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I doubt you can predict five years on. Any chaotic system, as the world economy is, it is, by definition, impossible to predict. Highly non-linear system of multiple variables.

There are so many variables you do not control and probably trajectories diverge exponentially

So, I could argue that there is also a huge chance that global imbalances of debt or increases in the price of oil would produce a mild recession, or maybe a big recession. Or maybe not.

An maybe the US and China will solve their differences regarding the control of Asia, or maybe not.
I could go on and on with a lot of variables you can not control.

Two similar initial conditions can end up in very different places. I would personally bet for a succession of mild recessions and strong recoveries for the next years. Oil, and imbalances would drive the system to a periodic behavior. Recession reduces consumption, redistributes and forces improvement in energy technologies and this investment has easy returns. Growth ensues for some years since it is very easy to save energy at the beginning. Until new fluctuations of oil lead the production below the new base-line obtained, producing another mild depression. I think I can not prove it in any way whatsoever. I also think the same of your prediction. There is no way you can prove it.

A pleasure

I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact. Levi-Strauss, Claude

by kcurie on Sat Oct 15th, 2005 at 05:55:45 PM EST

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