One of many stories on the election outcome can be read in [Murdoch Alert] The Times.

A game is at play that reminds me of the [US] Pres. election in Florida circa 2000.

The Western Press has jumped the gun and repeatedly declared that the Pro-EU forces in Serbia have won a big victory over the "Nationalist" parties. This meme has been repeated hundreds of times in the Western Press, and occasionally you'll see an addendum to this claim which goes something like this: "The Pro-EU bloc will now form a government, unless they are stopped by the Nationalists who will attempt to steal the election results that express the will of the people."

Essentially, as the argument goes, the only way the Nationalists end up in power is if they commit fraud and steal the election. This is the frame being spread in the Western media.

Promoted, with slight edits, by Colman

Greek Cypriot parliament speaker Christofias, 61, secured 53.36 percent of the vote against 46.64 percent for conservative former foreign minister Ioannis Kasoulides in an election billed by the local media as one of the most crucial in the history of Cyprus.

Below the fold is my own personal reaction:

news.google.com

NOTE: scroll down to access this article on Stratfor. Can only be accessed from Google.

The key passage:

If the United States and some European powers can create an independent Kosovo without regard to Russian wishes, Putin's prestige in Russia and the psychological foundations of his grand strategy will suffer a huge blow. If Kosovo is granted independence outside the context of the United Nations, where Russia has veto power, he will be facing the same crisis Yeltsin did. If he repeats Yeltsin's capitulation, he will face substantial consequences. Putin and the Russians repeatedly have warned that they wouldn't accept independence for Kosovo, and that such an act would lead to an uncontrollable crisis. Thus far, the Western powers involved appear to have dismissed this. In our view, they shouldn't. It is not so much what Putin wants as the consequences for Putin if he does not act. He cannot afford to acquiesce. He will create a crisis.

The basic idea here is that the whole world is expecting the Russians to abandon the Serbs instantly, but no one is asking the question, what if they don't?

This is a story that is local to me in Buffalo, and to my work at the University of Buffalo as an academic and artist.

Last week, I went to a fundraiser for the defense of artist/academic Steve Kurtz, which was held in a church owned by the singer folk artist Ani DiFranco. At the fundraiser, we watched the film STRANGE CULTURE (starting Tilda Swinton) which is about the FBI's Kurtz case. (As an aside, Kurtz will be at the Oct 20 Festival Neurotica in Madrid to discuss his art, the movie and his case.)

[I've given some background on the Kurtz case in the extended copy below.]

After the movie, we listened to Kurtz and his lawyers discuss the case. It became apparent as we listened that the Feds are using this as a test case. They are trying to criminalize certain mundane cases of so-called "mail fraud" in order to vastly expand the powers of the Federal gov't. If Kurtz loses his case, then a new precedent will be set. In the US, if you incorrectly fill out your warranty card for your TV, for instance, that may land you in jail. Fill out a wrong date, be sent to the klink, etc.

Diary rescue — promoted by Migeru

The recent Greek deals with Russia have been interesting, especially the oil pipeline that bypasses the Caucasuses and Turkey. So far, only the American and UK intelligence community (fronting for oil interests) have raised a stink about it, but the two orthodox countries are now making more deals than they ever have before. We can't forget that the reason Truman sent all the millions to Greece in the first place was to keep the Soviets out of the Med, and thus, coupled with Albania's self-imposed isolation, the USSR never had an outlet there.

The fact that Greece is making these deals now shows just how comfortable it has become within the security and economic framework of the EU. IMO, this is a huge sign of progress, especially since almost no one seems to have noticed its taking place.

From the diaries - whataboutbob

Ministers voted to suspend eight of the 35 chapters or policy areas into which the talks are divided, covering trade and transport, and review Turkey's compliance annually until 2009. Other sectors of the negotiations will go ahead but not be concluded until Turkey complies with its obligations on Cyprus.

They also agreed in principle on steps to end the economic isolation of northern Cyprus, but that accord is to be confirmed in January, diplomats said.

This presents a mild surprise only in the sense that the Foreign Ministers unanimously agreed to the formula when it was widely expected that there would be disagreement, and that the Prime Minister's meeting on the 14th would have to wrangle with the Turkish accession.

Instead, the meeting is now free to consider other issues, such as Croatia's enlargement status, as well as Bulgaria and Romania.

More below...

From the diaries -- whataboutbob

http://news.independent.co.uk/europe/article1219477.ece

The proposal is for the UN to take over the port of Famagusta which will allow the export of Turkish Cypriot goods.

My initial response is that there's nothing wrong with religion per se, but instead it's our certitude in the knowledge produced by religion that is a problem. Thus, if religions and religious beliefs didn't exist, we would very likely have groups of people who gravitated toward "certified" knowledge regardless. I'm talking about dogmas of all kinds, ideologies, cold hard facts, man. I'm talking about politicians, gurus, hell even historians.

Apparently, Cyprus is very willing to give France a military berth on the island. From the French perspective, this will allow France to become a bigger player in the Middle East--if it so wishes (and of course we're not at all certain about the French will in the Middle East at this point). From the Cypriot perspective, this will mark the entry of the first non-Brit, Turk, Greek, military berth on the island in centuries.

The key question of course: how big will the air base be? How big a military force will be stationed there, and to what end?

This development may have the potential of making France a major player in the region, and of complicating Cyprus-Turkey relations by a huge factor. A permanent military berth there makes France an informal party to discussions about the Cyprus problem.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/05_15/b3928086_mz054.htm

Turkey has already answered the proposal (even though I couldn't find it being made officially, which tells me that the issue may have been discussed at recent meetings between the two heads of state, ironically just before the crash last week).

Here's the analysis from a Greek paper on the proposal and on Turkey's response:
 [www.ekathimerini.com]

This was posted earlier this week...but think it is significant news ~ whataboutbob

http://pjoris.blogspot.com/

Handke received the Heine Prize and has had it revoked for his views on Serbia. Perhaps the title of Handke's book was too provocative ("Justice for Serbia"), as well as his other provocations (appearance at Milosevic's gravesite) but the subtitle was actually much more descriptive of the book's content: A Journey to the River. The river in question is Drina, and Handke simply went to the river and interviewed Serbs and Bosnian Muslims who lived on either side. That, and he blasted the Western media for its distorted coverage of events. Perhaps that's what has made him so unpopular?

Regardless, there is a question of free speech here. It is perhaps proper that Handke's views are contested openly, but I find it a bit dishonest to tag the name Milosevic alongside his AND to have his prize taken away. Not that I put much stock in prizes, but if you award someone a prize for art, you shouldn't take it away for purely political reasons. This makes a mockery of politics and art.

Not much.

Yesterday's election didn't change things either. In fact, the numbers break down almost exactly as they did in 2004. sure, the most popular party on the island (AKEL-Communist) received the most votes. They were down 3% from the mid 30's in 2004. The parties on the right received the same amount as in 2004, and the governing middle of the road DIKO party received 17%, up from 14%. DIKO and AKEL have a coalition going which exists, obviously, at AKEL's behest. Because they have a common stance on the Annan Plan solution for Cyprus (they're against it), it stands to reason that DIKO's additional 3% came from AKEL's loss of 3%. Net effect? Nada.

From the front page - whataboutbob

http://edition.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/europe/05/23/greece.crash/

This event will catalyze very negative forces in both countries, and it will have the potential to derail support for Turkey's EU accession in Greece. It is mostly negative for the Greek side for two reasons. Turkey has been advocating "dialogue" over issues concerning control of Aegean islands. Greece has simply been advocating legal recourse (i.e. take your boundary disputes to a world court, EU court, etc.). Ever since the two countries almost went to war in 1996 over a small island, this has been the prevailing thinking on the issue. This crash MAY have thrust that thinking forward a bit.

In both countries, politicians will be forced to deal with Turkey's land claims on the Aegean.

I'm tempted to ask everyone if you feel that Noam Chomsky is a bloated, bombastic paranoid. Does he overstate the case? Or should we all be as cynical as he is?

(Naturally, I'm judging that this blog is nowhere near as cynical as Chomsky.)

From the front page ~ whataboutbob

The Washington Post reveals that the US is keeping a Gulag somewhere in Eastern Europe.

Not good for a Euro country

The Washington Post is not naming the country at Bush's behest. Nor should they. If WAPO revealed the country's name, they would risk their credibility and damage their reputation as an Establishment organ full of shills for the powers that be.

If I were to guess, the most likely countries would be Poland, Romania and Bulgaria, given the emphasis on Soviet-era prisons. Initially my mind went to Kosovo and Albania as remote places where such a secret may be kept hidden, but when I read of the emphasis on Soviet, well. I feel bad for the EU prospects of the Balkan countries if one of them is engaging in such behavior.

Consider this my request for occasional open threads on Eurotrib.

I was considering how to ask for this without starting a diary but I didn't want to pollute anyone's diary with this request.

I have been a one-trick pony of sorts on your blog with a special emphasis on Cyprus and Turkey. I have a few diaries which address both Katrina and European literature among other topics. Sometimes in perusing the Turkish and Cypriot online news sources I come across an article which I'd like to post here, but I think it's undeserving of a diary of its own. Is there a better place to link to interesting articles than a diary?

One such article can be found here: Fallout to Accession

There's a lot of bluster in the article, but if indeed this is a real danger in Turkey, I have two reactions. One, if it is entirely possible that such a dangerous authoritarian regime might take power, then Turkey is further away from integration than even I imagined. And two, maybe this warning or threat should be taken seriously since the last thing the EU needs is a belligerent neighbor. Or maybe it can all be ignored as ill-considered bluster?

Don't hold your breath

I was looking for an open thread to post this since I don't have extensive comments. However, a diary will do. At the UN meetings in NY, Annan, the Cyprus Pres and the Turkish PM have met a few times. From this article it is obvious that they are decades away from a solution. The two countries disagree on the most basic elements of a solution. Never mind the particulars such as property rights, freedom of movement and the occupation army, they disagree on the basic structure of a new country.

Even as someone who follows all news on the Cyprus problem, I was very perplexed by this. While the two sides were close to agreeing on the Annan Plan (5 different Annan plans set the structural parameters for union over the last 5 years) this talk by both sides seems to diverge from any semblance of agreement. Maybe this is talk for domestic consumption? But usually the opposite happens at the UN. International platitudes are spoken whether one believes them or not.

Promoted from the diaries (with small edit) ~ whataboutbob

Turkey rejects conditions

This is the latest on the talks this weekend over Turkish accession. Apparently, the Brits, Germans and French have agreed to a supplemental sheet nullifying Turkey's codicil which in effect nullifies the customs union with the entire EU. The new amendment states that Turkey must open its ports to Cyprus. Turkey's FM has already rejected the idea. Hence, they are at loggerheads. What isn't known presently is whether France will insist that the customs union be put into effect prior to the start of negotiations. Some believe the EU is still in disagreement over this. But all are agreed that the customs union will not go into effect for ALL EU countries until the ban on Cypriot ships is lifted.