Consumer Protection received the call on his personal and work cellphones and said his office is already in the process of preparing a subpoena to the entity that owns the phone number.

...

"A lot of times, they lease it (the phone number) to someone who then leases it to someone else who may lease it to someone else," Grossman said. "It's like peeling back the layers of an onion."

Even when they do find the final destination of the phone number, the party may claim someone else spoofed the number, he said.

When are they going to start cracking down on this shit?

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 11:18:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Paul 27%, Romney 24%, with 87% reporting. So it's looking more like R is 3rd.

NVA, a viable option when the political process fails.
by NorthDakotaDemocrat (NorthDakotaDemocrat at gmail dot com) on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 11:06:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
99% in:

Rick Santorum    4,339    40%   
Ron Paul    2,938    27.1%   
Mitt Romney    2,639    24.3%   
Newt Gingrich    933    8.6%

I have to say, out of 534,626 estimated Voting Eligible Population 10,849 is a piss-poor turn-out number.  Better than the 9,785 who voted in the Republican primary in 2008.

But not much.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Tue Mar 6th, 2012 at 11:48:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
26% of precincts reporting AND:

Mitt Romney    294    55.7%   
Rick Santorum    161    30.5%   
Ron Paul    13    2.5%   
Newt Gingrich    0    0%

(lol)

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Mar 7th, 2012 at 12:39:15 AM EST
So what are the totals? Is the race over or will the freakshow continue?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Mar 7th, 2012 at 04:35:51 AM EST
Romney won a couple of states and probably the majority of the delegates up for grabs, but Santorum also won a couple of states, and Gingrich won Georgia. So I think it continues.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Wed Mar 7th, 2012 at 05:51:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the win in Ohio is the game changer. Romney may not capture hearts, but by degrees he's slowly pulling away and there will be little the rest can do to stop him.

the whole process will stagger on but I suspect that Santorum's money will begin to falter now he's looking like an also-ran so Gingrich will come forward again in response to his sponsor's as-yet-unknown agenda.

But Romney is the guy, wounded and bloody, he'll take the nomination and then flop badly in november. Hopefully ruining the GOP's Senate, house and State hope in the bargain

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Mar 7th, 2012 at 05:58:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That Mittens was going to get the nomination in the end was always in dead girl/live boy territory. It was clear that he would be able to gain a blocking minority at least, which means a brokered convention. Which he is the best placed to steal, because he has the most friends among those who count the votes in DC.

The question was how long the freakshow would continue before that.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Mar 7th, 2012 at 06:02:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But Romney is the guy, wounded and bloody, he'll take the nomination and then flop badly in november. Hopefully ruining the GOP's Senate, house and State hope in the bargain
And then the GOP will respond by becoming Palin Central?

There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Mar 7th, 2012 at 06:04:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hopefully by becoming an irrelevance.

I can't see Palin remaining a national figure, she's had her 15 million minutes and milked them. She's got what she wanted and will quickly disappear back to whatever rat hole spawned her.

Fox will keep the lunacy alive but I think the GOP is stuck on 33% for a couple of electoral cycles while they create some alliances and platforms that aren't immediately toxic.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Mar 7th, 2012 at 06:16:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
See here
So who does Goldberg think might be ascendant in the aftermath of a Romney licking? "Sarah Palin," he replies. "She's an outsider, she has no Washington or Wall Street baggage, she's electric--and she's waiting, because if Romney doesn't win, she will be welcomed in."


There are three stories about the euro crisis: the Republican story, the German story, and the truth. -- Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Mar 7th, 2012 at 06:18:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
To which I would respond, "Okay, so we're going to win.  Let's find the most liberal candidate we can and run him/her."

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Mar 7th, 2012 at 06:37:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the biographer of Barry Goldwater is hardly an unbiased commentator. imo the idea that she'd be popular now within the GOP is already delusional, but hey, if they wanna try it, be my guest

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Mar 7th, 2012 at 08:27:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Romney may not capture hearts

Because the GOP doesn't have any.

It's not doing so well with finding itself a mind, either.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Mar 7th, 2012 at 06:14:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree.  It'll push on for a bit until the inevitability factor yields Mittens a couple southern states, at which point he'll have won in every region, and there'll be no argument for the others.

Mittens is looking pretty weak right now in the general election surveys.  He was holding his own in Ohio last time it was polled, but NBC has him getting slaughtered in Virginia by 17 points.  And if he's losing Virginia by 17, I suspect he's losing North Carolina by a smaller-but-still-pretty-big margin, given how closely the states match up demographically.

He's losing Florida.  He's getting creamed in New Mexico.  Hell, he was losing Nevada back in late-December (when Obama was in worse position), and that's a state Obama should probably lose since the economy has gone on sucking wind the whole time (unlike Michigan and Ohio where the recovery has been relatively robust thanks to the automakers and a few other industries).

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Mar 7th, 2012 at 06:28:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Keep in mind that the whole point of this distributed, extended primary system is to do exactly what it is doing: Allow the less well funded, smaller candidates to have a chance, and to give all of the states some input into the system. While it may be painful (or enjoyable, depending on where you're sitting) to watch, it is working as intended.

Personally, I think there should be a non-partisan primary system using ranked voting and two or three runoffs. As if that would ever happen...

by asdf on Wed Mar 7th, 2012 at 09:11:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Freak show will continue.

Nothing substantial has changed. The GOP primary voters do not like Romney. Romney is barely winning states without a strong Mormon population using the state party organization and a flood of bucks.  With the Not-Romney vote split Santorum can't win unless Gingrich drops out; Newt shows no signs of quitting.  

And two biggies:

  1.  Both Gingrich and Santorum have enough money to soldier on through June.

  2.  Neither have any incentive to quit.  BUT, there was a report last night (no link) Evangelical leaders intend to have a meeting with Gingrich in the next couple of days to ask him to drop out.  Which is possible but unlikely.  IMO Newt is all about Newt, all the time and it's conceivable Newt has struck a deal with Romney to be the VP if Newt stays in specifically to split the Not-Romney vote.  I have no idea if that last is true, wouldn't surprise me but I've got no way of proving it.

Looking ahead, the rest of this month is Romney-Hostile:

Kansas - leans Santorum

Alabama - leans Gingrich, if not him Santorum

Hawaii - leans Romney

Mississippi - leans Gingrich, if not him Santorum

Missouri (Convention) - leans Santorum if the delegates vote based on the popular vote, leans Romney if the state party controls the vote

Illinois - guessing it leans Romney, Santorum could win

Louisiana - leans Gingrich, if not him Santorum

Shifting to Romney-Friendly in April, Romney-Hostile in May, and Romney-Friendly in June.

Assuming Gingrich stays in:

Romney has (estimated) 415 delegates 'banked.'  He needs 1,144 to win the nomination on the first round.  Leaving him (around) 729 short.  If Romney wins every single delegate from here on out (he won't) it is mathematical impossible for him to clinch the nomination until the Indiana primary on May 8th.  The most likely date for him to reach 1,144 is June 5th when the California primary, among others, is held.  It is conceivable he won't clinch until the Utah primary on June 26.  

So, you'll just have to suffer ATinNM's continual drivel wrt the GOP primary.

(lol)

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Mar 7th, 2012 at 01:08:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ATinNM:
 IMO Newt is all about Newt, all the time and it's conceivable Newt has struck a deal with Romney to be the VP if Newt stays in specifically to split the Not-Romney vote.  I have no idea if that last is true, wouldn't surprise me but I've got no way of proving it.

Which reminded me of this:

Why Is Ron Paul's SuperPAC Headquartered In Mitt Romney's Backyard? - By Mark Ames - The eXiled

Another possibility, as I suggested, is money/oligarchy. You know, those things we all agree now that control our politics. That is why I would suggest that while there may be nothing to it at all, that at the very least it's worth looking into why Ron Paul's SuperPAC is headquartered in Salt Lake City, Utah--you know, the capital of Mormonstan, where Romney's power and influence runs, as you might imagine, fairly strong. Of all the places in the United States isn't it a little bit odd that the Ron Paul SuperPAC is based in Mitt Romney's tribal motherland? Is it really so much to ask the media, all abuzz about the Romney-Paul alliance, to appropriate just a tiny bit of their resources into real investigative journalism, rather than more of the same fatuous, shallow celebrity-magazine fluff?

A few more details to consider here, in case you're curious and not satisfied with the "our wives made us do it" theory:

* Ron Paul's SuperPAC sugar daddy, Peter Thiel, whom I wrote about for The Nation, has a proven track record of using his money to play the cynical game of politics. According to a recent San Francisco Chronicle profile, "libertarian" Peter Thiel is funding a Democrat and former Obama trade official, Ro Khanna, in a primary challenge against anti-war, anti-PATRIOT Act liberal Democrat Congressman Pete Stark.

* Ron Paul's SuperPAC sugar daddy Peter Thiel also funds other candidates supposedly anathema to antiwar, anti-PATRIOT Act, pro-gay marriage libertarians, including frothing pro-war GOP social conservatives Dana Rohrabacher, Ed Royce and Dan Lungren.

* Dr. Paul's SuperPAC sugar daddy Thiel also donated the maximum allowable to the 2010 gubernatorial campaign of Meg Whitman, who was Mitt Romney's campaign finance chair in 2008. Whitman was a protege of Romney's when she worked at Bain capital; later, when Whitman was CEO of eBay, she made Peter Thiel rich when she bought out his PayPal in a deal roundly slammed as bad for eBay, but good for Thiel and Whitman.



Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Wed Mar 7th, 2012 at 02:54:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well I'll be a monkey's uncle.

Thanks.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Mar 7th, 2012 at 04:20:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Virginia was closer than I expected: Mitt only got 59.5%, with the remaining 40.5% going to Ron Paul, probably the highest he'll ever get.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed Mar 7th, 2012 at 04:42:29 AM EST


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