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French Presidential election - first round open thread

by Jerome a Paris Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 04:10:45 AM EST

Today's the big day. After a long campaign (started a year ago with the socialist primaries) with no obvious focus, we'll finally have the vote and the results.

A dominant trend has been a general lack of enthusiasm of the population. Part of that is due to the rejection of Sarkozy, and Hollande's very prudent campaign, but a lot has also to do with the general perception that TINA will prevail and that the election doesn't matter. The more heartening trend, if confirmed today, has been the dynamic surrounding Jean-Luc Mélenchon - providing an alternative narrative which is not the hateful scapegoat-pointing of Le Pen, but a real programme of the left.

So amongst the results to look for, today:

  • obviously, the first question is who the top two contenders will be. While polls show that Hollande and Sarkozy are significantly above the others, a surprise cannot be completely excluded (i.e. Le Pen coming before Sarkozy). And if it's indeed the top 2, who comes first matters to some extent - Sarkozy is certain to lose if he's not ahead of Hollande - and will face an uphill battle in any case;

  • the next question is who comes third - 3 candidates could conceivably claim that position: Le Pen, Mélenchon and Bayrou. Polls favor Le Pen slightly, but votes for Le Pen and Mélenchon are the hardest to predict as, among another things, they attract more first-time voters). Bayrou seems distanced but as the centrist (i.e. center-right) candidate he will be seen as kingmaker;

  • last big question, and possibly the one driving all the others is what the participation rate will be. How many people won't bother to vote, if TINA anyway? And what will be the impact on the various scores? (Low participation would favor Sarkozy as old people vote more reliably and they vote more for him).

I voted this morning and will be helping with the counting at 8pm tonight. Use this thread to post news and discuss results.


Display:
and French media are not allowed to say anything before that time, but numbers will likely seep through on the Belgian and Swiss news sites from 6-6:30pm.

Intermediate participation rates will be officially provided at noon and 5pm.

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 04:12:28 AM EST
Intermediate participation rates will be officially provided at noon and 5pm

Only twice a day?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 06:14:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
yes, the ministry of interior provides national numbers (coming from official data provided by voting offices) at the same time for every election, allowing for comparisons.

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 06:55:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And the date is as follows:

This year:  28.29 %

It was 31.21 % in 2007 (the highest of the past 50 years)
It was 21.24 % in 2002 (the lowest of the 50 years)
It was 27.1 % in 1988
It was 25.9 % in 1981
(both of these elections had >80% participation in the end)

So it looks like we will have decently high participation, which is good news.

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 06:57:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is this the 12h figure?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 07:13:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 09:47:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
national numbers... at the same time for every election, allowing for comparisons

This is not a French speciality. In other countries, however, these standard times for partial turnouts are more frequent, say every third or second hour.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 07:13:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Today: 70.59 %

  1. 73.87 %
  2. 58.45 %

Going towards 80%, which will be a decent number, and likely not good for Sarkozy.


Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 11:24:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Saw this on the way there:

The site says this:


www.22avril-2012.net est une action artistique et politique. Elle se présente sous la forme d'une exposition urbaine, publique, anonyme et gratuite. Elle est une forme d'art contextuel.

L'action ne représente pas un ou des intérêts particuliers. Elle se présente comme un rejet du fonctionnement de notre système politique actuel. Le citoyen en tournant le dos aux candidats indique que ces derniers ne le représentent pas. Par cette action, il signifie que le système politique dans lequel il vit est loin d'être réellement démocratique.

ie - this is a political and artistic act. Citizen turning his/her back on politicians to tell them they do not represent him/her.

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 04:26:24 AM EST

France goes to the polls

France is voting in the first round of a presidential election expected to show a groundswell of support for the far left and extreme right.

For once, "far" sounds better than "extreme"

And we have center right (Bayrou), far right (Sarkozy) and extreme right (Le Pen) on one side and center left (Hollande), far left (Mélenchon) and extreme left (Poutou and Artaud) on the other.

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 04:35:51 AM EST
And once again Eva Joly gets left out.

The French really don't like la Norvégienne ménopausée.

It's not fair.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 04:58:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
She's not left-right, she's green.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 05:36:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That should not allow her to abstain from having an economic policy.

Green policy requires reality-based economic views, so where she falls on the left-right spectrum matters.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 05:43:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bet we're to a large extent talking about media narratives. It's still left/right, and green as an aftethought.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 05:47:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Indeed. But if it is not obvious where the Greens are on a left-right scale, then I would suggest that it is indicative of the sort of muddled non-policy characteristic of compulsive centrist disorder sufferers.

Which, in the current conventional wisdom, makes them fantasy-based.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 08:23:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nobody in France has any difficulty in situating EELV on a left-right scale.

Your opinion doesn't change this.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 09:35:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why is Joly missing form Jerome's left-right spectrum?

And we have center right (Bayrou), far right (Sarkozy) and extreme right (Le Pen) on one side and center left (Hollande), far left (Mélenchon) and extreme left (Poutou and Artaud) on the other

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 09:45:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
but she would be in the center left bit with Hollande.

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 09:47:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is she going to poll lower than Poutou and Artaud?

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 09:56:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
but she only adds a small % to an existing group, whereas the other two are a conceptually distinct group.

My point was that Melenchon was, for once, not seen as as extremist as Le Pen by a Serious publication, which I found noteworthy.

You may consider that my neglecting to mention Joly is noteworthy in that context, or you may consider that she was irrelevant to the point I was making.

Can we drop it now?

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 10:14:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm curious as to your unwillingness to distinguish EELV from the PS as political tendencies.

Do you genuinely believe that the PS are all ecologists now?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 10:20:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Where does this leave your Nobody in France has any difficulty in situating EELV on a left-right scale, then?

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 10:30:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That EELV is on the left, but that all the PS isn't ecologically minded. Same, btw, for a good many Melenchon supporters, and the Trots too.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 10:37:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You are assuming that ecologists are really ecologists.

My experience with a few (do not confuse a few with a full blown generalization, please) "ecologists" of Latin persuasion is that they are the worse ecologists possible: it is NIBMY in full force. Implicit support for sources of energy that are dirty ELSEWHERE.

Surely there are many socialists that probably not ecologists, but then again, so are many ecologists.

In that sense, the (British) Green party seems slightly more at tone with what one expects from a Green party (with an added bonus of being clearly on the left).

by cagatacos on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 10:38:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is not the case with EELV/Les Verts, and never has been. I hope a genuine Green movement can emerge in the Mediterranean countries, and that the brand has not been irremediably damaged.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 12:35:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The ones I am thinking about are easy to spot. Here is a potential recipe:

Lets take the subject of energy

  1. NYMBY has a very strong cause against some form on indigenous electricity production. Say inshore wind in the UK or dams in Portugal. Against train expansion in the UK also.

  2. NYMBY has a lifestyle that requires much more energy than produced locally or in civilized/ecological way elsewhere (think imports from dictatorships, Saudi Arabia, delta of the Niger, ...)

  3. NYMBY will only show concern about distant landscapes/people when points 1 and 2 are noticed. Concern is mostly hypocritical and reactive. Exceptions for token cases (Amazon).

Talking about numbers and energy/environment economics is normally anathema with these people. Not much into comparing their own footprint with energy needs.

Difficult concept to grasp is also that other people far way might have the same right to spend natural resources (i.e. own lifestyle is totally unsustainable goes unseen).

A good example of this (in the UK) seems to be Paul Kingsnorth. A primitivist that seems to see no problem in hoping on a plane to see lost wildlife in the other side of the planet (done it several times). Simultaneously opposes all (or almost) forms of local energy production.

An (opposite) example of a thoughtful green would be George Monbiot (irrespective of the nuclear issue - not the point here): Somebody that understands (i) that people do not want to go back to caves, (ii) brown people elsewhere have the same right to natural resources and (iii) does a clear personal effort/example to spend less natural resources.

I generally have no patience for so called greens that have an industrial lifestyle (and seem to like it) and are not ready to engage in a conversation about the economics of energy production. Unfortunately many "greens" that I know fall on this category (OTOH, here the UK has a good amount of very reasonable green people)

by cagatacos on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 01:59:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But I have no idea who are those nimby-greens you are talking about. Please note, this is a thread about French elections, so this sort of non-specific stuff looks a bit like a smear. Such people don't exist within EELV, if they try to join they don't last five minutes.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 02:01:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I strayed away from the issue. Not my intention.

Especially because there are general comments that are appropriate here:

The green parties are completely out of their time (I consider myself to be green, note well). Cosmopolitan parties are not going far.

This is the time of inward-looking politics. This is the time of Le Pens, Melechons &etc. This is not a time for The Greens, this a time for GUE/NGL. For sovereignty parties.

Of course, there is nothing that forces a green party to be cosmopolitan (staunch localism is very green), but it is in their DNA.

The cosmopolitan greens had their time (as well as the europhiles, globalists, free traders, ...).

Please do not confuse what I like with what I see. But someone with a login of eurogreen will be a lot displeased in the next decade or so. So will I, by the way.

by cagatacos on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 03:07:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
EELV does very well in regional and in European elections, and poorly in national elections. This indicates a very sophisticated, but largely unconscious, understanding of where we are at, on the part of electors : they get the cosmopolitan/localist DNA. I don't expect this pattern to change much in coming electoral cycles. The current loss of relevance of Green parties in Europe is due to the retrograde re-nationalization of politics in general, rather than disaffection on the part of voters.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 03:18:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The current loss of relevance of Green parties in Europe also has to do with their willingness to play junior coalition partner to neoliberal parties and adopt neoliberal economic slogans.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 04:18:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Odd how the voters don't seem to agree.
by rootless2 on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 08:23:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You been looking at the German Greens lately?

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Apr 23rd, 2012 at 01:43:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Depends. If your lately starts half a year ago, you are right. One year ago they probably had their best election results ever. And the party that is the new thing in Germany is the pirates party - not really a party focused on economic or at least not classical economic themes.
by IM on Mon Apr 23rd, 2012 at 02:01:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
and we're watching the Pirates in 'Schland set the record for speed of self-destruction.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Mon Apr 23rd, 2012 at 02:11:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Surely the record is held by Yair Lapid? The son of  Yosef Lapid (leader of a previous failed reform party), he is a television star who was supposed to be the new hope for the "left" in Israel. He seems to have collapsed even before the elections. Among other things, he was accepted to Bar-Ilan (the religious university - and he's supposed to be the anti-religious candidate....) for the Master's program, without ever having done a BA (even Googleburg didn't do that) and tried to position himself in the "centre", between Likud and Kadima.....
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Apr 23rd, 2012 at 02:45:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It looks quite like self-destruction. On the other hand they have won two state elections and are still on course to win two more in May. So all their antics doesn't seem to disturb the voters as of now.
by IM on Mon Apr 23rd, 2012 at 02:55:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If your lately starts half a year ago, you are right. One year ago they probably had their best election results ever.

But that is, in fact, my point: They were not in the Grand Coalition, and benefited greatly from it. Whereas their electoral performance was steadily deteriorating while they were in the Schröder government. Just like the SPD was punished for its grand coalition (a fact which played a major part in the Green gains).

(And of course this is just electoral results - in terms of policy rather than horse-race, coalitioning to the right is an even greater mistake.)

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Apr 23rd, 2012 at 02:20:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They were not in the Grand Coalition, and benefited greatly from it. Whereas their electoral performance was steadily deteriorating while they were in the Schröder government.

Neither of these two claims is true, or at least real trends were more complex.

  • The biggest drop for the Greens was before getting into government, and that due to internal conflict (over calling for 5-DM-a-litre petrol prices): from highs of 12% to a 1998 election result of 6.7%.
  • Through most of Schröder's first term (that's during the Kosovo participation and before Agenda 2010 and Harz IV), the Greens struggled, but started to rise towards the end and significantly improved their result in the 2002 elections to 8.6%.
  • Throughout Schröder's second term, the Greens polled higher than their 2002 election result and did well in regional elections. They fell down in the last weeks of the 2005 election campaign (ending up at 8.1%), due to a last-minute SPD surge to prevent a CDU-FDP government.
  • During the Grand Coalition era, all the hype was about the Left Party. The numbers for the Greens fluctuated, and even with gains to 10.7%, they stayed smallest parliamentary party as the Left Party and the FDP gained more.


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 23rd, 2012 at 03:31:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I do not see any examples of a militant (even mildly) populist left party breaking 15% in any OECD state - for 20 years.
by rootless2 on Mon Apr 23rd, 2012 at 08:02:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And how did that work out, again?

But of course the peak-to-trough part of the life cycle of a centrist party is an outlier and the fault of the splitters on the left, just like the peak-to-trough part of the business cycle is an outlier and the fault of the immigrants.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Apr 24th, 2012 at 02:07:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm assuming "populist" means something like true to its principles.
  • Where do you count Iceland's Left-Green Movement? They got 21.7% last time (2009) and are in government.
  • What about the Socialist Party in the Netherlands? They won 16.6% at the 2006 elections.
  • What about the Left Party in Germany? Although not nationally, they exceeded 15% in state elections.


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Apr 24th, 2012 at 10:24:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
BTW, in the latest Dutch poll, the Socialists are almost level with Labour (26 seats which should be around 17% of the vote), while Wilders's PVV is dropping down. (If only the main government party VVD would drop down, too.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Apr 24th, 2012 at 10:34:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I said I'd count the greens as center-left, not that they were identical to the PS.

Maybe that "center left" category can be discussed, but given that Eva Joly herself considered joining Bayrou's Modem, that Daniel Cohn-Bendit is definitely centrist on a number of economic topics, and the the party has entered into a major deal with the PS to have common candidates at the elections, and possibly to join the government, it's not an altogether crazy characterization.

Again, this does not say anything about the greenness of the PS, just that the Greens are certainly considering being a party in government, which makes them, if not more centrist, at least somewhat pragmatist.

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 11:29:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Coalition governments are the norm. This doesn't seem to result in government parties being ideologically indistinguishable.

The anomalous mode of election of the French parliament certainly means that the PS has the power of veto over candidates nominated by its partners, which has an unfortunate normalizing effect.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 12:38:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
On the offchance you're being serious, allow me to inform you that 90% of members of EELV, including its elected representatives, are to the left of DCB. Probably a majprity are within the same range on a left-right axis as their counterparts in the PS, but heavily weighted to the left hand end.

But I'm pretty sure you already know this, if you think about it a bit.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 01:02:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I did not say I was right, just that it was not crazy (to put the greens in "center left"). If you prefer to say that the Greens are in the far left group, I can respect that.

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 01:10:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Because she is an afterthought in this election.

That leads to a better question: why is she such a non-entity in this election? She was well-known even before she entered politics, so why doesn't she has the same kind of impact on the center-left as Bayrou on the center-right?

by IM on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 11:32:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's been suggested that:
EELV will have a hard time because Joly is not an obvious candidate, and because the Verts have decided to throw the presidential in return for legislative seats


guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 11:59:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep, the leadership of les Verts negotiated legislative constituencies and government participation with Hollande just as Eva Joly began her campaign. She was then hogtied -- couldn't develop her own programme (since the programme had been defined elsewhere, without her). She was hung out to dry.

This boils down to a choice by les Verts not to fight the presidential, in favour of other aims.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 12:11:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, I vaguely remember something like this.
 But if her own party has forgotten , if not forsaken her, the rest of the world can't be much blamed for forgetting her too...
by IM on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 12:19:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No blame was intended in my comment.

It has often been reported that she would throw in the towel, but she went through with it.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 01:43:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This reminds me: our constituency has an outgoing Green MP, Anny Poursinoff, who defeated the incumbent UMP in a special election two years ago, in July 2010.

She will be running for re-election with support from the PS as part of their agreement with the Greens.

by Bernard on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 12:43:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
is not the Greens' cup of tea. I'm sure Die Grunen would have similar difficulties. We're against it on principle.

Dominique Voynet got 3% last time, and nobody called her campaign disastrous. The maximum was Mamère's 5% in 2002, and we took flak for Jospin's failure. It's really a no-win election for us, and I'm receptive to DCB's idea of not running a candidate at all.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 12:43:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It seems that some greens can have a systematic track record of having the most harmful economical/ideological stance of the time: from leninist a couple of decades ago, to neo-liberal/globalist today.
by cagatacos on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 07:04:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I meant what I said as a joke. If I'd known it would spark this kind of pissy, snipery discussion, I'd have shut up.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 10:31:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I know you did.

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 11:25:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But, they're not left - right, they're future - past.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 11:33:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm going to be very curious to see how the vote spread spread turns out with the FdG and FN.  Al Jazzeera had a piece up about how many young Muslim voters may turn out for the FdG.  

I've been looking through the methodology for the polling, and although France prohibits polling based on race and ethnicity, firms do weight the results for demographics.  Which could very well mean that any surge of support among young muslim voters for the FdG could seriously increase the showing of FdG.  

I'd laugh quite hard if FdG made it into the second round and Sarko did not.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 07:05:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think that's rather unlikely, but Mélenchon beating Le Pen (and Bayrou) and grabbing the media narrative would be nice enough.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 07:16:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's certainly my biggest wish for the day.
by Euroliberal on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 08:43:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
here, for shits and giggles.

I was influenced by the campaign for abstention that has been active, at least in Lyon, with posters plastered over those of the official candidates. But my impression is that people are actually more motivated to vote than they like to pretend...

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 07:37:46 AM EST
Just back from voting in London.
Well, you had to earn it: it was a 2 hours queue.

I was with a friend who could have cut the queue as his wife was pregnant, in the end only she cut it and went to a café with another friend who was registered in France, so at least there was conversation and decent weather. But it was a long queue -which is of course encouraging.

At the time, there is a 45 minutes queue in Orsay. That should be good news for the left.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 07:50:13 AM EST
Ten years ago, we went voting at the French consulate in San Francisco: the results (Jospin out, JM Le Pen facing Chirac in 2nd round) were already known since 11:00 AM (8:00 PM in France) because polling was organized on the same Sunday as in mainland France. Also, this was the year when the web site of La Tribune de Genève crashed under the load of tens of thousand of connections from across the border.

Since 2007, voting in all French consulates and overseas territories in the Americas, Caribbean and Pacific up to the International Date Line has been moved to Saturday instead of Sunday. And the folks in Geneva have presumably beefed-up their web site.

by Bernard on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 09:54:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hollande 28
Sarkozy 26
Le Pen 16
Melenchon 14
Bayrou 10
from La Tribune de Genève

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 11:44:49 AM EST
That would be quite close to the latest polls.
by IM on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 11:50:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
these would be exit poll, no?

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 12:35:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Turnout is now expected to be around 80%.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 12:15:02 PM EST
Hollande führt vor Sarkozy in Präsidentschaftswahl - Swisscom
Der sozialistische französische Präsidentschaftskandidat François Hollande ist am Sonntag ersten Umfragen zufolge deutlich vor Amtsinhaber Nicolas Sarkozy in Führung gegangen.

According to RTBF at 16:00 Holland had 27% and Sarkozy 25% of the votes. In Guadeloup Holland got 57%.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 12:28:06 PM EST
In the Caribbean, as in all French territories and consulates West of the Atlantic, voting took place yesterday: this is the case since the 2007 election.
by Bernard on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 12:48:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
gives
Hollande
Sarkozy
Le Pen
Mélenchon, a disappointing 13.5%


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 12:49:35 PM EST
Both at BBC on Friday and n DW last night, I caught reporters reporting in from Paris spreading the narrative that Hollande's win won't be a vote for Hollande or socialism, but a vote against "an unpopular President". Is this the pre-emptive international TINA narrative, or is it a pro-Sarko French elite narrative spread across the world due to Foreign Correspondents' Disease?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 01:02:37 PM EST
this narrative is in fact accurate. Sarko is unpopular, Hollande does't raise much enthusiasm.

But it's also beside the point in large part, because the vote is also ideological.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 01:06:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Tribune de Genève says that AFP is releasing the results it has - but only to foreign clients...

That law (preventing French media from give results before 8pm) is becoming increasingly absurd.

And they say Holland 29 Sarkozy 25, which is nice.

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 01:12:11 PM EST
They also mention Le Pen reportedly at 20% (Ipsos poll).
by Bernard on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 01:22:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
but are these early results, or publication of exit polls?

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 01:30:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The polls don't close before 20h.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 01:34:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
so then partially meaningless exit polling.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 01:35:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
(see below) and it's illegal to publish befor 20:00, precisely because they are accurate.  Partial vote counts from booths that close at 18h. Unfair to voters who vote between then and 20h.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 01:45:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't find the law absurd. What I find absurd is that we tolerate the polling outfits, which are for-profit companies, being present at vote counts and selling the information before the polls have closed. That should be illegal.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 01:47:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In any case, I'm now at my voting booth waiting for the last voters before we count the votes (for free!)

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 01:51:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Much less illegal than trying to prevent any (peaceful) person to be present at vote counts, which I think is a major necessity for fair elections....

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 02:19:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm talking about communicating partial results for profit before voting has closed. This can be made illegal without any damage whatever to democracy. But no : the politico-media class won't think of that, they will continue the current anti-democratic scam where they are supposed to have the monopoly of the secret information until 20h, and bewail the illegal but inevitable leaks.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 02:26:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The thing is that this doesn't happen in France but in other countries...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 02:30:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The polling institutes observe the vote count in strategic polling places, and call in intermediate results. They are always pretty accurate, even the earliest samples.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 01:37:03 PM EST
Sarko has continued to lose support to Le Pen, so he's really stuffed. Even if they allcame back to him in the second round, which they won't, he won't be able to move back to the centre to make up ground from Barou's electors.

If Mélenchon's score is confirmed as around 13%, it's a big disappointment, and probably due to trotskyists drifting home -- haven't seen figures for Poutou and Arthaud, but I expect they'll have about 2% each -- they were polling much lower -- these are wasted votes. As I have already observed, the Mélenchon miracle was heavily dependent on them.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 01:42:28 PM EST
Big disappointment? The last seven polls put Mélenchon between 12 and 15%, and their average was 13.7%.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 01:51:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This would a huge number (2 months ago his supporters were only dreaming of double digits) but there was hope for even more.

Everybody forgot Le Pen but her numbers were, in the end, underestimated as always.

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 01:54:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

According to Tribune the Geneve.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 01:48:58 PM EST
If Le Pen holds above 20% that's a small disaster... what was the difference between the leaked 18h numbers and the final count last time?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 01:53:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I've seen another, on Le Soir de Belgique, that had Sarko/Hollande much closer.

But can't get it to load at present...

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 01:59:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
These are in fact the official estimations at 20:00.

Hollande 3 points ahead of Sarko.

But Le Pen at 20%. The result of Sarkozy's pandering to xenophobia.

Mélenchon at 11.7%. Great disappointment.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 02:11:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
    François Hollande (PS) : 28,4 %
    Nicolas Sarkozy (UMP) : 25,5 %

    Marine Le Pen (FN) : 20,0 %
    Jean-Luc Mélenchon (FdG) : 11,7 %
    François Bayrou (Modem) : 8,5 %
    Eva Joly (EELV) : 2,0 %
    Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (DlaR): 1,8 %
    Philippe Poutou (NPA) : 1,2 %
    Nathalie Arthaud (LO) : 0,7 %
    Jacques Cheminade (S&P) : 0,2 %


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 02:07:20 PM EST

This sucks. Hollande + Mélenchon well behind Sarko + Le Pen.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 02:10:09 PM EST
Expect huge xenophobia over the next two weeks.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 02:13:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Would I be correct in getting the impression that the campaigns so far have been largely dominated by domestic issues? Any debate on the role and future of the EU, and in particular, how the peripheral debt crisis should be addressed?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 02:20:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Almost none...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 02:21:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
PS and Greens are for Eurobonds. Hollande says his government won't ratify the treaty without an accompanying growth initiative. The chattering classes in the media are almost unanimously TINA, so there is little informed debate.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 02:30:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And Bayrou, who is the only candidate strongly against any deficits, didn't poll so well... Although no commentary tonight will notice that.

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 02:31:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Comes down to Bayrou, doesn't it?

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 02:31:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And transfer of Le Pen voters...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 02:32:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Jean Marie Le Pen was interviewed on TV and said "Sarkozy est battu." He wouldn't say who he's voting for in the 2nd round but it's evident that it's not Sarcozy. Sarkozy will not, by any means get all of the FN vote.

Hey, Grandma Moses started late!
by LEP on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 02:55:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
1981, first round:

Mitterand 25.8%
Giscard  28.3%

by Katrin on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 02:40:55 PM EST
But :

1981 : total Left first round : 50.69
2012 : total Left first round : less than 45%

Numbers here.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 02:58:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
2012 total right wing 50+%
by Katrin on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 03:12:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Two remarks:
  • 2012 is no 1981: back then, PCF & MRG were allied to PS (the so-called 'programme commun') and supported Mitterand for the 2nd round, whereas Chirac didn't really wet his shirt for Giscard.
  • The FN was quasi non-existent back then: even though they're on the "right" does not mean at all they're going to support Sarko in the 2nd round; FN voters are about just as likely to vote Hollande or blank.
by Bernard on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 03:48:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And Bayrou should not be counted as belonging to the right.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 04:32:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
With Hollande, Bayrou, and Joly.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 04:49:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We'll keep repeating that for the next two weeks then.
by Katrin on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 04:35:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
When can we expect the first poll after this round of elections? Monday?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 04:50:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, the polls for the Sarko/Hollande 2nd round have been pretty much consistent for months now: 55/45 give or take.
by Bernard on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 04:52:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, the poll below has FN only +17% for Sarcasty, 48% / 31% Hollande / rest spoiled, not vote, etc. And Modern splits basically even, only +6%.

Roughly 20% of roughly 20% is an extra 4%. And fighting raise that risks cutting turning the Bayrou vote to Hollande.

So the race goes on waiting for a massive blunder by Hollande to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
`

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 06:32:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
François Hollande l'emporterait au second tour, selon deux sondages Francois Hollande would win the second round, according to two polls
Selon un sondage Ifop-Fiducial réalisée immédiatement après que les résultats du premier tour ont été connus, François Hollande l'emporterait avec 54,5 % des voix contre 45,5 % à son challenger Nicolas Sarkozy.According to a poll Ifop-Fiducial performed immediately after the first round results were known, Francois Hollande would win with 54.5% against 45.5% for his challenger Nicolas Sarkozy.
83 % de ceux qui ont voté pour Jean-Luc Mélenchon au premier tour se reporteraient sur le candidat socialiste, selon cette étude commandée par Europe 1, Paris Match et Public Sénat.
Moins d'un électeur de Marine Le Pen sur deux (48 %) voterait Nicolas Sarkozy au second tour, 31 % voteraient François Hollande, 21 % s'abstiendraient, voteraient blanc ou nul.
83% of those who voted for Jean-Luc Melenchon the first round would be transferred to the Socialist candidate, according to the study commissioned by Europe 1, and Paris Match Senate Public.
Less than one voter in Marine Le Pen in two (48%) would vote Nicolas Sarkozy in the second round, 31% would vote Francois Hollande, 21% would abstain, vote blank or invalid.
Les électeurs de François Bayrou se répartiraient grosso modo en trois tiers: ils voteraient à 38 % pour Nicolas Sarkozy, 32 % pour François Hollande, 30 % s'abstiendraient, voteraient blanc ou nul.Voters for Bayrou would divide roughly into thirds: 38% they would vote for Nicolas Sarkozy, Francois Hollande 32%, 30% would abstain, vote blank or invalid.
Selon une autre enquête, de l'institut OpinionWay réalisée pour Le Figaro, 44 % des Français ayant voté au premier tour entendent voter pour François Hollande au dimanche 6 mai et 38 % pour Nicolas Sarkozy, tandis que 18% n'expriment pas d'intention de vote.According to another survey , institute OpinionWay conducted for Le Figaro , 44% of French people who voted in the first round intend to vote Francois Hollande on Sunday 6 May and 38% for Nicolas Sarkozy, while 18% express no intention of voting.


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 04:44:34 PM EST
Answered before I asked!

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 04:52:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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