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Sen: Europe Betrayed By Austerity

by afew Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 06:07:39 AM EST

Amartya Sen has a reasonable summary of Europe's problems in The Guardian's Comment Is Free section. Observing that placing monetary union before political union was an historical mistake, he goes on to distinguish two current issues: the counterproductive nature of austerity policy, and the lack of viability of the common currency.

Austerity is undermining Europe's grand vision | Amartya Sen | Comment is free | The Guardian

The moral appeal of austerity is deceptively high ("if it hurts, it must be doing some good"), but its economic ineffectiveness has been clear at least since Keynes's debunking of "the remedy of austerity" in the Great Depression of the 1930s, with unemployment and idle capacity due to a lack of effective demand. It is also self-defeating in reducing public deficits, because austerity tends to depress economic growth, so reducing a government's revenue. Much of the eurozone has been shrinking rather than expanding since the inception of these policies.

However, we have to go well beyond Keynes in understanding the harm done by the ill-chosen cult of austerity. We have to ask what public expenditure is for – other than just strengthening effective demand (on which Keynes concentrated, focusing on the expenditure itself, rather than on the services it supported). Savage cuts in important public services undermine what had emerged as a social commitment in Europe by the 1940s, and which led to the birth of the welfare state and the national health services, setting a great example of public responsibility from which the entire world would learn.

As for the common currency:

The inflexibility of fixed exchange rates of the euro is inherently problematic when the economic performance of countries continues to differ. A unified currency in a politically united federal country (such as in the US) survives through adjustment mechanisms (including large internal migration and substantial transfers) that cannot yet be a norm in a politically disunited Europe.


For sure, this is not a transfer union, as German leaders have continued to repeat (see also Finland, Austria, Netherlands). And the only proactive policy in favour of migration since the Maastricht Treaty instituted EU citizenship twenty years ago has been of the Bolkestein wage-and-social-security-busting variety. Worse, as Sen points out, the exacerbation of nationalism and xenophobia in the current crisis makes large-scale migration even less likely.

And, worse yet, the lack of public debate (I'd say even of information conducive to public debate), of democracy in decision-making (or fudging), accompanies the two issues above.

Austerity is undermining Europe's grand vision | Amartya Sen | Comment is free | The Guardian

Decision-making without public discussion – standard practice in the making of European financial policies – is not only undemocratic, but also inefficient in terms of generating reasoned practical solutions. For example, serious consideration of the kinds of institutional reforms badly needed in Europe – not just in Greece – has, in fact, been hampered, rather than aided, by the loss of clarity on the distinction between reform of bad administrative arrangements on the one hand (such as people evading taxes, government servants using favouritism, or unviably low retiring ages being preserved), and on the other, austerity in the form of ruthless cuts in public services and basic social security. The requirements for alleged financial discipline have tended to amalgamate the two in a compound package, even though any analysis of social justice would assess policies for necessary reform in an altogether different way from ruthless cuts in important public services.

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The comment thread is predictably cringe-worthy.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 06:09:08 AM EST
For example, serious consideration of the kinds of institutional reforms badly needed in Europe - not just in Greece - has, in fact, been hampered, rather than aided, by the loss of clarity on the distinction between reform of bad administrative arrangements on the one hand (such as people evading taxes, government servants using favouritism, or unviably low retiring ages being preserved), and on the other, austerity in the form of ruthless cuts in public services and basic social security. The requirements for alleged financial discipline have tended to amalgamate the two in a compound package, even though any analysis of social justice would assess policies for necessary reform in an altogether different way from ruthless cuts in important public services.
This is intentional, of course.

Presseurop: Draghi buries European social model (27 February 2012)

"The European social model has already gone". Never has a central banker spoken with such brutality about the ongoing crisis. The remarks made by Italian Mario Draghi who has succeeded Jean-Claude Trichet at the head of the ECB, in a long interview with the Wall Street Journal on Friday 24 February, are so overwhelming in their implications that they probably could not have been published elsewhere than in the newspaper revered as the "bible" of global finance. Even Jean-Claude Trichet chose his words more carefully when attempting to explain what the future holds for the peoples of Europe.

For Mario Draghi, a former Goldman Sachs banker who now commands the fate of Europe's single currency, the bid to save the euro will come at a high cost. Specifically, there will be "no escape" from tough austerity measures in all of the over-indebted countries; and this will necessarily involve giving up a social model based on job security and generous safety nets.

The model that provided the basis for European prosperity since the Second World War "has gone," argues Mario Draghi who reminds the WSJ journalist that the situation described in the famous quote from German economist Rudi Dornbusch - "the Europeans are so rich they can afford to pay everybody for not working" - no longer applies.

...

However, the argument put forward Mario Draghi is incontrovertible: any "backtracking on fiscal targets [for debt reduction] would elicit an immediate reaction by the market" that would push up interest rates for sovereign states, making it even more difficult, or even impossible for them to clean up their books. This is what happened in Greece, and what almost happened in Portugal, Spain, and Italy.

Note that Trichet just "chose his words more carefully", not that he necessarily had a different vision.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 06:31:19 AM EST
Sure, Sen maintains a fair amount of distance - just as he doesn't mention German internal devaluation. His stance seems to be that of someone from elsewhere on the planet who deplores the destruction of what was positive in Europe's example.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 07:14:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Greg Palast hints that this was all planned...
Robert Mundell, evil genius of the euro
: For the architect of the euro, taking macroeconomics away from elected politicians and forcing deregulation were part of the plan (The Guardian, 26 June 2012)
That progenitor is former University of Chicago economist Robert Mundell. The architect of "supply-side economics" is now a professor at Columbia University, but I knew him through his connection to my Chicago professor, Milton Friedman, back before Mundell's research on currencies and exchange rates had produced the blueprint for European monetary union and a common European currency.

...

"It's very hard to fire workers in Europe," he complained. His answer: the euro.

The euro would really do its work when crises hit, Mundell explained. Removing a government's control over currency would prevent nasty little elected officials from using Keynesian monetary and fiscal juice to pull a nation out of recession.

"It puts monetary policy out of the reach of politicians," he said. "[And] without fiscal policy, the only way nations can keep jobs is by the competitive reduction of rules on business."




If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 07:20:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is a contemporary article from 20 years ago: Maastricht and All That by Wynne Godley, 8 October 1992
The central idea of the Maastricht Treaty is that the EC countries should move towards an economic and monetary union, with a single currency managed by an independent central bank. But how is the rest of economic policy to be run? As the treaty proposes no new institutions other than a European bank, its sponsors must suppose that nothing more is needed. But this could only be correct if modern economies were self-adjusting systems that didn't need any management at all.

I am driven to the conclusion that such a view - that economies are self-righting organisms which never under any circumstances need management at all - did indeed determine the way in which the Maastricht Treaty was framed. It is a crude and extreme version of the view which for some time now has constituted Europe's conventional wisdom (though not that of the US or Japan) that governments are unable, and therefore should not try, to achieve any of the traditional goals of economic policy, such as growth and full employment. All that can legitimately be done, according to this view, is to control the money supply and balance the budget. It took a group largely composed of bankers (the Delors Committee) to reach the conclusion that an independent central bank was the only supra-national institution necessary to run an integrated, supra-national Europe.

But there is much more to it all. It needs to be emphasised at the start that the establishment of a single currency in the EC would indeed bring to an end the sovereignty of its component nations and their power to take independent action on major issues. As Mr Tim Congdon has argued very cogently, the power to issue its own money, to make drafts on its own central bank, is the main thing which defines national independence. If a country gives up or loses this power, it acquires the status of a local authority or colony. Local authorities and regions obviously cannot devalue. But they also lose the power to finance deficits through money creation while other methods of raising finance are subject to central regulation. Nor can they change interest rates. As local authorities possess none of the instruments of macro-economic policy, their political choice is confined to relatively minor matters of emphasis - a bit more education here, a bit less infrastructure there. I think that when Jacques Delors lays new emphasis on the principle of `subsidiarity', he is really only telling us we will be allowed to make decisions about a larger number of relatively unimportant matters than we might previously have supposed. Perhaps he will let us have curly cucumbers after all. Big deal!




If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Jul 4th, 2012 at 07:31:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Greg Palast is a bright guy who sees himself as a  detective of financial (and other) evil doing, and enjoys a bit of theatre at the same time. I take him with a grain or two. Salt or ibuprofen.
Still, in this case I'd say he was quite direct in his "The bastards did this on purpose!"thesis..

We should declare an obligatory holiday in Chicago, get everyone out of town, and just use a tactical nuke on the university.
If I were a bit more Stalinist, I'd blow off the holiday.


Capitalism searches out the darkest corners of human potential, and mainlines them.

by geezer in Paris (risico at wanadoo(flypoop)fr) on Wed Jul 18th, 2012 at 02:38:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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