"The UN's future scenarios for climate are pure fantasy"

In the year 2000, the UN's International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published 40 different future scenarios in which emissions from oil, natural gas and coal were specified. In the past 9 years these scenarios have been the guiding star for the world's climate researchers. The IPCC has described why these researchers should follow them. The scenarios "are built as descriptions of possible, rather than preferred, developments. They represent pertinent, plausible, alternative futures". Despite the fact that emissions from fossil fuels vary widely between the scenarios, the IPCC regarded all the scenarios as equally likely.

Among these scenarios exist the future horror stories that people such as Al Gore has warned us about. These go by the name of "Business As Usual". Climate calculations that are based on these emission levels give an average temperature increase of 3.5 °C above 1990 levels by 2100. Some of these scenarios exceed +6 °C.

More follows below. The text is taken from his blog, so copyright even of the entire text is no problem.

One consequence of the financial crisis is that fund managers are increasingly going to come into conflict with governments. Actions taken in the best interest of fund managers' clients are likely to be considered against the national interest.

With the future of the UK nuclear weapons under discussion and the generally anti-Trident feelings at the European Tribune, I think the time has come to argue why Trident need be replaced, for while the current SSBN's force is all peachy, they must be replaced by the early 2020's, and these things have monstrous lead times. A decision to replace or not cannot be postponed indefinitely.

HMS Vanguard.

[Ed note: first posted Wednesday, 1 July]

Having taken a look at Wolfgang Münchau's latest scribblings, it really seems Europe is doomed. Some excerpts below.

Eurozone banking needs a co-ordinated strategy

Published: April 26

The most shocking news from last week's excellent Global Financial Stability Report from the International Monetary Fund was not the headline estimate of total bad assets. That number stands at $4,100bn (£2,800bn, €3,000bn) and will almost certainly be revised upwards. Much more shocking was that the lion's share of these assets belong to European, not North American, banks. Of the total $4,100bn, the global banking system accounts for $2,800bn. Of that, a little over half - $1,426bn - is sitting in European banks, while US banks account for only $1,050bn.

Even worse, European banks have written down much less than American ones. According to Reuters, the US and European banking and insurance sector has so far written down $740bn. More than 70 per cent of the write-downs come from the US. The eurozone's share has been an appalling 14 per cent.

[...]

I suspect that this ugly drama will play out the full five acts, in classic European style. And we are not even halfway through. Not even close.

Message: European banks are even more screwed than US banks.

Diary rescue by afew

One of Sweden's largest manufacturing sector unions said on Monday that its members are willing to allow employers to cut wages in order to avoid more layoffs.

The IF Metall union announced an agreement with the Association of Swedish Engineering Industries (Teknikföretagen) whereby workers could see their pay cut by up to 20 percent.

The exact wage reductions would be decided by companies and local union chapters, and would be combined with periods of furlough and additional training.

This is an astounding development, and contrary to all traditions of the Swedish industrial union movement. This should tell everyone how incredibly grave the situation is.

From the diaries. -- Jérôme. More below.

I certainly used too, but the more I learn about it the more I worry the theory might be completely wrong.

Bo Lundgren was the chairman of the Swedish market-liberal and conservative Moderate party in 1999-2003 and his politics where characterised by what can only be called an utter obsession to cut taxes. After getting historically bad election results he resigned and was made the head of the Swedish National Debt Office due to his competent handling of the bank crisis of 1992. He was succeeded as chairman of the Moderate party by the more centrist Fredrik Reinfeldt, current Prime minister of Sweden.

And here we have an interesting and very recent interview with the Bo Lundgren. Hopefully it will give something of a Swedish perspective on the current unfolding crisis.

On September 22 this fall, the European Parliament will vote on the legal position of the European Tribune and all other blogs. The resolution which will include measures to make legal action against blogs easier, regulate the content of blogs, and require licensing and registering to operate a blog is sponsored by Estonian Socialist MEP Marianne Mikko.

MEP Marianne Mikko.

The current US financial crisis is often compared to the Japanese one, but one might argue that a better comparison is the Swedish crisis of the early 90's, which by the way was the worst one we had since the depression which isn't little considering the constant crisis we had during the 70's.

It was so bad it probably crossed the line from recession and went into depression territory. For example, GDP fell by 6 %, housing prices fell by a quarter and several banks were nationalised.

Promoted by Colman, with a little reformatting.

I am sure you have all heard about the problems and delays at the construction site of Finlands fifth nuclear reactor, a 1600 MW EPR being built by Areva and Siemens which will increase the nuclear generation of Finland by 60 %.

What you probably haven't heard about is the other new reactors.

Diary rescue by Migeru

IHT/JOHANNESBURG: At first, the power blackouts seemed a mere nuisance, the electricity suddenly dead for two or three hours at a time, two or three times a day. Radio announcers jocularly advised listeners to make their morning toast by vigorously rubbing two pieces of bread together and wisecracked about amorous uses for the extra darkness.

But after three weeks of chronic power failures - after regularly irregular vexations with lifeless computers, stovetops and stoplights - public forbearance has given way to outrage. This nation, long a reliable repository of cheap, plentiful electricity, finds itself pitifully short of juice

A new generation of nuclear power stations will be encouraged to supply unlimited amounts of electricity to the national grid, The Times has learnt.

??!

There are few signs in the world economy that we are heading towards a depression. Weak economic development in the US, and partly in Europe, is being compensated for by a continued good rate of growth in the rest of the world. When the credit fear abates, and all the skeletons finally fall out of their closets, the sun will shine again.

With the credit crunch and almost $100 oil arriving pretty much the way Jerome predicted they would, the feelings of doom and gloom are spreading. Some people are even talking about the Depression. I'm not saying this won't happen (or that it will), but it never hurts to look at things from a different perspective.

(With graphs!)

Diary rescue by Migeru

The government has lent more than £20 billion, or $40 billion, over the past two months to secure deposits at Northern Rock, many of which are pension savings, and to end the first run on a bank in the country since 1866. But it is coming under increasing pressure to ease the burden on taxpayers, while avoiding job losses.

[...]

"It will be really tricky," said Patrick Dunleavy, a professor for government and public policy at London School of Economics. "On the one hand you don't want to spend billions and play into the hands of private capitalism. On the other hand, you don't want to be accused by the opposition of socialist actions if you nationalize it."

<head explodes>

Wind power never had it easy in Sweden. With surplus generating capacity in the 90's, a highly conservative mindset among power producers and industrial consumers and average power production costs heading for 1 cent per kWh, breaking into the market seemed impossible.

But then some things happened.

Kriegers flak offshore wind farm.

Following in the steps Lord Oxburgh of BP, Jim Buckee, the astrophysicist PhD and retired CEO of Talisman Energy has decided to share some of his feelings of our current energy situation, including the oil sands, Peak Oil, climate change, and his greatest regret.

Diary rescue by Migeru

At the recent Association for Peak Oil&Gas conference in Cork, Ireland, former US Secreterary of Energy, Secretary of Defense and Director of the CIA, James Schlesinger, told the audience that "We are all peakists now".

He also said that almost all oil company executives now privately believe that peak oil is coming.

And Swedish top students know less about it than chimpanzees do.

A positive US media report on France. How extraordinary!

CBS 60 Minutes reports on, well, you know what they report on.