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European Salon de News, Discussion et Klatsch -22 June

by In Wales Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 04:40:21 PM EST

 A Daily Review Of International Online Media 


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by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 03:10:43 AM EST
German government, opposition join forces to save euro | News | DW.DE | 21.06.2012

The main opposition parties have agreed to support Chancellor Angela Merkel's economic measures for stability in the eurozone. The deal aims to cut back public debt but also boost growth and employment.

Following a meeting with Merkel's conservative coalition on Thursday, the opposition Social Democrats and Green party announced they would support plans paving the way for the European Stability Mechanism (ESM).

They said they had reached an agreement to boost growth and create more jobs in the eurozone, as well as curb debt and implement tighter controls.

"This is an important step away from focusing on saving alone," said SPD chairman Sigmar Gabriel.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 12:24:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
See also Migeru's link to Wolfgang Münchau in Thurdsay's Salon.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 12:32:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yup, the SPD are hopeless.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 06:09:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
German president will delay euro rescue fund approval | News | DW.DE | 21.06.2012

President Joachim Gauck announced on Thursday that he would not ratify the EU's second-generation rescue fund, known as the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), until legal challenges to the fund had been cleared. The German Constitutional Court had asked earlier in the day that the president grant the Karslruhe judges time to examine a probable legal challenge from the Left party.

A spokesman for Gauck said that "the German president intends to acquiesce to this request," saying it was in the traditional spirit of cooperation between the main German political entities and out of respect to the Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe.

This decision means that the ESM and the fiscal pact will probably not be able to come into force across the entire bloc on July 1 as previously planned.

German politicians had been racing to make the deadline anyway, with a breakthrough compromise announced on Thursday between the ruling coalition and opposition parties. Both German houses of parliament, the Bundestag and the Bundesrat, are scheduled to vote on the deals on June 29.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 04:06:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The FAZ writes that Merkel apparently tried to persuade Gauck to disregard the court's request. This is something unheard of.

Gesetz zum Euro-Rettungsschirm ESM: Gauck unterzeichnet Fiskalpakt vorerst nicht - Inland - FAZ Act euro rescue ESM: Gauck signed Fiscal Pact for the time being not - domestic - FAZ
Karlsruhe ,,entsetzt" über Kanzlerin MerkelKarlsruhe shocked about Chancellor Angela Merkel
Beim Bundesverfassungsgericht zeigte man sich entsetzt, dass offenbar Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel (CDU) versucht habe, Gauck dazu zu bewegen, die Gesetze sogleich auszufertigen und dadurch Rechtsschutz zu verhindern. Hätte sich Gauck nicht umstimmen lassen, so wäre das aus Sicht der Karlsruher Richter einer ,,Verfassungskrise" gleichgekommen.The Federal Constitutional Court is shocked that apparently Chancellor Angela Merkel (CDU) tried to move Gauck to put the law into force immediately and thereby avoid legal recourse. If Gauck had not been swayed, from the perspective of the justices it would have been a constitutional crisis.
Regierungssprecher Seibert teilte mit, Frau Merkel habe nie mit Gauck über die Frage und den Zeitpunkt der Ausfertigung der Gesetze zum ESM und zum Fiskalpakt gesprochen. Anderslautende Behauptungen entsprächen nicht den Tatsachen.Government spokesman told Seibert, Mrs. Merkel had never spoken to Gauck on the issue and the date of execution of the laws for the ESM and the Fiscal Pact. Any allegations do not correspond with the facts.
by Katrin on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 05:23:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Without commenting on Gauck's inability to understand the progressive direction needed in Europe, I'd like to point out that, Gott Sei Fuckin Dank,
there's no Christian Wulff in the current equation.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 03:49:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why? Gauck is also mostly terrible. Open Thread: Gauck und der Krieg » Spiegelfechter
,,Und dass es wieder deutsche Gefallene gibt, ist für unsere glückssüchtige Gesellschaft schwer zu ertragen"


Von überall könnte das Volk, Urbrut alles Undemokratischen, Zelle des Terrors, über die gewählten Hüter von Wachstum und Wohlstand® kommen. - flatter
by generic on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 05:49:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As a constitutional challenge was quite likely, why this scheme with little likelihood of success? Despair or goading to court to do what they have no balls for?
by oliver on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 04:58:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, it worked so well: there is no alternative and there is not even time to exchange arguments. Shut up. They probably don't believe that the Constitutional Court sees an alternative, although they had plenty of warning.
by Katrin on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 05:15:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The court cannot suggest an alternative. The law is in effect a constitutional change. The only thing to rule on is whether it fails the test for changes short of a total revision which would need a referendum.

Presumably the matter goes back to parliament if the court finds a flaw with the law. What happens then is up to parliament and depends on the exact ruling, whether the courts objects to the law adopting the treaty or the treaty itself. Parliament would then have to choose between not allowing ratification or starting proceedings for a total revision of the constitution.

by oliver on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 06:14:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Nope. Not a revision of the constitution. It would need a completely new constitution. Article 146.
by Katrin on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 06:25:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes. I really doubt anybody would go down that route. If this treaty is struck down, it'll mean eurodämmerung.
by oliver on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 06:41:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If this treaty is not struck down, it'll mean democracydämmerung.
by Katrin on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 06:53:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We're already seeing Merkel wants it to mean Bundesverfassungsgerichtsdämmerung.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 06:57:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ha! No chance of that. If she believes that, she is misjudging the legal, and the political standing of the court. I am talking about a constitutional crisis and political earthquakes with consideration.

Article 20, which along with Article 1 cannot be altered, has a sentence No. 4 concerning the relationship between chancellors who are in breach of Art. 20 and lampposts.

by Katrin on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 07:12:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hehe...
Article 20 [Basic institutional principles; defense of the constitutional order]

(1) The Federal Republic of Germany is a democratic and social federal state.

(2) All state authority is derived from the people. It shall be exercised by the people through elections and other votes and through specific legislative, executive, and judicial bodies.

(3) The legislature shall be bound by the constitutional order, the executive and the judiciary by law and justice.

(4) All Germans shall have the right to resist any person seeking to abolish this constitutional order, if no other remedy is available.

From Wiki:
The German government claims that a "4th paragraph" was added to Article 20 in 1968 which says, "All Germans shall have the right to resist any person seeking to abolish this constitutional order, should no other remedy be possible." However this provision is (according to the common opinion of lawyers) not protected by the eternity clause, because it was not included in this Basic Law as originally enacted. Most lawyers claim (though with basis in philosophy of law rather than in this Basic Law) that the amending legislator has no power to enlarge the eternity clause, but at any rate the words "article 20" as appearing in article 79 mean "article 20 as in force at the time article 79 was enacted," and the amending legislator did not in any way reveal an intention to put the right of resistance under the eternity clause. (That is, not by force of this Basic Law itself. If it be argued that the right to resist an illegitimate government is of natural law, then as such it would be included in the words of Article 1 paragraph 2 as given above.)
Question: what happened in 1968 that prompted the addition of this clause to the Basic Law?

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 07:24:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It was supposed to be a counter-weight to the changes of the Basic Law regarding state of emergency. Prior to 1968 there weren't any rules on a state of emergency, leaving it to the occupying powers. The right to resistance was supposed a check on governments misusing emergency powers.
by IM on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 07:48:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by IM on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 07:51:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So the departure of the occupying powers required state-of-emergency legislation which required some sort of right-to-resist.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 24th, 2012 at 05:03:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The question if sentence 4 falls under the eternity clause or not is moot anyway: if we will ever use it, neither side will care. The thing is symbolic, making clear where the ultimate power belongs.
by Katrin on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 08:45:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes. In a coup or civil war situation an appeal to the courts is not practicable anyway. Inter armes enim silent leges and so on.
by IM on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 08:52:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
She doesn't. She's a lot of things, but not outright stupid. That makes me wonder why she tried anyway. The more I think about it, the more it seems like creating plausible deniability to shift the blame when the whole thing comes down.
by oliver on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 08:14:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You can't "shift the blame" to Karlsruhe and think you get away with it. The Constitutional Court is the most respected institution we have. If you really want to lose, pick a fight with them.

I really believe that Merkel doesn't get that. And that would mean she believes in her own spin, which is always a very bad sign.

by Katrin on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 08:50:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How do you define picking a fight? For example I'd call the government reaction to the Hartz 4 ruling open contempt.

Von überall könnte das Volk, Urbrut alles Undemokratischen, Zelle des Terrors, über die gewählten Hüter von Wachstum und Wohlstand® kommen. - flatter
by generic on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 09:12:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Hartz 4 ruling said that there must be a transparent way to define the needs of a person. It did not say that Hartz 4 must be increased, just that the way to calculate it must be transparent. And so the government did exactly that: presented a way of calculating the minimum a person needs that enabled them not to raise the payment by more than 5€.
by Katrin on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 09:35:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The court objected that the way they calculated the needs of a person were arbitrary. Then the government declared they will change how they calculate however they were quite vocal that they will not raise the rates. So how could the basis for calculation be anything other than arbitrary if they state beforehand that the results will be broadly the same as with the old method?

Von überall könnte das Volk, Urbrut alles Undemokratischen, Zelle des Terrors, über die gewählten Hüter von Wachstum und Wohlstand® kommen. - flatter
by generic on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 10:12:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If I remember correctly, they didn't say that. They even altered the underlying basket and removed articles like alcohol. (We know that all these lazy unemployed only get drunk on the taxpayer's money, don't we?) I agree it's a sham, but can you prove that? It's transparent, and the court didn't demand anything else. And if you don't like the basket, sue.  
by Katrin on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 11:05:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Your probably right. Though I remember that they started talking about a "Lohnabstandsgebot" right around that time.

Karlsruhe:

Urteil in Karlsruhe: Hartz-IV-Sätze sind verfassungswidrig | tagesschau.de

: "Da nicht festgestellt werden kann, dass die gesetzlich festgesetzten Regelleistungsbeträge evident unzureichend sind, ist der Gesetzgeber nicht unmittelbar von Verfassungs wegen verpflichtet, höhere Leistungen festzusetzen. Er muss vielmehr ein Verfahren zur realitäts- und bedarfsgerechten Ermittlung der zur Sicherung eines menschenwürdigen Existenzminimums notwendigen Leistungen entsprechend den aufgezeigten verfassungsrechtlichen Vorgaben durchführen und dessen Ergebnis im Gesetz als Leistungsanspruch verankern. Wegen des gesetzgeberischen Gestaltungsermessens ist das Bundesverfassungsgericht nicht befugt, aufgrund eigener Einschätzungen und Wertungen gestaltend selbst einen bestimmten Leistungsbetrag festzusetzen. Die verfassungswidrigen Normen bleiben daher bis zu einer Neuregelung durch den Gesetzgeber weiterhin anwendbar."

Showing that they didn't comply with the ruling would be easy:

Feynsinn » Deutschland zwischen Hartz und HRE

Interessanterweise werden Erwachsenen für Schreibwaren nach wie vor mehr Mittel zugebilligt als Kindern. Allein daran ist schon erkennbar, was hier novelliert wurde, nämlich gar nichts. Niemand hat sich bemüht, die Datenbasis den Anfoderungen der Gegenwart anzupassen, worin geradezu die Aufforderung besteht, jene Willkür an den Tag zu legen, die Karlsruhe dem Gesetzgeber untersagt hatte.

Of course they would just repeat the process so why bother.

Von überall könnte das Volk, Urbrut alles Undemokratischen, Zelle des Terrors, über die gewählten Hüter von Wachstum und Wohlstand® kommen. - flatter

by generic on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 01:24:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
She isn't picking a fight. She pricks the court just below the threshold for that and then she'll implement the ruling she provoked with a sad face. The Kohlist wing of the party is neutralized as they cannot openly demand a breach of the constitution.
by oliver on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 09:30:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
She is trying to shift paradigms. "Democracy conforming with the market", remember? No nasty parliaments. What way out has she got if Karlsruhe stops that?
by Katrin on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 11:09:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Merkel's goal is to keep Merkel in office. To do that she wants to save the Euro. She doesn't actually need to save the Euro. She just needs a good excuse for failure.
by oliver on Sat Jun 23rd, 2012 at 12:20:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If she fails, she will need more than a very good excuse. Germany will lose most, if the euro fails and then it won't matter if it was Merkel's fault, or the lazy Greeks' fault, or the confidence fairy's fault: we would be rid of Merkel.

We are back at the "stupid or evil" question. The two aren't mutually exclusive, though.

by Katrin on Sat Jun 23rd, 2012 at 02:13:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You don't change leaders in the middle of a crisis. Spe may very well be speculating on that.
by oliver on Sun Jun 24th, 2012 at 08:27:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If she is speculating on that, she is proving another of your statements wrong: we would know she is outright stupid. Her popularity depends entirely on the fact that so far the crisis isn't felt in Germany.
by Katrin on Sun Jun 24th, 2012 at 08:40:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You are making the implicit assumption that the Euro can be saved. If you drop that assumption, her behavior makes perfect sense.
by oliver on Sun Jun 24th, 2012 at 01:32:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am making the assumption that the only policy that makes sense for an "export nation" is to support other countries' ability to afford imports. More generally, only if there is prosperity in Europe, there can be prosperity in the country that is in the centre of Europe. This is true with and without the euro, of course. Merkel's policy is not only murderous for our neighbours--it is suicidal too.

Not even if one assumed the euro could not be saved (and it is true that so far I don't see it's impossible to do so), would Merkel's policy make sense. She is deliberately creating tension between European peoples. I don't see anyway that her policy saves some cents if the euro breaks up. Even if it did, we would pay dearly elsewhere for it.  

by Katrin on Sun Jun 24th, 2012 at 03:13:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The current level of imports in the European periphery could be sustained only if Germany directly pays for them. So German exports to the Eurozone shall drop in any case.
Now, Germany could allow wages to rise in Germany. However, most German exports go outside the Eurozone.

And even if that were tried, I have serious doubts about inflation being easier to control in the periphery than in Germany. So even if the ECB opens the floodgates, we have no guarantee the price/wage feedback would be worse in the periphery, worsening the situation.

Secondly, I was talking about a policy that makes political sense, not economic sense.

by oliver on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 04:40:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The current level of imports in the European periphery could be sustained only if Germany directly pays for them. So German exports to the Eurozone shall drop in any case

I believe Meck-Pomm can't pay their imports either. Can we kick those lazies out too, please?

Now, Germany could allow wages to rise in Germany.

I would appreciate that. I note that current policy is to crush wages in the periphery, though.

However, most German exports go outside the Eurozone.

You are a bit cavalier about the ~ 40% "exports" that remain in the currency union. Hey, wait, exports? Why are they "exports"? You are not by any chance from Meck-Pomm, Saarland, or some other lazyland, are you, Oliver?

I have serious doubts about inflation being easier to control in the periphery than in Germany

Sigh. Which inflation?

Secondly, I was talking about a policy that makes political sense, not economic sense.

A policy that makes any sense would be nice. Er, do you think a policy that makes no economic sense can make political sense?

by Katrin on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 10:31:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Er, do you think a policy that makes no economic sense can make political sense?

Sadly yes.

(Sigh...)

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 10:38:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No. But for a while it may seem so.
by Katrin on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 02:26:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Diplomacy is about surviving until the next century. Politics is about surviving until Friday afternoon."

- Yes Minister

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 02:31:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That sounds straight out of Game of Thrones.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 03:46:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The details change, but the internal logic of power remains a constant.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 03:57:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
oliver:
most German exports go outside the Eurozone

~60% of German exports go to European countries, most of which are either in the euro area or are converging towards the euro, ie have their currency pegged. It would take a little digging to estimate the percentage that goes to euro + euro-pegged countries, but it is unlikely to be less than 50%.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 12:24:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Checking 2011 numbers, the multitude of mostly non-European euro-pegged countries don't amount to much: euro+euro-pegged receive 42% of 2011 German exports. However, 59% of exports went to the EU, and 71% to European countries (including the whole of Russia and Turkey), and most of those countries would need to change policy after an Eurozone disintegration, too.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 05:39:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And even if that were tried, I have serious doubts about inflation being easier to control in the periphery than in Germany.

So what?

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 12:29:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We do not have an original problem of public finances (except in Greece). We are facing an economic imbalance. So either

  • wages/prices in the periphery fall
  • wages/prices in the core rise
  • the correction is done by devaluation of the currency

If we had a functional common labor market and common institutions the problem could also be solved by migration. However, the legal right to live and work everywhere in the union doesn't give one the practical ability to do so. I cannot learn Hungarian or Greek by legislative action, nor can other people learn German that way. In addition we cannot export young, productive people in Europe without smashing the tax base, which the member states need to run their own pension systems, health care system and guarantee their banks.
by oliver on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 04:02:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Of those three, option 2 is by far preferable, and option 1 is totally unacceptable.

Except if you're a bankster. But fuck the banksters.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 04:07:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is a very revealing comment, because it assumes the only thing that can be done is to adjust relative labour costs, ignores the fact that Germany has been depressing its own wages for a decade and is reluctant to give up that advantage, and assumes that there can be no fiscal transfers. The young, productive people of europe are exporting themselves as we speak, anyway, destroying tax bases and making any attempts at expansionary austerity moot. There is a third way out which you also ignore: allowing defaults or open-ended bailouts to occur within the Eurozone.

Recall: To make or break the euro: Germany's euro trilemma By: Jörg Bibow (24.02.2012)

Replacing lending by transfers, fiscal union proper could save and make the euro overnight. By contrast, ECB liquidity cannot make competitiveness imbalances and the corresponding debt flows go away, even as the foul debts now accumulate on the Eurosystem's balance sheet. So here is the euro trilemma: Germany cannot have all three, perpetual export surpluses, a no-transfer/no-bailout monetary union, and a "clean" independent central bank. Germany's call.


If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 04:11:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And of course this is a case of European Tribune giving you your news a couple of years early...

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 04:29:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A couple of years earlier we had another paper by Jörg Bibow: Germany Is Unfit For The Euro.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 04:33:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We are facing an economic imbalance

Why did I mention Meck-Pomm? What is the difference between Greece and Meck-Pomm? Do you want to kick out Meck-Pomm too? So: what about the economic imbalance?  

by Katrin on Tue Jun 26th, 2012 at 04:42:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Germany has advantages as a currency area, mainly that all Germans speak a common language.

However, it would be dishonest to not go to the heart of the matter. There is a German people. There is no European people. Therefore parts of Germany pay for other parts. To be sure there's a limit to that solidarity. Berlin begins testing it. And there's some European solidarity. But it is not strong enough, nor would the potential recipients of that solidarity accept the loss of their independence.

by oliver on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 02:09:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The common German language is an invention, and not even a particularly good one: I don't understand Bavarians with their dialect. Or Pfälzer. Yes, I have actually heard two of them: astonishing. They could just as well speak Greek. I am afraid, linguistically you are on very thin ice. The German people is an invention too. There is absolutely no reason why we couldn't invent a European people too. It's a political decision.

"To be sure there's a limit to that solidarity."
Hehe. That remark sounds Bavarian: they have received Länderfinanzausgleich for 32 years, and it enabled them to industrialise and get rid of an excess of southerly laziness. Apparently the method of a transfer union is successful. The moment these southerners became competitive, they demonstrated their ungratefulness and started whining: yes, Bavarians, now you've got to pay. And if you don't like it, stop that talk of secession: do it. Good riddance. German people, my foot. And then Bavaria will see that it depended on being part of a larger unit.

by Katrin on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 03:32:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Any people is an invention. Nevertheless it is real and cannot be disregarded for more than a certain extent and a certain time. And obviously there is a political decision to be made here. But it is to be made by the people and the outcome is fairly predictable. It will be "No". This being so, it is very likely that even scheduling a referendum on this would kill the Euro by a bank run.
by oliver on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 04:58:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What do you think would be the result of a referendum on the Solidaritätszuschlag?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 06:18:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Any people is an invention. Nevertheless it is real and cannot be disregarded for more than a certain extent and a certain time

A loaded statement. Apparently you mean the German people, and not the European one. And you take for granted that someone wants to treat it as not real and to disregard it. Do elaborate, Oliver.  

We don't agree on what the question of the referendum must be, and consequently about the outcome.

by Katrin on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 07:58:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What does a common language have to do with a common currency? Do you think India would work better with several currencies? Or any number of past empires?

Who is and who isn't included in your "German people"? East Germans? Austrians? Swiss Germans? Spätaussiedler? People born & raised in Germany with or without German as first language but with parents or grandparents elsewhere? And is inclusion or exclusion dependent on context?

Do you think a measure decided on by politicians with the justification of solidarity is a direct and exclusive function of solidarity felt by the population?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 04:32:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A common language facilitates a common labor market. I do not presume that I can speak competently about India, but I note that independence movements are not unknown in parts of India.
As for past empires you should definitely note that they had no problem imposing internal devaluation on provinces.

The German people is what the German people consider the German people. And you cannot completely overrule the people here. The level of transfers necessary would require giving up independence. This requires referenda.

by oliver on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 05:29:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In which case there should have been referenda in all other Eurozone countries on the transfers consequent on Germany's internal devaluation.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 05:33:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Making my point.
by oliver on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 07:42:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... but not the Constitutional Court's point.
by Katrin on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 07:47:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, the court would also not allow the Bundestag to give away unlimited legislative power, which giving the other states a veto power implies.
by oliver on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 07:50:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The German people is what the German people consider the German people.

LOL. I asked you. If I asked someone else from the circle you consider competent to answer the question, I'd expect to get different answers. (And what about people who consider themselves part of the "German people" but aren't considered to be part of them by other self-described Germans? Or the opposite? Do their opinions count?)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 05:43:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, in my personal opinion, all ethnic Germans and those immigrants that accept certain norms and want to be part of the people.

But it really doesn't matter what I personally think.

by oliver on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 07:45:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So in your opinion ethnic Danes, Frisians, Sorbians, and Roma aren't Germans. And second class citizens "with migration background" have to "accept certain norms" (which?), while first class citizens are free to shit on these norms.
by Katrin on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 07:50:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Do you count East Germans as ethnic Germans? Austrians? Swiss Germans? Spätaussiedler?

What about ethnic Germans who don't accept "certain norms"? (Which?)

And again, whose opinion counts if yours doesn't?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 08:35:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A common language facilitates a common labor market.

It helps but it has never been a necessity. Common labour markets emerged just fine in every conurbation in multi-language settings, from Austria-Hungary to Nigeria; and work force migration well beyond language borders is quite common across history, be it the mostly Italian workers who built railways in Germany or African victims of slave trade.

independence movements are not unknown in parts of India.

This would have a connection to the economic rationality of a common currency only if you think that India's fragmentation into single-language statelets is a likely, nay unavoidable development.

they had no problem imposing internal devaluation on provinces

They had no problem with strategic investment, either.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 05:52:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the tax base, which the member states need to run their own pension systems, health care system and guarantee their banks.

Sovereigns don't fund their implicit guarantees out of taxes, but out of seigniorage. The Maastricht rules have basically destroyed the ability of the Eurozone to fund public pensions, health care, and bank deposit guarantees.

Time to abandon Bundesbank fundamentalism and allow central bank monetization of implicit sovereign guarantees.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jun 27th, 2012 at 04:50:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Berlusconi learnt the hard way that there are exceptions.... (as did Papandreou,  Zapatero and lots of others).
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Sun Jun 24th, 2012 at 09:30:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Which is why Spain, France, Greece, Denmark, UK... have changed government since 2009.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 24th, 2012 at 02:08:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We have? You wouldn't know from looking at the news.

(Maybe I'll do a writeup of the recent tax agreement once I can write it without interspersing swear words in every sentence.)

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Jun 25th, 2012 at 01:19:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What's wrong with swear words in every sentence?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Jun 25th, 2012 at 01:19:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
With the deal they cut, I'm not sure anything is wrong with that.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Jun 25th, 2012 at 01:24:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Boring. Swear words should be used like spice, in discreet amounts.
by IM on Mon Jun 25th, 2012 at 01:32:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Some days you just want a vindaloo.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Jun 25th, 2012 at 02:40:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You misunderstood--I mean that Merkel's attitude is that there is no alternative and that the court can't decide anything else, although Voßkuhl and Huber have issued plenty of warnings.

If the court decides against the law, it will be more than "a flaw", it will be an earthquake: ESM and fecal pact are against the democracy clause of Article 20.

by Katrin on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 06:30:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How interesting that the Fecal pact comes into force if a majority of the countries ratify it, whether Germany does or not.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 06:32:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
LOL. But isn't the fecal pact tied to the ESM? The ESM comes into force when 80% of the funds are there, and Germany's share is more than 20%, so that would be a veto.
by Katrin on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 06:36:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
As I understand it, signing would have prevented the petitioners from seeking interim relief. The law would initially have taken effect as scheduled and been valid until the court had ruled.

Gauck's decision gives the court the opportunity to decide whether the complaints warrant putting the whole thing on hold until it has had a chance to consider the issue.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 05:27:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's more than interim relief, because this is an international treaty: once it is ratified, there is no way out. This is why the Constitutional Court ALWAYS asks the president not to sign it, if there is a constitutional challenge to a treaty. And never ever has a president refused to comply with this request. And there has never before been a government asking him to do something else.

I know I am repeating myself, but Merkel is the worst chancellor this republic has had.

by Katrin on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 05:58:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Which is presumably why she will be reelected next year.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 06:12:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Heck, where is the garlic?

A lot of things can happen in this time. She shouldn't be too sure.

by Katrin on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 06:18:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It must be said for fairness' sake that she denies doing this. If it is really true and the court accepts the challenge she's in trouble. But on the other hand, if the ESM is struck down, there will be gigantic trouble anyway.
by oliver on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 06:16:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks all, for a very enlightening discussion of this issue.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 07:06:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Seconded.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sat Jun 23rd, 2012 at 05:50:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
how cute their little tap dance is...

creating jobs through government while cutting bloated public sector jobs and services, right.

you can see where this is going, next comes verse two, wherein precious, dwindling tax dollars are refunneled to 'job creators', aka fat cat 1% 'friends of friends' to privatise anything and everything possible.

the walmartisation of the social economy proceeds according to plan.

verse three, services like rail, water and healthcare all take a quality dive as profits uber alles kicks in, traintracks buckle, foot and mouth, spongiform and bird flus return through unregulated 'farming', nuclear power is subsidised while alt energy is slashed, unions are further crushed or co-opted, then the government has to step in again to mop up the mess, which has mysteriously enrichened a select few,  given ample time to prepare their personal plush lifeboats before impact.

chorus, all together in lusty abandon: 'who could have possibly seen this would happen?'

not we, surely...

It's a fine line between homage, parody, and consumer opportunism. Jess Walter

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 06:33:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Greek government faces political balancing act | Europe | DW.DE | 21.06.2012

Athens has a new government coalition. On Thursday, election winner and head of the conservative New Democracy party, Antonis Samaras was sworn in as prime minister. But his government is not exactly stable.

Aside from the conservatives, the new coalition in Athens is made up of the socialist Pasok party of former finance minister Evangelos Venizelos and the moderate leftist party Democratic Left. Together, the three parties have a broad majority of 179 out of 300 seats in the Athens parliament. The two leftist junior coalition partners, however, will not field any of the ministers for the new cabinet.

In an almost passionate statement after his swearing in ceremony, new Prime Minister Samaras appealed to the patriotism of the Greek people.

"I ask the Greek people to show patriotism, to stay united and to give me their trust that with God's help we will do everything we can to take the country out of the crisis," the 61-year-old said. "Tomorrow, I will ask the government to work hard to give tangible hope to the Greek people. I have the majority to form a long-term government of stability and hope."



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 12:24:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by das monde on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 05:57:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
how long will it last?

ask christine lagarde, she knows.

i hope this guy is going to plant some olive trees after he has his snack, they may take five years to bear properly.

:(

It's a fine line between homage, parody, and consumer opportunism. Jess Walter

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 06:38:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Anti-piracy treaty falters in EU Parliament | Sci-Tech | DW.DE | 21.06.2012

The Anti-Counterfeiting Trade Agreement (ACTA) suffered another setback as an EU Parliament committee voted against the deal. While the agreement still has supporters, its detractors seem to be winning the upper hand.

Politicians only recognized how explosive ACTA was when thousands of Europeans took to the streets in protest. Several countries, Germany included, intend to ratify the treaty.

In Germany, Justice Minister Sabine Leutheusser-Schnarrenberger pointed out that there were "open questions" to address before enacting the agreement. After Thursday's vote in the EU Parliament's International Trade Committee, in which 19 parliamentarians opposed the agreement and 12 voted in favor, the same is happening in Brussels.

The vote brought ACTA a step closer to an early death as the committee recommended the EU Parliament reject the deal at a vote in July. The EU Commission has also already submitted a request to the European Court of Justice regarding the treaty's compatible with EU law.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 12:24:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Explosives found at Swedish nuclear plant | News | DW.DE | 21.06.2012

Sweden has tightened security at its nuclear plants after explosives were discovered at Ringhals power station in the country's southwest. Police are investigating the possibility of sabotage.

Police said bomb sniffer dogs had detected the explosives during a routine check of Sweden's three atomic power plants on Wednesday. They were found attached to a truck in an industrial area within the Ringhals plant's perimeter, 70 kilometers (45 miles) south of Sweden's second-biggest city, Gothenburg.

Police spokesman Tommy Nyman said they were investigating but had no suspects. He said the driver of the truck had not been aware of the explosives and was not a suspect.

"An outsider has obviously placed [the explosives] on the truck," Nyman said. "We're talking to the truck driver and are trying to map out her movements within the premises throughout the day."



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 12:25:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Berlusconi fans anti-euro flames - FT.com

Suggestions by former prime minister Silvio Berlusconi that Italy could benefit from leaving the euro have been flatly rejected by the technocrat government that replaced him last November as well as business leaders.

Mr Berlusconi, whose centre-right party is the largest in parliament but has been hammered in local elections and opinion polls, said on Wednesday that if "Berlin keeps insisting on its negative positions . . . then it could happen that individual countries could return to their national currencies or that Germany would leave the euro."

Quitting the euro was "not a fanciful idea" or "blasphemy", Italian media quoted Mr Berlusconi as saying while attending a book presentation. Leaving the euro could lead to a "competitive" devaluation, the billionaire media tycoon said, claiming that some "German financial experts" he had spoken to were in agreement.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 12:25:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Phone hacking: Met refers files on four more journalists to CPS | UK news | guardian.co.uk

Scotland Yard has referred the files of four more journalists arrested on suspicion of phone hacking offences to the Crown Prosecution Service.

The CPS was passed the files for charging advice on Tuesday and is now considering the cases of 11 journalists arrested under the Metropolitan police's Operation Weeting investigation into alleged phone hacking at the News of the World.

Each of the four files referred to prosecutors on Tuesday relates to an individual journalist and is understood to be in connection with alleged voicemail interception, rather than other offences.

A spokesman for the CPS said: "We are not prepared to discuss the identities of those involved or the alleged offences in any greater detail at this stage as a number of related investigations are ongoing.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 12:26:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
had someone assure me that there would only be five files passed to the CPS before the Olympics, and then everything quietly dropped. My dubiousness did not translate well.

we're already at over double that and rumour has it there will be more next week.

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.

by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 09:01:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Point of Order : The word referring to the sporting event mentioned above is a wholly owned trademark of "Sue, Grabbit and Run", a subsidiary of the international Guild of Sharks and Profiteers. Judging by the amount of litigation in the UK regarding unlicensed use of this word, I think it advisable if this word is not used on ET until september.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 03:12:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
any approach by members of that guild should be dealt with according to Legal Precedent

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 05:43:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Excellent

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 10:03:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From the Transport Ministry's website.
settore TRASPORTI: SCIOPERO GENERALE SETTORE PUBBLICO E PRIVATO - ADESIONE SETTORE TRASPORTI

modalita: AEREO: 24 ORE; FERROVIARIO: DALLE 21.00 DEL 21/6 ALLE 21.00 DEL 22/6; TPL: 24 ORE CON MODALITA' LOCALI; MARITTIMO: 24 ORE CON DIVERSE MODALITA'

ESCLUSO REGIONE EMILIA ROMAGNA

We'll see what this means in practice. I'm not planning on going anywhere.
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 02:53:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Eurointelligence Daily Briefing: German president suspends ESM on orders from Constitutional Court
Joachim Gauck has bowed to pressure from the German Constitutional Court, and announced he will not sign off on the ESM and the fiscal pact for the time being; Court earlier announced that it expects the president to holds off his signature, as it requires more than a few hours to examine the case; Gauck acts under warning that an early signature might have produced a constitutional crisis; Wolfgang Schäuble criticised court for its intention to examine the ESM; ESM and fiscal pact are both now likely to be delayed beyond July 1; the Bundesbank said Monti's plan amounted to monetary financing; there is still confusion about the details about the Monti plan, but one official said it involved the ECB either directly, or indirectly; Monti said he will not request aid under any circumstance because Italy had "done its homework"; independent consultants put the worst case scenario recapitalisation requirement at €51bn to €62bn; there are huge differences of assumptions between the reports, despite the relatively narrow range of the likely recapitalisation requirement; the Spanish government says it has no intention to close down any bank; a more detailed report by a group of auditors is expected for September; yesterday's Spanish bond auction produce the highest yields since 1997; Claudi Perez says eurozone has 10 days to save the euro; ECB governing council decides to further loosen the collateral framework but there were dissenting votes; Cyprus considers to negotiate a bail-out, either from the EU, or Russia; Samaras presents his conservative government with Vassilis Rapanos as finance minister; Finland opposes extension of timeline for Greece; Rutte increasingly irritated by Merkel's call for `political union'; Euro crisis countries are catching up much faster than thought until now, an unpublished study shows; Willem Buiter, meanwhile, says the probability of a collapse of the eurozone has risen dramatically.


If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 06:05:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Cameron G20 missteps point to wider UK problems | Reuters

Accused of irritating France and Russia, frustrating the United States and falling into a testy exchange with Argentina over the Falklands, David Cameron's G20 summit didn't go well.

As he returns from Mexico, the British prime minister is probably hoping to put the series of apparent diplomatic missteps behind him, but it may not be that easy.



Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 06:30:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
An interesting discussion, but it confirmed an opinion that Cameron is something like George Bush Jr, still a Bullingdon Club juvenile at heart, who simply wades into international affairs with all the British Empire confidence of being able to lord it over Johnny Foreigner.

However, unlike George Bush, he no longer has an Empire so nbody has to suck up to him anymore. At least Blair had the common sense to always hide behind Bush so that everyone knew where the authority came from. Cameron seems to think he has gravitas just for being British PM.

But I found this disturbing later on;-

But if euro members use EU systems to pull together in ever greater union and financial regulation, they will probably want Britain to join them to avoid London's financial centre gaining a competitive advantage through lighter oversight.

No, no and NO !!! Form their own heavily regulated financial union and treat the city as a hostile offshore account and create trade barriers to prevent easy capital flight. Basically make the cost of operating out of London too expensive and let the City wither. The UK is a vast offshore haven that is damaging to the financial interests of the people of europe, if the UK govt haven't the will to bring it to heel, then Europe should.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 09:10:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Trade barriers? Maybe even capital controls?

You infidel...

Europe may be going in flames, but arbitrage opportunities for the robber barons are sacred.

by cagatacos on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 09:23:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You infidel...

******
*
* P R O U D *
*******

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 09:57:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Damn !! Shoulda done preview

-------------------
--- P R O U D ---
-------------------

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 10:00:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Eurointelligence syndicated column: Germany may face bankruptcy unless it accepts ECB debt monetisation (Charles Wyplosz, 21.06.2012)
German public opinion is highly concerned that German taxpayers could have to cover a portion of the public debts accumulated by spendthrift southern European countries. They are right, they should not, because we have a monetary, not a fiscal union. This is why the treaty includes a no-bailout clause. This clause, however, was transgressed in May 2010 with the first Greek bailout, and again with the creation of the EFSF to deal with the Irish crisis, and now with the ESM. Germany has championed all these missteps. The consequences are unavoidable.

Consider the emblematic case of Greece. Back then, it would have been easy to invoke the no-bailout clause and let Greece go to the IMF. The Fund would have provided temporary support and let Greece partially default. Back then, the public debt stood at 120% of  GDP (€ 239 billion). A 50% default would have been enough. The costs would have been borne largely by investors, including German banks. Instead, Germany and the other Euro Area countries imposed unrealistic fiscal austerity policies, which deepened and lengthened the recession, against loans. The debt to GDP ratio has massively increased. After having resisted for nearly two years, Germany arranged for a partial Greek default that has brought the Greek debt down to 150% of GDP, higher than before the crisis. Meanwhile, private bondholders have passed much of the debt to official institutions - the IMF and the ECB. The German government now holds its share of this debt, via the ECB and the collective loans. But the debt is still far too large.

He then argues that a greek default is unavoidable, whether in or out of the Eurozone
The real risk, then, is that a succession of defaults eventually bankrupts all Euro Area countries, including Germany. Debts of currently endangered countries represent about 200% of German GDP. What is to be done then to avoid a total European meltdown? The only possibility is spelled in three letters: ECB. The ECB is the only institution in the world that has deep enough pockets. It can issue a guarantee of all public debts or buy these debts, either through its SMP programme or on the secondary market. Of course, debt monetization is commonly seen as letting the inflation devil in the house. This is not so sure in the current circumstances. Assume that large amounts of debt are replaced by cash. The question is whether this cash will be used to support spending in the Euro Area, which is the way inflation could rise. Large scale spending is unlikely at this juncture. Eventually, when growth returns, the ECB can always drain cash by issuing its own debt instruments. The real inflation danger is that the ECB finances future deficits on an ongoing basis. This must be ruled out, hence the need to adopt, and if possible strengthen, the Fiscal Pact and to firmly re-instate the no-bailout rule. Of course, this all must be done fast, for the bill keeps rising any day that passes. The Leaders should stop wasting their times on small schemes that won't work. It is about time that they design the big picture and jump ahead of markets.


If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 06:30:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Column: This campaign is offensive - and flies in the face of the facts · TheJournal.ie

ABORTION IS ILLEGAL in Ireland, except (theoretically) where a woman is going to die as a result of her pregnancy. Even where there is a substantial risk the life of a pregnant woman and she needs an abortion, she must travel overseas to have an abortion.

The very well-funded anti-choice lobby has made sure that any moves towards amending the law, even in the most harrowing of cases for pregnant women, have been met with hysteria about the murder of the innocent unborn. It's no longer enough for them that women are forced to travel - now they are stepping up their sustained attack on women's rights to increase the shame and stigma levelled at women who have had, or want the right to have, abortions.

Over the past few weeks in Dublin, over 100 anti-choice billboards have sprung up, alongside 200 Luas ads, and freestanding advertisements. We are told that there are 100 Dublin Bus ads on the way. Some of the ads display an image of a torn ultrasound scan, others display a photo of a woman's face torn in half, with the slogan "Abortion tears her life apart."



Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 06:37:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
 ECONOMY & FINANCE 


Ad astra per aspera
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 03:10:58 AM EST
Eurozone debt crisis weighs on Germany - FT.com

The eurozone is stuck firmly in a sharp economic contraction, with the region's escalating debt crisis hitting Germany with increasing severity, according to a closely watched survey.

Purchasing managers' indices for the 17-country region showed private sector activity shrinking at the same pace as in May, which was the fastest in almost three years. But Germany's economy, which has so far saved the eurozone from recession, suffered a significant deterioration, especially in its manufacturing sector - indicating its exporters were being affected by gloomier global conditions.

"The downturn is gathering pace and spreading across the region," warned Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, which produces the survey. The latest results suggested companies were "preparing for conditions to worsen in the coming months, with the darker outlook often attributed to uncertainty caused by the region's ongoing economic and political crisis".

One bright spot, however, was an improvement in the French purchasing managers' indices - which suggested some of the gloom about eurozone prospects had been overdone.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 12:26:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What's that?

Germany economy soars as the virtue of being a sober export champion easily overcome the downsides of recession in the Eurozone?

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 07:42:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Spain's Banks Need Up to $78 Billion, Assessors' Report Says - Bloomberg

Spain's banks would need up to 62 billion euros ($78 billion) in capital to withstand a worst-case economic scenario, according to two consulting firms hired by the government to conduct stress tests on the lenders.

Oliver Wyman Ltd. estimated that the financial system would need between 51 billion euros and 62 billion euros should Spanish gross domestic product shrink by 6.5 percent and house prices fall as much as 60 percent from their peak. Roland Berger Strategy Consultants said banks would require 51.8 billion euros in that scenario.

Spain hired the two firms last month to estimate the capital shortfall at the nation's banks as investors questioned the health of lenders pummeled by a five-year real estate slump. Economy Minister Luis de Guindos has said Spain will use the results of the studies to determine how much money it might need to draw from the 100 billion euros made available by Europe after it requested funding to clean up banks.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 12:28:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Big Banks Brace for Credit Rating Downgrades - NYTimes.com

Moody's Investors Service has begun notifying some big banks that their credit ratings may get cut as early as this afternoon.

The calls started going on in the last hour or so, according to people briefed on the matter but not authorized to speak on the record. With ratings changes, Moody's typically reaches out to the banks a few hours before it publicly announces anything, giving them a chance to process the information.

Moody's, one of that nation's largest ratings agencies, announced in February that it would asses the credit of 17 global financial companies for potential downgrades, including Goldman Sachs and Bank of America. Morgan Stanley, which was hit hard in the financial crisis, could be the most vulnerable. The agency has warned it could cut the bank's ratings by three notches, leaving it two levels above junk and below some of its rivals.

Moody's did not respond to requests for comment. While Moody's has started notifying the banks for prepare for rating changes this afternoon, the timeline for the agency's actions is unclear.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 04:17:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
prepare for rating changes
Does preparing for a downgrade involve accelerating bonus payouts?
by Andhakari on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 03:15:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
All over the press this AM is Monti's threat to Merkel that if the ongoing crisis isn't solved (solved?) within weeks, there will speculation attacks on the Eurozone.

In simple terms that even a crazy horse could understand, under the current circumstances, what is a speculative attack?  Betting that the Euro sinks... and Zone export goods become cheaper? Betting that the Euro rises, meaning raw materials are cheaper?

Betting that major banks fail?

(I'm too focused elsewhere to understand this, not to mention my simple mind. Help, please.)

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 03:56:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Until one of our financial engineers weighs in on this, I'm assuming they mean what Soros and cohorts did to the UKies in 1992:

Black Wednesday - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The UK's prime minister and cabinet members tried vehemently to prop up a sinking pound and withdrawal from the monetary system the country had joined two years prior was the last resort. Major raised interest rates to 10 percent and authorised the spending of billions of pounds to buy up the sterling being frantically sold on the currency markets but the measures failed to prevent the pound falling lower than its minimum level in the ERM.

The Treasury took the decision to defend Sterling's position, believing that to devalue would be to promote inflation.[5] On 16 September the British government announced a rise in the base interest rate from an already high 10 to 12 percent in order to tempt speculators to buy pounds. Despite this and a promise later the same day to raise base rates again to 15 percent, dealers kept selling pounds, convinced that the government would not stick with its promise. By 19:00 that evening, Norman Lamont, then Chancellor, announced Britain would leave the ERM and rates would remain at the new level of 12 percent (however, on the next day interest rate was back on 10%). It was later revealed that the decision to withdraw had been agreed at an emergency meeting during the day between Norman Lamont, Prime Minister John Major, Foreign Secretary Douglas Hurd, President of the Board of Trade Michael Heseltine and Home Secretary Kenneth Clarke (the latter three all being strong pro-Europeans as well as senior Cabinet Ministers), and that the interest rate hike to 15 percent had only been a temporary measure to prevent a rout in the pound that afternoon.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 04:13:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Something like that, yes. Except that the run will be on the bonds of Eurozone member states, because they have been stupid enough to allow the markets to directly attack their interest rate, rather than attempting to attack it through their exchange rate.

There oughta be a rule that you may not short sell government bonds.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 04:20:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Wouldn't a determined buyer of last resort be preferable? As I understand it, that would achieve the same result by kicking the speculators where it hurts.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 04:54:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes.

Of course a determined buyer of first resort would be better still.

But neither of those is going to happen until someone smokes the gold bugs out of the BuBa's bedsheets.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 04:57:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bring back DDT.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sat Jun 23rd, 2012 at 05:57:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I saw an interview with Heseltine some years after this where he described what happened that day. He said that knowledge, expertise and advice about what was happening was so lacking that they were reduced to tuning a proortable radio to BBC for updates and responding according to that.

He laughed about it, and I could see the humour, but I was also reminded that the UK lost £27 billion that day, that is every man woman and child had £450 stolen from them, because those clowns didn't know what they were doing.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 05:48:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Presumably he means either a speculative attack on Italian bonds or a broad-front speculative attack on peripheral bonds.

But of course, the relevant translation is "Mario Monti has had his Niemöller moment." That he frames it in terms of forecasting market movements... well, Galbraith said it best: The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 04:15:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
OK, but now to simpleton level. Please explain the mechanics of a speculative attack on peripheral bonds. Who attacks by what measures? Since the ECB doesn't defend, who defends, using what measures?

Please remember you're speaking to a crazy horse who doesn't understand government bond mechanics...

or even why governments go to private capital at all.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 04:31:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
they bet they can drive interest rates higher?

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
by Crazy Horse on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 04:32:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Please explain the mechanics of a speculative attack on peripheral bonds. Who attacks by what measures?

Me and a couple of billionaire friends get together and sell a whole bunch of Italian government bonds that we don't have ("short" sell, in the finance theory jargon). We can do this, say, by writing a contract specifying that we will deliver them in three months but get paid a price agreed on today.

Since we have a couple of billions of seed capital dirty money in the project, we can probably short sell a couple of tens of billions worth of bonds.

This will cause the bond price to move down quite markedly, because it is a very great volume to transact on a normal day. When bond prices drop, the effective interest rate on the bonds rises.

Since Italy is widely perceived as one of the shaky members of the Eurozone, a lot of suckers will take the sudden, rapid movement of the secondary market rate as a signal that a run is in progress. And therefore will unload any Italian bonds they might have (and perhaps even short a bit).

A lot of punters unloading their long positions at the same time is called "a run." Yay for self-fulfilling expectations.

Now, the problem here is not that the suckers get rimmed. Suckers will be suckers, and they will find a way to lose their money. The problem is that at some point in the not so distant future, Italy will want to roll over or issue new bonds. And when that happens, Italy will have to go sell those bonds into a market full of spooked suckers who think Italy is toxic. So they will get to pay maybe 10 % annually for the privilege of using their own money.

Since the ECB doesn't defend, who defends, using what measures?

Nobody. The ECB does not want to defend, and the Italian government can't defend, since Italy actually is a shaky member of the Eurozone.

or even why governments go to private capital at all.

Relevant reading.

Money quote (bold mine):

Under a laissez-faire system the level of employment depends to a great extent on the so-called state of confidence.  If this deteriorates, private investment declines, which results in a fall of output and employment (both directly and through the secondary effect of the fall in incomes upon consumption and investment).  This gives the capitalists a powerful indirect control over government policy: everything which may shake the state of confidence must be carefully avoided because it would cause an economic crisis.  But once the government learns the trick of increasing employment by its own purchases, this powerful controlling device loses its effectiveness.  Hence budget deficits necessary to carry out government intervention must be regarded as perilous.  The social function of the doctrine of 'sound finance' is to make the level of employment dependent on the state of confidence.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 04:48:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, I forgot a minor point: How me and my billionaire friends make money off of this.

Once all the suckers are rushing out of Italian bonds, I go in and buy up all the bonds I need to deliver in three months according to the contract I signed way back in the beginning of the story. Since the bonds are now way cheaper than they were when I sold them (since was the first to I get out of the falling house of cards), this is basically free money for me and my billionaire friends.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 04:55:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Unfortunately, the problem with a Niemöller moment is that almost be definition they are not had until it's too late.

The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 04:57:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Too late for what? Too late to prevent a serious industrial depression in Italy? Yeah, probably.

But it might not be too late to prevent Italy from following Greece into the "failed state" bin.

And I keep holding out this naive hope that enough peripheral politicians will have Niemöller moments soon enough that this crisis will be stopped before it turns into a string of civil wars, fascist coups or a nuclear exchange.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 05:01:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
me too, how many countries saying 'nein' to germany will it take this time?

It's a fine line between homage, parody, and consumer opportunism. Jess Walter
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 06:43:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From Eurointelligence:
Bundesbank opposes Monti plan to let the ECB buy troubled Eurozone government bonds as an agent of the EFSF/ESM

According to Financial Times Deutschland the Bundesbank opposes plans by Mario Monti to cap spreads by tasking the ECB to buy government bonds as an agent of the EFSF/ESM. In return, according to the Italian prime minister's plans, the funds would partially guarantee against potential losses from the bond purchases. "This would be monetary financing and thus a break with the EU treaties", the paper quotes the Bundesbank. The German central bank argues that the motive for the bond purchases would not be monetary policy but rather fiscal policy because it would be about easing the burden of rising spreads for countries like Italy. At the G20 in Los Cabos, Monti had been understood to say that he wanted the EFSF/ESM to buy bonds of troubled Eurozone countries. But two high ranking Eurozone sources told FTD that the Italian prime minister pleaded for the ECB to do the job so that Italy or other beneficiaries of the operation would be burdened with the conditionality the EFSF/ESM would apply in such a case. "This will not fly", the paper quotes one source. "This is the attempt to get the money without accepting a program and the conditions attached to it." The proposal will be on the agenda today when Monti meets Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande and Mariano Rajoy today in Rome.

So Monti is asking for ECB debt monetization and there will be a meeting of Rajoy, Mont, Hollande and Merkel in Rome... Is this a united anti-auaterity front, or a Niemöller moment for Italy? Don't count on it.
Monti excludes any kind of rescue request by Italy

In an interview with Süddeutsche Zeitung ahead of today's meeting with Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande and Mariano Rajoy, Mario Monti categorically rejects the option of Italy asking for any rescue requests. "We will not request any aid because Italy will this year have a deficit of 2% of GDP according to the Commission's forcast", Monti said. "In the EU the deficit is 3.6%, in the Eurozone 3.2%, in the Netherlands it is 4.4%, in France 4.5%, in Germany only 0.9%. 2013 Italy will have a structural surplus of 0.6% and it will be the first country with a revenue surplus. If there is a country in the Eurozone that has done its homework and yet still has to pay such high interest rates then there is a problem. And that is a system from which we want that it consists or rewards and punishments", Monti said referring to the rising market spreads on Italian government bonds.

Yeah, homework. Now everyone (presumably including Monti) is pressuring Rajoy to accept a rescue for Spain even though Rajoy "did his homework".

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 06:55:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What Monti has done is admirable, in a sense :

  • We've balanced the budget. The markets are now supposed to sit up and beg.
  • The markets aren't impressed, because balancing the budget has plunged us into recession.
  • So what are we going to do now, wise guys?

Monetize the friggin' debt, or die.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 07:26:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not clear on why performing a full-scale, real-time experiment in depression economics on a captive test population is "admirable." It's not like this hadn't been settled science since 1931, or at the very latest 1937 for the terminally stupid.

It is like carrying out an experimental test of the miasma theory of tuberculosis infection in a prison. "Instructive," yes. But "admirable?"

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 09:15:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
or if they'll go back to the ugly designs of the 1990's notes.

Like to see Blaise Pascal back on the 500....having real people on the notes sure beats the doors and bridges to nowhere on the lame Euros...

All time best banknote in the world...Canada's $5 note. Kids playing hockey, what could be better than that?

I would be ashamed to admit that I had risen from the ranks. When I rise it will be with the ranks, and not from them Eugene Debs

by redstar on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 09:09:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Farepak collapse caused by bankers, says judge | Business | The Guardian

A high court judge has accused bankers of forcing the collapse of the Farepak Christmas savings club by sucking it dry of millions of pounds of savers' hard-earned cash.

The court heard that HBOS forced Farepak's directors to continue collecting savers' deposits - cash which the bankers derided as "Doris money" - when it was clear that the savings club was going to go bust.

"HBOS knew that those deposits would be paid ... and that the only beneficiary of those deposits would be HBOS," said Mr Justice Peter Smith.

The judge said that HBOS, which is now part of the bailed-out Lloyds Banking Group, did not break the law by taking £4m of savers' deposits when it was clear that Farepak was on the brink of collapse. But he added that the bank's behaviour "might not be regarded in the public's eyes as being acceptable".



Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 06:43:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is actually a big story. I don't think I have time to diary it, but it shows how one of the big banks actually pushed the ripping off of Farepak customers.

I'd argue the Directors of Farepak could have stood up to HBOS better, but at the same time, we should be clear that this is a strong example of how it is the banks that are destroying our society.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 07:54:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Is it any different from the widespread government-protected mortgage fraud we're seeing in the USA ?

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 10:01:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's only different in that mortgages in the USA were a particular kind of arms-length policy operation and this was much more direct and interactive abusive action.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 10:17:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
 WORLD 


Ad astra per aspera
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 03:11:11 AM EST
Drone strikes threaten 50 years of international law, says UN rapporteur | World news | guardian.co.uk

The US policy of using drone strikes to carry out targeted killings presents a major challenge to the system of international law that has endured since the second world war, a UN investigator has said.

Christof Heyns, the UN special rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions, fears that Barack Obama's CIA-run programmes in Pakistan, Yemen and elsewhere will encourage other states to flout long-established international human rights law.

In his strongest critique so far of drone strikes, Heyns suggested that some attacks may constitute war crimes.

Addressing the same meeting, organised by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), Pakistan's UN ambassador in Geneva, Zamir Akram, called for international legal action to halt the "totally counterproductive" US drone strikes in his country.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 12:26:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As far as I'm aware, the US is not signed up to any such treaties as they regard the entire world as their sphere of interest and reserve the right to act unilaterally anywhere and at any time.

You, me and anyone else might reasaonbly feel that such action should be illegal, that it broke all sorts of treaties and understandings about behaviour between nations. However, the US (and UK), as an Imperial power, feels obliged to act because these people are being defiant.

Defiance is the greatest crime because it is a challenge to our sovereignty, which cannot be allowed to endure. Hubris awaits

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 03:20:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
um, i think we passed that station a long time ago...

It's a fine line between homage, parody, and consumer opportunism. Jess Walter
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 06:46:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the series seems to be ...

  1. Greece-like - destroy the society and internal means of survival, leading to

  2. Egypt-like -  phony-baloney elections changing nothing, acting like  a release valve for civilian anger/frustration/ fears, leading to

  3. Syria -like - full blown "Annie get your gun"; this is the most hopeful phase that it might lead to the "end" of the bad guys, but most likely leading to

  4. Palestine-like - the world sits by as you're exterminated.

Oh, one more thing. It's not like the US citizens are behind all the bad shit. It's the US govt. fronting for the wealthy. These folks would just as soon kill a loudmouth asshole like me regardless of my citizenship.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wp4O7v5320
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 10:28:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Drones are ok for other countries, but not for the U.S.

concern is spreading. Another GOP freshman, Rep. Austin Scott, said he first learned of the issue when someone shouted out a question about drones at a Republican Party meeting in his Georgia district two months ago.

The level of apprehension is especially high in the conservative blogosphere, where headlines blare, "30,000 Armed Drones to be Used Against Americans" and "Government Drones Set to Spy on Farms in the United States." When Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell, a Republican, suggested during an interview on Washington radio station WTOP last month that drones be used by police since they've done such a good job on foreign battlefields, the political backlash was swift. NetRightDaily complained: "This seems like something a fascist would do. ... McDonnell isn't pro-Big Government, he is pro-HUGE Government."

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hIaExjZo_SJvCNR9gpYff3pSasDA?docId=b224ea8719ce4bb c9abec616653cad90

by asdf on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 11:20:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A quite extraordinary level of doublethink

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 11:57:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Pakistan PM nominee's arrest sought - Central & South Asia - Al Jazeera English

An anti-narcotics court judge in the northern city of Rawalpindi has issued an arrest warrant for the candidate nominated for the prime minister's post by President Asif Ali Zardari.

The judge on Thursday cited Makhdoom Shahabuddin's alleged role in a scandal involving the import of a drug that can be used to make methamphetamine.

Shahabuddin, a member of the ruling Pakistan People's Party (PPP), filed his nomination papers on Thursday. Two other PPP leaders, Raja Pervez Ashraf and Qamar Zaman Kaira, also filed their nomination papers as alternative candidates.

Asked about the reported arrest warrant after he filed his papers, Shahabuddin said he was not afraid of "hostile winds".



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 04:14:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Syrian pilot defects after landing in Jordan - Middle East - Al Jazeera English

A Syrian pilot has been granted political asylum after landing his MiG fighter jet in neighbouring Jordan, in the first such defection during a revolt that activists say has left more than 15,000 people dead.

"The council of ministers has decided to grant the pilot, Colonel Hassan Merei al-Hamade, political asylum," Jordanian Information Minister Samih Maaytah told the AFP news agency after a government official said the Russian MiG-21 had made an emergency landing at a base in Mafraq near the border.

Syria's state television said the warplane was flying near the border on Wednesday when contact was lost at 07:34 GMT, with Jordan saying it had crossed the frontier minutes later.

The opposition Syrian National Council said: "The plane took off at high speed and flew at low altitude from a military base between Deraa and Sweida in the south of the country... to avoid detection by radar.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 04:14:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Uruguay plans to legalise marijuana sale - Americas - Al Jazeera English

Uruguay is set to introduce legislation allowing the state to sell and distribute marijuana, a first in Latin America.

The measure was one of 15 measures to fight crime presented by President Jose Mujica's administration.

The goal was for "strict state control over the distribution and production" of cannabis, said Defence Minister Eleuterio Fernandez Huidobro.

The government will also urge that marijuana sales be legalised worldwide, Huidobro said, adding the measure could discourage the use of so-called hard drugs.

Marijuana consumption is already legal in Uruguay



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 04:16:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
American backed Coup in Uruguay in 5, 4, 3....

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 03:20:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
MercoPress: The Paraguayan Senate has summoned President Fernando Lugo for Friday midday to commence the political impeachment process which was voted almost unanimously in the Lower House (76 to 1) and will decide on his future.
Related item.

Tim's El Salvador Blog: Tuesday marked the 100th day of the truce between El Salvador's gangs which has dramatically dropped the homicide rate in the country.   The gangs spoke about the future of the truce yesterday reports the AP...

Colombia Reports: Raul Sossa, President of Sintramienergetica, Colombia's national trade union for mining and energy workers, died in a car accident Thursday, according to local media.

LAHT, BOGOTA - Strife-torn Colombia is the scene of the worst humanitarian tragedy in Latin America with nearly 400,000 refugees and 4 million people internally displaced, according to the U.N.'s refugee agency.


"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 11:05:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 03:11:29 AM EST
The Great Olympic Greenwash - People & Power - Al Jazeera English


In April of this year, while the 2012 Olympics test events were continuing apace in the pools and stadiums of London, I was with a documentary film crew in Salt Lake City, Utah - driving up, and into, one of the largest open-pit mines in the world. With the mercury rising to record levels in this arid corner of the western US, a trip to the Kennecott Copper Mine was less a visitor's tour than it was a fact-finding mission.

This year's medals, the largest and heaviest in Olympic history, will be made almost entirely from the raw materials extracted and smelted at the Kennecott Copper Mine, owned by Anglo-Australian mining giant Rio Tinto. But now this mine is also at the centre of a federal lawsuit in the Utah courts, where Rio Tinto Kennecott stands accused of violating the US Clean Air Act for over five years.

Stretching 3.22km wide and 1.2km deep, the Kennecott mining operation, generating one quarter of all US copper, as well as a portion of its gold, silver and molybdenum, has never been too far from controversy. Its size has much to do with it: producing more copper than any other mine in history, it is said to be the largest man-made hole on the planet. But the vast amount of waste generated as a result of the mine has made it the single largest industrial polluter in the Salt Lake City basin, contributing a hefty amount to the region's total overall pollution.

Now a coalition of environmental, health and advocacy groups have said Rio Tinto are endangering the health of Salt Lake City citizens by flouting emission standards set by the federal Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The coalition alleges that the totality of Rio Tinto's operations in Utah are contributing to making Salt Lake City one of the worst cities in the country for acute air pollution. Rio Tinto maintains it has received permission to expand its operations with all the necessary approvals from the state of Utah.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 04:13:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Are Fracking Wastewater Wells Poisoning the Ground beneath Our Feet?: Scientific American

Over the past several decades, U.S. industries have injected more than 30 trillion gallons of toxic liquid deep into the earth, using broad expanses of the nation's geology as an invisible dumping ground.

No company would be allowed to pour such dangerous chemicals into the rivers or onto the soil. But until recently, scientists and environmental officials have assumed that deep layers of rock beneath the earth would safely entomb the waste for millennia.

There are growing signs they were mistaken.

Records from disparate corners of the United States show that wells drilled to bury this waste deep beneath the ground have repeatedly leaked, sending dangerous chemicals and waste gurgling to the surface or, on occasion, seeping into shallow aquifers that store a significant portion of the nation's drinking water.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 04:25:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Fat Humans Are The Equivalent Of An Extra Half Billion People On Earth | Co.Exist: World changing ideas and innovation

Obesity isn't just bad for individual health--or even the larger health care systems--it's also a strain on the planet. A recent report from the British Medical Council looks at the effect of increased global fatness on world food energy demands--and finds that all those extra pounds could require as much food energy as another half billion people. This in turn could cause food prices to rise. The U.S., of course, is responsible for the bulk of the problem.

The researchers used existing data on body mass index (BMI) and height distribution to estimate average adult body mass, with total biomass calculated as the product of average body mass and population size. They then estimated the percentage of the population of major countries that are overweight or obese, as well as their average body mass. What they found is disturbing: in 2005, the global adult human biomass was about 287 million tons, 15 million of which can be traced back to overweight people, and 3.5 million of which are the result of obesity.

Not all of this extra biomass is distributed equally. North America has just 6% of the planet's population, but 34% of its biomass comes from obesity. For some perspective, Asia has 61% of the world's population and just 13% of biomass from obesity.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 04:26:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 03:11:43 AM EST
Deadly Bird Flu May Be Five Steps From Pandemic, Study Finds - Bloomberg

Five genetic tweaks made a deadly strain of bird flu that can infect humans spread more easily, according to a study that the U.S. government had first sought to censor on concerns it could be used by bioterrorists.

The genetic changes made the H5N1 virus airborne among ferrets, the mammals whose response to flu is most like that of humans, researchers from the Netherlands wrote in the journal Science today. The likelihood of those changes occurring naturally is difficult to estimate but there is "no fundamental hurdle to that happening," said Derek Smith, a University of Cambridge researcher who led a second study.

Government workers cull chickens at the Cheung Sha Wan wholesale market in Hong Kong. Photographer: Paul Hilton/Bloomberg

"We now know that we're living on a fault line," Smith said on a conference call with reporters yesterday. "It's an active fault line, it really could do something, and now what we need to know is, how likely is that?"



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 04:17:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Cuts leave Greek heritage in ruins : Nature News & Comment

The economic and political turmoil in Greece is not just jeopardizing the country's economic future, it is also having a devastating effect on the country's rich cultural past, according to archaeologists in Athens.

Last month, the Association of Greek Archaeologists warned that the economic policies dictated by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund would cause "the destruction of both our country and our cultural heritage". The austerity measures intended to cut government debt have forced the state archaeological service to slash staff numbers by more than 10%, with a further 35-50% reduction possible. Research and excavations are being abandoned. Museums that can no longer afford to pay for security are being plagued by armed robbers. And organized criminals are exploiting the chaos in an explosion of illegal digs and the trafficking of illicitly procured antiquities.

Despina Koutsoumba, president of the archaeologists' association, says that the government no longer funds new research projects -- other than those involving foreign partners to whom they are contractually obliged.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 04:23:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Stagnating life expectancies in United States: Poorer U.S. citizens live five years less than the affluent

ScienceDaily (June 21, 2012) -- Despite modest gains in lifespan over the past century, the United States still trails many of the world's countries when it comes to life expectancy, and its poorest citizens live approximately five years less than more affluent persons, according to a new study from Rice University and the University Colorado at Boulder.

The study, "Stagnating Life Expectancies and Future Prospects in an Age of Uncertainty," used time-series analysis to evaluate historical data on U.S. mortality from the Human Mortality Database. The study authors reviewed data from 1930 through 2000 to identify trends in mortality over time and forecast life expectancy to the year 2055. Their research will be published in an upcoming issue of Social Science Quarterly.

Although the researchers found that the U.S. can expect very moderate gains in coming years (less than an additional three years through 2055), the U.S. still trails its developed counterparts in life expectancy. For example, the average life expectancy in the U.S. for a person born today is is 78.49, which is significantly lower than people born in Monaco, Macau and Japan, which have the three highest life expectancies (89.68, 84.43 and 83.91 years, respectively). In addition, the most deprived U.S. citizens tend to live five years less than their more affluent countrymen, according to Justin Denney, Rice assistant professor of sociology, who was principal author for the study.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 04:29:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Proximity of new planets stuns even astronomers

ScienceDaily (June 21, 2012) -- One is a rocky planet 1.5 times the size of Earth. The other is a gaseous world nearly four times Earth's size. Together they form a spectacular system in which two planets orbit closer to each other than any yet discovered.

"We've never known of planets like this," said Yale University astronomer Sarbani Basu, a member of the research team that analyzed the system. "If you were on the smaller planet looking up, the larger planet would seem more than twice the size of Earth's full moon. It would be jaw-dropping."

Basu's research focused on determining the properties of the planets' host star -- work that was essential for discerning the characteristics of the orbiting planets.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 04:29:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I find articles like this immensely amusing.  When younger, I was surrounded by a bunch of know-it-all science majors who tremendously enjoyed "that's just not possible, scientifically speaking" to a whole variety of vague SF speculations.  One topic I remember was extra-solar planets, and from my vague memories of the past, it seemed like anything that was not exactly like what existed in our solar system was simply impossible.  Or, that what was just observed by these researchers was simply impossible.

Now, "we don't know" is fine.  "We can't see that" is fine.  "Given what we know of planetary geophysics, that doesn't seem likely" is fine.  Those are solid scientific answers.  "Probably not," even, is defensible.  But the smug certainty of my science-y friends when responding to vague speculations always rubbed me wrong.  

They were young, and are better now.  But I suspect a lot of people are seriously turned off to science by exactly that sort of smug, superior attitude to speculation both informed and uninformed.  I understand that not everyone has the time, energy, or desire to respond to uninformed speculation in a welcoming but educational manner.  However, letting it go without comment is a heck of a lot better than dismissive contempt.

by Zwackus on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 06:01:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah yes, I remember an astronomy B Sc once telling me that Authur C Clarke didn't know shit about orbital dynamics and that the Fountains of Paradise was impossible..."impossible I tell you and you are a fool for not having thrown the book away"

It was a good story tho'

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Jun 22nd, 2012 at 09:55:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
 PEOPLE AND KLATSCH 


Ad astra per aspera
by In Wales (inwales aaat eurotrib.com) on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 03:11:58 AM EST
1978 - birth of Gordon Moakes, English musician (Bloc Party)

A little low-fi post-punk to ease us into our weekend.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Thu Jun 21st, 2012 at 04:35:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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