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Monday Open Thread

by afew Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 12:12:58 PM EST

Here goes


Display:
Time to talk.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 12:13:18 PM EST
Comment is Free: The graduates of 2012 will survive only in the cracks of our economy (Paul Mason, 1 July 2012)
In grasping the basic inequity of the situation, students themselves were ahead of the journalists and commentators. As early as 2009 students in the self-designated "Research and Destroy" collective at the University of California, Santa Cruz, issued their famous "Communique from an absent future": "'Work hard, play hard' has been the over-eager motto of a generation in training for ... what? - drawing hearts in cappuccino foam ... We work and we borrow in order to work and to borrow. And the jobs we work toward are the jobs we already have. What our borrowed tuition buys is the privilege of making monthly payments for the rest of our lives."

...

As I've toured universities, squats and occupation camps to talk about the roots of the crisis there have been times when I've had to say: "The term graduate without a future does not mean you literally have no future." Because the prevalent psychology among young people has become dangerously nihilistic, even for the activists.

...

As the years have ticked by - with the freshmen of the Lehman Brothers year now into their second year as postgrads, or second year on the dole - the realisation has dawned on the graduate without a future: you have to make the future yourself. And if you look hard enough - look past the unkempt beards and the party-smeared mascara - they are having a pretty good go at it.



If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 12:23:53 PM EST
A very good article, even if I think he was trying very hard to find a positive sounding ending

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 12:26:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's embarrassing to say this to a generation where individual tuition has become a privilege; where non-examinable knowledge is perceived as a waste of time; where every thesis and dissertation must begin with a mind-numbing rehash of existing knowledge, written to a formula as rigid as that demanded by the Qing-era Chinese civil service. But here goes: the past was better.

This struck a chord with me.

Admittedly, particularly because I'm about to do some research work again, so it's re-hash time...

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 03:10:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Remember: the worth of the research paper is directly proportional to the length of the bibliography.  Reading the works cited is not necessary, although it's nice.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 04:30:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm most encouraged by kids who want to go into the healthcare areas ... Med School, Nursing School, etc. and dissuade people from "science". For science Grad students I recommend "finding" their own business while having access to a university's research resources, and don't depend upon getting a job upon graduation.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wp4O7v5320
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 04:03:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Next: You will not achieve what your mediocre fathers did.

by das monde on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 10:30:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Okay, the first minute was crap so I tuned out.

Here's a commencement speech worth listening to and which also features struggling, penniless youths.



If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jul 3rd, 2012 at 04:23:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the first minute was crap so I tuned out.

More fun starts with 1:40, 2:28, and main riff from 3:00. What he tells is rather true - but eventually exactly what these grads need to hear to accept soon the fate of suckers working for welfare of their creditors, too busy to bother "specials". That is storytelling for our times. What he won't tell is that they moms and dads were just as unspecial, around No 7000 in the world in whatever they do, but nevertheless, most of the same moms and dads could integrate the cosinus function, distinguish acids and alkaline bases, go to rock or classical concerts without extensive part-time work, take home leans with less "responsibility" worries.

Anyway, here is a condensed version of his talk:

by das monde on Tue Jul 3rd, 2012 at 11:43:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A new report written by professors from our faculty for the comptroller's office:
Government corruption in Puerto Rico has reached the point where employers admit that in recent decades has become a game of routine separate budgets to ensure their contracts with the government and are willing to pay officials good slice of the profits of these contracts if the favor.


"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 12:29:04 PM EST
Sorry, didn't have time to correct the Google translator.  I hope you get the picture.  By the way employers = firms.

"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 12:31:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I can't help but wonder if we're at the "revelation that the phone of Milly Dowler was hacked after she died, confusing the police investigation" stage with regard to bankers.

That point where a vague disquiet about the behaviour of a certain group of people goes from being a minority concern to being a societal disgust. I have just felt listening to conversations and reading around that the whole nature of the debate is now on a different ground: Its no longer "should we do something about the banks..?" and has moved on to "what shall we do about the banks?"

Nobody seems to understand why there are no bnkers in handcuffs when it is quite plain that a fraud has taken place. Politicians who try to hide their inaction behind banking rules may find themselves swept away; people want these guys to get prison, not a pension.

vince Cable must be haivng the time of his life right now, he's going around talking about breaking up banks nd he's being taken seriously and being regarded as "The Man with the Plan". If he plays his cards right he might even ride the wave of public revulsion into an unstoppable force for legislation within the year.

But they've got to keep the drip feed of new debaucheries coming or the publicwill move on to new candy. suddenly the upcoming party conferences look very interesting. Labour may have to do a very public renunciation of Blairism in order to gain credibility on the subject, at which point things will get very fun very quickly

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 12:44:00 PM EST
Vince Cable, the guy who was thrown off the coalition government for saying he wanted to take on Murdoch, the guy who's the butt of public revulsion over the phone wiretapping scandal, happens to be on the right side of the banking scandal, too?

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 12:50:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yea, the politician the public trusts. Kinda like The Highlnder; in each generation there can only be one

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 01:01:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I found this statement on Question Time by Tony Robinson quite an interesting one, in terms of the culture shift:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-18642323

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 01:03:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Though he ends with, "they dragged us into this situation, it's about time THEY started getting us out."

Perhaps he meant WE.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 01:10:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe he needs to get a copy of L Randall Wray's new book on Modern Money Theory: A Primer on Macroeconomics for Sovereign Monetary Systems, especially since he's in the Labour Party executive.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 02:48:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You have to remember he is a current member of Labours National Executive, so you'd expect a certain leftish perspective delivered with populist humour.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 01:14:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Right - but even a year ago you would have gotten a much bigger backlash against someone saying "it's almost like they're not human"...

The lack of reaction says to me that (for now) the mood has really turned...

Of course, it may not last...

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 01:38:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Whoa.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 02:45:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Labour may have to do a very public renunciation of Blairism

This doesn't seem even slightly plausible.

Sadly, I think it's more likely Labour will discover a sudden hard-line attitude towards immigrants and 'dole scroungers.'

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 03:08:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think that was tried during the dying fag end of the Brown error era.

They have to try something else

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 04:09:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Considering recent historical experience, that does not necessarily mean that they actually will try something else.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 04:23:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They can pretend to do something else and claim they're doing something else ... without actually doing something else.

Blairites got that one down to a T.


Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 04:31:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Labour may have to do a very public renunciation of Blairism in order to gain credibility on the subject, at which point things will get very fun very quickly

Perhaps it will take a political realignment. Is there any skeleton or framework upon which such a realignment could emerge. Surely the TUC element of Labor must be thoroughly disgusted by Blairism. They have troops on the ground for elections. Who else might join an anti-Austerity, left led alternative to The Labour Party with the added component of a 'heads on spikes' movement for City bankers? Is there any prospect of significant funding for such a new party?

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 03:49:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, this has started with an outspoken denunciation of the influence which the blairite think tank, Progress, has on party policy. Several influential unions started speaking against it about a couple of months ago, even if they've stepped back ffrom calls for disaffiliation.

But the LIBOR situation will only weaken all the right wing leeches sucking the party, I think Balls will find himself under great pressure to renounce everything he thought was true in order to allow Labour to ride the wave. It would show political opportunism of the sort even Mr Tony could admire

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 04:24:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Paul Mason: The strange silence and an absence of information
But this may be remedied on Wednesday if a committee of MPs gets better answers than Newsnight is getting about emails alleged to exist between a Bank of England boss and the boss of Barclays.

...

As Barclays struggled to avoid being forced to take bailout money from the UK government, on 29 October 2008: "A senior Bank of England official contacted a senior Barclays manager... As the substance of the conversation was passed to other Barclays employees, certain Barclays managers formed the understanding that they had been instructed by the Bank of England to lower Barclays' Libor submissions, and instructed the Barclays Dollar and Sterling Libor submitters to do so - even though that was not the understanding of the senior Barclays individual who had the call with the Bank of England official."

...

Thus, the official picture drawn by the FSA is that the Bank of England did not instruct Barclays to fiddle the rate, and that Bob Diamond "did not understand" that he had been so instructed.



If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 06:10:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Monbiot.com: False Summit (July 2, 2012)
Some of us made vague predictions, others were more specific. In all cases we were wrong. In 1975 MK Hubbert, a geoscientist working for Shell who had correctly predicted the decline in US oil production, suggested that global supplies could peak in 1995(1). In 1997 the petroleum geologist Colin Campbell estimated that it would happen before 2010(2). In 2003 the geophysicist Kenneth Deffeyes said he was "99 per cent confident" that peak oil would occur in 2004(3). In 2004, the Texas tycoon T. Boone Pickens predicted that "never again will we pump more than 82 million barrels" per day of liquid fuels(4). (Average daily supply in May 2012 was 91 million(5)). In 2005, the investment banker Matthew Simmons maintained that "Saudi Arabia ... cannot materially grow its oil production."(6) (Since then its output has risen from 9 million barrels a day to 10, and it has another 1.5 million in spare capacity(7,8)).

Peak oil hasn't happened, and it's unlikely to happen for a very long time. A report by the oil executive Leonardo Maugeri, published by Harvard University, provides compelling evidence that a new oil boom has begun(9). The constraints on oil supply over the past ten years appear to have had more to do with money than geology. The low prices before 2003 had discouraged investors from developing difficult fields. The high prices of the past few years have changed that.

Maugeri's analysis of projects in 23 countries suggests that global oil supplies are likely to rise by a net 17m barrels per day (to 110m) by 2020. This, he says, is "the largest potential addition to the world's oil supply capacity since the 1980s." The investments required to make this boom happen depend on a long-term price of $70 a barrel. The current cost of Brent crude is $95(10). Money is now flooding into new oil: a trillion dollars was spent over the past two years, a record $600bn is lined up for 2012(11).

See also: The last ASPO conference by Luis de Sousa on June 5th, 2012
In more than one presentation the figure of 100 Mb/d for oil production in 2020 was put forth. The same old discourse sides these forecasts: technological development is unlocking new reserves, as long as the capital and the investment are there production can continue growing, or at least remain at present levels. This provided, of course, the incentive from high oil prices.

Strikingly this is the same rhetoric underlying the renewable energy optimistic thinking: as long as oil prices remain high and the capital is there, the infrastructure can expand to cover the gap left by declining fossil fuel production. Maybe even to support further economic growth. This is all supposed to happen within the current economic framework, in just a few years and without feed-in tariffs.

...

Many of us question ourselves what future ASPO can have in the present setting. It can either remain a loose scientific organisation or push a more political structure to lobby on the institutions that have the means to act. I don't think ASPO should take the latter path, but more than that, it seems that it is presently unable to do so. Is there place for ASPO after the peak? This is the question many of us are facing.

Who's right?

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 03:58:41 PM EST
One should note that the sort of stuff that used to be called "oil" back in the days when most of those predictions were made did peak in the mid-00s. The stuff that comes on line now used to be called "tar" and "asphalt."

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 04:26:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You can empty a pint pot drip by drip or all at once, but it's still only a pint.

There are technical fixes which can stretch the life of an oil field while drilling more holes in order to exhaust it more quickly. the net result of which is that you maintain the status quo a little while longer.

But they ain't making any more oil and there have been no significant, ie game changing, fields discovered since the North sea. Sure you can extract oil in the Gulf of Mexico, in the north of alaska or off spitzbergen, for a few months or a few years. But when the middle East is sucked dry in a decade or so, nothing short of a miracle is gonna save the 20th century

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 04:34:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's possible to make oil from coal.  If the price/bbl rises high enough companies will do it.  

Also, wasn't Hubbert specific wrt definitions?  IRRC under those he is still correct.

But I'm no expert.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 04:38:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Chron.com: Nation's energy transportation getting a revamp (July 2, 2012)
Across North America, pipelines and rail terminals are being built in areas where wells were once scarce. Companies are reversing pipe flows and adding stronger pumps to funnel more crude through their lines.

...

Historically, fossil fuels flowed north, from oil fields in Texas toward the nation's big cities. But energy producers have charged into new areas with technology that can reach oil and natural gas trapped in shale and other tight rock formations.

Pipelines haven't moved as quickly as drilling rigs, leaving pools of crude and gas stranded far from the Gulf Coast refineries and petrochemical plants that need them.



If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 05:17:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Doesnt matter - There is no way the bulk of oil consumption doesnt get ambushed by superior battery technology long before the problem arises. Consumer electronics are directing mindnumbing amounts of cash into battery RnD, and once the preformance passes a certain point, the combusion engine becomes obsolete overnight.
as an example, then unless I fucked up my math very badly, then never mind cars, you can fly propeller driven planes with Lithium-Air batteries. Across the atlantic.
by Thomas on Tue Jul 3rd, 2012 at 03:25:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, but a new idea has to  be considerably cheaper to flush away an established technology. Wind and hydro have not displaced nuclear and coal. Neither does RnD money guarantee results quickly fusion is still, and probably always will be, 50 years away from commercial reality

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Jul 3rd, 2012 at 03:46:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Battery tech is not like fusion, tough. Progress is incremental engineering not knocking against any fundamental limits, and with profits to be made at every step along the curve of improvement.  This is the kind of thing where progress can be relied upon to happen, and money spent has returns. The exact steepness of the curve of improvement is uncertain, but it is there, and it isnt going to stop before obsoleting combustion engines, because known chemistries suffice for that. The question is really more by how much the combustion engine ends up being obsoleted, and how soon.
And electricity is a heck of a lot cheaper than oil.
by Thomas on Tue Jul 3rd, 2012 at 05:45:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Wind and hydro have not displaced nuclear and coal.

How much wind has been built over the past 15 years in the West, and how much nuclear and coal? (Hint: lots and none) Sure, you have legacy plants, but as we see in a number of countries, they are slowly being decommissioned and not replaced.

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Tue Jul 3rd, 2012 at 01:15:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Holy.

Cow

The Venn diagram is the Algebra 1 of data visualization and no, this is not how they work.

Approximately 47% of US voters will cast their ballot for this doofus.

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 04:48:09 PM EST
More republican maths

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 05:06:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nature: Physicists find new particle, but is it the Higgs?: LHC data confirm discovery, but not identity, of Higgs-like entity. (02 July 2012)
Even as rumours fly in the popular media, physicists have begun quietly cheering at CERN, the European particle-physics lab near Geneva in Switzerland. "Without a doubt, we have a discovery," says one member of the team working on the ATLAS experiment, who wished to remain anonymous. "It is pure elation!"

...

Physicists working on ATLAS saw hints of a Higgs particle last year (see: 'Detectors home in on Higgs boson'), but the first solid results from the full 2012 data set arrived last week. The signal was seen in the decay of a Higgs-like particle into two high-energy photons -- one of the cleanest ways to glimpse a Higgs among the hundreds of trillions proton-proton collisions recorded in the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). The data contained "a significant excess" of collision events at a mass of around 125 gigaelectronvolts, the ATLAS researcher told Nature, which is the same value suggested by last year's data. The same signal is present in other Higgs decay channels, too, such as those in which the new Higgs-like particle decays into four leptons.

...

"Fine, there is something there -- a resonance," says Martinus Veltman, emeritus professor at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor, who shared the 1999 Nobel Prize in Physics for his work on the standard model. "Now we have to find out if it has all the properties that the Higgs is supposed to have."



If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 2nd, 2012 at 05:31:28 PM EST
More cynically, they need to hope really hard that they have found a not-Higgs, because if they find the Higgs and nothing else it will be decades before they get a new toy.

Of course in the current political environment, it may well be decades before they get a new toy anyway.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Jul 3rd, 2012 at 04:39:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Confessions of an immigrant: Knowledge of Life in the UK | Independent
Yet despite the Home Office's obsession with language qualifications, each official I have come into personal contact with in this process - the test staff, the council official who checked my form, the Home Office call centre staff, the officers presiding over my naturalisation ceremony - all demonstrated a striking difficulty in structuring a grammatical English sentence, making the whole exercise descend into farce. I remember being asked, `Is you here for the English test?' and `Was you able to pass an English test, and can you talk proper?' without a trace of irony.

The test takes the form of 20 multiple-choice questions, which one can only revise for by buying the official Life in the UK handbook from the Home Office (RRP £9.99) and the accompanying revision guide (RRP £5.99). One cannot simply take the test using common sense, because the Life in the UK book is so riddled with factual errors that if I were to give the correct answers, I would fail the test. I could only pass the test by memorising erroneous material.

From the Life in the UK handbook I learned many new and interesting things. Apparently, Magna Carta was signed in 1316, some 101 years later than is commonly thought, and Hitler invaded Russia in 1942 - which must have come as a shock to those Russians fighting the invading Wehrmacht in the summer of 1941. Being a political historian, I naturally homed in on the fact that every single description of who was allowed to vote at various times in British history was comically wrong. Had it been an essay I was marking for my students, I would have given it a Fail.


by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Tue Jul 3rd, 2012 at 09:28:54 AM EST
Compare: Getting my U.S. citizenship by marco on April 28th, 2006.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jul 3rd, 2012 at 10:51:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Look, I've said it repeatedly : If you can't take a joke, don't come here. The country's shit, we know that.

We've tried modernisation and trendy improvements and people in white coats talking about energy too cheap to meter. Well, frankly, it's all lies; nothing gets better but somebody well connected just gets a bit richer. So, all in all, we're quite happy as we are. If you don't mind the inconvenience, you're welcome and mine's a pint. If you expect a properly run country, I think you'll find europe is next door. they'll have something more suitable. The exit's over there.

That said, it reads about right, with more or less the appropriate mix of outrage and mockery.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Jul 3rd, 2012 at 12:54:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Interestingly, they still seem to like the country. When entering the U.K., I've been asked several times if I'm planning to move back soon, as though living elsewhere is somthing unnatural for a Brit. This never happens when entering the US or Israel.

I won't be able to tell if the same thing happens in Italy, even when I can my passport. I'm getting close to applying having just got my criminal record reports from the U.S (about a month, $30 and fingprints), Germany (a week, a few Euros and a notarized signature) and Belgium (a letter in French, written by one of you, and no fee. Arrived in 3 days). Next to legalize the US one, get them all translated, and then go to Rome to order my Israeli one. With that I can submit my application (no exam, fee around 30 Euros compared with 851 pounds for the UK).

by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Tue Jul 3rd, 2012 at 04:40:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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