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Eliminate US CAFE standards - solve the gas crisis

by rdf Sun Nov 20th, 2005 at 03:45:39 PM EST

This is more a US issue, but the comments on this forum tend to be more thoughtful than on some other sites, so I thought I would float a trial balloon for this idea here. Critiques or refinements of my arguments are welcome.

Libertarians promote the idea that the "marketplace" will solve all problems so one of their pet ideas is to eliminate the CAFE (automotive fuel requirements) standards. Then the the cost of fuel will cause more efficient vehicles to be selected by consumers and the problems of fuel scarcity will solve themselves.

I offer an alternative approach which incorporates mileage goals and discuss some of the fallacies with their position below.


First lets dismiss the basic tenet of Libertarianism up front. The market needs rules and those who supply the rules are the government. They do this because the people have delegated this task to the government. As in all human activity there are rules: sports, religion, marriage and even the Libertarian's sacred "private property". There is no reason why rules should not apply to business behavior as well. How is private property to be defined or protected without recourse to rules as promulgated by government and enforced by the police.

Next lets look at the implementation of CAFE standards. In response to pressure by the auto industry the imposition of mileage standards was gutted when it was first established. By allowing the fuel efficiency of the vehicles to be averaged over all sales the auto makers could avoid having to develop and market a complete line of high mileage vehicles. They could continue to market gas guzzlers as long as a certain percentage of people bought smaller cars. In addition they managed to get the rules for "light trucks" set so that many of the vehicles being sold to individuals were segregated into another category. So the argument that CAFE is not working properly is correct, it was never designed to. It is just that the chickens have come home to roost sooner than people expected. Oops!

My proposals:

  1. Set new standards for all "passenger vehicles" to a level that the best performing cars now reach. Let's say for the sake of argument 35MPG. The definition of passenger vehicle is any vehicle which is designed primarily to transport people and has a modest capacity for carrying materials. This includes regular sedans, vans and mini-vans, station wagons, etc. As long as it has two seats or more and you see it in the Mall parking lot it is a passenger vehicle. This means a Hummer, for example, is a passenger vehicle as is any SUV.

  2. Set new standards for "light trucks" to a reasonable level which reflect their greater weight. Say 25MPG when empty. (I leave the feasibility numbers to the automotive experts). A light truck is something which has a carrying capacity of under a certain weight and/or a certain volume. This means pickups and larger vans without rear seats, etc.

  3. The third category would be on road commercial vehicles such as delivery trucks like those used by UPS or Fed Ex, and larger semis. The fuel issues for these would need to be set based upon many criteria including size and type of usage. This sector does not account for the bulk of fuel consumed and companies already have an incentive to buy efficient vehicles so this is a less important issue.

  4. For all category one vehicles there would be a purchase tax which would be computed on the basis of the difference between the rated mileage and the standard. So an SUV with 20MPG performance would pay a tax at the 15MPG under rate, while a Hummer with 10MPG would pay at the 25MPG rate. This tax would be calculated to be based upon the extra use of fuel over the average life the vehicle. The proceeds from this tax would be allocated to a fund used for research and development into alternative sources of energy and/or transportation. It would be expected that a vehicle like a Hummer might pay as much as $10,000-20,000 in tax. This is similar to the "gas guzzler" tax that was levied previously, but would apply to many more automobiles. The "free market" gets to operate. Those who want to drive less efficient cars just have to pay for the damage they are doing to the planet. And thus, the forces of the market will prevail.

  5. Only those who are "in business" would be able to buy a light truck. To be in business you would have to show proof. This means that single owner business operating out of their truck would qualify as well as companies owning fleets. For those not "in business" there would be an "unqualified use" purchase tax. So if you want to drive around in a pickup truck in suburbia because you think it is cool, or you think you might need to buy a sheet of plywood some day, you are free to do so, but you have to pay for the damage you are doing to the planet. Once again the tax amount would be proportional to the difference between the MPG of the truck and the passenger vehicle standard, not the truck standard. This is because the buyer is making a choice to substitute a light truck for a passenger usage. In addition there would be a tax imposed to qualified buyers depending upon the difference between the performance of the truck and the truck standard. It is possible there might need to be several standards for different truck types, but this is a detail.

This plan meets several objectives. It does not force anyone, the manufacturers or the consumers to buy a specific type of vehicle. It makes the libertarians happy because the "marketplace" will determine the balance of vehicles sold. It allows for individual choice. It raises money for future research and development. It (eventually) lowers the total consumption of fuel. It can be implemented immediately without waiting for any technological breakthroughs. It puts the burden of excessive consumption on the individual, not spread on all of society. As the vehicle fleet becomes more efficient demand will drop and prices will either drop or rise more slowly. Thus, those who chose now to buy more efficiently will not have to pay a penalty in fuel prices caused by those who use more than the target.

Who will object?

Those who want to buy a big vehicle, but don't want to bear the true costs. For 50 years families got to the little league in a passenger vehicle, buying an SUV or a van is a choice, not a necessity. Just like buying a pickup truck so you have enough horsepower to haul your boat occasionally.

Automakers who will see a shift to more efficient (and presumably smaller and cheaper) vehicles. The biggest profit margins are in the biggest vehicles. That's why GM and Ford make SUV's in the face of all logic. They want to maximize their profit. This is a mistake, there are lots of other ways to improve profit per vehicle, for example, entertainment system, navigation systems, luxury fittings, etc. Lots of other industries have figured this out. That's why we have $1000 lady's purses and $10/foot electrical wire for hooking up loudspeakers. Quality, features and brand can be as lucrative as size when done correctly.

Small business owners whose capital costs will increase when buying trucks. This sector has the least valid reason to complain. If the light truck categories are set up properly there will be some tax free choices for all usages. Any taxes to be paid will just be part of doing business and can be built into the pricing structure of the business. So it is recoverable to the extent that any other cost is.

Do I expect this to happen? Probably not, but I haven't seen any better ideas being floated around. Raising CAFE standards has been a non-starter for years, the automobile industry has too much power to allow it to pass. In addition the short-sighted plans of the big three mean that they are already technologically behind the imports on efficiency, so mandating a level that they cannot reach will never work. A tax, on the other hand, especially to the consumer, does not put them at a technological disadvantage. If the public wants to continue buying domestic SUV's instead of imported hybrids nothing needs to change in their business plans. Even the oil companies should not be against the plan, they are way past the era where they needed to encourage consumption. They now have trouble meeting demand, so keeping demand reasonable while prices rise will allow them to make controlled investments in new energy sources while reaping the benefits of the increased profitability caused by high prices. By the time demand starts to moderate they may have adapted their businesses to a new model as well.

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I think this is a decent proposal.

FWIW, I think the "framing" against this proposal will focus on the small businessmen and those living in rural areas. I've seen similar proposals come up in discussion forums and that is always the main thrust of attacks from a US audience. This is for all the usual reasons which I won't bore anyone with unless they want me to.

I take it the tax is meant for new vehicles only at this point? It may be worth laying out the strategic need for the tax, although it depends on the audience I suppose.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Sun Nov 20th, 2005 at 05:09:16 PM EST
I would like to hear to hear all the "boring" reasons.
Why would rural people be impacted more than others? If they ran a business they would qualify for the tax free light truck use. If they just need to get around (even with longer distances) then what makes their needs different?

Small businesses have to pay the tax as with any other business expense. Adding $5,000-10,000 to a vehicle cost of $30,000+ amortized over the life of the vehicle should not be a burden. Futhermore they could always chose to buy one that meets the fuel standards and is not taxed.

Yes, new cars only, although a federal use tax might be an interesting idea, as would ration coupons.


Policies not Politics
---- Daily Landscape

by rdf (robert.feinman@gmail.com) on Sun Nov 20th, 2005 at 05:55:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Counterfeiting, expensive logistical/bureaucratic hassles, black markets etc etc.  Rationing is just too big a pain in the ass.  I don't think it does anything above and beyond a big tax.  The poor will just sell their coupons anyway if the price gets right.  
As will I!
by HiD on Mon Nov 21st, 2005 at 12:41:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, to be honest, I call them the "boring" reasons because they are not very reality based IMO, so don't expect a passionate exposition.

Basically, the cultural backdrop to the argument is the hoary old cliches about the frontier and rugged individuals, both in business and rural areas.

The rural argument (which is designed to appeal in Montana etc. and push guilt on non-rural types) says that when you live out there in the wilds you need a pickup for moving fallen trees, collecting supplies, etc. Only a big city slicker would be trying to tax hard-working, hard-living people living their god-given American way of life.

(In case you are wondering, this is the one that I have been hit with most on dKos.)

The small business argument is typical of more rightward discussion venues and just revolts at the notion of any extra tax on small business, let alone one that affects them more than big business. There will be shrill denunciations of the idea that 10,000 extra over the life of the vehicle is small money.

As I say, this is just my experience of arguments raised. I neither view them as particularly persuasive or reality-based. They do however seem to fit well into large parts of the USian political psyche. They do so in much the same way Libertarianism does, by appealing emotively to the frontier and underdog myths of US culture.

As an aside there are days when I really want to rant about the humbug and taboos surrounding "small business" in a lot of political debates, but this post is probably not the place for that.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Nov 21st, 2005 at 04:37:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
 too complicated.  Not to mention very unpopular.  I drive a pickup (26 mpg 4 cyl with a stick) because I have to haul my own garbage to the transfer pt.  No way I do that in our car!  Lots of people have good use for a small pickup.  While I generally find full blooded libertarians earn the "loonytarian" moniker, on this point I'd vote with them.

Also, variable CAFE stds already exist.  Light trucks have a different std, but I agree we need to classify most if not all SUVs as cars.  And mini trucks like mine should be held to car stds rather than hauling stds.  

Variable taxes at source generated by comparing gas mileage to the std will be very unpopular.  the frame is "govt messing in your business" and it will work.  Just raise the gasoline tax blaming inflation etc.  More chance of selling that.

Overall, I suspect all that will really work here is the natural price rise as cheap energy is no more.
The American public is just too spoiled and ignorant to accept a change without pain up front.

by HiD on Mon Nov 21st, 2005 at 12:53:55 AM EST
You trash transfer is an interesting issue. If the only reason you have a pickup is for this use then a useful calculation would be how much this is costing you per year over the cost of a smaller passenger auto.

Let's assume, for the sake of argument it is $3000 (excess purchase cost spread over life of veheicle + increased gas consumption of all travel). So if you could find a private contractor to haul your trash on a regular basis for less you would be better off paying for the service. Thus your truck use is not economically efficient.

Add to this the incremental cost for all your neighbors who have to do the same thing and you have a good argument for demanding, or creating, some new municipal services. I'm in the suburbs, not a rural area, but our trash pickup is managed by the village and subcontracted out to a trash hauling company. A bonus is the trash charge is bundled into our town tax and thus can be used as a deduction on our federal income tax return.

Your situation illustrates a good example of the need for government services instead of "every man for himself".


Policies not Politics
---- Daily Landscape

by rdf (robert.feinman@gmail.com) on Mon Nov 21st, 2005 at 09:19:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
sorry, cant agree.

First, the cost of me hauling my own trash is trivial.  I just haul it when I go to town on other biz and it only cost me a few hundred yds to go by the transfer station.  I'd guess annual cost at under $50 for the extra distance travelled.

Secondly, I already have a tiny vehicle with a 4 cyl engine.  Hard to get much smaller.  If Nissan were forced to meet higher CAFE on trucks, it would get comparable mileage to their smaller autos.  It's not like I have towing capacity or hauling capacitiy much in excess of 4 largeish humans...  I also need it to handle all the landscaping I'm doing on the property (hauling plants/dirt/rock etc).  On large loads I get delivery, but when you just buy say 20 plants, shoving them in the back on the way home from buying them than having a delivery truck make another trip.

We actually have trash pickup by the county at the end of our private road.  But it's far more hassle to haul trash cans back and forth the 1 km distance than to just head on to town.  And I'm still not putting 2 week old garbage that has been cooking in tropical heat in the same car as my nose!

by HiD on Mon Nov 21st, 2005 at 04:15:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, you didn't indicate that you had other uses for a truck in your original posting. So I figured that all the excess cost of owning the truck should be apportioned to that use. The cost is more than the $50 you cited since you pay for the inefficiency of the truck whenever you use it in place of your smaller car.

The landscaping use is an interesting issue, however. I assume you are doing this just to maintain your property and not for income generation. In that case you would need to do a calculation of how much the truck costs for that (and any other uses you didn't mention) purpose. Let's say, for example, you need to do large-scale landscaping 20 times/year. You could rent a truck at about $100/day for this use. Total about $2000/year. Compare with the cost of owning. If you feel that the convenience of owning is worth the extra cost (don't forget insurance and maintenance) then under my scheme you would have to pay the tax. It is really a lifestyle choice, after all.

I didn't say this was going to be an easy sell, but compare it to the chances of getting a real alternative to CAFE standards. Image the dislocation if each vehicle had to meet standards instead of just the fleet average. No one in the US wants to give up their choices and/or pay for the common good. That's the ultimate issue.


Policies not Politics
---- Daily Landscape

by rdf (robert.feinman@gmail.com) on Mon Nov 21st, 2005 at 05:10:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
actually our car is worse than the truck (I lost the battle on that with the wife).  We drive the truck when there's only a need for 2 to minimize gas use.

But what I'm not getting thru is that even a pretty progressive sort like myself is not going to tolerate society deciding what sort of vehicle I can own.  You'll be a very lonely voice in the wilderness with this plan.  I've made a reasonably informed analysis as to my needs and a mini pickup is the answer.  I've no problem with CAFE standards that force broad, shared conservation or higher gas taxes, but when you start telling me what I can own based on your analysis of my needs, I'll be opposed to you.  

The analysis you posit basically says none of us should own a vehicle.  We can use rentals/public transport/moped/bike/walk.  When we lived in big cities like London, that's what we did.  Now that we are in rural nowhereville, we really have different needs and can afford the luxury of 2 vehicles.

by HiD on Mon Nov 21st, 2005 at 11:08:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
OK, my last attempt to get my point across:

My plan doesn't tell you what type of vehicle to buy or even if you should. It only requires that you pay a tax if your usage is "inefficient". You can buy anything you like and drive it as much or as little as you wish, but if you purchase an inefficient vehicle you are putting an unnecessary burden on society in terms of excess resource consumption and, unlike now, you are required to compensate society for this action.

I don't expect my plan to be adopted, it requires sacrifice by all sectors. Buyers pay higher prices, makers face shifting demand to cheaper cars, oil companies face declining demand and government faces a fall off in oil tax revenue (partly compensated by my inefficency tax).

I think the fact that everyone is affected proves it is a fair proposal.


Policies not Politics
---- Daily Landscape

by rdf (robert.feinman@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 09:45:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I understand, but I think you have nil chance of selling this.

I don't understand the point of proposing a plan that you don't expect to be adopted.  Mental exercise?  We need real world progress.

by HiD on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 02:49:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

#5 Only those who are "in business" would be able to buy a light truck. To be in business you would have to show proof.

this is what kills it for me.

by HiD on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 03:15:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
#5 Only those who are "in business" would be able to buy a light truck. To be in business you would have to show proof.

My fault, for the poor wording. It should be: "would be able to buy a light truck without paying the automobile efficency difference tax". This is made clear further down in the discussion.


Policies not Politics
---- Daily Landscape

by rdf (robert.feinman@gmail.com) on Tue Nov 22nd, 2005 at 03:54:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
but we are promoting a similar idea in our Energize America blueprint - in this case an incentive on purchase for vehicles with better rated MPG.

I agree with the principle.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Nov 21st, 2005 at 05:36:34 AM EST


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