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Pulse of the Nations (IV): EuroPolls Ressurrection

by ManfromMiddletown Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 03:02:06 AM EST

Close to a year ago now, I started a series called Pulse of the Nations that tracked European and world opinion polls.  I originally had plans to turn it into an educational effort, but that died quickly when Migeru set me straight on the complexities of educating the masses about confidence levels and the like.  Such grand plans will be set aside for the resurrection of the Pulse of the Nations.  

I'm going to use the same format as Fran does for European Breakfast, there will European  and International sections. And every week (asssuming that I keep it up, which isn't a guarantee, we'll see) I'll post a demographic question, and while I'm ressurecting things, I'd like to see if we can get people to sign up for the Eurotrib Frapper page that put in little pins for everybody on a map.  That would allow us to see where every one is from.


Poll
What did you study at University?
. Social Science (Economics, Poltical Science, Sociology) 22%
. Physical Science (Chemistry, Biology, etc) 22%
. Engineering 0%
. Mathematics/Computer Science 22%
. Liberal Arts (Literature, Art, etc) 22%
. Other (explain below) 4%
. I didn't attend University. 4%

Votes: 22
Results | Other Polls
Display:


And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 03:05:48 AM EST
Czechs Would Welcome Early Election

Do you think an early election to the House of Representatives should be called?

Yes   62%

No    28%

Source: STEM
Methodology: Interviews with 1,646 Czech voters, conducted from Sept. 1 to Sept. 8, 2006. No margin of error was provided.




And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 03:09:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Schuessel Party Leads in Final Austrian Poll

- The governing Austrian People's Party (OVP) heads to tomorrow's legislative ballot in the European country as the favourite, according to a poll by Market released by NEWS. 38 per cent of respondents would vote for the OVP in the election to the National Council.

The Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPO) is second with 35 per cent, followed by The Greens (Grune) with 10 per cent, the Freedom Party of Austria (FPO) also with 10 per cent, the Hans-Peter Martin list with three per cent, and the Alliance for Austria's Future (BZO) also with three per cent.




And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 03:20:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
OVP Drops, Greens Gain in Austrian Campaign

Support for the governing Austrian People's Party (OVP) fell slightly in the European country, according to a poll by OGM. 37 per cent of respondents would support the OVP in this Sunday's election to the National Council.

The Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPO) is second with 35 per cent, followed by The Greens (Grune) with 11 per cent, the Freedom Party of Austria (FPO) also with 10 per cent, the Hans-Peter Martin list with three per cent, and the Alliance for Austria's Future (BZO) also with three per cent.

Source: OGM
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 800 Austrian adults, conducted on Sept. 18, 2006. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.




And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 03:48:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
People's Party Victory Expected in Austria


 The governing Austrian People's Party (OVP) extended its advantage in the European country, according to a poll by Market released by NEWS. 39 per cent of respondents would support the OVP in this Sunday's election to the National Council.

The Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPO) is second with 34 per cent, followed by The Greens (Grune) with 11 per cent, the Freedom Party of Austria (FPO) with nine per cent, the Hans-Peter Martin list with three per cent, and the Alliance for Austria's Future (BZO) also with three per cent.

Source: Market / NEWS
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 Austrian adults, conducted on Sept. 20, 2006. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.




And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 03:57:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]

OVP Ahead as Austrian Election Nears


The Austrian People's Party (OVP) could once again form the federal government in the European country, according to a poll by Gallup. 38 per cent of respondents would vote for the OVP in this Sunday's election to the National Council.

The Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPO) is second with 35 per cent, followed by The Greens (Grune) with 11 per cent, the Freedom Party of Austria (FPO) with 10 per cent, the Hans-Peter Martin list with three per cent, and the Alliance for Austria's Future (BZO) also with three per cent.

Source: Gallup
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,500 Austrian adults, conducted on Sept. 19, 2006. Margin of error is 4.5 per cent.




And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 04:00:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Opposition Partners Gains Support in Ireland

The governing Fianna Fáil party is holding on to first place in Ireland, according to a poll by Red C published in the Sunday Business Post. 33 per cent of respondents would support the Soldiers of Destiny in the next parliamentary ballot.

Fine Gael--led by Enda Kenny--is second with 25 per cent, followed by the Labour party with 14 per cent, Sinn Fein with eight per cent, the Green Party with seven per cent, and the Progressive Democrats with four per cent.




And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 03:22:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Britons fell Brown forced Blair Out

Gordon Brown has been accused by some politicians and commentators of trying to force Tony Blair out of office. Do you think he has or has not been doing this?

Yes he has     48%

No he has not  25%

Don't know     27%

Source: YouGov / Daily Telegraph
Methodology: Online interviews with 1,546 British adults, conducted on Sept. 21 and Sept. 22, 2006. No margin of error was provided.

Complete Poll




And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 03:27:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Blair Worse Than Thatcher for Britons

Do you think history will judge Tony Blair to have been a better or worse prime minister than Margaret Thatcher?

Better                              30%

Worse                               47%

The same                            15%

Not sure                            9%

Do you think history will judge Tony Blair to have been a better or worse prime minister than John Major?

Better                             48%

Worse                              26%

The same                           17%

Not sure                           10%

Whoever gets elected as Labour party leader after Tony Blair, should the new leader call a general election immediately, or within the first six to 12 months, or later than this?

Immediately                        35%

Within the first six to 12 months  35%

Later than this                    18%

Don't know                         12%

Source: Communicate Research / The Independent
Methodology: Interviews with 1,010 British adults, conducted on Sept. 8 and Sept. 9, 2006. Margin of error is 3 per cent.




And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 04:14:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Dutch Labour Barely Ahead, Socialists Gain

The opposition Labour Party (PvdA) is holding on to the top spot before this year's legislative election in the Netherlands, according to a poll by TNS Nipo. The survey suggests that the PvDA, led by Wouter Bos, would control 37 seats in the Second Chamber.

The Christian-Democratic Appeal (CDA) is second with 36 seats, followed by the People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) with 28 seats, and the Socialist Party (SP) with 24 seats. Six other political organizations would send legislators to the Second Chamber.

The poll shows a three-seat increase for the SP in a week, while support for the PvdA, the CDA and the VVD fell by one mandate.

Source: TNS Nipo
Methodology: Telephone interviews to 1,453 Dutch adults, conducted from Sept. 21 to Sept. 23, 2006. No margin of error was provided.




And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 03:30:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Cameron Leads Brown as UK's Preferred PM

Who do you think would make the best prime minister?

David Cameron       30%

Gordon Brown        25%

Menzies Campbell    7%

Don't know          38%

Source: YouGov / Daily Telegraph
Methodology: Online interviews with 1,733 British adults, conducted on Sept. 21 and Sept. 22, 2006. No margin of error was provided.




And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 03:33:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Brown Inherits Blair's Problems in Britain

Thinking about the Labour party and
the question of who will take over from Tony Blair
 when he steps down, please can you say whether you agree or disagree
with each of the followingstatements:

When it comes to the unpopular decisions the
Labour government has made, such as the war in
Iraq or more private sector involvement in the
health service, Gordon Brown is just as
responsible for them as Tony Blair

Agree   79%

Disagree 15%

The Labour party seems as divided now as the
Tories were before they lost power in 1997

Agree  71%

Disgree 24%

Whoever takes over from Tony Blair, they
need to make a clean break with the policies
of the past ten years

Agree  57%

Disgree 39%

Gordon Brown has changed his image in the past
12 months for the better. He's now more likeable,
charismatic and seems to be more in touch with
ordinary people's lives

Agree 33%

Disagree 60%

Source: Populus
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,013 British adults, conducted on Sept. 20 and Sept. 21, 2006.
No margin of error was provided.




And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 03:55:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Main Leaders Keep Gaining Points in France

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Jacques Chirac's performance as president?

               Sept. 2006     Aug. 2006  Jul. 2006

Satisfied         38%           36%        38%

Dissatisfied      61%           63%        61%

Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Dominique de Villepin's performance as prime minister?

              Sept. 2006     Aug. 2006    Jul. 2006

Satisfied         37%           32%         28%

Dissatisfied      60%           66%         71%

Source: Ifop / Le Journal du Dimanche
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,870 French adults, conducted from Sept. 7 to Sept. 15, 2006. No margin of error was provided.




And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 04:05:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hungarians Review Opposition's Role in Riots

Do you believe the Hungarian Citizens Party (Fidesz) contributed to the riots in Budapest?

Yes   51%

No    49%

Source: Szonda Ipsos
Methodology: Interviews with 1,000 Hungarian adults, conducted on Sept. 19 and Sept. 20, 2006. No margin of error was provided.




And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 04:18:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So, out of 1,000 people we have a 51-49 split. How significant is that?

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 07:38:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A poll by another pollster (Medián) that also had the options "Government reponsible", "Both" and "Neither", conducted on September 17 and 24, got a more differentiated picture (the later results, with change from the week prior):

  • 40% (-2) blame the government for the disorder,
  • 19% (+4) blame the opposition,
  • 34% (+/-0) blame both sides.

Also, the percentage of those wanting PM Ferenc "I lied!" Gyurcsány to resign fell from 52% to 44%.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 12:36:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Most Poles Opposed to U.S. Missile Shield

Do you support or oppose the construction of an anti-missile site in Poland?

Support    33%

Oppose     49%

Not sure   18%

Source: TNS OBOP
Methodology: Interviews to 1,015 Polish adults, conducted from Sept. 7 to Sept. 11, 2006. No margin of error was provided.




And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 04:19:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Another poll that should be saved and thrust into the face of everyone who buys the neocon spin or equates people with their elites.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 12:48:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
High Support for Smoking Ban in France

Do you favour or oppose the proposal to ban smoking in...

                           Favour          Oppose

Restaurants                    77%               23%

Cafes, bars and brasseries     66%               34%

Discotheques and night clubs    61%              39%

Source: Ifop
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 957 French adults, conducted on Sept. 7 and Sept. 8, 2006. No margin of error was provided.

This is a shame.  I'm personally willing to let others smoke in public so long as I may piss in their coffee.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 04:26:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hehehe :-)

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 12:25:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Wasn't it the Irish who just recently passed a smoking ban?  I just don't understand why people think that they should be able to put smoke into the air that others have to breath.  If they want to do it, they should at the very least do it outside where it won't linger.  My niece has a heart condition, and it very sensititive to smoke.  It was always horrible to watch here cough because some asshole wanted to smoke at the next table even though we were in the non-smoking "section."

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 12:40:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
For the record, my "hehehe" was meant to express a 100% agreement.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 12:46:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I thought so, still I want to piss in their coffee, really it's only fair.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 01:58:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is the precise argument I use when I demand that the world ban cars. And perfume.

Seriously though, I'd much rather see a licensing regime coupled with the ban. Let businesses which want smoking to pay for it, perhaps you could have it on a scale to reflect social norms - restaurants would have to pay the most for the license (and perhaps could get a reduction if they had real seperation between smoking and non-smoking sections), bars the least. I enjoy smoking and drinking together. I want to be able to sit in a cigar room and stink it up, or smoke a cig with my gin & tonic. They go together like cheese and crackers. It's absurd that people being offended by the smell should require that they never smell it anywhere in public. Even worse is the righteous indignation that comes after the ban - there is nothing like being yelled at for smoking outside on a sidewalk next to a sign that says "DESIGNATED SMOKING AREA" and having people yell at you for smoking near them as they walk past you.
It was Ireland where they implemented smoking ban, from what I have read and been told it has gone well in many areas. Most locals don't follow the ban, but who is going to enforce it in them? In some areas it has actually increased the number of smokers as non-smokers end up being forced to go outside to hang out with the smokers and thus pick up the habit since they are standing around in the cold with nothing to do but talk and it can be rather enjoyable to smoke in those circumstances. I've also been told that many pubs have created nice little outdoor areas to make the smokers feel welcome.

I do understand about the smoke sensitivity too - my mother in law is extremely sensitive to it, but that sort of sensitivity is to any kind of smoke - there is nothing unique about cigarette smoke which makes it particularly abrasive. Car exhaust can have the same effect and thus parking garages can be a bad place for her. Car exhaust has the added benefit of being both a proven carcinogen and a cause of global warming, I would say it is overall far worse than cigarette smoke :)
 

by Jett on Mon Oct 2nd, 2006 at 02:51:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
PSOE Steady, PP Gains a Point in Spain

Support for the governing Socialist Worker's Party (PSOE) remains stable in Spain, according to a poll by Instituto Opina released by Cadena Ser. 43 per cent of respondents would vote for the PSOE in the next general election, while 39 per cent would support the opposition conservative Popular Party (PP).

Source: Instituto Opina / Cadena Ser
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 Spanish adults, conducted on Sept. 13, 2006. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.




And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 04:29:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]
President Zapatero, Rajoy Gain in Spain

More Spaniards are satisfied with José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, according to a poll by Instituto Opina released by Cadena Ser. 51.4 per cent of respondents approve of the president's performance, up 1.5 points since late August.

Zapatero--of the Socialist Worker's Party (PSOE)--was sworn in as president of the government in April 2004, following his party's victory in the legislative ballot. The conservative Popular Party (PP) had administered the government under José María Aznar since 1996.

Support also increased for current PP leader Mariano Rajoy. 31.4 per cent of respondents approve of the opposition leader's performance, up 0.9 points in two weeks.

Source: Instituto Opina / Cadena Ser
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 Spanish adults, conducted on Sept. 13, 2006. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.

I really have to congratulate Zapatero, this is impressive when most world leaders of any persuasion are down.  

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 04:33:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Support for Merkel Parties Eroding in Germany


Fewer Germans would vote for the Christian-Democratic Union (CDU) and the Bavarian Christian-Social Party (CSU) in the next federal election, according to a poll by Infratest-Dimap. 32 per cent of respondents would support either party, down two points in two weeks.

The Social Democratic Party (SPD) is second with 31 per cent, followed by the Free Democratic Party (FDP) with 13 per cent, the Green Party (Grune) with 10 per cent, and the Left Party (Linke) with nine per cent.

Source: Infratest-Dimap
Methodology: Telephone interviews with 1,000 German voters, conducted from Sept. 19 and Sept. 20, 2006. Margin of error is 3.1 per cent.




And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 03:16:27 AM EST
Merkel Drops to Second Place in Germany

The Social Democratic Party (SPD) has become the most popular political organization in Germany, according to a poll by Forsa released by Stern and RTL. 30 per cent of respondents would support the SPD in the next election to the Federal Diet.

The Christian-Democratic Union (CDU) and the Bavarian Christian-Social Party (CSU) are second with 29 per cent, followed by the Free Democratic Party (FDP) with 15 per cent, the Left Party (Linke) with 10 per cent, and the Green Party (Grune) with nine per cent.

Source: Forsa / Stern / RTL
Methodology: Interviews with 2,499 German adults, conducted from Sept. 18 to Sept. 22, 2006. Margin of error is 2.5 per cent.




And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 03:43:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]


And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 04:37:44 AM EST
Lula on the Verge of Victory in Brazil

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva remains the top contender in Brazil's presidential race, according to a poll by Instituto Sensus. 51.1 per cent of respondents would vote for the Worker's Party (PT) incumbent in this Sunday's ballot.

Former Sao Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin of the Brazilian Party of Social Democracy (PSDB) is second with 27.5 per cent, followed by former PT member and senator Heloisa Helena of the Socialism and Freedom Party (PSOL) with 5.7 per cent.

Support is lower for former education minister Cristovam Buarque of the Democratic Labour Party (PDT), Ana Maria Rangel of the Republican Progressive Party (PRP), Luciano Bivar of the Social Liberal Party (PSL), Jose Maria Eymael of the Social Democratic Christian Party (PSDC), and Rui Costa Pimenta of the Workers Cause Party (PCO).

Lula--a three-time presidential candidate--won the October 2002 election with 61 per cent of the vote in a run-off against the PSDB's Jose Serra. In the first round, Lula received 47 per cent of the vote, while Serra garnered 24 per cent. In a prospective run-off against Alckmin, Lula holds a 21.9-point edge.

Source: Instituto Sensus
Methodology: Interviews with 2,000 Brazilian adults, conducted from Sept. 22 to Sept. 24, 2006. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

Underperformer....?


And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 04:39:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Lula Remains on Pace for First Round Win

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva heads to this Sunday's presidential election in Brazil as the overwhelming favourite, according to a poll by Zogby International and the University of Miami School of Communication. 51 per cent of respondents would vote for the Worker's Party (PT) incumbent.

Former Sao Paulo governor Geraldo Alckmin of the Brazilian Party of Social Democracy (PSDB) is second with 22 per cent, followed by former PT member and senator Heloisa Helena of the Socialism and Freedom Party (PSOL) with nine per cent.

Source: Zogby International / University of Miami School of Communication
Methodology: Interviews with 923 likely Brazilian voters, conducted from Sept. 2 to Sept. 13, 2006. Margin of error is 3.3 per cent.

The election is being run today.  We'll see if Lula wins in the first round, or has to go on to the second.


And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 04:42:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Chávez First, Rosales Second in Venezuela

Incumbent president Hugo Chávez could earn a new term in office in Venezuela, according to a poll by Hinterlaces. 48 per cent of respondents would support the Fifth Republic Movement (MVR) candidate in this year's election.

Zulia governor Manuel Rosales of A New Time (UNT) is second with 30 per cent. Two per cent of respondents would vote for other candidates, and 20 per cent remain undecided.

Source: Hinterlaces
Methodology: Interviews with 1,200 Venezuelan adults, conducted from Aug. 24 to Sept. 3, 2006. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

Zulia?  Interesting, that's the province where all the oil is at, and the site of a neo-liberal seperatist group called Rumbo Propio.  This could be very interesting.  I'd half suspect that attempted seccession might follow failed election if Chavez wins, which I have no doubt he will.  Good or bad, he's the people's choice.  Hopefully, I'm wrong.  

But I'm having images of the CIA funding a seccession movement, and all the half ass Cuban revolutionaries being sent to fight Chavez.  I hope not, but a possibility.  

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 04:48:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This poll is suspicious, here is an analysis of it:


Someone would seem to be BSing the polls
Ok, I know I promised not to post on polls anymore but given that a little poll war has broken out I think I should throw this up on the blog for public consumption.

In the past week an American polling firm, Penn & Schoen, came out with a poll purporting to show that Rosales was within 15% of Chavez. The problem is, that same polling firm was involved in some very contraversial exit polls during the Referendum on Chavez two years ago that turned out to almost certainly not be true.

Then a Venezuelan polling firm, Hinterlaces, came out with a poll showing Chavez declining below 50% and Rosales in the 30% range. That seemed plausible but odd given that other recent polls have shown Chavez with a huge lead and Rosales never even cracking 20%. One of those polls was by the large Venezuelan polling firm Datos. Today they came out with an even more recent poll showing that not only had Chavez not declined in support but he actually increased his support ever so slightly while Rosales continues to trail very badly. So something does appear to be afoot here.

More complete poll data:

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 02:43:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
What do you make of the Zulia part?  Is Rosales part of Rumbo Propio?  I have no doubt Chavez will win, nonetheless.  Neither a devil, nor a an angel the man be. Just a man, with the imperfections that come with that.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 03:26:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't know enough of the situation to say if the separatist thing is a real threat. Given that Chavez got control of PDVSA back after the USA sponsored lock-out, I doubt it's that big.
by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 05:24:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Rumbo Propio

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Bill of 11 Rights

  1. A strong but limited Government, in charge of Security, Law-Enforcement and Public amenities.
  2. A strong and rich full employment and high life level and free-market economy.
  3. A neutral State, with no opinions in private non offensive matters.
  4. Low taxes.
  5. No huge amount of public debt.
  6. Hard money, free money.
  7. Popular privatizations of oil and economic state enterprises, with shares for all.
  8. Law, no regulations.
  9. Private Institutions, non State dependent ones.
  10. Popular privatizations of educational, medical and pensional state institutions for teachers and professors, doctors and nurses, clerks and workers.
  11. Vouchers for poor people.

It's a neoliberal plot, and I have no doubt that it's getting fundig from the US government.  

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 10:54:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Iraqis See U.S. Army as Destabilizing Force

Do you think the U.S. military presence in Iraq is currently a stabilizing force or that it is provoking more conflict than it is preventing?

A stabilizing force                             21%

Provoking more conflict than it is preventing   78%

Don't know / Refused                            1%

Do you think that Iraq today is generally headed in the right direction or the wrong direction?

                     Sept. 2006   Jan. 2006

Right direction        47%            64%

Wrong direction        51%           36%

Source: Program on International Policy Attitudes / WorldPublicOpinion.org
Methodology: Interviews with 1,150 Iraqi adults, conducted from Sept. 1 to Sept. 4, 2006. Margin of error is 3 per cent.

Ain't this fucking precious.

This one is a keeper.  As soon as I get done here, I'm going to take my half drunk ass over to Dkos to post this.  

Democracy in action my ass.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 04:54:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
More numbers you should post at dKos:

_About 61 percent approved of the attacks -- up from 47 percent in January. A solid majority of Shiite and Sunni Arabs approved of the attacks, according to the poll. The increase came mostly among Shiite Iraqis.

_An overwhelmingly negative opinion of terror chief bin Laden and more than half, 57 percent, disapproving of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

_Three-fourths say they think the U.S. plans to keep military bases in Iraq permanently.

In light of the on-going civil war and separatist movements, the following is especially interesting:

_A majority of Iraqis, 72 percent, say they think Iraq will be one state five years from now. Shiite Iraqis were most likely to feel that way, though a majority of Sunnis and Kurds also believed that would be the case.


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 12:45:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I opted for pretty pictures, see here.

But Dkos is wrapped up in an ongoing debate about whether the Republican Congressman who made explicit sexual statements to a 17 year old page is a pedophile, or simple sexual predator.  Iraq is not important, which makes you wonder whether the revelation now might be some sort of fucked up immunization attempt, to draw the public away from the mess in Iraq.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 02:03:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Tell me if you think that this is useful, or if I should just put these in on Fran's European breakfast.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 04:57:55 AM EST
No, it's great as you do it, keep it in your own separate diary.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 12:47:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Great, many thanks for this diary!

My preference is to continue on separate diaries rather than augmenting breakfast.

by Laurent GUERBY on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 02:46:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think you should keep this up, when ever you find the time to do it - this is an interesting diary.
by Fran on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 03:41:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I did not intend to kill your series, ManfM.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 05:31:04 AM EST
I know.

I had to give you shit.  I understand among the Spanish this is a sign of friendship.

I realize know that I should just have posted the damn polls, and avoided any noble intentions.

So when's the next time we're going to see your EU review that you did for a while.  

We all grow tired of series over time.  They take a lot of time....

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 05:54:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I should get back into the EU review groove, I agree... I got involved in several spats last December and they took their toll.

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 05:55:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Was it last December when you and Plutonium Page got into it?

I remember it was February when myself and Francois got into it about France and the US.

Has anyone every put together a Eurotrib history diary?

I'm think through big things, and the ones that spring to mind are you and Page's fight, Ritter and his GBCW (Goodbye Cruel World) diary. Any others?

Oh yes, Jerome's excursion into soft porn.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 06:13:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There's the "the Russians are coming, the Russians are coming" one as well as "ET is anti-British", the one on Brunoken's citizenship diary...

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 06:26:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Good idea, we could definitely create a graph showing "number of heated debates" over time (with "heated" being left up to subjective appreciation), and see if these match any identifiable pattern(s) (events, climate ...).
by Alex in Toulouse on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 07:24:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The number of pirates...

Those whom the Gods wish to destroy They first make mad. -- Euripides
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 07:27:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I spend three hours putting this together,and you guys play with the box.  

Hmmm....

Now I'm wondering what my claim to faim would be.

We all have our personas, I'm curious how I'm pereived.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 07:34:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
was never posted on ET...

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 03:20:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not by you.

I remember linking to it though, thus it is part of the EuroTrib history ... or not?

We should have a Eurotrib history diary.

I've also though that it would be nice to have a Non-English Open Thread from time to time for those who feel uncomfortable writing in English.  I have a title.

No Speak English Thread.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 03:24:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think I linked to it.  And there was some debate about it here, so it is fair game.  We have a responsibility to bear witness to this strange chapter in blog history.  Never forget.  ;P

Those who can make you believe absurdities can make you commit atrocities. -Voltaire
by p------- on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 04:55:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This information is excellent for me because it gives an overall view in short pieces, without having to read dozens of sources.

I learn something about countries I don´t follow and I can pick what I want to research further.

Big Thank You.

Our knowledge has surpassed our wisdom. -Charu Saxena.

by metavision on Sun Oct 1st, 2006 at 10:00:19 AM EST


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