"All Quiet on the Western Front, or Political Weather Forecast for Ukraine and Belarus"

The euphoria is over. The Orange revolution in Ukraine flushed away some unpopular figures from the political scene, but was unable to deliver on expectations. Everyday life has not changed much for most of the people. The economy is still in a poor shape, and is suffering from structural issues, obsolete technology, low energy efficiency, etc, inherited from the Soviet era. In an attempt to boost its approval rate, the government raised minimum pensions and paid off deferred salaries. That move further strained the budget. As usual, the choices are limited: to raise taxes, increase national debt, or money supply. Most governments opt for the second solution. But how much more debt the market can absorb? In March 2006, the administration will face parliamentary elections, and may need another populist move in support of its program.