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Curb your enthusiasm: not much will happen in the near future, other than Orban using the EP vote to rile up the base even further at home.

After Parliament slaps Hungary, what next?

If the Council does determine a "serious breach," the Parliament, the Council or the Commission could take initiate a further step -- deciding whether there is a "serious and persistent" breach of EU values. Reaching that conclusion could lead to the suspension of Hungary's right to vote on Council decisions. But there seems little appetite among EU governments to go that far.


The leaders of all EU governments (except Hungary) would need to vote in favor of a "serious and persistent breach" in order for the process to reach the next stage. That's a very high bar. Hungary has already said it would block any such step against Poland and it seems very likely that Warsaw would return the favor. Other EU governments that have come under fire for their democratic and human rights standards would also be very wary of setting a precedent that could be dangerous for them.

And that has to complete before any eventual vote by the Council to suspend the country's voting rights.

by Bernard on Thu Sep 13th, 2018 at 08:38:55 PM EST
management is still processing

From the look of it, doing nothing is a rational alternative to securing A7.3 unanimity in the Council on any intermediate or direct sanction, least of all "nuclear option," suspending voting rights. 2021-2017 budget "adjustments" are ongoing, and resolution is about May 2019.

Poland is not going anywhere.

FIDESZ-EPP factions are more likely to punish themselves, not unlike Tory gov, than literally kill off disgruntled constituents on this winter's streets since there are no immigrants to assault. And the forint is pretty useless -- 1: EUR 0.0032, 1:USD 0.0037, 1: GBP 0.0028, 1: PLN 0.0136.

Some people just have to learn the hard way that nadie es libre.

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sat Sep 15th, 2018 at 09:10:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Let's say, by 30 June 2019 suppression of Hungarians' civil rights (strictly speaking, no others' are relevant to EU gov police action) is overt and lurid.

UN picks over the "collateral damage," and its findings of fault (genocide, "war crimes," human rights violations) are inconclusive, as is the custom.

HU gov has not delivered A50 notice to the EU president.

Would it be unreasonable to expect incisive EU agreement to "discipline" HU where none before was forthcoming?

Diversity is the key to economic and political evolution.

by Cat on Sat Sep 15th, 2018 at 09:36:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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