Welcome to the new version of European Tribune. It's just a new layout, so everything should work as before - please report bugs here.

The Eurozone's sovereign has spoken

by Migeru Sat Jul 21st, 2012 at 04:39:00 PM EST

ECB: Interview with Mario Draghi, President of the ECB (Le Monde, 18 July 2012, published 21 July 2012)

Should the ECB not do more to ease the economy, as the IMF has requested?

We are very open. We do not have any taboos. We decided to reduce interest rates to below 1% in July because we forecast that inflation would be close to or below 2% at the start of 2013. It now seems likely that it will fall sooner than expected, at the end of 2012. Our mandate is to maintain price stability in order to prevent both higher inflation and a generalised, broadly based fall in prices. If we see such risks of deflation, we will act.

...

These are long-term solutions. Doesn’t something need to be done about the urgency of the situation?

Let me tell you about my experience. In 1988 the Delors Committee set out the route towards Monetary Union, with a goal, a timetable and commitments to be respected. This prospect resulted in the Maastricht Treaty in 1992. Italy’s borrowing rates were very high at the time. But as a result of its involvement in the project of Monetary Union, Italy saw an abrupt fall in its rates, before there was even a decrease in the deficit, which stood at 11% of GDP! This leads me to believe that if countries make firm commitments, even of a long-term nature, this has an impact in the short term.

The ECB has been criticised for not doing more for the governments. Is the ECB waiting for government efforts to be made before acting?

This idea that there is bargaining between the governments and the ECB is a “quiproquo”. Our mandate is not to resolve the financial problems of countries, but to ensure price stability and to contribute to the stability of the financial system in full independence.

Yeah, because private banks are part of the financial system and they need to be supported because their bankruptcies are systemically destabilizing events... whereas state bankruptcies are not systemically destabilizing and so treasuries need not be supported like banks.

It may sound insane, but that's in fact what's written in the Maastricht Treaty.


However, Draghi also says this:
On Friday, 20 July, the finance ministers of the euro area should have completed the aid plan for banks. Have they done so? Will it suffice to prevent the country from defaulting?

One important point is the involvement of senior creditors of banks: the ECB believes that such involvement should be possible in the case of the liquidation of a bank. Savers must be protected, but creditors should be part of the solution of the crisis. It is a matter of limiting the involvement of taxpayers. They have already paid a great deal!

So, another interpretation of Draghi's words is that governments should govern and they should restructure the financial sector forcefully and impose creditor bail-ins, something they have refused to do. The ECB is evidently neither the fiscal authority nor the banking supervisor, therefore it's about time governments did their job. Maybe then they wouldn't need to wish that the ECB solves their problems.
Display:
The publication of this interview has caused quite a stir in Spain because yesterday the Spanish Foreign minister lashed out at the ECB calling it a "clandestine Central Bank" and saying it was not doing its job. The Spanish Press is seeing Draghi's interview as a reply to Spain's minister, despite the fact that the interview was conducted two days prior.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jul 21st, 2012 at 04:46:31 PM EST
Publico.es: El PP alerta de una conspiración europea contra España (22/07/2012)
González Pons implora a la institución que preside Mario Draghi a que actúe ya: "Si el BCE quiere, esto se acaba el lunes. Y si no se acaba el lunes, es porque el BCE no quiere". Sugiere que Alemania es la que quiere que España no pertenezca "al mismo club que los países del norte de Europa"
[Spain's] PP warns of a European conspiracy against Spain (22/07/2012)
González Pons begs the institution chaired by Mario Draghi to act already: "If the ECB wants, this ends on Monday. And if it doesn't end on Monday, it's because the ECB doesn't want it to". He suggests that Germany is the one that doesn't want Spain in "the same club as the countries of Northern Europe"


If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jul 22nd, 2012 at 08:07:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Now recall what the PP was saying when they got to power:
ElPais.com: Rajoy asks Merkel that the EU help Spain as it is a country that delivers
The first day aster his landslide victory he did the same as the week before: he hid in his office, offered a closed-door speech to his party leadership without clarifying anything, avoided appearing before a press conference - despite many correspondents coming to the party HQ convinced that he would speak - and sent in his stead Dolores de Cospedal, the party secretary general and regional president of Castilla-La Mancha. As on any other Monday. "Who's this woman?", asked some special envoys from international TV stations sent to cover the elections.

...

"Rajoy manifested [to Merkel] the need that countries which deliver have to be helped by the European institutions. He explained that not all can be treated the same, the ones that deliver and those which don't", asserted Cospedal, suggesting that Spain, which according to Brussels is fulfilling what was asked of it, should be among those countries that the BCE should aid with its purchases.

...

"We're not going to work miracles and we never promised them. The solution to the debt problem must come from a joint Eurozone strategy. Rajoy understands that just like Spain is going to deliver, we have to demand that this fulfillment be recognised. What's clear is that Spain cannot continue to finance itself at 7%, she concluded.



If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jul 22nd, 2012 at 08:10:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
See also: It's election weekend by kcurie on November 20th, 2011)
[editor's note, by Migeru]* There are, in fact, rumours that the first thing Rajoy intends to do after the elections is attempt to strike a deal with Merkel: brutal and swift austerity in exchange for liquidity. I have seen this theory put forward from two very different sources, both blogs. The fist is vozpopuli.com a right wing online publication.
The alternative being considered in the PP hearquarters is of a secret Rajoy-Merkel pact, which in essence would put Spain under a sort of German "protectorate" during the first part of Rajoy's tenure "lend me a hand, Frau Merkel, keep the ECB's liquidity bar open for me so Spanish banks and Cajas can help themselves to their hearts' content, and I commit to immediately set in motion those deep reforms, even without anesthesia, which will take Spain out of the markets' limelight".
The second is El Pais, disparagingly called "the Social Democratic newspaper" by former social democrats.
an eventual PP government would, rather than try to coordinate with Italy, Greece or Portugal (or even France), try to take advantage of its ideological affinity with Merkel to, with the announcement of a sweeping programme of structural reforms and public expenditure cuts to meet the deficit objectives, sprint towards Berlin to establish the terms of a great pact: austerity and reforms in exchange for liquidity. The idea is that, while the reforms and cuts have their effect (in case they do) through productivity and (eventually) employment improvements, Germany and the BCE would give oxygen rather than strangle the Spanish economy, both as regards financing of the Spanish banking sector (with inevitably will remain "hooked" to the BCE for some time) as well as lowering the pressure on public debt (which only the BCE can undertake in this day and age, with its secondary market operations).
If to so widely different sources carry the same rumour, there may be something to it. I think Rajoy is delusional if he thinks Merkel will go along with it, or that if she does it will be of any help. But, then again, he's the guy who just two days ago begged the markets for a respite of more than half an hour in recognition of the fact that he will preside a new government and "deserves" a honeymoon period.


If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jul 22nd, 2012 at 08:13:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
(Rajoy) will preside a new government and "deserves" a honeymoon period.

Has he figured out yet what happens on honeymoons? He should know very well by now, but perhaps he didn't realize he was the bride.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Jul 22nd, 2012 at 01:26:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
clap

clap

clap

Bravo, Senior Pons. Bravo. You have arrived at the obvious conclusion only two years late. This demonstrates a remarkable mental acuity compared to most of your EPPES colleagues.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Jul 23rd, 2012 at 04:33:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You should see the reaction to that statement.

Esteban González Pons was the PP's pit bull during the last two years of ZP's government, the guy they had barking so that Rajoy could look reasonable and statesmanlike by comparison.

Now people are calling Pons a hypocrite, and saying thet he's blame-shifting, expecting the ECB to fix what only Spain can, etc... Also comments to the effect of "look what good massive bond purchases did to Greece, Ireland and Portugal".

Yes, <facepalm>.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 23rd, 2012 at 04:47:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
He suggests that Germany is the one that doesn't want Spain in "the same club as the countries of Northern Europe"

Of course. It's not about ECB. ECB does what german and french governments tell them to do. And the governments are in the hands of NCE "experts" and bankers  (feudalists).

by kjr63 on Mon Jul 23rd, 2012 at 08:25:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
El Pais op-ed: La pérdida de lo simbólico (Josep Ramoneda, 22 July 2012)
Personas que han visitado recientemente al presidente Rajoy han salido con la convicción de que el hombre no sabe realmente lo que le está pasando, que se había creído que su llegada bastaría para que volviera la calma a los mercados y la tranquilidad a la economía española, y que vive en el desasosiego de unos acontecimientos que le desbordan por completo. La realidad es que el presidente sigue a estertores las exigencias que le llegan de fuera, rehúye la complicidad de la oposición y de la propia sociedad, y se escuda en que no tiene libertad para decidir. ¿Cómo hay que entenderlo? ¿Asume el plan que se le impone desde fuera como parte de una estrategia destinada a hacer un nuevo traje legal a la medida del poder financiero y a la sustitución de la política democrática por el autoritarismo tecnocrático porque es su proyecto, o simplemente es un líder tambaleante que no se siente con fuerzas para movilizar a la ciudadanía en la vía de la recuperación?
The loss of [that which is] symbolic (Josep Ramoneda, 22 July 2012)
People who have recently visited PM Rajoy have come out convinced that the man doesn't know what hit him, that he had believed that his arrival would suffice for calm to return to the markets and quiet to the Spanish economy, and that he lives in the unease of events which completely overwhelm him. The reality is that the PM jerkingly follows the demands coming from outside, he avoids the complicity of the opposition and of society itself and he shields himself behind his not having the freedom to decide. How must one understand it? Is he accepting the plan imposed form outside as part of a strategy with the goal to make a new legal suit tailored to financial power and to the replacement of democratic politics with technocratic authoritarianism because that's his project, or is he simply a tottering leaded who doesn't feel strong enough to mobilize the citizenry on the road to recovery?


If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jul 22nd, 2012 at 08:22:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This just in from Reuters: Bank of Spain calls for more measures to end crisis
Bank of Spain deputy Governor Fernando Restoy said on Monday the solution to the current debt crisis was to make more cuts, more reforms, and more mechanisms to strengthen the euro zone economy.


If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 23rd, 2012 at 05:00:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Telegraph: Blaming the Spanish victim as Europe spirals into summer crisis: It is time for Spain and the victim states to seize the initiative. (Ambrose Evans-Pritchard)
The financial credibility of Spain is close to zero. Fiscal credibility is zero. Political credibility is zero. The new government of Mariano Rajoy has squandered the advantages of its absolute majority in a matter of months, and completely lost the confidence of Europe's institutions.

That is the verdict of unnamed EU officials and sources in Brussels cited by El Pais, following the twin crash of the Madrid bourse and the Spanish bond market on `Black Friday'.

The claims are self-serving spin by Europe's incompetent policy elite. Once again, they are blaming the victim for the consequences of their own scorched-earth monetary, fiscal, and regulatory policies.

...

Actually, the ECB is currently in breach of Article 127 (clause 5) of the Lisbon Treaty obliging it to contribute to "the stability of the financial system". The first duty of every central bank is to avert disaster.

It is time for Spain and the victim states to seize the initiative. They cannot force Germany, Holland, Finland, and Austria to swallow eurobonds, debt-pooling and fiscal union, and nor should they try since such a move implies the evisceration of their own democracies.

What they can to do is use their majority votes on the ECB's Governing Council to force a change in monetary policy. Germany has two votes out of 23, with a hardcore of seven or eight at most. The Greco-Latin bloc can force a showdown. If Germany storms out of monetary union in protest, that would be an excellent solution.

Fat chance of that when Spain's central bankers agree that more cuts is what's needed.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 23rd, 2012 at 10:45:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course, we do not know - but the rumours are that at multiple points in the crisis so far, the ECB has pressured governments not to undertake forceful restructuring of the financial sector and particularly not to impose creditor bail-ins.

So... not sure where that leave us.

One thought is that the majority of toxic debt has now been passed from private banks to governments, so Draghi is more comfortable about governments bailing-in...

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Sat Jul 21st, 2012 at 04:54:43 PM EST
It's possible that Trichet took a completely different view of creditor bail-ins than Draghi does.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jul 21st, 2012 at 05:03:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
these operators always did their thing discreetly, and we trusted them.

now every fool is getting interested in how the sausage gets made, and it's going to turn a lot of stomachs.

like Galbraith said in his quote about moral repugnance that Mig reminds us of sometimes, this mass education may be the only hope capitalism has to survive, albeit hopefully changed beyond recognition.

the patient is very ill indeed, and intent on continuing the same bad habits that got us up the creek.

it's not really that different than understanding how bookmakers make a profit, probability and luck, intuition and bluff, with the goal of making money, the greatest artificial motivation driver humanity has ever conjured up, easily outstripping religion by now.

the immense brainpower getting sucked into this global casino is staggering, one wonders what results would emerge if it were harnessed to endeavours that were actually productive socially-

banking served a non-nefarious purpose, once upon a time, and it attracted cautious, sober, prudent men more than bareback gamblers and coke-crazed yuppies with the attention span of ferrets.

the benefits of banking were locally obvious, and one can easily appreciate how the industry/profession attained its high social status, especially when even kings and queens had to moderate their behaviour to keep the finance folks sweet.

all those wars to keep the men of unruly age busy (and their wives home alone and undefended) never came cheap!

"It's very hard to see what is kept invisible" Roseanne Barr

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sat Jul 21st, 2012 at 06:00:00 PM EST
European Tribune - The Eurozone's sovereign has spoken

Doesn't something need to be done about the urgency of the situation?

Let me tell you about my experience.

Let me duck your question by telling a story, which will divert your attention because people always listen to stories.

In 1988 the Delors Committee set out the route towards Monetary Union, with a goal, a timetable and commitments to be respected. This prospect resulted in the Maastricht Treaty in 1992. Italy's borrowing rates were very high at the time. But as a result of its involvement in the project of Monetary Union, Italy saw an abrupt fall in its rates, before there was even a decrease in the deficit, which stood at 11% of GDP!

See, the peripherals got cheap rates, that's the problem and don't forget it!

This leads me to believe that if countries make firm commitments, even iof a long-term nature, this has an impact in the short term.

My conclusion is blatantly specious, but don't you worry, I'm making sense. The takeaway is:

  1. cheap rates (see above)
  2. Italy is the bad apple in the barrel.

I'm putting out a reminder that Italy never belonged in the euro. Germany was firmly opposed to its inclusion. France said there was no sense to a monetary union that did not include Europe's N°3 economy and one of the original Community Six. French universalist idealism prevailed. My German masters now consider it's payback time.

By the way, I'm not the Eurozone's sovereign. The German political/economic/financial establishment is.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Jul 22nd, 2012 at 02:59:36 AM EST
Yanis Varoufakis: What the EIB makes the ECB unmakes: The latest from the Greek front (22 July 2012)
When all is said and done, the picture that emerges is one of a Europe with an arm that is meekly trying to fix things while the other arm is violently destroying whatever the benign limb is putting together. The EIB announces a 600 million euros of SME funding from 1st September (tiny compared to Greece's unspent structural funds) at the same time that the ECB (a) pulls the remaining piece of the rug from under the Greek banks and (b) demands of the Greek state that it borrows from the EFSF 900 millions so as to hand them over to it on 20th August as a pure profit payment. Does this sound like sensible policies of a currency union in trouble? Or does it look like the last stages of a currency union that has lost the will to live?


If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jul 22nd, 2012 at 06:20:57 AM EST
That's a quadruple whammy for Greece.

  1. EIB leaves Greece for 2 years at precisely the time Greece needs it because of rumored eurozone exit.

  2. Greece loses ability to receive EU structural funds for lack of matching cash.

  3. Instead of reinvesting profits from distressed bonds, Greece needs to borrow to pay them back in full, thereby increasing its debt.

  4. The ECB refuses to accept collateral from Greek banks, thereby forcing them to receive help from the Greek gov't, whose rates are much much higher than the ECBs.

I'm not even going to mention the bank runs in Greece with all the capital fleeing north.
by Upstate NY on Sun Jul 22nd, 2012 at 08:22:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In the long-run the EU/ECB/Germany are the biggest SYRIZA endorsers.

SYRIZA or military coup.

by cagatacos on Sun Jul 22nd, 2012 at 12:54:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In the long run, the Brussels/Frankfurt consensus endorses a military coup.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jul 22nd, 2012 at 01:32:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Military coup: desired (by EU/ECB) and probable.

SYRIZA: undesired and improbable.

I am not sure that SYRIZA is any good, BTW: they are clearly still buying the Euro narrative, and I believe that, under the hood, there are many hard-left totalitarian freaks.

by cagatacos on Sun Jul 22nd, 2012 at 02:20:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And yet the top economic advisers for Tsipras are all well known and respected, from full profs at LSE to people like Varoufakis at U. Athens.

Hard left totalitarian freaks? Even Varoufakis says he is a Communist, but he really sounds like a Marxist Capitalist. Some of his earliest posts on the crisis in 2010 emphasized that the country's $400 million profit a year lottery was up for sale for $900 million (obviously a ripoff). I hear the price for it has dropped considerably. This shows why SYRIZA is not keen on privatization.

by Upstate NY on Sun Jul 22nd, 2012 at 02:34:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The argument of being a full professor at LSE sounds a bit classist don't you think? Since when being a university professor is assurance of anything? Especially in economics ;)

But well, the honest truth is that I am only relating to SYRIZA's friends in Portugal (Tsipras is going there for the Leftwing block convention in November). Not a great argument, I surely grant you that. But with friends like these it is only natural to get suspicious.

SYRIZA seems indeed very similar to the left wing block (again, not a great argument - grant you that): very cosmopolitan/modern/European on the outside, but the people at pulling the strings are indeed totalitarian trotskyists (I repeat that I am making an analogy with their Portuguese friends, might not be perfect).

by cagatacos on Sun Jul 22nd, 2012 at 03:24:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe, maybe there are many freaks at LSE, but then Varoufakis has been cited here repeatedly over the last 2 years, and for the most part, his ideas and offerings have been taken seriously.
by Upstate NY on Mon Jul 23rd, 2012 at 12:54:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Inside Greece: For Greece, ECB = End Close, Beware (July 22, 2012)
While Frankfurt's two previous refusals to accept Greek bonds this year were linked to specific events and served as a brief parenthesis in the liquidity process, by linking its latest decision to the troika report on Greece, the ECB has opened a bracket without knowing when or if it will be closed.

...

It is slightly puzzling that such an onerous decision as rejecting Greek bonds should be taken by the ECB just a couple of days after one of its board members made extremely generous comments about Greece's fiscal efforts. In what is probably the most positive statement about Greece to come out of the mouth of an ECB official over the last two years, policymaker Joerg Asmussen told Germany's Stern magazine: "We should show respect for what Greeks are doing. From 2009 to 2010, Greece took fiscal adjustment measures equivalent to 5 percent of GDP. If this was translated to the Germany economy, it would mean saving about 125 billion euros within a year. Something like this would create real problems for any government. So, we should at least say: `Well done, it's a start.'."

...

Taking all this into account, the ECB's policy verdict on Greek bonds carries an unusual political tilt. It appears that Europe's independent central bank has taken a deliberate political choice rather than an impartial economic decision. Frankfurt has opted for the one policy tool it had that could maximize the pressure on the Greek government at this crucial point. Maybe it is a reminder to Athens that it has yet to conclude its bank recapitalization process, with the questions over the future of ATEbank in particular remaining unresolved. It seems more likely, though, that ECB policymakers are making it clear to Greek politicians their room for maneuver disappeared some time ago. Using the troika review as the pivotal moment is unlikely to be a coincidence.



If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jul 22nd, 2012 at 02:03:09 PM EST
The Greek gov'ts have been passing reforms and slashing the budget dramatically. The budget has been crushed. And though this is apparently not enough for many, it shows that they actually pushed through a lot, and had they pushed through even more, it is arguable that the economy would be in even worse shape (though that is hard to fathom).

Two years ago the Bank of Greece warned that default and exit from the eurozone would mean a drop in asset values of 30% and a complete cratering of the economy.

Two years later, that has been achieved through austerity measures.

A forceful push out of the eurozone will result in a revolution in Greece, have no doubt. Those who dealt with the troika established legitimacy ONLY because they sold the program's necessity for remaining in the euro. If Europe does not hold its end of the bargain now, Greece's politics will undergo a more radical change than they already have. This will be read as an "Emperor Has No Clothes" moment much like the realization that the Junta in 1974 (after the Cyprus invasion) had no friends or support in NATO nor in Washington, DC. There will then be an epic battle between fascists, the rejectionist and isolationist nationalists, and the far left.

by Upstate NY on Sun Jul 22nd, 2012 at 02:40:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And the Brussels/Frankfurt elites will shrug and conclude that those Greeks just cannot rule themselves.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jul 22nd, 2012 at 02:43:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/huff-wires/20120722/eu-greece-financial-crisis/

Roesler told ARD television Sunday he is "more than skeptical" and that, if Greece doesn't fulfill the conditions, "there can be no further payments to Greece."

He added: "I think that for many experts, for the FDP, for me too, a Greek exit from the eurozone has long since lost its horror."

by Upstate NY on Sun Jul 22nd, 2012 at 05:37:27 PM EST


Display:
Go to: [ European Tribune Homepage : Top of page : Top of comments ]