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Reversing Brexit?

by Frank Schnittger Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 12:42:05 PM EST

With signs of buyer's remorse already becoming widespread, Simon Wren-Lewis tries to think through how the result of the Brexit referendum might be reversed:
mainly macro: Just how bad will Brexit be, and can it be undone?

But a second referendum would not be necessary if, as a result of Cameron's resignation, the UK fought a general election where the winning side explicitly campaigned not to invoke Article 50. This general election would become the second referendum.
For this to happen three rather difficult but not impossible things have to happen. The first is that the Labour leadership need to stop talking about `respecting the will of the people' and focus on how the Leave side are already owning up to their lies and false promises. The second, and perhaps most difficult, is that Labour need to form a united front on the basis of a Remain ticket, involving the LibDems, Greens and SNP. This is the only way the Conservatives and most of the tabloid press will be defeated. Third, the new Conservative leader has to be forced to hold a general election before Article 50 is invoked.

I have responded with the following comment (awaiting moderation and not yet published):


"Some things, when broken, cannot be fixed, or at least it becomes so difficult to do so that it is best to move on and create something new to replace them.  Why on earth should the SNP now join an alliance dedicated to reversing Brexit and preserving the Union? I think Scottish Independence within the EU now has to be taken as a given in any future scenario.

Secondly, why would an England beset by financial woes and led by Johnson and Farage continue to pour more money down the drain of N. Ireland than they ever paid to the EU? Ireland will re-unify, not because Unionists (or even some non-aligned and nationalist voters) want it, but because Northern Ireland will be dumped by England. Unionist emotional and family ties are more with Scotland in any case; their economic interests increasing aligned with the Republic of Ireland and the EU.

Lastly, why would the EU - already in an existential crisis - act generously towards their tormentors and welcome the UK back? Frankfurt has the prize of taking over the City's role already in it's sights.  The German car industry will just have to find other markets elsewhere - politically discredited as it is.

So we are left with a rump England and Wales, angry and embittered, the outcasts of Europe, who have made life difficult for their friends in Gibraltar, Scotland, and Ireland. They will have to face their own demons without external bogeymen to blame:- the internal English class divisions, north and south, young and old. When those issues are resolved, perhaps England/Wales will once again be ready to join the nations of the earth and make a constructive contribution to the comity of nations and international relations in general. Before then, not so much..."

Am I being unfair and too hard on the Brits? Will the anger subside and a more reasonable accommodation be reached on all sides? Personally, I think Simon Wren-Lexis is clutching at straws. Something has been irrevocably broken, and all sides are better off "keeping calm and getting on with it."  That is how the Brits always liked to perceive themselves, and I can't see them going cap in hand to the EU now, or ever again.

Display:
suspects say it will be. The same folks who told us most European economies had to engage in serious budget rigour in the face of the biggest deleveraging event since the 1930's are now convincing everyone, even on the putative left, that Brexit is almost the end of the world. I suspect they are wrong now, just as I know they were wrong then.

To be sure, as with any major societal shift, there will be winners and losers. And for those who might be properly left-minded, time to mobilise to protect your constituency. Just as you ought to have done the past generation, and largely didn't.

Time to let the dust settle. Rumours of England's demise may well be premature. And all this hysteria about the fall in the value of the pound (8%? John Major would have been tickled pink to see only 8%) is just silly. Exporters are going to be happy as clams with this, and the good news? It probably will be lasting.

The bad news? England needs to rebuild its export sector.

by John Redmond (Ladybeaterz@NolesAD.com) on Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 02:01:22 PM EST
The economics of it is basically a non-issue.  Britain will be a bit poorer than it otherwise would've been, but they'll be encouraging domestic production and also consuming more domestically-produced goods and services, which could have some benefit to workers there.  There will be upsides and downsides depending on how the negotiations shake out.  Such is the case with all public policy.

As for the global economy, the impact seems likely to be fairly marginal.  Right now, you're watching some segment of the markets panic, some segment of the markets trying to make money off the panic, some segments of the market thinking in terms of how this likely impacts this or that EU member down the road politically, etc.  And I'm sure there will be statements by politicians and other officials that will send markets leaping and diving in the coming weeks.  The truth is -- it's largely irrational, because no one knows how this is going to shake out.

Britain's a very large economy.  It is not US/EU/China-large.  And when you think it terms of trade flows and potential tariff rates and even (say) the potential of the City losing its New York-y status in the European market, the impact globally is, I think, likely to be almost unnoticeable.

The larger issue, to me, is that Britain looks possibly like the canary in the coal mine.  The disease of the euro has infected the larger perception of the EU, and xenophobia and racism are clearly on the rise across Europe and the US.  Brexit emboldens those people.  And the Brits aren't even the most anti-EU group within the membership.

Brexit wasn't some noble battle by fair-minded people punishing wrongdoers.  Brexit was Trumpism with posh accents and worse suits.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 02:38:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Trumpism.

But there is a good left case for Brexit too. And we need to make it when Nexit and Frexit come.

The formal left (Socialist Party) is anti-EU. The most powerful left standard bearer in France, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, is now anti-EU. And 5 Stelle in Italy, and Unidos Podemos in Spain.

We should dwell less on how the campaign in the UK degenerated, and more on how we can do it right, stay to the real issues, forcefully and respectfully.

If I were Jeremy Corbyn right now, I would say to my working class base, who just voted Brexit massively, and say "when I am Prime Minister, I will invoke article 50 and go to Berlin and Brussels and negotiate the best deal I can for you. And then, I will set about a new deal for all English and Welsh, to re-invest in ourselves, to ensure your children's prosperity and equal chance to a fair life". Or something along those lines.

Obviously, the Labour pearl-clutchers in London would rather have his head on a platter, but I am hoping he has some balls.

by John Redmond (Ladybeaterz@NolesAD.com) on Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 02:52:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"Formal left in the Netherlands"
by John Redmond (Ladybeaterz@NolesAD.com) on Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 02:53:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
 And 5 Stelle in Italy_

A common misconception due to drawing false conclusions from Grillo making nice with Farage in order to have a voice in Europe. An ugly marriage of convenience which created some bad blood.
They applauded the referendum as democratic. (Italy forbids referenda on international treaties, a law many are asking to be changed.)
They are for exit from the EZ if the public choose to. They have a petition already active for that.

They would prefer transform it from within, 180 degrees different than Farage.
Actually they have great plans for the EU, and are already making waves in Brussels.
Salvini followers would have voted for exit, 5* probably about 50/50 either side. The 'remainers' are stridently critical of Renzi's kowtowing to Merkel, and banksters tyranny to name just two issues.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 10:08:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Britain will be a bit poorer than it otherwise would've been, but they'll be encouraging domestic production

Unlikely. The UK doesn't really have any concept of a local economy any more. All of that practical stuff was largely delegated to Europe, because the British ruling class is fundamentally clueless about running a modern economy.

The UK has always had plenty of talent, and does well in the arts + media, in engineering, in defence (ugh...), scientific research, and tourism. There's also a strong farming and food export sector.

But the last forty years of Thatcherism have single-mindedly retooled the economy as an international casino.

Now that's being thrown away, no one in charge has any idea how to think differently. All the other sectors in the economy are slightly baffling to the Thatcherites.

Real men speculate and boldly screw over employees and competitors. They don't make things, they don't grow things unless they can shoot them for fun, and they certainly don't treat other people - and other countries - as equals.

The referendum is a symptom of the same issue - the staggering incompetence of the British political process. It's not just corrupt in all the traditional ways, it's essentially delusional.

In a sane world, narcissistic nobodies like Cameron and Boris would be kept far away from power - possibly in a zoo, or put on tour for public entertainment.

In the UK these idiots are typical of the class that runs things. They're pickled in imperial history and are still fighting WWII, the Napoleonic Wars, and the Spanish Armada.

The rest of Europe - except for the banking sector - has a nodding acquaintance with the 21st century. The UK is still struggling with the 19th.

If we'd had the same attitude in the 18th and 19th century that we have now, the industrial revolution would never have happened because the establishment would have been pining fondly for the pre-civil war monarchy.

So that's why we're fucked. If Boris becomes PM he has no clue what to do next. Nor does anyone in Whitehall. And while people who do know what to do next exist, they're not going to be on the Christmas card list of anyone who matters.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 10:34:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Could be worse.  Could be the US.  We've been dismantling skilled and semi-skilled trades and their training programs for a half-century.  When I last worked in a factory 35 years ago, I was the only one of my generation with any machining skills.  We weren't training anyone because everyone was going to sit behind a desk in a FIRE industry.  It's a lot worse now.  We'd have to import piles of people in order to get manufacturing off the ground, and that ain't happening.
by rifek on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 03:27:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Ordinarily, one would expect a £ devaluation to help the UK manufacturing sector and give them a competitive advantage relative to imports.  However if that sector is as decimated as you and others suggest then you have all the disadvantages of devaluation - importing inflation etc., and none of the advantages.  It will be pensioners and workers on relatively fixed incomes who will bear the brunt - rising costs of living with no compensating increases in income.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 04:03:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
We'd have to import piles of people in order to get manufacturing off the ground.
This is simply not true. There may well be a problem of scale, but many tailored instruction programs that provide exactly the needed skills have been set up in a number of areas, including my current town of Mountain Home. The community college, ASUMH, has specialist programs in welding that supply capable welders to local boat manufacturers, including Ranger Boats, a national leader in fishing boats. Required skills include heliarc welding for aluminum boats. They have also set up a training facility with a modern, computer diagnostic system, for auto techs. There is a strong robotics program in the middle and secondary schools, supplemented by many offerings at ASUMH, and programs for nursing, which graduates are always in demand in hospitals, clinics and nursing homes here and country wide. We could benefit from federal investment starting with grants instead of loans for tuition, books and living expenses. And grants to states for use in building and running new research facilities at universities would be a great help.

I agree that we have hollowed out our manufacturing base. But that could quickly be turned around with different trade policies and federal support for new manufacturing start-ups. What is most critically needed is to downsize finance back to between a tenth and a fifth of its present size and regulation to prevent financial sector criminality and looting. The latter would largely take care of the former. The result would be like a 30% tax cut on our society.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 05:10:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Glad Idaho is doing something, but if they're just teaching heliarc/GTAW (That's TIG for all you Euros.), that isn't fixing things, because all GTAW is good for is thin aluminum, not the industrial applications we need.  Our list of shortages is extensive: tool-and-die, machinists, fitters, pattern makers, metal workers, electricians, plumbers, etc., etc., etc.  Areas I'm familiar with or have connections in (Washington, Oregon, Midwest, Northeast) have their programs racing the wrong way.  Here in Utah we have a sick joke.  They set up tech centers that are supposed to train trades, but the administration just got sacked for gaming the system by pushing people to certifications no one needs and the students weren't really qualified for.  Meanwhile they want to convert our last community college, which still offers tech programs, to a four-year school.  Just what we need, more bachelors degrees.
by rifek on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 12:45:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That is Arkansas and not Idaho, and they are teaching heliarc because that is what local manufacturers need. Other welding besides. Seems we also have a national shortage of certified welders. Here the actually consult with local manufacturers and businesses before deciding what to set up and get programs that train workers for available jobs. That is critical in Arkansas as we have one of the lowest rates of 4 year degrees to the population size.

Other programs I have seen featured on news programs or in articles describe similar approaches in rust belt locations. This is not an insoluable problem now. Wait until the people with the knowledge die out and it will be. We have retired tool and die makers locally - for now.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 12:57:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Oops, wrong Mountain Home.  Anyway, definitely a shortage of welders and every other skilled trade (and I mean actually skilled, not just holding a piece of paper from some for-profit diploma mill).
by rifek on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 05:26:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The certificates are from for credit courses at Arkansas State University Mountain Home.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Jul 1st, 2016 at 10:00:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
From what I know of the UK, the problem may be deeper than a lack of skilled workers and appropriate training and certification processes.  When I worked in management in the UK I was shocked at the disdain in which people who actually made things - real things - were held.  The guys who were good at power point presentations - marketeers, accountants, strategists, consultants, lawyers etc. - were held in high regard.  But the managers who were good at motivating others, team builders, who mucked in when some disaster happened were held  in contempt.  They were't really made up of the right stuff...The trick was to move on before the sh!t hit the fan.

There is a huge class divide in the UK between manual, skilled and "knowledge workers". Industrial firms have been asset stripped and leveraged out of business.  Industrial areas have been gutted. Sure, some smaller family businesses have survived, but lack ambition, capacity and capital to expand even if demand for their products expand.  It simply isn't sexy. It's what the kids who were considered dumb in school do.  Factory work is what you are threatened with if you don't do your homework at school.

So my guess would be that reviving English industrial regions and manufacturing more generally will take a long time, and a lot more than better training courses.  Sure, there are some (often foreign owned) manufacturing businesses like Vauxhall, BMW and Tata, but overall, Manufacturing has declined as a share of GDP and employment levels and investment in R&D is lower than in other OECD competitors.  Some of these located in the UK primarily because of England's access to the Single Market.

The bottom line, manufacturing is unlikely to come to the rescue of England's economy, even with a prolonged devaluation of the £.  The English economy is driven by the City, and it is financial services which are the easiest to relocate to another jurisdiction.


Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 09:05:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's not limited to manufacturing, it's Management v Employees everywhere. In my company (IT multinational), the employees forum and union voices from the 'continent' are continually amazed at how negative and adversarial the relationship is in the UK.

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sapere aude
by Number 6 on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 02:41:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Tata aren't going to be there much longer. They attempted to close down all their steel mills because they couldn't compete with cheaper chinese steel (which only comes into EU cos UK govt vetoed tariffs).

The indifference of the govt was such that the Industry minister initially refused to fly back from a junket in Australia when the closures were announced.

Now that a rescue package has been put together it is entirely dependent on access to EU markets and finance, both of which are now in danger.

It's a total mess.

The exit side always talked about UK exports, but they were mostly financial services, which are dependent on being inside the EU. We don't make anything anymore, Thatcher saw to that.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 03:39:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Uppity cliques are a big thing in Britain, I reckon. Managers, owners, financiers...

Once in a London(?) hotel, I was met with unveiled condensation why I didn't pay for a better room. And cashiers in a cheap supermarket were ridiculously slow, as if to give "adequate" service to unvashed masses (and ignorant visitors like me).

by das monde on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 07:00:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
England trying to take away the reputation that for so long Paris had?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Jun 28th, 2016 at 01:00:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
yes, that more or less sums up what I think will be our future too. In two years time the EU will hand us a dirty great big anchor and kick us off into the Atlantic.

Ten years form now, people will wondering "didn't there used to be a country over there once?" And people will shrug and go "Meh"

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 06:54:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Which Brexit? The UK needs a government willing to send a request for exit to Brussels first. It is not in sight. This farce can go on forever. Fear and resentment will grow and make the ultra-right stronger.
by Katrin on Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 02:09:28 PM EST
It'll take an act of parlaiment to move forward towards formal invocation of article 50.

Brussels and Berlin could simply respect the legal democratic process of a fellow member state, couldn't it?

Oh, wait.

by John Redmond (Ladybeaterz@NolesAD.com) on Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 02:24:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No.  Referendums are purely consultative in the UK.  Parliament is Sovereign.  It is up to Government to invoke article 50,  without that, formally, nothing has happened yet as far as the EU is concerned.  The referendum is a purely internal affair so far until Article 50 is invoked.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 03:24:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I expect the EU to say something along the lines of, "Well, when you bring us a Section 50, we'll get this straightened out.  In the meantime, though, since it's painfully obvious you allow the hopelessly naive, the thoroughly senile, and the certifiably insane to vote, please just stay over there if you'd be so good."
by rifek on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 04:21:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Fear and resentment will grow and make the ultra-right stronger.

That has never bothered EU elites while they have been imposing 'austerity'. Seems just another mask.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 02:42:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I just assume that the Elites are getting exactly what they really want.
by das monde on Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 03:38:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If they get a distracting right wing clown as PM that may well be 'exactly what they want'. But I have to wonder how long Boris will last - if he is even able to form a government. I don't have any idea how many Tories might not vote for Boris, or, if the do vote for him as PM, how long they would support him if/as he actually pushes for Brexit. What I would like is a government that the elites would really hate, one that would embrace MMT and prosperity for UK citizens, whether in or out of the EU. (Only possible because the EU is not part of the EMU.)

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 06:32:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They thought they were getting exactly what they wanted n Nazi Germany as well.  Hitler was going to be their tool for continuing business as usual.
by rifek on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 04:24:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What the Brits want or do not want is only one factor - and may not even be the biggest factor.  The EU wants them gone as quickly and painfully as possible.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 03:53:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"biggest" should be "big"


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 03:58:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It WILL get interesting as more and more time passes without the UK making an Article 50 request. Perhaps Brussels can devise an alternative way to dump the UK. EC meetings are already being called w/o Cameron being invited.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 06:37:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Schauble bad cop, Merkel good.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 09:56:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Suggestions on the BBC today that the EU bigwigs are annoyed that Cameron resigned, but accept that little will happen till the new PM comes in.

It will probably be Boris but there's a lot of muttering going on that there's a strong "over my dead body" sentiment on the Remain side of the Tory party. But that will probably make the Tory party in Westminster unmanageable.

tbh, there's so many things that might happen or should happen that I'm not sure the UK will have a functioning government until well into next year. And that's not taking into account the high probability that there will be a General Election. We're New Belgium right now. There are so many plots and counter plots going on it's hard to keep pace with it all. I thought I'd be depressed but it's sort of fun to watch their distress.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 07:07:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The only party in parliament that (a) has a clue and (b) is unified is the Scottish National Party.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 07:19:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sturgeon to lobby EU members to support Scotland's bid to remain

Nicola Sturgeon is to directly lobby European Union member states for support in ensuring that Scotland can remain part of the EU, after Scots voted emphatically against Brexit on Thursday.

The first minister has disclosed that she is to invite all EU diplomats based in Scotland to a summit at her official residence in Edinburgh within the next two weeks, in a bid to sidestep the UK government.

After Scotland voted 62% to 38% to stay in the EU, she plans to begin immediate discussions with the European commission to "protect Scotland's relationship with the EU and our place in the single market".



She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 03:51:09 PM EST
Spain will never allow this precedent to occur.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 11:23:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If the Germans want it, Spain will fall in line.  Can get around the Catalonia Thing by saying Scotland is the member of a United Kingdom, they are already a member, and the Kingdom of England and Wales leaving doesn't affect Scotland's membership.

How's that for a line of BS to get around the problem?

(And I'm not even a lawyer!)

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 11:42:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How about this: England & Wales leaves the UK. The United Kongdom of Scotland & Northern Ireland remains in the EU.
by Gag Halfrunt on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 12:14:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So they will find a king?
Quickly, who can trace their family tree back to Wallace!


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sapere aude
by Number 6 on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 02:43:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Half of Scotland and >10% of the US?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 03:10:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I stand corrected!
(That's on the scale of Harald Hårfagre in Norway.)

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sapere aude
by Number 6 on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 03:32:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, that was a guess and a question.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 05:52:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The British are frantically Googling what the E.U. is, hours after voting to leave it
Awakening to a stock market plunge and a precipitous decline in the value of the pound that Britain hasn't seen in more than 30 years, voters now face a series of economic shocks that analysts say will only worsen before they improve. The consequences of the leave vote will be felt worldwide, even here in the United States, and some British voters say they now regret casting a ballot in favor of Brexit.

"Even though I voted to leave, this morning I woke up and I just -- the reality did actually hit me," one woman told the news channel ITV News. "If I'd had the opportunity to vote again, it would be to stay."

[...] Google reported sharp upticks in searches not only related to the ballot measure but also about basic questions concerning the implications of the vote. At about 1 a.m. Eastern time, about eight hours after the polls closed, Google reported that searches for "what happens if we leave the EU" had more than tripled.

by das monde on Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 04:22:21 PM EST
The pensioners who voted en masse for Brexit think Google is a brand of ice lolly.
by rifek on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 04:28:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Look, they voted for it.  If they're having buyer's remorse -- well, sorry, that's democracy.  Think it through a little more next time.  Brexit won, fair and square.

And how widespread the sentiment is isn't really sufficiently provable short of another referendum, which means negating the one that just took place for no reason other than "Some silly girl on the Beeb regrets her vote because the pound tanked the next day and her trip to Vietnam just became more expensive."

As Maher said of little guys griping about oil-industry favoritism back in 2001 -- sorry, little guy, think it through a little more next time.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 07:31:28 PM EST
But the EU tradition is if you vote the wrong way you get to vote again, or we just ignore the vote (Greece). How were they to know that this time is different?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 08:21:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Haha, hilariously true.
Walking it back at this point will screw the Tories even more.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 10:13:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Haha, hilariously true.
Walking it back at this point will screw the Tories even more.
Corby's right to have kept his powder dry. Let Boris sink his own ship.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 12:29:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
<shrug> Advisory vote with not much in the way of constitutional basis.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 09:20:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sure, the legal implications of the vote itself are nil, but the political will drive the legal.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 10:32:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The political here meaning xenophobes rioting in the streets if they don't get their way.

They may be a minority, but they're mad, they're pissed (both meanings), and they're not going to take it any more.

There's already much shouting from Team Leave of the "Get on with it already" kind.

They tend to violence and psychosis anyway - see also, one dead MP - so you don't tell them "No" without being very careful about what happens next.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 10:39:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I wasn't aware that the current day UK had that much of a problem cracking psychos over the head - or worse. How bad could it get with the xenophobes?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 11:30:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, they only hit lefties/strikers over the head.

Right wing terrorists are usually their drinking buddies so the most threatening thing they're gonna say to a thug from Combat 18 is "it's your round mate"


keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 09:29:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, basically/unfortunately.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 12:16:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Fortunately, the pensioners rioting in their walkers and wheelchairs isn't much to fear.  Corbyn placates the Labour Brexiters, and that leaves the UKIPs and the Tories who can't bring themselves to admit they're UKIPs.  If they take to the streets, there will finally be an excuse to round them all up, put them on a small island in the Shetlands, and then sink the island.  Perhaps Scotland's parting gift to the UK.
by rifek on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 04:38:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My feelings on the possibilities for Scotland and NI, as an Irishman... Basically, my worry is that a NI cast off from an England/Wales rump as Frank indicates would cause vast problems for both sides in NI... Sinn Fein would be keen to force a reunification and I really doubt the Unionists would find that appealing.

Therefore, I  think a possible future to safeguard the peace process is some kind of federation between the three nations (RoI, NI & Scotland), all within the EU. While, personally I'm not in favour of reunification (I think it would be an economic disaster for the republic), I also think that we have enough of a shared history in the three countries that might balance the Unionist & republican communities in the North. As Frank says, Unionist emotional and family ties are more with Scotland anyway.

The Federal Republic of Ireland and Scotland anyone? :-)

by piobar on Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 07:43:58 PM EST
Works in the US.  Well, it used to.
by rifek on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 04:44:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Works for me.
In the 1990s, I was genuinely convinced that the Nation State, invented in Europe in the 18th century and imposed on the rest of the world in the 19th, would finally wither away within the supranational embrace of the EU.

Laughable naivety eh. Well, I think it's time to at least start blurring the lines. In a properly-functioning EU, national borders are increasingly irrelevant. Which is, of course, why national politicians have worked so very hard to sabotage it, because they haven't yet worked out how they can avoid irrelevance in such a framework.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 05:34:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I've been told NI is an economic basket case, kept running by UK charity.  I don't see why either the Republic of Ireland or a newly independent Scotland, with all the problems of a new nation, would want to federate with NI.


She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 06:23:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
To avoid a festering abscess at their doorstep? (or at least try to contain it)
by Bernard on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 06:32:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Given the reality of Unionist thuggery, I'd say having NI causing problems on the other side of a locked door is better than having it causing problems on the inside.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 07:21:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
To be honest this is my reason for not wanting reunification - that and the fact that clearly there would be large numbers of people in NI not happy with the situation. I could see immediate violence again... My thinking for a federation is purely altruistic: keeping a lid of the problems in NI. I doubt that Scotland or the RoI would be keen to be honest...
by piobar on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 12:18:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There has never been a Scottish/Irish relationship, other than through the Northern Irish Scottish protestant connection and some vague feeling of a common Celtic heritage. There is certainly some fellow feeling, especially a common distaste for the Sassenach (English), but this has never translated into any sense of unity.  In addition a newly Independent Scotland will have plenty of problems of its own.

While Sinn Fein will campaign strongly for the United Ireland option, many more hard headed southerners and northerners will dismiss that as romanticism in the face of the the €11 Billion annual subvention the North gets from Westminster.  So long as that remains on the table, I can see no change in attitudes in the North.

However if the North were to lose both that subvention and EU subsidies, I could see attitudes there changing very quickly. It is in the south were a pronounced reluctance to take on that liability will kick in.  Unless the EU were to provide some kind of transition financing, it would simply not be economically feasible.  There would also have to be transitional political mechanisms - e.g. the N. I. Assembly remaining in place and handling local matters for at least a 10 year period.

However in the longer term, there is no reason why Ireland, north and south, could not replicate the relative economic success of the south.  There might even be some added synergies from having a larger local market, increased mobility, reduced duplication of administrative overheads etc.

However all of this is predicated on the transition being essentially peaceful, and that is a very big ask indeed. Social change happens very slowly and can take several generations. Unless some way can be found to overcome fears of cultural domination and address local deprivation it could be very messy indeed.  No one will want to touch it with a bargepole, and yet, were England to withdraw the subvention, people would have very little option. We live in interesting times...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 12:54:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I suppose everyone but Sinn Fein is now trying to figure out how to say they don't want a united Ireland without saying they don't want a united Ireland.
by rifek on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 05:35:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The petition for a second referendum now passed 2.3 million and it increases by a thousand every few seconds. I don't know what the excuse to actually organise it could be (the 60% yes, 75% turnout limit surely can't be effected retroactively), but it would be interesting if Britain followed those repeated referenda you reminded us in your other diary in changing the result at an even higher turnout.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 08:04:07 PM EST
it's a fake, 4chan are owning up to it.

Large numbers of the signatures are from "The Vatican" and "North Korea"

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 09:33:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I've just downloaded the data which is freely available and 60 of the signatures are from Vatican City and 32 are from North Korea.
by dahuk (dahuk . hiddenborder @ com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 10:54:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The petitions commission reported yesterday already that they dumped 77,000 fraudulent signatures.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 05:07:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not "fake" but "rigged". Apparently, the British parliament couldn't set up a proper authentication. But yesterday already, they announced the dumping of 77,000 fake signatories from this petition.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 05:08:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
SNP site because the "real site" (sic) is annoying.  :-)

Scotland now supports independence by almost two-to-one margin, says historic poll:

Should Scotland be an independent country?

Yes 59%
No 32%



She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sat Jun 25th, 2016 at 09:14:00 PM EST
Bearing in mind that the result was always going to be close, and that the Conservatives are no mugs, I think we can safely assume that Cameron and Boris have more or less agreed in advance on the scenario that will play out in the current case.

This will of course have taken into account the buyers' remorse syndrome, and the centrifugal forces coming to bear on the UK.

So when Cameron says he won't invoke Article 50 but leave it to his successor, and it turns out that his successor won't take office until October, and Boris announces there's no hurry for Article 50...

this gives the upended British political scene the time to calm down, straighten up its clothing, and settle down to business as usual.

If it is indeed a stitch-up, then the scenario probably goes like this : Boris does indeed become PM; government policy veers even further right; Boris takes an aggressive posture towards the EU but basically settles for the package negotiated by Cameron; and the conservatives steal the Brexit Labour vote, based essentially on Boris's populist persona and communication skils.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 09:44:46 AM EST
For what it's worth buyers remorse seems like an invention by the remain side. Making the leave side out to be idiots to make themselves feel better.

And I see no hope for the Tories to catch any Leave voters if they now chicken out on sending a letter to Brussels.

by generic on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 10:06:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
i'm just beginning to get up to speed because the final week of Borssele was intense focus, but i thought the EU "leaders" were already preparing a quick show of force. Aren't they already preparing the measure to force Brexit?

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Ana´s Nin
by Crazy Horse on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 10:46:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There is no institutional measure which can force Britain to start the Article 50 countdown. What we are seeing so far is that the informal ad-hoc arrangements that have the real power in the EU will exclude the UK wherever possible.

Which will further illustrate the putsch that has happened since 2008.

I'm trying to find an angle which allows me to hope that the movement for transparency and democracy in Europe gets a boost from these events. Despite all the propaganda, the UK would not have voted to leave a less dysfunctional and undemocratic EU.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 10:55:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Has anyone read the DiEM25 version yet?

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Ana´s Nin
by Crazy Horse on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 06:42:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Here's a start :
DiEM25 Members about the Brexit vote - DiEM25
Walter Baier


"We deplore the Leave outcome of the EU Referendum. The referendum itself came from pressure from the far right - driven by anti-immigration sentiment, fuelled by racism. Britain has decided to leave the EU but the British ruling class remains and will exacerbate its aggressive policy of austerity and demolishment of social protection and welfare systems. We believe in democracy and in the right of national self determination but neo-liberalism cannot be defeated in a single country only. The problems Britain faces result from the neo-liberal, deregulatory, anti-working class policies imposed by successive British governments, not from immigrants and refugees. These problems are European and international. They require solidarity and cooperation across national boundaries.."



It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 07:04:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The "package" negotiated by Cameron has lapsed.  The EU, with one voice, is calling for the UK to go quickly.  There is NO appetite toTheir bluff has been called...! give the UK a better deal, or to even negotiate with them.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 11:33:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Brexit: Wave of racial abuse and hate crime reported after EU referendum | Home News | News | The Independent

More than a hundred incidents of racial abuse and hate crime have been reported since the UK voted to leave the European Union.

Many of the alleged perpetrators cited the decision to leave the EU explicitly.

One video, purportedly filmed in Hackney on the morning after the referendum, shows a man arguing with someone in a car before yelling: "Go back to your country."

In British news comment sections, I saw Brexiters outright deny that the vote had anything to do with racism.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 08:04:15 PM EST
The leavers don't have a plan for what to do



keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 06:57:20 AM EST


keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 06:58:52 AM EST
He doesn't quite make up for y'all sending us Niall Ferguson and Andrew Sullivan, but it's a start.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 11:31:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I don't know who Andrew Sullivan is, but if Niall Ferguson is anything to go by, that's probably a good thing.

We also sent you John Derbyshire, but he's so far on the right that you probably can't see him through the flatulent hulk of Rush Limbaugh

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 12:16:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Andrew Sullivan - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

...Sullivan is a conservative political commentator, a former editor of The New Republic, and the author or editor of six books. He was a pioneer of the political blog, starting his in 2000. He eventually moved his blog to various publishing platforms, including Time, The Atlantic, The Daily Beast, and finally an independent subscription-based format. He announced his retirement from blogging in 2015.[1]

Sullivan's conservatism is rooted in his Roman Catholic background and in the ideas of the British political philosopher Michael Oakeshott.[2][3]

Born and raised in England, he has lived in the United States since 1984 and currently resides in Washington, D.C.,[4] and Provincetown, Massachusetts. He is openly gay and a practicing Roman Catholic.

I learned of him when he was a vocal supporter of the Iraq War.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 01:25:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
He was one of those who recanted:

Andrew Sullivan - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Sullivan supported the 2003 invasion of Iraq by the United States and was initially hawkish in the war on terror, arguing that weakness would embolden terrorists. He was "one of the most militant"[23] supporters of the Bush administration's counter-terrorism strategy immediately following the September 11 attacks in 2001. He wrote a controversial essay for The Sunday Times in which he stated, "The middle part of the country--the great red zone that voted for Bush--is clearly ready for war. The decadent Left in its enclaves on the coasts is not dead--and may well mount what amounts to a fifth column."[51] Eric Alterman wrote in 2002 that Sullivan had "set himself up as a one-man House Un-American Activities Committee" running an "inquisition" to unmask "anti-war Democrats", "basing his argument less on the words these politicians speak than on the thoughts he knows them to be holding in secret".[52]

Later, Sullivan criticised the Bush administration for its prosecution of the war, especially regarding the numbers of troops, protection of munitions, and treatment of prisoners, including the use of torture against detainees in United States custody.[53] Though he argues that enemy combatants in the war on terror should not be given status as prisoners of war because "terrorists are not soldiers",[54] he believes that the US government must abide by the rules of war--in particular, Article 3 of the Geneva Conventions--when dealing with such detainees.[55] In retrospect, Sullivan said that the torture and abuse of prisoners at the Abu Ghraib prison in Iraq had jolted him back to "sanity".[23] Of his early support for the invasion of Iraq, he said, "I was terribly wrong. In the shock and trauma of 9/11, I forgot the principles of scepticism and doubt towards utopian schemes that I had learned."[23]



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 01:27:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
wow, sounds like a complete prick. A man who not only campaigns to promote war crimes but attempts to publicly shame those who object.

But as he's a gay conservative, I suppose that self-contradicting hatred is just part of the package.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 02:25:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Complete prick indeed: I remember surfing away from CNN when he was on.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 04:48:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This probably sums up how some senior Brexiters are feeling today



keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 01:02:48 PM EST
If they backtrack and don't exit, won't that mean 17 million more votes for UKIP? Or is everyone sure they are too cowardly to actually make that step?

(I don't believe the EU elite will allow any backtracking. An example must be made pour encourager les autres.)

-----
sapere aude

by Number 6 on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 02:49:12 PM EST
Then the EU will have descended into illegality.

This was a consultative, non-binding referendum. Should the UK government choose to not then invoke article 50 (arguing, for instance, that it was a close result and thus acceptable and prudent in times of turmoil to not radically change the UK status, had it been 70/30 of course we would have done it and so on...) then the EU would have no legal right to do anything about it.

Of course, neither would they have any need to give back the Finance commissioner position to the UK - something I felt they should never have done in the first place. The UK would have lost a lot of its remaining influence, but would still be in.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Tue Jun 28th, 2016 at 06:33:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
True. It's up the UK Government, when there is one.

And the UK Government that made that decision would have "thrown away" the recently negotiated changes. Suicide.

-----
sapere aude

by Number 6 on Tue Jun 28th, 2016 at 09:44:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I do not think that anybody is going to reverse Brexit. It is just not gonna happen. Article 50 is going to be invoked very soon.
by rz on Tue Jun 28th, 2016 at 12:59:45 PM EST
But who will do the invoking?
by generic on Tue Jun 28th, 2016 at 01:11:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I understand that there is no ant-EU Majority in the House. But in the end I think the Tories will use there majority and invoke Article 50.
by rz on Tue Jun 28th, 2016 at 01:48:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I like Brit-bashing as much as the next European, but...
Fintan O'Toole: How Europe's leaders can fix the union

What does the leadership of the European Union need to do to save the union?

First, show some humility. In the immediate responses to Brexit, there is no acknowledgement that this is a divorce with faults on both sides. The view from Brussels seems to be that English voters inexplicably and with no provocation walked out on a warm and loving home. But while Brexit is indeed made in England, it has component parts of EU origin. The blunt reality is that the lies and distortions of the Leave campaign were credible to a majority of voters because there are truths behind them - arrogance, complacency, bad economics, a democratic deficit that everyone recognises but that still goes unaddressed.

Does being an Eurocrat mean never having to say you're sorry? Without conceding to the wild exaggerations of the Brexiteers, the EU's leaders should acknowledge their own failures and start talking about what they themselves need to do to restore to the union the public confidence that has been lost in many more member states than the UK.

Second, lay off Greece.



It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed Jun 29th, 2016 at 06:11:44 AM EST
If a UK government really wants to have a new referendum, but still wants to respect the result of the existing one, I think it could invoke article 50, negotiate the exit-package and then have a referendum on the exit-package or withdraw the article 50 invokation.

Sure, there is actually nothing in article 50 about withdrawing invokations. But claim it is somewhere in the unwritten constitution, refer to "in accordance with its own constitutional requirements", and bet that since the EU establishment does not really want UK to leave anyways, it might just work.

by fjallstrom on Wed Jun 29th, 2016 at 12:13:03 PM EST
After all, the Brits know more about unwritten Constitutions than anyone else...

I still can't see the EU giving the Brits a better deal.

Exit negotiations are about negotiating the terms of exit - the transition mechanisms and what relationship remains after exit. They are not about changing the terms of membership.  

If the Brits want to do that, they would have to conduct informal parallel negotiations and then offer voters a choice between the outcomes of two sets of negotiations.

That would give the EU an incentive to be really hard line in the formal Article 50 negotiations.  

I can't see a way of construing this as a win for the UK.  They have badly damaged their negotiating position...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jun 29th, 2016 at 01:26:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The UK already has the best deal it could hope for. It is not the EU's fault that Blair accelerated the immigration rate as a favor to his City buddies and the UK got all those 'Polish plumbers'. If Corbyn would own dumping the Blairites he could say that. They have just this week given plenty of pretext.

How else can the UK or, for that matter, Scotland and Northern Ireland, get the same deal of UK membership without membership in the dysfunctional Euro and EMU? Taking proper advantage of the UK's sovereign Pound and the opportunities that offers a left government COULD 'make the UK great again', certainly in comparison to the members of the EMU.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Jun 29th, 2016 at 04:34:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am not saying they would get a better deal, I am saying that if they negotiate the exit-package and it is clear that the real choice is EEA - plus perhaps some crums - or EU, then a UK government that wants to remain in the EU could use the results as a way to motivate a new referendum. Never saw this coming, etc.

And then they might get "EU". Or they would get "EEA". But it would be a way to get a do over and still respecting the result of the first referendum.

by fjallstrom on Wed Jun 29th, 2016 at 05:27:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"I still can't see the EU giving the Brits a better deal."

Well, in fact, I would be very annoyed if they were able to keep the February concessions.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Thu Jun 30th, 2016 at 10:30:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Frank:
I think Scottish Independence within the EU now has to be taken as a given in any future scenario.

Then Scotland will have to accept having the Euro as their currency. That could take them from the pan to the fire - unless a miracle occurred and the EMU and ECB, along with the direction of economic policy in the EU were totally reformed - in a good way.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Jul 2nd, 2016 at 12:01:47 AM EST
ARGeezer:
Then Scotland will have to accept having the Euro as their currency.

That is not a prerequisite to EU membership. Many of the recent members aren't part of the EZ and don't even have a "target date" (and never may at this rate).

by Bernard on Sat Jul 2nd, 2016 at 07:48:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But then they will have to keep the English (sic) pound or adopt the Unicorn.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sat Jul 2nd, 2016 at 11:30:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Republic of Ireland used the British £ until 1979 - i.e. for over half a century after independence It then Introduced the Irish £ - linked to the European Exchange Rate Mechanism - and with a different rate to the £, and finally the Euro in 2002.  The question of whether Scotland can continue to use Sterling post independence is partially dependent on the goodwill of the English.  But at least they have other options.  

In general -despite the depredations of the ECB, the Euro has been good for the Irish economy, and I would not like to see a re-introduction of the Irish £.  The problem with a small open economy having its own currency is that the exchange rates can be gamed by even a medium sized hedge fund and there were wild fluctuations in its value often unrelated to economic fundamentals.  Inflation was high, and interest rates often higher. I recall paying 14% interest on my mortgage...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Jul 2nd, 2016 at 01:52:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Somewhere I had gotten the idea that the EU was now requiring new applicants to join the EMU if they wanted in to the EU. Is that something they tried but found unworkable?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Jul 2nd, 2016 at 04:53:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Or is there the formal expectation that they will join the EMU at some time?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Jul 2nd, 2016 at 05:01:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
All new applicants must join the Maastricht treaty without exceptions.

However, in order to actually join the Euro a member state must fulfill the Euro convergence criteria, that would be:

Consolidated version of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union/Title VIII: Economic and Monetary Policy - Wikisource, the free online library

  • the achievement of a high degree of price stability; this will be apparent from a rate of inflation which is close to that of, at most, the three best performing Member States in terms of price stability,

  • the sustainability of the government financial position; this will be apparent from having achieved a government budgetary position without a deficit that is excessive as determined in accordance with Article 126(6),

  • the observance of the normal fluctuation margins provided for by the exchange-rate mechanism of the European Monetary System, for at least two years, without devaluing against the euro,

  • the durability of convergence achieved by the Member State with a derogation and of its participation in the exchange-rate mechanism being reflected in the long-term interest-rate levels.

So if a state have to high debt, to high increase in debt, to high inflation or has its currency floating against the euro it is not allowed to join the euro club. Yes, this was set up in the belief that the important task would be to keep the unworthy out.

In theory the Commission could fine states for not doing enough to join, but in practise that would back-fire. So Maastricht is mandatory, but euro is in reality optional.

by fjallstrom on Mon Jul 4th, 2016 at 10:14:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thousands at 'March for Europe' Brexit protest - BBC News

Demonstrators at the "March for Europe" rally, organised on social media, held placards saying "Bremain" and "We Love EU".

In the referendum on 23 June the UK voted to leave the EU, with 51.9% in favour of leaving and 48.1% supporting Remain.

Critics said that those protesting who lost the vote were "having a tantrum".

Demonstrators gathered around Park Lane before setting off for Parliament Square. A rally also took place in York.

An organiser of the London march, Keiran MacDermott, said protesters hoped to stop the government from triggering Article 50, which begins the formal process of the UK's withdrawal from the EU.

by Bernard on Sat Jul 2nd, 2016 at 06:35:29 PM EST
They should have done so before the referendum.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sat Jul 2nd, 2016 at 06:40:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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