by DoDo
Mon Apr 24th, 2006 at 06:43:47 AM EST
In 110 out of 176 single-seat election districts, decision was left for today, after the governing (nominally) centre-left MSzP-SzDSz coalition won a majority of both list votes and the other 66 single seats two weeks ago. (For more detail, read my post-first-round summary.)
First signs are that after a lacklustre campaign unlike four years ago, participation will be significantly lower than in the first-round (unlike four years ago): at 17:30, 57.63% voted (first round at this hour: 61.72%; second round 4 years ago at this hour: 67.87%...) This may indicate no rebound for the right-wing opposition (made up of parties Fidesz & MDF).
In updates below the fold: predictions, provisional final result, and now a short analysis and a political map.
(Seat distribution screen-captured from Hiradó)
From the diaries ~ whataboutbob
Update [2006-4-23 13:6:5 by DoDo]: Two pollsters released estimates. They give 63 resp. 67 to the governing coalition, 45 resp. 41 to the right-populist main opposition party Fidesz, and one each to an independent and the "laughing fourth" small right-wing party MDF. Both results would keep the Socialists under 50% (hence they have to continue their coalition with the (neo)liberals).
If this holds, Fidesz indeed failed to achieve the second-round rebound it did four years ago.
Update [2006-4-23 17:10:31 by DoDo]: The provisional second-round result: participation was 64.36% (in the end, second-highest after 2002, but that was 73.51%), 68 seats for MSzP (Socialists) and their liberal allies SzDSz, 41 for Fidesz, 1 independent. This will result in such a Parliament:
- MSzP: 190 seats (+12)
- SzDSz: 20 seats (+/-0)
- Fidesz: 164 seats (-4)
- MDF: 11 (-9 [+2 relative to remains after post-2002 splits])
- independent: 1 (+1 [-10])
(The final result, with votes cast at foreign embassies counted, comes only in a week - the race was close enough in 11 districts for a theoretically possible swing - 6 provisionally MSzP, 5 Fidesz -, but that won't affect the government majority.)
While the campaign was lacklustre, it was by no means not vicious and ugly. Especially the right-wing infighting, in particular Fidesz-inspired personal attacks against the leader of MDF.
Update [2006-4-24 5:7:36 by DoDo]: Short analysis:
I have said earlier that politics here aren't issue-based, yet it surprised even me just how issue-free these elections were. It was right-populist Fidesz that at least talked of real issues like the record budget deficit - but that embedded in a totally crazy bundle of tax-cutting supply-sider, hyper-socialistic, national-syndicalist and budget-prudence election promises.
In the end, as shown by a reduced youth vote for Fidesz, the salvo in the foot I wrote about (the anti-youth-culture tirades of a former Christian Democrat whom Fidesz made deputy-PM-candidate) seems to have been the deciding factor. But, in retrospect, it is more surprising that this and other scandals had only a 1-2% effect. Hearing/reading reactions and looking at polls, the bulk of the voters must have decided on the basis of longer-running personal hates and fears (Fidesz voters against PM Gyurcsány & co, MSzP, SzDSz, MDF voters against Fidesz leader Orbán, non-voters against both).
Thus it was no wonder that the Socialists' campaign had demonizing Orbán (which is easily done) as one of the three main elements. The other was to copy Tony Bliar's campaigns in as many details (and with as little inspiration) as possible. Gyurcsány's election-night celebration yesterday was such a fake orchestration I didn't knew whether to laugh or cry.
The third main element of MSzP's campaign was to mirror Fidesz in total base mobilisation. Unlike four years ago, Fidesz was active in poor or modern urban areas, and MSzP in small villages, each with at least a hundred thousand activists. One could celebrate this as parties at last gaining deeper roots in society as they have in the West, only politics being issue-free, it is not a coherent vision and shared worldview that got people into either.
So all in all, I can't be said to be expectant of what is to come...
Political map of Hungary (with the sociology underlying patterns explained)
From the official site, here is the color-coded map of the vote in the 176 single-seat election districts (magnified: capital Budapest) - the 97 in red: win for Socialist (MSzP) candidate, 3 in blue: win for liberal (SzDSz) candidate, 6 in pink: Socialist-liberal joint candidates (4 MSzP, 2 SzDSz guys), 69 in orange: win for Fidesz candidate, 1 in green: the sole independent.
The main bases of MSzP are: impoverished former mining regions (in the Southwest, Northwest near the capital, and Northeast around the northern one of those two red-encircled oranges); the impoverished rural East (the latter two more due to tradition than anything the government has done for them), the capital and its agglomeration (one third of Hungary's population live in it), and half of the other major cities (small election districts).
SzDSz candidates only won where they were joint candidates or MSzP withdrew its candidate for the second round, but still the indication is right that their voters are concentrated in Budapest and its agglomeration.
Fidesz's bases: the also impoverished but more conservative rural areas, mainly South (and North) of the capital, the relatively well-of West-Central (tourist region around Lake Balaton), the well-off 'national-liberal' and anti-communist West (SzDSz lost these voters to Fidesz between 1994 and 1998), the traditionally conservative and most well-off mountainous districts of Budapest, and the small but populous region of Hungary's second-largest city Debrecen (sometimes called the Mekka of Calvinism) in the East.
