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by Jerome a Paris Wed May 9th, 2012 at 12:25:02 PM EST
Any thing inspiring you today?
A backlash against austerity in Europe, a move toward greater state control in Latin America, a change in leadership at the World Bank: this might seem slender evidence for a Copernican revolution in economics. The evidence for overturning orthodoxy might even have seemed stronger in 1999, when the Asian financial crisis... Moreover, a number of leaders like Barack Obama are styling themselves as Tyco Brahe, the Danish astronomer who attempted to combine both Ptolemy and Copernicus into an untenable geo-heliocentric system. These modern-day Brahes want to preserve the Washington consensus with only a few modifications.
Tycho was principally concerned with making accurate measurements and producing almanacs. (And indeed Kepler used Tycho's data to postulate his three laws.)
That Tycho came out in support of the Ptolemaic picture had to do with him underestimating the distance to the fixed stars - an error that even much later scientists who really should have known better have also committed. When he used his state of the art measurements to look for the parallax and failed to find it, he took it, quite reasonably, as a falsification of the Copernican picture.
- Jake If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.
Cripes I hate this automatic spell fixing stuff...
NEW YORK, NY, Apr 23, 2012 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) -- In a lawsuit alleged to involve the largest money laundering network in United States history, Spire Law Group, LLP -- on behalf of home owners across the Country -- has filed a mass tort action in the Supreme Court of New York, County of Kings. Home owners across the country have sued every major bank servicer and their subsidiaries -- formed in countries known as havens for money laundering such as the Cayman Islands, the Isle of Man, Luxembourg and Malaysia -- alleging that while the Obama Administration was publicly encouraging loan modifications for home owners, it was privately ratifying the formation of these shell companies in violation of the United States Patriot Act, and State and Federal law. The case further alleges that through these obscure foreign companies, Bank of America, J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo Bank, Citibank, Citigroup, One West Bank, and numerous other federally chartered banks stole hundreds of millions of dollars of home owners' money during the last decade and then laundered it through offshore companies. The complaint, Index No. 500827, was filed by Spire Law Group, LLP, and several of the Firm's affiliates and partners across the United States. Far from being ambiguous, this is a complaint that "names names." Indeed, the lawsuit identifies specific companies and the offshore countries used in this enormous money laundering scheme. Federally Chartered Banks' theft of money and their utilization of offshore tax haven subsidiaries represent potential FDIC violations, violations of New York law, and countless other legal wrongdoings under state and federal law. "The laundering of trillions of dollars of U.S. taxpayer money -- and the wrongful taking of the homes of those taxpayers -- was known by the Administration and expressly supported by it. Evidence uncovered by the plaintiffs revealed that the Administration ignored its own agencies' reports -- and reports from the Department of Homeland Security -- about this situation, dating as far back as 2010. Worse, the Administration purported to endorse a 'national bank settlement' without disclosing or having any public discourse whatsoever about the thousands of foreign tax havens now wholly owned by our nation's banks. Fortunately, no home owner is bound to enter into this fraudulent bank settlement," stated Eric J. Wittenberg of Columbus, Ohio -- a noted trial lawyer, author and student of US history -- on behalf of plaintiffs in the case. The suing home owners reveal how deeply they were defrauded by bank and governmental corruption -- and are suing for conversion, larceny, fraud, and for violations of other provisions of New York state law committed by these financial institutions and their offshore counterparts.
Far from being ambiguous, this is a complaint that "names names." Indeed, the lawsuit identifies specific companies and the offshore countries used in this enormous money laundering scheme. Federally Chartered Banks' theft of money and their utilization of offshore tax haven subsidiaries represent potential FDIC violations, violations of New York law, and countless other legal wrongdoings under state and federal law.
"The laundering of trillions of dollars of U.S. taxpayer money -- and the wrongful taking of the homes of those taxpayers -- was known by the Administration and expressly supported by it. Evidence uncovered by the plaintiffs revealed that the Administration ignored its own agencies' reports -- and reports from the Department of Homeland Security -- about this situation, dating as far back as 2010. Worse, the Administration purported to endorse a 'national bank settlement' without disclosing or having any public discourse whatsoever about the thousands of foreign tax havens now wholly owned by our nation's banks. Fortunately, no home owner is bound to enter into this fraudulent bank settlement," stated Eric J. Wittenberg of Columbus, Ohio -- a noted trial lawyer, author and student of US history -- on behalf of plaintiffs in the case.
The suing home owners reveal how deeply they were defrauded by bank and governmental corruption -- and are suing for conversion, larceny, fraud, and for violations of other provisions of New York state law committed by these financial institutions and their offshore counterparts.
Additionally, the Seventh Amendment regarding civil cases forbids re-examination of facts found in jury trials "in any Court of the United States, than according to common law." But what are mere technicalities like the Constitution and Bill of Rights compared to the interests of powerful corporations who are major political contributors? We will see. As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
-Yes: Publilius Syrus.
"Quod quisque possit, nisi tentando nesciat" That of which one is able, one can only know if one tries it.
It was in the works since 2009, but this could probably end up as the killing stroke.
A tiresome battle, though, and it won't change much on our current knowledge of climate change - although it will cloud attempts to compare the current temperature increase with similar episodes in recent history.
In space nobody can hear you scream there is no climate to affect red shift (unless you believe in tired light) keep to the Fen Causeway
The problem is twofold: what are the criteria for some data to be used ignore other datapoints and, more important, does the final result helps you to say something relevant?
In this study, the answer on the latter is moving to "No".
You can't do that.
Take it back, you can if you don't care if your Model is congruent to the phenomena under analysis. Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
We can see this, if we bother to get our heads outta our Probability Charts, in/with/using:
Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
[Emphasis Added]
Connecting the dots between human-caused climate change and extreme weather events is fraught with difficulty and uncertainty. One the one hand, the underlying physics is clear--the huge amounts of heat-trapping gases like carbon dioxide humans have pumped into the atmosphere must be already causing significant changes to the weather. But the weather has huge natural variations on its own, without climate change. So, communicators of the links between climate change and extreme weather need to emphasize how climate change shifts the odds. We've loaded the dice towards some types of extreme weather events, by heating the atmosphere to add more heat and moisture. This can bring more extreme weather events like heat waves, heavy downpours, and intense droughts. What's more, the added heat and moisture can change atmospheric circulation patterns, causing meanders in the jet stream capable of bringing longer-lasting periods of extreme weather. As I wrote in my post this January, Where is the climate headed?, "The natural weather rhythms I've grown to used to during my 30 years as a meteorologist have become significantly disrupted over the past few years. Many of Earth's major atmospheric circulation patterns have seen significant shifts and unprecedented behavior; new patterns that were unknown have emerged, and extreme weather events were incredibly intense and numerous during 2010 - 2011.
Long term weather prediction using Global Warming is more accurate than weather prediction without Global Warming. Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
Sticking fingers in ears and screaming, "LA! LA! LA! I CAN'T HEAR YOU!" also helps. Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
What's the argument they're using?
Alarming cracks are starting to penetrate deep into the scientific edifice. They threaten the status of science and its value to society. And they cannot be blamed on the usual suspects -- inadequate funding, misconduct, political interference, an illiterate public. Their cause is bias, and the threat they pose goes to the heart of research. Bias is an inescapable element of research, especially in fields such as biomedicine that strive to isolate cause-effect relations in complex systems in which relevant variables and phenomena can never be fully identified or characterized. Yet if biases were random, then multiple studies ought to converge on truth. Evidence is mounting that biases are not random. A Comment in Nature in March reported that researchers at Amgen were able to confirm the results of only six of 53 'landmark studies' in preclinical cancer research (C. G. Begley & L. M. Ellis Nature 483, 531-533; 2012). For more than a decade, and with increasing frequency, scientists and journalists have pointed out similar problems. Early signs of trouble were appearing by the mid-1990s, when researchers began to document systematic positive bias in clinical trials funded by the pharmaceutical industry. Initially these biases seemed easy to address, and in some ways they offered psychological comfort. The problem, after all, was not with science, but with the poison of the profit motive. It could be countered with strict requirements to disclose conflicts of interest and to report all clinical trials. Yet closer examination showed that the trouble ran deeper. Science's internal controls on bias were failing, and bias and error were trending in the same direction -- towards the pervasive over-selection and over-reporting of false positive results. The problem was most provocatively asserted in a now-famous 2005 paper by John Ioannidis, currently at Stanford University in California: 'Why Most Published Research Findings Are False' (J. P. A. Ioannidis PLoS Med. 2, e124; 2005). Evidence of systematic positive bias was turning up in research ranging from basic to clinical, and on subjects ranging from genetic disease markers to testing of traditional Chinese medical practices.
Alarming cracks are starting to penetrate deep into the scientific edifice. They threaten the status of science and its value to society. And they cannot be blamed on the usual suspects -- inadequate funding, misconduct, political interference, an illiterate public. Their cause is bias, and the threat they pose goes to the heart of research.
Bias is an inescapable element of research, especially in fields such as biomedicine that strive to isolate cause-effect relations in complex systems in which relevant variables and phenomena can never be fully identified or characterized. Yet if biases were random, then multiple studies ought to converge on truth. Evidence is mounting that biases are not random. A Comment in Nature in March reported that researchers at Amgen were able to confirm the results of only six of 53 'landmark studies' in preclinical cancer research (C. G. Begley & L. M. Ellis Nature 483, 531-533; 2012). For more than a decade, and with increasing frequency, scientists and journalists have pointed out similar problems.
Early signs of trouble were appearing by the mid-1990s, when researchers began to document systematic positive bias in clinical trials funded by the pharmaceutical industry. Initially these biases seemed easy to address, and in some ways they offered psychological comfort. The problem, after all, was not with science, but with the poison of the profit motive. It could be countered with strict requirements to disclose conflicts of interest and to report all clinical trials.
Yet closer examination showed that the trouble ran deeper. Science's internal controls on bias were failing, and bias and error were trending in the same direction -- towards the pervasive over-selection and over-reporting of false positive results. The problem was most provocatively asserted in a now-famous 2005 paper by John Ioannidis, currently at Stanford University in California: 'Why Most Published Research Findings Are False' (J. P. A. Ioannidis PLoS Med. 2, e124; 2005). Evidence of systematic positive bias was turning up in research ranging from basic to clinical, and on subjects ranging from genetic disease markers to testing of traditional Chinese medical practices.
Now it behooves me, of course, to tell you what they're missing. But it would be just about as difficult to explain to the South Sea Islanders how they have to arrange things so that they get some wealth in their system. It is not something simple like telling them how to improve the shapes of the earphones. But there is one feature I notice that is generally missing in cargo cult science. That is the idea that we all hope you have learned in studying science in school--we never explicitly say what this is, but just hope that you catch on by all the examples of scientific investigation. It is interesting, therefore, to bring it out now and speak of it explicitly. It's a kind of scientific integrity, a principle of scientific thought that corresponds to a kind of utter honesty--a kind of leaning over backwards. For example, if you're doing an experiment, you should report everything that you think might make it invalid--not only what you think is right about it: other causes that could possibly explain your results; and things you thought of that you've eliminated by some other experiment, and how they worked--to make sure the other fellow can tell they have been eliminated. ... One example of the principle is this: If you've made up your mind to test a theory, or you want to explain some idea, you should always decide to publish it whichever way it comes out. If we only publish results of a certain kind, we can make the argument look good. We must publish both kinds of results.
I say that's also important in giving certain types of government advice. Supposing a senator asked you for advice about whether drilling a hole should be done in his state; and you decide it would be better in some other state. If you don't publish such a result, it seems to me you're not giving scientific advice. You're being used. If your answer happens to come out in the direction the government or the politicians like, they can use it as an argument in their favor; if it comes out the other way, they don't publish it at all. That's not giving scientific advice.
Nowadays there's a certain danger of the same thing happening, even in the famous (?) field of physics. I was shocked to hear of an experiment done at the big accelerator at the National Accelerator Laboratory, where a person used deuterium. In order to compare his heavy hydrogen results to what might happen with light hydrogen" he had to use data from someone else's experiment on light hydrogen, which was done on different apparatus. When asked why, he said it was because he couldn't get time on the program (because there's so little time and it's such expensive apparatus) to do the experiment with light hydrogen on this apparatus because there wouldn't be any new result. And so the men in charge of programs at NAL are so anxious for new results, in order to get more money to keep the thing going for public relations purposes, they are destroying--possibly--the value of the experiments themselves, which is the whole purpose of the thing. It is often hard for the experimenters there to complete their work as their scientific integrity demands. ... This man also speaks about a new institution, in a talk in which he was resigning as Director of the Institute of Parapsychology. And, in telling people what to do next, he says that one of the things they have to do is be sure they only train students who have shown their ability to get PSI results to an acceptable extent-- not to waste their time on those ambitious and interested students who get only chance results. It is very dangerous to have such a policy in teaching--to teach students only how to get certain results, rather than how to do an experiment with scientific integrity.
That their attempts fail a lot is... not surprising, shall we say.
Orac has a takedown here.
And, unsurprisingly given the venue of publication, they don't mention that this is mainly a problem with top-tier journals who are extremely focused on novelty. Second-tier journals is where most of the replication (or not) actually happens.
Preclinical research has a problem, but that doesn't mean religion is better : Respectful Insolence
Still, the problems with Begley and Ellis' article notwithstanding, they do provide useful information and identify what appears to be a serious problem. The problem is not so much that so few basic science discoveries end up as drugs, courtesy of Amgen or one of its big pharma competitors. Rather, it's the sloppiness that is too common in the scientific literature, coupled with publication bias, investigator biases, and the proliferation of screening experiments done to identify genomic targets and small molecules with biological effects that has turned into the proverbial fire hose of data, often many terrabytes per screen.
Emphasis mine.
Wasn't this the whole point of the Nature commentary?! Grief.
The take-home point they wanted to make is "this is really bad." The honest assessment is "we can do better."
Those statements are different in kind, not merely in scope.
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2012/05/yamalian-yawns/#more-11699
French President-elect François Hollande is not the marrying type. But as he prepares to take office heFrançois Hollande is the first French president-elect to enter office unmarried and living with his partner. If he chooses to remain unmarried, this would demonstrate a fundamental change in the institution of the French presidency. French President-elect François Hollande is not the marrying type. But as he prepares to take office he will come under pressure to formalise his relationship with his partner Valerie Trierweiler.
French President-elect François Hollande is not the marrying type.
But as he prepares to take office heFrançois Hollande is the first French president-elect to enter office unmarried and living with his partner. If he chooses to remain unmarried, this would demonstrate a fundamental change in the institution of the French presidency.
But as he prepares to take office he will come under pressure to formalise his relationship with his partner Valerie Trierweiler.
keep to the Fen Causeway
Rep. Michele Bachmann is now officially a Swiss miss. Bachmann (R-Minn.) recently became a citizen of Switzerland, making her eligible to run for office in the tiny European nation, according to a Swiss TV report Tuesday. Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0512/76072.html#ixzz1uOvDv1SS Arthur Honegger, a reporter for public broadcaster Schweizer Fernsehen, told POLITICO the Swiss consulate in Chicago has confirmed that the former Republican presidential candidate became a citizen March 19. (PHOTOS: Michele Bachmann) The Swiss consulate in Chicago covers the state of Minnesota, which Bachmann represents. Marcus Bachmann, the congresswoman's husband since 1978, reportedly was eligible for Swiss citizenship due to his parents' nationality -- but only registered it with the Swiss government Feb. 15. Once the process was finalized on March 19, Michele automatically became a citizen as well, according to Honegger.
Bachmann (R-Minn.) recently became a citizen of Switzerland, making her eligible to run for office in the tiny European nation, according to a Swiss TV report Tuesday.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0512/76072.html#ixzz1uOvDv1SS
Arthur Honegger, a reporter for public broadcaster Schweizer Fernsehen, told POLITICO the Swiss consulate in Chicago has confirmed that the former Republican presidential candidate became a citizen March 19.
(PHOTOS: Michele Bachmann)
The Swiss consulate in Chicago covers the state of Minnesota, which Bachmann represents.
Marcus Bachmann, the congresswoman's husband since 1978, reportedly was eligible for Swiss citizenship due to his parents' nationality -- but only registered it with the Swiss government Feb. 15. Once the process was finalized on March 19, Michele automatically became a citizen as well, according to Honegger.
Does she know they have state healthcare and recognise gay partnerships ? keep to the Fen Causeway
Each Swiss citizen belongs specifically to a canton, and Bachmann's is the canton of Thurgau in Northeast Switzerland.
Die erzkonservative Michele Bachmann ist seit zwei Wochen Schweizer Bürgerin. Schuld daran ist ihr Mann.
The video does not yet appear to be live (update: see top of post) at this link on the ABC News site, but the text on the page read: "Obama: 'Same-Sex Marriage Should be Legal'" with a blurb reading "President says his position on marriage has evolved." George Stephanopoulos and Diane Sawyer are apparently going to interrupt regular ABC programming at 3PM for the announcement.
Keep firing up the white geezers, y'all! RT @gilbertjasono: Fox Nation is not taking this news well at all: yfrog.com/kkov6rp
I just now saw the news on this. I was surprised. I figured Obama would wait until after the election to decide he was for it.
C'mon, he's a Democratic professor from Chicago who doesn't seem to go to church anymore. There was never really any doubt in my mind that he supported same-sex marriage. It was just a question of whether he'd ever have the stones to say so. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
But he couldn't wrap his head around two guys being "married", that just seemed wrong to him keep to the Fen Causeway
And having the president in favor of it lends a kind of inevitability to it. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
I still believe that the former Vice President is a decent man and a patriot, despite what his opponents say. But when you've managed to freak out Dick Cheney with a war plan that is too wantonly violent, you've probably crossed a line somewhere.
I think having enough to pretty much wipe out mankind is quite enough. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
It's not an "Oh, we have to kill as few people as possible so we can move on when it's over" thing. It's an "I'm going to try to kill all of them and hope people in Rolla live long enough to keep the country going" thing.
If it doesn't justify that, it doesn't justify launching nukes. Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
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