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French presidential election : your prediction

by eurogreen Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 07:30:41 AM EST

No, you don't get to vote, it's just an unscientific opinion poll (tautology alert!)

To help to place your bet, I suggest this summary of opinion polls, and this article on abstention rates (news on participation at midday puts this year's abstention as somewhere between the 16.2% of 2007 and the 28.4% of 2002).

Please comment your prediction in this thread.

This poll closes at 6.30pm French time. Happy voting!


Poll
Pick the first four in the presidential horse race :
. Hollande, Sarkozy, abstention, Mélenchon 16%
. Hollande, Sarkozy, abstention, Le Pen 33%
. Sarkozy, Hollande, abstention, Mélenchon 16%
. Sarkozy, Hollande, abstention, Le Pen 0%
. Hollande, abstention, Sarkozy, Mélenchon 16%
. Hollande, abstention, Sarkozy, Le Pen 0%
. Sarkozy, abstention, Hollande, Mélenchon 0%
. Sarkozy, abstention, Hollande, Le Pen 0%
. Hollande, abstention, Le Pen, Sarkozy 0%
. Hollande, abstention,Mélenchon, Sarkozy 0%
. The leading horse is white, the second horse is red, the third one is a black, the last one is green 0%
. Other (please explain) 16%

Votes: 6
Results | Other Polls
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It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 07:44:15 AM EST
As I don't get the abstention lark, I reckon, Hollande, Sarko, Melenchon, Le pen

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 11:59:19 AM EST
Same here, but I'm simply following the flock.

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 12:05:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I seem to be too subtle for you people?? Surely not!!

Somewhere from 15 to 25% of registered voters will not vote. A score comparable to those of the first four candidates.

In any case, I'm opposed to the election of the president by universal suffrage, so it's all the same to me.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 12:28:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's right, two out of six got the order right: early estimations give

Hollande, 28%
Sarkozy, 25%
Abstention, 20%
Le Pen, 17%

A tight race.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 01:15:06 PM EST
Methinks the figures for the politicians are percentages of valid votes, which should be around 79% of all voters. So abstention may have outdone Sarko.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 22nd, 2012 at 05:59:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In the final(?) count, 9,479,515 Sarko voters still beat the 8,673,606 abstentions.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 23rd, 2012 at 03:35:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually Non voters are 9 451 687, and invalid votes are 700 119, The sum is ahead of Sarkozy and 100 000 less than Hollande votes...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Mon Apr 23rd, 2012 at 08:57:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But, that is lumping together non-voters and vote-noners!!!

I'd put it at Sarkozy narrowly edging out non-voters. However, I'd guess that Vote-noners may have come around eighth, possibly beating out NPA, and certainly beat out the bottom three.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Apr 23rd, 2012 at 12:48:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I wouldn't add invalid votes as those include errors, not just conscious blank voters. The original (official) source was refreshed again, now it's 9,453,427 abstentions and 9,754,316 Sarko voters.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 23rd, 2012 at 02:09:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's very hard making an unwilling error in the French polling system (which is very basic), and blank voter is quite usual. As my memory of counting the votes go, blank votes are mostly empty envelopes, actual blank papers... The number of "unvoluntary blank votes" is probably on the order of Cheminade voters at most.


Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Mon Apr 23rd, 2012 at 06:36:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Still, its a distinct thing, and so shouldn't be lumped together with the not-voters until the 2nd round.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Mon Apr 23rd, 2012 at 08:33:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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