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by afew Wed Aug 15th, 2012 at 12:17:12 PM EST
(groupthink, grrmmbbll...)
Comrade Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
Brilliant. I am speechless.
Perhaps Ryan's most unconventional opinion on monetary policy came in the summer of 2010, when he told Ezra Klein that the Federal Reserve should actually raise interest rates even as the U.S. economy was still struggling: "[T]here's a lot of capital parked out there, and we need to coax it out into the markets," he said. "I think literally that if we raised the federal funds rate by a point, it would help push money into the economy, as right now, the safest play is to stay with the federal money and federal paper." ... Ryan, however, has been consistent in his view that the Fed should do whatever it takes to fight inflation -- and stop trying to fret over the unemployment rate. In 2008, Ryan sponsored a bill that would repeal the Federal Reserve's "dual mandate" to tackle both inflation and high unemployment. Instead, under his bill, the Fed would focus only on "price stability."
...
Ryan, however, has been consistent in his view that the Fed should do whatever it takes to fight inflation -- and stop trying to fret over the unemployment rate. In 2008, Ryan sponsored a bill that would repeal the Federal Reserve's "dual mandate" to tackle both inflation and high unemployment. Instead, under his bill, the Fed would focus only on "price stability."
Someone has had waaay too much RatEx koolaid.
- Jake If you only spend 20 minutes of the rest of your life on economics, go spend them here.
Why Demogoguing Paul Ryan Is Bad For Democrats | The New Republic
Similarly for pensions, if seniors are going to eat and live, then they have to consume some share of output. From a macroeconomic point of view, it doesn't matter how this is financed, publicly or privately. The are still going to eat. So, either you think we cannot afford retirees and have to kill them or let them live in poverty or the problem in its essence is the same whether you have public or private retirement funding. I don't think for an instant than we cannot afford decent retirement for our population. Of course we can. But, if retirees are going to consume x% of output, then we need x% of income to pay for it, or else we run fiscal deficits and run up debt to unsustainable levels. The solution to this problem is not to deny people retirement income, but to commandeer the necessary share of financial income so that retiree consumption and the income share allocated to retiree consumption are the same. If they are already consuming x, there is no question about our ability to produce that x. We can clearly produce it else they couldn't consume it. Hence, in this case, the problem is not a "real"problem, but a financing problem. Here too, the rubes, like Galston, think the answer is simply to reduce entitlements. If that is done by means testing, fine, because means-testing is simply another name for raising taxes on the well-to-do. If it is done by privatization or reducing benefits, not fine. That is backwards, reducing retiree consumption to the level that the rich will tolerate without pitching a fit rather than raising the tax revenues to the level needed to fund the consumption. Altogether, the difference between the real economy and the financial economy is the source of the endless confusion. People get it wrong in both directions. Healthcare is primarily a real problem, and also to some extent a financing problem. Retirement income is not a real problem, it is a financing problem. And in neither case is it necessary or inevitable that the existence of an entitlement makes the problem worse. In general, the entitlement financing makes the problem better. Entitlements are not the problem. The tax system, under-taxation of those with the highest income share, is one problem and the lack of single-payer is the other problem. The notion that this is something that can be discussed rationally in the context of an election campaign is sheer lunacy.
Similarly for pensions, if seniors are going to eat and live, then they have to consume some share of output. From a macroeconomic point of view, it doesn't matter how this is financed, publicly or privately. The are still going to eat. So, either you think we cannot afford retirees and have to kill them or let them live in poverty or the problem in its essence is the same whether you have public or private retirement funding. I don't think for an instant than we cannot afford decent retirement for our population. Of course we can. But, if retirees are going to consume x% of output, then we need x% of income to pay for it, or else we run fiscal deficits and run up debt to unsustainable levels. The solution to this problem is not to deny people retirement income, but to commandeer the necessary share of financial income so that retiree consumption and the income share allocated to retiree consumption are the same. If they are already consuming x, there is no question about our ability to produce that x. We can clearly produce it else they couldn't consume it. Hence, in this case, the problem is not a "real"problem, but a financing problem. Here too, the rubes, like Galston, think the answer is simply to reduce entitlements. If that is done by means testing, fine, because means-testing is simply another name for raising taxes on the well-to-do. If it is done by privatization or reducing benefits, not fine. That is backwards, reducing retiree consumption to the level that the rich will tolerate without pitching a fit rather than raising the tax revenues to the level needed to fund the consumption.
Altogether, the difference between the real economy and the financial economy is the source of the endless confusion. People get it wrong in both directions. Healthcare is primarily a real problem, and also to some extent a financing problem. Retirement income is not a real problem, it is a financing problem. And in neither case is it necessary or inevitable that the existence of an entitlement makes the problem worse. In general, the entitlement financing makes the problem better. Entitlements are not the problem. The tax system, under-taxation of those with the highest income share, is one problem and the lack of single-payer is the other problem.
The notion that this is something that can be discussed rationally in the context of an election campaign is sheer lunacy.
the rest of the comment is great too.h/t booman It's a fine line between homage, parody, and consumer opportunism. Jess Walter
And now that election campaigns are 24 x 365 x every year, nothing can be discussed rationally ever.
Economics and Politics by Paul Krugman - The Truth Has A Well-Known Demagogic Bias - NYTimes.com
What's wrong with this lament? How about the fact that Romney-Ryan actually is a plan to end Medicare as we know it? (And why the quotation marks? That's what it is - replacing the system with fixed-value vouchers). It is also a plan for drastic cuts in food stamps and Medicaid, not to mention canceling the expansion of coverage under the Affordable Care Act, which would mean lost insurance for tens of millions of Americans - thousands of whom would, in fact, die as a result.Yet pointing out these truths is, in the eyes of Very Serious People, "demagoguery."
What's wrong with this lament? How about the fact that Romney-Ryan actually is a plan to end Medicare as we know it? (And why the quotation marks? That's what it is - replacing the system with fixed-value vouchers). It is also a plan for drastic cuts in food stamps and Medicaid, not to mention canceling the expansion of coverage under the Affordable Care Act, which would mean lost insurance for tens of millions of Americans - thousands of whom would, in fact, die as a result.
Yet pointing out these truths is, in the eyes of Very Serious People, "demagoguery."
Anyone with the intelligence of an average rock will immediately see one problem with that. The second problem that arose is reducing taxation on those most able to pay did not, in fact, spur greater employment.
The upshot was reducing the level of taxation reduced the level of money the Federal government received. Which is what some of us DFHs predicted and, to much scoff and laughter, we also predicted lowering taxation on those most able to pay would cause deficits.
So.
I gives me tremendous pleasure to say, at this time, "I Told You So." Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
Do you browse the web on Firefox? Then you can download TribExt, a nifty little add-on, written by ET user someone, to navigate around European Tribune easier.
The above blockquote was created by a simple right-click using TribExt and then paste into the comment box. Very convenient. Also the bilingual columns sometimes put together by those of us who read several languages can be created using that tool (at least most of the legwork). That's why it's very popular by many ET regulars.
The only point is: you have to use Firefox obviously. Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
Will it still work? Ever since I learnt about confirmation bias I've started seeing it everywhere
Numerous snazzy features for ET users.
DL page here.
At 3 A.M.this morning I thought I heard a noise I HATE to hear ... a baby bird somewhere in my place. Truffles at it again, I feared. I didn't find anything and I wanted to get to walking so I blew it off. So here I am at 5 P.M. and yes, there is a live baby Mockingbird chick squawking and moving all over the place (Truffles loves live toys) and all I can do is wait for it to die a slow death from dehydration/starvation.
Don't get me wrong. I don't blame ME ... I'm not raising a bird. And I don't blame Truffles ... this is part of living with an active predator. There's just something about doing nothing and waiting for the best outcome ... for this thing to die so I can dump it into the garbage. Somehow it reminds me of the "human condition". Sad. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_wp4O7v5320
Can you find the nest? Momma bird is possibly looking for it and you could put it back.
I hate it when Eoghan gets a bird, or more often a lizard. He doesn't NEED to dine out!
It appears that the decline and disappearance of the coyote, in conjunction with the effects of habitat fragmentation, affect the distribution and abundance of smaller carnivores and the persistence of their avian prey.
So today, at Dodo's suggestion I'm going over to Neumarkt to look at choo choos. No live steam, but I'm hoping the sheds will be open. That said, the rain is getting heavier by the minute so I'm wondering whether a day in the pub is called for. keep to the Fen Causeway
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