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Your guess at most likely Brexit outcome.

by Colman Thu Mar 30th, 2017 at 11:10:16 AM EST

I thought it might be interesting to collect our best guesses at where we'll be in two to five years time.


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My guess at a most likely Brexit Outcome - but with no more than one third  chance, with outcomes ranging from  cliff-edge hard Brexit to A50 retraction (with a side possibility of A50 retraction being refused by courts - wouldn't that be fun?) filling out the rest of the distribution.

  • Maximal single market access, paying bill, free movement with cosmetic but palatable to EU restrictions and HO being pricks so the tabloids get lots of nice stories about people being deported to giggle at. EU will get significant access payments from UK. Natural forces will restrict immigration enough that May can claim 100k target met, then will creep up again. Conditions for EU immigrants will be worse than now, but that's ok because:

  • UK free of any regulation that would restrict its local robber barons from exploiting the work force or the environment as rapaciously as they can conceive of so the locals won't be any better off than European migrants.

  • Financial services will take a beating, but not one that a well connected Tory can't work around, so that doesn't matter.

  • No ECJ in UK, just for UK-EU legal issues.

  • Security cooperation and so on will be maintained.

  • No idea about Scotland or NI: not sure how a fig leaf Brexit affects them.

  • Soft hi tech customs border with IE. Common travel area is maintained and means people aren't a problem.

  • Much more austerity and privatisation, habitat destruction and so on, so underlying drives to Brexit not addressed. No idea what happens when the people discover it was a con - hopefully enough of them will have died off that full-on fascism doesn't materialise.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Mar 30th, 2017 at 11:15:52 AM EST
I thought your position was that the outcome was unknowable, and speculation useless

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Mar 30th, 2017 at 12:51:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I said I wouldn't put money on it.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Mar 30th, 2017 at 01:13:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It may not be your money, but an awful lot of generally risk averse money is riding on the outcome. Hence a lot of banks and investment funds hedging their bets at the moment. That in itself is not good news for the UK economy.

My view has always been that the short term possible impacts are variable, but that the longer term impacts will be incrementally and increasingly bad for the UK, and not altogether good for the EU either.

My median expectations for 10 years from now:

  1. No substantial Brexit deal followed by trade war between UK/EU followed by a very poor trade deal from a UK point of view (possibly worse than third parties currently enjoy). (Schultz may succeed Merkel and pursue an even harder line).
  2. Scotland Independent within EU (and probably Eurozone) with huge acrimony over share of national debt etc.
  3. N.I. Sovereignty transferred from London to Dublin/Brussels with local devolved institutions more or less as is - i.e. not functioning very well
  4. UK economy and currency to decline c. 30% relative to EU27/Euro with only a slow recovery afterwards
  5. Class war, industrial strife, and a return of the "English Disease" to dominate English society. Immigrants will be blamed even thought they are generally hard working, tax paying, law abiding and declining in numbers anyway due to declining wages and unemployment crisis.
  6. Ireland weathers the economic and political storms surprisingly well with continued growth driven by a wide range of UK businesses (not just banking) relocating part of their operations here to avoid tariff and non-tariff barriers.  This could exacerbate urban/rural tensions in Ireland as the larger towns/cities will benefit most while agriculture and food exports to UK decline.
  7. A mild recession, at worst, in the EU effecting mainly the richer northern states who are forced to diversify their export markets more
  8. Some ongoing reforms within a more and more German dominated EU, but not enough to address fundamental structural imbalances and inequalities
  9. Political instability within some EU states as regional and far right nationalist parties continue to make gains and rule in some countries
  10. The EU becomes more of a "player" in the global politics taking over some security functions from NATO, operating more independently of US interests, more neutrally in the middle east, and building alliances with Russia, China, India and other rising economies.


Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Mar 30th, 2017 at 02:41:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, I've heard that many City companies have rejected Frankfurt as a possible new centre because these are hire-and-fire industries where you are judged on your last quarter; something I believe German employment law makes difficult.

So, it's Dublin or Paris;-
Paris is good cos it's a train ride away. Food is good, but they speak French and their laws are wrong (or something).

So.....Dublin. Which is unfortunate cos Dublin is waaaaaay too small to cope. Dublin had better sort out a greenfield site with a lot of potential and then sell it to the City before it gets out of hand. Looking ahead and planning is what goverment is for, guys. (psssst, Limerick and Shannon is your best bet)

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Mar 30th, 2017 at 03:32:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, the governments lack of infrastructural planning and spending is going to bite us in the ass big time - particularly housing and public transport.  However there is still scope for an expansion of the Dublin Financial Services centre into the docklands and Dublin airport owns a large tract of land around the airport which they say they want to develop into a business park.

I'm not sure how many front office staff would have to move to establish a sufficient EU presence for passporting purposes and back office staff can be located anywhere.  I would expect an Apple like scenario - huge volumes of assets and some activities are relocated in Ireland, but not necessarily huge numbers of jobs.

The banks will probably take the opportunity to automate and technologise huge numbers of jobs - so while London will lose hundreds of thousands of jobs - perhaps only tens of thousands will re-materialise elsewhere.

I would be more hopeful of a wide range of other UK businesses which require single market access setting up operations in Ireland - many of them relatively small and which can be located in smaller towns and cities across the country and which can offset the loss of agricultural/food jobs in rural areas much better than an under pressure greater Dublin area.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Mar 30th, 2017 at 06:18:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This sounds likely.
by fjallstrom on Thu Mar 30th, 2017 at 02:55:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
hopefully enough of them will have died off that full-on fascism doesn't materialise
you make it sound like the problem is the older voters. Shortly after Brexit a bunch of teenagers beat to death a Polist who was having a pizza on a terrace. This weekend another group of teenagers nearly beat to death an teenage asylum seeker they found at a bus stop.
It is understood that the suspects asked the victim where he was from, and when they established that he was an asylum seeker they chased him and launched a brutal attack.


A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 2nd, 2017 at 06:22:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A Polish man, that is.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 2nd, 2017 at 08:52:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think the Book of Revelations covers most of what I think will happen.

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Mar 30th, 2017 at 01:52:08 PM EST
Who plays the beast of the apocalypse?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Mar 30th, 2017 at 02:04:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Boris

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 30th, 2017 at 02:33:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Does Revelations not provide a role for a buffoon/clown/court jester?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Mar 30th, 2017 at 02:52:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think God could fill the bill on that one.
by de Gondi (publiobestia aaaatttthotmaildaughtusual) on Thu Mar 30th, 2017 at 08:39:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
God's been hard at work on it for a long time. Well, eternity, actually.

I used to be afew. I'm still not many.
by john_evans (john(dot)evans(dot)et(at)gmail(dot)com) on Thu Apr 6th, 2017 at 07:12:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes! And we have been the butt of his jest.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Apr 7th, 2017 at 03:11:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Revelations 17.3
So he carried me away in the spirit into the wilderness: and I saw a woman sit upon a scarlet coloured beast, full of names of blasphemy, having seven heads and ten horns.
This seems to be more or less what they had in mind.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Fri Mar 31st, 2017 at 06:05:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But the Eurozone has 19 members, not just 7 heads and 10 horns, so it must have grown an extra pair of horns somewhere....

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Mar 31st, 2017 at 11:12:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hey, when you're being mown down by a monster like that, you don't get picky about the counting. "Many" is plenty close enough

keep to the Fen Causeway
by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Fri Mar 31st, 2017 at 11:36:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What did the Euro ever do to you?

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Mar 31st, 2017 at 04:05:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, that's Europe being abducted by a bull market.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 2nd, 2017 at 06:09:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Here is one plausible scenario:
  • no serious negotiations during 2017 as the EU waits for Germany's general election in September
  • since total uncertainty persists until less than 18 months before the Brexit date of March 2019, most large corporations put set in motion their no-deal-Brexit contingency plans
  • in particular airlines, car manufacturers and banks start visibly moving their operations to the eurozone
  • this hardens the position of the brexiteers, and there is a public backlash against traitorous big business in the UK
  • negotiations to go off the rails


A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Thu Mar 30th, 2017 at 02:29:41 PM EST
I would expect uncertainty to persist right up to E (xit) day with hopes of a last minute deal...

Will Macron/Schulz seek to exploit French/German anti-Brexit feeling in their election campaigns?  This could change the negotiating landscape...

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Mar 30th, 2017 at 06:23:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The most likely outcome is Brexit. May said so.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Thu Mar 30th, 2017 at 02:42:20 PM EST
And as we all now know, Brexit means Brexit.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Thu Mar 30th, 2017 at 02:51:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As I said yesterday: the hardest of hard exits.  

I don't know enough about the UK to hazard a guess at how that will work-out.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Thu Mar 30th, 2017 at 03:43:34 PM EST
Not much hope for either entity, EU, or UK to thrive given the arbitrary blocks on public spending through Maastricht, Frankfurt's hard money policy, competition for dark money as the City mentality is agnostic and rivals will sprout up as long as we have tax havens winked at.
As world GNP slows, hegemony will revert to statism,  and the goal will be to navigate with one national bureaucracy, rather than that and another layer of EU regulations on top of that and both out of sync with reality.
In two years the EU will be hanging by a thread, and the vainglory of its heyday will be a memory of how well it started and how badly it ended, hostage to Erdogan, target to Putin'n'Trump.
Scotland will split off, Catalonia too, England will suffer under the Tories because Labour has no new narrative capable of coping with geopolitics of today.

Unless a collective bout of terminal lucidity kicks in and Diem 25/M5 do a clean sweep at polls and turn the EU upside down shaking out all the crooks, like Iceland -and recently- Spain.

'Felice decrescita' to all! (It sounds a lot nicer in Italian).

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Fri Mar 31st, 2017 at 12:32:21 PM EST
I've been meaning to do a counter-intuitive post on this for a while

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Mar 31st, 2017 at 04:08:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm uncertain what political transformation you intend to describe.

Perhaps the issue is the scope of "statism", either theoretical or physical, that ahh so-called nationalist, progressives, liberal, and fascist persons affiliated with the several ahh developed, or First World, nation-states are believed by various, similarly-situated pubic intellectuals to (dis)approve of.

Whereas statism denotes functions of government bureaucracy that enforce laws, the contested range of "hegemony" of any one state relies on the enforceable, physical boundaries of that state's jurisdiction to satisfy hegemony of a state.

So-called supra-national organization of ahh states (federations, confederacies, alliances) such as NATO, EU, and USA have failed that hegemonic test in practice if not theory over several centuries of trials to impose principles of ahh democratic political economy, or suzerainty upon Third World territories.

How did you intend to differentiate the principles and purposes of hegemony and statism?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sat Apr 1st, 2017 at 11:20:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sacré Britons! Look who wants to be French now - Politico
LONDON -- Angered by Brexit, increasing numbers of pro-European Brits are taking drastic action -- they're becoming French.

New figures from the French consulate in London reveal a big uptick in applications for French citizenship since last year's referendum on EU membership. Officials have seen a 39 percent increase in the number seeking citizenship through marriage in January to March this year compared to 2016.

But Debra Kelly, a professor of francophone studies of the University of Westminster and author of "A History of the French in London," said the figures chimed with anecdotal evidence of Brits with French relatives seeking citizenship.

"It is young people in particular that really do feel cheated of their European citizenship and are applying for new passports," she said. "They were comfortable and just expected to grow up and into a European identity which they feel has been taken away from them.

"I have a colleague who has two children, she is a Londoner born and bred, her partner is French, they have two children born here. Immediately [after the Brexit vote] her two children wanted to get French citizenship. To me it seems more like an identity statement. They feel like something has been taken away from them."

by Bernard on Sat Apr 8th, 2017 at 06:31:18 PM EST
Applications for Irish passports from residents of England, Scotland and Wales have almost doubled following Britain's referendum vote to leave the EU, according to new figures.

In the three months from July to September, 21,549 people applied for an Irish passport, compared with 10,959 in the same period last year, according to figures from the Department of Foreign Affairs.

Applications for Irish passports in Northern Ireland also jumped to 15,757 from 9,401 in 2015.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Apr 9th, 2017 at 02:46:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
sadly I'm trapped. All of my ancestors are english to at least Great Grandparents. I know that one branch of the family came from Wales and my surname is from the Scottish border lands (ie S Scotland). But it's all a long way back.

So I'm stuck unless the EU allow me an out

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Apr 9th, 2017 at 09:27:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Can you play rugby?  There is a three year residency rule for overseas professionals who can then qualify to play for Ireland, and, ultimately, an Irish passport. I'd be happy to sponsor you, even if you do seem addicted to dodgy English "craft" beers...! :-)

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Apr 10th, 2017 at 02:01:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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