Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Display:
thanks for making a decent and argued case for bullishness.
I voted "no growth", but if you want a really pessismistic outlook dissinulated under savvy investment advice, have a look at:

http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/HIM2005Q3_NP.pdf

I don't know them, but the kossack that pointed me to this doc+. wrote that they had an exceptional macro track record in the past. They are basically saying that interest rates will not increase because the recession will come before inflation makes it necessary.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Oct 15th, 2005 at 05:47:14 PM EST

House equity withdrawals are drying up. A fredie Mac study quoted in the above note suggests that house equity withdrawals made up 31% od personal consumption expenditures since 2000. That's a big fall in consumption that's coming.

And that graph (from Robert Schiller, the man who coined the expression "irrational exuberance", and then wrote the definitive book about it as the dotcom bubble burst) shows how far things could fall.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Oct 15th, 2005 at 05:55:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Occasional Series