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The New Way Forward: Strategic Withdrawal

by GreyHawk Sat Dec 23rd, 2006 at 01:24:53 PM EST

We are engaged in an illegal war of aggression in a foreign land for the sole purpose of controlling a primary resouce: oil. Although wrapped with the trimmings and trappings of rhetorical propaganda to make the dish more palatable, it is nothing more than an ongoing bloodbath and international theft.

That's all.

The proponents of this -- the architects of death and dissembly -- are still in charge, free from any degree of accountability to date. An intervention in the form of the ISG paved the way toward a few potential solutions, but the Administration has all but rejected it. The spin machine says we are planning a new way forward, but don't be deceived. The only "forward" thinking is how to get the national dialogue on to another topic. Forget the ISG and the temporary "surge" solutions. Here's how to extricate the nation from Iraq. It's not going to make any friends in the Beltway, as it requires adherence to the "Pottery Barn" rule, applied as it should be: through the sacrifice of a sacred cow and the conscious effort to restore the true mantle of American leaderhip. Make the jump...


The State of The Nations


The United States Government currently claims that our economy is strong and that employment is hovering a little over 4% -- that's good, right? If we could believe the numbers, it would be. It would be fantastic. But we can't. Ever since taking office, the Bush Administration has been employing Enron-class accounting standards and steadfastly manipulating information; many folks suspect that the economy isn't as robust as the numbers tell, yet until actual data can be accessed we cannot truly assess the extent of the trouble we're in. That's by design. GOP design, neoconservative to be precise. If the true state of the nation was revealed -- like so much else that this Administration has hidden -- the nation as a whole would unite against the continuing agenda.


Iraq is much, much worse.


The US engaged in an illegal invasion on false pretense, and is now stuck attempting to quell an "insurgency" that was predicted by many experienced advisors. The Bush Administration and their many neoconservative pundits didn't care to follow that advice, and still refuse to be swayed from their course of action. The US military is rapidly deteriorating, yet contracts given through Administration favorites work steadily on airfields, mega-military bases and a new US Embassy that defies description. For all the talk of how the US is not intent to serve as foreign occupiers, we're making a very significant effort to establish a permanent presence.


In the meantime, the general national infrastructure of Iraq is still in shambles. The lack of consistent, reliable electricity and clean water resembles a third-world nation or worse. The civil war that our ill-advised empire building adventure generated has prevented anyone from safely using the spiffy "new schools" that have been built, and billions of dollars sent for the reconstruction efforts have simply gone missing with nary a peep of concern from the Bush Administration.


The destruction of a major US ammo dump by an insurgent mortar round recently served to remind us just how bad things are.


A recent report from the Iraq Study Group, which many believed was intended as a much-needed intervention to correct the disastrous course of George W. Bush agenda, has been rejected as a guideline toward a solution. Amid a background of messages that we're thinking of putting on a "show of force" in the Gulf to intimidate Iran, the Bush Administration is now pushing for a "temporary surge" of troops to Iraq for the purpose of securing Baghdad.


It's a mess.


We need a way out. It has to address ongoing problems, provide a solution to rebuild the infrastructure, help quiet the civil war, result in a major reduction of US presence and undo the diplomatic damage that this idiocy has spawned. Ideally, it will also short-circuit the potential for continuing the neoconservative plans for the Middle East, and leave them with little choice but to start addressing major issues like alternative energy and global warming.


The solution I propose addresses all of the points above. It starts with an admission that the US is currently unable to continue the folly set by the Bush Administration, and immediately sacrifices some major pieces on the chessboard: the 14 bases and the brand spankin'-new embassy.

With malice aforethought...


In the world of legal jargon, "malice aforethought" pertains to issues generally involving slander. In the realm of murder or acts of aggression, "intent" and "motive" are the operative terms. The Bush Administration is guilty in all aspects of this: they lied and cherry-picked intelligence in order to engage in a war that they had intended to embroil our nation in since before they even took office. IMO, this is "malice aforethought" speaking to how they sold the war and their purposeful manipulation of evidence in order to justify their intent.


As illustrated by occams hatchet in diaries here and here, the Bush Administration initiated an "Energy Task Force" almost immediately after the inauguration; while Dick Cheney's office has been refusing to provide details pertaining to the task force under the claim of "Executive Privilege," it is well known that the Iraq oil fields were discussed and allocated among various vying companies. This occurred starting at the end of January 2001 -- a full eight months before the attacks of September 11.


Is it only a coincidence that these attacks provided the "new Pearl Harbor" that the PNAC -- a group which Donald Rumsfeld, Dick Cheney and several other members of the early GW Bush Administration started -- spoke of in 1998? Considering that the Bush Administration went out of its way to obfuscate and deny information to the 9/11 Commission in order to avoid appearing incompetent, and stark information that points to the absolute likelihood that they were at the very least derelict in their duties to protect the nation but -- within hours of the attacks -- both Bush and Rumsfeld were pushing to tie the attacks to Saddam Hussein in order to atack, the least conclusion I can comfortably draw is that the intent to strike Saddam and invade Iraq was a focus to the exclusion of all else.


The initial attempts to link 9/11 to Saddam were too weak to fully substantiate a strike, yet funding was redirected from the Afghanistan efforts without the approval or oversight of Congress and applied toward planning the invasion of Iraq long before Bush claimed to have made up his mind to "take Saddam out." The best potential threat, two or three excuses later, was that Saddam had reconstituted his WMD program. This, too, eventually changed into "Operation Iraqi Liberation" -- the bringing of freedom and democracy to Iraq. Regime change. But the acronym was flawed, suggesting what many believed to be the true purpose behind the invasion: "O.I.L." It was quickly changed to "Operation Iraqi Freedom."


Regime change in Iraq was the first phase of the PNAC-derived plan to remake the Middle East and secure American control over critical oil supplies. Even as Bush and company cast about looking for a solution to the current quagmire, construction of 14 mega-bases and one super-mega embassy is under way. In spite of claims at the outset that the whole Iraq invasion would only last six weeks at the most, the Administration shifted gears and began to talk in earnest about "the Long War" and how we'll likely be in Iraq for many years to come.


This change, too, plays along the nearly ten year old PNAC agenda. Construction for the bases began a couple years ago; the start of the embassy coincides with that. Both speak to a permanence that predates the change in rhetoric. Neither the bases nor the embassy are based on slapdash plans -- it had to take time to develop them, approve them, fund them. As the timeline extrapolates backward, it becomes less likely that these plans spontaneously and miraculously appeared in a vaccum. The thinking to support them, to justify placement, and to approve both funding and contractors had to have happened. And it is unlikely that they all just "came together" in a weekend sometime in the last year over a couple of beers.


It does not meet the PNAC agenda to redeploy forces outside of Iraq and away from the oil fields.  Take a look at this diary by occams hatchet again, which clearly delineates the placement of the new airfields and bases in relation to the oifields, as found at this source. This is not a coincidence. It's their plan.

Image credit: occams hatchet


They are not going to acquiesce to the findings of the ISG -- that would be an admission of flawed execution. They are not going to leave their foothold in the Middle East, because that would compromise all that they'd accomplished to date. They are not going to pursue, fund or investigate alternative fuels -- such a move would undermine the whole justification for their planning. They will never acknowledge global warming -- to do so would call attention to their lack of enthusiasm for alternative energy sources, as well as detract from the "vital importance" they attach to the oil in the Middle East. They are not going to look out for the true needs and toward the future of our nation. That's not in their plan, and it has taken them nearly every resource they have to come this close to actually fully achieving it. They will not change their course.


They won't change, but we can. We can force them to abandon their failed venture before it can come to fruition, and perhaps save a little bit of our nation's soul in the process.


And here is where the call to sacrifice begins.


From sacred cow to fatted calf, faux pas to foie gras


The original acronym for the Iraq invasion was a possible Freudian slip -- an unintentional revelation of a subconscious desire or secret, a "lapsus" of the tongue (lapsus linguae), of the pen (lapsus calami) or the memory (lapsus memoriae). The occurrence of these various lapses of lapsus paint a stark contrast between word and meaning: we are left with the hefty implication that much of what the Bush Administration and their supporters are telling us is composed of lies. When viewed in this way, the "known known" of the Bush Administration's ties to Big Oil and the energy industry is even more strongly identified as their sacred cow. In words that their overzealous fundamental followers might better understand, that's a form of idolatry, closely related to another big no-no, the love of money and power. In a doff of the cap to the American Taliban, I'll continue below with the introduction of another term they should certainly know, if they actually bothered to read those Bibles they so vigorously thump.


For a long time now, I've feared that the facade brokered by the Bush Administration would remain virtually inassailable long enough for them to at least achieve a stable foothold in Iraq. Fortunately for us -- and it's a bittersweet fortune, indeed -- their striking incompetence has brought us to a point where we may be able to intercede effectively before they can kill the fatted calf to celebrate their victory. With the recent loss of Congressional control to the Democrats, Bush's tenure has taken on more of a lame duck status. The Administration has already signaled that it will engage in a a cataclysmic fight to the death to continue their agenda and fight against oversight and investigations. We can gut this lame duck administration's plan and craft some metaphysical foie gras as a start toward paving a true way forward out of the swamp.


Here's how:

  1. Turn the four major airports into international hubs.

    The invasion destroyed much of the infrastructure within the cities, and much of the Iraq cultural and historical background. Change the design of these hubs to also include cultural and historical museums and some international bazaars. Iraqi security forces would take responsibility for the outer perimeter and work with smaller international forces to secure entry and exit. Inside, a UN-sponsored security team with smaller incorporated Iraqi militia would provide internal security. The overall authority over the airport -- including whether or not to close it to air travel -- would be the responsibility of the Iraqi government, but the UN forces would be in place to prevent the overrun of the airports by "insurgents," Taliban or any attempt to lock down the airport by a new Hussein-like dictator. The primary management of the bases would be Arab -- perhaps an equivalent of Dubai Ports? -- but there would be an oversight committee comprised of UN membership states to ensure that "nothing nefarious" was done to undermine the semi-autonomy (and to quell outcry a little from an indignant GOP and their American Taliban supporters).


  2. Turn the 14 major military bases into international cultural centers of education, health and trade.

    Using the same model of Iraq troops for a backbone of security and UN troops for management and chain-of-command, the bases could be converted to be quality hospitals, schools and multi-cultural recreational areas. Iraq is part of the birthplace of civilization -- let's bring civilization back to Iraq.


  3. Turn over the US mega-embassy to Iraq.

    Make it a compound where Middle Eastern diplomatic committees can form and work with UN and international committees in the center of Baghdad. Create a major medical center within it where international experts can share and learn, and doctors from all over Iraq can come for advanced study then take their new knowledge back to apply in their local hospitals and villages.



There is nothing to say that the major monies already in play must remain committed to the follies of the agenda designed by the PNAC, supported by the neoconservatives and implemented by the Bush Administration. Just as "cutting and running" would leave Iraq in chaos, "surging" would only exacerbate the coming conflagrations. But, if the signs of an imperial occupation and puppet government could be redirected to turn this fiasco into a diplomatic coup -- one which sets the stage for opening and improving diplomatic relations between the nations of the Middle East with each other and the world, while helping establish something central to and owned by Iraq that is also somewhat immune to the vaguaries of internal and external tyrannical domination -- then perhaps this whole grand adventure would not be without a silver lining.


Do not take my suggestions as the only options; I'm rushing to get this out to you all for consideration. Take the above as a guideline only, and improve upon it with suggestions in comments below.


Love it or leave it, like it or lump it, I don't care -- but definitely say and do something, below. It's time we generated some "out of the box" ideas that could hurt a little and help a lot, while killing a <s>fatted calf</s> sacred cow and serving up a steaming plate of Administration foie gras.

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Crossposted on ePluribus Media, DailyKos,BooMan Tribune,European Tribune.

Never, never brave me, nor my fury tempt:
   Downey wings, but wroth they beat
Tempest even in reason's seat.
by GreyHawk on Sat Dec 23rd, 2006 at 01:32:05 PM EST
These are interesting ideas. However, I haven't noticed that Bush is listening to anybody other than people who tell him what he wants to hear. As sidney Blumenthal recently wrote;-

Unlike the political leader, the commander in chief doesn't require persuasion; he rules through orders, deference and the obedience of those beneath him. By discarding the ISG report, Bush has rejected doubt, introspection, ambivalence and responsibility. By embracing the AEI manifesto, he asserts the warrior virtues of will, perseverance and resolve. The contest in Iraq is a struggle between will and doubt. Every day his defiance proves his superiority over lesser mortals. Even the joint chiefs have betrayed the martial virtues that he presumes to embody. He views those lacking his will with rising disdain. The more he stands up against those who tell him to change, the more virtuous he becomes. His ability to realise those qualities surpasses anyone else's and passes the character test.

The mere suggestion of doubt is fatally compromising. Any admission of doubt means complete loss, impotence and disgrace. Bush cannot entertain doubt and still function. He cannot keep two ideas in his head at the same time. Powell misunderstood when he said that the current war strategy lacks a clear mission. The war is Bush's mission.

No matter the setback it's always temporary, and the campaign can always be started from scratch in an endless series of new beginnings and offensives - "the new way forward" - just as in his earlier life no failure was irredeemable through his father's intervention. Now he has rejected his father's intervention in preference for the clean slate of a new scenario that depends only on his willpower.

"We're not winning, we're not losing," Bush told the Washington Post on Tuesday, adding, "We're going to win." Winning means not ending the war while he is president. Losing would mean coming to the end of the rope while he was still in office. In his mind, so long as the war goes on and he maintains his will he can win. Then only his successor can be a loser.

Given this reality of the bush intransigence, how are these worthy aspirations going to translate from words to deeds ? I don't see it. He will continue to wreak havoc for the next two years and unless the Democrats get the stones to impeach and remove this madman nothing will change.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sat Dec 23rd, 2006 at 03:32:22 PM EST
In fact, I'd expect his entire Administration to violently oppose the ideas as outlined.

I'm hoping that if enough play is given to the concept of neutering the neocon action plan before it's set in stone, then Congress can act without the President's approval -- override him, so to speak.

It may not be feasible yet, but at least we can start a dialogue on possible options for the massively misdirected building efforts.

...oh, I also left out an important piece: all current contractors with ties back to Bush -- like KBR/Halliburton, Bechtel, etc. -- would be forbidden to continue their contracts and restricted from assuming new ones. Internal Iraq builders, using any internal contractors plus substantial firms from France and Germany, should take over the primary and replacement engineering.

Cut the sharks off from feeding.

Never, never brave me, nor my fury tempt:
   Downey wings, but wroth they beat
Tempest even in reason's seat.

by GreyHawk on Sat Dec 23rd, 2006 at 03:41:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
First of all, did you see David Sinclair's proposal An Answer for Iraq (second part here)?

The proposal doesn't mirror yours, though it sees (partial) troop withdrawal as a major aim. There's a lot of European (and American) reaction in the discussion threads.

There's more (partly) relevant discussion in my diary Neo-cons go out like lambs?.

An overall formal point I'd make on your proposal is that you spend rather too long describing the genesis (how America got Iraq into this mess and thanks to whom), and not enough on the exodus, that is, how to get out. I'd like to know more about the international airport hubs, for example. What purpose would they serve? Does Iraq need that many hubs? How long would the UN have to commit to guarding them, and the cultural centres, against the likely backdrop of continuing civil war?

I agree with you the US should withdraw, and in that case should relinquish any claim to ownership of military bases (and no doubt the mega-embassy too). Turning these places into something useful seems better than just abandoning them. But it isn't going to happen as long as Bush and Cheney are around. It isn't sure to happen after that. Those bases are an essential reason for the war. Certainly Iraq was invaded for oil, but not just Iraqi oil, and not just for immediate profit, but for control of the resource over the decades to come in the entire region. That happens to fit the neo-con/Israeli right-wing agenda of changing the map of the Middle East (involving Saddam's overthrow, the weakening of Syria, and regime change in Iran). Moving on to Iran, I think, was always in the minds of old GOP hawks like Cheney and Rumsfeld, who were marked by the three great disasters (for them) of the 70s: Vietnam, Watergate, and the loss of Iran.

So oil, yes, but first and foremost the prize was a puppet state in the middle of the region -- to use as a staging area from which to mount a possible Iranian operation, organise air control of the Middle East, station big troop concentrations long term. It all screwed up, to the benefit of Iran, but the current administration isn't going to give up what it probably considers as its gains, i.e. the bases. Even supposing a Democrat in the White House from 2008... Well, depends which Democrat.

Get-out-of-Saigon was one thing. The US could leave Vietnam and lose nothing but a hypothetical position in the Cold War. There's a lot more to lose in leaving Iraq, and much more danger of civil strife and partition of the country, with an attendant risk of regional war. Before the US can pull out (as I believe they should), partition has to be avoided, stability assured, warlords bought off, neighbouring countries reassured and rewarded for helpful behaviour (and Iran looms very large as a country whose cooperation in a settlement is a sine qua non). Will it be American policy to give up control of Middle East oil? Will it be American policy to allow Iran to proceed with a nuclear programme?

Unfortunately, I think those are the stakes.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sat Dec 23rd, 2006 at 04:26:08 PM EST
I spent too long on rehashing the genesis, but wanted to make that point in order to illustrate why the surrender of the airports, bases and embassy would make a difference, i.e. hitting the neocons where they thought they'd won.

I didn't put as much time into the elaboration of the concepts partly because I didn't want to assume too much -- my knowledge of the culture and of what such a thing could be, or even how to approach it, is lacking. I also hoped that good insight would come from folks in the comments.

Yours is a perfect example: you asked good questions and made strong observations, for which I thank you.

I strongly suspect that Bush/Cheney won't go along with such a plan, but if we can force it through Congressionally (a big "IF" but still possible), then the Cheney cabal would be at least partially neutered.

They do wish to move on toward Iran and Syria; there are now news reports that a second carrier "might" be added to the Persian Gulf in order to put on a show of force for Iran, which is something that several folks (myself included) have been hinting at as a strong sign that the Administration is hell-bent on triggering another conflict.

If we can neuter them and take their primary control out of the new bases and airports, they might be delayed or derailed before the bombs start dropping.

Never, never brave me, nor my fury tempt:
   Downey wings, but wroth they beat
Tempest even in reason's seat.

by GreyHawk on Sat Dec 23rd, 2006 at 04:44:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'd seen it, but forgotten about it -- I recognized it after starting to read the links. Thank you for posting them.

I'll got back refresh my memory; perhaps, between that and any other comments we catch here, or at BooMan or dKos, there will be enough for an update or summation piece.

Thanks, afew. :)

Never, never brave me, nor my fury tempt:
   Downey wings, but wroth they beat
Tempest even in reason's seat.

by GreyHawk on Sat Dec 23rd, 2006 at 04:48:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
These sound like American ideas for a solution to an Iraqi problem. How is that approach different from Bush's approach, except that you disagree with Bush's set of ideas? America tells the ragheads how to run their country...

I would also be interested in hearing your position on Darfur. Should the U.S. "do something" about the situation there, or should our position be to simply let local politics (possibly including genocide) work itself out without our intervention? The U.N. and Europe seem to be happy taking a hands-off approach...

Not trying to be a wise guy; these are complicated geopolitical questions.

by asdf on Sat Dec 23rd, 2006 at 04:44:24 PM EST
As I stated in the backside of the piece, I didn't mean for those suggestions to be sacrosanct; the essential part of them is that the US should relinquish claims on the airports and abandon the bases and embassy to Iraq. The potential use they are put to should be something that benefits Iraqis and can't help anyone else's attempt at nation-building or takeover.

I'm not intending to dictate how or what -- just find a way to disengage the US part before we screw things up even worse.

I don't have a lot to say on Darfur, unfortunately -- I've not been paying as much attention to it. The problems that BushCo is dealing to people in this country and externally in the name of the country have been preoccupying my time.  :/

Never, never brave me, nor my fury tempt:
   Downey wings, but wroth they beat
Tempest even in reason's seat.

by GreyHawk on Sat Dec 23rd, 2006 at 04:53:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It should have been on the front page of every newspaper and been read at the top of every news show at some point in the recent past as the media showed it was a key exponent of truth, law and justice. Sadly the media chooses to be a propoganda mouthpiece on a level that Stalin and Goebbels could only dream of.
Well wrtten.
by observer393 on Sat Dec 23rd, 2006 at 08:30:24 PM EST
Thanks, observer.

The media's still providing smokescreens instead of news...ideally, we'll wake 'em up sonner rather than later, 'cuz we need to reach all the people with the facts as they become available.

Never, never brave me, nor my fury tempt:
   Downey wings, but wroth they beat
Tempest even in reason's seat.

by GreyHawk on Sat Dec 23rd, 2006 at 09:32:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The US nation is in a very difficult position re Iraq. The largely unspoken threat of losing so many millions of barrels of oil for even a short period of a few months,  makes everyone think of their life without a personal vehicle in the US. It is not pretty. The US comes to a stop, literally. And a great deal of the energy-hungry W*st comes down with it.

Or does it?

In Europe, we might just survive. There is a public transport infrastructure. But most of all there is a 'living-memory' experience of how to survive with next to nothing for a few years, during and following WW2. European countries could possibly slash, in a draconian fashion, 30% or more from energy use without much effect on productivity. Energy would be prioritised, but people would still get to work.

This will not happen in the US. There are no easy alternatives for the automobile. Without the automobile, American society collapses. And that is at the back of everyone's mind in the US.

It is the classic rock and a hard place. You are going to lose either way. Cellular terrorists will never be defeated by a hierachy. Ever. They can only be beaten using the same tactics - but unfortunately the black ops specialists sent to defeat them wll be up against a desire for death on the part of muslim extremists, that hasn't ever been present in US military thinking.

It makes no difference now, to the world, whether the US troops leave immediately or in 5 years. The damage has already been done.

You can't be me, I'm taken

by Sven Triloqvist on Sun Dec 24th, 2006 at 03:37:28 PM EST
...it probably won't make much of a difference when the troops leave, but sooner is better than later I think.

I also believe that ~how~ the troops leave can greatly affect the overall outcome and how things proceed (or deteriorate) from there -- unfortunately, I have no reason to believe the current lunatics running the asylum can pull off a successful departure under their tenure.

:/

Never, never brave me, nor my fury tempt:
   Downey wings, but wroth they beat
Tempest even in reason's seat.

by GreyHawk on Sun Dec 24th, 2006 at 05:20:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
thanks for xposting this here, fantastic diary.

what come across most watching this sorry war unfold is this:

we want what they want, which is for iraq to be a stable, prosperous democracy, participating peacefully with its neighbours, its women and young educated, as is the case in iran, where 60% of all science graduates are women.

we have stained our collective conscience sending 600,000+ iraquis to an early grave, torturing and falsely imprisoning with little or no regard for the geneva convention.

we have enriched so many evil men with the public money spent on decimating iraqui infrastructure, spending a massive chunk of the planet's capital on this idiotic destruction while children starve daily for want of a handful of meal.

this is a terrible reflection of what we have to countenance in our inhumanity, as venal, lying leaders barely bother covering their trail, knowing, as they do, that they can count on an imbecilic media to keep people from growing up and taking responsibility for our environment.

blogging bodes well for positive change, i believe, there are so many talented writers who would previously have had a much harder time finding an attentive, hungry readership.

we could have spent that money on giving every iraqui food, water and shelter (like hamas and hizbollah), and an ipod too!

given the choice, young people want a global culture, they take the best and leave the rest.

my SO's 16 year old half cameroonian half german son, born and raised in italy, trilingual, studied 2 years in england, now on a 2 year stint in india at the united world college, great drummer, is being picked up for indian mtv in mombai for his hiphop vids.

he's very politically aware, and has already made it clear to them he's not changing his lyrics or doing mindless bling/ho stuff.

globalised...take the best...

they don't even want political idealogy other than peace and equal rights, they just want three squares, a nice place to live, and a job to contribute their energy to, and derive pride from.

and to have fun!

why is it so fucking complicated?

get all these old idjits to take early retirement and move over, rover!

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Mon Jan 1st, 2007 at 07:16:59 AM EST


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