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by afew Fri Sep 14th, 2012 at 11:31:06 AM EST
The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
Chillum, chillun... economind yursef. "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
Nobody headed this way in October or November? Fall is really gorgeous. 'tis strange I should be old and neither wise nor valiant. From "The Maid's Tragedy" by Beaumont & Fletcher
Me taka train Monday, to greater downtown Husum. Wind Trade Fair event of the year. Big business deal, finest parties, everyone there. what's weird, it's a small town. So when 25,000 attendees crash into a place with 800 hotel rooms within 20 km, all hell breaks loose. People stay in vacation houses and rooms within a 100 km radius. Hundreds of cabbies, if not more, are imported from over north 'Schland. Folk stay in cities 150 km away.
The mayor invites everyone to the Rathaus for drinks, a thousand or two come, and there's fireworks over the wind turbine in the harbor. Some are already staggering from the Vestas party the night before.
I get to invite colleagues for whisky at Cafe Einstein on Wednesday. Ormonde offshore park will be inaugerated by Vattenfall. Nordex and REpower will fight to throw the best cocktail party, sometimes every evening.
(You see, it's not like other conferences. Since the attendees, except the top managers, have no place to go, so the Messe rocks on into the night. WAB ((Windenergie Agentur Bremen/Bremerhaven)) rocks the house, and dozens of firms bring live music into the halls.)
the business transacted is equally astounding.
On Friday evening is the traditional Wind Wanderers party, where restaurants and bars in town have live music and many thousands wander between venues, soaking up the local uh, alcohol. i've seen top execs being forced against a wall by their minions, to help them stay upright, where they would have melted into the pavement otherwise. Wrong enhancement for the masses.
Pretty heavy to be on your toes 4 straight days, around every corner is someone truly important for you to connect.
Plus all the latest tech is there, even this year helicopters giving demos of rescue at sea.
Unlike the past years' glorious weather, it will rain and be muddy as hell, harking back to the early days where the hundreds of pioneers of this industry gathered in barns.
Sadly, some of my top colleagues won't be there this year, having passed on, or were on the wrong motorcycle.
I love most the secrets unearthed.
And i didn't have a place to stay until two days ago, when another pioneer said i could stay at his wonderful country house, as at the last Husum celebration.
Given that when i began in the US, our first conferences had 40 people in a motel, and my first visit to Denmark introduced me to the other eighty working in the field, this is a huge passage to grok.
one week from tomorrow, the Saturday train home, is usually done with champagne, since the Wind Wanderers was the night before. As i begin to try and process the hundreds of key moments.
You can see how excited i am. We'll see how the Fair responds to the enormous pressure and negative projections for the industry, as the dinosaurs fight with their last breaths.
ONWARD! "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
A short pdf on one of the programs being run by the CLEEN consortium (companies, academia, research institutions, cooperating using Finnish state funding channeled through Tekes - the Finnish Funding Agency for Technology and Innovation). You can't be me, I'm taken
Short term stability of the gird does not compute with high penetration of wind. The short term stability of the grid is fine, especially in amurka where wind is 2%. High penetration of wind, you mean like in north germany or higher in Denmark, where we're well over 20%, and the grid still functions?
What we've learned is... utility engineers like to have something to do. In spite of them doing something, electron force still flows.
At current levels, and projected into the mid-term, there are zero effects on the grid which can't be managed cost-effectively.
What required technology? "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
Reserve capacity is something that needs to be managed on a system-wide basis, not on a plant by plant basis, otherwise it becomes horribly expensive - for all types of producers. This is the core mistake anti-wind opponents do about the cost of intermittency of wind - what matters is not the absolute intermittency of wind, but the additional cost it imposes on the system (which already has to deal with large intra-day variability and with possible incidents at very large plants like nukes). Practice tells us that this additional cost has consistently been overestimated. Wind power
"Practice tells us that this additional cost has consistently been overestimated. " "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
In large wind farms connected to the transmission network the main technical constraint to take into account is the power system transient stability that could be lost when, for example, a voltage dip causes the switch off of a large number of WGs. A system experiences a state of voltage instability when there is a progressive or uncontrollable drop in voltage magnitude after a disturbance, increase in load demand or change in operating condition. The main factor, which causes these unacceptable voltage profiles, is the inability of the distribution system to meet the demand for reactive power. Under normal operating conditions, the bus voltage magnitude (V) increases as Q injected at the same bus is increased. However, when V of any one of the system's buses decreases with the increase in Q for that same bus, the system is said to be unstable. Although the voltage instability is a localised problem, its impact on the system can be wide spread...
A system experiences a state of voltage instability when there is a progressive or uncontrollable drop in voltage magnitude after a disturbance, increase in load demand or change in operating condition. The main factor, which causes these unacceptable voltage profiles, is the inability of the distribution system to meet the demand for reactive power. Under normal operating conditions, the bus voltage magnitude (V) increases as Q injected at the same bus is increased. However, when V of any one of the system's buses decreases with the increase in Q for that same bus, the system is said to be unstable. Although the voltage instability is a localised problem, its impact on the system can be wide spread...
Voltage Stability Investigation of Grid Connected Wind Farm Trinh Trong Chuong
According to my limited understanding of the subject, to successfully integrate a large fraction of wind generators into your grid you need to have pretty sophisticated real-time monitoring of the voltage and current phases throughout the grid, and a system that tells you what to do when you have a troublesome transient condition, and then the appropriate resources (reactive power sources, for example) appropriately distributed within the system.
I don't know much about this, but my impression is that there is a lot of electrical engineering work going on in the background that is not immediately apparent. And my fundamental worry is that while "we" are all working vigorously for additional sustainable resources in the overall supply system, some of the hard technical problems have not actually been solved yet...
Maybe I'm full of it, which is why I would ask such questions at an appropriate conference...
This is exactly my question. If the integration timeline is, say, 20 years to get to, say, 50% of solar PV and wind supply, then that is one set of requirements to the power engineers. If the integration timeline is, say, 5 years, that is a significantly different--and potentially much more expensive--set of requirements...
More expensive? By what corrupt metrics? "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
http://www.ieawind.org/task_25.html
It seems that the stability of the grid does not become a problem at any penetration, i.e., solutions exist and are very affordable.
Another issue is that very high penetrations require improvements in transmission to reap the aggregation benefits. I.e., building long HVDC interconnects. There, concerns similar to yours may have a bit more validity. Somebody just has to start building the damn things ;-)
Let's plan a meetup later. 'tis strange I should be old and neither wise nor valiant. From "The Maid's Tragedy" by Beaumont & Fletcher
Have fun. Wind power
(The urban version next yea rin Hamburg, they alternate, has none of the magic.) "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
German energy transition is sustainable? (Policy Brief 281 - September 2012) 11/09/12 Germany began in 2011 a radical transition energy, or "Energiewende", whose goal is the complete abandonment of nuclear energy by 2022 and reduce emissions of greenhouse gas emissions in countries of 80-95% by 2050 . Before that date, the country will have to produce electricity by passing almost entirely of gas, oil and coal to replace 80% of renewable energy (RE). (...) Summary The ambitious goal of Energiewende : without nuclear energy, but also of fossil fuels and carbon An appeal must fossil fuels to provide the energy transition Development of renewable energy, spearhead Energiewende , faces many challenges Costs Energiewende are uncertain, but generally very high, and will be based ultimately on the German consumer The Energiewende result of a sovereign decision not without risk to the equilibrium of the EU energy policy
Germany began in 2011 a radical transition energy, or "Energiewende", whose goal is the complete abandonment of nuclear energy by 2022 and reduce emissions of greenhouse gas emissions in countries of 80-95% by 2050 . Before that date, the country will have to produce electricity by passing almost entirely of gas, oil and coal to replace 80% of renewable energy (RE).
(...)
Summary
(And yes, they either use google translate or someone rather incompetent to write their English summary...) Wind power
Challenges? That's what we're here for. Costs uncertain? Based upon what metrics. Equilibrium of EU energy policy? Gag me with a spoon. "Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Anaïs Nin
The other trend shaping up in our fair country this fall is also a big lobbying push and media blitz for fracking (unsuccessful so far), coupled with the inevitable dissing of renewables ("too expensive at the present" and "do not work anyway"). I'll try a diary if I can get the time. Europeans think a hundred miles is a long way. Americans think a hundred years is a long time.
Seriously, how many thousand native English speakers living in France and available for writing work?
Yup. Srsly.
Yesterday I looked at the site of French think tank EuropaNova (founded 2003). They offer English and French versions, but when you go for the English version you get 100% French...
Hollande is giving up an old nuclear power station (Fessenheim). Not such a high price to pay for his coalition with the ecologists of EELV.
That or a damn good long book keep to the Fen Causeway
That was supposed to be Zagreb-Munchen direct, but ended up being a Zagreb-Ljubljana, then Ljubljana-Jesenice by bus, then Jesenice-Villach, then Villach-Salzburg, and finally Salzburg-Munich ! Definitely not fun, with luggage and my wife being pregnant. We should have arrived at 2.30 pm, ended up four hours late. (and drunken German youth can be a bit noisy in those trains, too...). And to think we also took the Munich-Paris train in the evening...
Dodo was right warning this train was often late... The state of international railways in Europe is definitely not where it could and should be ! Un roi sans divertissement est un homme plein de misères
But I don't need to tell you this...
How Coal Brought Us Democracy, and Oil Ended It: Lessons from the New Book "Carbon Democracy" Matt Stoller is a fellow at the Roosevelt Institute. You can follow him at http://www.twitter.com/matthewstoller Long before politicians mewled helplessly about the power of "Big Oil", carbon-based fuels were shaping our very political, legal, intellectual, and physical structures. It was, for instance, coal miners who brought us the right to vote. Israel's founding had a lot to do with British fears of Palestinian labor unrest in coastal energy complexes. And the European Community was a post-WWII experiment to switch that continent to oil, a task begun before World War I by British conservatives to defeat their domestic political opponents. Glass-Steagall crimped financial flows, partially at the behest of the oil industry. In fact, you can't understand modern democratic or third world political structures without understanding energy, and particularly, coal and oil. That's the contention of Tim Mitchell's new book, Carbon Democracy Political Power in the Age of Oil, a history of the relationship between carbon-based fueling sources and modern political systems. It's a book that tackles a really big subject, in a sweeping but readable fashion, and after reading it, it's hard to imagine thinking about political power the same way again. (...) The use of coal and oil in the context of industrialization has always been about who has the power to profit from the surplus these energy forms produce, but until now, no one has pulled the various historical details together into a historical narrative laying bare the fascinating power dynamics behind the rise of Western political systems and their relationship with energy. Carbon Democracy is an examination of our civilization's 400 hundred year use of carbon-based energy fueling sources, and the political systems that grew up intertwined with them. Rather than presenting energy and democracy as separate things, like a battery and a device, Mitchell discusses the political architecture of the Western world and the developing world as inherently tied to fueling sources. The thesis is that elites have always sought to maximize not the amount of energy they could extract and use, but the profit stream from those energy sources. They struggled to ensure they would be able to burn carbon and profit, without having to rely on the people who extract and burned it for them. Carbon-based fuels thus cannot be understood except in the context of labor, imperialism and democracy. (...) Mitchell points out that the problem of oil has never, until recently, been that it is a scarce commodity, but that it is a surplus commodity. We had too much of it. And the central problem that this created was now how to find more of it, but how to ensure that oil cartels profiting from high oil prices could make sure that very few new oil finds, especially from the massive fields in the Middle East, came online. Far from a hardy band of entrepreneurs searching for more oil, the story of oil is one of parasitic cartels manipulating governments and inventing concepts like mandates, self-determination, and national security to ensure they could retain high profits selling a widely available commodity. But Mitchell takes the story much deeper than Yergen did, because Yergen's book is fundamentally a fairy tale that skirts over questions of labor and colonialism. Mitchell goes back before the widespread use of oil, to the industrialization of England and England's use of carbon-based fuels, like forests, peat, and coal. Industrialization demanded two seemingly contradictory factors - huge new tracts of land to grow industrial raw materials like cotton and high energy food crops like sugar, and far more centralized urban centers for manufacturing. What happened, of course, is that England simply acquired colonies with large land tracts overseas, using slave labor to harvest necessary commodities, while becoming an urban society in its core areas. Eventually, England began using coal to fuel its economy, leading to substantial economic growth and imperial strength. Coal, though, presented a challenge to the governing elites, since the characteristics of coal, with its labor intensive extraction methods, were quite vulnerable to strikes. Coal was hard to transport, and miners operated underground in a collaborative manner. Once on the surface, coal had to be moved by fixed networks of trains. There were multiple bottlenecks here, and in the late 19th century, for the first time, the energy system of the industrialized world was reliant on workers who could withhold their labor and block a key resource. This translated directly into political power.
Long before politicians mewled helplessly about the power of "Big Oil", carbon-based fuels were shaping our very political, legal, intellectual, and physical structures. It was, for instance, coal miners who brought us the right to vote. Israel's founding had a lot to do with British fears of Palestinian labor unrest in coastal energy complexes. And the European Community was a post-WWII experiment to switch that continent to oil, a task begun before World War I by British conservatives to defeat their domestic political opponents. Glass-Steagall crimped financial flows, partially at the behest of the oil industry. In fact, you can't understand modern democratic or third world political structures without understanding energy, and particularly, coal and oil. That's the contention of Tim Mitchell's new book, Carbon Democracy Political Power in the Age of Oil, a history of the relationship between carbon-based fueling sources and modern political systems. It's a book that tackles a really big subject, in a sweeping but readable fashion, and after reading it, it's hard to imagine thinking about political power the same way again.
The use of coal and oil in the context of industrialization has always been about who has the power to profit from the surplus these energy forms produce, but until now, no one has pulled the various historical details together into a historical narrative laying bare the fascinating power dynamics behind the rise of Western political systems and their relationship with energy. Carbon Democracy is an examination of our civilization's 400 hundred year use of carbon-based energy fueling sources, and the political systems that grew up intertwined with them. Rather than presenting energy and democracy as separate things, like a battery and a device, Mitchell discusses the political architecture of the Western world and the developing world as inherently tied to fueling sources. The thesis is that elites have always sought to maximize not the amount of energy they could extract and use, but the profit stream from those energy sources. They struggled to ensure they would be able to burn carbon and profit, without having to rely on the people who extract and burned it for them. Carbon-based fuels thus cannot be understood except in the context of labor, imperialism and democracy.
Mitchell points out that the problem of oil has never, until recently, been that it is a scarce commodity, but that it is a surplus commodity. We had too much of it. And the central problem that this created was now how to find more of it, but how to ensure that oil cartels profiting from high oil prices could make sure that very few new oil finds, especially from the massive fields in the Middle East, came online. Far from a hardy band of entrepreneurs searching for more oil, the story of oil is one of parasitic cartels manipulating governments and inventing concepts like mandates, self-determination, and national security to ensure they could retain high profits selling a widely available commodity. But Mitchell takes the story much deeper than Yergen did, because Yergen's book is fundamentally a fairy tale that skirts over questions of labor and colonialism.
Mitchell goes back before the widespread use of oil, to the industrialization of England and England's use of carbon-based fuels, like forests, peat, and coal. Industrialization demanded two seemingly contradictory factors - huge new tracts of land to grow industrial raw materials like cotton and high energy food crops like sugar, and far more centralized urban centers for manufacturing. What happened, of course, is that England simply acquired colonies with large land tracts overseas, using slave labor to harvest necessary commodities, while becoming an urban society in its core areas. Eventually, England began using coal to fuel its economy, leading to substantial economic growth and imperial strength. Coal, though, presented a challenge to the governing elites, since the characteristics of coal, with its labor intensive extraction methods, were quite vulnerable to strikes. Coal was hard to transport, and miners operated underground in a collaborative manner. Once on the surface, coal had to be moved by fixed networks of trains. There were multiple bottlenecks here, and in the late 19th century, for the first time, the energy system of the industrialized world was reliant on workers who could withhold their labor and block a key resource. This translated directly into political power.
I'm not sure I buy completely the notion that the transition to oil, and the creation of the European Coal and Steel Community, was mainly about crushing labor, but the article is worth a read (and so is the book, probably) Wind power
http://www.amazon.com/The-Big-Rich-Greatest-Fortunes/dp/1594201994
you are the media you consume.
I wrote this a while back after Romney got the nom. In light of the blizzard of bullshit coming at us in the next few months I thought I would put it out now. ______ Now that the Republican primary circus is over, I started to think about what it would mean to vote for Obama... Since mostly we hear from the daily hypocrisies of Mitt and friends, I thought we should examine "our guy" on a few issues with a bit more scrutiny than we hear from the "progressive left", which seems to be little or none at all. Instead of scrutiny, the usual arguments in favor of another Obama presidency are made: We must stop fanatics; it would be better than the fanatics--he's the last line of defense from the corporate barbarians--and of course the Supreme Court. It all makes a terrible kind of sense and I agree completely with Garry Wills who described the Republican primaries as " a revolting combination of con men & fanatics-- "the current primary race has become a demonstration that the Republican party does not deserve serious consideration for public office."
I wrote this a while back after Romney got the nom. In light of the blizzard of bullshit coming at us in the next few months I thought I would put it out now.
______
Now that the Republican primary circus is over, I started to think about what it would mean to vote for Obama...
Since mostly we hear from the daily hypocrisies of Mitt and friends, I thought we should examine "our guy" on a few issues with a bit more scrutiny than we hear from the "progressive left", which seems to be little or none at all.
Instead of scrutiny, the usual arguments in favor of another Obama presidency are made: We must stop fanatics; it would be better than the fanatics--he's the last line of defense from the corporate barbarians--and of course the Supreme Court. It all makes a terrible kind of sense and I agree completely with Garry Wills who described the Republican primaries as " a revolting combination of con men & fanatics-- "the current primary race has become a demonstration that the Republican party does not deserve serious consideration for public office."
John Cusack Interviews Law Professor Jonathan Turley About Obama Administration's War On the Constitution
James Madison is often quoted for his observation that if all men were angels, no government would be necessary. And what he was saying is that you have to create a system of law that has checks and balances so that even imperfect human beings are restrained from doing much harm. Madison and other framers did not want to rely on the promises of good motivations or good intents from the government. They created a system where no branch had enough authority to govern alone -- a system of shared and balanced powers. So what Obama's doing is to rewrite the most fundamental principle of the US Constitution. The whole point of the Holder speech was that we're really good guys who take this seriously, and you can trust us. That's exactly the argument the framers rejected, the "trust me" principle of government. You'll notice when Romney was asked about this, he said, "I would've signed the same law, because I trust Obama to do the right thing." They're both using the very argument that the framers warned citizens never to accept from their government. CUSACK: So basically, it comes down to, again, just political expediency and aesthetics. So as long as we have friendly aesthetics and likable people, we can do whatever we want. Who cares what the policy is or the implications for the future.
James Madison is often quoted for his observation that if all men were angels, no government would be necessary. And what he was saying is that you have to create a system of law that has checks and balances so that even imperfect human beings are restrained from doing much harm. Madison and other framers did not want to rely on the promises of good motivations or good intents from the government. They created a system where no branch had enough authority to govern alone -- a system of shared and balanced powers.
So what Obama's doing is to rewrite the most fundamental principle of the US Constitution. The whole point of the Holder speech was that we're really good guys who take this seriously, and you can trust us. That's exactly the argument the framers rejected, the "trust me" principle of government. You'll notice when Romney was asked about this, he said, "I would've signed the same law, because I trust Obama to do the right thing." They're both using the very argument that the framers warned citizens never to accept from their government.
CUSACK: So basically, it comes down to, again, just political expediency and aesthetics. So as long as we have friendly aesthetics and likable people, we can do whatever we want. Who cares what the policy is or the implications for the future.
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