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Italian Political Elections Special

by de Gondi Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 01:38:38 AM EST

General elections are underway in Italy on February 24 and 25. Both the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies will be completely renewed while Regional elections are also being held in Lombardy, Lazio and Molise. With booths closed at 10 PM Sunday evening, turnout has decreased by more than 6 % nationally compared to the previous general elections (Update- final data: -7,38%). However in the three regions where regional elections are being held, turnout has been markedly superior to past elections, nearly 10% higher.

Italian elections open thread - afew


While weather may be a contributing factor, the high turnout in the aforementioned three regions, despite the weather, could indicate a strong political interest of voters where law allows them to effectively express their preferences. In fact, the past three general elections have been held with the so-called Porcellum electoral law which disenfranchised voters of their right to pick their representatives. With the present law, parties present blocked lists of candidates and the voter may only put his or her mark on a party or coalition symbol. A candidate may be in any number of lists throughout the peninsula according to coalition strategy, often arcane. Therefore candidates, whether elected or not, have no need or urgency to establish an electoral bond with the citizens that they will eventually represent. In contrast, in regional elections, candidates must get out and press flesh to earn people's votes. It's public meetings, local rallies and debates that motivate and empower people to participate.

The national scene was particularly depressing. Ruefully referred to as the 9-and-a-half weeks campaign, insults and gaffes, promises and gimmicks passively monopolized attention. It was basically a brawl between four major antagonists, each in his own setting, and two minor contenders of a lesser god, 9 ½ weeks without a single direct confrontation.  

There are 169 parties participating in the elections, In Lazio there are 25 parties running for the Chamber, 28 for the Senate and 23 for the local regional elections. Most of these parties form coalitions. Berlusconi's coalition here consists of nine parties while the Democratic Party is allied with another three parties. Monti's coalition consists of three parties, while Beppe Grillo and Antonio Ingroia, respectively presidents of the Cinque Stelle Movement and the Civic Revolution, are running alone.

Monti and Grillo have in common that none of their party candidates has ever been elected to national office nor been subject to criminal investigations or indictments. Their respective programs have less in common both in style and content.

There has been significant renewal within the Democratic Party, the only party that actually held national primaries to choose candidates to get around the Porcellum law.

Berlusconi's rightwing coalition has renewed its bench with rookies through force of circumstances: it had to retire its more sordid elements due to criminal investigations, public outcry and defection. This may explain his message on Saturday when candidates are legally bound to silence: he declared that the judiciary branch was worse than the Sicilian mafia. If the message was addressed to someone, it hasn't been heeded. Turnout in Sicily, Campania and Calabria is at a record low.

Whatever the results there will be a generational turnover in the next legislature.

Booths close at 3 PM on Monday. There will be further updates and sundry thoughts upcoming. We're all looking forward to some good debates in the comments below as developments roll in. For some previous informative and interesting comments see the weekend thread in the Newsroom.

Display:
The Pigsty Law

(Reuters) - So bad it is universally known as the "pigsty", Italy's electoral law is at the center of political instability that is stoking fears the euro zone's third-largest economy could topple into a Greek-style debt crisis.

Market jitters over whether Italy is heading for a default that would probably destroy the euro have been aggravated by uncertainty over what will happen when respected technocrat Prime Minister Mario Monti steps down for elections next spring.

Those worries are compounded by confusion over what electoral system will be used, with time running out for politicians to keep years of promises to replace the law.

The remarkably resilient "porcellum" or pigsty law was passed in 2005. It robs the electorate of the power to choose candidates directly, voting instead for a fixed list selected by party leaders under a proportional system.


I wondered if 'porcellum' might have anything to do with pork. :-) How apt! At least the depth of the corruption is openly acknowledged. In the USA we do things slightly more subtly and with much more pretense.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 01:34:02 AM EST
There was some coverage on the law back in 2005-2006, for example here and here and here. The name "porcellum" comes from a remark by the author of the bill, the leghista Roberto Calderoli, who called it "un vero porcata" which means "a downright filthy trick."

Corruption is a major issue in this campaign which I regret not having yet brought up. It is certainly one of the reasons for high voter turnout in Lazio and Lombardy where the regional governments were forced to resign over rampant corruption, thus provoking early elections.

During the annual inaugural address of the Corte dei Conti on February 21st, the Milan prosecutor Antonio Caruso declared,


«[...]la piaga della corruzione, ben più grave rispetto a 20 anni fa, si é ormai annidata nel profondo del tessuto sociale e costituisce un'intollerabile distorsione del sistema».

Gli episodi corruttivi e gli illeciti contro la pubblica amministrazione, spiega il procuratore, «sono divenuti ormai quasi una costante di ogni tipo di illegalità, alcuni anche collegati alla criminalità organizzata». Caruso, quindi, conclude: «Il maggior prodotto della corruzione é soprattutto quello etico e civile, perché alimenta una mentalità sociale sempre più incline a considerare lo spazio pubblico come preda degli interessi personali».

"[...] the gaping wound of corruption, far worse than 20 years ago [tangentopoli which brought down the so-called first republic], has deeply rooted itself in the fabric of society and constitutes an intolerable distortion of the system."

Episodes of corruption and crimes against the public administration, the prosecutor explained, "have almost become a constant of any type of illegality, some connected to organized crime." Caruso then concluded: "The major consequence of corruption is above all ethical and civil, because it feeds a social mentality always more inclined to consider the public space as prey to personal interests."

Clean Hands did result in a transitional government and a new electoral law. Unfortunately, one of the worst corruptors of the "first" republic, Silvio Berlusconi, was voted in in a surprise upset of electoral prognostics that had the Left as a sure win. His government quickly fell apart, ushering in the first Prodi government in 1996 elections. Prodi promptly opened a line of credit for Berlusconi that led to his triumph in 2001.

I would be cautious about previsions until the final tally tonight even though Sunday's low voter turnout would presumably penalize the Right.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 06:24:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the reasons for high voter turnout in Lazio and Lombardy where the regional governments were forced to resign over rampant corruption, thus provoking early elections

Even so, there seems to be a dead heat between the centre-right and centre-left candidates in Lombardy (though that's a change from the overwhelming majority of the PdL- and Lega-supported Roberto Formigoni in 2010).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 10:01:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Lega Nord was racked by corruption scandals but has managed to present itself with a clean slate for the regional elections. After Bossi, Maroni has created a cleaner image with his party shake up and opening up to dissent such as Tosi.

Lombardy is the key region for them and it is highly significant that it is their leader, Roberto Maroni, who is running for governor. Since Maroni has been in national government- as Minister of the Interior- he is not associated with the outgoing Formigoni giunta. That the Lega is putting their secretary on the line is also a sign of weakness- and the fact that he is running neck-to-neck with the Civic List head Ambrosoli is a further sign that the Lega Nord has yet to recover from the Bossi scandals.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 10:45:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Eurointelligence e-mail news briefing Monday morning:

The latest private polls have been made public by Italian journalist, Fabrizio Rondolino, on his private Facebook page, then published by several influential blogs, despite the pre-electoral blackout. Every poll, from Mannheimer to Ghisleri, put the centre-left coalition at between 32.7% and 36%, the centre-right between 28% and 30%, Beppe Grillo between 17% and 20.7%, and Mario Monti between 10% and 14%. The rise of Grillo is clearly the most important political event since the rise of Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia, with the Northern League, in 1994.  
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 02:00:07 AM EST
See also considerable discussion in the weekend Newsroom.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 02:24:00 AM EST
On one hand, the strategy of the Cinque Stelle Movement and Monti's list to run with "clean" candidates, the Democratic Party's primaries, and Berlusconi's retirement of more sordid candidates all indicate to me that a list vote doesn't exempt candidates from voter pressure. On the other hand, as the USA and UK experience has shown, crooked politicians can just as easily sustain themselves in power as individual candidates, too, relying on partisan majorities and gerrymandering and a split opposition; and the end result can be very un-representative. It could also be said that the bonus for the biggest party list is an element of the Italian system which actually increases pressure to form coalitions and thus reduces competition.

All of the above doesn't mean that I wouldn't endorse a change of Italian electoral law to include more competition at individual level (be it an Irish-style multi-choice system or a German-style compensated mixed system), just that I see the key problems differently.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 02:44:32 AM EST
Forgot to note: I did some minor edits in the diary (For example "on the contrary" -> "in contrast").

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 02:45:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks!
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 04:00:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A brief response which perhaps I'll later elaborate in an update. The Porcellum law introduced the legal concept of "coalition." It however has been seen as a fundamental weakness of the electoral law. Since coalitions are formed before elections to better compete for the bonus of seats in the Chamber, they have not proven to be very effective in governing after the elections. In the past two legislatures the ruling coalitions slowly imploded. The Prodi experience lasted only two years while the recent Berlusconi coalition collapsed in late 2010 with Fini's exit but continued to occupy power in a state of national paralysis held together by Berlusconi's well known capacity to entice opposition members to join his fold. Italy spent all of 2011 in an executive and legislative limbo while the international crises raged on. A change in government was long overdue and when Monti was mandated to form a parliamentary majority, he could do no more than take drastic and highly unpopular measures.

This is aggravated by an electoral system that gives a clear bonus on a national level for the Chamber while the Senate bonus is regional (first past the post takes 55% minimum). A coalition will therefore have a strong majority in the Chamber and perhaps no more than a one vote majority in the Senate as happened to Prodi in 2006. Today's elections may actually deadlock the Senate.

This would be fine were the Senate and the Chamber not nearly identical in their constitutional functions. In order for a law to pass it must pass the two legislative bodies, as in many nations. However, a simple and minor change in one house will send the law back to the other house in a sort of ping pong game. Naturally parties or coalitions will exploit this mechanism to their advantage when possible. In order to get around this, governments resort to decree laws that are then converted into law through the use of confidence votes. In this way many laws are badly written in backrooms and simply imposed on the legislative branch without debate and the possibility of modification. The legislative branch has simply become a rubber stamp office.

In effect both the electoral law and the post-electoral reality favour corruption and lack of a accountability, which I'm quite sure was exactly what Berlusconi had in mind when he imposed the law just before the 2006 elections.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 04:56:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
de Gondi:
In the past two legislatures the ruling coalitions slowly imploded.

The fundamental flaw would seem to be that people elected on a list are allowed to jump ship. This is fundamentally undemocratic since they are not elected in their own name.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 05:15:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not necessarily. According to the constitution an elected official is only responsible towards his conscious and has no legally binding provision to condition his right to free expression and choice.

Further, if the coalition is not up to carrying out its mandate or promises, a member of the coalition can just as well pull out of the coalition.

Fini and company got sick and damned tired of a government that spent the nation's time passing personal laws and showing off in public.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 06:32:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
only responsible towards his conscious

and/or the highest bidder.

Did they amend the constitution when they introduced full-list proportional? ... I thought not. That constitutional provision makes no sense with the current system, which has fallen prey to the condottiere tradition.

The fact that this provision enabled the fall of Berlu is a very thin post-hoc justification.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 07:35:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
1948. From day one.

Berlusconi is under investigation for buying deputies and senators in 2008. Actually, he may have been indicted recently.

The provision has nothing to do with Berlusconi's resignation. He simply no longer had a majority in parliament and preferred to resign rather than face a vote of no confidence. He had, anyway, bought himself a new majority when Fini and others pulled out in 2010- the hilarious charade of the quack medicine promoter Domenico Scilipoti and his "Party of Responsibility." Scilipoti was just another one of those deputies chosen by the incautious De Pietro.

No one nor any party has ever been obliged to stay in a coalition since the birth of the Republic. Any law of that nature would be unconstitutional.  

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 08:09:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
de Gondi and eurogreen: is and ought be.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 11:28:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Finland also has an interesting system with proportional distribution between lists and sorting the lists in strict accordance with number of preference votes. So the party does not affect the order of elected candidates, only access to be on the ballot or not.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!
by A swedish kind of death on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 05:05:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In Italy the order of the candidates on lists are effected by the fact that a candidate may appear on any number of lists. Since avatars are not legal entities nor alleged to exist, the party has leeway in jockeying positions in lists after the elections. Attempts to modify this with a "one candidate-one list" restriction by referendum were struck down by the Court.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 05:22:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In Sweden (and thus presumably Finland) a candidate can in theory be on more then one list, but it would probably lead to being kicked out of (at least) one party and one list as soon as it is found out.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!
by A swedish kind of death on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 06:06:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the multiple lists de Gondi means are regional lists: if I am not mistaken, Italy's proportional vote is actually proportional for all the regions separately.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 09:46:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
For the Chamber of Deputies it's proportional on the national level but regional for the Senate.

To clarify, what I mean, a candidate can run in as many regions as the coalition wants.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 09:49:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I was in Bolzano for half an hour yesterday, and noticed a fair number of posters for separatist parties, only in German, with messages like "Do what's right for us, not for Italy". On the other hand, the Freiheitlichen were the only party of any kind to advertise in all three languages.
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 03:24:49 AM EST
three languages?
by stevesim on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 06:15:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the Ladin language; official third language of the province:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ladin_language

"Ladin is an officially recognised language, taught in schools and used in public offices (in written as well as spoken form). The following municipalities of South Tyrol have a majority of Ladin speakers:"

4.53% of the population is supposed to be speaking it.

by IM on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 06:21:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Italian, German, and Ladin. Example (as you can see, they quickly revert to German):

by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 06:21:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Freistaat Südtirol - Free State South Tyrol is of course separatist.

The official name is Autonome Provinz Bozen - Südtirol or Land Südtirol.

by IM on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 06:29:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But I don't think anyone else uses the separatist version in Italian....
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 06:31:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A clever appeal to Lega Nord voters`?

Sudtirolo though does seems to be used more in italian.

by IM on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 06:33:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
thanks guys.  I will be able to go to sleep tonight a little smarter thanks to you.  (it's a French saying)
by stevesim on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 04:50:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That is a minor thing to watch for: Will the nominally separatist but de facto status quo SVP hold on or will the separatist parties in South Tyrolia gain?
by IM on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 05:26:12 AM EST
SVP is in the Leftist coalition, so it will pass without problem. It would have been different had it been running on its own.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 05:39:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Cardinal Keith O'Brien has resigned today. His resignation was immediately accepted by the Pope.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 08:13:40 AM EST
can you say....dominoes?

dominatrixoes?

"We can all be prosperous but we can't all be rich." Ian Welsh

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 09:51:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Berlusconi's coalition here consists of nine parties

La Repubblica lists 12: PDL, Lega Nord, Fratelli d'Italia, La Destra, Grande Sud, Basta Tasse, Cantiere Popolare, Intesa Popolare, Liberi per una Italia Equa, Moderati in Rivoluzione, Partito dei Siciliani, and Partito Pensionati (unlike Israel, the latter hasn't merged with a marijuana legalisation party, as they did in Israel some years ago, resulting in the most entertaining TV ads - and no votes).

by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 08:46:48 AM EST
I wrote the word "here" to stress Lazio. There are after all 169 parties distributed throughout Italy. Each region will have its own variant of the core coalition which will likely be represented in parliament: in the case of the Berlusconi coalition that parties elected would be PDL, Lega Nord, La Destra and maybe Fratelli d'Italia. A party within a coalition has a lower quorum to meet than if it runs alone.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 09:05:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
First exit poll
Ore 15,00. Camera: Bersani avanti, Pdl secondo, Grillo al 19%. Secondo i primi instant pool di Sky TG24-Tecnè alla Camera il Pd è al 29,5%, il Pdl al 21,5%, Il Movimento a 5 stelle al 19%. Scelta Civica di Monti al 7%, Udc al 2%, Fli allo 0,5 per cento. Rivoluzione civile si attesta al 3,5%, Sel al 4%, Fare per fermare il declino all'1,5 per cento.
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 09:03:13 AM EST
Excellent! Berlu trailing by 8 points, with Grillo on his heels!

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 09:05:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Repubblica has 34% PD, 29% Berlu, and 19% Grillo.

Inside the coalitions, Bersani has 29% PD, 4% Sinistra ecologia and the others insignificant. Berlu has 21.5% PDL, 5% Lega.

by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 09:09:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Translated into concrete terms that means the PD will have a majority in the Chamber but it is too early to figure out the Senate. Effectively, the Left held and increased slightly over previous polls. Ingroia's Rivoluzione civile is out.

It will all depend on the Senate, if Bersani can have a majority together with Monti and/or Grillo.

Exit polls can be terribly misleading.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 09:15:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I did a rough count on the Senate.

The PD coalition has 130, and needs about 158 (?) for a majority.

By picking up Campania +6, Sicilia +7, Piemonte +4, ... total gain of 24 if they don't win Lombardia. Or 37 if they do.

So yeah, they may have both Houses, but only if they win Lombardia : exit polls give 37%/37%...

The good news is that the right loses control of the Senate.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 10:05:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Corriere della Sera at the moment (it's changing constantly):

Center-left 35-37%, Center-right 29-31%, M5S 19-21%, Monti 8-10%, Ingroia 2-3%.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 09:38:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
here.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 09:06:51 AM EST
Repubblica has detailed projections for the camera and will have for the Senate.
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 09:11:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Senate poll is out: 37% Bersani, 31% Berlu, 9% Monti, 17.5% Grillo
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 09:12:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That can only mean a Bersani-Grillo government. It's the only solution with a solid progressive majority. The prospects of a Bersani-Berlusconi coalition would be a total disaster.

That's going to be fun. They'll have to do it well if they don't want the extreme Right back in power in a short time.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 09:20:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But haven't Grillo's lot pledged not to enter government?

On these numbers, the PD coalition should have a majority in the House, yes?  But not in the Senate, where they will need 5* approval (or someone else's) to pass any legislation, yes?

Would PD + Monti give a majority in the Senate? ... I hope not.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 09:26:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
According to the exit polls, no. As for Grillo one can't get into politics and then refuse to do politics, once the dust has settled. Grillo has an enormous responsibility. He's no Radical party with 4 or 6%. He's 19%, the third force in parliament.

Campaigning is one thing. Governing is another. In my opinion, this is his only chance and he better play it well. If he refuses to participate, we might as well call for new elections without wasting time.

Interesting the collapse of the Lega Nord. Let's hope Ambrosoli wins in Lombardy.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 09:37:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Campaigning is one thing. Governing is another. In my opinion, this is his only chance and he better play it well. If he refuses to participate,

he can't run for office because his own rules... he was deemed culpable in a car accident years ago.

5* will pull the overton window leftwards from bersani, and keep the latter more honest.

beppe was on tv today, looking strangely diconsolate, even melancholy.

could be he's exhausted from his tour yelling his lungs out all over italy, or maybe someone took him in a backroom and explained to him what might happen if he gets his wish for the political caste to all fire themselves and go home for good.

the bathos was surprising, considering his jubilance lately.


"We can all be prosperous but we can't all be rich." Ian Welsh

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 10:00:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think eurogreen and de Gondi used confusing language but meant M5S's entry into government, rather than Beppe Grillo's entry into parliament.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 10:03:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The worst outcome would be a leaderless and directionless 5* movement. Let's hope that their House and, especially, Senate caucuses can hold a well-defined line.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 10:07:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the worst outcome would be for PD to choose a Grand Coalition "for the sake of stability", even without Berlusconi (that is the option where B officially hands over to some minion of his who is more acceptable to PD). Is that a possibility on Bersani's part?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 10:12:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well that can be difficult on Bersani's part, too. He wasn't too positive about Grillo before the elections, either:

Is Beppe Grillo the bogeyman a disaster waiting to happen, or can his activist army heal Italy? | World news | The Observer

"With him we'll be worse off than Greece - we will say goodbye to democracy," warned Bersani.


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 09:42:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
PD down a bit (32 -> 30)
Berlu down a lot (37 -> 22)
La Lega down (8 -> 5)
Grillo's lot 19%
Monti's lot 10%
Green left ... ? (3-> 2 to 4?)
Ingroia : Threshold! 3.5%??


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 09:24:01 AM EST
By exit polls Ingroia is out while SEL is in with the PD.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 09:42:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Grillo's lot 19%
Monti's lot 10%
More or less as expected. Grillo higher than the average polls, which I think had him at 15%.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 10:19:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
16-17%

Monti on the other hand was at 14% in the polls:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_Italian_general_election,_2013

by IM on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 10:25:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
@FGoria
According to RAI projections, Grillo's M5S is the first party in Italian Senate #italyvote #elezioni2013


I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 10:24:03 AM EST
RAI has the right winning the Senate.

Completely out of line with all other exit polls.

Interesting...

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 10:38:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
ITALIAN ELECTIONS 2013
"ISTITUTO PIEPOLI / RAI" FORECAST FOR THE SENATE at 4,24 pm - PDL-LEGA 31%, PD-SEL 29,5%, M5S 25,1%, MONTI 9,6% INGROIA 1,8% #italyvote


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 10:39:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
La Stampa liveblog:

>RESULTS ARE UNCERTAIN, FORECASTS ARE IN CONTRAST #italyvote
Piepoli: "At the Senate Grillo is first party with 25% Center Right has 31,6%, Center Left 29,4, Monti 9,2"<

Hmm.

by IM on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 10:45:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Any projection at this point for the Senate is a waste of time. It can only be done locally on a regional level since the electoral bonus is decided in each region for the Senate. Since there are apparently four major players vying for the 8% minimum to gain entry to the Senate- always referred to 8% in each single region- and have the relative majority so as to take 55% of the seats in that region, there is really no way to make previsions until significant results are tallied later in the evening.

We can be relatively certain that three groups will have Senators in all the regions: Bersani, Berlusconi and Grillo while Monti is the wild card. At 9-10% it is very difficult to calculate how many Senators he will have.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 10:58:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Monti : I'd say less than ten. In smaller regions he gets zero, and even in the bigger ones he can't get more than 2.

Can 5* win any regions though? At 25% nationally, that seems within reach.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 11:02:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
do they get from the exit polls to those projections?

... Perhaps by analysing the first official returns, from a relatively insignificant number of votes. It's not the raw numbers that are interesting at this stage of the count, but how they vary from the last election, that will give a good analyst a fairly accurate hunch from about now.

So if these RAI fellows are any good, that's a huge shift from PD to 5* which didn't show in the exit polls.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 10:48:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
that even the best analysts can't really know the demography of the 5* vote because they don't have any data to compare with.

These things are done by comparing polling places. There are none to compare for 5*.

The first couple of million votes have been counted, and give PD 35%, and Berlu and Grillo about 25% each. The analysts know, I presume, that the PD will go down, and Berlu will go up, when the late-reporting polling places come in. But do they really know what will happen to the Grillo vote?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 10:54:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
and predict that 5* will be lower, and PD higher, than the current projections.

As far as I can see, they are looking at 5*'s current 25% of the early count, and since they have no data to change it, are predicting it will hold until the end of the count. Without really having a clue.

But I'm guessing that if the early-reporting places are more favourable to the left in general, and the late-reporting places more favourable to the right, then the late-reporting "conservative" polling places will not respect the same split of progressive votes as the earlier reporting ones; i.e. that the progressive voters of the more conservative areas may be more "conservative" and tend to stay with the PD, rather than switching to 5*.

But what do I know. A big fat nothing.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 11:09:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
... and the 5pm revision of RAI's projection is trending that way :

PD       30.1
Berlu   31.3
Grillo  24.6
Monti   9.4

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 11:19:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I thought the same thing, but the shift is so small that it could be a measurement error.
by IM on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 11:23:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
are only a couple of percent of votes, but they are absolutely bloody terrifying.

Lots of three-way competitions. Could lead to a Berlusconi landslide. Not my fault if it happens, but you read it here first.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 11:27:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No way, I will shoot the messenger. :-)
by IM on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 11:30:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
PD       31.0
Berlu   30.4
Grillo  24.4
Monti   9.5

Remeber where you saw it first...

The stout soprano hasn't even had her dinner yet.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 02:25:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
@stephanfaris
Bersani's deputy RT @electionista PD's Letta says if results confirm projections, then election will need to be repeated.
W.T.F.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 10:52:24 AM EST
That's on the principle that when you don't get the answer you want, you repeat the question. But this is supposed to be democracy, rather than a police interrogation.

No, a PD/5* coalition would still be fine. The right can't win a majority in the Senate, surely!

Or perhaps it can, since if 5* is over-performing by taking votes from the PD, that could enable the right to keep the regions they already hold in the Senate.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 10:59:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No, a PD/5* coalition would still be fine. The right can't win a majority in the Senate, surely!
What this exposes is that the PD is willing to apply a sanitary cordon to Grillo. They would rather ally themselves with Burlesqueoni, and what they really wanted was an alliance with Monti.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 11:01:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Wasn't that to be expected? Grillo is unserious after all. In a way you don't get to be by massive corruption, Mafia ties, funding of right wing terrorists, prostitution of minors and destroying the economy.

Von überall könnte das Volk, Urbrut alles Undemokratischen, Zelle des Terrors, über die gewählten Hüter von Wachstum und Wohlstand® kommen. - flatter
by generic on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 11:08:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
@cigolo
Letta (PD): se confermato dato Senato è un voto "brutalmente contro Europa, Germania ed euro, avrà ripercussioni gravissime"
If confirmed, the Senate data is a vote "brutally against Europe, against Germany and against the Euro, it will have very serious repercussions".

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 11:41:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
show Berlu in the lead.

Jesus wept.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 11:56:46 AM EST
is losing her first major election test in 2013.
by redstar on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 12:08:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes yes.

Interestingly the so-called centre-left seems to be the party of Angie.

Truth being told, Berlu winning would be an affirmation of sovereignty from the Italians. Things are so screwed up that I have some sympathy for Berlu.

Did not follow Italian elections, but my superficial view was: 5* better than berlu. berlu better than PD. Saddens me to say.

by cagatacos on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 12:20:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You shouldn't take Berlu's sovereignist rhetoric at face value (he changes and changed positions with 180 degree turns) and shouldn't make a bet that the aftermath of Berlu wouldn't be much worse austerianism than Monti.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 12:33:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I know. The guy deserves no trust.

But that is not my point. The point is the right of Italians to choose their government. If I recall well, Berlu fell mostly because he became out of line with Brussels.

There are many good reasons he should not be where he is (probably many good reasons to throw him in jail). But surely the main reason is not that he is out of line with Brussels.

Whatever ascertains the supremacy of democracy over technocracy is good for me.

Makes me weep that we are at this stage. Makes me weep that I find some kind of solace in this creep winning.

by cagatacos on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 12:42:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Brussels is anything but Technocracy. They keep pushing an agenda that is squarely at odds with what we know of how economics work, and that keep being refuted by facts.

It's Dogmocracy or Ideologicracy if you wish, but not Techno by any stretch of the imagination. A Technocracy would have had a coordinated Keynesian stimulus faster than you can say ECB.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 01:15:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ITALIAN ELECTIONS 2013
17.36Marco Zatterin @STRANEUROPAFor foreign friends. @riotta says: High chamber (Senato). Silvio 138 seats; Bersani 104; Grillo 54; Monti 17. Seats to rule: 158. #italyvote


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 12:02:10 PM EST
ITALIAN ELECTIONS 2013
#italyvote The voters of Grillo lie to exit polls because they consider press and journalists too close to power and politics  di Francesca Sforza 18.04 Commento


It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 12:06:34 PM EST
Grillo appears to be ahead in the Sicily Senate count.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 12:16:39 PM EST
Follow the Minister of Interior site for electoral returns. Berlusconi is way ahead in Sicily, Grillo second, at 50% of votes counted.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 12:23:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually not way ahead but 3,5% is a pretty good lead.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 12:26:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now the chamber votes are more than half counted (35,219 of 61,446 precints), with Lombardy and Lazio among the laggards in the count, and Berlu trending upwards in the last few minutes:

Bersani 30.84%
Berlusconi 27.85%
Grillo 25.58%
Monti 10.45%
Ingroia 2.25%

In the senate vote, in Lombardy, at two-thirds counted, Berlu has a high lead: 38.26% while the next is Bersani at 29.50%.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 02:34:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Looks second to me

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 12:25:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
D'oh

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 12:26:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nobody is talking about Monti anymore.
by IM on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 12:38:57 PM EST
I think I'll repeat what I said before. The only durable government will be an alliance between Bersani and Grillo. Berlusconi will have the relative majority in the Senate but Bersani and Grillo together would have a solid majority in the Senate to govern. The Chamber of Deputies is solidly in the hands of Bersani. Grillo is the second party in the Chamber.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 01:02:54 PM EST
But what about the relative abilities to game the outcome of the voting, as in Florida in 2000 and Ohio in 2004? Given the system it would seem even easier in Italy with advantage to B. It would seem that the early calls for a do-over are playing to that possibility. When something like that happens in the US accepting the corrupt outcome is always justified as 'preserving the US democratic system', which, arguably, it does.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 01:30:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In Molise regional elections are due to a recall. I don't see much vote rigging this time. There is the phenomena of vote selling but it appears less than usual.

Grillo despite all the hype represents progressive values that the Left should have promoted all these years and did not. In the past Grillo tried to reform the PD- he even ran for party secretary once! Where the Cinque Stelle Movement now governs they appear realist enough to affront the disastrous situations they inherited.

So I don't see why they can't form a government with the PD.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 01:38:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How committed is Bersani to austerity? Would he be willing to pick a fight with the European centre? I doubt Grillo's party could survive voting for an austerity budget.

Von überall könnte das Volk, Urbrut alles Undemokratischen, Zelle des Terrors, über die gewählten Hüter von Wachstum und Wohlstand® kommen. - flatter
by generic on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 02:23:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
generic:
How committed is Bersani to austerity?

depends whether it's 'like monti' or 'not like monti' day.

kinder gentler austerity-lite?

he has a lot of 'splainin to do with the MPS banking meltdown, conviently knocked off the front page by the Boys in Black Popery' scandal and the elections.

i don't see how 5* and PD have a hope unless PD does a volte-face of biblical proportions. beppe's nick for bersdani is the 'evil wizard'.

this could be opera buffa (even more than usual) time.

perhaps the 5*ers will do more good with significant abstentions for votes rather than get down in the muck with the others.

how do you like your popcorn? ever try it with nutritional yeast sprinkled on it? a dash of tamari and you're good to go.

"We can all be prosperous but we can't all be rich." Ian Welsh

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 04:43:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
when you wrote that, because the clever analysts were predicting a Berlu plurality in the House.
But they were wrong, it seems (or at least, they have changed their minds since then)

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 03:41:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ITALIAN ELECTIONS 2013

"Beppe Grillo and his Five Star Movement have had a meteoric rise, from obscurity to placing third in the polls in the space of just three years. He is truly a new breed: an anti-establishment politician who co-ordinates online and appeals to voters across the political spectrum. Our survey of almost 2,000 online supporters reveals that the defining feature of those who support him is rock-bottom levels of trust in political and commercial institutions.

"These results mean that he, and the social media politics he has pioneered, can no longer be dismissed by his detractors as gimmickry. On social media, Grillo is the most followed politician in Europe: he has four times as many Twitter followers than David Cameron and he uses that enormous following to mobilise, recruit and get the vote out. This has allowed him to reach out to people usually uninterested in politics.

"Many of the concerns of Grillo's supporters are shared by people across Europe and are reflected in declining trust in political institutions, falling political party membership and ever-lower voter turnout. This combination of anti-establishment rhetoric and new forms of communication could be a model replicated across the continent - including the UK."

yes...

"We can all be prosperous but we can't all be rich." Ian Welsh

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 01:21:04 PM EST
This is the important result. There will be a hung Senate, that's pretty clear. But who gets the majority bonus in the House?

2 projections, from RAI and Emg, put the PD coalition slightly ahead

RAI :

  • Bersani 29.2
  • Berlu   28.7
  • Grillo  26.1
  • Monti   10.8

Emg :
  • Bersani 29.2
  • Berlu   28.1
  • Grillo  26.7
  • Monti   10.8

It's tighter than a nun's never mind.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 02:53:10 PM EST
Seeing what we are seeing in the catholic church, might not be the best metaphor.

;)

by cagatacos on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 03:16:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Tighter than a choir boy's forget about it?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 03:34:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Despite a probably bigger popular vote, the PD gets fewer sets than Berlu, apparently.

In spite of winning 3 new regions (Lazio, Liguria, Sardegna) the PD loses seats overall : seats picked up by 5* in all the regions won by Berlu.

Piemonte is the closest result, but looks like staying blue.

Numbers at 9.30:

  • Bersani    31.8%  104 seats
  • Berlu      30.5%  123 seats
  • Grillo     23.8%   57 seats
  • Monti       9.2%   17 seats

Majority is 158. So Bersani/Grillo looks like the only theoretically possible combination. Not holding my breath on that.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 03:33:27 PM EST
Most votes outstanding in Piemonte seem to be in Turin. Seems to be a pretty left-leaning town.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 03:48:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Berlu's lead in the senate race in Piemont halved from 0.28 percentage points to 0.14 in the last ten minutes (with about 100 precints added and 284 to go).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 03:53:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now that lead melted to 0.11 percentage points (2,466 votes) with 249 precints still to report, all but three in Turin. I think this will flip.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 04:06:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
to the commune level

And in the towns which have not yet reported (Rivoli, Orbasano, Piossasco, Alpigliano...)  I've found enough votes to flip the result. Rivoli alone would do it.

PD and Berlu in dead heat in the Senate!

Get your election results half a day early in the European Tribune!

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 04:31:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Venaria Reale and Settimo Torinese also. They are solid left in the last elections, several thousand votes net each. I'd say a PD majority of 10 thousand in Piedmont.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 04:35:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now it flipped: Bersani 0.13 points ahead, with 146 precints still to report.

Another close race is Molise: with 17 precints out of 393 still to report, Berlu's lead shrank to 0.10 points (prior to the last six precints reporting it was 0.33).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 04:38:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
With four more reporting in Molise, it's up to 0.18 points again.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 04:41:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oddly, the projection is that he would get no seat?!?
One to Grillo, one to Bersani, even though his coalition would arrive on top.
But his party would only be third (at the moment anyway).

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 04:50:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I've got a feeling Molise gives one senator to the PD and one to Grillo, even though Berlu's list came first.

I think it's because seats are won by parties, not lists. And therefore Grillo, biggest party gets the "majority" seat, and the PD gets the "opposition" seat.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 05:02:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
With just five precints remaining in Molise, it flipped to a 0.05 point lead for Bersani. Nail-biting finish! At party level, it is not even close: M5S first, PD second, PDL third with comfortable margins.

The official ministry homepage groups Senate votes according to coalitions, too, so I'm now officially confused.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 05:21:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A party that belongs to a coalition is counted in the coalition. A party that runs alone is treated as if it were a coalition unto itself although a single party has a higher threshold to qualify. Grillo is running on the same merit as the other three major coalitions. So if he passes the post first, his single party "coalition" gets the 55% of the Senators in that region. It doesn't matter if his party is the first party in the case another coalition garnered more votes than his party did. That winning coalition would then get the 55%.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 05:31:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In that case, the 55% should go to Bersani's senator candidate(s) in both Molise (where Bersani's lead over Berlu grew to 0.12 points with four precints still to report) and Piemont.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 05:38:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I call the senate race in Molise: with just one precint remaining it's Bersani 30.25% to Berlu 30.09%. Piemonte already finished, and it's 29.82% to 29.29%, fore than half point lead for Bersani in the end – that's some flip!

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 05:58:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As for Piemonte, Bersani's lead in the senate race is now clear: 29.71% to Berlu's 29.43%, with 62 precints remaining. At party level, PD beats M5S 26.73% to 25.66%, with PDL a distant third at 20.29%.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 05:24:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Tight? A mouse's earhole isn't in it...

If it flips, it's +9 for the PD, -9 for Berlu. Pretty close to dead even, 113 to 114!

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 04:08:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Watching the trends in the Chamber of Deputies, it appears to me that Berlusconi- or one of his lackeys-  will be the next council president if he can also form a majority in the Senate.

There are six million votes left to count for the Chamber with a difference of 250,000 votes between the two main coalitions. The difference at this point could completely turn the situation around by early morning.

At 4 PM Grillo and Berlusconi were vying for second place at around 25% with the PD coalition at 32-33%.
It's now 29,77% against 28,94%.

The votes coming in are from the rural areas, characterized by conservativism and ignorance. In the last days Berlusconi made outrageous promises: he would pay back property taxes from his own pocket and once again abolish property taxes. The last declaration was that judges were worse than the Sicilian mafia.

It seems to have worked.

Napolitano will expect the PDL to form a large coalition to avoid the disaster of new elections.

The PDL will win the next elections hands down.

I apologize for my overconfidence. And I hope I'm having a nightmare.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 04:38:02 PM EST
No, not just rural areas: Turin, Salerno were some of the places I noticed still with lots to report.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 04:40:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's the Chamber that counts at this point, not the Senate. No pre-electoral coalition has a majority in the Senate.

First past the post in the Chamber on national level has a 55% majority. Whoever wins in the Chamber will be called to form a government. The losers haven't a chance in hell.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 04:50:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Berlu has no majority in the Senate, whatever happens (unless it's for leaving the euro?) -- 113 to 114, and Beppe's boys play piggy in the middle.

Less than 10% left to count, and all the tealeaf-readers are expecting the gap to stay at around 1%.

Demain il fera jour.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 04:46:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The last 2,000 precints brought little change: with 4,207 precints out of 61,446 in Italy proper still to go, it's Bersani 29.75% to Berlu 28.96%.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 04:50:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
3833446 votes to count with a difference of 248576 between the two coalitions.

The red belt precincts are almost all definitive. The regions where Berlusconi already has a strong showing have the most precincts still to be counted.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 05:04:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What is your source for that? I see 112 precints still to count in left-leaning Turin, 284 precints in Milan where the two sides are about even, and 441 in Rome where Bersani leads.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 05:15:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In fact Rome seems to be the biggest laggard, with still more than 10% of precints not reporting the Chamber of Deputies count.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 05:46:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now 3,034 precints remain in Italy proper, and it narrowed to 29.69% to 29.02%. It will be close, but I don't think it will flip (and then there come the foreign votes, too, which look bad for Berlu).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 05:07:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
2,612 precints remain in Italy proper, and it narrowed only to 29.67% to 29.03%.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 05:16:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
1,894 precints remain in Italy proper, and it narrowed to 29.62% to 29.10%.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 05:33:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
1,373 precints remain in Italy proper, and it narrowed to 29.57% to 29.13%.

<sub>*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
</sub>
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 05:51:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
After 200 more precints, the figures are exactly the same. Meanwhile, I didn't notice when, but M5S is now the biggest party (overtaking PD 25.54% to 25.43%).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 06:03:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
773 precints to go, Bersani 29.57% Berlusconi 29.14%.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 06:08:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
508 precints to go, and it's frozen at 29.56% to 29.16%.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 06:22:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
1800 precincts to count, and we're down to 0.50%

Squeaky bum time.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 05:36:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The difference may go down to 0.2-0.3% once Italy proper is 100% counted. However, once the foreign vote count catches up, I think it will grow again.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 05:42:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Exactly my conclusion.

The current gap is around 150k. Even if it's within a few tens of thousands at the end of the Italian count, the overseas votes should tip it to the PD.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 05:46:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
NO. Votes abroad and in the Valle d'Aosta are not counted to determine who wins the bonus. The relative majority coalition that wins the 340 seats in the Chamber is going to be decided tonight.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 06:08:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It looks good, though.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 06:08:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There was a scary moment when Berlu was eroding the advantage at 6 to 8% which, had the level continued or even incremented, would have put his coalition at 50,000 votes or more than the Bersani coalition. The pace has slowed considerably which should guarantee a final advantage of  around 30,000 votes to the Bersani coalition. There are a lot of votes left to count in Campania and Lazio but Grillo is putting a damper on the difference with his showings there.

The game is still open down to the last vote. There are still 1,500,000 votes to count.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 06:36:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
See question on the bulk of the missing Campania votes downthread (Benevento).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 06:42:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
de Gondi:
The PDL will win the next elections hands down.

now you're really freaking me out.

fuck bersani, for being the pretend lefty he is, like milipede, hollande and obama.

napoletano isoverdue for his pension...
 

"We can all be prosperous but we can't all be rich." Ian Welsh

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 04:57:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know if I'm reading this correctly, but a repeat of the elections can only produce a majority for anybody if the Grillo vote fractures. From what I've been hearing here and elsewhere this, while possible, is by no means given - at least to the extent that would be necessary to alter the political calculus. Am I missing something here?

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 05:10:47 PM EST
Could a repeat give Grillo more votes? M5S is certainly very different from the "protest" parties in Israel, but polls show that they would do much better in a repeat election. Any chance of that happening here?
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 05:16:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He's only 5% away from having a majority in the lower House. If the PD forms an austerity government, then founders for lack of a majority in the Senate, then all bets are off.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 05:30:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A repeat would see Monti endorse Bersani.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 05:49:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I just read that Vendola said something about refusing "governism" (re: a grand coalition) and not letting Berlusconi express the opposition to austerity... I'm not sure it means much...

The road of excess leads to the palace of wisdom - William Blake
by talos (mihalis at gmail dot com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 05:58:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What if a repeat leads to Bersani-Monti 40%, Berlusconi 30% Grillo 30%?

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 05:52:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here in Trentino-Alto Adige the result looks clearer. Camera 44.9 Bersani, 15.8% Berlu and14,6% Grillo

As for the senate SVp-Patt-Pd-Upt together have 23.4
SVP 17.8%
PDL-lega  15.7
Grillo 15,1

Most of the seperatists are very low, except for the Freiheitlichen at 7.7%

I'm not sure why SVP and PD occur more than once, in different groupings.

by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 05:14:05 PM EST
The city of Benevento, with 72 precints, is not reporting at all. What happened?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 06:35:38 PM EST
Here they say the count was finished in Benevento's 72 precints and Bersani won the Chamber vote. So why does the ministry not display it: a recount, or information flow problem?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 06:40:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
probably information flow glitch.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 06:45:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I hope it's bad weather... there are 50,000 votes there to be counted.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 06:44:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Apart from Benevento, the bulk of the 357 precints still counting are in Rome (148) and Milan (48).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 06:47:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If that's all, that means Bersani won. His coalition leads in both cities. Grillo's party though is the first party in Rome.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 06:52:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now Benevento is finally in. 193 precints remain, of which 102 in Rome and 24 in Milan.

Overall, it's Bersani 29.55% Berlu 29.17%.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 06:57:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
96 precints remain (51 in Rome and 20 in Milan), Bersani 29.55% Berlu 29.18% Grillo 25.54% Monti 10.56% Ingroia 2.24%. This won't change much anymore, time for me to call it a day.

Bersani won, but both Grillo and Berlu beat expectations, but Berlu beating Grillo will mean that Berlu will continue to be the easiest pick for international media to discredit anti-austerity voices.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 07:13:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Bersani has won and lost.

Tomorrow Berlusconi will declare that the elections were stolen.

Berlusconi is the ex-aequo winner in the contest along with Grillo. Berlusconi centered his objective of making Italy hard to govern or reform itself to his personal advantage. Grillo's party won beyond their previsions and must assume responsibility for their showing. His deputies and senators will bring fresh resources to the legislative branch- and I hope the government also. It will be interesting to see how much cohesion there is in their group. Hard reality is more complex and subtle than virtual networks and if they can find a fructuous balance between the two, there will be lessons for the world at large.

by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 07:17:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's looking better. I forgot to tally in blank and null votes which should help. The problem is fixing a parameter for that.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 06:48:16 PM EST
anyone know if the erasmus italians abroad were given their democratic right to vote?

Italian Erasmus students must be allowed to vote, EU says | Italy

(ANSA) - Brussels, January 21 - The European Union said Monday that Erasmus students must not face discrimination but should be allowed to vote in next month's general elections in Italy.

Erasmus students from Italy, who are studying outside the country through the EU exchange program, should not be discriminated against, said a spokesman for the EU Commissioner for Education and Culture Androulla Vassiliou.

The commissioner welcomes "all efforts to...find a solution," to helping the students cast long-distance ballots, the spokesman added.

fishy, what?

"We can all be prosperous but we can't all be rich." Ian Welsh

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 07:26:49 PM EST
No. They held mock elections as a protest.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 07:32:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'll call it a day. There's work tomorrow as always. I hope I don't wake up to a nightmare. It's bad enough as is.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Mon Feb 25th, 2013 at 07:30:41 PM EST
Check out the regions where they won a plurality in the House : Sicily, Sardinia, Liguria, Marche, Abruzzo. Had they won these in the Senate, it would be a true three-way split there.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Tue Feb 26th, 2013 at 04:02:50 AM EST
If I understand the results, separatism in Sputh Tyrol has made no further advances.

Chamber results:

Tyrolian parties:

SVP:           44,2%
Freiheitliche  15,9%

Italian parties:

PD                     9,5%
Movimento 5 stelle     8,3%
PdL                    6,7%
Scelta Civica          6,5%
SEL                    5,2%
Lega Nord              0,9%

http://www.stol.it/Artikel/Politik-im-Ueberblick/Lokal/Kammer-44-2-Prozent-fuer-die-SVP-20-Prozent-H uerde-geschafft

SVP will send five deputies, one a ladinian, PdL, PD and SEL one each.

http://www.stol.it/Artikel/Politik-im-Ueberblick/Lokal/Auch-Schullian-und-Kronbichler-schaffen-Sprun g-nach-Rom

by IM on Tue Feb 26th, 2013 at 04:27:13 AM EST
Regional election results:

Lombardy: 54% Right, 29% Left, 12% Grillo (only 30 out of 9.233 precincts)

Lazio: Meaningless, based on one precinct: 33% Right, 33% Left, 27% Grillo

by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Tue Feb 26th, 2013 at 09:30:52 AM EST
Looks like Lombardy stays with the right.
Lazio goes left, as does Molise.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Tue Feb 26th, 2013 at 03:41:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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