Anyway, the "calculation" I had in mind was not a prediction of future behaviour but an analysis of historical data.

I might be persuaded to write a diary about self-organised criticality and what it can teach us about anything from earthquakes to forest fires to blackouts to boom-bust economic cycles. But first KCurie needs to write his promised diary on the 2nd law of thermodynamics.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman