Traditional electricity production is divided into at least two parts: plants operated at full power (baseload) and plants making up for the variable difference with demand (peaker plants or load-following plants). Load-following plants also balanced the shutdowns of baseload plants, and basically the same pracrtice is continued by balancing wind intermittency.

Where is nuclear energy in this picture? Nuclear power plants is normally operated as part of the baseload, thus, as competition for renwwables and in parallel with fossil fuel (gas, oil, coal) and renewable (hyro, pumped storage) peaker plants. From what I read, I assumed this has technical reasons, however, in a debate last month, Jerome a Paris told me that load-following operation of nuclear is not only possible but practised in France.

Now he alerted me to a German study focusing just on this subject: the possibility of nuclear energy contributing to the balancing of renewables with much higher grid penetration. I found a free abridged version on-line. A short review follows.

The future mix of power plants generating electricity is a very politicised issue in Germany. Specific generating modes had their best friends in different parties: the Social Democrats (SPD) for coal, some local branches of the SPD for gas, the conservative CDU/CSU for nuclear (and some local branches of the CDU also for coal), the Greens for wind and photovoltaics and combined generation.

Consequently, government changes had strong influence on energy policy. The SPD-Greens coalition under Chancellor Schröder made nuclear phaseout a law and allowed the expansion of gas-fired plants in unison, while the expansion of renewables and a slow phase-out of coal subsidies were born out of rather intense intra-coalition fights. In the following Grand Coalition (CDU/CSU+SPD), differences mostly served to maintain the status quo, only an SPD environment minister was now free to pursue a coal renaissance (hampered by realities and activists). Finally the black-yellow (CDU/CSU with the neolib FDP) coalition government empowered in last year's federal elections was widely expected to bring back nuclear and undermine renewables.

However, the new government hasn't been any less messier on energy policy than on taxes or Afghanistan. While the pro-nuclear promises were followed up by opening talks on extending power plant lifespans, the government felt forced to make those difficult with demands like companies paying for the clean-up of a nuclear dump and the premature closure of older plants. On the renewables front, plans of the (CDU-led) environment ministry to cut the feed-in rate for photovoltaics led to protests on Thursday, also supported by regional leaders from the CDU (who fear job loss).

Now federal environment minister Norbert Röttgen seems intent to counter-act the image damage with a U-turn. In an interview with Süddeutsche Zeitung, he opined that the CDU should give up on nuclear as the identification is hurting the party, and chart out its replacement with renewables instead: in effect, an accelerated nuclear phaseout. The initiative only created more turmoil, Röttgen was attacked left and right.

A lot of the development of German politics in the last five years was triggered by a small party: the new hard-left Left Party (or, translating its official name, "The Left[ists]"). Its influence is also recognised at EU level by giving the head of the hard-left GUE/NGL faction in the European Parliament.

By shifting the Overton Window, the Left Party caused a shift to the left in the policies and discourse of the major parties (Linksruck). By becoming a constant presence in the federal parliament and a majority of the 16 states, it caused the emergence of a five-party system (Fünfparteiensystem; with the others being the conservative CDU/CSU, the Social Democrats [SPD], the [neo]liberal FDP and the Greens). The new system brought forth previously untried coalition contellations, and also exposed the identity crisis and internal divisions of the centre-left SPD (see f.e. The Traitor).

The Left Party was born as the convenient but unlikely alliance of forces left of the SPD with very different roots: the East German PDS, which grew out of the reform wing of the former communist party (but also included less reformed nostalgics and some alternative-leftists), and the West German WASG, which mainly consisted of classic social democrats leaving the SPD in disgust with Schröderite Third Wayism (but also brought in former West German sectarian communists).

This unlikely alliance was the idea of the former enfant terrible of the SPD, Oskar Lafontaine ("Red Oskar"), but it took two years of hard negotiations from election alliance to actual party merger. As one safeguard of the balance between the double roots, the party was double-headed: Lafontaine was first paired with one 'star' of the PDS, Gregor Gysi. Presently, Red Oskar's pair is a man who looks like a classic East Block 'concrete-head', Lothar Bisky. The position of Lafontaine, Gysi and Bisky at the helm was unquestioned in the party, though this situation also threw up questions about the future after them.

Last year, Lafontaine withdrew from federal politics to concentrate on his home state Saarland, and to cure his cancer, and made his retirement total last week; while Bisky got a second and third job as MEP and leader of the GUE/NGL faction -- so the leadership change was necessary. Originally, the party statutes foresaw the double-headedness as transitory. However, when Gysi turned down requests, apparently no single candidate had wide enough support, and the idea to extend the double-head configuration solidified. With the candidates that emerged, the Left Party also executes a long overdue generation change.

A year ago, in the provocatively titled Where Zero Tolerance works, I wrote about the relationship of road traffic deaths and road safety policies, in connection with the apparent success of new stricter rules against speeding and drunken driving introduced in Hungary.

With another year having passed, police celebrated continued success:

This further reduction by 169 deaths must be compared with the government's goal of 300, however.

In the next 2-3 years, in Europe, there won't be many high-speed line openings to report on.

The Madrid-Valencia/-Albacete high-speed line, which will be one of just two put in service next year in Europe, has to cross the coastal mountains towards the Mediterranean. The 830 m long, 80 m high Viaduct of Istmo spans a bay of the Contreras Reservoir, parallel to a highway.

A year ago the structure stood finished (photo above from the line's site). More recently, a class 355 diesel test train of infrastructure authority ADIF (rebuilt from one half of the Talgo XXI prototype roll-through gauge-changing train, used for first tests up to 220 km/h) kicks up dust on the new track about a month ago (photo below from ADIF).

However, a lot of lines are in construction, so there will be another phase of major expansion in a few years. Time for an overview.

The theme of the last diary on lines opened in 2009, delays for unfortunate to absolutely stupid reasons, will play prominent for many of the ongoing projects.

What will appear only in traces is the emergence of a genuine EU-wide high-speed network: even with the inclusion of projects in design or advanced study stage, what we will have in 2020 is still just the four major networks of national character and a couple of isolated lines, connected by conventional lines.

Bumped

It's a week late, but I say farewell to autumn with some photos of autumn foliage I made this year.

The Kalvária of Banská Štiavnica (Hungarian: Selmecbánya, German: Schemnitz) illuminated by the last rays of the Sun. Spot the cows and their watcher.

I have a special knack for murder cases showing the falliblity of justice even in apparently clear-cut cases. (After all, this fallibility is one of the two main arguments against a decision with such finality as the death penalty.)

There is now the curious case of Rudolf Rupp, an old peasant who disappeared in 2001. His wife, two then teenage daughters and the fiancée of the older were sentenced to long prison terms, after they confessed to have killed and dismembered him, and fed the pieces to the dogs, to get his money. However, Rudolf Rupp's corpse was found this March -- whole, in his car, at the bottom of the Danube.

Sajóbábony is a town of 3,000 in Hungary's impoverished Northeast. Over the weekend, far-right party Jobbik (currently polling double-digits) held a gathering there -- which resulted in a major upheaval.

Participants' reports differ wildly on what happened next, but there was a confrontation between much of the city's 800 Roma on one side, and hundreds of Jobbik supporters on the other side, many of the latter in the uniform of the banned Hungarian Guard paramilitary. After some scuffles and a smashed car window, a large police force separated the sides; but a number of Gypsies kept watch at campfires and a hundred Jobbik/Hungarian Guard kept waiting just outside the town limits until Sunday evening.

According to the on-ground investigation by the reporters of e-zine Index.hu, this big row looks like a planned provocation, ahead of the visit of Jobbik's boss in town today. The provocation seems a successful one.

Promoted by afew

Originally published on October 29

FTD, the German edition of the Financial Times, has a new article on the run for President of the European Council. The Anglo-French pro-Blair front gets a rather pointed characterisation...

Am Mittwochabend sprach Frankreichs Präsident Nicolas Sarkozy beim feinen Diner im Pariser Élysée-Palast mit der gerade wiedergewählten Kanzlerin über ihre Absichten. Am Donnerstag muss sich Merkel auf bohrende Fragen ihrer Amtskollegen einstellen wie: "Angela, wen unterstützt du?" Britische und französische Diplomaten wollen bei der Kanzlerin jüngst wachsende Sympathie für Blair ausgemacht haben. Vertreter kleinerer Staaten sind dagegen sicher, die Deutsche stütze entweder Österreichs Ex-Kanzler Wolfgang Schüssel oder den niederländischen Premier Jan-Peter Balkenende. Die Bedrängte selbst schweigt zu all dem eisern.		On Wednesday evening, France's President Nicolas Sarkozyspoke about their intentions with the newly reelected Chancellor at a fine dinner at the Élysée palece in Paris. On Thursday, Merkel has to prepare herself for probing questions of her counterparts like: "Angela, whom do you support?" British and Frnech diplomats want to have identified the Chancellor's growing sympathy for Blair recently. In contrast, representatives of smaller countries are certain that the German supports either the former Chancellor of Austria, Wolfgang Schüssel, or the Dutch PM Jan-Peter Balkenende. The hard-pressed herself is adamantly silent about all this.
Hinter der Personalentscheidung stehen zwei grundverschiedene Visionen des Postens und Europas. Großbritannien und Frankreich sehen in dem Ratspräsidenten ein Heilmittel gegen ihre Phantomschmerzen als ehemalige Großmächte. Nur ein Politsuperstar aus einem mächtigen Mitgliedsstaat werde als Europas Vertreter weltweit ernst genommen, lauten in London und Paris die Argumente zugunsten Blairs. Der charismatische Labour-Politiker sei jemand, "für den in Washington oder Peking der Verkehr angehalten werden würde", sagt der britische Außenminister David Miliband. Blairs Büchsenspanner warnen, für Zwergstaatenvertreter wie Juncker würden die Präsidenten Indiens oder Chinas "möglicherweise schlicht keine Zeit haben".		Behind the personnel decision, there are two fundamentally different visions of the post and Europe. Great Britain and France see the Council President as a cure for their phantom limb pains as former great powers. Only a political superstar from a powerful member state will be taken seriously around the world as Europe's representative, is the argument for Blair in London and Paris. The charismatic Labour politician is someone for whom "the traffic will be stopped in Washington or Beijing", says British foreign minister David Miliband. Blair's gun loaders warn that the Presidents of India or China "would probably just not have time for" dwarf state representatives like Juncker.

Ouch.

On the occasion of this coming Thursday's summit to appoint the new Council President - diary rescue by Migeru

Ireland said Yes to the Lisbon Treaty in a referendum, Czech President Václav Klaus gave up on his obstruction and signed it this week, and British opposition leader David Cameron no longer wants the referendum desired by his Eurosceptic constituency. However, French President Nicolas Sarkozy found a new threat to the EU: the Visegrád group... (hat tip to In Wales):

EUobserver / Sarkozy warns Visegrad countries not to make a habit of pre-summit meetings

French President Nicolas Sarkozy has taken a swipe at Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, who last week met ahead of the EU summit to talk through their positions on the topic of the day.

Speaking after a meeting of EU leaders last week, Mr Sarkozy said "if they have to meet regularly before each council, that could raise questions."

That's rather strange to hear from one half of the 'Franco-German engine', who had (another) pre-summit meeting with Merkel last Wednesday; especially when directed against something as lightweight as the Visegrád group.

In the Salon, Migeru posted excerpts of an article about the announcement of a new high-speed line in Spain:

El AVE unirá en cuatro horas el Cantábrico y el Mediterráneo · ELPAÍS.com		Spain's High Speed [AVE] trains will link the Bay of Biscay and the Mediterranean in less than four hours - ElPais.com
El Ministerio de Fomento tendrá en marcha a finales de este año todas las actuaciones y obras para articular el nuevo corredor ferroviario transversal que permitirá conectar por línea AVE de uso mixto (para pasajeros y mercancías) el Cantábrico y el Mediterráneo en un tiempo de viaje de unas cuatro horas, frente a las nueve que es preciso invertir actualmente. El corredor discurrirá a través de Teruel, Zaragoza y el eje del Ebro, y contará con dos conexiones con el País Vasco, una por Logroño y otra por Pamplona. También enlazará con Santander por Bilbao, según el estudio funcional del proyecto presentado hoy en Zaragoza por el ministro de Fomento, José Blanco.		By the end of the year, [Spain's] Ministry of Public Works will have started  all the actions and works necessary to create the new transverse [to the radial lines emanating from Madrid, that is - Migeru] railway corridor, which will allow a connection between the Bay of Biscay and the Mediterranean over a mixed-use (passenger and freight) high-speed line, taking 4 hours instead of the 9 it takes currently. The corridor is via Teruel, Zaragoza and the Ebro river axis, and will include two connections with the Basque Country, one via Logroño and one via Pamplona. It will also link Santander via Bilbao, according to a functional study of the project presented today in Zaragoza by the Minister José Blanco.

The imminent start of projecting and/or construction can only be welcomed. However, the project is, or more precisely, the projects are neither truly new, nor all that ambitious. The announcement is a nice example of how political spin is used in presenting transport infrastructure projects.

It came up in a recent discussion that the geographic origin of a food is not necessarily indicated by its name. The most well known in English is, of course, French aka Freedom Fries -- in reality fried frenched potato, invented in Belgium.

Photo by user telephaticgeorge from Flickr.

How many of these misnomers are you aware of? Be them misnomers used in your neighbourhood, or food named for your country/region/city elsewhere in the world? I believe to know quite a number -- used in Budapest's restaurants and cafés.

The Global Financial Crisis had different local reasons. In the USA, it was a housing bubble built on loose lending rules and credit derivatives. In Western Europe, it was investing on the US financial market. And in the new members of the EU, it was the 'carry trade' of credits (in particular for housing) denominated in foreign currencies.

The reason for the rise of forex credits was simple: interest rates in the stable Swiss, Eurozone or Japanese economy were lower than in the formerly 'communist' region -- and, with the accession to the EU, internal market rules on free movement of capital meant that the difference couldn't be compensated directly with transaction surcharges.

How forex-denominated credits can lead to a crisis? Via exchange rate changes: the unchanged interest due in Swiss francs or Euros or Yen will suddenly be much more in Forints, Złotys and Litas -- which can lead to defaults, which can lead to further devaluation. This risk first blew open a year ago in Hungary, when the local currency Forint suddenly fell by 20%.

The problem wasn't attacked any better than other local causes of the GFC: the IMF and the ECB drowned it in extra liquidity, while governments tried to limit exploding budget deficits with Hooverite austerity measures, but the underlying causes weren't dealt with. Now however, when the improving situation is again making the forex credits more attractive, some central banks are trying to curb them.

Four weeks before the German federal elections, on 30 August, three much-noted regional elections were held. In two of the three, there were long coalition-forming negotiations between the three left-of-center parties -- but, in both cases, one partner shockingly switched to a coalition with the losers of the election, the conservative CDU, which previously governed both states with absolute majority.

I covered Thuringia in Why Social Democrats are just unfit for power, now some words about Saarland.

Saarland is the smallest non-city state, a coal-and-steel region at the border with France and Luxembourg. It used to be strongly SPD, until the local leader, Oskar Lafontaine, got in conflict with then chancellor Schröder over the latter's Third Wayism. Lafontaine was later instrumental in the formation of the Left Party (as a union of East German post-communists, West German anti-Harz-IV ex-SocDems, and assorted other hard-leftists) and became its leader. And he was also instrumental in getting more than 20% for the Left Party in the 30 August elections.

Unlike in Thuringia, the local SPD had no scruples seeking a coalition with their left flank. However, it wasn't them who had the options: it was the party coming in last, the Greens, who were free to give either SPD+Left Party or CDU+FDP the majority. And this past weekend, they decided for the latter. With that, a heretofore theoretical possibility in Germany's current five-party system, the 'Jamaica Coalition', is to have its premiere.

promoted by nanne

In Germany, the big loss of the Social Democrats (SPD) in the federal elections last month heralded the end of the centrist, third-wayist, Schröderite leadership. Or did it?

Four weeks earlier, there have been regional elections in three German states. In Thuringia state, the conservative CDU lost its absolute majority, opening the way for a tripartite left-wing coalition. Such a change would have been good for the federal SPD, because the second house of the German federal parliament, the Bundesrat, is composed of representatives of the 16 state governments. However, it didn't came to be.

The talks centered on the question of who shall be prime minister: the SPD insisted on giving the PM, even though it came third behind the CDU and the prospective main coalition partner, the Left Party. There seemed to be progress when first Thuringia's Left Party leader Bodo Ramelow, then his SPD counterpart Christoph Matschie gave up their personal power aspirations. However, last week, Matschie and the regional SPD leadership made a shocking declaration: the SPD was to start coalition talks with the CDU. Confronting an outraged party base, Matschie blamed the failure of negotiations on the Left Party's and Ramelow's rejection of an SPD PM.

However, now Ramelow had his revenge -- and exposed yet another display of incomprehensibly stupid centrist Social Democrat maneuvering.

promoted by nanne

As most readers of ET may be aware, nuclear power is a hot-button issue in Germany. And perhaps the most contentious sub-issue is that of nuclear waste final storage.

Germany has two designated final storage sites: the Asse-II shaft, notionally a research site and in practice a dump for nuclear waste with light and medium radioactivity, and Gorleben, also officially still in the exploration stage, but in practice holding nuclear waste of high radioactivity.

The focus of the debate is on the choice of the sites. While the nuclear industry (and their political backers in the CDU and CSU) insisted that the sites are geologically stable (watertight) and have been chosen as the best site after careful consideration, the critics alleged the opposite on both counts.

Over the summer, both sites have been subject to scandals that appear to confirm precisely what the critics said: there is a permanent groundwater leak in mis-managed Asse, and an eighties document turned up confirming political pressure on scientists to give the nod to Gorleben.

Along with a few other negative news, these two scandals put the nuclear issue back into daily politics, and brought some fire into the otherwise very lacklustre campaign for tomorrow's Federal Elections in Germany (link to nanne's diary).

originally published on 26 August 2009

In Hate crime: cell phones and arrests, I reported the arrest of four men for a series of nine terror attacks against Roma, in four of which six people died.

Here I bring some updates, focusing on a single case: one which police thought they solved long ago... but which they now identified as the fourth attack of the terrorists.

In the night to 29 September 2008, shots were fired and Molotov cocktails were thrown at four homes on the edge of the village of Tarnabod. Fortunately, no one was hurt. However,

• the attackers erred: the inhabitants were poor but they weren't Gypsies;
  
• police erred, too: they arrested three local Roma youths, and held them on remand for 11 months -- and released them only now.

Diary rescue by Migeru

"On 27 August at midnight, look up on the sky. Mars will be closer than anytime in your lifetime: just 34.65 million miles away. It won't be this close again until 2287!

With the naked eye, Mars will be just as big as the Moon in the sky!!

It will cause massive tidal surges and earthquakes!!!"

Have you received an email virus/hoax/chain-mail to that tune (usually in a ppt attachment) sometime over... the past six years?

For the last four years, come every August, there is always some colleague, friend or relative who received this and asked me about it... with this longevity, and the many language versions, the Mars Hoax really turned into a classic, alongside the Nigerian Scam.

(Below the fold, a standard deconstruction if it is needed.)

Earlier this month, I diaried the murder of a woman in a village that was the latest in a series of deadly attacks against Roma, happening over the last ten months and spread out all across Hungary.

In the early hours last Friday, police finally detained six people, putting four of them under arrest (as reported in the Salon). What is interesting beyond the fact is the Big Brother-ish method used to find them: analysing cell phone calls. Using a software borrowed from the FBI, police looked for cell phones used at the time and place of multiple attacks -- and there was such a cell phone in the last murder and another.

On Friday, I made a trip on the Szob-Márianosztra narrow-gauge railway, in Northern Hungary, a line recently rebuilt with EU funds.

The train at intermediate "watering stop" Máriakút (Mary spring), where all passengers were invited to refill their bottles from the eponymous spring. The EU funding was indicated proudly.