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A50 author thinks it's revocable

by Colman Tue Mar 28th, 2017 at 08:53:57 AM EST

In an interview with Politico.eu John Kerr says:

At that time, the rise of Austrian far-right leader Jörg Haider was a big worry for mainstream EU leaders and some southern European EU members had returned to democracy only in recent decades. Kerr imagined that the exit procedure might be triggered after an authoritarian leader took power in a member country and the EU responded by suspending that country’s right to vote on EU decisions.

“It seemed to me very likely that a dictatorial regime would then, in high dudgeon, want to storm out. And to have a procedure for storming out seemed to be quite a sensible thing to do — to avoid the legal chaos of going with no agreement,” Kerr said.

[…]

He has argued publicly — and controversially — that Article 50 is not irrevocable. In other words, during the two-year negotiating period set out in the text, Britain could decide not to leave after all and simply remain an EU member. However, he says he cannot imagine how politics in Britain would allow such a U-turn.

I guess the job of the Remainers is to effect precisely that U-turn.


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One of the reasons that the Brexiteers are so strident is that they fear that allowing the realistic idea of a U-turn into the discourse makes it likely that it'll happen when negotiations go bad.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Tue Mar 28th, 2017 at 08:55:05 AM EST
And that's on top of:

  • a very slim Leave majority nationwide

  • Remain majorities in London, Scotland and Northern Ireland

  • the Northern Ireland border problem

  • pressure from business interests to remain in the single market

  • the threat of a second referendum on Scottish independence (with the spectacle of Theresa May arguing for the benefits of a union of nations)
With all that going against Brexit, no wonder if they think that strident bellowing about the "will of the people" and traitorous "Remoaners" is needed to keep up the momentum.
by Gag Halfrunt on Tue Mar 28th, 2017 at 10:10:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ultimately, only the hated (by the UK) ECJ could rule definitively whether an A50 notification can be revoked, and in that context, it doesn't matter all that much what one of its claimed authors thinks about it.  What matters is what the high contracting parties to the Lisbon Treaty agreed to sign up to. A legal briefing for the European Parliament states that it is not revocable, but goes on to say that "This  does  not  mean,  however,  that  the  withdrawal  process  could not be suspended, if there was  mutual  agreement  between  the  withdrawing  state, the remaining Member States and the EU institutions, rather than a unilateral revocation."

In other words, a withdrawing state does not have a legal right to withdraw its notification, but a notification could be withdrawn by mutual agreement. Theresa May has, of course, argued that "no agreement is preferable to a bad agreement", implying that the UK is leaving one way or the other. Barring an unlikely general election and a change of government, I can't see that situation changing within the two year time-frame available for negotiation.

Once the UK is out, it will take unanimous EU27 agreement to allow it back in again, and that too seems an unlikely scenario even if the UK changed it's mind.

For all the lies of the Brexit campaigners, and for all the moving of the goal posts since, it's hard to see a scenario where the UK could remain within the EU or rejoin in the foreseeable future. Even if Scotland became independent and N. Ireland entered into some kind of an arrangement with the Republic and both remained/rejoined, it would take the threat of a revolution in England to get the ruling class to admit they made a mistake - something they are not noted for doing.

For the moment the Remainers are clutching at straws - while business is busy preparing for a changed reality.


Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Mar 28th, 2017 at 02:31:45 PM EST


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