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7 February 2013

by dvx Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 02:30:52 PM EST

Your take on today's news media


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EUROPE


The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 02:33:51 PM EST


The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 02:52:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Because they are afraid of high prices and poor quality.

This has got to be straight from a think tank as it is exactly what those driving the agenda want people to think. And they should be afraid of high prices, especially, if the water utility is privatized. If quality needs upgrading it is much cheaper to do it through municipal bonds, unless the municipality has also been thoroughly corrupted. In that case it is still probably better to go with upgrade of the public facility and fight for better management. Once privatized it is largely out of the realm of any possibility of public control. This is where 'government is the problem' thinking leads.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 11:24:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I thought the phrase was used to promote privatization. Should have watched the video first. The EU seems increasingly to be a menace to the population. I suppose the plan is to push this all through while the PPP still has a majority in the European Parliament so any successor parliament is faced with a fait accompli.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 12:37:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks for posting. The Portuguese press echoed this reportage, but I hadn't seen it with the english subtitles.

Vencit omnia veritas.
by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]a[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]gmail[dot]com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 08:44:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
German Education Minister Schavan in plagiarism scandal | News | DW.DE | 06.02.2013

Opposition leaders want German Education Minister Annette Schavan to resign after her doctorate was revoked. The plagiarism controversy poses a challenge to Chancellor Angela Merkel ahead of general elections this fall.

The general secretary of the opposition Social Democrats told the Wednesday edition of Germany's Die Welt newspaper that Schavan was no longer a credible education minister.

"She must draw the necessary conclusions," Andrea Nahles said. "The standards must apply to everyone - regardless of the person."

On Tuesday a faculty council of the University of Düsseldorf's philosophy department voted to strip Schavan of her doctorate. The council said it had found proof the education minister had "systematically and deliberately" presented intellectual efforts in her 1980 dissertation, entitled "Character and Conscience," that she herself had not generated.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 02:57:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Perhaps she hired out the writing to someone who  plagiarized it for her, but she could hardly admit that. Life can be so unfair.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 11:57:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
dvx:

"Character and Conscience," that she herself had not generated.

uh, i guess not...

"We can all be prosperous but we can't all be rich." Ian Welsh

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 06:01:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Gay marriage: PM rejects call to allow civil partnerships for straight couples | Society | guardian.co.uk

David Cameron has rejected a call by a leading Tory traditionalist for heterosexual couples to be granted the right to enter into civil partnerships after MPs voted overwhelmingly in favour of equal marriage.

As Francis Maude, the founding father of Tory modernisation, said that some elements in the party moved slowly on social issues, the prime minister said he wanted to promote marriage for all and did not want to weaken the institution.

Cameron spoke out after Christopher Chope, the Tory MP for Christchurch, reiterated a demand made by traditionalist Tories in Tuesday's Commons debate by calling for heterosexual couples to be given the same rights as same-sex couples.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 02:57:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Dave seems determined to mess up his "Yes but..." legacy moment.

Am I to understand that :

  • the "civil partnership" is open only to same-sex couples, and
  • he intends to maintain this, despite establishing equality with respect to marriage?

This simply screams "European Court of Human Rights".

He's in a bind, sure. The only coherent way out that I can see is a sunset clause : existing civil partnerships stay valid, but no more can be registered.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 04:10:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Brother of boy whose identity was stolen by police spies demands apology | UK news | guardian.co.uk

Undercover police were "reckless" when they stole the identity of an eight-year-old boy who had died of leukaemia, according to his brother, who is demanding an apology for putting his family at risk.

Anthony Barker, whose brother John Barker died in 1968, said he was shocked to discover the boy's identity was resurrected and adopted by undercover police spying on political groups.

The Metropolitan police has admitted that two of its undercover units appear to have used the identities of dead children, a practice which has lasted four decades and was still going on in the 2000s.

The identity of John Barker was adopted by a police sergeant called John Dines, who posed as an environmental campaigner between 1987 and 1992.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 02:58:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They won't apologise, it's not in their nature. Or if they do, it'll be of the non-apology type

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 04:11:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"We're sorry you are offended that we had to keep you safe from terrorists."

What a collection of deceitful people.


-----
sapere aude

by Number 6 on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 04:49:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Mid Staffs scandal: Cameron apologises and vows to tackle NHS 'complacency' | Society | guardian.co.uk

The prime minister has formally apologised for the care scandal at the Mid Staffordshire NHS hospital trust and announced immediate moves to improve patient care, increase accountability of hospitals and tackle a culture of "complacency" in the NHS.

Among the fast-tracked reforms were proposals that hospital boards could be suspended for ongoing serious care failures; an element of performance-related pay for nurses would be introduced; a new chief inspector of hospitals modelled on the Ofsted inspection agency for schools; and an inquiry into hospitals with the highest mortality rates nationwide.

David Cameron made the statement in the House of Commons after Robert Francis QC published his report into the institutional and structural failings in the NHS that allowed a catalogue of horrific incidents to occur from 2005-2009, despite complaints from patients, families and staff members.

Cameron opened his statement by insisting he had a "deep affection" for the NHS and that most staff did a good job most of the time: "It's a fantastic institution, a great organisation ... I always want to think the best of it," he said.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 02:59:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So Cameron does what he can to make things even worse.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 11:59:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"deep affection" my arse.

He's been on moneybags private health insurance all his life.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 03:07:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
didn't his son have very expensive treatment on the NHS?

"We can all be prosperous but we can't all be rich." Ian Welsh
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 06:04:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You may be right. But Cameron belongs to a class that never have to worry about health care costs.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 07:32:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
but like so many of his forktongued ilk he uses it when it suits him.


"We can all be prosperous but we can't all be rich." Ian Welsh
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 08:14:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sadly the mid-staffs focus on cost-cutting and management refusing to listen to staff has been visited on every health authority in the UK; it was an inevitable result of the Blair reforms of healthcare.

Cameron can milk it cos this didn't happen on his watch, but similar things happen every day in nearly every hospital

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 04:14:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How about the culture of complacency in government?


-----
sapere aude
by Number 6 on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 04:51:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's called 'determination to stay the course.'
by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 05:58:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Court rules sperm donors' children have right to know | News | DW.DE | 06.02.2013

A German court has decided that children of anonymous sperm donors have the right to know the names of their fathers. However, it remains unclear if the plaintiff involved in the case will ever find out the truth.

The regional appeals court in the town of Hamm ruled on Wednesday that 21-year-old Sarah P had the right to know the identity of her father.

"The interest of the plaintiff in ascertaining her parentage is assessed to be higher than the interests of the defense and the right to a nondisclosure of donor information," the court ruled.

The plaintiff's counsel had argued that all children born to sperm donors should have the right to find out the names of their fathers. The young woman had known for four years that her real father had been a sperm donor. She set out to learn his identity from a sperm bank in the city of Essen and was supported in her case by Germany's Association of Donor Children.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 02:59:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Eurointelligence Daily Morning Newsbriefing: WSJ says Bank of Italy gave covert loan to MPS (07.02.2013)
Report says BoI arranged securities transactions of close to €2bn in the autumn of 2011 to prevent a collapse in MPS after the bank suffered a liquidity crunch; help consisted of covert transactions to swap loans and mortgages for BTPs; loan was repaid on time; lack of disclosure is legal, but analysts warn that the action by the BoI may have contributed to MPS' mounting difficulties by masking the true desolate state of the bank;  an Italian newspaper reports says MPS has incurred a €730m loss in 2012, including an item of €120m believed to connected to bribery payments;  the bank denies the report, but the CEO confirms the scale of the losses; the Irish parliament has passed an emergency law overnight to liquidate Anglo Irish Bank; the bank's assets will be shifted to the bad bank Nama; the ECB will not agree a deal on promissory notes today, as several central bank governors need more time for consultation back home; the leftist SEL has formally closed to the door to an alliance with Mario Monti; Monti tells Pier Luigi Bersani to dump the SEL as part of the centre-left alliance, but Bersani says No; in an apparent show of strength, Monti plays tough on the EU budget, saying that you cannot cut the EU's budget for growth projects, and pretend to have a growth policy; Lavoce has done the math on Silvio Berlusconi's proposals, saying that they would cost Italy €60bn; the man at the centre of the Spanish bribery scandal appears for an interview with prosecutors, where he denies everything; the prosecutors says they want to expedite the case; one of the witnesses has confirmed that he knew about secret cash hand-outs to senior party officials; Mariano Rajoy's most dangerous adversary inside the PP is getting very loud lately; the number of Spanish bankruptcy cases has risen by 27% in 2012, and by 40% yoy in Q4; as EU leaders meet for a budget summit tonight where Greece may see its spending cut by 30%; Greece points to a report by Roland Berger according to which the fiscal multiplier were very high - between 1.45 and 2; Greek tax revenues have dramatically fallen behind target in January; the rate fixing scandal is widening, as RBS admits criminal charges, and as Deutsche Bank suspends staff;  the German opposition says the separation of own-account trading was a smokescreen, and would not reduce the risk to the taxpayer; finance ministry says between 10-12 banks will be affected; Angela Merkel and Francois Hollande have found a common interest in football; Ralph Atkins, meanwhile, says monetary policy and new regulation to force derivatives trades to be collateralised are un-coordinated, and likely to trigger a liquidity crunch.


I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 03:57:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Russia's 2014 Winter Olympics are dogged by controversy | Miriam Elder | Sport | The Guardian

Government critics have accused the Kremlin of overseeing one of the most corrupt projects in the country's history, an allegation that Russian officials deny.

Dmitry Kozak, deputy prime minister, said this week that the cost of the Sochi Olympics would reach £32.3bn, making them the most expensive ever and well above original estimates of £12bn. London pulled off the summer Olympics with a budget of £9bn. Boris Nemtsov, a former deputy prime minister turned opposition leader, and other government critics allege that billions have gone missing from the budget funds and Nemtsov claims he will release a report on the matter in the spring.

One of the most controversial projects has been the construction of a 45km road from Adler, the Sochi neighbourhood housing the so-called "coastal cluster", to the mountain cluster in Krasnaya Polyana. Its 260bn rouble budget meant that each kilometre cost $200m to build. "You could have paved this road with 5m tons of gold or black caviar and the price would have been the same," Nemtsov told RBK television.



It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 07:58:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
 ECONOMY & FINANCE 


The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 02:34:07 PM EST
S&P Lawsuit Undermined by SEC Rules That Impede Competition - Bloomberg

The U.S. lawsuit against Standard & Poor's raises pressure to accelerate competition in the ratings industry while the government itself has adopted rules that left the business dominated by the same companies whose flawed grades sparked the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

The Justice Department accuses McGraw-Hill Cos. and its S&P unit of deliberately understating the risk of bonds backed by mortgages made to the riskiest borrowers to win business from Wall Street banks. S&P, Moody's Investors Service and Fitch Ratings provided 96 percent of all ratings for governments and companies in the $42 trillion debt market in 2011, versus 97 percent in 2008.

The lawsuit is unlikely to change the relationship because a 2006 law intended to open the field to new entrants has instead insulated the top three. Startups have struggled to obtain the designation that lets them sell rankings because of everything from a missing recommendation letter to prohibitive compliance costs to being able to provide years of ratings performance. Even as the biggest investors say they disregard the grades, their use is still embedded in bond deals and bank reserve rules.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 03:02:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
RBS fined £390m for 'widespread misconduct' in Libor-rigging scandal | Business | guardian.co.uk

Royal Bank of Scotland has been fined £390m for "widespread misconduct" in rigging the Libor rate until as recently as November 2010 - two years after it was bailed out by the taxpayer and even after regulators had begun to investigate the key benchmark rate.

Publishing a series of embarrassing electronic exchanges between RBS traders and those at rival banks and interdealer brokers, the Financial Services Authority said it had found at least 219 requests of inappropriate submissions were documented and an unquantifiable number of oral requests. Some of this carried on until last year.

Corrupt brokerage payments were made to one broker firm to "garner influence" and the firm "abetted UBS's attempts to manipulate" Libor in Japanese yen. The Swiss bank has already been fined £940m.

One electronic exchange shows an RBS yen Libor submitter joking: "I'm like a whores' drawers." An interdealer broker is quoted saying to an RBS Libor submitter: "I'll send lunch around for everybody."



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 03:02:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the banker involved should go to jail and all of the bonuses they collected under fraudulent circumstances should be forfeit.

After all, that's what they do to drug dealers

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 04:16:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Suspected drug dealers, in some places.


-----
sapere aude
by Number 6 on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 04:52:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
i saw the NY reporter for FT on bbc yesterday calling this a 'victimless crime' because they were lowballing the LIBOR, actually making mortgages cheaper for people.

the next sentence he admitted this netted huge unearned profits for banks.

colour me stumped!

"We can all be prosperous but we can't all be rich." Ian Welsh

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 06:07:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In that case counterfeiting is also a victimless crime.

A vote for PES is a vote for EPP! A vote for EPP is a vote for PES! Support the coalition, vote EPP-PES in 2009!
by A swedish kind of death on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 12:33:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
well it could be seen as a form of counterfeit, that of trust.

"We can all be prosperous but we can't all be rich." Ian Welsh
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 01:23:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
IFS warns UK will borrow £64bn more than expected by 2015 | Business | guardian.co.uk

Britain will have borrowed £64bn more than expected by the time of the next general election after weak growth played havoc with George Osborne's deficit reduction plan, the Institute for Fiscal Studies has warned.

The UK's leading tax and spending experts said on Wednesday the public finances would be in a worse state in 2015 than permitted under plans made by the previous Labour government to tackle the deficit.

In its "green budget" annual healthcheck on the public finances, the IFS said the chancellor was allowing extra borrowing to take the strain during the current parliament at the expense of another bout of austerity after the 2015 election.

It said on current plans those departments not protected by the government's ringfence would see their budgets fall by a third in real terms between 2010-11 and 2017-18.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 03:03:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ECB May Seek More Time to Weigh Irish Plan on Precedent Concern - Bloomberg

European Central Bank policy makers may want more time to weigh a proposal presented by Ireland today to restructure the cost of bailing out former Anglo Irish Bank Corp., according to a person with knowledge of the matter.

A decision is unlikely within the next 24 hours as some members of the ECB's governing council want to discuss the blueprint with their own central banks first, said the person, who asked not to be identified, as the matter is private.

Some policy makers are concerned that the Irish proposal could set a precedent in the euro area and needs to be weighed carefully, the person said.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 03:03:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
China pledges to narrow income gap - Business - Al Jazeera English

The Chinese government has issued a pledge to narrow the widening income gap between rich and poor, which includes raising its minimum wage and requiring state companies to turn over more profits to pay for social programmes.

The pledge on Tuesday promised more spending on health, education and job training but gave few details and no sign of how Beijing will enforce changes that might hurt state industry and other politically influential factions. China Daily newspaper reported that the government is looking to lower the minimum wage of 40 percent of the current wage of $730 a month.

Communist leaders had been rumoured to be working on a plan but have faced resistance by state companies and their allies in the ruling Communist Party.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 03:08:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/02/05/182069/housings-growing-recovery-still.html

WASHINGTON -- By most economic measures, the moribund housing sector seems to have turned a corner and is now firmly in recovery. For many homeowners, however, it may still feel like a statistical rebound because an improving housing sector is not the same as a healthy one.

Economists are broadly in agreement that housing is no longer weighing against economic growth and will actually be a positive contributor in 2013.

That's supported by most measurements of the housing sector, be they starts of new single-family homes, sales of existing homes, rising median home prices or shrinking foreclosures as a percentage of total sales.

"The current forecast is for 5 million existing homes and 500,000 new single-family (housing starts), that's a pretty healthy growth in existing sales of about 8.5 percent," said Danielle Hale, director of housing statistics for the National Association of Realtors.

Sounds good, but there is a sobering footnote.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 03:17:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why Don't White-Collar Criminals Get Equal Time? | The Nation

The Obama administration collected some crowd-pleasing headlines with its announcement that the Justice Department is suing Standard & Poor's, the rating agency that notoriously fueled the financial crisis and crash by duping investors into buying billions in rotten securities. The government is said to be seeking a cash penalty of more than $1 billion.

That sounds good, but President Obama and his administration are stalked by a question of scandal that will not go away: Why isn't anyone going to jail? The lawsuit's accusation against S&P sounds like a crime. The firm, it charges, "knowingly and with intent to defraud, devised, participated in, and executed a scheme to defraud investors." Yet federal investigators seem unable to identify any Wall Street executives to prosecute as criminals.

Why not? The popular explanation, widely shared among citizens, is that leaders of the largest banks and financial firms are given a pass because they are "too big to jail." The public's cynicism sounds right. It has become a momentous black mark on the Obama presidency, like a blood stain that cannot be washed away. Does the government operate two systems of justice--one for mom-and-pop criminals and another for influential titans who run the "too big to fail" banks?



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 03:24:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It has become a momentous black mark on the Obama presidency

But he has his Presidential Library and his post presidency income to consider, you see. They never take off the golden handcuffs.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 12:09:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Why Don't White-Collar Criminals Get Equal Time? | The Nation
Does the government operate two systems of justice--one for mom-and-pop criminals and another for influential titans who run the "too big to fail" banks?

Yes.
(simple answer, simple question, etc...)

by Bernard on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 10:54:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
GRANTHAM: Investors Are Being Bullied Into Buying Risky Assets, Which Are Doomed To Crash   BI

The Fed's negative real rates regime, designed to badger us into riskier investments in order to push up equity prices and grab a short-term wealth effect (that must be given back one day when least comfortable and least expected), has gone on for a long and, for me, boring time. This low interest rate period is serving, therefore, as a sneak preview of what a permanently lower rate regime might look like (although any permanently lower rates reflecting lower GDP growth would be by no means as low as these engineered rates that we are currently experiencing).

So what are some of these effects? The artificially low T-Bill rates first work their way slowly up the curve. Next, the most obviously competitive type of equities - high yield stocks - begin to be bid up ahead of the rest of the market, as has happened. "I've just got to squeeze out some higher rates somewhere, anywhere," is the pension fund plea. Then, this low rate competition begins to filter into other securities, historically sought after for their higher yields: higher-grade real estate, where the "cap rates" slowly fall; and, unfortunately, also forestry and farmland, mainly of the larger and more standard varieties that appeal to institutions, which show declines in their required yields, i.e., their prices rise. The longer the engineered rates stay below true market rates, the higher asset prices become until, yes, you've got it, corporate assets begin to sell way over replacement cost. Then, if the heart of capitalism is still beating at all, a long period of over-investment begins and returns are bid down and everything moves into balance, often helped along if asset prices get too high, as in 2000 and 2007, by a good healthy market crunch. (Emphasis by BI)




As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 12:20:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
With respect to the financial markets most who enter in are likely to be thoroughly plucked, if I have the correct initial consonant sound.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 12:23:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Rentiers whine that the Fed refuses to subsidize voluntarily idle money while there is involuntarily idle labor.

My heart bleeds.

- Jake

Austerity can only be implemented in the shadow of a concentration camp.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Feb 8th, 2013 at 03:32:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ZIRP seems excessive and leads those who need some return on their savings that does not entail great risk s.o.l. Better to get your savings in cash and put them in a safe deposit box. Fuck 'em! If they want my money in circulation, give me at least 2%. When I say I'm in a cash position I am being literal. If enough people did the same it might have an effect. Why should I care if the of the financial rentier, by the financial rentier and for the financial rentier economy implodes. It will hurt those with lots of financial assets more than it will hurt me.

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2013 at 03:37:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Non-zero risk-free rates is a subsidy to voluntarily idle money, paid by those who do productive work or make productive investment.

Subsidies to voluntarily idle money are currently justified by the Appeal To Pension Fund argument. Because apparently There Is No Alternative to a privatized pension system.

- Jake

Austerity can only be implemented in the shadow of a concentration camp.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2013 at 04:26:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
None-the-less, here I am. Social Security is great, and the amount it pays out is enough to keep lots of people out of poverty, but if you want or need much more than that it has to be from savings unless you have the privilege to keep working. Even a modest return would  extend the time that this savings covers. But the system is run by and for financial criminals, so those of us in that situation are merely prey. And then there are expectations, which, of course, are manipulated. Ten years ago an expectation of a 3% return was very conservative. It is now unobtainable at any reasonable risk.  

As the Dutch said while fighting the Spanish: "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2013 at 12:38:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In the US the major banks do not fund businesses.  I don't know of a single major US bank that still has a business loan operation.   They fund consumer consumption through credit cards, etc.
 

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot
by ATinNM on Sun Feb 10th, 2013 at 01:38:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They could instead have an employer of last resort policy... which continues to be in the realm of the unthinkable.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Feb 10th, 2013 at 05:31:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Eurointelligence
Atkins on what happens if collateral rules are enforced

Writing in the FT, Ralph Atkins writes about the possibly unintended consequences of EU plans to non-centrally cleared trades to be backed by high levels of collateral. Given the size of the trading, the total collateral would be in the order of $10tn, according to some estimates. He writes the volume of safe assets sucked out of the financial system would be massive, and would counter any attempts by the central banks to stimulate the economy through asset purchases. The European parliament's economic affairs committee has voted late on Monday to delay implementation of the new plans. Atkins argues that the derivatives regulation is a sign that different parts of the crisis policies are un-coordinated. He cites a paper by Manmohan Singh a collateral expert at the IMF, who argues regulators are also throwing spanners into the financial system by restricting the multiple, or re-use of safe assets as collateral. That would reduce the collateral requirement in Europe to a range of $2tn and $4tn. In addition, QE and another asset purchase programmes by central banks also reduce the available collateral, leading towards a "collateral crunch" at some point. The ultimate victim in all of this is the real economy.



I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 05:02:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That actually seems like a great idea, given that treasuries are definitionally valid collateral under BIS rules.

If you wanna do derivatives, you have to subsidize government bonds that the ECBuBa won't touch. I like that plan.

- Jake

Austerity can only be implemented in the shadow of a concentration camp.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Feb 8th, 2013 at 03:34:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
 WORLD 


The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 02:34:21 PM EST
Tunisia PM to dissolve government amid crisis - Africa - Al Jazeera English

Tunisia's prime minister will dissolve the Islamist-led government and form a national unity administration, official sources say.

Hamadi Jebali "will deliver a speech to the nation tonight and will announce the formation of a new government of non-partisan figures and technocrats", one source said.

The source said that Jabali's decision, which followed the killing of prominent secular opposition figure Shokri Belaid in front of his home on Wednesday, was a personal one taken in the interests of the country.

Belaid, leader of the left-leaning Democratic Patriots party, was killed on Wednesday as he was leaving his home.

He was transported to a hospital in the suburbs of Tunis where he died of his wounds, his brother confirmed.

Following news of Belaid's death, violence and protests broke out on the streets of Tunis.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 03:07:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Islamists disown PM over move to end Tunisian crisis | Reuters

(Reuters) - Tunisia's governing Islamists rejected on Thursday a plan by their party chief and prime minister to dismiss the government after the shooting of a leading critic, whose death sparked the biggest street protests since a revolution two years ago.

Prime Minister Hamdi Jebali of Ennahda announced late on Wednesday he would replace the government led by his moderate Islamist party with a non-partisan cabinet until elections could be held as soon as possible.

But a senior Ennahda official said Jebali had not consulted the party, suggesting the Islamist group was deeply divided over the move to replace the governing coalition and that could prolong the political crisis.

"The prime minister did not ask the opinion of his party," said Abdelhamid Jelassi, Ennahda's vice-president.

"We in Ennahda believe Tunisia needs a political government now. We will continue discussions with other parties about forming a coalition government," he said.

Lest we forget : the actual political crisis, preceding the assassination, was triggered by coalition parties' insistence on firing a couple of non-performing Ennahda ministers.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 07:05:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
France battling rebels in Mali's north - Africa - Al Jazeera English

French and Malian troops are fighting al-Qaeda-linked rebels outside Gao, northern Mali's largest town, France's defence minister has said.

Jean-Yves Le Drian described the desert campaign against the group as a "real war" that was far from won.

After driving the rebels from north Mali's main towns with three weeks of air strikes and a lightning ground advance, France is now pursuing them in the remote northeast where pro-autonomy Tuaregs are pressing their own territorial claims.

Le Drian said on Wednesday that French and Malian joint patrols were searching the scrubland outside the desert trading towns of Timbuktu and Gao. Residents of Gao said on Tuesday that the town was hit by rebel rockets fired from outside the city.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 03:07:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Reports: US keeps drone base in Saudi Arabia - Middle East - Al Jazeera English

The CIA conducts lethal drone attacks against targets in Yemen from a base inside Saudi Arabia, according to the New York Times newspaper, including the attack that killed American-born Anwar al-Awlaki.

The existence of the base has been reported before, but its exact location has been withheld by various news outlets at the request of the Obama administration.

The base was first used in 2011, the Times reported, to launch the drone strike that killed Awlaki, a key ideologue in Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).

Any operation by US military or intelligence officials inside Saudi Arabia is politically and religiously sensitive. AQAP and other groups have used the kingdom's close relationship with the US to recruit new members, and to stir internal dissent against the Saudi government.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 03:07:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2013/02/05/182109/leaked-us-justification-for-drone.html

WASHINGTON -- Civil and human rights advocates Tuesday denounced a leaked Obama administration "white paper" that sets out the legal justification for killing U.S. citizens suspected of being members of al Qaida, an issue certain to arise during the confirmation hearing Thursday of White House counterterrorism adviser John Brennan to be CIA director.

The White House on Tuesday defended the practice of targeted killing, for which Brennan is a key overseer, as "legal . . . ethical and . . . wise." But spokesman Jay Carney rejected anew calls by lawmakers and others for the administration to release a secret 2010 Justice Department legal opinion on which the leaked Justice Department white paper was based.

Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., who chairs the Senate Intelligence Committee that will consider Brennan's nomination, acknowledged that the panel had received the white paper as a "confidential document" in June.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 03:17:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
UN official condemns Somalia rape verdict - Africa - Al Jazeera English

The UN's top human rights official has condemned the trial and sentencing of a Somali journalist, and the alleged rape victim he interviewed, as "deeply disturbing" and a blow to "the fight against impunity" in rape cases.

The journalist, Abdiaziz Abdinur Ibrahim, and the victim, an unidentified 27-year-old woman, were both sentenced on Tuesday to one year in prison. They were charged with making false accusations and "insulting a government body."

"This is a terrible blow to freedom of expression in a country where independent journalists have also been regularly targeted and killed," Navi Pillay, the UN high commissioner for human rights, said in a statement on Wednesday.

"I am very concerned about the impact the penalization of the woman alleging rape could have in the fight against impunity in sexual violence cases, especially given the reports of increasing sexual violence in Somalia."



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 03:07:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Hezbollah criticises Israel over bomb probe - Middle East - Al Jazeera English

The deputy leader of Hezbollah has attacked Israel for waging an "international campaign" against it after Bulgaria said the Lebanese group was behind a July bombing that killed five Israeli tourists.

After a months-long investigation, the Bulgarian government on Tuesday accused Hezbollah of orchestrating the attack, which targeted a bus carrying Israeli tourists in Burgas, on Bulgaria's Black Sea coast.

Six people were killed, five of them Israeli, and dozens were wounded.

Naim Qassem, the group's number two, criticised on Wednesday the "international campaign of intimidation waged by Israel against Hezbollah," and said it is "ever improving its equipment and training" and that "these charges will change nothing."

Qassem did not make specific reference to the bombing, which also killed one Bulgarian. These were his first comments since Bulgaria accused the group on Tuesday.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 03:08:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Exposed: The Dark-Money ATM of the Conservative Movement | Mother Jones

Working out of an nondescript brick rowhouse in suburban Virginia, a little-known organization named Donors Trust, staffed by five employees, has steered hundreds of millions of dollars to the most influential think tanks, foundations, and advocacy groups in the conservative movement. Over the past decade, it has funded the right's assault on labor unions, climate scientists, public schools, economic regulations, and the very premise of activist government. Yet unlike its nearest counterpart on the progressive side, the Tides Foundation, a bogeyman of Glenn Beck and Bill O'Reilly, Donors Trust has mostly avoided any real scrutiny. It is the dark-money ATM of the right.

Founded in 1999, Donors Trust (and an affiliated group, Donors Capital Fund) has raised north of $500 million and doled out $400 million to more than 1,000 conservative and libertarian groups, according to Whitney Ball, the group's CEO. Donors Trust allows wealthy contributors who want to donate millions to the most important causes on the right to do so anonymously, essentially scrubbing the identity of those underwriting conservative and libertarian organizations. Wisconsin's 2011 assault on collective bargaining rights? Donors Trust helped fund that. ALEC, the conservative bill mill? Donors Trust supports it. The climate deniers at the Heartland Institute? They get Donors Trust money, too

Donors Trust is not the source of the money it hands out. Some 200 right-of-center funders who've given at least $10,000 fill the group's coffers. Charities bankrolled by Charles and David Koch, the DeVoses, and the Bradleys, among other conservative benefactors, have given to Donors Trust. And other recipients of Donors Trust money include the Heritage Foundation, Grover Norquist's Americans for Tax Reform, the NRA's Freedom Action Foundation, the Cato Institute, the American Enterprise Institute, the Federalist Society, and the Americans for Prosperity Foundation, chaired (PDF) by none other than David Koch. 



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 03:23:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
China state media: North Korea would 'pay a heavy price' for nuclear test - Behind The Wall

Published at 10:35 a.m. ET: BEIJING - It remains unclear just when, if ever, North Korea will attempt its controversial third nuclear test, but there are growing signs that the reclusive nation's biggest political ally is growing weary of its behavior.

A strongly worded editorial in China's state-run Global Times newspaper Wednesday called on Beijing to get tough with Pyongyang if it conducts a nuclear test.

"If North Korea insists on a third nuclear test despite attempts to dissuade it, it must pay a heavy price," the paper said. It called on China to cut economic aid to the struggling country as punishment.

The editorial also restated a popular opinion held by many Chinese experts that friction between North Korea and its regional neighbors was opening China up to diplomatic attack from players such as the United States.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 03:23:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How could things get worse for North Koreans?


-----
sapere aude
by Number 6 on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 05:10:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
They're forced to watch FOX.

The good news ... it's only a life sentence. You eventually leave this planet of idiots.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 02:45:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
LIVING OFF THE PLANET
Environment, Energy, Agriculture, Food


The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 02:34:44 PM EST
When Global Catastrophes Collide: The Climate Engineering Double Catastrophe | Guest Blog, Scientific American Blog Network

It could be difficult for human civilization to survive a global catastrophe like rapid climate change, nuclear war, or a pandemic disease outbreak. But imagine if two catastrophes strike at the same time. The damages could be even worse. Unfortunately, most research only looks at one catastrophe at a time, so we have little understanding of how they interact. My colleagues and I at the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute are beginning to fill this void, starting with a new paper [1] involving climate engineering and a separate catastrophe combining for a "double catastrophe". It's a grim prospect that could even result in human extinction, but we can also work to avoid it.

Let's start at the beginning of the scenario. Yes, the climate is changing, and we're already seeing damages from it. But our planet is, as they say, just starting to warm up. Unless we do something to keep temperatures down, things could get much worse. One grim possibility is that large portions of Earth become uninhabitable to mammals [2]. (That includes us.) Temperature and humidity get too high for mammals to cool our bodies through perspiration - even if the wind's blowing - and so we overheat and die. By continuing to put greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, we are tempting an extremely dangerous fate.

Alarmingly, we have been slow to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and the climate is changing faster than ever. Because of this, some people - myself included - have been interested in alternative ways to cool things down, mainly by engineering the planet. There are several approaches to climate engineering (also known as geoengineering). The most popular approach involves putting little particles into the atmosphere to reflect incoming sunlight back out to space. The more particles we put up there, the less sunlight reaches the surface, and the cooler temperatures will be. If it works, it could help us avoid the worst harms of climate change.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 03:16:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Deadly tsunami hits Solomon Islands - Asia-Pacific - Al Jazeera English
A powerful 8.0-magnitude earthquake has set off a tsunami that killed at least five people in a remote part of the Solomon Islands, triggering evacuations across the South Pacific as island nations issued tsunami alerts.

The Pacific Tsunami Warning Centre cancelled its regional alert for Pacific-island nations at 03:50 GMT on Wednesday, about two and a half hours after the powerful quake struck at 01:12 GMT near the Santa Cruz islands in the Solomons.

Australian and US monitors said a tsunami wave measuring 91 centimetres washed into the town of Lata, on the main Santa Cruz island of Ndende. The wave also reached parts of Vanuatu and New Caledonia, a 40 centimetre tsunami hit as far away as Japan's Hachijo Island, about 290km south of Tokyo.

The United Nations Office for the Co-ordination of Humanitarian Affairs said the wave appeared to have travelled 500 metres inland, inundating Lata's airstrip as well as surrounding villages, flattening many traditional houses.


The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 03:21:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Feds warn global warming bringing big change to forests, including more wildfire and insects - The Washington Post

GRANTS PASS, Ore. -- Big changes are in store for the nation's forests as global warming increases wildfires and insect infestations, and generates more frequent floods and droughts, the U.S. Department of Agriculture warns in a report released Tuesday.

The compilation of more than 1,000 scientific studies is part of the National Climate Assessment and will serve as a roadmap for managing national forests across the country in coming years.

A CBO report, meanwhile, says deficits are falling below $1 trillion, the lowest level since 2008.

It says the area burned by wildfires is expected to at least double over the next 25 years, and insect infestations often will affect more land per year than fires.

Dave Cleaves, climate adviser to the chief of the U.S. Forest Service, said climate change has become the primary driver for managing national forests, because it poses a major threat to their ability to store carbon and provide clean water and wildlife habitat.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 03:22:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Regulators Discover a Hidden Viral Gene in Commercial GMO Crops

How should a regulatory agency announce they have discovered something potentially very important about the safety of products they have been approving for over twenty years?

In the course of analysis to identify potential allergens in GMO crops, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) has belatedly discovered that the most common genetic regulatory sequence in commercial GMOs also encodes a significant fragment of a viral gene (Podevin and du Jardin 2012). This finding has serious ramifications for crop biotechnology and its regulation, but possibly even greater ones for consumers and farmers. This is because there are clear indications that this viral gene (called Gene VI) might not be safe for human consumption. It also may disturb the normal functioning of crops, including their natural pest resistance.

What Podevin and du Jardin discovered is that of the 86 different transgenic events (unique insertions of foreign DNA) commercialized to-date in the United States 54 contain portions of Gene VI within them. They include any with a widely used gene regulatory sequence called the CaMV 35S promoter (from the cauliflower mosaic virus; CaMV). Among the affected transgenic events are some of the most widely grown GMOs, including Roundup Ready soybeans (40-3-2) and MON810 maize. They include the controversial NK603 maize recently reported as causing tumors in rats (Seralini et al. 2012).

The researchers themselves concluded that the presence of segments of Gene VI "might result in unintended phenotypic changes". They reached this conclusion because similar fragments of Gene VI have already been shown to be active on their own (e.g. De Tapia et al. 1993). In other words, the EFSA researchers were unable to rule out a hazard to public health or the environment.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 03:51:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How can this be, since the FDA has always decreed that GM crops are "substantially equivalent" to non-GM crops, and EFSA has always rubber-stamped the FDA's decree?

I am bemused.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 04:00:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 04:47:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Chicken pox vaccine associated with shingles epidemic
New research published in the International Journal of Toxicology (IJT) by Gary S. Goldman, Ph.D., reveals high rates of shingles (herpes zoster) in Americans since the government's 1995 recommendation that all children receive chicken pox vaccine.

Goldman's research supports that shingles, which results in three times as many deaths and five times the number of hospitalizations as chicken pox, is suppressed naturally by occasional contact with chicken pox.

by Fran (fran at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 03:58:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
 LIVING ON THE PLANET 
 Society, Culture, History, Information 


The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 02:34:57 PM EST
Does probability come from quantum physics?

Feb. 5, 2013 -- Ever since Austrian scientist Erwin Schrodinger put his unfortunate cat in a box, his fellow physicists have been using something called quantum theory to explain and understand the nature of waves and particles.

But a new paper by physics professor Andreas Albrecht and graduate student Dan Phillips at the University of California, Davis, makes the case that these quantum fluctuations actually are responsible for the probability of all actions, with far-reaching implications for theories of the universe.

Quantum theory is a branch of theoretical physics that strives to understand and predict the properties and behavior of atoms and particles. Without it, we would not be able to build transistors and computers, for example. One aspect of the theory is that the precise properties of a particle are not determined until you observe them and "collapse the wave function" in physics parlance.

Schrodinger's famous thought experiment extends this idea to our scale. A cat is trapped in a box with a vial of poison that is released when a radioactive atom randomly decays. You cannot tell if the cat is alive or dead without opening the box. Schrodinger argued that until you open the box and look inside, the cat is neither alive nor dead but in an indeterminate state.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 03:17:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The real 'take-away' from Shcrodinger's thought experiment is: statistics is not a epistemological panacea.  

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot
by ATinNM on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 12:09:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What is the take-away from 80 years of research on hidden variables? (For a refresher, see here)

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 02:59:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
From your diary:

Hidden-variable theories try to replicate the experimental predictions of quantum mechanics while using a conceptual model which is deterministic, not probabilistic ...

People who use probability in a deterministic conceptual mode need to provide their probability matrix is complete.  If so, then, "Go For It, me ducks."

If not you get:

where Thing Fall Down, Go Boom.

Note the driver, based on probability, was 100% safe as the bridge had never exhibited Fall Down, Go Boom behavior 100% of the time before it Fall Down, Go Boom.

 

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot

by ATinNM on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 03:24:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ATinNM:
based on probability

There is no probability of anything happening that Has Never Happened Before?

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 03:32:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There is an unknown probability of something happening that has never happened.  

I note that is, in part, a philosophical position see this and this with Non-Euclidean Geometry for an example of "mathematics as the constructive mental activity of humans."  Also the fact there isn't A Logic© but many logics with differing Valid use(s) depending on what is being, e.g., analyzed.

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot

by ATinNM on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 04:03:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It may be worth it to revisit Keynes' arguments about probabilistic reasoning and induction, because I think they are quite interesting. I wrote a bit about it here but not nearly enough on that specific point.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 04:19:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Who is that ATinNM guy and why was he Mr. Gumpychops?

8^{

What point(s) do you think need expansion?

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot

by ATinNM on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 04:46:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Keynes' theory of inductive reasoning.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 04:55:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Logicians have changed the technical scope of Logical Induction since Keynes.  (I think.  The History of Logic isn't my field.)  Now Inductive arguments are deemed to suggest, but not ensure, Truth.  Technically, Induction no longer includes entailment.  The reason is it's all too easy to fall into the Fallacy of Denying the Antecendent.  

Here is a quick overview of the differing interpretations of probability.  I haven't read Keynes' book so ... ?

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot

by ATinNM on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 05:37:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There is no probability of anything happening that Has Never Happened Before?
Laplace pretended to calculate the probability of the sun not rising tomorrow, which may be a meaningless concept.

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 04:16:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
(Looking at his cards ...)

I see your Laplace and raise with Pascal's Wager.

A truly great and original mind off into Dipsy-Doo Land

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot

by ATinNM on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 04:55:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One should probably read the paper, and not the press accounts of it.
We argue using simple models that all successful practical uses of probabilities originate in quantum fluctuations in the microscopic physical world around us, often propagated to macroscopic scales. Thus we claim there is no physically verified fully classical theory of probability. We comment on the general implications of this view, and specifically question the application of classical probability theory to cosmology in cases where key questions are known to have no quantum answer.


I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 12:23:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
One should probably read the paper, and not the press accounts of it.

Indeed.

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot

by ATinNM on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 12:30:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ON THIS DATE


The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 02:35:15 PM EST
b. 1885 - Sinclair Lewis, American writer, Nobel Prize Laureate (d. 1951)



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman

by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 02:42:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Do people (aside from me and my two friends) still read Sinclair Lewis?

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot
by ATinNM on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 12:14:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
 PEOPLE AND KLATSCH 


The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 02:35:31 PM EST
Leibniz cookie caper reaches happy ending | News | DW.DE | 06.02.2013

The weeklong saga of the disappearance of the big gold biscuit from the front of the Leibniz cookie maker HQ in Hanover has reached a happy ending. The "Cookie Monster" returned his tasty treasure unharmed.

In Hanover, a thief posing as the "Cookie Monster" character from Sesame Street has returned safely the iconic ornamental metallic sign in the shape of a big biscuit that normally hangs at the entrance of the German snack maker Leibniz.

The thief nabbed the heavy gold-colored biscuit from outside Leibniz's Hanover HQ last week. The "Cookie Monster" was very specific, demanding the sick children should receive milk chocolate-covered treats

He or she then issued a ransom demand, along with a photo posing as the Cookie Monster biting the biscuit.

The terms for the sign's safe return were delivery of milk chocolate biscuits to a string of children's hospitals and a cash donation to a local animal sanctuary.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 02:59:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Strom Thurmond's black daughter: a symbol of America's complicated racial history

Essie Mae Washington-Williams lived for 87 years. But, in her own words, she was never "completely free" until she could stand before the world and say out loud that Strom Thurmond, the one-time segregationist South Carolina senator, was her father. That was in 2003, after she had spent more than 70 years being denied what we all deserve - her true name and birthright. "In a way, my life began at 78, at least my life as who I really was," Washington-Williams wrote in her life story. She has died.

Thurmond's oldest child -- born when he was a 22-year-old man and her mother, Carrie Butler, a 16-year-old black maid in his father's house - had kept the senator's secret, an open one rumored about but never revealed when he was alive because, she had said, "He trusted me, and I respected him." As in the case of Thomas Jefferson, another successful southern politician who was father to black children, stories shared among African Americans were long disbelieved until they turned out to be true.



The fact is that what we're experiencing right now is a top-down disaster. -Paul Krugman
by dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Wed Feb 6th, 2013 at 03:09:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"all the laws of Washington and all the bayonets of the Army cannot force the Negro into our homes, into our schools, our churches and our places of recreation and amusement."
by asdf on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 06:43:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

facepalm...

"We can all be prosperous but we can't all be rich." Ian Welsh

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 05:08:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The actual first hits are "School makes me hate life?" and "School makes me want to kill myself".....
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 05:30:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm wondering if this hasn't become a Thing.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 07:30:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think Google are onto the meme.

"suicidal" no longer features for me.

I get "sick/anxious/depressed/hate life/angry/tired/sad/nervous/cry".

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 07:44:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
they can't keep it down, facts are facts

school makes me cry

school makes me angry

school makes me wanna die

school makes me so tired

school makes me depressed

school makes me suicidal

but then...

school makes me - Google Search

Dec 28, 2012 - school makes me want to end my life but then again so does watery ketchup.

LOL


"We can all be prosperous but we can't all be rich." Ian Welsh

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 08:26:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sounds like Jancovic's "You make me".

(The Firefox dictionary wants me to change "Jancovic's" to "Covariance's". Build by geeks with pride.)


-----
sapere aude

by Number 6 on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 08:41:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I suspect Google has edited it to remove "School wants me to bring a gun and shoot everybody".....
by gk (g k quattro due due sette "at" gmail.com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 10:11:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
'back to school' glock sales...

"We can all be prosperous but we can't all be rich." Ian Welsh
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 01:21:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Go to Google and type in "School is ..." and the first up is "School is boring."  

Which is an amazing achievement.  

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot

by ATinNM on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 12:39:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Type 'Google is ' and get...

Google is your friend
Google is evil
Google is god
Google is skynet

I distribute. You re-distribute. He gives your hard-earned money to lazy scroungers. -- JakeS

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 12:41:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
lol

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot
by ATinNM on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 12:46:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]


"We can all be prosperous but we can't all be rich." Ian Welsh
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 08:04:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Each Canadian gun is less dangerous.

Dividing one of the two stats above by the other you get, possibly, how dangerous each gun is: Canada 0.07 deaths per 1000 guns per year, USA 0.11.

In this dubious measurement "the West" ranges from 0.02 for Cyprus to 0.21 for Portugal. South America 0.10 for Peru to 8.68 for El Salvador. "Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union" from 0.02 for Azerbaijan to 2.30 for Lithuania.

A better statistic would be number of deaths per number of people who own guns. (You can only fire two guns at a time, unless you're Travis Bickle.)

Haven't compared to traffic/care related death which would amuse me. (We're still comparing everything to cars, right?)


-----
sapere aude

by Number 6 on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 08:39:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]


"We can all be prosperous but we can't all be rich." Ian Welsh
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 08:35:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]


You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 09:53:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What they don't tell you about is the man-eating mosquitos for 2 months of the year, and the 365 day likelihood of encountering buprenorphine.

It has been my dream to take an innocent party to the wilds to demonstrate the fact that "we swim at the bottom of an electromagnetic sea". We'd get way out in the middle of the greenage wasteland where you can cup your hand in a stream and drink wonderful water, where there is not a single other sign of human existence - apart from the party, and where you can almost hear the crowds scudding across the forest canopy.

At this point I ask "Are we now alone?". And to their affirmative, I reply by revealing a series of electromagnetic devices such as radios, mobile hones, CB, sat Xmissions. My fingers play across the dials and keyboards summoning a discordancy of messages from across the planet.

As their horror mounts, I bring out a selection of over-priced Faraday wigs. "Yes, peace of mind can be yours."

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 01:54:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And in 5 pt Helvetica: "within a certain range of frequencies"

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 01:56:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sven Triloqvist:
you can almost hear the crowds scudding across the forest canopy

Urban poetry at its finest.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 02:13:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Solution to the "man-eating mosquitoes" is an all female cast and crew.

Skepticism is the first step on the road to truth. -- Denis Diderot
by ATinNM on Thu Feb 7th, 2013 at 03:01:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Elder Daughter was in Finnish Lapland last weekend. Filming, I suppose, because she does. Haven't seen the film yet.
I understand there was no aurora. Never mind.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Fri Feb 8th, 2013 at 02:35:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bad timing - a shitload of solar burp is about to hit this weekend,

You can't be me, I'm taken
by Sven Triloqvist on Fri Feb 8th, 2013 at 12:43:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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