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Sunday Open Thread

by ceebs Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 10:51:51 AM EST

In the Warm and Dry


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I nearly went to Wales this weekend, but had a ten mile walk booked instead.  (Pictures to come) Good job I didn't go.

Summer 2012 Part 1: The Great Flood of June 9th 2012: off the scale!

June 10th 2012: this is a bit of a collaborative post with Aberystwyth-based photographer Keith Morris to whom I am grateful for permission to use some of his images as between us we got to where we could in order to record an extraordinary severe weather event that affected a fairly small part of Mid-Wales from the early hours of Saturday June 9th onwards.

Rain set in on the night of June 7-8 as a deep area of low pressure off the SW of England moved NE straight across Wales, bringing severe gales especially to the south-western coastal areas during the 8th. The low had moved off into the North Sea by the evening of the 8th but its trailing occluded front continued to sit over Mid-Wales overnight before finally drifting off northwards later on the 9th. The rain finally died out late morning on the 9th, almost 36 hours after it started. The area affected is shown by the map below; place-names are in black and river-names are in blue:


Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 10:54:58 AM EST
It's been quite pleasant here NE of London for the last 24 hrs.

I went to the London Green Fair yesterday. Long on music and food, quite a few over-priced craft stalls and a few not-quite-as-informative-as-they-evidently-thought campaign stalls. there was one where I genuinely couldn't work out what it was they about, let alone whether they were for or against it. Asking just seemed impolite, intruding on a private grief.

So, being generally underwhelmed I went and had a few beers and got pretty whelmed

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 11:35:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not any more.... And on top of it, the Northern Line was closed and we had to change to a bus in Hamsptead, and again in Golders Green. With no information where to catch the next bus, of course. London Transport never changes.

BTW, St. Pancras has excellent free WiFi, but I really should find some alternatives. Outdoor parks don't seem a good idea....

by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Mon Jun 11th, 2012 at 03:25:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm back from a cold and rainy weekend at the Baltic coast. I didn't spend much time on the beach. :(

Here it must have been warmer: when I went through the garden I noticed that the first strawberries have developed a pale pink colouring. :)

by Katrin on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 11:29:14 AM EST
We've just had them flowering here, I'm sure the birds/squirrels/rats will enjoy them long before we get a chance to.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 11:31:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
At a rough guess we've picked about 8 kilos.

</smarmy grin>

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 02:25:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now it's a race between us and the slugs.

paul spencer
by paul spencer (spencerinthegorge AT yahoo DOT com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 02:55:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We're in a lucky no-slug year, which is why we're getting more strawberries than usual.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 03:10:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We have plenty if you're short

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 03:48:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
on the intertubez.

Rather eloquent, and suitably inspiring for the attendees. Worth a listen for anyone with 13 minutes available.

by Nomad on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 11:52:32 AM EST
May was absurdly hot.  June is now coming in as absurdly cool.

Al Gore is fat.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 11:55:55 AM EST
At least you are getting lots of rain. We are still a couple of inches in deficit despite >2" over the last two weekends. But the weather has been glorious. Highs in the high '80s except for one day with a 90+ reading. My tomatoes plants have set fruit of several dozen, we have been eating table cucumbers, onions and radishes from the garden and getting ready to make our first batch of pickles for the year.

Since I returned from Oklahoma I have set three interior posts, dug three more holes and this afternoon, when I get shade, will set and pour the other three. I also have gotten cages around my tomatoes. I was diagnosed with sacral problem last Friday and got a shot of cortisone just before my trip, which helped, and I had a CAT scan performed this Friday. Talked with older relatives in Bartlesville who have had steroid shots a few times a year for years. I am learning to work around and through the problem. The last thing I want is surgery, which is likely the first thing that the doctors will suggest.  

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 01:08:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
digging post holes and pouring concrete, am I reading that right? Stop that now. Back problems demand respect, and behaviour modification. Sorry to preach, you already know this.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 04:33:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At this point what hurts most is just standing up. It appears to be nerve root irritation, as I have pain down the right leg. But I also have to keep any pressure off the nerve bundle that goes down the leg, so I have to be careful how I sit. But what I have been doing I mostly do from a sitting position that does not pressure the nerve. It is amazing what one can accomplish from a sitting position with patience. So far the weather has been delightful, even with an unusually warm May, and I am very close to getting the structural support for the shade cloth up, which will carry me through the not so delightful part of the summer. I have already purchased the aluminet shade cloth which was, for me, expensive and I don't want to lose the benefit. But believe me I have developed great respect for the pain my back can give me.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 05:21:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I had something similar about 12 years ago where too much running damaged some nerves. I was advised to have acupuncture and it sorted it out.

A couple of years later I had a similar thing, but the original practitioner had moved on and the next guy just wasn't as good.

So the effectiveness depends on how good the practitioner is.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 11th, 2012 at 02:53:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The truly annoying thing about this problem is that, mostly to spare further damage to the lower back and the knees, I had lost >20lbs over the preceding six months. Then I get this. But I am still going to go for losing another 20 lbs at least. The chief consolation is that at least I now have the medical indications for treatment, even if Medicare won't pay for most of the treatments I would prefer. Medicare prefers surgery.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Jun 11th, 2012 at 08:49:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And in other news ...

Fire died down over night and the firefighters managed to halt the advance into the town of Ruidoso.  Some friends had the fire sweep into their area yesterday and overnight.  They may, or may not, still have a house.  Other friends have their house "on the line" today.  Rumors are 100 houses are gone, nobody really knows.

The wind is picking up again as it usually does during the day in June.  Expecting steady winds of 25 mph with gusts to 40.  Every now and then we can see a black plume rising from the mountains, meaning another house has gone.  

Our idiot governor will be "inspecting" the fire today.  Emergency workers will have to stop doing their jobs of responding to the emergency to play tour guide and water tankers and helicopters dumping water and fire retardant will have to be re-routed ... all so a politician can have get her face in the media.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 11:56:53 AM EST
Hope your place is okay

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 12:53:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks!  

We're fine down here in the desert.  Few trees and lots of sand. But the wind is picking up again on the mountain and they are again worried that the fire will turn back toward Ruidoso.  People move here to be 'in the trees', then complain when there is a fire...

In the meantime, this evening is the first concert of the season for the outdoor music series that I plan.  We discussed cancelling, but we've got too much advertising out to be able to spread the word.  Hope someone comes!!!  

by ElaineinNM on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 01:24:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A fast-moving blaze like the High Park fire, which has ripped through 14,000 acres northwest of Fort Collins, put the rush on homeowners and firefighters alike.

Rosemary Filano, 60, was about to go to bed Saturday night when a neighbor called her a few minutes before midnight with the news that the fire was coming and she had to evacuate. Filano looked out the kitchen window of her Poudre Park residence and saw a "wall of flames" and heard the fire's roar heading her way.

There was time for Filano, who works for American Legacy Firearms in Fort Collins, to grab three bags - her purse, a bag with handguns and ammunition and one with miscellaneous items. In her haste, she had to abandon the last bag on the porch - a porch she said she is sure burned within 15 minutes after her evacuation.

http://www.denverpost.com/breakingnews/ci_20827109/high-park-fire-hurries-homeowners-and-firefighter s?source=pkg

by asdf on Mon Jun 11th, 2012 at 12:49:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's June and crazy fire conditions - thus fires - across the Rocky Mountain west.  We shouldn't be this bad in early June.

Stay safe asdf.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Mon Jun 11th, 2012 at 12:59:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Gotta save the guns

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 11th, 2012 at 02:50:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
She works for a frigging gun store, the last thing she needs to save is her precious Glock. Purse? Check. Gun? Check. Brain? No time to worry about it...
by asdf on Mon Jun 11th, 2012 at 10:42:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually, I'm reasonably sure the repair crews appreciated the absence of unexploded munitions on the property ;-P

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Jun 11th, 2012 at 10:45:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I might agree if I had not tripped over an unfired 30-06 round at the picnic grounds here a couple of weeks ago. There is so much ammunition in the woods that a handful of boxes of pistol bullets is the least of their problems...
by asdf on Mon Jun 11th, 2012 at 10:57:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Atrios: They'd work hard for their money

With one hundred billion Euros, you could employ (or just give free money to) half of Spain's unemployed for a year at an annual salary of about 34,000 euros.


Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 12:01:06 PM EST
But you can't be giving money to the feckless... </ecofin>

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 12:44:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Don't you know your history? To feed the plebese would starve the patricians, and that of course would be bad. Remember:

According to Livy, writing five hundred years after the fact, Menenius was chosen by the patricians to persuade soldiers serving in the Roman army to re-enter the city and rejoin the community in 494 BC. The soldiers had withdrawn from Rome in the first of so-called "secessions" (secessio plebis), specifically to protest the oppressive debt laws, but more broadly to protest the severe inequity of power in the early Republic.

Livy says that Menenius told the soldiers a fable about the parts of the human body and how each has its own purpose in the greater function of the body. The rest of the body thought the stomach was getting a free ride so the body decided to stop nourishing the stomach. Soon, the other parts became fatigued and unable to function so they realized that the stomach did serve a purpose and they were nothing without it. In the story, the stomach represents the patrician class and the other body parts represent the plebs. Eventually, Livy concludes, the patricians conceded to some of the plebs' demands, such as creating the tribunes of the people and establishing legal protection for all citizens against arbitrary intervention from an elected magistrate, and the soldiers returned to the city.

Plus ca change.


And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 12:45:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Roman nobility has been in continuous need of extermination for over 2500 years.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 12:54:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This reminds me all to forcibly of the fable about how the parts of the body argued which one was to be the boss.

Hint: it wasn't the stomach.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 03:37:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In ancient Greek, "stomach" (γαστήρ = gaster) is declined as name of kinship, as father, mother, etc.
by PerCLupi on Mon Jun 11th, 2012 at 05:23:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
100 billion New Peseta is more likely. Sadly.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 12:51:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Normally when a neo-nazi party's spokesperson assaults their rivals on TV, responsible conservatives would join the effort to condemn them, not not recruit their membership. Perhaps the media should highlight this when they start referring to SYRIZA as "radical leftists."

Panayiotis Psomiadis, the former governor of Central Macedonia who is coordinating New Democracy's election campaign in northern Greece, has reportedly told journalists that he is "not bothered" by neo-Nazi Chrysi Avgi (Golden Dawn) and is in talks with some of its members to move to the conservative party.


And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 01:05:54 PM EST
The European cozy consensus (Social Democrats - Liberals - Christian Democrats) has lost the plot.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 01:09:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As a fan of Social Democracy, I'm more than a little peeved that parties which hold the name have discredited the concept in the eyes of so many young people.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 01:13:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Traditionally Social Democratic positions are now being advocated by "radical left" parties, given that the "Social Democrat" parties have deserted the social democratic space in their attempt to colonize the social-liberal space.

I am myself a little embarrased of having associated with the social liberals in the previous decade as a reaction to the authoritarian drift in most of The West™.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 01:21:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And looking like a record low turnout nationally.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 02:21:14 PM EST
What does that imply ?

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 02:30:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In constitutional terms, that the decision to have the life of a parliament coincide with the presidential mandate has led to the voiding of substance of the parliamentary elections, since everyone is well aware that it's the presidential that really matters.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 02:34:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Like Congress in the U.S.? Isn't part of the problem that life of the French parliament only coincides approximately with the presidential mandate? If the elections for both were on the same day, and you didn't know who would win, it might be different.
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Mon Jun 11th, 2012 at 03:30:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That would appear to be just about the national average.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 02:34:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Looking like 7% for EeLV at my booth. Better than expected. FDG looking like 8%. And the PS is walking away with the election, winning a habitually right wing booth. If this is indicative of a national trend, it points to a bigger than expected win for the left.
Downside would be an absolute majority for the PS...

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 02:49:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now if they can just act like the left.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 07:22:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Unlikely. The voter didn't give the message to the socialists "Behave, or the Great Green Monster and Melenchon will eat you."
by Katrin on Mon Jun 11th, 2012 at 02:59:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
French left closes in on parliamentary majority - FRENCH ELECTIONS 2012 - FRANCE 24
Exit polls showed left-wing parties and their allies with 47.1% of the votes in the first round of France's parliamentary elections on Sunday, while the conservative UMP garnered 35.4%, in a ballot marked by low voter turnout.
by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 03:19:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Gaaaaaaah.

Just watched the mayor of Lyon (PS)gloating. EELV had a "reserved" district, backed by the PS nationally,  he backed a dissident candidate to prove who's boss in Lyon... And won.

Nationally, I'd be surprised if we get more than 10 MPs, instead of the "promised" 15 to 20. Time for proportional representation, and to that end I pray that the PS will not gain an absolute majority next Sunday.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 04:42:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
eurogreen:
and to that end I pray that the PS will not gain an absolute majority next Sunday.

Possible, but looks unlikely, not without the "Radicaux de Gauche", according to estimates. Most likely, the majority will be PS+PRG+EELV.

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.

by Bernard on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 04:53:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Isn't the radical de gauche and also Movement républican et citoyen more or less a part of the PS now? So a majority with them would be a absolute majority of the PS in all but name?
by IM on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 05:00:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
right on the mRG and MRC. The aim of the PS is to do the same thing to EELV. The electoral system is their friend.  
Best result is if the PS needs both eelv and fdg. Some sort of proportional system would then be the price to pay. The Communist Party is losing their strongholds -- they now have no MPs in Rhone Alpes, for example -- they need PR as much as the greens.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 05:47:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ireland - Croatia 1:3 after 59 minutes.

No wonder the Irish are absent this evening.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 04:05:49 PM EST
Hah. Thought it was quiet out after one uproar an hour or so ago.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 10th, 2012 at 04:39:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Germany forgets who they named a street after:

Giessen: Hein Heckroth and Hermann Levi

From Le chef-d'oeuvre inconnu to Guernica...

by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Mon Jun 11th, 2012 at 03:43:24 AM EST
Second round is a straight PS/UMP affair, as expected. The results are a microcosm of the electoral cycle, not in absolute figures, but in terms of movements since 2007.


Party          2007      2012
UMP :        40.66%   26,92%
FN :          4.25%   11.08%
PS :         27.87%   40.01%
PC/FDG:        2.4%    7.06%
NPA :          2.4%    0.39%
Verts/EELV:    3.4%    6.14%
Modem:        14.74%   2.08%
Parti Pirate : ---     0.65%
Anti-money :   ---     0.21%
Royalist :     ---     0.10%

Independent Ecologists: 1 vote


(she didn't provide any voting papers, presumably her vote was a write-in, probably by herself... reminds me of the joke where God says "You gotta help me here... if you want to win the lottery, buy a ticket")


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Jun 11th, 2012 at 03:53:19 AM EST


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