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Corbyn becomes a British and European hero...

by Frank Schnittger Tue Jul 5th, 2016 at 05:24:48 PM EST

With Michael Gove increasingly being seen as the truly loathsome creature that he is, it looks as if Andrea Leadsom may become the main challenger to Teresa May from within the Brexit campaign. She has just secured the support of no less a luminary than Boris Johnson who is very popular with the Tory Party members who will make the final choice.  If she succeeds in winning the Tory leadership, I doubt that George Osborne - who reportedly blocked her promotion to Cabinet - will agree to join her Government in any position whatsoever.  Indeed, he may well go on to lead a rebellion against an Article 50 invocation in Westminster Parliament.  

Should the new Tory Prime Minster, be it May or Leadsom, fail to secure parliamentary backing for an Article 50 invocation they may have no option but to call a general election,  which will effectively become a second referendum on Brexit, and each party will then have to set out a clear policy on the EU.


Most Conservatives appear to be falling in line behind the Brexit position so the Tories will campaign on the basis of invoking article 50 and promising they will win lots of ponies in the exit negotiations by being tough with the EU. However some prominent Tories will campaign on a remain policy and may or may not be expelled as a result. Either way the Tories will be perceived as divided. UKIP can only benefit from this and will continue to sweep up the hard-line Brexit vote.

Labour will campaign on the basis of remaining in a reformed EU and setting out the reforms they will campaign for within the EU. As their victory is the only prospect that the 48% remain voters have of reversing the referendum result, they may very well win the election, and Corbyn or whoever succeeds him, will become Prime Minister possibly with the support of the Lib Dems and/or the SNP, both of which campaigned on the Remain side. The latter will support him on the basis of agreement to a second Scottish independence referendum when the outcome of EU negotiations are known.

Even the City will support Corbyn for PM when the alternative is leaving the EU and being led by Leadsom who was apparently considered to be the worst junior Treasury minister ever. However Corbyn will seek a completely different set of EU reforms than those sought by previous UK Governments. It will be about enhancing the structural, cohesion, regional, and social funds and policies of the EU, not about the neo-liberal market reforms previously championed by UK Governments. He may also seek increased transparency and accountability for the "Brussels bureaucracy" by increasing the powers of oversight of the European parliament, and insisting that the principle of subsidiarity be applied more rigorously in all EU related decision making.

In this way Corbyn will hope to woo the many disaffected Labour voters who have abandoned the party because of its support for neo-liberal "reforms" and neglect of its heartland industrial regions.

However he will also find a ready audience in Brussels and other EU capitals that matter - Berlin and Paris - who have tired of the UK's special pleadings on its own behalf and relieved to be finally dealing with someone willing to make a constructive contribution towards ameliorating the many structural deficits within the EU. Quite a substantial package of EU reforms will be agreed which will eventually succeed in bootstrapping the EU out of its austerity death spiral and perhaps in dampening demands for Scottish independence at least for a time.

Corbyn will become a British and European hero, saving both Unions at least for a time...

Display:
May leads first round of voting to succeed Cameron - RTÉ News

Theresa May has topped the first round of voting by Conservative MPs for the party's new leader, with Liam Fox eliminated after finishing last in the race to succeed Prime Minister David Cameron.

The vote among Conservative lawmakers saw interior minister May win 165 votes, with junior energy minister Andrea Leadsom second on 66.

Brexit campaigner Michael Gove was in third on 48.

Pensions minister Stephen Crabb won 34 votes, putting Mr Fox in last place on 16 and ending his leadership bid.

This came out after I wrote my piece - honest!

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Jul 5th, 2016 at 06:23:28 PM EST
The thing is that the tories have an absolute majority in the House of Commons. I genuinely doubt that there will be much of a Tory rebellion should the new Leader, let's call her Theresa for simplicity's sake, choose to invoke Article 50 simply because they know that a General Election forced by such a defeat would be the end of them.

So, we're out. I know that the SNP will be straining at the leash to break up the union, but I'm not sure that would be guaranteed right now. Scotland leaving the UK would be as economically senseless as UK leving EU.

If one is stupid, then so is the other.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Jul 5th, 2016 at 06:37:11 PM EST
Yes but George Osborne and quite a few pro-EU Tory MPs may not have all that much to lose.  What is their future in politics now anyway?  Big jobs in the City await.

As for Scotland leaving the UK, that may (at worst) be no more stupid than Brexit, being made mainly for reasons of identity rather than economics.  But then again the Irish economy is doing rather well at the moment and has recovered all the losses incurred in the last crisis.  So the Scots do have an economic model to follow.  EU membership would be critical for this.

Given how close the vote was the last time around, and given the promises made then that are not being delivered on now, I think the shock of Brexit would be more than enough to deliver a majority.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Jul 5th, 2016 at 06:54:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I agree totally if this sequence can be triggered. That is the key factor. The only hope is that the current government HAS to call for a new election. I agree that they will do anything they can to avoid it. A big push from several factors would help. I fear we ate at the mercy of events.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Jul 5th, 2016 at 07:23:01 PM EST
 = are at -

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Jul 5th, 2016 at 07:26:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The 3 factors which may prevent the above scenario unfolding are if:

  1. The Government trigger Article 50 without a vote in Parliament (against some legal advice)

  2. There isn't a sufficient revolt against triggering it from Tory MPs.

  3. Labour, SNP and Lib Dems fail to win a majority because a lot of voters desert Labour for UKIP.


Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Jul 5th, 2016 at 07:27:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
tbh if there's an election, the party that promises Article 50 will win. There's an electorate of 17 million out there who feel they have made their decision and will revolt against anyone who tries to deny them.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Jul 5th, 2016 at 07:42:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not so sure. Some of the 17 million are beginning to realise they were conned, and it's extremely unlikely that we'd have a Leave vote now after the last couple of weeks of chaos.

The Tories don't seem in a hurry to call an election, which suggests they don't feel confident about winning.

That says a lot by itself - especially after the Labour/media backstabbing, which would normally make a party unelectable.

They may be waiting until the leadership election is over, but so far the only person who has said an election is necessary is Cameron - and no one cares what he thinks any more.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Jul 6th, 2016 at 12:30:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There's also an electorate of around 16 Million who voted Remain and who are worried by the turn of events - which have fulfilled all the Remain camps warnings - and who have no where else to turn to other than Labour (and in a v. few Constituencies, the Lib Dems).  I know it's hard to imagine pro-EU Tories voting for Corbyn, but they have always managed to domesticate Labour in the past, and some things are simply more important than personalities.  I can even see Corbyn being "rehabilitated" by sections of the MSM once they realise he isn't going anywhere and in fact represents their only shot at a stable economic future.

Let's face it, the Leave side are pretty discredited. Boris is Gone, Farage is gone, Gove is being humiliated, and their remaining leader is a junior Minister with a terrible track record as a Minister and a very misleading CV for her previous work experience in the City which was nothing like as senior as she has led people to believe.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jul 6th, 2016 at 09:29:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Corbyn won't be rehabilitated.

The rich can always leave the UK - and probably will, taking their money with them.

The political dregs who stay will continue to enjoy the unqualified support of the UK's media, who will continue to push the underemployed neo-fascists towards their own demise.

At best we have a five to ten year depression ahead of us before a new generation of voters throws out the old order and finally forces the UK to start living in the 21st century.

Worse outcomes are not just possible, but likely.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Jul 8th, 2016 at 01:57:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We ate at the Mercy of Events and now visit the facility of inevitability

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Jul 5th, 2016 at 07:43:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Harald Macmillan is turning in his grave...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jul 6th, 2016 at 09:31:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
FIRST PUSH - The City:

Brexit Faces Legal Challenge As Solicitors Claim Parliament Has Veto  HuPo

The Tory Government has been warned that it faces a court battle if it goes ahead with Brexit talks without first giving Parliament a say. A group of unnamed businesses have instructed leading London law firm Mishcon de Reya to take pre-emptive legal action to ensure MPs and peers have a veto over the formal exit of the UK from the EU.

In what pro-EU campaigners hope is a last ditch move to delay or even stop Brexit, the solicitors have warned Government lawyers that they will take action if `Article 50' of the European Union Treaty is triggered by the Prime Minister without new Act of Parliament. The legal threat, which infuriated some Tory Eurosceptics, came as each of the contenders to replace David Cameron suggested different timetables for starting the formal process of leaving the EU.



"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Jul 6th, 2016 at 02:32:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
To be honest, I think you're nuts with this, Frank.  Corbin's got about as much chance of driving these sorts of reforms as I have.  Britain's not a euro member, and no one cares what the PM thinks about that.

Also think you're giving a lot more credit intellectually to the Labour heartland in the north than is deserved.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Jul 5th, 2016 at 09:30:25 PM EST
Someone could point out to those in the north and midlands who voted Leave that the chief thing that stops the current Conservative government from dumping all labour rights along with all social services is membership in the EU.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Jul 6th, 2016 at 01:04:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well I do like to make an arguement and see where it's internal logic will take me...

The "reforms" I'm suggesting Corbyn might propose are not Eurozone specific and no different from what many socialists have bee saying for a long time.  I don't think Merkel and Hollande will be as hostile to them as you suggest - they are well aware that current policies have failed to pull the EU out of "secular stagnation" and that crisis such as in Greece will reoccur, and in some important countries like Italy unless something is done.  The reforms are also a lot more palatable than debt forgiveness or outright fiscal transfers from a conservative point of view. Seeing progressive reforms proposed by the UK will be a refreshing change for all of them.

I don't think I am giving excessive intellectual credit to the northern labour heartlands.  Their vote for Leave was an entirely understandable response to being totally ignored by Blairite Labour for many years now.  They need concrete measures to revive their economies and will respond if they are offered.

I do fear, however, that I may be giving excessive intellectual credit to the Labour leadership with or without Corbyn.  Simply abandoning your beliefs because 52% of the electorate rejected them on one occasion is not what I would expect a Labour Leader to do, but then I have been disappointed in the past...

I think Corbyn is in a far more pivotal and powerful position than he realises.  I hope he cops on soon.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jul 6th, 2016 at 10:59:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I hope he cleans house in the NEC soon, for starters. Or does that have to wait for a party conference? And will there be one this summer?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Jul 6th, 2016 at 07:49:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They need concrete measures to revive their economies and will respond if they are offered.

But that's the point - they won't. This is exactly what EU money was doing in these areas, and they were more interested in being sullen and angry.

Neoliberalism (mostly) and the curious rise of faith schools (in part) has completely destroyed the humanity of these areas. The average educational level is so low these people not only lack basic abstract reasoning skills, they barely have the literacy and numeracy of functional adults.

They are literally incapable of understanding cause and effect. That's the truly shocking thing about the referendum - the fact that it showed just how educationally and intellectually deprived a huge section of the population has become.

And I don't mean that in a snobby I-have-a-degree way or in a way that blames the victims. I mean it in the sense that we no longer have any hint of the educated and engaged working class the Labour movement used to rely on.

This is entirely the fault of disastrous education policies and a poisonous media environment which has become a right-wing propaganda machine, edged with sex and titillation.

Issues have been reduced to talking points, talking points have been reduced to misdirections, misdirections have been turned into emotional hot buttons, and emotional hot buttons have been turned into votes.

Corbyn's tragedy is that he doesn't understand this. As usual on the educated left, he still believes that all voters need is a reasonable and fair case and they'll support his policies.

That doesn't work any more, except among a relatively small and shrinking educated demographic who already agree with him.

People vote based on identity, and after Thatcher and Blair Labour has very little identity to offer them.

If Labour is going to win it needs to recapture the alienated and easily fooled. And that's harder than it sounds, especially if it's going to be done ethically.

I'm not sure that the most practical thing to do isn't to write off the current adult older generation and start building up a new party movement among students and the young which is at least as social as it is political. Catch them before they're pickled in lies and there may be a chance.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Jul 8th, 2016 at 02:24:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
To a degree I empathise with this view, but it is also in danger of lapsing into a "people are idiots" cry of despair and cynicism and resulting in apathy and despondency.

Yes the media have poisoned the well, but people are not complete idiots.  The referendum vote was as much a (mis-directed) vote against the establishment (and immigrants) as anything else.  Amongst older voters it was also a cry to return to simpler times when England was for the ethnically English and everyone knew their place.

I know a lot of ageing English expats in Spain and many voted leave because they didn't want brown people taking over their homeland. (Colour being the unspoken difference between an expat and a migrant...). They were prepared to take (what they considered) a short term economic hit to further this objective.

What none of them seemed to appreciate is that much of Britain's economy is now based not only on the EU but on the migrant populations they despise.  As for the NHS, just wait if a large surge of ageing white English
expats choose or are forced to return...

So the EU became a proxy for a number of factors motivating people to vote.  Labour needs to address those factors, but it also need to have the courage that the EU can be part of the solution, rather than the core problem.  Maybe I am asking too much of Corbyn. We shall see.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jul 8th, 2016 at 01:55:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
People are idiots or racists. Happy now? Maybe they're racist idiots.

What proportion of the Leave vote was neither racist nor idiotic screaming against the establishment rather than a wish to leave the EU?

by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Fri Jul 8th, 2016 at 02:02:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I know a lot of ageing English expats in Spain and many voted leave because they didn't want brown people taking over their homeland.

Which is funny because Leave wanted to boost Commonwealth immigration at the expense of EU immigration.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Jul 8th, 2016 at 02:10:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think they probably meant antipodean...i.e. English speaking whites of (mostly) British origins...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Jul 8th, 2016 at 02:33:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by Bernard on Fri Jul 8th, 2016 at 05:26:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually, they specifically addressed immigrants from the Indian subcontinent.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Jul 8th, 2016 at 06:31:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Probably true, but too relentlessly gloomy. Even if true what choice do UK socialists and progressives have but to work to change this sad situation. A more forthcoming approach from Corbyn would help, but he is far better than the alternatives.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Jul 8th, 2016 at 03:05:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In my limited experience I see people belittling Jez because he's not enough of a rock star or something.
So conditioned to the shiny new clones coming down the political pike primed for mediation. They cannot conceive of a shiny new gig going to -in their eyes- a shabby old idealistic relic of the 60's, same as Sanders.
Wtf?
Ageism is all too real!

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Fri Jul 8th, 2016 at 08:13:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...they are well aware that current policies have failed to pull the EU out of "secular stagnation" and that crisis such as in Greece will reoccur, and in some important countries like Italy unless something is done.

On what grounds could you possibly think that of Merkel?  Every step of the way, Merkel has insisted on the same "remedies".  I don't know if it's that she's stupid or evil, but she's quite clearly aware of no such thing.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Jul 8th, 2016 at 09:15:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Merkel's open door policy which alloweda million refugees into Germany last year (and probably hastened her own political demise) is an example of where she can be considerably ahead of the political consensus and a allow a policy which, while politically dangerous, will have the effect of reflating the German economy and bolstering its aging workforce.  I don't think the progressive reforms I am arguing Corbyn should advocate would be anything like the political stretch for her as that refugee policy.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Jul 9th, 2016 at 10:09:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Merkel was also trying to address German businesses concerns about shortages of skilled labor - with threats of wage increases. Keynesian style "reflating", via the inflow of millions of new families, is still totally foreign to most German elite, especially at the CDU, and the economists advising them.

The wacky economics of Germany's parallel universe -- FT.com

German economists roughly fall into two groups: those that have not read Keynes, and those that have not understood Keynes. To describe the economic mainstream in Germany as conservative misses the point. There are some overlaps with the various neoclassical or neoconservative schools in the US and elsewhere. But as compelling as a comparison between the German mainstream and the Tea Party may appear, it does not survive scrutiny. German orthodoxy straddles the centre-left and the centre-right. The only party with some Keynesian leanings are the former communists.

A good example of orthodox dogma was last week's annual report of the Council of Economic Experts, an official body that advises the government. They did not criticise a lack of investment, excessive current account surpluses or overzealous fiscal rectitude. Instead they criticised the minimum wage and some minor relaxation to the retirement age. In other words: they want the government of Angela Merkel, chancellor, to be even tougher.

To be fair, Germany is not "imposing" this doctrine on their reluctant neighbors: said neighbors have totally bought into this "balanced budget" and "every country must be a net exporter" ideology. F.Hollande has even invoked French economist J.B.Say to justify his turn to supply-side economics and his government's quasi alignment on Berlin's economic doctrine.

by Bernard on Sat Jul 9th, 2016 at 06:59:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Too bad we can't send Hollande back 200 years to meet with Say and then just forget the return trip.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Jul 10th, 2016 at 12:54:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A bit unfair on Say who realised his mistake before he died.
Whereas Macron is praised, 200 years later, for putting at the centre of French politics the mistake Say, with far less evidence to work with, managed to correct.

As I have experienced many times, when you try to point out that it is a fallacy that offers creates its own demand, the answer is "of course it does, look at the iPhone"...

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Sun Jul 10th, 2016 at 07:43:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
LOL

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Jul 10th, 2016 at 11:52:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I wish it were a joke.

I got the statement several times from totally unrelated people. Sometimes with added comments such as "this is Schumpeterian"

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Mon Jul 11th, 2016 at 06:11:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sadly, it is not a joke to those who believe it. But it is paradigmatic of the whole of Mainstream Economics - not in that they all believe Say rules, hardly, but in that they believe what is safe and comfortable for themselves. This is restricted to that which is acceptable to their patrons, who are the wealthiest in the society. Fall out of grace in the mainstream and you find yourself in a much more hard-scrable world, professionally.

But I had thought that it was, at least partly, David Ricardo who interpreted Say's Law so as to survive the criticism that it didn't account for savings by showing that the savings, through the magic of banking, were reinvested as productive loans, often for capital projects. Or, crudely, S = I. The breakdown of the plausibility of that relationship is one of the current problems as savings became hoarded loot often diverted totally out of the domestic economy and/or into speculative mal-investment.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Jul 11th, 2016 at 01:17:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Does Corbyn advocate for 'clean coal'? Is his position on nuclear unequivocal?

(Trying to look for ways he may lose lefty votes down the road)

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Jul 5th, 2016 at 09:42:09 PM EST
None of this will happen. For one I don't see the current labour leadership being willing to overturn a referendum result. At least in the current climate. The they could live with EEA probably but just ignoing the result is not in the cards currently.
The City will never support a socialist. Their sense of entitlement won't permit it.
And finally if our leaders would listen to sense they'd have listened to Varoufakis. Instead we get CETA, TTIP and deficit sanctions.
by generic on Wed Jul 6th, 2016 at 08:16:48 AM EST
The European Commission just overruled the legal opinion it received and decided to let national parliaments debate CETA. This could turn into a sorry show, though, if the parliaments willing to debate it don't veto it.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Jul 6th, 2016 at 09:09:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What if the UK debates and vetoes it? Does that count?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed Jul 6th, 2016 at 09:18:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That possibly depends on where Frau Merkel comes down.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Jul 6th, 2016 at 01:11:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I have to agree with generic. I nice scenario. But the new prime minister will have no problem to find enough votes for article 50. Probably even Labour will respect the referendum. Probably they should not, but from what I can see they will.
by rz on Thu Jul 7th, 2016 at 10:52:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Judging by Corbyn's latest piece in the Guardian you may well be right.  I just think he is missing a historic opportunity to regain the leadership of a huge slice of the UK and put clear water between himself and the Tories. My piece was about advocacy of a position, as much as reportage, and it looks as if he is going to let his deep seated anti-European instincts guide his way.  The EU has many faults, but to me the notion the the UK will be a more progressive place once the brexiteers are in charge is laughable.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sat Jul 9th, 2016 at 10:18:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Jobs advertised online drop by half in the week following Brexit - a fall of over 700,000.

Is this a sign of things to come?

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jul 6th, 2016 at 03:52:43 PM EST
it's difficult to know. I think that it would only be sensible for companies to hold fire on non-essential recruitment for a few months while they assess impacts.

A sensible set of micro-economic decisions that will have grave macro consequences

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Jul 6th, 2016 at 05:33:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Without knowing normal variations and seasonal patterns I would not draw conclusions from so little data.
by fjallstrom on Wed Jul 6th, 2016 at 06:52:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Apparently a 50% drop in one month is unprecedented...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jul 6th, 2016 at 06:57:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Still wouldn't be worried about such short term stuff. No one hires people out of loneliness.
I do however expect the property bubble to go and the reaction to be entirely inadequate.
by generic on Wed Jul 6th, 2016 at 07:18:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
So no foreigners coming to take all those jobs, then?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed Jul 6th, 2016 at 07:03:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is an interesting data point. But right now it is very very difficult to distinguish momentary panic from long term consequences.
by rz on Thu Jul 7th, 2016 at 10:54:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
LENIN'S TOMB: Brexit: the Monkey's Paw edition

But what strikes me about all this is that there seems to be a very clear guilt reflex on the Right. The Boris Johnson panic and meltdown, George Osborne relinquishing his emergency austerian budget and giving up on the 'fiscal rule', the confessions from leading Brexiters that they had no plan for the outcome, the sudden rush to prevent a lapse into barbarism on the question of migration and in the treatment of existing EU nationals, all has the feel of a kind of dismal morning-after mopping up operation. As if, at each stew of vomit, at each alcoholic stain or piece of tumbled furniture, a fresh memory returns with sudden painful clarity, and they're thinking, "oh god... I didn't... I didn't...". Well, yes you did.

And look at what might now happen. Austerity could be a busted flush, as Osborne gives up on eradicating the deficit (which, of course, was never really a plausible outcome or even the objective), May pragmatically concedes the point, and Crabb promises massive deficit-financing of public investment. Scotland is likely to secede from the Union, and re-join the EU, thus finally drawing Britain to an appropriate anticlimax. Free movement of labour, with some reforms or restrictions, might actually be consecrated, as part of a consensus ranging from John McDonnell to Daniel Hannan, designed to avoid total clusterfucking disaster. And with property markets nosediving, house prices no longer able to subsidise incomes for the vaguely affluent and housed, there will likely be far more pressure to actually address the housing crisis and stop the whole system from being run on the basis of enforced scarcity. What then will become of the property-owning democracy underpinning the Conservative vote? What will become of England?

I find this vaguely plausible. I see no prospect of staying in but it is not clear what out means concretely. And some of the consequences might destroy the Tory base.
The downside is that while we could finally get a solidly socialist government that can't be easily black mailed it would also be locked out of affecting EU policy development.

by generic on Wed Jul 6th, 2016 at 11:49:42 PM EST
I think it's unwise to underestimate just how suicidal the right is.

The right is driven entirely by comparative status and expression of personal potency - not by any understanding of realistic strategies for the future, realistic threats that are deemed to challenging to acknowledge, or realistic dangers.

The standard right-wing response to any suggestion of loss of potency is to attack and belittle the messenger - not to think if perhaps there really is a problem, and then work towards fixing it.

Pragmatism isn't an option. The challenge for the Tories isn't what happens five years from now, but what happens over the next few weeks. And they're far more likely to double down on idiocy than make realistic plans for the future.

Consider Osborne's pledge to cut corporation tax. In a very practical sense that's the last thing the UK needs now. It's not going to attract new investment here, it's not going to create new opportunities, and it's certainly not going to make it easier to fund pensions and the NHS.

So why do it? Because - as usual - it's a handout for Osborne's mates.

That's the level of strategic thinking the British right runs on, and I see no evidence they'll ever be capable of transcending that.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Thu Jul 7th, 2016 at 01:06:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

One of the worst developments is that our elites don't feel like they even have to pretend to like democracy any more.

by generic on Thu Jul 7th, 2016 at 06:07:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Some Pundits Think the Solution to Right-Wing Populism Is Less Democracy | FAIR
The core orthodoxies of neoliberalism are under attack by populist forces, and commentators are scrambling for a response. Some are suggesting more left-wing red meat. Others, a moment of self-reflection. But a number of pundits are doing that most noxious of political commentary pastimes--equating right and left responses to the failures of globalization and advocating that "elites" should fight back against the forces of inconvenient democracy.
by generic on Fri Jul 8th, 2016 at 10:24:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"elites" should fight back against the forces of inconvenient democracy.

What does he think that elites since 1990 have done? Brexit was a self-inflicted wound by elites.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Jul 9th, 2016 at 06:05:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
self-inflicted wound by elites
Or a gentlemanly surprise from The Elites to their closest competition.
by das monde on Sun Jul 10th, 2016 at 03:09:39 AM EST
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Better hope that there is a new election before Scotland exits. It will be much harder to get a Socialist government without the SNP. And, if the Conservatives collapse in disgrace and disarray, where will the voters who supported them go - UKIP?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Jul 7th, 2016 at 02:18:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Theresa May or Andrea Leadsom to be next UK prime minister

Britain's next prime minister is set to be a woman, after Theresa May and Andrea Leadsom took the top two slots in a crucial vote of Conservative MPs on who will be the party's next leader.

Justice secretary Michael Gove was eliminated from the contest to succeed David Cameron as Tory leader, in the second-round ballot at Westminster.

Although May won the ballot of MPs by a resounding 199 to 84 votes, the final choice will be made by the parties 150,000 members, most of whom are much more hard line and pro-Brexit than the parliamentary party.  As Leadsom is the last remaining Leave campaigner still standing, she could still be the ultimate winner, even though her City CV is being questioned and her parliamentary experience limited to a junior ministerial portfolio.

Both candidates are extremely conservative - May wants to repeal the Charter for Human Rights, Leadsom is against gay marriage etc. - and it is hard to see either of them building a positive relationship with other European leaders... well, perhaps Marine Le Pen and a few east Europeans.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jul 7th, 2016 at 03:52:06 PM EST
"Both candidates are extremely conservative"

I think the word is reactionary.
They are not just seeking to conserve at all cost with no option for progressivism - that would be too good. They want to dismantle long-accepted elements of social construct.


Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Thu Jul 7th, 2016 at 04:56:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The polite word is "reactionary". There are lots of alternatives.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Jul 7th, 2016 at 05:13:24 PM EST
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Might either of them appoint Stephen Crabbe to head DHS? The only positive is that either, but especially Leadsome might prove disastrous atop the ticket for a new election.

How would either fare as PM? Could either hold the Tories together in Parliament? How vulnerable would either be to factional plots to topple them?


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Jul 7th, 2016 at 05:34:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Unknown territory. They're both incompetent fools.

Leadsom is a self-aggrandising liar in the Palin mode. She was hated by her staff in her brief time as a minister - which might make life very interesting if she became PM, because it's likely the plotting to get rid of her would start immediately and might have the enthusiastic support of the civil service.

May is a right-wing loon - emotionally tone deaf, but more experienced and respected by Whitehall. She's merely toxic rather than spectacularly clueless. She'd do an assortment of extremely unpopular things, and I don't think she has the sophistication or the instincts to get away with blaming other people for the effects.

I can't see Leadsom surviving a full term. It would make sense to promote her to start the Art 50 nonsense and then get rid of her so she carries the blame for the consequences.

May might survive, but the Tories will be radioactive by the end of a full term, and will be torn apart by Europe.

Both make Cameron + Osborne look like professionals - which is hardly a compliment.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Fri Jul 8th, 2016 at 02:36:16 AM EST
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My Tory wreckers vote would be for Leadsome.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Jul 8th, 2016 at 03:58:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From what I've seen of them so far, either one would make Cameron look like Attlee.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Fri Jul 8th, 2016 at 09:26:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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