Welcome to the new version of European Tribune. It's just a new layout, so everything should work as before - please report bugs here.

First EP aggregated poll

by A swedish kind of death Thu Feb 20th, 2014 at 07:14:33 AM EST

Pollwatch2014.eu has released their first aggregation polls and prediction of result.

So as of yesterday, here is the score, in seats (+ change from today):
S&D 217 (+22)
EPP 200 (-74)
ALDE 70 (-15)
GUE-NGL 56 (+21)
Greens-EFA 44 (-14)
ECR 42 (-14)
EFD 30 (-3)
NI 92 (+62)

(Note that the total numbers of seats changes from 766 to 751.)


Pollwatch's method for prediction can be checked at their page, please do before commenting on it. It is one of those topics that can get heated.

We can see a movement to the left, but also to NI and some of these will spread out after election. So checking the NI column in order of size:

FR: Front national 22 (NI)
IT: M5* 18 (New)
DE: AfD 7 (New)
IT: Fratelli d'Italia 6 (New)
CZ: Akce nespokojených občanů 6 (New)
SP: Unión Progresso y Democracia 5 (NI)
NE: Partij voor de Vrijheid 5 (NI)
AU: Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs 4 (NI)
HU: Jobbik 3 (NI)
GR: Chrysi Aygi 3 (New)
BU: Bulgaria Without Censorship 2 (New)
UK: Democratic Unionist Party 1 (NI)
SE: Sverigedemokraterna 1 (New)
BE: Vlaams Belang 1 (NI)
CZ: Úsvit přímé demokracie Tomia Okamury 1 (New)
SK: Nova Vacsina 1 (New)
SK: Ludová strana Naše Slovensko 1 (New)
SL: Demokratična stranka upokojencev Slovenije 1 (New)
CR: Nacionalni forum 1 (New)
BU: Natsionalno Obedinenie Ataka 1 (NI)
BU: Natzionalen Front za Spasenie na Bulgaria 1 (NI)
CY: Citizen's Alliance Party 1 (New)

M'okay. 11 one-seat parties.

FN up 19 seats to 22, so a new ugly group could get formed around it. Oh, and FNs gains gives the far-right an increase of about the same as S&D or GUE-NGL

Guess these are the interesting ones:
IT: M5* 18 (New)
DE: AfD 7 (New)
IT: Fratelli d'Italia 6 (New)
CZ: Akce nespokojených občanů 6 (New)

Is M5* interested in joining a group? Will AfD join the tories in ECR? What is Fratelli d'Italia and Akce nespokojených občanů?

Display:
For the non-initiates, NI is non-inscrits, that is MEPs that are not members of a group.

Checking the NIs was simply done by checking wikipedia for the current NI group. I think it is somewhat misleading that new parties enter in the NI as default.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Thu Feb 20th, 2014 at 07:21:35 AM EST
European Tribune - First EP aggregated poll
FN up 19 seats to 22, so a new ugly group could get formed around it.

Marine Le Pen is of course busy building an agreement with, at least, Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs and Partij voor de Vrijheid, probably also Vlaams Belang.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Thu Feb 20th, 2014 at 08:09:11 AM EST
That's a block of 32 seats.

Other (more extreme) far-right parties among the NI have a combined 11 seats:

  • HU: Jobbik 3 (NI)
  • GR: Chrysi Aygi 3 (New)
  • SE: Sverigedemokraterna 1 (New)
  • CZ: Úsvit přímé demokracie Tomia Okamury 1 (New)
  • SK: Ludová strana Naše Slovensko 1 (New)
  • BU: Natsionalno Obedinenie Ataka 1 (New)
  • BU: Natzionalen Front za Spasenie na Bulgaria 1 (New)

Some of these might be compatible with the UKIP-dominated EFD (which also has a range from colourful loons to dangerous fools). At any rate, all right-of-centre-right forces (ECR+AfD, EFD, the FN block and Jobbik & co, and I won't exclude the Tories and ODS) would combine to 122 seats, or 16.2%...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Feb 20th, 2014 at 10:10:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Counting the present Non-Inscrits I find at least 21 in that bloc, it is faster to list those that don't belong: Hans-Peter Martin 3, UPyD 1, DUP 1. Article 50 (NE) (1 seat) has no wikipedia article.

So from 56+33+21 = 110 (out of 761) to 122 (out of 751). Gains, but smaller then those of the soc-dems and the left.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Thu Feb 20th, 2014 at 10:51:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
BTW, Ataka is not new (it's "Attack" in the Wikipedia list), nor in practice the other from Bulgaria which is an Ataka break-away.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Feb 20th, 2014 at 11:12:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah, right. Thanks, changed to reflect that.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Thu Feb 20th, 2014 at 12:35:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Turns out Article 50 is a PVV split, so 111 today.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Fri Feb 21st, 2014 at 08:00:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Akce nespokojených občanů (ANO) is a new Czech populist party which joined the new government coalition with he Social Democrats. It is the outfit of a billionaire.

Regarding AfD, my impression is that they are UKIP-level loons, but the Tories already had no problems doing common business with beyond-UKIP-level loons from Poland and Italy.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Thu Feb 20th, 2014 at 09:37:49 AM EST
As for Fratelli d'Italia (Brothers of Italy), it appears to be an outfit of centre-right 'rebels' against Berlusconi who mostly came from Fini's post-fascist AN. (I wish de Gondi would chip in.)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Feb 20th, 2014 at 09:44:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
In most elections there is a clear win criteria, not so much in the EP election. So some things to look for:

Largest party group: will likely get first shot at commission president. Currently EPP, in this poll PES.

Majorities. Can the leading party form any other majorities then grand coalition? In this poll, maybe PES-ALDE-GREEN-LEFT.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Fri Feb 21st, 2014 at 11:56:16 AM EST
Well that coalition looks OK on paper. And we can note that in a number of countries, e.g. France, an alliance between PES and LEFT parties is not a show-stopper.

And for at least one country, it is indeed a show-stopper. So I think we can forget about it, don't you?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Feb 24th, 2014 at 08:36:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The German SPD has already dropped its opposition to a coalition with Die Linke in Germany.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Feb 24th, 2014 at 09:00:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Just realised something I learnt after the 2009 election: GUE-NGL does not have a whip.

European United Left-Nordic Green Left - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

The GUE/NGL is a confederal group: it is composed of MEPs from national parties. Those national parties must share common political objectives with the group, as specified in the group's constituent declaration. Nevertheless, those national parties, not the group, retain control of their MEPs. Thus, the Group may be divided on certain issues.

Now, the whipping is not particularly forceful in the other groups either but if it comes down to a face-off with the Council this fall, voting discipline is crucial.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Mon Feb 24th, 2014 at 11:17:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I wonder about the efficacy of a whip on the Greens/EFA group too : especially the "EFA" part. I wonder whether this grouping will survive as such; in Belgium, the poll predicts 4 seats (against 1 currently) for the Nieuw-Vlaamse Alliantie, which is right-wing nationalist. Likewise, the Scottish National Party.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Feb 24th, 2014 at 01:55:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Greens, soc-dems and liberals would also be a bit larger then EPP and the far right, so if the left and M5* can be counted on to at least abstain, that is also a possible coalition. Don't think there is any votes that needs 50%+ of the elected in the EP, so an absolute majority is not needed.

But yes, PES-EPP is by far the more likely coalition. It would avoid a confrontation with the Council over nominations (in particular the rest of the Commission), and it is comfortable and serious in its austerity.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Mon Feb 24th, 2014 at 09:06:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's the likely outcome. As the centre circles its wagons arount the Eurozone they just encourage the growth of the extremes.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Feb 24th, 2014 at 12:21:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Note that that coalition only needs to last long enough to vote Schulz in.

Afterwards, the Left parties are likely to find themselves outside the pro-Eurozone consensus of PES, ALDE, Greens/EFA and EPP.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Feb 24th, 2014 at 12:16:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Bundesverfassungsgericht has just ruled that the 3% minimum for the EP is unconstitutional, so you may have to add minor parties like the FDP and NPD to your list.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed Feb 26th, 2014 at 04:23:10 AM EST
holy crap. Does this now apply to all elections in D-land?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed Feb 26th, 2014 at 06:04:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
No. The court basically said that because the EP is irrelevant anyway, letting in a few crazies wouldn't make a difference. In their more diplomatic words
Die Richter entschieden nun mit einer knappen Mehrheit von fünf zu drei Stimmen, dass eine Sperrklausel weiterhin noch nicht nötig ist, "um die Funktionsfähigkeit des Europäischen Parlaments zu erhalten". Das Parlament sei zwar auf dem Weg, sich als institutioneller Gegenspieler der EU-Kommission zu profilieren. Diese Entwicklung könne aber noch nicht mit der Situation im Bundestag verglichen werden, "wo die Bildung einer stabilen Mehrheit für die Wahl einer handlungsfähigen Regierung und deren fortlaufende Unterstützung nötig ist".
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed Feb 26th, 2014 at 06:13:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
OK, so it's deliberate sabotage of the EU parliament... send as many crazies as possible.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed Feb 26th, 2014 at 06:44:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You could also interpret this as arguing that Germany is only electing about 15% of the total MEPs so the formation of a majority is not dependent on the quota for the German MEPs. There is no EU-wide 3% quota.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 26th, 2014 at 12:15:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sweden has a 4% quota, same as parliament. Though with around 20 seats, it doesn't make that much of a difference.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Thu Feb 27th, 2014 at 02:29:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually, pollwatch already thought FDP would get in.

Not clear from Wikipedia how "others" 5-6 % breaks down.

What of the german pirates?

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Wed Feb 26th, 2014 at 11:53:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Germany will elect 96 MEPs. This means 1/97 ~ 1.031% of the votes guarantees a seat.

In 2009 there were three parties above 1% that got no seat, and nearly 6% of the vote went to parties getting fewer than 1% of the seats.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 26th, 2014 at 12:38:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]


A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Feb 26th, 2014 at 03:01:36 PM EST


Display:
Go to: [ European Tribune Homepage : Top of page : Top of comments ]