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Tuesday Open Thread

by DoDo Tue Aug 14th, 2012 at 12:00:49 PM EST

What's on your mind?


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Posting an OT was on mine :)
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Aug 14th, 2012 at 12:02:07 PM EST
It looks like I've found a possible solution to Mentatmark's photos nor displayed by Flickr issue discussed a couple of days ago.

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
by Bernard on Tue Aug 14th, 2012 at 02:21:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I've replied over there.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Aug 14th, 2012 at 03:37:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Mutant butterflies a result of Fukushima nuclear disaster, researchers say - This Just In - CNN.com Blogs

the first sign that the Fukushima nuclear disaster may be changing life around it, scientists say they've found mutant butterflies.

Some of the butterflies had abnormalities in their legs, antennae, and abdomens, and dents in their eyes, according to the study published in Scientific Reports, an online journal from the team behind Nature. Researchers also found that some affected butterflies had broken or wrinkled wings, changes in wing size, color pattern changes, and spots disappearing or increasing on the butterflies.

The study began two months after an earthquake and tsunami devastated swaths of northeastern Japan in March 2011, triggering a nuclear disaster. The Fukushima Daiichi plant spewed radiation and displaced tens of thousands of residents from the surrounding area in the worst nuclear accident since the 1986 Chernobyl disaster in Ukraine.

In May 2011, researchers collected more than 100 pale grass blue butterflies in and around the Fukushima prefecture and found that 12% of them had abnormalities or mutations. When those butterflies mated, the rate of mutations in the offspring rose to 18%, according to the study, which added that some died before reaching adulthood. When the offspring mated with healthy butterflies that weren't affected by the nuclear crisis, the abnormality rate rose to 34%, indicating that the mutations were being passed on through genes to offspring at high rates even when one of the parent butterflies was healthy.



It's a fine line between homage, parody, and consumer opportunism. Jess Walter
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Aug 14th, 2012 at 12:14:26 PM EST
And in other news we should achieve, during the summer, an ice free Arctic ocean by 2020.  

(Hopeless, isn't it?)

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Tue Aug 14th, 2012 at 12:50:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's up to us to adapt. I think we are capable of adapting.

Other creatures may expererience variable mileage. Rats and cockroaches should do OK.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Aug 14th, 2012 at 02:59:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
my fear is it's making us all dumber, mostly because we don't know it, because we're getting dumber.

vicious spiral of denial, i guess...

what if we don't know what we do know, as the organ itself is getting less perceptive about its own condition?

ET is helping to plug the leaks somehow!

music too.

It's a fine line between homage, parody, and consumer opportunism. Jess Walter

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Aug 14th, 2012 at 05:51:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A fine ecology we will have: humans, rats and cockroaches.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Aug 14th, 2012 at 10:15:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Magnifico on Tue Aug 14th, 2012 at 02:59:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My understanding is they've found much worse on crustaceans already. But it's the same as taking a cross ocean flight, or living in Colorado, so nothing to see, please move along.

As if humans understood the genetic code.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin

by Crazy Horse on Tue Aug 14th, 2012 at 04:47:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm trying to plan a travel-by-train vacation in Croatia, and it seems to be impossible to go by train from Ljubljana to Pula (in Istria) after September the 26th... ! is there some local connection (even with very local trains...) that allow to cross the Slovenia-Croatia border when the Budapest-Pula sleeper train is not running (which is, mostly, in the summer ?)

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Tue Aug 14th, 2012 at 04:48:02 PM EST
From what I can find in the on-line timetables of the two railways ( and ), local trains go only until the border stations on both sides (Rakitovec in Slovenia and Buzet in Croatia), and on 26 September, even there, only a couple of times a day. A safer and possibly faster possibility is (with all data for weekdays in the period 24-28 September):
  1. cross the border with a train from Ljubjana to Rijeka (there are direct trains leaving at 06:20 and 15:10, arriving at 09:02 resp. 17:55);
  2. use the railway-operated (and rail ticket recognising) non-stop bus from Rijeka to Lupoglav (they leave at 06:00, 10:45, 14:25 and 19:30 and travel time is 40 minutes);
  3. board a local train from Lupoglav to Pula (they leave at 04:45, 05:40, 07:32, 11:39, 13:22, 15:08, 16:18 and 20:16; with travel times of slightly above one and a half hour).


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 06:31:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I actually want to travel on August 26th, not september, but i'm not sure I can trust the Munich-Ljubljana sleeper being enough on time that we can get the Ljubljana-Pula train that day. Also, it seems impossible to book that sleeper online and see if there are available beds on it...

It's a bit sad that neither the Slovenes nor the Croats are willing to send their trains a few kms further across the border and create an actual connection... Euro trains aren't mature yet !

Trying to go through Venice (and boat) isn't easy either as on that weekend all sleepers are booked full ! :(

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 07:51:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Munich-Ljubjana shouldn't be a big worry: the stop in Villach, Austria has a buffer time of 24 minutes for any lateness until then and the Slovenian section is relatively short, so those 34 minutes should be enough. (You should expect big delays in the other direction.) As for reserving... even if done at a counter, by my experience, 11 days ahead is too close, chances are all beds are taken :-(

Are day trains and maybe a longer travel with a stop in Munich or Ljubjana no option for you?

Regarding trains in Istria, Croatia has bold plans for a rail line from Rijeka to Lupoglav (it needs a major tunnel), but I wonder if I will ever see it.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 08:37:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We found a sleeper compartment in the Thello to Venice on Friday night so we'll go by boat to Pula, finally...

I initially wanted to stop in Ljubljana, but the lack of trains to Pula after the 26th was quite a problem.

Since we'll be coming back from Zagreb by train too, the lateness of trains going to Villach is duly noted !

And we'll try to book the Zagreb-Paris part of the trip a bit early.

A bit surprised to find the trains in Slovenia and Croatia so sparse, though. Did it get much worse in the 90's and 2000's or was it always this way ?

Not even a train from Venezia to Ljubljana !

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères

by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 09:31:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Most of it being mountainous and not much industrialised, railways weren't all that developed in Austria-Hungary times: single-track lines to ports across the mountains. These were upgraded only to a limited extent in Yugoslavia times (electrification), when most money went for new lines in the even less developed areas further southeast. But the Venezia-Ljubjana (sleeper) connection was terminated only in this timetable year (I rode it only a year ago), when Italy's railways didn't want it anymore (possibly connected to the birth of Thello).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 10:05:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
When do we get some European policy of fostering the existence of international rail links ? I know we're not seeing a EU rail monopoly any time soon...

Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
by linca (antonin POINT lucas AROBASE gmail.com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 12:16:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The way things are going economically and politically, never. :(
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 12:20:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
By rail links, do you mean train services? (There is a substantial policy of fostering cross-border infrastructure development.) I say as soon as politicians stop being enamoured by open access (and roads)...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 02:59:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Adding, while long-distance services are one thing, there is a general problem for local train services. Almost all of those are subsidized by a public authority, but public authorities are little inclined to cooperate in the tricky joint subsidization of services across their borders. Thus these services end up having excessively high ticket prices, often have bad connections on one side of the border, with resulting low ridership and eventual cancellation.

Earlier, this problem existed at national borders. However, now that the trend in large countries is to put local rail into the hands of regional authorities loosely identical with EU regions (Germany's states, Spain's autonomous communities, France's régions), there are a lot more borders where this problem can occur.

The solution would be for a greater territorial authority to have a special budget to subsidize these services, but fat chance seeing it happening any time soon.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 03:11:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But Thello is run by Trenitalia in Italy - Thello looks like SNCF wanting out of night trains. They cut all day service between Venice and Vienna a few years ago, so it looks more like Trenitalia not wanting to do international trains (they got out of Brenner services around the same time).
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Thu Aug 16th, 2012 at 03:26:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thello still runs international trains, but without SNCF as partner (while SNCF now runs TGVs to Milan on its own, too). So on one hand, it was about a divorce. On the other hand, it was also about outsourcing as an excuse to reduce service, in Italy too – some connections are to be re-started by Arenaways, the open access operator which failed previously with day trains (but the Arenaways night train is late).

Trenitalia not wanting to do international trains is the third issue. By the way, at least Villach-Udine local trains returned to the Pontebbana: since 10 June this year, ÖBB and Italian regional operator FUC teamed up for two daily return services.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Thu Aug 16th, 2012 at 04:26:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ryan from 2002:
Mr. Chairman, it has been the American policy from Republican presidents and Democrat presidents that we engage; it has been in the American policy that we engage the Soviet Union, that we engage China, that we, just a few minutes ago, voted to engage Vietnam. We should do the same with Cuba.


"Beware of the man who does not talk, and the dog that does not bark." Cheyenne
by maracatu on Tue Aug 14th, 2012 at 09:33:38 PM EST
Everyone is right about something at sometime. But it is interesting to consider if this one will come back to bite him in Florida. I doubt it. It would be different if he were a Democrat.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Aug 14th, 2012 at 10:18:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Eurointelligence Daily Briefing: Greece to seek two year extension of latest austerity programme
The FT has obtained a document showing that Greece is now seeking a two-year extension to its austerity programme; Antonis Samaras is expected to outline the proposal to Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande next week; spending cuts are to be phased in over four years until 2016, with a slower trajectory of cuts in the budget deficit; the additional funding requirement would be €20bn; the Greek government managed to sell over €4bn in T-bills mainly to domestic banks, which obtained the funds through the ELA - in other words through the ECB; the Greek government has effectively imposed a moratorium on all public payments, except salaries and pensions; the Dutch Socialists are emerging as the front-runners in the upcoming elections; the eurozone shrunk by 0.2% in Q2, with Germany doing a little better than expected; southern Europe is mired in a dismal recession; indicators show that Germany and the Netherlands are both headed for a downturn later this year; Olli Rehn underlined Mario  Draghi's message that the ECB will do whatever it takes; Wolfgang Munchau says the scope for intervention is more limited than investors believe; Robert Rubin says there is no alternative to the path of conditional help as outlined by Draghi; Neil Unmack writes the ECB should address the problem of seniority; Spanish banks increase their ECB borrowings to a new record level; the Spanish government is negotiating a deal to exempt retail investors of bank preference shares from a wipe-out; Mariano Rajoy says he is open-minded about a programme, but says the conditions must be reasonable; the German constitutional court reaffirmed its ESM-ruling timetable; the Bundesbank warns the IMF against overstretching its resources; William Cline, meanwhile, finds that Spanish and Italian public debt is likely to be sustainable under reasonable assumptions.


If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 03:52:39 AM EST
Far left wing party emerges as frontrunner in Dutch elections

A far left-wing party is emerging as a frontrunner in next month's elections in the Netherlands according to recent polls. The Socialist Party, headed by the charismatic former school teacher Emile Roemer, could win 37 seats in the 150-member parliament, seven more than Rutte's Liberal Party, though De Volkskrant cites one poll with a more narrow advance, 34 against 33 and also cautioned against the results, as only one third of the polled declared to be sure of their choice. The leading Socialist Party did not sign the government's austerity programme, instead they call for more time to meet the 3% deficit limit - by 2015 not 2013 as targeted by the present government -- and want a broader mandate for the ECB. According to the party's programme more government spending is needed to help the economy while drastic budget cuts will harm the economy.



If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 03:53:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A bailout deal for Spanish savers

The FT has the story that the Spanish government was in talks with Joaquin Almunia to allow tens of thousands Spanish retail investors to be exempt from the losses imposed on bank bondholders. Many Spanish savers purchased high-interest preference shares- which were marketed aggressively in the run-up to the crisis - but these now face a complete wipe-out, as the banks receive official funding. The Spanish government is seeking a deal whereby retail savers face an immediate haircut of 50-70%, but would later be compensated with high interest payment over four to six years. A decision is not expected until September. A total of €30bn of such products were sold to retail investors, who hold about 60% of the entire stock of the Spanish banking sector's preference shares.

See this open thread comment from a month ago...

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 04:16:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
€30 billion?

What was the regulator doing while this was going on?

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 06:10:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Happy that cajas were recapitalising themselves.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 06:49:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Also, I can't find it now, but there was more discussion on another thread. (Which kind of boiled down to "what was the regulator thinking?")
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 06:12:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There's Subordinated Liability Exercises (the relevant phrase from the Memorandum) and smudge on the dotted line (here's where you were commenting that it looked like straightforward fraud).

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 06:48:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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