Welcome to the new version of European Tribune. It's just a new layout, so everything should work as before - please report bugs here.

Sunday Open Thread

by In Wales Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 01:51:12 PM EST

Because it's Sunday.


Display:
Greetings to you all.

Ad astra per aspera
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 01:51:35 PM EST
And greetings back atcha

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 02:17:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
looks like an absolute majority for the socialists, without the greens or the front de gauche.
Left 340ish Right 230ish, with 2 seats for the Front National

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 02:26:19 PM EST
So, is that good or not so good ?

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 02:31:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My answer will no doubt be different from Jérome's...
which is all the answer you need, surely.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 02:43:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 02:47:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Please use Jérôme or Jerome for me.

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 02:51:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry, haven't found the circonflrx yet. It appears there isn't one. (Webos tablet.)

No slight intended.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 02:54:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I know it's not on purpose in that case, but if you're going to do the effort of putting accents, either do it right or don't bother.

But at least you have an excuse... you'd be amazed at the number of people who misspell my first name in France...

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 02:56:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree. But the accent is the soul of words (I read this in a French text).
by PerCLupi on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 03:16:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ô should work.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 03:04:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No but seriously, it's an excellent result for EELV, looking at 20 seats when I was predicting 12 or so.

Sucky result for FDG, ten or so seats, a historic low I would think. Mostly due to the rapid disindustrialisation of the Sarkozy era, and the resulting end of sociologisal concentration of PCF voters. Even at constant percentage, they get less seats

NEED PROPORTIONAL REPRESENTATION, and an absolute majority for the PS makes that highly unlikely.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 02:48:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
seeing that there are reports on Twitter that Marie le Pen has lost her seat

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 02:49:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
has lost by 120 votes at first count and has asked for a recount, which is being done tonight.

Her niece Marion Marechal-Le Pen won, as did Gilbert Collard for the FN.

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 02:53:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The seat wasn't her to start with: the incumbent was PS member Albert Facon. But yes, looks like she should have run in the Vaucluse instead. And yes, it's close so Le Pen has asked for a recount.

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
by Bernard on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 03:45:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
did not do so badly in the end, by focusing on the parliamentary elections and getting into government...

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 02:54:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Lots of very close results, therefore most likely one-term MPs. That's why it was hard to call.

And they are there because the PS allows them to be there. A very uncomfortable position, not a powerful one.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 02:58:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I helped with the counting in my polling station (we're in the 10th district of the Yvelines département):
  • Low turnout: about 55%
  • Incumbent Green MP A.Poursinoff (supported by the PS) got about 54%.
  • Challenger JM.Poisson (UMP) about 46%.


Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
by Bernard on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 03:51:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
... and overall results for the district: JM.Poisson is elected with 53.65% vs.  46.35% for A.Poursinoff; one less seat for the Greens...

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
by Bernard on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 04:42:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That the PS has no need of either EELV or the Front de Gauche is not good, and don't let anyone tell you otherwise.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 04:11:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ségolène Royal loses to a dissident (the one of the infamous Trielweiler twit), as does Jack Lang. Not too many people will cry about them - although Royal's loss may be a political headache for the PS.

Apparently Claude Guéant loses too, which would be excellent news.

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 03:01:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Jerome a Paris:
Apparently Claude Guéant loses too, which would be excellent news.

Also Nadine Morano and Michèle Alliot-Marie (of Ben-Ali vacations fame).

Couldn't happen to nicer people...

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.

by Bernard on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 03:53:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Moscovici, minister of economy and finance, says "no austerity"

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 03:18:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Portugal and Germany qualify. Germany are looking pretty ominous, still more or less definitely a Spain Germany final, but I can't guess who'd win

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 04:57:50 PM EST
by das monde on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 02:23:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bet there was a big fight on the plane home.

I think the manager will be getting sacked, to have all that talent and play so badly is just like England surely unforgiveable

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 02:48:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Dutch under-21s had won two European championships 5-6 years ago, but only Huntelaar, Vlaar and substitute keepers were selected for this championship. Van Marwijk stuck with the old guard (or big names) - even if slower, lazier, out of form. Common sense acuity is missing again.
by das monde on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 03:33:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
6.4 magnitude earthquake off Japanese coast...

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usb000ahy0#shakemap

by asdf on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 05:25:50 PM EST
fan-freaking-tastic.

Have they switched their nukes back on yet ?

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 05:40:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They recently switched two back on.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!
by A swedish kind of death on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 06:25:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Permission to restart
in Ohi NPS was just given,
but the reactors are not running yet apparently.
by das monde on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 02:38:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That is what I get for lazy reading of the news (ie believing what they say without checking their sources).

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!
by A swedish kind of death on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 04:58:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There is nothing odd, or terribly frightening, about earthshakes for the coast of Japan in the range of 6 - 7 at the Richter scale. Furthermore, the recent quake was the result of normal faulting, thus blocks slipping downwards. That type of faulting (rarely) causes tsunami's.

As a reminder, the Fukushima disaster occurred because the nuclear reactors weren't build for withstanding a quake (and subsequent tsuanmis) larger than 7.9 at the Richter scale.

by Nomad on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 10:01:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The state of the fuel pool in the No 4 Fukushima reactor building is so bad, that a conventional earthquake earthquake may crack the water out of it. If that happens in these months while there are no means to extract fuel from the pool, Tokyo ought to be evacuated.
by das monde on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 10:45:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
a lot of energy is dissipated by the time it gets to shore.
by wu ming on Tue Jun 19th, 2012 at 02:00:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In addition to the big fire in New Mexico and Colorado, several smaller ones have popped up. This afternoon we have this one.

LAKE GEORGE - A small fire exploded across more than 100 acres in less than a hour and continued to grow Sunday afternoon near 11 mile reservoir.

Hundreds of campers, including scores of Boy Scouts, have been evacuated from the area around the blaze, which is burning in Eleven Mile Canyon, about three miles south of the town of Lake George. Scores of firefighters have rushed in, with trucks, helicopters and air tankers. Facing stiff winds, firefighters were trying to get ahead of the blaze, named the Springer Fire, but were having to let some areas burn. "If this fire is cranking, I'm not sending firefighters in there," expalined Forest Service spokesman Gregg Goodwin.

The fire was being pushed north and east by stiff winds that exceeded 20 mph at times Sunday. Goodwin said high temperatures and low humidity in the high country were hampering efforts to quell the blaze, which started sometime after noon.

A team including more than 40 firefighters, one single engine air tanker, three fire engines and two helicopters have responded, officials said. One helicopter is dropping buckets of water and firefighters are rappelling from the second, he said.

The fire danger is high today because of high temperatures and 20 mph winds. The National Weather Service has issued a "Red Flag" warning for most of the high country.

http://www.gazette.com/articles/fire-140405-fighters-lighting.html

by asdf on Sun Jun 17th, 2012 at 06:59:37 PM EST

French electoral law mandates that parties must present an equal number of male and female candidates. If not, they are fined through reduction of their public funding. The UMP loses a high proportion of its funding through fines; most other parties respect parity in numbers of candidates, but not in results : i.e. women are typically cannon fodder in unwinnable districts.

Only two parties respect partity in terms of results.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 05:45:21 AM EST
The trend over time looks like the policy is working. Patronage networks don't change overnight, and a system that has deliberately kept out a demographic from positions of confidence will not have a cadre of that demographic waiting in the wings. It will have to build it from the ground up.

Assuming a binomial distribution, you cannot reject a null hypothesis of 50-50 chance for Front de Gauche, PRG, EELV, Modem or Front National at the 5 % confidence level. If you pool all the parties that fail to reject individually the resultant sums reject the null, but they do not reject a 47-53 split (though the latter is veering into fishing expedition territory).

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 06:12:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The exact 9/9 split for EELV is fortuitous (many of them scored under 52%, half a dozen unsuccessful candidates are over 48%), but the result owes nothing to chance... Within the party, parity is the only issue that overrides both democracy and factional balance.

(It's cherry season eh Jake? Why don't you add in the Alliance Centriste and the Parti Radical Valoisien, and tell me how you get on?)

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 07:00:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Because they rejected individually, and I was checking whether the parties that failed to reject individually would reject if combined. That's a standard robustness check when you have marginal rejections and/or very small samples.

All the parties that I didn't mention in the first half of the paragraph reject 50 % probability at the 5 % level. In most of the cases it isn't even close (p < 0.001).

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 07:10:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Who knew?

This is the first time there have been districts for French citizens living abroad.
Of 11 districts, only three elected right wingers : Switzerland, southern/eastern Africa, and Asia.

EELV won Latin America.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 06:07:56 AM EST
Yes, saw that, indeed a rather unexpected result...

Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 06:18:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How times have changed. In my youth, French expats were all boulangers chiraquiens, or equivalent.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 07:02:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Southern Europe was quite close. Of the 109.389 registered voters,  63.500 are in Israel. In the presidential elections, 81% of them voted for Sarkozy.
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 06:19:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, but less than 13000 voted : probably not the same ones as for the presidential election.

And the socialist candidate is called Daphna Poznanski-Benhamou. Ashkenaz and sepharade : unbeatable.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 07:09:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You're right. But the identity of the candidate may not have been relevant in Israel, since seems to have been mostly the Italians who voted
Inutile de se voiler la face. Des milliers d'euros ont été dépensés en pure perte par les candidats en Israël. En fin de parcours le nombre de votants Français dans l'Etat Hébreu est infime. La raison est simple : un désintérêt réel pour cette élection législative qui a été finalement remportéee par une candidate PS (qui a sillonné le pays depuis plus de 20 ans). C'est l'Italie qui lui a donné cette victoire.
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 08:01:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In my local election, two seats have interesting candidates.

For county commissioner, both candidates are females, the incumbent is involved in a scandal where they pushed through a term limit bill with misleading verbiage that increased the term limits, while the other is claiming to be just like the first, except more conservative on every issue.

For university board of regents, both candidates are males,  one is an only half-way retarded physician, while the other has claimed to have a master's degree (thus qualifying him to run the state's biggest and most prestigious PhD-granting university???), but it turns out he doesn't--and when confronted about it said that he didn't want to waste all that time with "academic BS that nobody cares about." Even the Republican party bigwigs are having a hard time swallowing that...

So at least in my neighborhood, the idiocy is not related to gender, we are equal-opportunity dopes.

by asdf on Mon Jun 18th, 2012 at 04:13:35 PM EST


Display:
Go to: [ European Tribune Homepage : Top of page : Top of comments ]

Top Diaries

Pentecost steam

by DoDo - May 23
40 comments

A Nomad's Life (A Farewell)

by Nomad - May 10
14 comments

Simple Solar Principles

by gmoke - May 17
2 comments

Rail News Blogging #24

by DoDo - May 12
11 comments

Ferguson hates on Keynes

by Migeru - May 6
100 comments