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Wednesday Open Thread

by afew Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 12:17:12 PM EST

Right you are


Display:
You prefer left?

(groupthink, grrmmbbll...)

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 12:18:02 PM EST
Prefer lower left hand quadrant.

Comrade

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 12:29:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Splitter.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 12:34:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
by ATinNM on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 12:43:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There's a possibility I may be writing one of those - although I doubt it will be that one.
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 03:11:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Eurotrib for Dummies?
by asdf on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 05:06:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think i need that

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Aug 16th, 2012 at 02:53:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, robbed. Every German has already lost € 3125.

Zinsraub: Krise hat jeden Deutschen schon 3125 Euro gekostet - Nachrichten Geld - WELT ONLINE interest robbery: every German crisis has already cost 3125 EUR - News Money - WELT ONLINE
Sparer haben durch die niedrigen Zinsen schon jetzt Milliarden verloren. Sie büßen dafür, dass die Banken und die Wirtschaft mit billigem Geld gestützt werden müssen. Das ist erst der Anfang. Von Holger ZschäpitzSavers have already lost billions by low interest rates. They pay for it that the banks and the economy had to be supported with cheap money. This is just the beginning. By Holger Zschäpitz

Brilliant. I am speechless.

by Katrin on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 12:49:46 PM EST
Die Welt, the "serious" arm of Bild...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 02:07:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Deflation is such a wonderful thing for savers.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 03:21:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The extent of stupidity drives me mad. I don't expect much from Die Welt, but this is so incredibly stupid. It hurts. Savers hope for a certain amount of interest, and if they don't get it, they are robbed of so and so much money. And normally Die Welt praises the market... I assume if I have the expectation of receiving double as much interest and don't get it, I am robbed of more money than Mr Zschäpitz, right? And if I expect 10% more wage and don't get it... Oops.
by Katrin on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 03:49:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Perhaps Mr Zschäpitz could tell us the rate of deflation he'd like to see?
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 03:58:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, he couldn't, because he couldn't tell the difference between deflation and "price stability". Anything that's not inflation is good and pretty much the same.
by Katrin on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 04:09:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Could he define the fall in German exports outside the Eurozone he'd like to see?
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 04:15:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I assume he believes ALL countries can have a trade surplus. If they don't have one, they are not hard working enough.
by Katrin on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 04:19:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, that's a sincere moral position for which he may be applauded.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 04:38:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...for which he may be paid according to achievement.
by Katrin on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 05:13:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Seen recently
Perhaps Ryan's most unconventional opinion on monetary policy came in the summer of 2010, when he told Ezra Klein that the Federal Reserve should actually raise interest rates even as the U.S. economy was still struggling: "[T]here's a lot of capital parked out there, and we need to coax it out into the markets," he said. "I think literally that if we raised the federal funds rate by a point, it would help push money into the economy, as right now, the safest play is to stay with the federal money and federal paper."

...

Ryan, however, has been consistent in his view that the Fed should do whatever it takes to fight inflation -- and stop trying to fret over the unemployment rate. In 2008, Ryan sponsored a bill that would repeal the Federal Reserve's "dual mandate" to tackle both inflation and high unemployment. Instead, under his bill, the Fed would focus only on "price stability."



If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 06:05:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Because announcing that you intend to collapse the price of treasury bonds will make people move out of tsys and into productive investment?

Someone has had waaay too much RatEx koolaid.

- Jake

If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 06:17:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He's just a Randian.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 06:20:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He really is quite poisonous and insane, isn't he?
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 06:19:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He simply agrees with that guy Zschäpitz that the government and central bank should conspire to raise interest rates so that rentiers can collect a higher subsidy for unhoardingtheir fiat money. The loanable fundds fallacy is in glorious display in the statement that higher interest rates are needed to lure out savers.

If you are not convinced, try it on someone who has not been entirely debauched by economics. — Piero Sraffa
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 06:31:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
good comment after a clueless article.

Why Demogoguing Paul Ryan Is Bad For Democrats | The New Republic

Similarly for pensions, if seniors are going to eat and live, then they have to consume some share of output. From a macroeconomic point of view, it doesn't matter how this is financed, publicly or privately. The are still going to eat. So, either you think we cannot afford retirees and have to kill them or let them live in poverty or the problem in its essence is the same whether you have public or private retirement funding. I don't think for an instant than we cannot afford decent retirement for our population. Of course we can. But, if retirees are going to consume x% of output, then we need x% of income to pay for it, or else we run fiscal deficits and run up debt to unsustainable levels. The solution to this problem is not to deny people retirement income, but to commandeer the necessary share of financial income so that retiree consumption and the income share allocated to retiree consumption are the same. If they are already consuming x, there is no question about our ability to produce that x. We can clearly produce it else they couldn't consume it. Hence, in this case, the problem is not a "real"problem, but a financing problem. Here too, the rubes, like Galston, think the answer is simply to reduce entitlements. If that is done by means testing, fine, because means-testing is simply another name for raising taxes on the well-to-do. If it is done by privatization or reducing benefits, not fine. That is backwards, reducing retiree consumption to the level that the rich will tolerate without pitching a fit rather than raising the tax revenues to the level needed to fund the consumption.

Altogether, the difference between the real economy and the financial economy is the source of the endless confusion. People get it wrong in both directions. Healthcare is primarily a real problem, and also to some extent a financing problem. Retirement income is not a real problem, it is a financing problem. And in neither case is it necessary or inevitable that the existence of an entitlement makes the problem worse. In general, the entitlement financing makes the problem better. Entitlements are not the problem. The tax system, under-taxation of those with the highest income share, is one problem and the lack of single-payer is the other problem.

The notion that this is something that can be discussed rationally in the context of an election campaign is sheer lunacy.

the rest of the comment is great too.h/t booman

It's a fine line between homage, parody, and consumer opportunism. Jess Walter

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 12:55:29 PM EST
The notion that this is something that can be discussed rationally in the context of an election campaign is sheer lunacy.

And now that election campaigns are 24 x 365 x every year, nothing can be discussed rationally ever.

by asdf on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 01:21:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Krugman's take:

Economics and Politics by Paul Krugman - The Truth Has A Well-Known Demagogic Bias - NYTimes.com

What's wrong with this lament? How about the fact that Romney-Ryan actually is a plan to end Medicare as we know it? (And why the quotation marks? That's what it is - replacing the system with fixed-value vouchers). It is also a plan for drastic cuts in food stamps and Medicaid, not to mention canceling the expansion of coverage under the Affordable Care Act, which would mean lost insurance for tens of millions of Americans - thousands of whom would, in fact, die as a result.

Yet pointing out these truths is, in the eyes of Very Serious People, "demagoguery."



Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
by Bernard on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 01:33:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The brown floating things in the punchbowl is the US has steadily reduced taxation on those most able to pay.  The "idea" - using the word loosely - was less taxes meant more jobs, meant more economic activity, meant more taxes from those least able to pay 'em.

Anyone with the intelligence of an average rock will immediately see one problem with that.  The second problem that arose is reducing taxation on those most able to pay did not, in fact, spur greater employment.

The upshot was reducing the level of taxation reduced the level of money the Federal government received.  Which is what some of us DFHs predicted and, to much scoff and laughter, we also predicted lowering taxation on those most able to pay would cause deficits.

So.

I gives me tremendous pleasure to say, at this time, "I Told You So."
 

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 02:50:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I uploaded a new TribExt version, TribExt v0.1234 for Firefox 16 (triggered by a request from melo). There are only two changes – a bugfix and something that may make the current version work without modifications for another year or two:

  • Some of you aren't even aware of the Comment Replies function. If the active tab of your browser is at any ET page, at the end of your Tools menu, there will be an option called "Find Comment Replies". This will open a new tab and display all new comments nested below your recent comments. This stopped working in Firefox 12, which is now fixed.

  • The reason I haven't updated TribExt since December is that from Firefox 10, it is no longer necessary. Earlier, the newest Firefox version which an extension is compatible with had to be indicated in the code of the extension ("maxversion"), and Firefox versions newer than that would use that to block the extension. So even if there weren't any true incompatibilities, we always had to bump maxversion. From version 10, Firefox now assumes extensions are compatible by default, and its developers try to give as few reasons as possible to break old code. However, this proved too optimistic, so from Firefox 11, compatibility is assumed only if maxversion is at least 4.0, but this will surely be raised. So I checked what Firefox developers are up to in FF15 and FF16, and bumped maxversion to 16. Hopefully this new TribExt version will then work until Firefox 26.

Download it via the special page or dirrectly. If there are any problems, please say so here.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 02:54:10 PM EST
Thanks, DoDo.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 03:26:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
excellent, will update after I've put the Salon together

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 03:57:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Without wanting to appear dense, could anyone in the know explain to me what TribExt is?

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 04:46:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
European Tribune - Download ET's own Firefox add-on: TribExt
Do you browse the web on Firefox? Then you can download TribExt, a nifty little add-on, written by ET user someone, to navigate around European Tribune easier.

The above blockquote was created by a simple right-click using TribExt and then paste into the comment box. Very convenient. Also the bilingual columns sometimes put together by those of us who read several languages can be created using that tool (at least most of the legwork). That's why it's very popular by many ET regulars.

The only point is: you have to use Firefox obviously.

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.

by Bernard on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 05:03:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Halves the time it takes to create the Salon :-)

Any idiot can face a crisis - it's day to day living that wears you out.
by ceebs (ceebs (at) eurotrib (dot) com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 05:49:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't have "Firefox obviously."  I have Firefox 14.0.1.

Will it still work?

Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere

by ATinNM on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 05:59:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Huh, that's interesting. I have Safari obviously.
by asdf on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 11:12:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes. Which is what DoDo was explaining.

Numerous snazzy features for ET users.

DL page here.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Aug 16th, 2012 at 02:28:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But I said nothing of a Firefox version "obviously" :-)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Aug 16th, 2012 at 03:00:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From the release notes for the different sub-releases of v 1234, it looks like the "obviously" version qualifier extends all the way to version 16...

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
by Bernard on Thu Aug 16th, 2012 at 04:43:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh, and I tried the "Find comment replies" menu item and it works! Thanks very much Dodo.

Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
by Bernard on Thu Aug 16th, 2012 at 04:44:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks. I do use Firefox. I'll look into it.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Thu Aug 16th, 2012 at 02:10:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm just not sure what it is.

At 3 A.M.this morning I thought I heard a noise I HATE to hear ... a baby bird somewhere in my place. Truffles at it again, I feared. I didn't find anything and I wanted to get to walking so I blew it off. So here I am at 5 P.M. and yes, there is a live baby Mockingbird chick squawking and moving all over the place (Truffles loves live toys) and all I can do is wait for it to die a slow death from dehydration/starvation.

Don't get me wrong. I don't blame ME ... I'm not raising a bird. And I don't blame Truffles ... this is part of living with an active predator. There's just something about doing nothing and waiting for the best outcome ... for this thing to die so I can dump it into the garbage. Somehow it reminds me of the "human condition". Sad.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wp4O7v5320

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 07:56:47 PM EST
There is probably someone in the area who would raise it, especially if it's unhurt. The humane society should know who is trained to do that.  When I lived in Silicon Valley, an ordinary songbird, sparrow or something of that ilk, fell from a nest and my neighbor and I took it to a woman who had a barn full of birds she was raising to let free.

 Can you find the nest?  Momma bird is possibly looking for it and you could put it back.  

I hate it when Eoghan gets a bird, or more often a lizard.  He doesn't NEED to dine out!  

by ElaineinNM on Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 08:46:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Time to reintroduce coyotes so that cats will get to face their natural predators? See the old paper by Crooks and Soulé Mesopredator release and avifaunal extinctions in a fragmented system
It appears that the decline and disappearance of the coyote, in conjunction with the effects of habitat fragmentation, affect the distribution and abundance of smaller carnivores and the persistence of their avian prey.
"smaller carnivores' in English means cats.
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Thu Aug 16th, 2012 at 01:46:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Coyotes get dogs, too.


'tis strange I should be old and neither wise nor valiant. From "The Maid's Tragedy" by Beaumont & Fletcher
by Wife of Bath (kareninaustin at g mail dot com) on Thu Aug 16th, 2012 at 03:10:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But that doesn't have much effect on the birds, as dogs don't seem to be very good at catching them (despite trying).
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Fri Aug 17th, 2012 at 07:19:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's chucking it down in Bamberg, so walking around is not gonna cut it even if the reduction in temperature is very welcome. Not that I need to cos I did most of my sightseeing yesterday when it was really too hot.

So today, at Dodo's suggestion I'm going over to Neumarkt to look at choo choos. No live steam, but I'm hoping the sheds will be open. That said, the rain is getting heavier by the minute so I'm wondering whether a day in the pub is called for.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Aug 16th, 2012 at 03:18:18 AM EST
Oh, I think rain AND hot weather both require a pub solution.  We've already collected twelve various brews for you to try here at Chez Bath -- or should I say "at Bath Haus."

'tis strange I should be old and neither wise nor valiant. From "The Maid's Tragedy" by Beaumont & Fletcher
by Wife of Bath (kareninaustin at g mail dot com) on Thu Aug 16th, 2012 at 11:17:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Thu Aug 16th, 2012 at 03:35:49 AM EST
Well, I've always argued that the US sub-contracts its foreign policy decision making to the Israelis anyway, so wearing their uniform is just a logical step.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Aug 16th, 2012 at 09:36:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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