Let me introduce you to the latest episode of the longest-running soap opera in Hungarian politics.

The main character of the series: Tamás Deutsch, member of the inner cabal of the main opposition party Fidesz.

Co-star of the latest episode: Lajos Für, onetime defense minister in the first freely elected government.

Episode teaser: what to do when you're Jewish and your father-in-law joined a far-right paramilitary?

Disregard of.

This diary isn't even intended as funny. It is about deadly accidents.

On my railway, in recent years, there has been an upswing in accidents involving young people that resulted from the utter disregard of basic safety rules. While even with the upswing, we are speaking of the behaviour of a microscopic subset of the total youth population, thus the outer end of a spectrum, there is still some underlying development here.

My grumpy old man rumblings are bound to turn into a series...

When I was a kid in the eighties, one could get a clue of the impending death of "real existing socialism" - from how it already lost the propaganda war in inspiring the dreams of the younger generation. Especially as it was the kids of the then upper-middle-class, e.g. Party members, who had most of the Western consumer culture importware.

While I was still enthralled by the model trains of East German maker Piko (still extant), what all the kinds dreamt of was stuff like the construction sets of Danish toy-making giant Lego, the model cars of British maker Matchbox - and the contents of Kinder-eggs (coming from Italy despite the German name).

A quick diary on the further development of a story briefly discussed in the 11 April Salon.

On 10 April, the parliament of Slovakia voted to ratify the Lisbon Treaty, defeating a boycott by the right-wing and liberal opposition. The latter had nothing to do with Europe, the opposition being more Europhile than the government: the opposition wanted to use the occasion to protest a grossly restrictive new media law.

The opposition party breaking lines was the ethnic Hungarian minority party SMK/MKP. In the weeks since, claims of backroom deals caused turmoil.

After the success of the referendum to abolish the 'reforms' that made healthcare and higher education not free of charge, the governing Socialist-Free Democrat coalition was in turmoil.

Yesterday, this peaked in the break-up of the coalition: after PM Ferenc Gyurcsány declared that he fires their healthcare minister with effect from 30 April, the liberals declared Gyurcsány abandoned the reforms, and that the rest of their ministers will step down on the same date, too.

In practice, this won't mean much: the liberals declared they don't want Orbán (former PM and leader of the right-populist opposition party Fidesz) back, and they surely don't want new elections with their sub-5% poll numbers, so I guess we'll have a Socialist minority government with outside support.

Time for an update to Oil prices in Euros from last October. The accompanying text was edited for a less European audience for an upcoming re-post at The Oil Drum. Update [2008-3-19 15:46:31 by DoDo]: Now with another week of data, more consequent colours and added logarithmic graphs.

In the past half-year, we often saw simultaneous crude oil and Euro/dollar rallies. The question emerges, how would oil prices look in Euros?

(Click to enlarge)

Below the fold, I'll explain what data is displayed on the diagram, and show a few more diagrams.

Promoted by Migeru

Ever since the German economic recovery started three years ago, there is confusion about how to spin it. Some paint it as Merkel's success, some credit the Grand Coalition. The SPD's reform wing points out that the recovery started before the elections, and credit Schröder's reforms (Agenda 2010, of which the most (in)famous element was the Harz IV labour reform). Those more committed to the Church of the Economic Faith than parties have been seeing signs that that growth will soon fizzle out, for lack of further reforms...

Meanwhile in the real world, certain disparities get noticed. Namely, that this recovery resembles that in Dubya's USA: growth for the well-off, more (crap) jobs but less income for the rest. A just released study says real income fell by 3.5%.

How a successful economy looks like, European edition.

This Sunday, I can vote in a referendum on some 'reforms', ones concerning healthcare. But colour me unenthusiastic: I wonder if the vote will really decide the future of 'reforms', or only who'll govern next.

Though since I began to draft this diary, I do tend in one direction, I felt inspired by redstar: after some intro on the campaign, the politics and polls; I will present you with the referendum questions, and ask you to tell me what to do and why.

Update [2008-3-10 3:59:33 by DoDo]: Bumped for the coverage of the actual referendum. Live blogging in the comments. Below the preliminary final result:

Turnout: 50.49% (highest in a referendum since 1989)

Yes vote ( = rejection of 'reforms') as percentage of valid votes, and as percentage of eligible voters:

• Hospital bed charge: 84.08% (42.10%)
• Doctor visitation charge: 82.42% (41.30%)
• University tuition fees: 82.22% (41.15%)

As told in the comments, the PM announced a quick return to the status quo ante (not only from next year as in the referendum question), without earmarking extra funds for healthcare from somewhere else (the voter be punished for its foolish decision). Later he also had the gall to interpret absentions as silent support (also kicking those of his voters who are against 'reforms' but didn't want to reward the Right). Such spin may have worked for Bliar in Britain, but it looks suicidal here.

The referendum-initiating right-populists suggested to spend lottery tax income on healthcare... Meanwhile on the streets, riots were averted for now after one of the far-right leaders told the crowd that "we should wait a few days".

Responding to an (email) request by the stormy present, and following up a request by metavision (even if she withdrew it, because I thought it's a good idea), and not forgetting earlier meta discussions, I created a Frontpager Duties page:

On community blogs, "frontpagers" are super-users who can edit the front page, manage the site appearance, and user accounts. For the sake of transparency, here is a collection of loose guidelines followed by European Tribune's frontpagers (whose actualised list you'll find on the front page: in the right-hand column, in the bottom box titled "Blogroll").

This is now the buzzword all across the German media. After the Left Party success in all of the last three regional elections, the beginning of a new era is finally dawning on everyone, with the need to create new types of coalitions.

In the prior four-party system, the basic options were:

• right-wing camp: Christian Democrats (CDU) (+ liberal Free Democrats (FDP))
  
• left-wing camp: Social Democrats (SPD) (+ Greens)
  
• Grand Coalition (CDU+SPD)

First in 2001 in Berlin, then after the 2005 federal elections, new options were in discussion, and now seriously at the table in Hessen and Hamburg:

• Black-Green: CDU+Greens
• Jamaica: CDU+FDP+Greens
• Traffic lights: SPD+FDP+Greens
• Red-Red-Green: SPD+Left Party+Greens

Though such complexities aren't exactly new to Scandinavian democracies and the Netherlands, with Germany's influence, the ideological frames of reference may change all across Europe.

A candidate diary!!!

Ever since Sarkozy pushed Blair as candidate for President of the European Council, and ever since much of the media began to treat what is de-facto like a president of a senate post as if it were the President of Europe, much speculation centres on the question of whom German Chancellor Angela Merkel would approve or endorse.

Being both politically savvy and cautious from largest EU member state position, Merkel of course won't say anything explicitely. But just yesterday [Tuesday, 19 February], she held a laudation for Luxembourg PM Jean-Claude Juncker at an award ceremony, that has every appearance of a strong indirect endorsement.

You read it here first. I haven't yet found an analysis in the MSM. Update [2008-2-21 8:25:1 by DoDo]: But now it is mentioned, see comments.

Europe's longest single high-speed line was finished at last: with the final 87 km ready, AVE trains connect Barcelona and Madrid from today (20 February 2008).

An AVE S-103 on a final trial run on the new section at Castellbisbal, West of Barcelona, 17 February 2008. The S-103 entered regular service only 22 June last year, but does all the long-distance services covering the full line since 26 November. The 350 km/h rating of the S-103, of the Siemens type Velaro-E, is currently the highest in the world -- as is its 403.7 km/h speed record (set during tests on 16 July 2006) for unmodified series trains. Photo by Natan Rubio Gallardo from Railwaymania.

This diary is also a supplement to European HSR expansion in 2007, so I also cover the presentation of the TGV's successor at the end.

With the entry of the Left Party into two more West German regional parliaments last month, the transformation of the German party landscape into a five-party system seems final.

However, any (locally) new party, having untested and unknown members, is exposed to the danger of some ticking bombs exploding and causing scandals. By now, all three Left Party factions in West German regional parliaments had high-profile cases; the latest in Lower Saxony. Though the party leadership is dealing with them, these actions may have been timely much earlier.

I'm stealing PeWi's series for an issue. I passed by the in-construction Colbert Bridge again:

This afternoon, I was at a counter-protest on the sidelines of a skinhead rally.

Two Hungarian skins with Árpád-stripes armbands stand at the back of the rally; 88: alphabetic code for the initials of the Nazi greeting. Photo from HVG.hu

On 11 Fenruary 1945, at the end of the Siege of Budapest, the SS and Hungarian vassal troops attempted a break-out. A few years ago, the local branch of a worldwide skinhead group named for values it is the opposite of, Blood and Honour, got permission for a rally to 'honour the fallen heroes'.

Ever since, each year the skins look for ways to hold this rally, while authorities react lamely and as if this wasn't to be expected. While Blood and Honour has been banned since, its onetime leader declared this year's event as private person. The skins expected 1,000 participants, from across the world, but I estimated them at a few hundred (with a few hundred more symphatizers among the on-lookers).

The organisers of one counter-protest had the idea to stand with hands on heads as the victims of Nazism. Later, they were replaced by anarchist counter-protesters.

No, I am not visible here. Photo from from Index.hu

History of the genesis and development of our petition against the nomination of Tony Blair for President of the European Council:

• Updated: Petition against a Tony Blair presidency of the European Union by Melanchthon
  
• Phase 2: Petition against a Tony Blair presidency by Melanchthon
  
• Our Jerome Goes Anti-Blair in the FT! by LondonYank
  
• Stop Blair! by afew
  
• The first 1597 names: by edwin

15 of the EU's 23 official languages are ready (see links below the ET logo). Tomorrow, we will also have Loefing's Stop Blair logo up. We still need translations into these eight official languages of the EU:

• Bulgarian,
  
• Estonian,
  
• Latvian,
  
• Maltese,
  
• Slovenian,
  
• Finnish,
  
• Czech,
  
• Irish.

Any others welcome.

When I started train blogging on ET, my goal was two-fold: naked rail advocacy, and to show a general public that trains can be as interesting as cars or planes or other objects of fandom.

In this diary however, I write about a rather obscure and specialised (or should I say nutty) hobby, one practised by some of the more hardcore rail photography fans: identifying the location of train photos.

Two-fifths of the train that set a new rail world speed record last April (574.8 km/h), at a strange location... Photo by Jean-Marc Frybourg @ RailPictures.Net

At the end of this diary, some riddles for the enterprising among you, or just random nice pictures for the rest.

Promoted with some extras in the comments

In Part 1 of this series, I looked at one set of data on the energy use and CO2 emissions of operating trains and rival transport modes, valid for Germany.

We saw that rail looks relatively good, what's more, unlike for other transport modes, there is significant potential for reduction from shifting electricity production to non-fossil fuels, especially in terms of CO2 emissions.

However, transport-related energy use and CO2 emissions don't only come from operation. There is, for one, the constuction of the vehicles themselves. More importantly, there is the construction of infrastructure.

Rail is undoubtedly an infrastrucure-heavy transport mode, high-speed rail especially so. In this part, I will present a back-of-the-envelope calculation on the four main energy-consuming and CO2-emitting 'ingredients' of high-speed lines: steel, concrete, trucking of materials, and tunnel boring. My aim throughout is to give a high estimate, not a worst-case scenario, but more the higher end of what could be seen as 'typical'.

The energy consumption and CO2 emissions of railways, in particular high-speed, and especially in comparison to other transport modes, came up on ET repeatedly. I promised a long time ago to collect together some data, on which I now shall deliver.

I will post in two parts. This first one is about consumption and emissions from operating railways (and rival transport modes), the next (in a few days) will attempt to also deal with construction.

This post will largely take the form of a data dump, data to be used for reference, interlaced with some notes on interpreting the data.

This is also an open project: if you have links to or data from other studies, post them.

Gauge-changing semi-high-speed train 130 003 at Madrid Chamartín, start of a new line in service since 23 December. (In the background: a class 252 "Eurosprinter" loco.) Photo by Mariano Alvaro from Flickr.com

2007 saw the opening of several high-speed lines in Europe, and it could have seen even more save for delays. This is my overdue intro and review of them.