Significant growth over next 5 years | 35 comments (35 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Significant growth over next 5 years (none / 1)

Europe has some experience in this area. The plague killed something like 1/3 of the population, which completely changed the economic environment. If one of our many possible catastrophes does actually take place, then the replacement economy need not be based on zero growth.

Also, isn't there an assumption here that economic growth requires the use of natural resources? Greenspan just said that oil is only about 2/3 as important as an economic input as it was in the 1970s; perhaps we could have an information economy that sustains ongoing growth. More books and music get written, more mathematics gets figured out, etc.

by asdf on Tue Oct 18th, 2005 at 08:44:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Pffft! Law of physics violation alert! (none / 0)

Whatever the market does, it has to operate within bounds determined by the laws of Physics, in particular thermodynamics. Money doesn't make the world go round, free energy does. And information entropy is not a metaphor, it is a physical phenomenon. Also, what is your dietary daily allowance of bits?

To all those economists out there: is there a source of Leontief Input-Output parameters available on the web, so we can actually put some legs on the argument that the fraction of the GDP that is spent buying energy is not representative of the energy's impact on the economic system?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 18th, 2005 at 08:54:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I doubt trilobytes or dinosaurs found (none / 0)

I don't know why the 14th century plague is relevant. It would have been no consolation to trilobytes or dinosaurs to understand that life thrives and evolution of new species is fastest after a mass extinction.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 18th, 2005 at 09:41:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

time for an economic reset? (none / 1)

There's no law of physics problem here. You could (with a benevolent global dictator) have everybody happily living with a constant amount of food, heat, clothes, etc., and still have an increasing standard of living by increasing the amount of non-material production. Unless you are stuck in the model that studies only the material production of goods as a true "economy."

Alternatively, using another model, the plague is relevant because you can have a constant growth scenario for centuries with a large reset every once in a while. The Roman Empire gave way to the dark ages. The middle ages gave way to the plague. Perhaps we're due for a reset.

That's not to say that it's particularly pleasant to live when the collapse is taking place!

by asdf on Tue Oct 18th, 2005 at 10:05:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: time for an economic reset? (none / 0)

My point is that production of non-material goods still consumes energy, and not at a negligible rate.

I totally agree about "resets". However, if you are going to use resets to argue that most of the time we'll be growing fast, you have to include the resets in the calculation of the average growth rate and not dismiss them as outliers.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 18th, 2005 at 10:59:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: time for an economic reset? (none / 0)

Paging Hari Seldon.

Maybe we can eventually make language a complete impediment to understanding. -Hobbes

by Izzy (izzy at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 18th, 2005 at 05:31:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: time for an economic reset? (none / 0)

Huh?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 18th, 2005 at 05:34:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: time for an economic reset? (none / 0)

Oops. Sorry. Just me trying to be a bit witty. Said (or alleged) "wit" was directed more at the conversation than your specific comment. In the Foundation books, Hari Seldon was the person who invented the mathematical computations which predicted the fall (or reset) of the empire and worked out ways in which to avoid the inevitable "dark ages" and get back to enlightenment as painlessly as possible (iirc).

Maybe we can eventually make language a complete impediment to understanding. -Hobbes

by Izzy (izzy at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 18th, 2005 at 05:45:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: time for an economic reset? (none / 0)

I know, I was just trying to figure out who you thought was channelling Hari Seldon.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 18th, 2005 at 06:12:33 PM EST
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Re: time for an economic reset? (none / 0)

That would be Jerome.

by asdf on Tue Oct 18th, 2005 at 06:19:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: time for an economic reset? (none / 0)

But Jerome was not part of this discussion!

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 18th, 2005 at 06:22:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: time for an economic reset? (none / 0)

And meanwhile, Izzy hangs her head in shame as all hope of "wit" rapidly recedes into the distance...

Aherm. So as I was saying. What the hell was I saying? Did I say channeling? But I didn't... I mean... where is Jerome when we need him anyway?

So I guess speaking of Rome/dark ages and Europe/plague and "resets" sort of put me in mind of patterns, Migeru, and your response that these should be included in the calculations rather than treated as outliers put me in mind of You Know Who. But in a good way!

If we could mathematically predict patterns of group behavior, I'm sure you'd be up to the task! And possibly DoDo. And Jerome could explain it all to us. Unless this is being taken as an insult (which I sincerely do not intend) in which case none of it has anything to do with anything or anybody here and I'm unreservedly apologetic for mentioning it.

Help! Paging... who's a famous, non-insult-invoking diplomat?!? This is all asdf's fault somehow! I'm almost sure of it...

Maybe we can eventually make language a complete impediment to understanding. -Hobbes

by Izzy (izzy at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 18th, 2005 at 06:49:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: time for an economic reset? (none / 0)

I can be an ass sometimes.

Anyway, the "calculation" I had in mind was not a prediction of future behaviour but an analysis of historical data.

I might be persuaded to write a diary about self-organised criticality and what it can teach us about anything from earthquakes to forest fires to blackouts to boom-bust economic cycles. But first KCurie needs to write his promised diary on the 2nd law of thermodynamics.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 19th, 2005 at 06:08:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: time for an economic reset? (none / 0)

Never! And if so, I hate to think what I am most of the time! And I can see now what you meant about historical v. future calculations. I'll look forward to both the diaries and try to refrain from commenting -- goodness knows what stupid thoughts will pop into my head! I'm the opposite of mathematically minded, so most of my thoughts on the subject are inappropriate or irrelevant. I do, however, enjoy reading about it from those who know better. :-)

Maybe we can eventually make language a complete impediment to understanding. -Hobbes

by Izzy (izzy at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 19th, 2005 at 07:05:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: time for an economic reset? (none / 0)

By all means don't refrain from commenting. Anything we write needs to be understandable to the intelligent layperson, that is, you.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Oct 23rd, 2005 at 06:53:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Significant growth over next 5 years (none / 0)

ah! that's what i see too. you could call it a 'virtualisation of pleasure'.
as more and more people expand their brains to enjoy more and more inventive cultural refinements, curiosity begets curiosity, and as we source and digitise all out history, art and philosophies, we weill (sic!) change from homo economicus to homo ludens, and morph our collective social value system from chestbeating, alpha-male, territorial, aquistador, hubristic, aggressive, xenophobic, exclusive, macho, puerile vertical - one lottery winner receives gazillions while the others toil and grind - to a horizontal system where modesty - traditionally the highest virtue in ancient china - is prized, along with merry self-deprecation, sly satire, and with a joy in sharing.

with regard to the diary, it seems very blue-sky, if possible theoretically.

as for coca cola, it's poison. seeing the golden arches straddling every horizon may keep a lot of pension plans pumped, but it makes me feel sad and weary all at once.

counting gdp as an unqualified Good Thing is so yesterday.

in a general way i hope you're right, but as predictions go, this rings jejune and way over-optimistic to me, after months of stirling, bondad, and jerome's missives to mull on!

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Oct 18th, 2005 at 07:18:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Significant growth over next 5 years | 35 comments (35 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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