by afew
Wed Jan 16th, 2013 at 10:44:50 AM EST
Former FMI man Ashoka Mody asks on Project Syndicate if the European core is not cracking.
A Breach in the Eurozone Dike by Ashoka Mody - Project Syndicate
The third stage of the eurozone crisis will arrive when the economic strength of the core is in doubt. Those very doubts undermine the credibility of the safety net that has been supporting the European periphery.
A solution to the eurozone crisis that relies on Germany has always been politically uncertain. It may soon become economically untenable.
And cites poor growth prospects for Germany and the Netherlands.
A Breach in the Eurozone Dike by Ashoka Mody - Project Syndicate
The Bundesbank has lowered its forecast for German annual GDP growth in 2013 to 0.4%. The Central Bank of the Netherlands expects Dutch GDP to shrink by -0.5% this year – and to contract further in 2014.
He recalls that the FMI forecast considerably higher growth than that, but, as we all know since Olivier Blanchard and Daniel Leigh discovered the FMI had got the multipliers and therefore the growth forecasts wrong, FMI forecasts were as far out as usual. Reading the European Tribune over the past few years would have sufficed to understand that forced austerity in the service of monetarist policies would depress demand and produce recession, including in the core, including in Germany.
As Mody points out, German growth in 2010 was due to exceptional Chinese demand:
A Breach in the Eurozone Dike by Ashoka Mody - Project SyndicateEurope does not have its own growth engine. The German rebound was initially robust because world trade rose rapidly after a precipitous fall. China’s voracious appetite for German cars and machines provided the needed boost, even as Germany’s traditional trade partners in Europe struggled.
Europe does not have its own growth engine. Not if it consists of a brilliant plan for all European economies to become ferociously export-oriented, no.
But what would the outlines of a European "sustainable" growth engine be?