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A cheering thought for the day.

by Colman Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 06:41:31 AM EST

Dani Rodrik writing for Social Europe Journal:

Consider the following scenario. After a victory by the left-wing Syriza party, Greece’s new government announces that it wants to renegotiate the terms of its agreement with the International Monetary Fund and the European Union. German Chancellor Angela Merkel sticks to her guns and says that Greece must abide by the existing conditions.

[…]

Our scenario continues in China, where the leadership faces a crisis of its own. The economy’s slowdown has already exacerbated social conflict, and recent developments in Europe have added fuel to the fire. With European export orders canceled en masse, Chinese factories are faced with the prospect of massive layoffs. Demonstrations begin in major cities, calling for an end to corruption among party officials.

[…]

As in the Great Depression, the political consequences are more serious and hold longer-term significance. The eurozone’s collapse (and, for all practical purposes, that of the EU itself) forces a major realignment of European politics. France and Germany compete openly as alternative centers of influence vis-à-vis the smaller European states. Centrist parties pay the price for their support of the European integration project, and are repudiated in the polls by parties of the extreme right or extreme left. Nativist governments begin to kick out immigrants.
Ridiculous idea, isn't it?


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This isn't even worst case.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 06:47:22 AM EST
by cagatacos on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 08:11:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Superseded long ago by this:

by Marie2 on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 01:15:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, Oppenheimer ended that possibility for the time being in Europe.
by oliver on Fri Jun 15th, 2012 at 07:33:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Most of Europe doesn't have nukes, though there are a lot of countries who could produce them at will.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jun 15th, 2012 at 07:44:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
One must certainly hope so.

However, EPPES politicians have consistently underwhelmed even my most pessimistic forecasts, Verts/EFA is, on economy, an appendage to ALDE, and most of ALDE proper is flat out insane.

And that's not even getting into the ugly parties.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Jun 15th, 2012 at 02:28:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Rodrik's last paragraph:
Many years later, Merkel, who has withdrawn from politics and become a recluse, is asked whether she thinks that she should have done anything differently during the euro crisis.  Unfortunately, her answer comes too late to change the course of history.
I would propose an alternative ending:
Unfortunately, her answer is "no".


If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 06:47:33 AM EST
Exactly.

As a side note, Rodrik and others could help by at least proposing an alternative frame on Germany's recent history - one that explains how they exported inflation and benefited from the euro.

As it stands, too many Germans believe (much like in the UK) that they are morally superior economically successful beings who could easily prosper without the rest of Europe.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 06:55:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
These kinds of stories are meant as a warning to Germany's policymakers, but they seem to be falling on deaf ears.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 06:58:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Right - but my sense is that it's not enough to present stories about consequences - there needs to be much more promotion of an alternative narrative about German success, in order to give policymakers a scaffold to consider a change of policy.

Right now, they believe policy has worked and worked in a particular way that justifies continuing without change...

So far no prominent figures have taken on the myth of how Germany got to the current situation...

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 07:05:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
At least, Dani Rodrik has published The Globalization Paradox. Why Global Markets, States and Democracy Can't Coexist. Worthy of being read.
by PerCLupi on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 08:58:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes indeed, Prof Rodrik has done lots of good work.

I didn't mean my comment as a personal criticism, just an observation that we need a mainstream commentator to ask questions about the "New German Miracle" - because unless someone starts asking about the export of inflation from Germany to the periphery, we're never going to even make a tiny hole in the self-assured ignorance that is guiding German policy at the moment.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 09:46:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Centrist parties pay the price for their support of the European integration project, and are repudiated in the polls by parties of the extreme right or extreme left. Nativist governments begin to kick out immigrants.

Ridiculous idea, isn't it?

Yes.

First: There are basically no extreme left parties in Europe.

Second: Anybody who thinks the cozy centrists are supporting the European integration project is kidding himself.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 08:10:21 AM EST
Me thinks you might not be totally correct.

First, in times of chaos a minor movement can easily capture power. Yep, it is less likely that it is the far-left, but again, in times of chaos all bets are off. But, some countries still have big, organized far-left movements. Currently around 18% of the vote in Portugal is polled to far-left (closet-trotskysts and openly-communists), both of each have operational, effective organizations (trots with intellectuals/bobos and commies with labour). With such level of support, "storming the Winter palace" is possible.

About centrists and European integration: they believe that they are helping European integration. When this unravels (soon, or so it seems) the goal of "European integration" will pay the price. A good development in my view: it is now clear that European integration would always be power in the hands of big countries + financial elites.

by cagatacos on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 08:23:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
First, in times of chaos a minor movement can easily capture power. Yep, it is less likely that it is the far-left, but again, in times of chaos all bets are off. But, some countries still have big, organized far-left movements. Currently around 18% of the vote in Portugal is polled to far-left (closet-trotskysts and openly-communists), both of each have operational, effective organizations (trots with intellectuals/bobos and commies with labour). With such level of support, "storming the Winter palace" is possible.
And we've seen how useful the Greek Communist Party KKE has been. In fact, Syriza started out as a splinter party of the KKE, going in the Social Democrat direction.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 08:25:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I thought that SYRIZA splint from the PASOK.

res humà m'és aliè
by Antoni Jaume on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 10:04:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Paul Mason has a good history of SYRIZA, quite, if not completely accurate.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 10:45:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks, I had found in between a page of the Socialist Worker ( http://socialistworker.org/2012/06/11/the-making-of-syriza ), that had already cleared my misunderstanding, probably from a badly read, or redacted, press article. This story remind me a lot of IU.

res humà m'és aliè
by Antoni Jaume on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 11:20:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

A good development in my view: it is now clear that European integration would always be power in the hands of big countries + financial elites.

Nothing like a  few good wars to put power back in the hands of the little people, eh?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 08:58:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I was making TWO SEPARATE POINTS:

  1. I think chaos is coming and that might make the outcome unpredictable. Does anyone disagree with that?

  2. Integration is bad. I suppose most would disagree here.

They are separate arguments. Either I explained myself wrongly or mashing the two together is not really correct.

I am not rooting for war, nor I think any good will come out of it. But war is clearly coming because of people clinging to integrationist wet dreams.

by cagatacos on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 09:37:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I will disagree with it. I think we, globally, are a long way from the level of unrest that might cause significant political change. "Trouble in the Middle East" has been the daily headline of the London Times for at least the last 150 years. The rich have been arranging things so that they retain their position since forever. Most people want only to watch football.

I don't see anything that comes remotely close to suggesting any sort of revolution. For example, approximately half of the voting public supports the exact policies that are being enacted. Maybe they're misguided, maybe the voting is rigged, maybe the voting public is stupid, but as things are right now, you can't even get progressive representatives elected in most places...

by asdf on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 10:12:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Or a Europe-wide alternative.  One of the real problems with the EU is that much of business is already organized on a pan-european basis.  Labor is not. I guarantee you that if you run a poll, you'll find that a number of people in Germany and the other states of the center are horrified by what is going on in Greece.

Imagine a party like Syriza organized at the European level to compete in EP elections.  A Party for a Social Europe, that challenges the financial elites, and demands that a social bill of rights be written into an EU Constitution that will be brought for referendum before the continent's people.  

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 10:08:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I keep saying, the good news is that we've now got one EU wide party.

The bad news is that it's the EPP.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 10:16:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Cheesy as it sounds, imagine what the impact of a statement of solidarity with Greece from Europeans in other countries on the lines of you guys anti-Blair petition could do. Creating domestic consequences for Merkel et al could change the game in a way that the Greeks on their own never could.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 10:25:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Social Europe Now! Where do I sign up?
by PerCLupi on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 10:28:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually Synaspismos, the main component of SYRIZA, is part of exactly such a pan-european party: the Party of the European Left, of which Tsipras is VP (Pierre Laurent of the PCF is the President). In Germany of course the sister party is Die Linke.

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 10:50:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, in theory.

In practice the EPP seem to be the only ones even faintly acting like a party.

Specifically, the US Republicans.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 10:56:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If you knew the claws that various US groups (Atlantic Bridge was the tip of the iceberg) have on members of the European Parliament you'd see that there's no surprise they behave this way.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 11:53:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think Colman is referring to the national parties.

The EPP has come to its own over a period where it held (as it still does: Hollande is an outlier) the hegemony in the European Council. This has been a disaster.

But I note the Danish government also recently changed colour to the Social Democrats and they had no problem pushing a Schengen policy reform that the European Parliament universally (including the EPP) found damaging to the European project.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 12:18:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
True enough.  

I just know the stories of the individual MEPs who've shown up at various right wing US events to bash the EU as being too far to the left.  And the corporate donors that paid for all this.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 12:28:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is an honest question, "What exactly has Die Linke done as a solidarity measure with Greece?"

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 11:55:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well they were the only ones in parliament to vote against the so called aid to Greece on terms of austerity, they organized quite a few solidarity rallies for Greece and they have published nice myth-busting documents such as this...

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 12:50:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Gysi's and Wagenknecht's Bundestag-speeches on Greece are perfect: explaining concisely what the real reasons of the trouble are and what ought to be done.
by Katrin on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 01:18:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And tomorrow in Thessaloniki at SYRIZA's final campaign gathering the invited co-speaker is a Die Linke MP



The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake

by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 03:46:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sadly the Left's death spiral has made their political arguments even more inaudible than they have been before.

Von überall könnte das Volk, Urbrut alles Undemokratischen, Zelle des Terrors, über die gewählten Hüter von Wachstum und Wohlstand® kommen. - flatter
by generic on Fri Jun 15th, 2012 at 09:13:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nothing like a few good wars to put power back in the hands of the little people, eh?

I'm having a memory deficit there. When was power in the hands of the little people? The closest thing I recall was the GI Bill and the Gilded Age that lasted about twenty years after WWII. Then the Chicago Boys stepped in with their ideology and Thatcher was their first prophet.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 11:24:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Precisely the book by Dani Rodrik poses the trilemma:
 1. Globalization + sovereignty: democracy dies.
 2. Globalization + Democracy: impracticable, unthinkable. Furthermore, not sovereignty. Chimera of universal democratic government.
 3. Sovereignty (he says that EU would be possible) + democracy: that is the only possible option; with a smart globalization, not maximum.

 And China (and others) beeing forced to follow rules of the game..

by PerCLupi on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 09:21:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The EU is currently implementing option 1 while claiming to be pursuing option 3.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 09:36:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Social Europe Now! Where do I sign up?
by PerCLupi on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 10:31:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Only a strong citizenry can compel politicians "sovereign." If you want 3. (or something), nobody will give us: we have to get it.
by PerCLupi on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 10:31:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It depends on how you define "democracy."
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 11:25:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course. It was mentioned the other day. Oligocratic democracy not. We are at a critical time, I think, and we must take into account the experience in many aspects. We must ensure that certain things are not repeated again. But let us use the word to understand each other.
by PerCLupi on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 03:47:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Upstate NY on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 09:46:34 AM EST
Leave out the guns, bullets, bombs ... until you end up like Syria. Subjugate the masses with computers, bankers, politicians, MSM ... much more civilized. If they keep this up, the ultimate in warfare ... the enemy (that's us) commit suicide.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wp4O7v5320
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Thu Jun 14th, 2012 at 04:38:00 PM EST


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