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Regional elections in France

by eurogreen Sun Dec 6th, 2015 at 04:27:15 AM EST

[UPDATED] Sunday evening 13th December

On Sundays 6th and 13th of December, regional elections will be held in France. It is to be expected that the Front National will win two of the twelve regions on the French mainland, with a possibility of a third or even a fourth.

The left held 20 of the 21 regions (before the recent mergers) in the previous two elections, in 2003 and 2009. Instinctively, one expected a near wipeout this time around, but France's electoral geography doesn't work like that. It will hold at least four this time, quite likely six or seven (my estimation), possibly even more...

[I will be updating this diary over the next week or so as the situation evolves]

SECOND ROUND RESULTS

Seven for the right; five for the left; zero for the FN. Oh, and one for the Corsican regionalists/nationalists.

CORRECTED national figures :

Right 40.6%, Left 31.6%, FN 27.4%

Bearing in mind the absence of the left in two of the most populous regions. But still...

Verdict : Sarkozy wins the second round on points.

[editor's note, by Migeru] Front-paged - use as an open thread.


It's a two-round election, proportional with a bonus for the leading list. Any list with over 10% can go to the second round; any list with over 5% can merge with another list between rounds. There is a bonus of 25% of seats for the leading list in the second round, which effectively guarantees a majority.

In practice, in all of the metropolitan regions, there will be three lists in the second round : left, right and FN. This map is based on the most recent poll result in each region : voting intentions for the second round. My own region, Auvergne Rhone Alpes, is deemed too close to call (between left and right). But in my opinion, all four of the light-blue regions also fall in that category.


The poll numbers for first-round voting intentions on the national level give rise to alarmist headlines : the lists of the FN and of the right are at 28 to 30% each, with the PS a poor third at 24% or so. But this ignores the fact that the FN will pick up basically zero extra votes in the second round, and the right very few. The PS lists, on the contrary, will pick up most of the votes from the Communist and Green lists, which are each around 5 or 6%. In fact, in three of the four "light-blue" regions, the sum of the first-round voting intentions for the left is greater than the sum of the lists of the right (excluding FN of course). Yet the voting intentions for the second round favour the right-wing list in each case. This illustrates the anger and demotivation that is widespread on the left, and the difficulty that many will have in voting PS in the second round. We'll have to see how that pans out in the second round... Looking at how the poll numbers have evolved in the past few months, it's remarkable that the attacks of November seem to have had practically no influence at all. Those who imagined a dramatic rise in the FN's numbers seem, so far, to be wrong.

[Monday morning update :]

The three dark-blue regions will be Republicans/FN duels next Sunday, after the Socialists withdrew their lists. Ile de France and Auvergne-Rhone Alpes (grey) seem likely to stay left. Others pretty much as coloured.

The headline national numbers :

Front National : 28%
Republicans and allies : 27%
Socialists : 23%
Greens : 6%
Communists : 5%
Abstemption :50%


Overall, a stunning defeat for Sarkozy's Republicans.

[Midweek update :]

In the end, the Northeast region PS list did not withdraw : despite orders and threats from Paris, and an attempt at getting at least 50% of the candidates on the list to withdraw, which would have invalidated the list.

So, it looks like Florial Philippot is the most likely to be the first FN leader of a region. Because in both the North and in Provence, the Le Pens are trailing, according to opinion polls : 47/53 for Marine, 46/54 for her niece. The PS strategy of withdrawing their lists seems to work; though as Mélenchon has said, OK to vote against the FN, as long as there is an actual difference with the other list. In the North, it's clear enough. In Provence, much less so : Marion Maréchal-Le Pen is old-time hard-right, moral conservative, like her grandfather, and like her opponent, Christian Estrosi.

Meanwhile, business as usual : the left lists have merged in seven regions, failing to do so only in Brittany. The PS had 34% there in the first round, and no doubt feels confident of victory; therefore turned down the offers of the Greens, judged too extremist (i.e. too demanding). Of course, the leader of the PS list is the war hero (sorry, Minister for Peace) Le Drian.

In all other regions where it is present, the PS has absorbed the Green lists, and the PC lists where these reached the 5% threshold. In the Ile de France region, the program of the united list calls for banning diesel in Paris...

Which brings us to the COP 21. Which looks like it's coming to an accord, which is better than no accord, and which might just boost the left... What is the FN's position on global warming, can someone remind me?

[Sunday 13th update :]

Voting closes in half an hour in cities, but the Belgian papers have already told us that the FN gets zero regions :

55/45 in both the North and in Provence, we get the allegedly moderate right and neither of the Le Pens.

More surprising, Philippot crashes out in the Northeast, despite a three-way wich was much to his advantage.

A number of close left/right races elsewhere, including Ile de France and Rhone Alpes...

Display:
We've cast our ballot earlier this afternoon. Apparently, there's a decent turnout, better than in 2010 says the media.

After that I went to a nearby Christmas market to shop for handcrafts. A lot of security theater at the entrance, with security folks (unarmed thankfully, we're still in France) checking you with metal detectors; so a bit of queuing before getting in. When I got out an hour later, I noticed a lone butterfly flying in the air; a reminder of the unusually mild temperatures of this early December: 10-12°C where it should be more around 5-6.

by Bernard on Sun Dec 6th, 2015 at 01:42:52 PM EST
As per French law, all poll results are embargoed until 20:00. Of course, our Belgian (or Swiss) neighbors are not subjected to it:

Les derniers événements et les premiers résultats des régionales françaises

Selon nos premières estimations, voici le rapport de forces national après le premier tour des élections régionales françaises.
Le Front national de Marine Le Pen obtiendrait 30,8%.
Les listes d'union de la droite et du centre totaliseraient 27,2%
Le Parti socialiste et ses alliés radicaux de gauche s'établiraient à 22,7%.
Pour rappel, lors des dernières élections cantonales, en mars dernier, le Front national avait fait 25,2%.

These are nationwide estimates; results from region will vary...

by Bernard on Sun Dec 6th, 2015 at 01:46:12 PM EST
I'm just back from counting votes. At my fairly bourgeois inner-city polling place, the FN is slightly ahead of the greens (it was the other way round in the last municipal elections), and the PS and Republicans are level (no change).

About 5% more voters than last time.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Dec 6th, 2015 at 03:05:10 PM EST
It looks like the PS will withdraw its lists in the Nord and Provence regions, where the FN got over 40%.

It's the decent thing to do. But it's asking a lot of the electors of the left : block the FN by voting for the right; particularly in Provence, where it's hard to distinguish between the two.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Dec 6th, 2015 at 04:26:59 PM EST
That's the two regions where the LePens can win: Marine in Nord and Marion in Provence.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Dec 6th, 2015 at 05:16:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Out of 13 regions (includes Réunion), 12 "Metropolitan" (incudes Corsica), 11 "hexagon", the FN is:
1st in 6
2nd in 2
3rd in 3
not in the second round in Corsica and Réunion.

That's pretty scary.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Dec 6th, 2015 at 05:03:46 PM EST
ZoneBourse: RESULTATS-Le FN en tête devant droite et PS aux régionales (06/12/2015)
ALSACE-CHAMPAGNE-ARDENNE-LORRAINE (sur 95% des inscrits)
Florian Philippot (Front national) 36,68%
Philippe Richert (Les Républicains) 25,62%
Jean-Pierre Masseret (PS) 15,90%

AQUITAINE-LIMOUSIN-POITOU-CHARENTES (sur 93% des inscrits)
Alain Rousset (PS) 30,20%
Virginie Calmels (LR) 26,88%
Jacques Colombier (FN) 23,78%

AUVERGNE-RHONE-ALPES (sur 85% des inscrits)
Laurent Wauquiez (Les Républicains) 32,34%
Christophe Boudot (Front national) 26,42%
Jean-Jack Queyranne (PS) 22,95%

BOURGOGNE-FRANCHE-COMTE (sur 99% des inscrits)
Sophie Montel (Front national) 31,50%
François Sauvadet (UDI-Les Républicains) 24,05%
Marie-Guite Dufay (PS) 22,99%

BRETAGNE (résultats définitifs)
Jean-Yves Le Drian (PS) 34,92%
Marc Le Fur (LR) 23,46%
Gilles Penelle (FN) 18,17%

CENTRE-VAL-DE-LOIRE (sur 93% des inscrits)
Philippe Loiseau (FN) 31,07%
Philippe Vigier (UMP-UDI) 26,20%
François Bonneau (PS-PRG) 23,99%

CORSE (résultats définitifs)
Paul Giacobbi (divers gauche) 18,35%
Gilles Simeoni (régionalistes) 17,63%
Camille de Rocca Serra (divers droite) 13,23%

LA REUNION (résultats définitifs)
Didier Robert (Union de la Droite) 40,36%
Huguette Bello (Union de la Gauche) 23,80%
Thierry Robert (centriste) 20,32%

LANGUEDOC-ROUSSILLON/MIDI-PYRENEES (sur 86% des inscrits)
Louis Aliot (Front National) 33,40%
Carole Delga (Liste PS-PRG-MRC-Génération Ecologie) 23,89%
Dominique Reynié (LR-UDI-Modem-CPNT) 18,69%

NORD-PAS-DE CALAIS-PICARDIE (sur 89% des inscrits)
Marine Le Pen (FN) 41,65%
Xavier Bertrand (Les Républicains) 25,12%
Pierre de Saintignon (PS) 17,34%

NORMANDIE (sur 99% des inscrits)
Hervé Morin (UDI) 27,87%
Nicolas Bay (FN) 27,79%
Nicolas Mayer-Rossignol (PS) 23,50%

PAYS DE LA LOIRE (sur 86% des inscrits)
Bruno Retailleau (Les Républicains-UDI) 34,42%
Christophe Clergeau (PS) 24,37%
Pascal Gannat (FN) 22,50%

PROVENCE-ALPES-COTE-D'AZUR (sur 64% des inscrits)
Marion-Maréchal Le Pen (FN) 42,87%
Christian Estrosi (Union droite) 24,24%
Christophe Castaner (Union gauche) 16,11%



A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Dec 6th, 2015 at 05:11:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]


A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Dec 6th, 2015 at 05:21:58 PM EST
Source: France Culture, 12 March 2015

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Dec 7th, 2015 at 01:08:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
My region is, indeed, too close to call tonight. The left lists add up to 35%, the right lists also. FN at 26%.

Just to point out : the only regions the FN can win are those where they scored more than 33% tonight (of which there are three)?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Dec 6th, 2015 at 06:03:35 PM EST
How does the 33% argument go?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Dec 7th, 2015 at 01:01:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's the 25% seat bonus given to the leading list in the second round. The remaining 75% are split proportionally. So 33.4% = 51%, or whatever.

Previous to 2003, it was a one-round, pure-proportional election, and I much preferred it that way : it requires everyone to engage in actual politics instead of dramatic posturing. The right changed it, because even with the FN at 10 or 15%, they found themselves hostages of the FN because of the "cordon sanitaire" policy.

There is talk of bringing back pure-proportional. Probably they would need to arrange the rules so that a minority executive could govern.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Dec 7th, 2015 at 03:23:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Looking ever-so-slightly better this morning, with full results in :

Republicans 31.73
Debout la France (neo-Gaullist) 2.86
That makes 34.59

PS 23.93
Greens 6.9
PC 5.39
Left total 36.22

(FN 25.5%)

Both Greens and Communists passed the 5% threshold, so can merge with the PS list. This is important for mobilising voters for the second round. It's doable.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Dec 7th, 2015 at 03:53:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I just saw the PS leader in Alsace-Champagne (the third region the FN can win), refusing to withdraw his list... we'll see.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Dec 6th, 2015 at 06:04:56 PM EST
Still no rebellion against Hollande on the horizon?
by generic on Mon Dec 7th, 2015 at 02:50:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Shit, no. Don't you know there's a war on?

Aubry is keeping her powder dry, biding her time.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Dec 7th, 2015 at 03:33:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So party insiders are duly impressed by Hollande's war presidency-ism? Voters apparently less so.
by generic on Mon Dec 7th, 2015 at 08:23:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Paris attacks last month and ensuing war posturing from Hollande have not changed much of the electoral patterns: the FN was already poised to make big inroads.

As for the PS insiders, it's way to soon to pull out the knives. Those who did last year (Hamon, Montebourg, Filippetti) have been marginalized and have pretty much disappeared from the landscape. You'll sooner see the CDU revolting against Angela...

by Bernard on Mon Dec 7th, 2015 at 03:33:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
FN was already poised to make big inroads.

Because of the Charlie Hebdo massacre?

Point n'est besoin d'espérer pour entreprendre, ni de réussir pour persévérer. - Charles le Téméraire

by marco on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 01:58:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
and is one of the loaded words the "bobo" press likes to throw around as a scare tactic.

The real phenomenon can be seen in the sociological breakdown of the voting public and their voting intentions, here is a very recent (by age) poll.

Note that FN is very strong among the young. You hear many things that talked about in the aftermath of this election, that the FN is the first party among workers, among the unemployed (and there are a lot more of those than there should be). That it is now the largest party if former bastions of the left. But look at the numbers - this is especially true of those who are young, and who have had the experience of trying to make a living, maybe starting a family, and not been able to do it.

Unemployment is very high among the young, and those jobs which are available (and this has been true for a almost a decade now) are temporary and often part-time, the average age one can find a stable employment is now up to 27 years of age, stable employment = ability to rent an appartment in large cities like Paris or Marseille. And this has been true for the past decade and most of the past three decades.

No other party has a viable solution for a large swathe of the french voting public - the young - and this is should also be seen against a backdrop where those young with a better education are also leaving the country more and more when they can.

This is a very rational response to economic factors. All the other parties have been in power in the past three decades (the job market in France has been mostly bad since the 1990's and people have long memories) and are more or less responsible for this mess and its association with the EU (whenever unpopular and anti-worker/pensioner provisions are adopted it is of course - Hollande, Sarkozy, Mitterand, Chirac, doesn't matter who is President the song remains the same - it is of course to put French legislation in line with EU norms in one way or another).

I know it is unpopular to say it, but a large segment of the voting public has no other credible choice.

by John Redmond (Ladybeaterz@NolesAD.com) on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 05:14:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's entirely predictable. The right - and let's include most of most of the ostensibly centre-left parties at this stage - have spent decades beating on workers, beating on the week, beating on the immigrants, beating on Islam, dog whistling to the racists and invoking and appealing to all our worst instincts. So we get Orban, the new Polish government, Tories that make Maggie look good, Trump and the FN.  And we'll get worse.

As predicted. As was obvious. And they think they can control it. Again.

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 05:52:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From Eurointelligence (email) The Germans are getting really nervous about Le Pen:
In a separate article [Handelsblatt] took a closer look at the FN's economic programme and concluded that it is full of pre-Marxist rhetoric, and drew parallels with that of the Nazi party in the early 1930s. Some of the phrases used are very similar. The FN wants to close borders, raise import duties, nationalise companies, increase minimum wages and reduce the pension age to 60, and get the central bank to monetise the deficit. The article quotes a number of German industry associations representatives who are saying that a Le Pen presidency would endanger the free-market system in the whole of the EU.


A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 06:43:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
John Redmond:
a large segment of the voting public has no other credible choice.

That's assuming that they see the FN as a credible choice. Very often, they are quite lucid about that too, and expect nothing in particular, but, well, fuck the other guys.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 02:40:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
FN was already poised to make big inroads.

Because of the Charlie Hebdo massacre?

Because of unemployment.

Fascism is the failure mode of liberal democracy, just like 80 years ago, and for the same reasons: wilful "liberal" mismanagement of the economy.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 06:39:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Every widening of state activity is looked upon by business with suspicion, but the creation of employment by government spending has a special aspect which makes the opposition particularly intense. Under a laissez-faire system the level of employment depends to a great extent on the so-called state of confidence.  If this deteriorates, private investment declines, which results in a fall of output and employment (both directly and through the secondary effect of the fall in incomes upon consumption and investment).  This gives the capitalists a powerful indirect control over government policy: everything which may shake the state of confidence must be carefully avoided because it would cause an economic crisis.  But once the government learns the trick of increasing employment by its own purchases, this powerful controlling device loses its effectiveness.  Hence budget deficits necessary to carry out government intervention must be regarded as perilous.  The social function of the doctrine of 'sound finance' is to make the level of employment dependent on the state of confidence.


Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 10:13:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"Fascism is the failure mode of liberal democracy"

Quoted for accuracy.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Wed Dec 9th, 2015 at 01:30:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Because of unemployment.

i.e. post-2008 unemployment, right?

Point n'est besoin d'espérer pour entreprendre, ni de réussir pour persévérer. - Charles le Téméraire

by marco on Mon Dec 14th, 2015 at 02:16:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Paris attacks boosted both the FN and the PS, by two or three points each, at the expense of the right (and of the ecologists...)

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 02:51:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He backed down this morning. So that makes three regions where the PS (polling less than 20% in each case) has withdrawn their list, making the second round a duel between FN and Sarkozy's Republicans.

Did I mention that this election is a huge defeat for Sarkozy's Republicans? This is a mid-term, for christ's sake, with the most unpopular president of the Fifth Republic. The right should be all over the PS. Yet they seem likely to beat the left in... three of the twelve regions, by my count (perhaps less). And may win three others, with the help of the left.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Dec 7th, 2015 at 03:32:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Marine Le Pen is not alone, and that is a real problem for the EU - Guardian
Far-right parties are setting the agenda across much of Europe, leaving Germany increasingly tempted to go it alone

...She is not alone. Next door in Belgium, Bart de Wever, the mayor of Antwerp and leader of the Flemish nationalist and separatist party the New Flemish Alliance, voiced satisfaction with the French outcome. His is the strongest party in Belgium. In Denmark and Sweden, in the Netherlands and Austria, in Switzerland too, far-right nationalist movements are all leading in the opinion polls as the single most popular parties.

... even if they are not tested in office, the far-right parties are shaping policy-making and setting the agenda across much of Europe.

... In eastern Europe, the nationalist right is already in power in Hungary and in Poland. Viktor Orbán in Budapest is the pioneering cheerleader. ... In Poland, Jarosław Kaczyński and his Law and Justice party in Poland are wasting little time in aping Orbán's constitutional trickery to entrench itself in power.

On the critical issues of the day - immigration, security and Euroscepticism - there is little to separate Orbán and Kaczyński from President Miloš Zeman in Prague and Robert Fico, prime minister of Slovakia, both on the left. Besides, on economics, the role of the state and welfare, the far-right parties are way to the left of social democracy, seeking to turn the clock back to state interventionism, full employment, generous pensions and welfare systems (for native whites, not immigrants).

Right-wing nationalists left of mainstream social democracy? Sadly, that just speaks to the vacuum generated by the third way.

What these far-right parties in east and west all share are chipped shoulders heaving with grievance - summed up as hostility to and rejection of globalisation and multiculturalism. They do not like modern life.

...Rather than Britain, it is Germany that is the real exception to the Europe-wide trend. The question is for how long.

Though Germany is behind the curve on this development, I can assure you it's catching up. With Merkel's bungling of long-term strategic European issues and worsening inequality we are moving towards sizeable nationalist right-wing minority parties. EU over?!

Quote of the day, by a second generation Turkish immigrant:

"They always think: yeah, all those Turks again. But most of those criminals are Lebanese or Syrians." says Çağlayan. ... He feels sorry for the people who come here out of desperation says Çağlayan. "But by now I think the Nazis are right when they say the refugees are destroying our country. They should piss off!"
Yes, this is happening. Who knows? Maybe mainstream political parties have been too busy for politics.

Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Mon Dec 7th, 2015 at 04:17:39 PM EST
epochepoque:
In Denmark and Sweden, in the Netherlands and Austria, in Switzerland too, far-right nationalist movements are all leading in the opinion polls as the single most popular parties.

Not in Sweden (despite insistent international news), unless one counts (and only counts) the Yougov webbpolls.

epochepoque:

Besides, on economics, the role of the state and welfare, the far-right parties are way to the left of social democracy, seeking to turn the clock back to state interventionism, full employment, generous pensions and welfare systems (for native whites, not immigrants).

Not in Sweden. Unless one counts their rethoric about what could be afforded if Sweden kicked out the foreigners and ignore their actual budget propositions.

by fjallstrom on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 06:45:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Far-right parties are setting the agenda across much of Europe, cheerfully encouraged and supported by the German governmentleaving Germany increasingly tempted to go it alone
Fixed it for you.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 10:16:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
that is nonsense and you konw this.
by IM on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 10:20:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm sure Brünning said the same to those who took him to task for the rise of his pet fascists.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 12:31:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh please. Do you really want to claim anybody in Germany wanted PiS victory? nuts.
by IM on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 12:55:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Do you really want to claim Brünning wanted a DNSAP victory? Nuts.

The fact is that Germany has, for next to thirty years now, been if not the instigator and leader of then at least the loudest and most influential shill and hatchet man for pro-fascist economic policy.

After thirty years of completely consistent commitment to pro-fascist economic policy, I think we can move SPDCDU from the "willful gross negligence" to the "malicious intent" column without any loss of predictive power.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 01:59:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The real history brüning wanted a move to the right yes. Quite different situation. The rets of yiours is as so often opure babbling.
by IM on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 02:55:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The real history brüning wanted a move to the right yes.
That's an interesting variant of history you're promoting.

The one the rest of the world subscribes to holds that he didn't want a Nazi victory, but given the need to coalition with either the Nazis or the communists (because the conservatives and their SPD collaborators could no longer command a majority), he picked the Nazis.

The SPDCDU has not yet been tested on that particular parliamentary situation, but their relative treatment of Fidez and Syriza is not encouraging.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 03:12:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"That's an interesting variant of history you're promoting."

That is what actually happened. That was what Bruening wanted in 1930. Did of course get more then he bargained for.

Syriza? That is the ruling party in Greece, right?

Hungary is not even in the eurozone. Neither is Denmark or Poland or sweden or other playground sof the right.

"but given the need to coalition with either the Nazis or the communists (because the conservatives and their SPD collaborators could no longer command a majority), he picked the Nazis."

Wow. In what alternative universe happened that?

by IM on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 03:19:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Syriza? That is the ruling party in Greece, right?
Not under any definition of "ruling" that includes full hardware and software control of the computers of the Ministry of Finance. I think that having to accept that an occupying power installs rootkits on your treasury's servers is a pretty good indication that you're a caretaker government.

For that matter, I think being able to transact fiscal policy without your enemies holding line-item veto over your spending is also a pretty basic component of rulership.

but given the need to coalition with either the Nazis or the communists (because the conservatives and their SPD collaborators could no longer command a majority), he picked the Nazis.
Wow. In what alternative universe happened that?
I assume you're conversant with the distribution of seats following the 1933 election, yes? The one that resulted in a parliament where the conservatives and their SPD lackeys were in a minority and forced to choose between handing power to the redshirts or the brownshirts.

They picked the wrong wing, as you'll recall.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 03:33:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am talkin about 1930 and of course 1932. 1933 Bruening was already finished, including his own party. If you wnat to complain abiout his party, go ahead.
by IM on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 03:36:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"They picked the wrong wing,"

who is they, by the way?

by IM on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 03:39:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In 1933 the options were:

  • Schleicher dictatorship backed by the president.
  • Papen dictatorship backed by the president.
  • Hitler dictatorship backed by the president.

Hindenburg and the small group around him did indeed choose wrong, but the choice was no longer in the hands of the parliament. And none of the choices would result in democracy.
by fjallstrom on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 06:20:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
IN the real world the big sponsor, down  to actual money, of the right in europa is Putin.
by IM on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 02:59:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In the real world, the far right can't buy electoral victory on the sort of budget Putin offers. Unless, of course, they're helped by the sort of unemployment numbers we've been seeing lately. Then they can buy victory on a shoestring.

Remind me again, IM, who is responsible for European unemployment?

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 03:18:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"In the real world, the far right can't buy electoral victory on the sort of budget Putin offers"

worked quite well in France right now.

"Remind me again, IM, who is responsible for European unemployment?"

I will guess: jewish-freemasonic Bundesbankers?

by IM on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 03:23:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Remind me again, IM, who is responsible for European unemployment?"

I will guess: jewish-freemasonic Bundesbankers?

Thanks for playing, but no cigar.

The answer is "failure to engage in debt monetization".

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 03:28:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In the real world, the far right can't buy electoral victory on the sort of budget Putin offers
worked quite well in France right now.
You need to prove that. With data.

Which you can't, because the data shows that support for the far right correlates to unemployment, not to Russian-sponsored slush funds.

Remind me again, IM, who is responsible for European unemployment?
I will guess: jewish-freemasonic Bundesbankers?
That's a clumsy dodge. I wasn't asking what you thought I think.

I was asking who you think is culpable.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 03:39:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You need to prove that. With data.

exists for FN.

And unemployment doesn't explains much in Scandinavia or indeed Poland.

by IM on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 03:43:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am not conversant with the Polish data, but the Scandinavian data bears out the correlation between ugly parties and un(der)- and precarious employment.

For your little conspiracy theory to work for FN, you need to prove not merely that they took money from Putin, but that this money would have allowed them to succeed in a less for them advantageous employment situation.

Which you can't, because FN's gains correlate strongly to un- under- and precarious employment.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 03:48:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"For your little conspiracy theory to work for FN, you need to prove not merely that they took money from Putin"

The finacial and ideological ties are facts. And I never claimed that he is the only factor.

by IM on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 03:57:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I never disputed the ideological ties, and I'm sure the Russian foreign service knows how to buy color revolutions.

But if you're not prepared to argue - with data - that they are material contribution, then you're just prevaricating.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 04:08:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And you still haven't fingered the party or parties to blame for Europe's present level of unemployment.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 03:51:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Dec 9th, 2015 at 10:53:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is that supposed to be some argument?
by IM on Thu Dec 10th, 2015 at 06:46:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's a request to stop dodging the question: Who is to blame for European unemployment (and minijobbers, and notionally self-employed, and what have you)?

Someone is to blame, because having unemployment is a political decision, and those don't fall out of the sky fully formed.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Dec 10th, 2015 at 09:47:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
", because the data shows that support for the far right correlates to unemployment,"

Doesn't explain the far right in northern Italy or Flanders, by the way.

by IM on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 03:47:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Given that you are now actively denying a correlation that exists everywhere else I've seen data for, and given that I've already caught you in one ecological fallacy this evening, I'm going to have to insist that you substantiate that denial. With data.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 03:50:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am not denying anything. I just pointed out that you as usual simplified to much. I have now to prove that Northern OÌtaly and norhtern Belgium are ricjher then the rets of the country?
by IM on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 04:00:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, you need to prove that the people who vote for Lega Nord are less at risk of un-, under- or precarious employment than the people who don't.

You do understand what the ecological fallacy is, right?

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 04:06:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As far as I know both movements mentioned are middle class parties. Not working class. Same thing in Switzerland. Or indeed the UK.  
by IM on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 04:17:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
For UKIP, that's just simply not what the polls say.

And you still haven't told us who you think is to blame for the current state of European unemployment.

Unemployment being always an entirely political decision, never a necessity, someone has made the political decision to have unemployment now. So who do you think that is?

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 10:49:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Does unemployment explain Pegida in Sachsen, or AfD?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Dec 9th, 2015 at 12:21:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Fear explains these movements. The unemployed and the poor do not usually organise, and neither AfD nor Pegida represent them. Far right movements mainly consist of white middle-class males who enjoy all the privileges of being white, middle-class and male, and who would hate to lose these privileges. That's what they expect, though.  

26.11.2015: Nach rechts: Kleinbürgertum in Abstiegsangst (neues-deutschland.de)

Wenig verändert hat sich die Sozialstruktur der Rechtspartei: Es ist eine Organisation, die vor allem von Menschen mit durchschnittlichen und guten Einkommen gewählt wird (rund 45 Prozent gaben in beiden Umfragen mehr als 3.000 Euro Haushaltseinkommen an), der Anteil der Menschen mit guter Bildung lag in beiden Umfragen bei um die 50 Prozent, es sind vor allem erwerbstätige Angestellte und Selbstständige, die AfD wählen würden. Stark verschlechtert haben sich unter den Petry-Jüngern und Höcke-Mitläufern die selbst empfundenen Aussichten was die eigene wirtschaftliche Lage angeht.

Bei einem Thema heben sich die AfD-Anhänger in Umfragen stets besonders ab: Wenn insgesamt 17 Prozent in einer Umfrage der Forschungsgruppe Wahlen meinen, es werde hierzulande »zu viel für Flüchtlinge« getan - wird dieser Durchschnitt auch von einem hohen Wert bei den AfD-Anhängern nach oben gedrückt. Unter diesen meinen 80 Prozent, den Asylsuchenden hierzulande gehe es zu gut. Sagen 44 Prozent aller Befragten, es gebe eher Nachteile durch Zuwanderung, sind es bei den AfD-Anhängern 85 Prozent. Keine Überraschung ist, dass auch das Verständnis für die rechten Pegida-Aufmärsche unter Wählern der Rechtspartei mit 83 Prozent mit Abstand am größten ist, auf den Plätzen folgen die Anhänger der Linkspartei (17 Prozent) und der Union (15 Prozent).

Und doch liegt der gemeine AfD-Wähler zum Beispiel in klassen- oder innenpolitischen Fragen in jenem »Mainstream«, der sonst so gern von der Rechtspartei attackiert wird. Das Verständnis für den Lokführer-Streik zum Beispiel war unter ihnen genau so gering wie unter den Wählern der Regierungsparteien. Danach gefragt, ob eher die SYRIZA-Regierung oder die europäischen Institutionen der Schuldige für die Konflikte bei den Verhandlungen über Milliardenkredite für Griechenland waren, zeigte der AfD-Anhänger weit mehrheitlich auf die linksgeführte Regierung. Und als im Mai dieses Jahres danach gefragt wurde, ob die Geheimdienste hierzulande endlich stärker kontrolliert werden sollen, stimmten dem die AfD-Anhänger zahlenmäßig am wenigsten zu.

by Katrin on Wed Dec 9th, 2015 at 11:12:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"The unemployed and the poor do not usually organise, "

And don't vote. The lower the participation, the more the electorate skews older, more educated, richer.

Turnout in the french regional elections was 50% amnd that is mostly the turnout in state elections in eastern Germany too.

by IM on Wed Dec 9th, 2015 at 11:29:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not really. Saxony is not poorer then the rest of the east. It is much more right-wing though and has been for some time. The east is generally much more responsive to xenophobia.

It is popular to explain on the left to explain right-wing voters with economic conditions but that ignores their ideological convictions like xenophobia, sexism, nationalism etc.  

by IM on Wed Dec 9th, 2015 at 11:13:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Economic conditions tend to increase the susceptibility of populations to xenophobic politics. The base level depends on local culture.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Dec 9th, 2015 at 11:23:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Remember to include minijobbers in your tally of the unemployed when you compile that statistic...

But what probably actually drives it is the rate of change in the perceived risk of experiencing unemployment. It's not the poor who radicalize fascist (in the absence of a credible communist faction, they mostly radicalize mafia) - it's the lower middle class who are seeing themselves slide into poverty who radicalize fascist.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Wed Dec 9th, 2015 at 01:28:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"But what probably actually drives it is the rate of change in the perceived risk of experiencing unemployment"

That is not quite same as the level of unemployment, is it?

So what you are arguing now is the change in level of perception of risk of unemployment and that is only somewhat vaguely connected to economic developments.  

by IM on Thu Dec 10th, 2015 at 06:44:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I would have said the loss of economic power/privilege.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Dec 10th, 2015 at 07:00:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That is why it is the middle class - they had power/privilege to lose while the lower class did not. But, if there is a strong fascist element and a weak mafia element many out of the lower class will affiliate with the fascists.
 

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Dec 10th, 2015 at 10:31:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If you think the perceived risk of loss of employment does not correlate to one's social proximity to rising unemployment, then you are living in a fantasy world.

And leaving the effect on fascist sentiment entirely aside, unemployment is still, so long as society refuses to adequately subsidize the subsistence of the unemployed, a crime against humanity. So in your view, who is to blame for that crime at present? Someone is responsible, and if you don't like the finger being pointed at your friends in the SPDCDU, then you need to provide a more plausible perpetrator.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Dec 10th, 2015 at 09:50:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Far-right parties are setting the agenda across much of Europe, unwittingly supported by an oblivious and narcissistic German government. cheerfully encouraged and supported by the German governmentleaving Germany increasingly tempted to go it alone
Double fix.

Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 01:24:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That would be plausible if these policies were a new invention of Stasi 2.0 and #QueenOfEurope.

They are not.

Germany is perpetrating the same economic crimes on the rest of Europe that it perpetrated on the former East Germany (leading, to the surprise of absolutely nobody who was actually paying attention, to all sorts of nasty brownshirts crawling out of the woodwork in the former East), and before that on its own people during the Wiemar era.

Once is an accident.

Twice is incompetence.

Thrice is willful.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 02:03:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That makes some assumptions about German politicians learning from history that seem unwarranted.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Dec 9th, 2015 at 11:25:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not that it matters. Murder or manslaughter, it's still their fault.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Wed Dec 9th, 2015 at 11:38:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"Quote of the day, by a second generation Turkish immigrant:"

assimilation works!

by IM on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 10:24:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
"assimilation works!" = We'll know that when 2nd generation Turkish-Germans can join the Nazi party and start to do so in numbers comparable to their portion of the overall population. :-)


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 12:26:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
any day now.
by IM on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 12:56:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
RussEurope: Régionales: deux leçons (7 DÉCEMBRE 2015)
... Car, s'il y a un vainqueur à ce premier tour, il y a aussi très clairement un perdant : le P«S». Cette défaite est historique, si on la remet en perspective. Elle signe l'accélération de la transformation de ce parti en un instrument politique de la bourgeoisie mondialisée et de la petite-bourgeoisie associée. Telle est la première leçon qu'il convient de retenir. ...

...

Une première estimation montre que le vote pour le Front National est concentré à l'est de la fameuse ligne Le Havre - Marseille qui fut utilisée pendant des générations par les géographes pour distinguer une France de la Grande Industrie (et urbaine) d'une France agricole et rurale. Dans cette France de l'Est, le Front National arrive en tête dans 4 régions et les «Républicains» dans 2 seulement. Le P«S» n'est nulle part en tête. Cette typologie est confirmée par l'ordre donné aux préoccupations des français lors de ce vote[3] :

  • Le Chômage
  • La Sécurité
  • La Délinquance
  • L'Immigration
Or ces régions sont, à l'exception de la région parisienne, des régions à fort taux de chômage. ...

...

[Les listes «socialistes»], qui disparaissent des anciennes zones ouvrières (et la déroute dans le Nord comme dans le Grand-Est est symptomatique) ne connaissent des succès que dans des régions où se développent une industrie liée aux loisirs (sur la côte atlantique) et des activités de service. Ceci est parfaitement cohérent avec les choix de politique économique qui ont été fait ces dernières années et qui ont visé à « adapter » le tissu industriel et social aux conséquences de la mondialisation et de l'Euro. Les résultats que le P « S » enregistre dans Paris (à la différence de l'Île de France) confirment que ce parti a bien changé de nature et qu'il est devenu le parti des élites mondialisées et des couches sociales qui sont tributaires de ces dites élites. La répartition des votes lors du 1er tour des élection régionales ne fait que rendre visible cette transformation, que l'on peut considérer comme achevée. Cette transformation est le véritable sujet de ce 1er tour des élections régionales. C'est ce qui explique la décision imposée par le gouvernement au parti de procéder à un retrait des listes car ce gouvernement est clairement entièrement composé de partisans de la mondialisation et de l'Euro.



A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 06:36:04 AM EST
The Irish Economy blog: Slow train wreck (December 7th, 2015)
... there are also economic factors that are having a predictable impact on attitudes (and if they are predictable, then economists don't have the right to ignore them). Globalisation creates losers as well as winners, for example, and if no-one really cares about the losers, and we just pay lip service to the problem, then it is predictable that there will be a backlash. The Euro has not only locked in a set of distorted real exchange rates, but a macroeconomic policy mix with a pronounced deflationary bias. If times remain tough enough for long enough, and politicians hear your pain but don't actually do anything about it, some people will eventually respond by voting for candidates who reject existing constraints on policy making. "Europe" is increasingly experienced as a set of constraints preventing governments from doing what their people want them to do, rather than as a means of empowering governments to collectively solve problems.

So why would anyone be surprised that Mme Le Pen has done so well; and is it not likely at this stage (though 2017 is a long way away) that absent major policy shifts she will come first in the first round of the Presidential election? And let there be no mistake: if she actually won the second round, either then or in 2022, this would mean the end of the EU as we currently know it.

What is so frustrating about all this is that it has been so predictable. Here are some links dating back to 2010, a year that risks being viewed by future historians as a fateful one...



A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 06:57:58 AM EST
"... this would mean the end of the EU as we currently know it."

Gasp! Not that!!! Such a loss!

They tried to assimilate me. They failed.

by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 01:55:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I've never seen the words Fascism and Nazi used so frequently at ET ... and we have the topper ... Trump ... here in the US. Along with the Paris Global climate summit being a bust ... truly humans are ... oh, forget it.

They tried to assimilate me. They failed.
by THE Twank (yatta blah blah @ blah.com) on Tue Dec 8th, 2015 at 01:51:46 PM EST
There has been remarkably little Godwinning in this election. But this was irresistible.

Marion Marechal Le Pen, referring to the Socialist support of her Republican opponents, said that it reminded her of La Grande Vadrouille, a WWII comedy :

to which a socialist replied that he'd rather play Bourville (the big comedian) than the Germans.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Fri Dec 11th, 2015 at 02:31:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Opinion poll in Provence gives the Republicans beating the FN, 52/48 (i.e. within the margin of error). The detail of the voting intentions is more interesting than the headline numbers :

  • A majority of under 23s vote Le Pen
  • Strong male/female differentiation
  • Education level. Strong FN majority for Le Pen for all those whose highest level is finishing high school (Bac). Strong non-Le Pen majority for all those with higher education.

And the party breakdown. Half of Green voters intend to stay home.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Fri Dec 11th, 2015 at 02:23:54 AM EST
Le Pen (and Italy's Salvini) are being handed power principally by Europe's dismally schizophrenic policies with immigration, with the common currency policy (old rich protecting the conservative gerontology) making it a two-fer.
The fake left of yer Miliband/Hollande type need a fake right with yer Berlusconi/Sarko types leading it.

It has been hilarious watching the media try to help the right get its mediatic shit together in Italy, but the right here is broken by 20+ years of cult of personality, and now we see Salvini making points too. He is pro-fascist, so far only with immigrants. Voters hate him south of Rome, he couldn't even get out of his car in Sicily die to public anger recently.

Le Pen and he are virulent nationalists and with the EU growing its power by kicking its weaker members in the teeth, and incompetently creating then failing to solve the immigration tensions, one loony terra attack here (and France had three in less that a year) and Lega votes will multiply just as in France. Tell people what to be freaked out about and they will enthusiastically comply. Chump in the US, same.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sat Dec 12th, 2015 at 06:31:12 AM EST
Voter participation is up several percent, at 5pm it's already over 50% nationally, which was the final rate in the first round.

Looking like at least 55%, perhaps more. Can't be a bad sign... surely...

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Dec 13th, 2015 at 11:33:54 AM EST
According to Le Soir, who, being Belgian, are not subjected to French embargo laws, the FN didn't take any region: North and Provence, thanks to the PS lists withdrawing for the second round (will go to former ministers of Sarko governments), but also in Champagne-Lorraine-Alsace where the vote was "triangular" (PS, LR & FN).

Oh, and the PS (lead by Le Drian, presently Minister of Defense) is expected to keep Brittany.

by Bernard on Sun Dec 13th, 2015 at 01:25:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The bad news is that the right gets most of the regions.
My region, Auvergne Rhone-Alpes, will be governed by that fils de pute Wauqiez. A man with a great destiny, apparently.

Too close to call for the moment in Ile de France, Burgundy, and Centre.

So, it looks like the abstentionists of the mainstream right re-mobilised a bit better than those of the left.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Dec 13th, 2015 at 01:51:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In Corsica: Gilles Simeoni leading a Nationalist coalition has reportedly unseated the incumbent Paul Giacobbi (PRG).
by Bernard on Sun Dec 13th, 2015 at 02:07:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was in Lyon yesterday. I picked up a copy of Le Canard at a newsagent downtown, and the newsagent pointed out that it was the last copy. I asked why was it so hard to find a copy, and he explained that that is often the case when something major happens in France. He added that it is the last bastion of democracy in France, to which I wholeheartedly agreed.

(Then he switched to Italian. I seem to have acquired an Italian accent in French, and the French seem much keener to speak Italian than English....)

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sun Dec 13th, 2015 at 02:38:57 PM EST
It is also that there's been a lot of immigration from Italy in Eastern France (Lyon, Grenoble, Marseille, but also Lorraine), hence a number of people who have some knowledge of Italian. You might not be so lucky in Western France, where Spanish or Portuguese - or even English - will be more likely.
by Bernard on Sun Dec 13th, 2015 at 02:53:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oops, it seems the right won Ile de France. 44/42, with the FN down to 12%.

Three regions still very close :
Normandy and Centre, both with the left slightly ahead of the right, and
Burgundy, the left slightly ahead in a genuine three-way, with the FN around 32%.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Dec 13th, 2015 at 03:20:08 PM EST
According to Wikipedia the second round resulted in no regions for FN, and the left losing about half of them to the right.
by fjallstrom on Mon Dec 14th, 2015 at 09:11:24 AM EST
yeah, see my update above...

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Dec 14th, 2015 at 01:54:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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