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When do you expect this downturn to occur?  Will we see this in measurements such as the GDP?
by wchurchill on Fri Oct 14th, 2005 at 07:18:07 PM EST
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The timetable of the down-turn is, of course, a very intense question.  

Most bloggers, I mean the ones who actually look at the numbers, think we have two to five years.  But Ian Welsh, who posts on the main page at The Blogging of the President 2004, wrote last summer that the economic crash for the US would come in about a year and a half or so.  

From The Wilderness does not venture a timeline, but keeps a running track of clues and signposts--mostly news items relating to peak oil.  There are plenty of those.  

Jim Kuntsler recently blogged on an article in the New York Times about a developer named Toll and the unlimited market for homes in New Jersey.  The telling point, not mentioned in the NYT article, is that Toll himself is cashing out.  This suggests that although the housing bubble is peaking right now, the pop won't come for some months, as the last of the sucker trade is still to be sold their new homes.  After the pop, the general down-turn cannot be many months away, as people get trapped in their mortgages and enter financial distress.  

A year ago my dreams were telling me it would come early next summer.  This seemed awfully soon, but since Katrina and Rita I no longer really doubt it.  

Or again, it could happen tomorrow, for reasons nobody forsees.  

The main thing is not to count on a timeline, but to make preparations that do no depend strongly on when it happens, but that deal with the what of it.  Chavez has moved his assets out of dollars--for his own reasons--and so should you, at least partly, as a safety net, and certainly before the housing pop.  Into what?  That gets a bit murky.  FTW likes gold.  Many people are guessing euros.  I have not decided what I think will have value when the dollar turns to trash.  Food, water, tobacco, and whiskey, I suppose, but how much wealth can you store that way (assuming you have any)?  Drugs, for sure, if you are willing to go that route.  

A warning:  If you live in the US an executive order has already been signed allowing for seizure of your gold, food, water, and valuables.  Yes it is illegal, but that won't matter a bit--even without the new Supreme Court judges.  It does show, though, that they have been thinking ahead, despite their bumbling (some of which is intentional).  

Nobody will be worrying about the GDP.  

The Fates are kind.

by Gaianne on Thu Oct 20th, 2005 at 09:54:48 PM EST
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