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Two Weeks Post Brexit - Is Anything Clear Yet?

by ARGeezer Tue Jul 12th, 2016 at 12:29:48 PM EST

Questions and Answers:

1. It seems clear that it is in the interests of the current government to hold onto power as long as possible. But how long is that likely to be?

2. It seems clear that the City is opposed to leaving the EU. A. But will they settle for a massive 'shock doctrine' roll back of social and labor protections? B. Will they be divided in their response, and, if so, what will be the majority response? C. And how effective will their response be?

3. It seems likely that Corbyn can hold on to the leadership of Labour. But will Labour be able to bring forth a program that is able to attract or bring back enough supporters to win by-elections and a new General Election.

4. How will legal challenges and issues impact the course of events?

Frontpaged - Frank Schnittger


Brexit May Need Second EU Referendum And Parliamentary Approval  HuPo

`Brexit' may need a second referendum and Parliamentary approval in order to go ahead, the former Clerk of the House of Commons has said. Lord Lisvane, one of the most authoritative constitutional experts in the country, said that it would be rational for MPs and peers to be consulted once an exit deal was hammered out between the Government and the EU.

The peer, who spent 40 years working in the Commons, also said that a second referendum may be required in order to give political effect to whatever London had agreed with Brussels. And he suggested that so-called Article 50 `notification' - the formal process of pulling out of the European Union - could be rescinded or withdrawn at a future date if the country decided to change its mind.

Lord Lisvane said that if the Brexit package proved to be inadequate or unacceptable, the decision could even be decided ultimately by the European Court of Justice.

Display:
For example the low youth turn out:
EU referendum: youth turnout almost twice as high as first thought | Politics | The Guardian
The turnout among young people aged 18 to 24 in the EU referendum was almost double the level that has been widely reported since polling day, according to evidence compiled at the London School of Economics.
...
The results found that 64% of those young people who were registered did vote, rising to 65% among 25-to-39-year-olds and 66% among those aged between 40 and 54. It increased to 74% among the 55-to-64 age group and 90% for those aged 65 and over. It is thought that more than 70% of young voters chose to remain in the EU.
by generic on Sun Jul 10th, 2016 at 09:49:52 AM EST
I wonder how many young people are registered voters, though.
by Katrin on Sun Jul 10th, 2016 at 01:22:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A lot of PLPs floating the idea that Corbyn would need PLP nominations to run...

by generic on Sun Jul 10th, 2016 at 11:58:00 AM EST
they're attempting to say that Corbyn needs to get nominations as well, while most presume that he isn't a "challenger" at all.

they're in a bind. They badly needed Corbyn to resign in the face of the PLP's refusal to work with him. He didn't and now they're between a rock and a hard place.

If Corbyn is on the ballot paper, then he will win and the PLP are not just back where they were, but pistol whipped to boot with a whole load of constituencies likely to seek de-selection of quisling mps.

If Corbyn isn't on the ballot paper, then I imagine that the party will fall into warfare at the next Conference with constituency meetings likely to make demands for immediate de-selection.

It all adds up to a funky situation.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jul 10th, 2016 at 03:40:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What is the immediate, practical, effect of deselection?  AFAICT, it's a pointless gesture.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Jul 10th, 2016 at 04:28:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Deselection: What is it and how could Labour supporters oust an MP? | UK Politics | News | The Independent
What does deselection mean?

For every General Election, an MP has to reapply to their local party for selection as a candidate.

Normally - if the MP is popular with local activists - this is largely a symbolic process, but the party can vote to refuse to reselect them as a candidate if they do not stand down at the following election.


And in Europe it is not a Congresscritter running with a letter attached but a party with some privileged twit attached. So deselection means death.

It's four and half years till the next election. Can't I get rid of them sooner?

No.

by generic on Sun Jul 10th, 2016 at 04:55:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Corbyn is on the ballot. So that's that battle won.

But the war is impossible for anyone to win. The only happy outcome is for the PLP to admit they're on the wrong side of history, and commit to fully supporting their members and their leader.

I can't see all of them doing that. A majority might, which is probably the best outcome.

I also can't see any likelihood of Corbyn resigning until someone with similar policies from a similar background is ready to take over.

The PLP won't like them either.

No one has any good choices here. The PLP can split, and they probably will. But if they do, they know they've got four years at most. There is no conceivable way they'll keep their jobs for another term.

Corbyn can carry on with a rump. But he has much less political leverage without the splitters than he does with them. So even if the Tories decide to vote against May - unlikely, but possible - he can't win a vote of no confidence unless the former PLP support him.

May has it sewn up. She doesn't need an election. And unless she makes some very bad mistakes, we're stuck with her until 2020.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Tue Jul 12th, 2016 at 08:31:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I thought that, with constituency boundary changes in 2018, that there was going to be an almighty re-selection battle. Normally, most incumbent MPs would probably have got through on the nod. Now, they may not make it onto the ballot paper in 2020

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Tue Jul 12th, 2016 at 09:07:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The party elite managed to insert one possible impediment to a Corbyn re-election: members who joined since February have to pay Ł25 to vote. This will favour the more affluent anti-Corbyn recruits, I guess.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Jul 13th, 2016 at 05:01:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I guess that will set me back £25 then!

This is a shockingly cynical ploy - very clearly aiming at the one segmentation that goes against him, and when you call yourself labour, introducing a kind of poll tax is something extraordinary indeed.

But if I am too annoyed I can simply revert to the lowest monthly contribution and make it up that way.


Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Wed Jul 13th, 2016 at 06:14:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by generic on Wed Jul 13th, 2016 at 08:13:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well we can't have constituency parties voting no confidence in their MPs now can we?  Still, given that a no-confidence vote has no legal effect - in terms of ultimately se-selecting an MP - there is nothing to stop local constituency parties meeting any way and voting no confidence.  The PR effect will be the same, and MPs will be put on notice of impending de-selection.  And that ultimate deselection will be by all members - including all the new ones - so the outlook looks very gloomy for most of the PLP in any case.  Expect some of them to come back on board for reasons of self preservation if nothing else.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jul 13th, 2016 at 10:23:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by generic on Wed Jul 13th, 2016 at 10:54:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well we can't have constituency parties voting no confidence in their MPs now can we?  Still, given that a no-confidence vote has no legal effect - in terms of ultimately se-selecting an MP - there is nothing to stop local constituency parties meeting any way and voting no confidence.  The PR effect will be the same, and MPs will be put on notice of impending de-selection.  And that ultimate deselection will be by all members - including all the new ones - so the outlook looks very gloomy for most of the PLP in any case.  Expect some of them to come back on board for reasons of self preservation if nothing else.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jul 13th, 2016 at 10:25:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I read in a comments section somewhere (Labourlist?) that one of the trade unions allows registering for Ł2, which is then a backdoor to voting in the Labour election as affiliate member. But people should check out their possibilities fast as the deadlines are rather short (another vile trick).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Jul 13th, 2016 at 10:14:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I read somewhere that the deadline doesn't apply to trade unions....
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed Jul 13th, 2016 at 10:16:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, I saw that - but being a trade union member can be an issue in some professions where it would look like impeding neutrality.

So it's good that it's available, but still an absolutely shocking underhand ploy. Not on the agenda and once Corbyn was out of the room no less...


Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Wed Jul 13th, 2016 at 10:54:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually, I find there are more affiliate options:

How can I vote in the Labour leadership election? | Politics | The Guardian

Is there a cheaper way to vote than paying £25?

Possibly. The Huntingdon Labour party has suggested that if you become a member of BAME Labour, LGBT Labour, Scientists for Labour or one of various other groups, you can become a registered supporter that way. These options are much cheaper. There is still a page on the Labour party website which implies this is a way to become a registered supporter.

But:

We have contacted the Labour party for clarification about these potential loopholes.

Calling it "loopholes", it sounds like The Guardian reported them in the hope of closing them...

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Wed Jul 13th, 2016 at 12:53:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now that Owen Smith has officially thrown his hat into the race, things get interesting.

One thing to watch: will he and Eagle both stay in the race (guaranteeing Corbyn's win even with the disenfranchisement) or will one of them drop out?

Another thing to watch: how will the anti-Corbyn candidates attempt to woo left-wing members? If Corbyn achieved one thing it is to make Smith pitch himself as a decidedly left-wing alternative:

Owen Smith: ambitious politician pitched as Labour's soft-left option | Politics | The Guardian

...He may have less support than Angela Eagle at the moment, but the former shadow work and pensions secretary plans to pitch himself as the soft-left option, arguing that he has many of the anti-austerity policies of Corbyn but stronger leadership skills.

In contrast to Eagle he did not vote for the Iraq war or the airstrikes on Syria. And although he supports Trident, he is quick to point out that he is a former member of the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament and is passionate about multilateral disarmament.

...Smith's backers say his strategy will have to be to focus on policies and a firmly leftwing vision to attract the membership if he wants to have any chance against the incumbent leader.

He has also explicitly welcomed that Corbyn remained on the ballot and claimed that the he had no part in the coup which was the work of the "right".

Though the problem with his credibility would be:

However, it is his subsequent jobs as a lobbyist for the pharmaceuticals company Pfizer and as special adviser to Paul Murphy, the former Northern Ireland secretary, who did vote for the Iraq war, that may prove problematic.



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Wed Jul 13th, 2016 at 12:45:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
More than that, his "left wing" credentials are also seriously damaged by his having called for the NHS to be privatised. That doesn't just disqualify him from being remotely "left", it ought to disqualify him from the Labour party

another unprincipled spad parachuted into an unwilling contituency at the bidding of Blair.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Wed Jul 13th, 2016 at 02:16:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
saw this on FB, it's quite a good analysis

Harry Giles

Dear anti-Corbyn Labour supporters,

I get it. I really do. He has not led Labour to brilliant election results. He has not inspired confidence in enough of his MPs. His personal polling is not good. Some of his supporters are utter dicks. Momentum is way more centralist than I'd like (though I think "Trotskyist" is a bit of a push). He's older and he's tired. He doesn't always speak brilliantly. We really really want to get rid of the Tories. I completely understand why you might not support Corbyn.

The problem is, you have given us nothing else to support. I am a politics geek, and I have been completely obsessed by the newsfeeds for the last fortnight, and I have not seen one single new policy idea come from the anti-Corbyn MPs. Maybe you have them, but if so they haven't made it out beyond your thinktanks and fancy ill-attended seminars. I have not seen one single new compelling narrative, one single new ideological possibility. Maybe you have them, but you've been even worse at getting them in the papers than Corbyn. Lines about Corbyn's electability mean nothing unless you can offer another idea to elect.

Because we are desperate. Speaking personally, I have had every economic advantage afforded to the middle class, and I still have never had a full-time job, a living wage income, or income security for more than a few months ahead. I managed to get out of debt but I've been stuck in the private rental sector and getting out seems to be getting harder and harder. I'm 29. My mental health and sexuality haven't helped with all this, especially not with austerity screwing things up on those fronts as well. But I am pretty privileged, all things told, and I'm physically desperate for political change, so I cannot fully imagine how desperate things must be for folk who started out with fewer advantages than me.
......



keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jul 10th, 2016 at 03:46:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As for the claim that Corbyn's campaigning was lacklustre. From a comment at The Guardian (I saw this claim made at several places already but haven't seen the original source yet):

Labour leadership: readers put case for and against Corbyn | Membership | The Guardian

Eagle and Harman blame Jeremy Corbyn for not getting the vote out for Remain (that in itself is highly debateable), but the figures don't seem to add up .....

Remain Meetings addressed by ....

Jeremy Corbyn 123
Alan Johnson 19 (Leader of the Labour In Campaign)
Harriet Harman 17
Angela Eagle 15



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Jul 11th, 2016 at 02:52:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Actually, the commenter was totally off. The numbers are mentions in the media.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Jul 11th, 2016 at 03:02:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And now at last The Guardian allows some coup-critical writers to come forward.

`Is Angela Eagle really better than Jeremy Corbyn?' - Guardian writers on Labour's leadership | Gary Younge, John Harris, Anne Perkins and Maya Goodfellow | Opinion | The Guardian

Gary Younge: There was not one idea about what she would do.

...Angela Eagle barely seems to have a plan A. She wants to get rid of Jeremy Corbyn. Well, reasonable people can disagree on whether that makes sense. But that in itself is not much of an agenda and raises the obvious question, "What do you want to replace him with"? Corbyn was not elected for his personality but for his politics. His victory was emphatic. His election was part of a global moment that has seen a left resurgent across Europe as well as in the US. So whoever seeks to replace him needs to engage with that.

Apparently that's not going to happen. Significantly missing from Eagle's announcement was a single idea about what she would actually do. "I'm not a Blairite. I'm not a Brownite. I'm not a Corbynista. I am my own woman," she said. Quite what that means for the rest of us is difficult to tell. She supported the Iraq war, voted against every effort to investigate it; she voted for the bombing of Syria, she voted for the introduction of tuition fees and for raising them to £3,000, and abstained on welfare cuts. That sounds pretty Blairite to me. [...]


Anne Perkins: Labour would crumble if Corbyn is not on the ballot

Show, not tell, they say, and everything about the standing of Labour was shown when the live TV coverage switched away in unison from Angela Eagle's challenge to Jeremy Corbyn - only to while away the time before Andrea Leadsom emerged to crown Theresa May prime minister in discussion over when the removal van should be booked for No 10. The Tories have always done political assassination much more efficiently than Labour. [...]


Maya Goodfellow: Labour has deep-rooted problems, Eagle is not the solution

If this is all about "real" leadership, it's not entirely clear how Angela Eagle is a viable replacement for Jeremy Corbyn. The charges levelled against him, notably that the public aren't clear about Labour's messages, don't necessarily disappear under Eagle. Her speech was reminiscent of something from Ed Miliband, diagnosing problems without providing clear answers. A soft-left Milibandesque candidate who voted for the Iraq war is not the answer to the party's problems - and I say this as someone who voted for her to be deputy leader last year.

...The truth is the huge hurdles facing the party have been many years in the making, and their architects are a significant number of the MPs behind the anti-Corbyn campaign. People left behind by an unfair economic system and abandoned by an inward-looking political class want to have some ownership over their lives and over politics.

Eagle is yet to properly lay out her ideas, but a technocratic response to this is not enough. Labour needs to become a democratic movement. Making this change is a fractious process but Eagle's attempt to derail it with the backing of the vast majority of the parliamentary Labour Party suggests that, however much they attack Corbyn for being out of touch, the PLP don't understand the problems that face them.



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Jul 11th, 2016 at 03:17:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Pot, meet kettle.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Jul 11th, 2016 at 06:51:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
A very good article about how Remain lost
Union Jacks Flutter Over a Widening Gyre | Salvage

How did it happen? The Remain campaign had the broadest possible coalition, the most money, and ample media backing. It had the CBI, the TUC, the City, the leaderships of all the major parties and most of the minor ones, the Mirror, the Times, the Guardian, the FT, the Independent, the Observer, even the Mail on Sunday. All the big class battalions were for Remain. Most of the big intellectual artillery was lined up behind Remain. World leaders intervened on its behalf. Ukip, the Tory Right, small-to-medium sized capital, and the ranks of Poujadist patriots out to restore Britishness, surely had little chance.

One reason for the success of the populist Right is that this debate was one structured as an argument within the Right, from the beginning.

Particularly like the last paragraph.

Yet you only have to watch the reactions of many Brexit supporters to know that this isn't going to change their minds. Their joy and relief, their sense of accomplishment, of having finally made themselves heard, of having `taken their country back,' is overwhelming. They won something; they finally won something. And nor is it just pensioners in blighted cities. The people shouting `out, out, out' at Muslim school students in Brockley, the woman in Enfield telling non-white people to `get out,' the neo-Nazis parading in Newcastle: the racists feel a new confidence, a new entitlement. It is `their country' at last. Even if it is only a `psychological wage,' they will fight to defend their gains. And as long as the debate is organised on the basis of US-style culture wars, with an arrogant metropolitan oligarchy pitched against a racist-chauvinist backlash, the ranks of the latter will grow.

The culture wars now afoot were signalled by Nigel Farage, who greeted the victory with what looks like a calculated, gloating reference to the fascist murder of Jo Cox MP: "we've done it without a single bullet being fired."

Though excerpts don't do it justice.

The Remain side certainly was ugly. You got economic humbug all day every day. You got the European governments that burned down Greece to make a point. You've got Osborne who nearly did the same to the UK for whatever reason and without the slightest need. You got the Davos set always pushing their despotic "trade treaties". You've got people arguing, as the article points out, that Brexit would "make it harder to deport rapists."
Yet they lost and Leave won. Remain could still have been anything, no matter ugly many of its components were. Leave however is now real and the possibilities are collapsed. Lexit is gone. Democratic self determination is gone. The reactionaries and fascists own the moment.

So I expect that our leaders favourite move of wrapping themselves in the "European idea" to cover all the ugliness will work better for a time. Support for the EU is up. The left opposition in Spain did worse than expected. Here in Austria the Freedom Party changed its mind about an Exit referendum.
Yet inevitably it won't last. One of the pro EU liberals in Austria wrote that now would have been the time to pass CETA without parliaments to show the EU can still do it. Because clearly class war "trade agreements" are what people are hoping for.

by generic on Sun Jul 10th, 2016 at 01:09:41 PM EST
Brexit May Need Second EU Referendum And Parliamentary Approval - Ex Clerk Of The Commons
`Brexit' may need a second referendum and Parliamentary approval in order to go ahead, the former Clerk of the House of Commons has said.

Reversing Brexit with an act of Parliament?

How will this go down with the people who voted for Leave? As you quoted:

Union Jacks Flutter Over a Widening Gyre | Salvage

Yet you only have to watch the reactions of many Brexit supporters to know that this isn't going to change their minds. Their joy and relief, their sense of accomplishment, of having finally made themselves heard, of having `taken their country back,' is overwhelming. They won something; they finally won something. And nor is it just pensioners in blighted cities. The people shouting `out, out, out' at Muslim school students in Brockley, the woman in Enfield telling non-white people to `get out,' the neo-Nazis parading in Newcastle: the racists feel a new confidence, a new entitlement. It is `their country' at last. Even if it is only a `psychological wage,' they will fight to defend their gains.

Yes, they will fight.

by Bernard on Sun Jul 10th, 2016 at 03:19:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe. The news that the BoE is probably cutting rates soon suggests that Carney and Co are possibly gambling on a cooling off period for the rest of the year, and then some constitutional shenanigans to put off Brexit permanently.

Cutting rates on a weakened pound makes no sense otherwise - unless you want inflation to more than double next year, forcing up rates regardless.

The mood may have changed by then, even among many of the Leavers, and the political challenge will be to find some way of persuading them that they're not a majority any more, and don't truly have a mandate.

Or perhaps I'm being optimistic, and the plan now is to press hard on the accelerator and drive the UK straight into that brick wall in front of it.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Sun Jul 10th, 2016 at 03:28:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I can see some sense in the BoE loosening lending requirements and reducing rates preemptively in the face of a looming recession. Exchange rates are not everything. But a move to import substitution via renewed domestic manufacturing would be very helpful, no matter how unlikely. And the agricultural sector could surely increase output with appropriate incentives. The economic situation with Brexit would be more than a little similar to what Britain faced in WW II, so pushing a national program for self sufficiency should have traction - if any would make the effort. That would also increase domestic employment.

Subsequent polling combined with persuasion by younger members of families of older members will also start to build momentum for taking a second look at the decision, as should the stunning rapidity and candor with which leaders of the Leave campaign repudiated key claims they made in support of Leave. There is still time for opinion to shift. If/when it does, opportunity will likely be there. Certainly MPs would feel better about voting not to invoke Article 50 if polling showed that a majority of their constituents now favored remain. Others will be persuaded also by blandishments from The City.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Jul 10th, 2016 at 04:25:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Personally I think that brexit is a done deal. Even if Theresa May becomes PM, she has already stated that she feels compelled to invoke article 50.

Whether it could pass a free vote in the House of Commons is something else, but I don't think there will be too many MPs willng to risk their parliamentary futures trying to resist.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jul 10th, 2016 at 05:37:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If the Commons vote, does that mean that the Lords get a chance as well?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sun Jul 10th, 2016 at 06:03:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, they will have their say, but as the offer of a referendum (and presumably being bound to the result) was in the manifesto, then traditionally the Lords nod such commitments through

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jul 10th, 2016 at 06:49:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Why "presumably bound to the result"?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Jul 11th, 2016 at 03:05:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But, if the polls shift to opposing Brexit in their districts would not that tend to cause some MPs to reconsider?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Jul 10th, 2016 at 07:29:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
afaik nobody is seriously attempting to measure that right now. Lots of anecdotal claims but none of it is data.

I was reading on dKos (here - seriously good round up of the issues) that 421 constituencies out of 650 voted for leave. That's a result you don't wish away with indifference, you'd better have something really good to justify your action to the electorate.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jul 10th, 2016 at 08:00:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I take it that not all constituencies are of the same population.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Jul 10th, 2016 at 11:50:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
(As the vote was much closer.)


"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Jul 10th, 2016 at 11:51:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Is This A Sign?

David Cameron Booed After Andy Murray Thanks Crowd In Wimbledon Victory Speech   HuPo

 
David Cameron was greeted with a chorus of boos after Andy Murray singalled him out when thanking the audience after claiming a straight sets victory at Wimbledon on Sunday.
....
"I think playing a Wimbledon final is tough but I certainly wouldn't like to be the prime minister." He added it was "impossible job" as Cameron watched on, next to his mother Mary.
 

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Jul 10th, 2016 at 07:53:34 PM EST
Any Murray is Scottish who wants an independent Scotland. So, of course Murray would thank Cameron for making that much more likely.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jul 10th, 2016 at 08:05:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I know, it's from the Telegraph.

Talks about forming new 'pro EU centrist party' reported at Westminster

Informal discussions have been held between Labour and Tory MPs over the prospects of forming a new centrist party, it was reported last night.

Labour MPs opposed to Jeremy Corbyn could join forces with Tories at Westminster who would desert the party if Andrea Leadsom won the leadership.

"A number of my colleagues would not feel comfortable in a party led by Andrea Leadsom," an anonymous Tory minster told The Observer.

Links between pro-Europeans in both parties were forged during the EU referendum campaign.

That such talk has even reared its head is an indication of the massive instability among the Labour and Tory parties...

by Bjinse on Sun Jul 10th, 2016 at 07:59:41 PM EST
On the tory side it appears this is only in case Andrea Leadsom wins, which is almost certainly not going to happen.

However, it just goes to show that, as we have long claimed, the right wing of the Labour party in Westminster (a majority it seems) seem to have far more in common with the Tory party than they ever did with the general membership of the Labour party.

They always get irate when this is claimed, yet here we are

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jul 10th, 2016 at 08:04:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
From this side of the Atlantic, it looks like Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage no longer have viable political careers.  But I could be wrong.

Solar IS Civil Defense
by gmoke on Sun Jul 10th, 2016 at 11:42:47 PM EST
Farage has won his great battle, a black and white issue that requires no nuance or shade of grey. Easy peasy. Anything else would be difficult, dilute the brand AND require actual work. He's not interested, so he's off.

Johnson probably doesn't realise it fully, but his time is done. His career has been built entirely on self-aggrandizing chuzpah, brushing off minor setbacks and leaping forward. Well, he got himself to the point where he could take the job everyone knew he wanted, that of Prime Minister. It was in his grasp. But, at that moment, he hesitated then turned away. And, in that moment, dissipated everything he was understood to be by the public.

He is viewed differently now, as a wrecker, a coward, a waster. If he doesn't know it now, he will realise it in time.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jul 11th, 2016 at 07:55:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
First legal attempt to prevent Brexit set for preliminary hearing Guardian

The first legal attempt to prevent the prime minister initiating Britain's withdrawal from the European Union is to be heard later this month.

A high court judge, Mr Justice Cranston, has set 19 July for a preliminary hearing of the judicial review challenge brought on behalf of the British citizen Deir Dos Santos.

The claim argues that only parliament - not the prime minister - can authorise the signing of article 50 of the Lisbon treaty, which begins the UK's formal withdrawal process.

 

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Jul 11th, 2016 at 04:24:57 AM EST
The most extraordinary clarification we have had since the vote is that the entire Leave Campaign were a bunch of Opportunistic chancers who are happy to leave the mess they have created for others to deal with.  Farage, Johnson, Gove and now Leadsom have all run away when faced with the actual prospect of taking responsibility for the future governance of the UK, all the while claiming that Brexit creates such a wonderful opportunity for Britain to blossom outside of the EU. So why are they all running away when everything in the future gardenis so rosy?

If there were a rerun of the referendum, who would now lead the Leave campaign? Who has the credibility to claim they can actually relise this wonderful vision of a Britain prospering without immigration or foreign control?

But I agree with those who say there will not be a secodn referendum.  That would be to admit the UK is totally broken.  Best to carry on regardless even if you know the policy is all wrong -just like the Battle of the Somme was necessary...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jul 11th, 2016 at 02:13:53 PM EST
Might we suggest that the New Labour PLP members be tapped for the next to go 'up and over' in whatever 21st Century equivalent of the Somme is on offer? They are such enthusiastic hawks, after all.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Jul 11th, 2016 at 06:57:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is noticeable that virtually all the chief war hawks in the US have managed to avoid actual military service themselves -all are willing to fight to the last drop of somone elses blood...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jul 11th, 2016 at 07:27:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, Tony Blair seems to qualify as a chicken hawk - on whose behalf others have led an aborted chicken coup.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Jul 11th, 2016 at 10:02:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Gloom descends again on France as chance of sporting glory is missed
Brexit? To spend a few days here is to encounter embarrassed sympathy rather than hostility. French opinion polls suggest even more Euroscepticism at home than in Britain, resentments Front National's Marine Le Pen was quick to exploit with a call for a Frexit referendum. Scary stuff for the French, who have suffered far more from European division - three traumatic invasions in just 70 years from 1870 to 1940 - than Britons have.

They have also suffered more from unemployment, currently at 10.2%, more than double Germany's 4.5% and Britain's 5%, higher among young people as it is across most of the EU. If fears for good and secure jobs, not zero-hours contracts and stagnant wage rates, drove much of last month's Brexit vote in Britain, they also drive the FN's electoral strength in France - as well as the trade union militancy.

Can the same people strike for the still relatively powerful CGT union over François Hollande's government's attempts to relax rigid labour laws [...] and also vote for Le Pen? Of course, the rhetoric of struggle shifts easily from left to right. A lot of British Labour voters supported Brexit too, despite the campaign being led by free-market Tories who want less social protection from the forces of globalisation. For all the street action, France's workforce, by the way, is 8% unionised, below even the US (11%), let alone Britain (25%).

by das monde on Tue Jul 12th, 2016 at 05:43:26 AM EST
An amazing accumulation of bullshit in one single article.

However, Portugal's 1-0 win over their more fancied French rivals on Sunday night left the same communities feeling distinctly gloomy.

Nobody expected les Bleus to make it to the final, let alone after defeating Germany. This was quite a good Euro for the French team. So, disappointed? Yes, but gloomy? Give me a break...

French opinion polls suggest even more Euroscepticism at home than in Britain, resentments Front National's Marine Le Pen was quick to exploit with a call for a Frexit referendum.

Actually, the latest poll (June 29) shows 33% for Frexit vs. 45% for remain. How does it compare with Britain?

Can the same people strike for the still relatively powerful CGT union over François Hollande's government's attempts to relax rigid labour laws and increase unemployment - read Kim Willsher's background here - and also vote for Le Pen?
For all the street action, France's workforce, by the way, is 8% unionised, below even the US (11%), let alone Britain (25%).

CGT is "still relatively powerful" while at the same time, the French are less unionized than even their US counterparts. Some power. And let's not forget the mandatory reference to the "rigid labour laws". Plus all the moaning about people-I-met-who-tried-to-set-their-own-business-and-gave-up. All the entrepreneurs (a decidedly foreign word) who created their own company haven't received the memo, obviously.

Which is consistent with French attitudes over many decades, consistent with François "I hate the rich" Hollande's stated position before becoming president, since modified in the realities of office.

Hollande's declaration was just an election ploy he didn't even pretend to follow through once elected. We'd be lucky to have a Corbyn in France. Instead, we have Mélanchon.

by Bernard on Wed Jul 13th, 2016 at 08:26:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"All the entrepreneurs (a decidedly foreign word) who created their own company haven't received the memo, obviously."

Who coined the term "entrepreneur"?

Entrepreneur is a French word coined by the economist Jean-Baptiste Say, and usually is translated as, "adventurer". Say studied [Adam] Smith's book and, while agreeing on all points, found that the omission of enterprising businessmen was a serious flaw.



Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jul 14th, 2016 at 10:05:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I actually meant it as a not so subtle reference to this George W Bush's apocryphal quote:

Entrepreneur: The French Do Have A Word For It - Forbes

There's no firm evidence that he actually ever said it, but President George W. Bush's reputed utterance to British Prime Minister Tony Blair that "the trouble with the French is that they don't have a word for entrepreneur" probably echoed a widely held notion that France wasn't a country one immediately associated with entrepreneurs.

Wrong. The country is full of them. It's just that building big name international companies has traditionally never been their strongest point. French start-ups, for the most part, been content to stay local and enjoy success at that level.

by Bernard on Thu Jul 14th, 2016 at 08:15:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
@Krugman_Blog The "uncertainty" bug responsible for forecasts of short term UK economic decline is the inverse of the "confidence fairy" you have oft derided?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Wed Jul 13th, 2016 at 11:42:48 AM EST
Britain's 'Charming Bastard' David Davis to Lead Brexit Talks  Reuters via NYT.

LONDON -- David Davis, a staunchly Eurosceptic lawmaker who says the risk of losing a key export partner will force EU leaders such as Angela Merkel to agree to a free trade deal, was appointed as the man to lead Britain out of the bloc on Wednesday. Davis, 67, was given the newly-created role of Secretary of State for Exiting the European Union by incoming British Prime Minister Theresa May as she set about building her team just hours after taking over from David Cameron.
....
Davis, who was beaten by Cameron in a 2005 party leadership contest, will take on the crucial role of defending Britain's economy from investment-withering uncertainty and covetous neighbors whilst unpicking over four decades of trade, legal and diplomatic ties to the EU. At the heart of the job will be finding an answer to the key negotiating riddle: how can Britain keep access to the EU's single market whilst winning the right to restrict free movement of workers from within the EU?
....
Davis worked in government in Britain's foreign office from 1994 to 1997, with responsibility for negotiations with Europe. During a recent interview with the Yorkshire Post newspaper he recalled that colleagues in Europe had nicknamed him the "charming bastard". He said the friendly nickname came from a Portuguese foreign minister, who also dubbed him "the master of constructive obstruction" at a time when Britain was battling to define its role in the EU as the bloc sought closer integration.

Will he charm Angela Merkle? I suspect that Schäuble is intrinsically charm proof.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Thu Jul 14th, 2016 at 01:17:53 AM EST
I think he is more bastard than charming, and will charm no one, except in an old school "aren't the British quaint" kind of way.

May has actually been very clever.  She has put three of the top Brexiteers in charge of foreign relations: BoJo as Foreign Secretary, Fox in charge of international Trade, and Davis in charge of the negotiations. None will appeal to the Europeans. BoJo is hated for his persistent misrepresentations.

It will now be on the Brexiteer's head if they fail to come up with a good deal, and if they fail to realize all the wonderful opportunities for Trade with the rest of the world which Brexit was supposed to open up.

Expect lots of nice words in public, and people digging in behind the scenes.  I doubt a deal will be done within the two year time frame, and then the UK will be out on their ear without any deal.

A deal subsequent to the two year Article 50 period is unlikely because that would require unanimity among the EU's members and could be blocked by Malta, if it so wished.  Having derided the EU's lack of democracy for so long, the UK would be hoist on the petard of excessive democracy in the EU.

Some things are more important than German car exports.  The EU was built for the long haul.  Expect Scotland to break free and rejoin the EU, and N. Ireland to melt down - peacefully, I hope.  

The EU will bide it's time all the while maintaining internal stability by demonstrating the perils of schism. Everybody wins, except the Brits, and perhaps the Irish...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Jul 14th, 2016 at 10:21:44 AM EST
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