Top Diaries

Too late to change, though i just read that Rosicky, their master playmaker, still isn't fit, and they need him.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 12:10:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Upset Coming (4.00 / 2)

Didn't get to see the match but for the last 10 mins of the 1st half, and the last 20 of the 2nd, so i can't really say why i was off by so much.

What i've heard is that the new goal post movement control referees were successful in moving the posts to block Ronaldo's shots, so he had to use his head.

But like i said, i didn't see enough to comment.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 06:12:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You weren't all that off. The Czech Republic without Rosický played defensive football, with Čech in top form if the field players failed, that was one reason for the low goal count. (Perhaps it mattered that in one of the last great saves before the goal, he crushed one of his own defenders, Kadlec.) Ronaldo wasted five great chances due to bad aim before scoring (shooting wide, into Čech, and at the goal post), that was the other reason. Portugal was really all about Ronaldo yesterday. (And he didn't change his hairdo in half-time.)

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 03:50:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes, i did see Čech's last minute fist, crushing Kadlec. I don't understand a team facing elimination not moving to attack. (Croatia, for example.) At least after 60 minutes, still 0-0.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 04:21:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

They tried counters in the first half of the second half.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 04:57:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Upset Coming (4.00 / 2)

How was his haircut? A picture during the break of Por-Ned:

by das monde on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 10:25:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I was already expecting it, but this time he didn't change from the oiled-down to the standing-up hairdo (see your photo) in half-time.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 03:51:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Euro 2012 knockout stage predictions (none / 1)

I had a PIGS semifinal in the first thread, I'll stick with it (switching out Ireland, alas, for Italy).

Spain takes it in the final versus Greece.

I would be ashamed to admit that I had risen from the ranks. When I rise it will be with the ranks, and not from them Eugene Debs

by redstar on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 02:54:52 PM EST

Heh (none / 1)

Well since there is still no goal in tonight's match I can still chip in without scruples :)

Q1: Czech Republic - Portugal
Q2: Germany (Boo! Hiss!) - Greece
Q3: Spain - France
Q4: England - Italy

S1: Portugal - Germany
S2: Spain - Italy

Final: Spain - Germany

Draw. Halfway the game both teams share a profound and universal connection, the players halt their game, embrace and publicly declare brotherhood and equality for all. The stadium is moved to tears and blankets the field with flowers and cuddles. The UEFA decides to declare both countries the winner. Blatter cries publicly on prime time television.

But if you insist...

Final: Spain - Germany

by Nomad on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 04:20:20 PM EST

Double heh (4.00 / 2)

Seconds posted before the goal.

Phew.

by Nomad on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 04:21:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Heh (none / 1)

That won't work: Either Germany or Greece will meet either Italy or England. And Portugal will play either Spain or France.

by IM on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 03:23:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Heh (none / 0)

good spot !!

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 03:36:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Triple heh (none / 0)

See, that's how vastly interested I am...

Again!

Q1: Czech Republic - Portugal
Q2: Germany (Boo! Hiss!) - Greece
Q3: Spain - France
Q4: England -Italy

S1: Portugal - Spain
S2: Germany - Italy

Final: Spain - Germany

Draw. Halfway the game... etc.

(Spain wins)

by Nomad on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 01:56:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Euro 2012 knockout stage predictions (none / 0)

Q2: Germany
Q3: Spain
Q4: Italy

S1: Spain

S2: Germany

F: Spain

Today we will see a boring and very defensive game, until Germany will score in the 60 or 70 minute and win the game 1:0.

by IM on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 10:11:32 AM EST

Re: Euro 2012 knockout stage predictions (none / 1)

Q2: Germany
Q3: Spain
Q4: England

S1: Spain

S2: Germany

F: Germany

Have not been able to read up on strategic goals the past days, but a few days ago Jogi Löw had said 'Schland must shoot some quick goals as in the match against Czech Rep. he seemed to have forgotten that the 2 goals scored in the first 6 minutes were against a Greek defense without Socratis, Werder's stunningly good best player this year.

Still, 'Schland has what Spain doesn't. Can make ball-control ticky-tack nearly as good, but also can force attack on the box. I've heard but not confirmed, that for this reason, Klose is starting. He's stronger on such an attack, plus it saves Gomez for late or extra time.

'Schland also has the tops subs, if nothing cracks the King Otto defense.

So, not boring, mehopes. 3-1 'Schland. oder 3-0?

(There is also an element of luck in such a match for which i can't predict. Advantage Neuer.)

I'm wearing my 2006 World Cup trikot, which says on the back (direct name translation) Geiler Kesselflicker. #1. I have almost nearly partly eliminated political thoughts from this match. (it is just football.)

Los 'Schland! (it's already pretty crazy here at Times Square Bremen.)

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 12:19:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Euro 2012 knockout stage predictions (none / 0)

That said, as a football expert i usually use the weather as the main predictor of results.

Today in never tropical Bremen we have had intense periods of high summer sun, interspersed with very dark clouds and even a squall.

So...

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 12:24:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Euro 2012 knockout stage predictions (none / 0)

Of course, i sometimes use the orgasm quality quotient as a predictor.

Some say abstinence before a match hightens testosterone levels, leading to top performance. Other veterans say unlimited sex, usually with a partner or three, leads to top performance.

Unfortunately, i have limited access to that data set, so am no help. Personally, i had no sex during work today, but that shouldn't affect the match's outcome in any manner.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 12:37:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Euro 2012 knockout stage predictions (none / 0)

and we just had another squall, which made it more traditional for the Public Viewing Bremers.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 01:11:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Euro 2012 knockout stage predictions (none / 0)

Oh, are we predicting scores ?

I can't see Germany scoring less than 3, although Greece might get one. Call it 4-1 for luck, but won't be surprised if Germany go Ke-ray-zee and get 6.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 12:51:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Euro 2012 knockout stage predictions (none / 0)

1:0, not unlike the Germany:Portugal game.

by IM on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 12:53:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Euro 2012 knockout stage predictions (none / 1)

Nope, Reuss auch im Startelf. 3-1 oder 3-0. And remember, i'm the expert who picked Tschechien 3-2.

Extra time or not, that's another question.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 01:09:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Euro 2012 knockout stage predictions (none / 0)

Reus seems too over-eager and wasted many chances.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 03:48:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Euro 2012 knockout stage predictions (none / 0)

Well in the end He came through.

My prediction was utterly wrong. But a nice game until the 2:1, then too one-sided.

by IM on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 04:58:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Euro 2012 knockout stage predictions (none / 0)

Showtime!

by IM on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 02:43:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Euro 2012 knockout stage predictions (none / 1)

That was fun.

Are you ready England? (or Italy?)

PS. Really liked that Khedira got a goal, and what a shot.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Sat Jun 23rd, 2012 at 04:38:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Euro 2012 knockout stage predictions (none / 0)

Damn, I'd have got it right if the ref hadn't given that stupid charity penalty

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 04:49:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Euro 2012 knockout stage predictions (none / 0)

IMHO it was borderline, Boateng should have been faster in hiding his arms when jumping for the block.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 04:53:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Euro 2012 knockout stage predictions (none / 0)

He had his back to the ball, as he spung his arm was just in the wrong place at the wrong time. No way that was deliberate

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 04:55:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Euro 2012 knockout stage predictions (none / 1)

He jumped to block the ball, when you have to hide your hands. IMO he was in the process of doing just that with his right, but with rather bad timing.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 05:03:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Euro 2012 knockout stage predictions (none / 1)

In the penalty area, I thought it doesn't have to be deliberate. Any hand ball away from your body is a penalty.

by Upstate NY on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 06:33:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Euro 2012 knockout stage predictions (none / 0)

No, a foul has to include a degree of pre-meditation. We have a phrase ball-to-hand, not hand-to-ball to cover it.

I think Boateng was innocent cos he was turning and his arm swung out slightly due to his momentum

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Jun 23rd, 2012 at 03:27:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Euro 2012 knockout stage predictions (none / 0)

No Helen. Besides intent many penalties are the cause of negligence or bad luck. Sometimes you cannot be given the advantage of a "wider" body area even if you are wirh your eyes closed and not knowing where the ball is.

by Euroliberal on Sat Jun 23rd, 2012 at 04:28:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Euro 2012 knockout stage predictions (4.00 / 2)

FIFA is definite in talking about "deliberate" handling of the ball, though not defining "deliberate" itself.

Handling the ball involves a deliberate act of a player making contact with the ball with his hand or arm. The referee shall take the following into consideration:

The movement of the hand towards the ball (not the ball towards the hand)

The distance between the opponent and the ball (unexpected ball)

Position of the hand does not necessarily mean that there is an infringement

Touching the ball with an object held in the hand (clothing, shinguard etc.) counts as an infringement

Hitting the ball with a thrown object (a boot, shinguard etc.) counts as an infringement

The question is, when is the ball touching the hand during a deliberate jump to block a shot a "deliberate act of a player making contact with the ball with his hand or arm". Helen thinks Boateng's arm swung with momentum and thus it wasn't deliberate; I think it swung in a late attempt to hide the arm in front of the body, meaning the player was aware that his hand could be in the line of the shot and thus borderline.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sat Jun 23rd, 2012 at 05:31:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Euro 2012 knockout stage predictions (none / 1)

Well if we're going to bring in goal line technology, we're going to need something new to moan about...

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Sat Jun 23rd, 2012 at 01:40:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Euro 2012 knockout stage predictions (none / 1)

Referees and umpires are one of the most unenjoyable things about sports. I've always felt this way. Bring on the technology.

by Upstate NY on Sat Jun 23rd, 2012 at 04:44:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Euro 2012 knockout stage predictions (none / 0)

The more productively efficient team will win the game today between Germany and Greece.

by Upstate NY on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 10:43:12 AM EST

French Strategy (none / 0)

Took me a while, but i finally figured out the French team's strategy. Make the match so boring that even the opponent falls asleep, then try to make the counters work.

No question the strategy would have worked, but for Jordi Alba's brilliant cross aimed right at Xabi Alonso's head. I did wake up several times, expecting to see Nasri and Ribery making a match out of it, then discovered Nasri was still on the bench.

The most exciting part of the match was when Xabi Alonso told Lloris he was kicking upper right from the spot, but went upper left instead.

This match must have been doubly exciting for all the fans who got to fly into Donezk.

The match wazs much closzer than it seemed, as the French lost to Spain on shots from outside the penalty area only 3-4.

Malouda looked as if he thought the match wasn't until Sunday, equalling the reverse brilliance of Pigclimber the night before.

Nasri did get to play, but the match had already been over for days.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Sun Jun 24th, 2012 at 04:45:44 AM EST

The french largely conceded the game before they walked on the pitch, they never played with any conviction they could score, let alone win. And if they're beaten in their heads, they're already beat.

that said, spain did nothing to convince me they can live with the Germans and might not even beat Portugal unless they buck their ideas up, Ronaldo can't keep hitting the post.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jun 24th, 2012 at 05:49:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: French Strategy (none / 1)

NO. the advance of computational dynamics correctly places the impact point of Ronaldo's shots with an accuracy above 89.7%, and goal post movement response time, an offshoot of Formula 1 DRS wing movement technology, means most of his shots will be blocked by the moveable posts.

PS. Apologies to Katrin for making a name joke in the previous comment, though she probably doesn't read Fussball threads. I hope i'm allowed an exception when he plays so poorly.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Sun Jun 24th, 2012 at 06:19:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

they never played with any conviction they could score

Hm, I had the impression that France dominated for most of the second half. But they indeed played defensively (midfield gaps formed when starting an attack), and there was very little combination game on offense (no suitable partner in sight for Ribéry), and Nasri was a no-show when subbed in. IMO this was just the culmination of the problems seen in the earlier matches; it could be the lack of team training, or the lack of a real playmaker like Zizou, or both.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun Jun 24th, 2012 at 07:14:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Both, imo. Plus the absence of what France used to have, a capable central defence.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Jun 24th, 2012 at 11:05:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The most dispiriting thing for me was the comments of the players and the coach after the match : almost pleased with themselves, relieved that it was over and that they had avoided humiliation. Their strategy of shutting down Spain had worked, you see. Oh, except for the minor detail of that goal.

The team could be very good in a couple of years, but I'm afraid Laurent Blanc will have to go.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Sun Jun 24th, 2012 at 03:55:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

...and it appears likely today that Blanc's contract will not be renewed (he may be coaching Spurs instead) and that fellow 1998 hero Didier Deschamps, currently coaching Marseille, will replace him. Good move, if it works out.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 07:31:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

England Italy (none / 0)

If i counted correctly, the predictions here are

England (5) Italy (9)

I'm one of the five, and think this one can go to extra time and perhaps penalties.

2-2? if penalties, why did i pick Joe Hart? Enjoy.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Sun Jun 24th, 2012 at 01:50:29 PM EST

forgot to write why i believe it will go to extra time.

Because today's Giants ballgame with Matt (Perfect Game) Cain on the mound, and it's a day game in don't-call-it-Frisco, begins about 20 minutes into the second half Bremen time.

So of course it will go into extra time, and i'll miss the first 4 innings minimum.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Sun Jun 24th, 2012 at 01:55:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: England Italy (4.00 / 2)

I'm another of the five, but at half time, England looks lost and Italy ever more confident when in front of the goal...

As for penalties, its not just Hart. Chelsea can do penalties but England can't. (And no it's not about luck.)

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun Jun 24th, 2012 at 03:39:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: England Italy (4.00 / 2)

What did I say?...

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Sun Jun 24th, 2012 at 05:46:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I think Hart was too confident in his homework; all the italians had to do was remember where they normally hit the ball and then do something different. He dived the wrong way 4 times.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 25th, 2012 at 03:00:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Didn't he dive the right way, but too slow, during the first shot?

I read one article that gives all the credit for the Italian win to Pirlo: the author claimed that Pirlo's panenka shook the confidence of Young and Cole. Maybe, maybe not.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Mon Jun 25th, 2012 at 05:08:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: England Italy (4.00 / 3)

It is possible that after Montolivo's missed shot, Pirlo was looking for a psychological tick. Ballzy.

An illustrative comparison of game activity:

arrows are passes (blue good, red not);
circle - ball defended;
cross - tackle (orange good, purple not);
green diamond - interception

And by the way (NGFW): Have you seen this?

by das monde on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 01:14:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You could have put the whole england team against Pirlo and it would have looked bad. He was head and shoulders the best player on the pitch

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 02:43:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm again amazed that the oldest players save the day for Italy. And the whole tournament, Italy played with unusual composture. Something to prove?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 02:45:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The NYT gives credit to the coach:
A Man on a Mission to Change Italy's Spirit - NYTimes.com

Prandelli's mission is profound. He took the Italian job two years ago, after the Azzurri had returned from a woeful World Cup failure in South Africa. The squad needed new direction, and Prandelli was determined to change its spirit and change its style, from negativity to as close to the Beautiful Game as Italy is capable of performing.
He isn't there yet. The Italy we are watching is tactically innovative, but it has rogues and misfits that the coach tries to re-educate in the few short weeks he spends with players while they are away from their clubs. Watching him handle Mario Balotelli, the brooding, explosive, potentially brilliant 21-year-old striker, is a sight to see in itself.
Seeing how Prandelli tries to reform Balotelli is one thing. Seeing him trust and try to draw out the essence of Antonio Cassano, who comes from the streets of southern Italy, is another.
Then there is the conversion of Daniele De Rossi, the Roma midfielder, whom Prandelli surprised by selecting him to defend against Spain.
The idea was that De Rossi should step out of a three-man back line, as Franz Beckenbauer did for Germany in the 1970s. The concept is to turn defense into attack as soon the moment presents itself.
It is an art that De Rossi himself did not know he possessed, one of the arts that Prandelli seeks during a tournament that will define his management for as long as he holds the post.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 06:36:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Heh... and even that didn't work :-) And still better than racists.

Those graphs are great. What are the white or black triangles?

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 02:43:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Fouls suffered (w) and committed (b); the symbol set must be the same as here.

by das monde on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 02:56:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Pirlo suffers fouls gladly

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 03:46:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I dunno, I remember looking at Young as he approached the penalty area and said to my parents "he's gonna miss". But I can't remember a single thing Young did right all match, he had a shocker.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 02:45:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

In a morning show there was a short interview with Panenka, who told that he trained his signature for two years before applying it. I didn't think it's that difficult.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 02:47:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Euro 2012: Ashley Cole and Ashley Young backed to recover from England's penalty shoot-out miss misery - Telegraph

In this article he says it was two years indeed.

by das monde on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 02:58:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Panenka's lesson for England (none / 0)

England coach Roy Hogson still blames luck and doesn't get why practice didn't work:

"I think penalties is always down to luck. It is a lottery. It is just the way it goes in football. You can practise and practice as much as you want but when it comes to the occasion, the big stage, it is always difficult. I hate watching it.

At least he gets what's unrealistic in his practice:

Euro 2012: spot-kick obsession weighing England down, laments Roy Hodgson, after defeat to Italy - Telegraph

I'd been watching Ashley Young and Ashley Cole smashing in penalties in training but you can't reproduce the tired legs, pressure and nervous tension It has become an obsession for us in English football.

Well there is a lesson in Panenka's account of how he invented his signature move:

Panenka reflects on perfect penalty at EURO '76 - UEFA.com

After each training session I used to stay behind after a game with our goalkeeper and take penalties - we would play for a bar of chocolate or a glass of beer. Since he was a very good goalkeeper it became an expensive proposition for me. So, sometimes before going to sleep I tried to think of ways of getting the better of him, to recoup my losses.
I got the idea that if I delayed the kick and just lightly chipped it, a goalkeeper who dived to the corner of the goal could not jump back up into the air, and this became the basis of my philosophy. I started slowly to test it and apply it in practice. As a side effect I started to gain weight, because I was winning the bets. I started to use it in friendlies, in minor leagues, and eventually I perfected it so I used it in the main league as well. The culmination was when I used it at the European Championship.

IMHO the key part is right at the start: he practised penalties after each training session. When players are exhausted and just want to go home already.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 06:02:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Panenka's lesson for England (none / 0)

Another element from das monde's article:

Antonin Panenka (Czechoslovakia v West Germany, 1976) - Great Goals Retold - FourFourTwo

I guess we were ahead of our time, really, because we brought in local fans to stand behind the goal making a loud noise while we were training with our penalties. It was never going to be like a real penalty shoot-out but at least it put us under a bit of pressure.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 06:09:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Pirlo was great but honestly I thought it was mostly Buffon.

England did what it always does, IMO, and did enough to steal a win, but Buffon saved three sure-on goals during play, and then made good saves in the penalty phase.

I would give Buffon the man of the match award.

Hart looks like the best English goalie I've seen in quite some time. Which isn't saying much I guess.

by Upstate NY on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 10:30:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Agreed that Buffon was good during play (so was Hart though), but Buffon made only a single save in the penalty phase, and that of a crappy slow shot.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 01:36:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well it certainly won't be England 5-9 Italy.

What a match that would be.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Sun Jun 24th, 2012 at 03:59:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Italy deserved to win, though.

by IM on Sun Jun 24th, 2012 at 06:13:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Quarterfinals scoring (none / 0)

Forgot to score bets for the quarterfinals. If I made no errors or omissions, there are five right-on-all-four bets:

DoDo, pre-group-stage: 3
DoDo, pre-QF: 3 (shouldn't have raised my hopes about England and switch that prediction)
eurogreen, pre-group-stage: 3
eurogreen, pre-QF: 3
Migeru, pre-group-stage: 2 (1 in the right QF match)
Migeru, pre-QF: 3
Helen, pre-group-stage: 2
Helen, pre-QF: 4
redstar, pre-group-stage & pre-QF too: 2
ceebs, pre-group-stage: 2
ceebs, pre-QF: 1
cagatacos: 4
whataboutbob: 2
Euroliberal: 3
Metatone: 4
Jerome a Paris: 2
NearlyNormal: 4
Nomad: 4
IM, post-QF1: 3
Crazy Horse, post-QF1: 2

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 02:00:09 PM EST

Semifinals scoring (none / 0)

Again the score is the number of correctly guessed match winners (here: finalists).

DoDo, pre-group-stage: 1
DoDo, pre-QF & pre-SF: 1
eurogreen, pre-group-stage: 1
eurogreen, pre-QF: 0
eurogreen, pre-SF: 0
Migeru, pre-group-stage: 1
Migeru, pre-QF: 1
Migeru, pre-SF: 2
Helen, pre-group-stage: 1
Helen, pre-QF & pre-SF: 1
ceebs, pre-group-stage: 0
ceebs, pre-QF: 1
cagatacos, pre-QF & pre-SF: 1
whataboutbob, pre-QF: 1
Euroliberal, pre-QF: 1
Metatone, pre-QF: 1
Jerome a Paris, pre-QF: 0
NearlyNormal, pre-QF: 2
Nomad, pre-QF: 1
IM, pre-QF & pre-SF: 1
Crazy Horse, pre-QF: 1

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Fri Jun 29th, 2012 at 05:40:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Semifinals round of betting (none / 0)

Time to place the third set of bets for the remaining three matches.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 02:01:20 PM EST

Re: Semifinals round of betting (none / 1)

I stay with...

S1: Spain
S2: Germany
F: Spain

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 02:02:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I will have the same.

by IM on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 11:46:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

S1: Portugal - Spain
S2: Germany - Italy

F: Spain - Italy

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 02:06:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Wht impressed you about Italy this much? I think Pirlo and the rest would be allowed much less room and time to play the ball by any of the three other semifinals participants than England. They can cut through defenses better than France, too.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 02:21:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Easy: I am betting on Spain beating Portugal, but nobody has won two Eurocups in a row so Spain must lose the final, and I don't want to bet on Germany winning.

Plus, Italy is perfectly able to win both matches on penalties.

I've been so busy I haven't actually watched any games yet this time.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 03:36:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Let's say

S1: Portugal 2 - 3 Spain

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 03:57:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Semifinals round of betting (none / 1)

I'm sticking

S1: Portugal - Spain

S2: Germany - Italy

F : Spain - Germany

I wouldn't be surprised if Portugal beat Spain, whose tiki-taki is beginning to be tactically countered. But I'll stay with Spain cos Im not convinced that Ronaldo alone can beat 'em.

Italy just queezed past an inferior england team and will get a whipping from Germany, who will go on and beat whoever in the final.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 03:58:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That was also exactly my prediction above and I think also that there are good reasons to stick to it.

by cagatacos on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 05:05:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Euro 2012: Xavi Hernández warns that Cristiano Ronaldo is not Portugal's sole threat ahead of semi-final - Telegraph

But I'll stay with Spain cos Im not convinced that Ronaldo alone can beat 'em.

Xavi doesn't think it's Ronaldo alone, nor do I:

"I've watched all their games," Xavi said. "They are a team of a high level and have gained in confidence in the last two games they won.
"They are better than in the World Cup. They have improved, matured, and defend very well and then they are so dangerous on the wings with Nani and Cristiano Ronaldo -- players who can dribble and shoot brilliantly.
"They know how to hit you on the break very well and (Fabio) Coentrao is also in good form.
"They have players with a lot of talent and also in midfield with (Joao) Moutinho and (Raul) Meireles. They are top level, so it will be a very difficult game."

That said, Spain is still better organised.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 06:11:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

S1: Portugal - Spain

S2: Germany - Italy

F : Portugal - Germany

I agree with Helen that people have got the measure of Spain's ticky-tacky Subbuteo game. France managed to shut them out fairly well, they only lacked the means of scoring goals. And Cristiano may be the geezer for that...

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 07:35:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Spain - Portugal (none / 0)

Portugal's full-field attack is effective against Spain's tiki-taka, but IMO it will only work if they score fast or they'll get tired first.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 03:44:26 PM EST

Portugal is defending well.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 03:48:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Numerous scoring opportunities too... And Ronaldo McDonaldo blazes them all over the bar.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 05:00:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's taken 100 minutes for the Portuguese to get tired enough to let Spain play...

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 05:06:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Game over- only the silly pot shots left to play.

Since Ronaldo only gets one shot (over the bar), I guess that makes the odds 60:40 in favour of Spain.

_{It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue
- Queen Elizabeth II}

by eurogreen on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 05:18:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Cesc denied Ronaldo his penalty kick.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 05:27:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Spain - Portugal (4.00 / 2)

Well, what was Ronaldo doing waiting till the end for his penalty ? He should have been number 1, but I suspect he wanted to be the glory boy, scoring the penalty that took them into the final.

Instead he's the goat who didn't get to take his penalty.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 05:33:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Apparently Cecs wasn't feeling very good tonight so when they offered him to go second he asked to go last.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 05:35:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ronaldo is no Pirlo?

The fourth Spanish penalty - a high volley to a top corner - looks like a pragmatic version of Panenko. And it was followed by a crossbar miss just as well ;-) The last two shots were decided by fractions.

by das monde on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 08:31:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Spain - Portugal (none / 1)

Hm. Now Portugal showed the other two semifinalists how to deal with tiki-taka. Since both Germany and Italy have playmakers, their attack would be different than Portugal's or France's winger-dominated style. Thus IMO if Spain is to have any chance in the final, the key factor for is Torres.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 05:42:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Even if Spain were outplayed, they are still smart enough to know their chances. Even is their chance is just one side of a dice, it is not negligible. That's what you get in Texas Hold'em when you push all-in pre-flop against pocket aces.

by das monde on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 08:43:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That's what you get in Texas Hold'em when you push all-in pre-flop against pocket aces.

I presume that means something, but I cannot imagine what it might be :-))

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Jun 28th, 2012 at 03:06:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]