Yet, we just had the London mayor election, that was significantly closer, and it was reported as Johnson being clear favourite, pretty much certain to win and all that.

Similarly, tories had been talked up a lot before the last general election.

It seems that the standards are different whether a man from the left or the right is leading.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

Official numbers at 8pm.

Wind power

This is when the first exit polls results should be available. By law, all poll results and estimates are embargoed until 8:00 PM (i.e. closing time of the last polling stations), but our neighbors are not bound by these rules (Brussels & Geneva).

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.

After hearing that Marine Himler said she would abstain, I kind of formed an idea that whatever abnormal abstention would be from the crazies which would be good for PS.
Of course, historically more votes tend to favor parties to the left.
We'll see.

18h01 De notre envoyé spécial à Paris, depuis la salle de la Mutualité (où Sarkozy doit parler): "De source diplomatique, il nous revient que l'UMP a annulé le rassemblement populaire prévu ce soir place de la Concorde".

18:15  

Pour les préparatifs de fête de la victoire, avantage Bastille contre Concorde. A l'approche de l'annonce des résultats à 20h, on s'agite depuis le courant de l'après-midi, place de la Bastille et à la Concorde à Paris. Mais on semble plus avancés dans le camp de François Hollande que dans celui de Nicolas Sarkozy. Les grues s'affairent à la Bastille, où le candidat socialiste doit fêter sa victoire s'il est élu, et des ouvriers édifient une grande scène. Lieu symbolique pour la gauche, c'est sur cette place qu'en 1981 les socialistes avaient fêté l'élection de François Mitterrand. A la Concorde, où Nicolas Sarkozy avait triomphé en 2007, une demi-douzaine de camions satellitaires déploient leurs câbles et positionnent leurs antennes. Mais aucun militant de l'UMP n'est visible sur la place livrée aux badauds et touristes.

18:25  

De plus en plus de sources confirment la victoire de François Hollande. De tous les chiffres qui circulent, aucun ne donne Sarkozy vainqueur, pas même les deux candidats au coude à coude. François Hollande l'emporterait avec un score oscillant, selon les sources, entre 52% et 55% ; ce qui place le score que ferait le socialiste au-delà de la marge d'erreur propre aux sondages.

Présidentielle 2012 Selon notre correspondante permanente à Paris, tous les sondeurs donnent Hollande vainqueur à 52,5 %, sauf CSA et Sofres à 53%. Des chiffres à prendre avec la plus grande prudence, mais qui confirment les chiffres déjà indiquées plus tôt.

19:04  

Comme au premier tour, l'AFP (Agence France Presse) envoie à ses abonnés les informations sur l'élection de François Hollande, leur laissant la responsabilité de les publier avant l'embargo de 20h. Voici la dépêche que vient de diffuser l'AFP: «Le socialiste François Hollande a été élu dimanche président de la République, recueillant entre 52 et 53,3% des suffrages au second tour de la présidentielle, d'après les estimations de quatre instituts de sondages. Selon les instituts CSA, TNS Sofres et Ipsos, le candidat PS a obtenu 52% des voix contre 48% à son rival UMP, le président sortant Nicolas Sarkozy. Les estimations de Harris Interactive variaient entre 52,7 et 53,3% en faveur du candidat socialiste.»

http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,554303,00.html

Especiaally with the amplifying effect of the forthcoming legislatives.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II}

So anything under 51-49 might be "close" but we are not there today.

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.

But he did not seem to be feeling much.

Wind power

lol

Wind power

Comparing with the first Mitterand government is unconvincing, that government was applying a leftwing programme involving extensive nationalisation of the economy, banks and finance included.  

Now, the fact that Labour doesn't say that the situation is wrong is also sad.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

I remember during the runup to our 2003 eurozone referendum, when the leftist crazies ranted about this non-stop. Seems they were actually the ones who were right.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.

>This ties in neatly with their spin of the FDP "new self-confidence" (of losing 6%) and the sobering up of the SDP (after its gains.)<

But is correct. The last state election in Schleswig-Hostein was combined ith the federal election. And so the SPD had like in the federal election a very low result, while the FDP had a abnormally high result. Historically 8.3% in Schleswig-Holstein is quite good and they did beat expectations. And 30.4% is historically still quite bad for the SPD and the expectations were higher.

That said how much the historical results still matter in a six party system is up to debate. And the FDP will leave the state government, while the SPD will get in and if the three party coalition with greens and SSW works, all will be well (wellish?).

During his campaign, Hollande repeatedly evoked France's greatness.

This is simply untrue.

In one of the articles, can't find it now, Spiggle even used the phrase "there is no alternative." In fact, was the phrase there last night and no longer there this morning?

Final paragraph of the article posted by epochepoque yesterday:

Millions Left Behind in Boom: What Politicians Have to Do - SPIEGEL ONLINE

Indeed, what's needed is nothing less than a change in the system so radical that it would make the painful Hartz reforms (named after former Volkswagen exectuve Peter Hartz, who advised the Schröder government closely on its ambitious structural reforms) seem like cosmetic surgery by comparison. Hilmar Schneider, director of labor market policy at the Bonn-based Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) and one of Germany's best-known employment experts, agrees. He notes that there is no alternative to making the working world more flexible, adding: "The days of small changes are over."