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Spain votes again

by Migeru Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 06:01:37 PM EST

There have been two events in the last week of campaigning for Spain's repeat election that could have influenced voters. Interior minister Jorge Fernández Díaz was recorded two years ago conspiring to spy on separatist politicians, and the tapes were leaked on Tuesday; and, of course, Brexit.


There are three possible government possibilities after today: a left government possibly supported by the right wing Basque nationalists (EAJ/PNV), a conservative-liberal government, and a grand coalition.

The best model based on poll averages last Monday gave a 30% chance of a left majority and a 1/6 chance of a right majority. The right-wing Basque nationalists are expected to get 3-6 seats and UP + PSOE can expect at least 170 seats together less than half the time. The Basque nationalists, though right-wing, are unlikely to support the strongly unionist PP + C's minority government.

There is a more than one-in-four chance that only a grand coalition will be a viable alternative to repeat elections.

Which option is realised depends largely on PSOE internal politics. The new government could be delayed until September by a PSOE leadership contest and overdue party conference if the party loses second place to Unidos Podemos (2:1 odds). Pedro Sánchez might not resign immediately, arguing that the bad election results were the best that could be expected under the circumstances.

The Brexit result could have a last-minute impact on the Spanish election: investors sold out of both the pound and the euro, except German Bunds, widening Spain's risk premium. This could help the the PP and, to a lesser extent, the PSOE, by scaring voters as political scientists believe voters react to uncertainty by choosing safer options, or at least known ones.

The Fernández Díaz case was bad for the PP despite trying to spin it as a violation of the minister's privacy. Catalan separatists have certainly been mobilised by the revelations, compensating for the disappointment of the recent failure to pass a budget in Catalonia.

Exit polls are out at 20h today.

Display:
Exit polls! Exit polls!

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 06:13:35 PM EST

PP 117-121
UP 91-95
PSOE 81-85
C's 26-30
ERC 11-12
CDC 5
PNV 5-6
Bildu 3-4
CC 1

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 06:17:25 PM EST
!! That looks unbelievably fabulous... What's the catch?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 06:21:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
On these numbers, the PSOE would be suicidal not to do a UP + PSOE government with PNV support.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 06:23:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
On those numbers, they don't need no stinkin' Basques.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 06:29:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

PP 121-124
UP 87-89
PSOE 84-86
C's 29-32
ERC 10-11
CDC 6
PNV 5
Bildu 2
CC 0-1

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 06:21:31 PM EST
So, the low end of the less-favourable exit poll puts the left just short of a majority; all other options give an Iglesias government : Unidos Podemos + PSOE.

Unless the PSOE should choose to betray everything it ever stood for, which is probably the modern thing to do.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 06:26:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The low end of the COPE poll gives UP + PSOE + PNV 176.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 06:32:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Which equals to 50%+1?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 06:45:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Precisely.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 06:53:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
People vote too much.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 06:41:11 PM EST
Tried the Monarchy Thing and it didn't work so good.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 07:11:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Which option is realised depends largely on PSOE internal politics

Which are? I read the earlier PSOE-Podemos deal was killed when Susana Díaz, leader of Andalusia, wanted to stage a coup against Pedro Sánchez, who then became an unwilling partnewr for Podemos to save his ass as party leader. Is this a "no second seat to the commies" gut reaction (like the German SPD's attitude towards the Left Party), or something more concrete?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 06:43:23 PM EST
The deal-breaker for the PSOE has been any threat to "national unity", i.e. any discussion of Catalan or Basque independance. Which are a fundamental part of the program for the Podemos coalition.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 06:55:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The PSOE has even said they would refuse a minority government that required the abstention of the separatists, that is ERC, CDC and Bildu. PNV is the only acceptable nationalist ally for the PSOE.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 07:00:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That's it.

See this articlr for the attitudes of Sánchez and Díaz. Older PSOE figures want nothing to do with Podemos.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 06:58:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Important to remember.. the number of seats which are "dancing" thanks to the way seats are allocated in Spain is around 20. They are distributed by left-over votes in districts going from small (5 seats) and large districts like Madrid or Barcelona (with more than 20 seats) meaning that they can go to one party or another by small amount of votes

This measn PP can go as low as 105-110 and as high as 135-140.

The average in a spanish post-vote poll does not have the accuracy nor the meaning in the typical statistical sense...given the low number of votes that can change one seat. It is like the UK elections but on steriods.

Looking at catalonia..and given the seats the poll indicates may change ont he margin, I will put the absolute majority of PSOE+Podemos as very probable.. Odds around 4/6.

A pleasure


I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 07:00:26 PM EST
¡Hacer Espana Grande Otra Vez!

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 07:11:44 PM EST
Yeah they should invade the Americas again. That would certainly solve unemployment. And all that gold. That would stimulate the economy. Flow-on effects for all of Europe.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 07:22:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
¡Será enorme, muy muy grande!

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 07:26:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
¡El mejor -- que le puedo decir!

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 07:43:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sois los putos amos.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 10:03:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]


A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 07:15:17 PM EST
On these numbers, grand coalition.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 07:16:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
but how does that compare to the first 14% of the count last time around?
Are these the small, rural districts finishing their count first?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 07:24:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Pretty much. Madrid has only counted 6% while the national count is 33%.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 07:30:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]


A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 07:21:54 PM EST


A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 07:28:42 PM EST


A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 07:36:33 PM EST
WTF?

The election is today!

Brexit (and the the European Championship) drowned out everything.

Well at least the ET is here to keep me informed.

by rz on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 07:43:56 PM EST


A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 07:44:16 PM EST
Wht is Podemos so far behind?
by rz on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 07:45:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Nonlinear effects of Ciudadanos' collapse.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 07:53:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]


A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 07:54:14 PM EST
The Fernández Díaz case was bad for the PP despite trying to spin it as a violation of the minister's privacy.

Looking at the polls and the timeline of scandals, it seems to me that no scandal is bad for the PP as long as conservative voters fear a victory for the Left.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 07:56:46 PM EST
There are two reasons why right-wing Ciudadanos voters might have gone back to the PP: rejection of the agreement with the PSOE, and fear of Brexit. They would have hidden this from the exit polls out of embarrassment for PP corruption.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 08:06:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]


A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 08:04:31 PM EST
Possible results.. (results at 75%)
PP 130-140 (136)
PSOE 85-94 (89)
Podem+Con 68-77 (71)
Ciudadanos 26-35 (29)
Catalan Independentists 17
Basque nationalist 7-8 (7)
Canarian Islands 1

So.. it is clear repeat... so grand coalition or new elections..

Great for Spain if there is a third election. I hope that no government is formed...so that we can ot make a new budget.. Budget of the last year is passed automatically.. so a slightly expansionary fiscal policy without Berlin or Brussels being able to change it.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 08:12:08 PM EST


A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 08:43:16 PM EST
What about adding some or all of the left leaning Catalan parties to a national left coalition? Are they too toxic or do they refuse to join?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 09:56:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
PSOE refuses to accept even the abstention of the Catalan separatists.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 09:59:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Español tercera vía?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 11:32:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Please explain.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 11:43:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Spanish Third Way?

We all bleed the same color.
by budr on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 01:09:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A question and a joke.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 02:32:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]
PSOE wants Podemos and Ciudadanos...which is impossible according toPodemos and Ciudadanos

But PSOE claims no abstention with PP..and Ciudadnos claims no support with PP leader Rajoy

So third elections...isn't it?

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 10:11:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Rajoy could stay as caretaker indefinitely (for 4 years) until he wants new elections at which point he can ask the King for a mandate and if he fails to get support there would be elections in 4 months.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 11:42:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I wonder why the PPjust  don't gives Ciudadanos Rajoys head.
by IM on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 10:15:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]
After Rajoy got 14 more seats than in December, "even boiling water won't unstick him from the chair", as the Spanish idiom goes.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 4th, 2016 at 07:04:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Final

PP 137
PSOE 85
Podemos+left 71
Ciudadanos 37
Catalan Indep 17
Basque right 5
Basque left 2
Canarian right 1

So.. it is either Grand Coalition PP+PSOE or
NO PP gathering as PSOE+Podemo left with the abstention/support of Ciudadanos
or... third elections

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 09:52:55 PM EST
37?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 09:54:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry

PP 137
PSOE 85
Podemos Left 71
Ciudadanos 32
Catalan 17
Basque+Canarian 8

sorry!!!

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 10:05:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]


A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 09:57:20 PM EST
How are these seat numbers different from the previous election results? Any significant shifts?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 10:47:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
PP +14
PSOE -5
Ciudadanos -8
PNV -1

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Jun 26th, 2016 at 11:41:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks.  The slight shift towards the establishment in a crisis I was expecting, but not enough to change anything substantively???

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 12:03:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The polls failed to see that Podemos + IU < Podemos. And there must have been shy PP voters who hid the fact that they had not voted for Ciudadanos.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 12:23:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
People who dislike the PP but who voted for them anyway because they could see no alternative may not be too keen to advertise that fact.  Everywhere you look people seem to be looking for an alternative to established parties but not really being able to settle on what that alternative should be.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 12:59:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I repeat myself from the last election, but the system is somewhat unfair to Podemos and quite unfair to Ciudadanos.
by IM on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 10:17:20 AM EST
So Podemos has basically lost 3%?
by IM on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 10:29:07 AM EST
Pretty sad result.

Pablo Iglesias originally did not want to unite with the Hard Left, to attract more moderate voters. I think he was right.

by rz on Tue Jun 28th, 2016 at 12:57:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Most likely the old communists who i December supported "People's Unity" (around "United Left", a front for the Communist party) didn't turn out to vote in June.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 4th, 2016 at 07:03:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Since I'm in a paranoid mindset today: Ballots are still counted manually in Spain, yes?

I suspect that the Brits have killed Podemos' chances. The Brexit debate was dominated by the fascist right, the aftermath by the anguish of the international youth. That would saw uncertainty among Podemos supporters who at least aren't trapped in a country eternally ruled by Franco nostalgics if they don't risk conflict with the EU.

by generic on Mon Jun 27th, 2016 at 07:02:31 PM EST
Allegations of Vote Fraud Emerge in Spain | MishTalk -
Is this just another case of bad polls, or is something else happening?

Fraud allegations charges revolve around the company Indra awarded a contract to count the vote.


  1. Indra is fully wrapped in a web of corruption with the Popular Party.
  2. The election results do not correspond at all with any of all surveys: never in the history of democracy had given such differences.

Is this correct? A private company close to the government is tasked with counting the votes?

by generic on Thu Jun 30th, 2016 at 03:32:31 PM EST
I did a bit of searching:

The Company do electronic voting, but I don't find any mention of doing it in Spain.
INDRA ELECTRONIC VOTING SYSTEM SUCCESS - Telecompaper


INDRA ELECTRONIC VOTING SYSTEM SUCCESS
Tuesday 6 January 1998 | 00:00 CET | News
Indra (Spain), IT company which is due to be 66% privatised at start-1999, automated up to 99.4% of the voting that took place in the 06 December 1998 elections in Venezuela. Deploying the company's electronic voting system involved training 10k people to use 7k intelligent ballot boxes located at 5k voting stations. Indra's contract with the Venezuelan govt was worth USDlr148 mil. The company aims to boost its business in Latin America, where elections are expected in Argentina, Panama, and Colombia in 1999, and in Nicaragua in 2000. Indra has already provided electronic voting in Argentina
 

In fact, Spain appears to count ballots by hand, at least according to this list: Vote Counting Methods | Voter Turnout | International IDEA

On the other hand, the petition looks real enough:
AUTORIDADES ESPAÑOLAS Y EUROPEAS: Auditoría Elecciones Generales 26-J

Por qué es importante
  1. El Ministro del Interior, encargado del recuento/escrutinio de los votos, ha sido sorprendido flagrantemente utilizando las instituciones y a la Policía para destruir a rivales políticos.
  2. El Gobierno se saltó el concurso público y ejecutó la adjudicación del contrato para el recuento de los votos del 26-J por "procedimiento negociado" - cosa totalmente inusual en este tipo de contratos - adjudicándose a Indra, una empresa diferente que la que hizo el recuento el 20D, que ganó a través de concurso.
  3. Pero lo peor de todo, es que Indra está de lleno envuelta en una trama de corrupción (la Púnica) con el mismo partido que supervisa el recuento/escrutinio de las elecciones y que otorgó dicho contrato "a dedo", el Partido Popular.
  4. Los resultados de las elecciones no se corresponden en absoluto con ninguna de todas las encuestas: nunca en la historia de la democracia se habían dado semejantes diferencias.

Para más info entra aquí:
https:/www.facebook.com/Spainonymous?fref=ts

I'll leave it for the more knowledgeable to comment, and I hope they will.

by fjallstrom on Fri Jul 1st, 2016 at 01:10:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There have been no allegation of voting fraud, and there are political party representatives (also from Podemos) at most polling stations.

What likely happened is that the exit polls were done on the cheap, and polled the urban areas where Podemos is stronger.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 4th, 2016 at 06:59:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Indra is tasked with running the provisional vote aggregation. The actual vote count is controlled by the courts. Each ballot box is separately counted and a tally is signed by the poll workers and taken by the table president to the provincial election authority under police escort. Indra receives a copy of the results.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 4th, 2016 at 07:09:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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