A European perpective on the last US presidential debate

by Frank Schnittger Tue Oct 23rd, 2012 at 08:10:17 AM EST

I watched the debate in Spain at 3.00AM so wasn't at my sharpest. Europe wasn't mentioned much except when Romney choose Greece as a metaphor for things going sour if the national deficit isn't tackled. I wonder how Greek US voters feel about that! Some impressions from a European perspective:

1. Obama immediately started attacking Romney - didn't seem quite "Presidential", "above the fray" yadda yadda

2. Obama was at a disadvantage in attacking Romney because Romney has zero actual foreign policy experience, so all Obama's criticisms seemed personal, almost petty. Romney could attack broad Government decisions or events or outcomes, and it didn't come across as quite so personal.

3. Romney tacked so hard to the left on substance, it's hard to see how this could not hurt him with some of his thinking base - although the wingnuts were probably just keen to see him act "Presidential" and couldn't give a crap about actual policy.

4. Romney's attempt to say he never would have "let Detroit go bankrupt" was so incredible it probably undermined his credibility on every other issue. Sometimes you just have to own up and admit you made a mistake - it hurts a lot less that coming across as totally unbelievable and dishonest - and improves your credibility elsewhere because everybody accepts you will make some mistakes and will be relieved that you own up when you do.

5. Romney said the word "Peace" so many times in his closing - even where it didn't fit into the meaning of the rest of the sentence it almost sounded ridiculous - a palinesque word salad - as if some focus group polling told him that was the word which got the most positive emotional response from swing voters.

6. Diehard Republicans will be satisfied that Romney looked Presidential compared to a carping President - some will worry that he tacked so far to the centre that his positions often seemed indistinguishable if not to the left of Obama. It will reassure some he is not a wingnut and others that he is "ready for office".

7. On the Dem side Obama did what he had to do to reassure and bring out his base.

8. My guess is that the few remaining undecideds will call it a near draw and go with the "devil the know" rather than an unknown and unknowable Romney who spent the night trying to show he is not Bush, but who is still too much of a reminder of the Bush years.

9. If Romney were the incumbent and Obama the challenger, undecideds might have gone with Romney as the safer bet.

10. If Romney loses narrowly he might yet become the GOP nominee in 2016. He has probably done enough to make Republican's feel he is their best hope in a contest they will be absolutely desperate to win after 8 years of Obama. He will then be regarded as "experienced" even though he will be 69 and won't actually have held down a real job in 14 years.

The MSM/polling reaction to the debate of a slight/pronounced Obama edge will probably also help swing those undecided voters who switched to the football long before the end of the debate. It will help create a narrative that Obama is back on his game and that the first debate was an uncharacteristic "blip".

Some voters need reassurance that the President still wants it badly enough to really fight for them. The setback at the first debate may actually help Obama in the long run - killing any complacency on the Democrat side and reassuring independents that Obama is not too aloof or arrogant to stop listening to them or caring about their concerns. Everybody likes a comeback kid. Romney had that going for him after the first debate - now that psychological edge is with the President.

It's better to have the late momentum rather than to peak too early and have the narrative saying your lead is slipping coming up to the polls. It's surprising how many voters make a very very late impulse decision almost after they enter the polling booth. In the privacy of that space the temptation is to play it safe - whatever fighting public positions you may have taken with your friends outside.

LQD: Poll shows vast majority back Obama

by Frank Schnittger Mon Oct 22nd, 2012 at 11:47:46 AM EST

79% of Irish people back President Obama, while only 5% want Romney to win the election according to a new poll.

October Surprise: War or peace with Iran?

by Frank Schnittger Mon Oct 22nd, 2012 at 08:49:12 AM EST

It's a pity that Chris Cook doesn't post here anymore, but his latest piece on the front page of the Asia Times on secret US Iranian negotiations is an excellent discussion of what might yet become a positive "October Surprise" prior to the US Presidential election on Nov. 6th.

Asia Times Online :: Iran talks denial adds debate spice

Firstly, we saw an Iranian ex-Revolutionary Guard insider outlining - in remarkable detail - discussions he claimed had been held between the United States and Iran. These apparently culminated within the past three weeks in high level contacts in Qatar between a close confidante of President Barack Obama - Valerie Jarrett, who was actually born in Iran - and one or more high level Iranian officials.

The outcome of these talks, in respect of which the source was allegedly at the highest level in Iran, was that an agreement between the US and Iran would be announced before the US presidential election takes place on November 6, provided that Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei receives the written guarantees he requires from President Obama.

Given that Romney has made his hawkishness on Iran a centrepiece of his foreign policy, it might also give the President some ammunition for tonight's Presidential debate on foreign policy. However there is one point on which I would disagree with Chris. He goes on to state:

Message to Europe: Ireland was never bailed out

by Frank Schnittger Wed Oct 10th, 2012 at 04:51:09 AM EST

It's not often I praise the contributions of Irish politicians. However my local independent TD (Member of Parliament) deserves an honorable mention. Both in public and private he has offered a very cogent explanation of Ireland's currently very dysfunctional relationship with the EU. Here he is addressing Martin Schultz, President of the European Parliament.

The essence of his argument is that Ireland did not receive, and does not want a bail-out. It got €64 Billion from the Troika which it gave to banks which are now either defunct or intent on squeezing the remaining lifeblood from Irish consumers to cover their losses. This was done at the insistence of the EU Commission and ECB regardless of whether or not those banks were included in the Irish state bank guarantee scheme. These banks in turn gave that money to other (mostly European) banks, investors and bondholders - despite the fact that they were otherwise insolvent.

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My PLAN

by Frank Schnittger Thu Oct 4th, 2012 at 05:14:27 PM EST

I have a plan. It has five points that are no more than aspirational bullet points and a few numbers that I never bother to add up or connect to one another. It says more or less what I say it says when it suits me to say something I want to say. One day it provides tax breaks for the wealthy, and the next day it does no such thing. One day it covers pre-existing conditions, and another day it doesn't. Sometime my plan includes €716 Billion in cuts to Medicare costs, and sometimes it doesn't. But mostly I just criticize the President for including it in his plan anyway.

But the real beauty of my plan is that it confused the hell out of the President in our debate. He didn't seem to realize how flexible my plan is. And anyway, since it is MY plan, who are the viewers going to believe knows more about it? ME or the President?

In a way it is a Creationist plan. It is going to create wealth because I say it is. And the more wealth it creates the bigger the chance that the numbers will turn out all right anyway. Never mind that it's all been tried before - particularly by President W Bush. (His father decried it as voodoo economics when Reagan tried the same thing). Never mind that it led to a great crash. Our people did alright by that, and capitalism is all about creative destruction.

But the main thing is my plan includes all the right buzzwords and sound-bites about FREEDOM, ENTERPRISE INNOVATION, EDUCATION, and MARKETS and it criticizes TAXES, GOVERNMENT, RED TAPE, ENTITLEMENTS, DEFICITS, DEPENDENCY, BUREAUCRATS and SOCIALISM. That's all that people really need to know. I am on the side of the angels, and that Obama guy is to blame for all our problems.

It's a beautiful plan really, and if it gets me elected, it will have fulfilled its primary purpose, and I can throw it into the kids homework and see if they can figure it out. It's so vague anyway, no one will be able to prove I didn't keep my word. And that Obama guy? He can go back to college where he belongs. If you can't make your own facts, you have no right to be President.

Why President Obama should compete in Arizona

by Frank Schnittger Thu Sep 27th, 2012 at 08:18:27 AM EST

President Obama has been building a national lead of c.5% with bigger leads in all the battleground states except N. Carolina where he is roughly tied. However the key to a successful second term will be in his ability to broaden his support base beyond his 2008 map and in his ability to re-gain control of Congress.

In this regard, the benefits of his competing in traditionally red states states like Arizona which have become more competitive recently are numerous:

1. It shows confidence and that he is competing for the support of all Americans.

2. It takes away from the national narrative that he is running an overly cautious campaign and helps to excite his base everywhere

3. There are proportionally more undecided in Arizona when compared to battleground states.

4. Any improvement in polling in Arizona will have a marginal beneficial impact on his national polling and thus on the psychology of the race more generally.

5. Arizona is relatively virgin territory and voters there are not fatigued with excessive adverting - so the impact of any ads will be far greater

6. The surprise factor will make it newsworthy and multiply his actual investment in advertising on news/talk programs

7. It will be demoralizing for Romney to have to actually compete on his own "turf" and will show he is in bad shape nationally if he has to do so - not to mention draining his resources from elsewhere.

8. All Obama has to do is show up at a rally for a couple of hours and ask "has anybody seen Romney here lately?"

9. It helps a key competitive senate candidate (Carmona) and in other down ballot races.

10. It builds the Dem map for the future

11. It gives Californian Dem supporters something positive to do in a competitive neighboring state.

12. Depending on the structure of the media markets, any investment in Arizona may also have a spill-over effect in border regions of Nevada and New Mexico.

Ditto in Montana, Indiana, Missouri and South Carolina - the investment in time/money doesn't have to be huge to create a multiplier effect, force Romney further onto the defensive and have an incremental positive effect on national polls. There simply aren't enough undecideds left in the "battleground" states to make any further improvement possible there without huge incremental cost.

Sometimes fighting behind enemy lines can have a hugely disproportionate effect in damaging enemy morale when compared to the usual front-line pitched battle.

LLQD: Romney the abortion profiteer and death squad supporter

by Frank Schnittger Tue Aug 14th, 2012 at 05:36:05 AM EST

Which presidential candidate is truly pro-life? | National Catholic Reporter

There is no doubt Obama is pro-choice. He has said so many times. There is also no doubt Romney is running on what he calls a pro-life platform. But any honest analysis of the facts shows the situation is much more complicated than that.

For example, Obama's Affordable Care Act does not pay for abortions. In Massachusetts, Romney's health care law does. Obama favors, and included in the Affordable Care Act, $250 million of support for vulnerable pregnant women and alternatives to abortion. This support will make abortions much less likely, since most abortions are economic. Romney, on the other hand, has endorsed Wisconsin Republican Paul Ryan's budget, which will cut hundreds of millions of dollars out of the federal plans that support poor women. The undoubted effect: The number of abortions in the United States will increase. On these facts, Obama is much more pro-life than Romney.

But does Romney actually profit from abortions and death squads? Read on...

Rmoney and Ryawn: Bain & Pain Inc.

by Frank Schnittger Mon Aug 13th, 2012 at 08:28:58 AM EST

Twitter/BooMan23: Ryan probably sealed his selection when he wet his pants while shaking Romney's hand

The US economy is growing at what Americans consider an anaemic 1.5% - a rate most Europeans can only dream about. President Obama is languishing in the polls at a 46% job approval rating (49% disapprove) and at 39% - 53% disapproval on the Economy. And yet he leads Romney by a fairly consistent 2-3% average in the polls, and more in most of the critical swing states which determine the outcome of the Presidential election college.

Romney has been running what has been quite possibly the most incompetent political campaign in the history of US Presidential elections and yet remains in with a 28% chance of winning largely because of record donations from his billionaire and millionaire backers to "Superpacs" which market him as a brand rather than attempt to engage in any kind of rational political or policy debate.

And now Romney has nominated as his Vice Presidential running mate a man who has built his reputation on proposing budgets which give massive tax breaks to millionaires whilst turning Medicare into an insurance voucher programme and privatising social welfare: proposals which poll some way south of chlamydia in popularity whenever explained to the electorate. Indeed Booman has been arguing for some time that the Democrats chief problem up until now has been in convincing voters that the Ryan Budget plan could actually contain such wildly unpopular elements.

So what gives?

Re-thinking Ireland's strategic relationship with Britain

by Frank Schnittger Sat Jul 14th, 2012 at 05:57:34 AM EST

A number of things have been happening over the past few years which are beginning to have an impact on the relationship between Ireland and the UK, and may go on to have profound implications for the future of the EU, or at least Ireland's place within it. In the past an historic enmity between Ireland and Britain arising from almost a thousand years of invasions, wars, colonial occupation, famines, economic exploitation and neo-colonial struggle led the nascent Irish state to adopt an almost "anybody but Britain" attitude to foreign affairs: staying officially neutral during the Second World war and enthusiastically adopting the EU project as a means of reducing its economic dependency on the UK. The ongoing troubles in Northern Ireland merely added fuel to these flames.

However the success of the Northern Ireland Peace Process, the emergence of a much more self-confident (not to say arrogant) Irish Republic during the Celtic Tiger years, and the modernisation of the economic infrastructure and social attitudes as part of the European project has softened what tensions remained. Now even the Queen has visited Ireland; Martin McGuinness, former IRA Chief of Staff and now Northern Ireland's Deputy First Minister has shaken her hand, and the Irish and UK Governments are increasingly allied on all matters of foreign policy - and especially so in relation to the EU. In particular, the seemingly endless Eurozone crisis is leading to a re-evaluation of whether closer ties with the UK may not be such a bad idea after all.

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The fields of Athenry

by Frank Schnittger Sat Jun 16th, 2012 at 10:25:55 AM EST

Irish supporters are our best ambassadors | Frank Schnittger: Irish Examiner

Far from being disgraced by losing 4-0 to an outstanding Spanish team, the Irish team fought to the end, and the Irish supporters were simply magnificent.

Too bad the Irish supporters can't represent Ireland in the Eurovision song contest.

Angela Merkel may think the Irish should be at home working, but instead we have sent out 40,000 ambassadors to prove that sportsmanship and solidarity in Europe is not dead.

There has been some cynical comment about the Irish being glorious in defeat once again; about how pathetic it is to be singing songs in the wake of a comprehensive trashing by the World Champions. But the spirited rendition of The fields of Athenry in the final minutes and long after the match had ended had to be seen and heard to be believed: How often is it that boos, catcalls and various missiles greet a defeated football team long before the end of a match. How often does sporting defeat lead to wanton vandalism and violence on the part of so called supporters.

To quote an Englishman: G. K. Chesterton

For the great Gaels of Ireland
Are the men that God made mad,
For all their wars are merry,
And all their songs are sad

The Manufacturing of Consent

by Frank Schnittger Wed Jun 6th, 2012 at 10:08:02 AM EST

So Fear triumphed over Anger and the Irish referendum on the Stability Treaty was passed by a "resounding" 60:40 margin on a 50% poll - more or less as predicted by the opinion polls and close to the average turnout for similar stand alone referenda in the past. Not much of interest here; time to move on to the Greek elections and Spanish banking crisis if the MSM are to be believed.

The government has been quick to spin the result as an endorsement for its austerity strategy and as a positive message to send to the rest of Europe (and the global investment community) of Ireland's unequivocal commitment to the Euro. Sure, there have been the usual noises about the need to promote a growth strategy for Europe and to revisit the "sovereigntising" of private banking debt and the hope that any new strategy devised for Spain involving more direct European bailing out of Spanish banks will be retrospectively made available to Ireland.

Quite how a YES vote was meant to advance that agenda is less than clear. German responses to Irish pleas have already been dismissive: Revisiting the sovereigntising of Irish banking debt would send out a "negative signal" apparently...
Kenny admits immediate bank debt deal unlikely

...but senior German officials dispute Mr Kenny’s interpretation of Ireland’s fiscal treaty vote as a “message to European Union leaders” for a “just” debt deal. “We see no need for movement at the moment,” said Martin Kotthaus, spokesman for finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble.

Indeed. The German Government clearly knows what the Irish people are thinking better than the Irish Government itself...

front-paged at last by afew

The balance of anger and fear

by Frank Schnittger Thu May 17th, 2012 at 05:14:45 AM EST

I've been away out of the country for a while and out of touch with the referendum debate raging in Ireland concerning the Fiscal Stability Treaty. So a seminar in Trinity College Dublin on the topic led by a lawyer, an economist and a sociologist seemed like a good way to get back into the topic. The speakers were:

1. Dr. Gavin Barrett, School of Law, University College Dublin (Voting YES)
   
2. Prof. Terrence McDonough, School of Business & Economics, National University of Ireland, Galway (Voting NO)
   
3. Trinity's Head of School of Social Sciences and Philosophy, Prof. James Wickham (my old Sociology Prof. voting DON'T Know).

Dr. Barrett's main points were that there is very little in the Treaty that is not already contained in previous Treaties and Council decisions, and that the Treaty, through the establishment of the ESM, provides Ireland with an insurance policy in case we needed further funding after the current Troika led "bail-out" expires at the end of 2013. Ireland needs to roll-over c. €18 Billion of debt in 2014 alone, and may not be able to achieve that funding on the sovereign debt markets or from the IMF in the absence of ECB/European Commission goodwill and support.

In a subsequent question I noted that many Irish voters might regard external restraints on Government borrowing as a good thing in itself given the experience of two Fianna Fail led administrations in the late 1970's and from the late 1990's onwards, which effectively bought their way to power on the promise of tax reductions and public expenditure increases at a time when the economy was already growing rapidly. The resulting booms led to rather painful busts which Irish voters will not wish to see repeated.

So why all the fuss, and why is there a real possibility the Treaty will be rejected?

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Irish European stability treaty referendum vote in the balance

by Frank Schnittger Sat Apr 21st, 2012 at 06:13:31 AM EST

Undecided voters hold key to outcome of referendum

The outcome of the European stability treaty referendum on May 31st is wide open, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll which shows the result is in the hands of undecided voters.

Asked whether they were likely to vote Yes or No to the treaty, 30 per cent of voters said Yes, 23 per cent said No, 39 per cent were undecided and 8 per cent said they would not vote. When undecided voters, and those who won't vote, are excluded the Yes side is ahead by 58 per cent to 42 per cent but the outcome hinges on the attitude of the currently undecided voters.

A real worry for the Government is that at a similar stage in the first Lisbon Treaty referendum campaign in May 2008, the Yes side had a much bigger lead but the measure was rejected by the electorate in June of that year by 53 per cent to 47 per cent.

However, the Yes side can take heart from the fact that support for a No vote has halved since the last Irish Times poll in October, which asked people how they were likely to vote if EU leaders agreed on a treaty to deal with the fiscal crisis.

At that stage 28 per cent said they would vote Yes, 47 per cent No and 25 per cent were undecided.

The details of today's poll show that the Yes campaign has strong backing from middle-class voters and farmers but working-class voters are opposed to it by a large margin.

There is also a significant gender difference, with men more supportive of the treaty, while almost half of women voters have yet to make up their minds.

The Irish referendum on the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) treaty is scheduled to take place on 31st. May, and there has been some criticism that this allows inadequate time for a public information campaign and debate. The domestic political landscape has been dominated by controversial new household taxes, water charges and septic tank charges that the Government, allegedly under Troika pressure, is trying to introduce in order to broaden the tax base. The run up to the campaign has also been complicated by efforts to restructure the Anglo-Irish Bank Promissory notes which have so far been stonewalled by the ECB.

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White hole

by Frank Schnittger Fri Mar 30th, 2012 at 08:09:41 AM EST

RTE Radio 1 are running a flash fiction competition. I don't read much fiction and write less. I had never even heard of flash fiction which, in this case, is a challenge to write a story in less than 500 words. Even I must be able to do that methought. So here goes below. Attempt #1.

Bertie Ahern was lying

by Frank Schnittger Fri Mar 23rd, 2012 at 07:18:29 AM EST

The laws of libel are very strict in Ireland. Damages and legal costs for defamation can be ruinous. The Irish Times is a conservative bastion of the establishment. And yet they can print this:
Martin and Fianna Fáil can spare us the act, we don't want to hear it now

SPARE US your indignation, Micheál Martin. Button your disgust, Fianna Fáil. We don't want to hear it. You had your chance and you chose to do nothing. So don't pretend to be shocked now.
Just do us that much. We won't buy it.

If the tribunal were to take another 15 years to deliver its findings, you'd still be sitting on your hands.

I sat through all of Bertie Ahern's evidence. It was appalling.

Hilarious? Frequently. Pathetic? Often. Infuriating? Utterly. Embarrassing? Completely.

I didn't believe it then and I don't believe it now.

And, unlike the clever people entrusted by us to run the country at the time, I didn't have to wait years for a tribunal of inquiry to tell me.

But did it matter? Well yes, it did, because this man, grinning in the witness box, was our taoiseach.

He wasn't a corner-cutting property developer. He wasn't a millionaire builder, doing what you have to do to close a deal. He wasn't an amoral middle-man or a small-time councillor on the make.

Bertie Ahern was the prime minister of our country, holder of the highest office in the land.

That's supposed to mean something.

And he was lying through his teeth. Anybody with half an ounce of wit could see it.

Reporters detailed his ridiculous explanations for the huge amounts of money washing through his myriad accounts, and resting in his office safes. The most cursory of examinations of the daily transcripts would have shown up his risible stories for the twaddle that they were.

But throughout, his government and party turned a blind eye; squirmed and twisted and gave every manner of excuse to avoid the blindingly obvious taking place in full public view in a State-established inquiry.

He was lying.

The best laid plans on mice and men...

by Frank Schnittger Wed Feb 29th, 2012 at 11:38:36 AM EST

O woe is me! Despite all attempts at avoiding a referendum in Ireland on the "fiscal compact", the Attorney General has ruled that "on balance" one will be required to amend the Constitution to accomodate the pact...

Referendum to be held on European fiscal compact - The Irish Times - Tue, Feb 28, 2012

The Government is to put the revised European Union fiscal compact treaty which tightens controls on member states' budgetary decisions to a referendum,  Taoiseach Enda Kenny told the Dáil this afternoon.

The compact, agreed at special EU summit last month, proposes tough new budgetary discipline on each euro zone state, including near-zero public deficits. Twenty-five of the European Union's 27 countries have signed up to the new treaty, with only Britain and the Czech Republic opposed.

Mr Kenny told the House that the Attorney General's advice at this morning's Cabinet meeting was that "on balance", a referendum was required to ratify it. Scheduled Dáil business was interrupted for the statement.

The Taoiseach said that he intended to sign the treaty at the weekend with all the heads of the EU in Brussels. In the coming weeks, he said the Government would finalise the arrangements and the process leading to the referendum, leading to the establishment of a referendum commission. No date was given for the poll.

Counter Reformation?

by Frank Schnittger Tue Feb 21st, 2012 at 09:41:46 AM EST

Vatican row a storm in a teacup | Irish Examiner Tuesday, February 21, 2012

For the last time, can we please put an end to this nonsense about the Vatican embassy?

Our diplomatic relations with the Vatican have not been sundered. Our ambassador is merely resident in Dublin, as is the Papal Nuncio.

Neither has our embassy in Rome been closed. It is just that our former embassy to the Vatican, the Villa Spada, now houses our embassy to Italy.

The only reason our ambassador to the Vatican is now resident in Dublin is because the Vatican has a unilaterally imposed policy of not allowing ambassadors to Italy to be also accredited to the Vatican.

As a direct consequence of this, many countries accredit their ambassador in some other European country to the Vatican. We do not generally tell other countries who they can and can not accredit to Ireland as their ambassador.

Neither should we. Except in extreme circumstances.

If the Holy See would only return us this courtesy, we could accredit our ambassador to Italy to the Vatican as well, saving us the cost of two embassies in one city, and putting an end to this needless controversy.

Perhaps this is the "leaner" compromise referred to by Archbishop Diarmuid Martin before a liturgical reception for the new papal nuncio, Archbishop Charles J Brown last Sunday.

Frank Schnittger
Blessington
Co Wicklow

Obama wins GOP Primaries (to date)

by Frank Schnittger Wed Feb 8th, 2012 at 07:10:51 PM EST

In The Political Paradox of US conservatism I argued that whenever Romney looked like tying up the Republican nomination, some other more conservative candidate popped up to steal the lead. First it was Sarah Palin, then Michelle Bachmann, then Rick Perry, then Herman Cain and then Newt Gingrich who led the polls. And then Rick Santorum appeared from almost nowhere to win the first caucus in Iowa.  Romney recovered to win New Hampshire but was then trounced by Newt Gingrich in South Carolina. Romney then won Florida and Nevada only to be trounced by Santorum in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado.

For all his money, organisation, endorsements and establishment support, the Republican base just can't get to like Romney. Next up is Michigan, which is unlikely to vote Romney (even though his father was a popular Governor there).  The reason? Romney's New Yourk Times' Op ed piece "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt" is unlikely to play well there even amongst conservative GOP voters. Clint Eastwood's "Half time in America " ad during the Superbowl final couldn't have come at a worse time for Romney. Eastwood, a lifetime Republican voter, didn't explicitly endorse Obama.  But he sure endorsed Obama's message that the Auto bail-out worked.

So as Romney, Gingrich and Santorum continue to savage one other with attack ads containing accusations so negative that even Democrats haven't dared to throw at their Republican opponents there has been one clear winner to date: Barack Obama.

Strange Fruit

by Frank Schnittger Sat Feb 4th, 2012 at 06:59:51 AM EST

(Version by Nina Simone)

Southern trees bear strange fruit
Blood on the leaves and blood at the root
Black bodies swinging in the southern breeze
Strange fruit hanging from the popular trees

Pastoral scene of the gallant south
The bulging eyes and the twisted mouth
Scent of magnolias, sweet and fresh
Then the sudden smell of burning flesh

Here is fruit for the crows to pluck
For the rain to gather, for the wind to suck
For the sun to rot, for the trees to drop
Here is a strange and bitter cry

The Political Paradox of US conservatism.

by Frank Schnittger Mon Jan 2nd, 2012 at 08:26:19 PM EST

Having written almost 40 diaries on US politics in and around the time of the last US Presidential Elections, I decided to leave it to the experts to comment on US political developments since then. However despite trying to keep up to date by reading Booman and a few other US media sources, I have become increasingly puzzled by the direction of the US politics since then, and particularly by the Republican Presidential candidate nomination process. Perhaps people with more expertise than I on US politics can help me out.

Mitt Romney seems to be the candidate all conservatives Republicans love to hate, partly because of his perceived flip flopping on conservative wedge issues like abortion and public health care, but also perhaps because of his Mormonism and alleged "robotic" personality. Thus, although he is the most experienced, best funded, and best organised candidate, he has failed to achieve more than c. 25%  support from the Republican faithful. The Republican establishment have overwhelmingly backed him as the only Republican candidate to regularly defeat President Obama in opinion poll match-ups.  But the Republican base just can't get to like, never mind love him

And so we have had a plethora of NOT-MITT-ROMNEY (NMR) candidates seeking to achieve a plurality of support from the remaining 75% of Republican primary voters. So long as that 75% of the vote is shared amongst a number of candidates, Mitt Romney can stay in the lead.  However if any one of the rest can become the Conservative standard bearer, it seems that Romney is doomed for all his money and establishment support. But what has been extraordinary is the poor quality of the alternative candidates, so much so that each has collapsed within weeks of having soared into the lead once they become subject to increased public scrutiny.

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