House equity withdrawals are drying up. A fredie Mac study quoted in the above note suggests that house equity withdrawals made up 31% od personal consumption expenditures since 2000. That's a big fall in consumption that's coming.

And that graph (from Robert Schiller, the man who coined the expression "irrational exuberance", and then wrote the definitive book about it as the dotcom bubble burst) shows how far things could fall.

In the long run, we're all dead. John Maynard Keynes